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A declining trend in Indian summer monsoon precipitation (ISMP) in the latter half of the 20th century is a scientifically challenging and societally relevant research issue. Heavy aerosol loading over India is one of the key factors in modulating the ISMP. Using the state-of-the-state-of-the-art chemistry-climate model, ECHAM6-HAMMOZ, the impacts of South Asian anthropogenic sulfate aerosols on the Indian summer monsoon precipitation were investigated against: (1) 2010 La Niña (excess monsoon), (2) 2015 El Niño (deficit monsoon) in comparison to (3) normal monsoon 2016. Sensitivity simulations were designed with 48% enhancement in South Asian SO 2 emissions based on a trend estimated from Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) satellite observations during 2006–2017. The model simulations showed that sulfate aerosols reduce ISMP by 27.5%–43.3 %, while simulations without sulfate loading enhanced ISMP by 23% in 2010 La Niña and reduction by 35% in 2015 El Niño. This paper reports that sulfate aerosols loading over India reduce precipitation by aerosol-induced direct and indirect effects by inducing atmospheric cooling, weakening in the convection, and reduction in moisture transport to Indian landmass. This paper emphasizes the necessity of alternate use of energy to reduce sulfate aerosol emissions to solve water issues in South Asia. [Display omitted] • Sulfate emission reduces Indian summer monsoon precipitation through aerosol-radiation and aerosol-cloud interactions. • Over 27% of the summer monsoon rainfall deficit in a normal year are linked to Asian anthropogenic sulfate emissions. • Sulfate-induced rainfall reduction is the maximum for La Niña year. • SO 2 loading increases atmospheric stability and weakens moisture transport to India. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Every year during the winter and pre-monsoon periods most of the Indian peninsula, Bay of Bengal and the adjoining Indian Ocean are affected by a polluted regional haze, known as the South Asian Winter Haze (SAWH). This article is the first of a series of three papers collectively anticipated at the central idea of retrieving aerosol component type and effective radius of the SAWH by incorporating experimental data of ground-based solar radiometer into Mie theory, and validation by collocated in-situ measurements. The work presented in this paper provides an approach to retrieve optical depths and their spectral curvature for SAWH at a tropical coastal station, Visakhapatnam (17.7°N, 83.3°E). A dataset comprised of 92 wintertime atmospheric optical depths are obtained from spectral extinction measurements of direct solar flux by means of a Multi-Wavelength Solar Radiometer during the period of October 2002 to February 2004. The inter-channel correlations established a linear relation and the airmass conditions specific to this dataset suggested a two-component linear model; the stable and variable components of which are analysed to obtain the mentioned optical parameters. Results indicate that the spectral curvature is best represented by a Lorentz model with a central wavelength of 0.40425±0.02945μm, a width of 0.40382±0.10253μm, a constant of 0.92623±0.33793, and a wavelength independent component of 0.95778±0.15678. Resonance-like structure of the obtained spectral curvature resembles wavelength dependent extinction characteristic of absorbing soot particles; thereby supports the key findings from INDOEX campaign. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

This paper presents the first onboard measurements of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) distributions at super-saturations ( ss ) less than 0.5% (0.2% and 0.4%) and more than 0.5% (0.6% and 0.8%) as a function of prevailing winds during July and August over south to southeastern head-Bay region of Bay of Bengal (BoB). During monsoon season of 2012, the cross equatorial flow (CEF) along the belt 50°N–50°S was towards north and prevailing winds were stronger than normal by 2.6 ms −1 and 5.14 ms −1 respectively. Also, 2 and 5 low-pressure systems were formed during July and August 2012 respectively. Due to the strength of CEF, winds and low-pressure systems, mean value of wind speeds ( U ) observed onboard the ship during August was found to be stronger than that for July by 28%. As a result, mean values of CCN concentrations in August when winds were above 10 ms −1 were higher in magnitude by 9.5%, 15.6%, 13.4%, 12.13% and 11.9% for supersaturations of 0.2%, 0.4%, 0.6%, 0.8% and 1.0% respectively compared to corresponding means of CCN concentration during July when winds were below 10 ms −1 . Wind-driven ( U above 10 ms −1 ) CCN activity is found to be of high CCN concentrations at ss more than 0.5% despite active monsoonal cloud-aerosol interaction in the tropical marine environment. Relationships between CCN concentration and U when winds were above 10 ms −1 are found to be log 10 CCN = 0.057 U + 2.4 and log 10 CCN = 0.047 U + 2.6 at ss of 0.6% (R = 0.43) and 0.8% (R = 0.4) respectively, slopes of which appear to be reasonable climatic regulators for wind-induced CCN activity over south to southeastern head-Bay region of BoB. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper intended to investigate spatio-temporal monotonic trend and shift in concentration of monsoon precipitation across West Bengal, India, by analysing the time series of monthly precipitation from 18 weather stations during the period from 1901 to 2002. In dealing with, the inhomogeneity in the precipitation series, RHtestsV4 software package is used to detect, and adjust for, multiple change points (shifts) that could exist in data series. Finally, the cumulative deviation test was applied at 5% significant level to check the homogeneity (presence of historic changes by cumulative deviations test). Afterward, non-parametric Mann-Kendall (MK) test and Theil-Sen estimator (TSE) was applied to detect of nature and slope of trends; and, Sequential Mann Kendall (SQMK) test was applied for detection of turning point and magnitude of change in trends. Prior to the application of statistical tests, the pre-whitening technique was used to eliminate the effect of autocorrelation in precipitation data series. Four indices- precipitation concentration index (PCI), precipitation concentration degree (PCD), precipitation concentration period (PCP) and fulcrum (centre of gravity) were used to detect precipitation concentration and the spatial pattern in it. The application of the above-mentioned procedures has shown very notable statewide monotonic trend for monsoon precipitation time series. Regional cluster analysis by SQMK found increasing precipitation in mountain and coastal regions in general, except during the non- monsoon seasons. The results show that higher PCI values were mainly observed in South Bengal, whereas lower PCI values were mostly detected in North Bengal. The PCI values are noticeably larger in places where both monsoon total precipitation and span of rainy season are lower. The results of PCP reveal that precipitation in Gangetic Bengal mostly occurs in summer (monsoon season), and the rainy season arrives earlier in North Bengal than South Bengal, whereas the results of PCD also indicate that the precipitation in North Bengal was more dispersed within a year than that in South Bengal. The concentration characteristic of precipitation could be detected by fulcrum analysis, and significant concentration over most of West Bengal was obvious within July month band. Precipitation trend observed in West Bengal is compared with that in Central India (CI) region and comparison of precipitation departure with Indian monsoon and Gangetic Bengal can be explained by forecasting ensemble. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents the long – term observational studies on aerosol optical properties measured at Sri Krishnadevaraya University (SKU) campus (14° 62′ N, 77° 65′ E, 331m asl), Anantapur, in southern India during 2007–2013 using a ground based Multi – Wavelength solar Radiometer (MWR). Seasonal mean values of Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) for the whole study period were observed to be 0.34 ± 0.03, 0.45 ± 0.04, 0.24 ± 0.04, and 0.31 ± 0.03 during the winter, summer, monsoon and post – monsoon, respectively. Annual mean values of Ångström exponent (α) (turbidity coefficient (β)) varied from 0.68 ± 0.25 (0.18 ± 0.03) to 1.1 ± 0.12 (0.32 ± 0.12) during 2007–2013. However, high values of α in the range of 0.8–1.1 were observed during the winter, while low values in the range 0.3–0.7 were noticed during the monsoon. The frequency distribution of AODs during winter in the range of 0.2–0.4 is about 78%, while summer these were shifted from 0.3 to 0.6 around ∼70%, which indicated the dust strongly affects this region. The accumulated frequencies of Ångström exponent (α) less than 1.0 and greater than 1.0 were about 69% and 31%, respectively, occurred in the summer months indicates the dominance of coarse particles. Columnar size distributions, retrieved from the spectral optical depths, in general, show a bimodal log normal distribution in the optically active size range. The seasonal mean effective radius (R eff ) was found to be high in monsoon (∼0.61 μm) and low in winter (∼0.38 μm). The highest mean mass loading values are lies between 475 ± 36 to 769 ± 49 mg m −2 during the summer, whereas the lowest value in the range 204 ± 19 to 278 ± 23 mg m −2 during the monsoon. The difference between α and curvature effect have been studied as a function of AOD on seasonal basis. Finally, to understand the contribution of long range transported aerosols, we have investigated this analysis making use of back trajectories obtained from the HYSPLIT model for different seasons. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Prediction of Indian monsoon is a challenging task due to complex dynamics and variability over the years. Skills of statistical predictors that perform well in a set of years are not as good for others. In this paper, we attempt to identify a set of predictors that have high skills for a cluster of years. A co-clustering algorithm, which extracts groups of years, paired with good predictor sets for those years, is used for this purpose. Weighted ensemble of these predictors are used in final prediction. Results on past 65 years data show that the approach is competitive with state of art techniques. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: In this paper we have studied variability and growth rate of surface observed atmospheric Carbon Dioxide (CO2) concentrations over Cape Rama, west coast of India and its association with rainfall and vegetation over this region. Cape Rama is a maritime site which experiences a seasonal reversal wind pattern receiving air masses having marine (continental) signatures during summer (winter) monsoon season. This study reveals that summer monsoon (JJAS) precipitation and monthly values of atmospheric CO2 concentration during the season are well correlated. Negative correlations are seen with CO2 concentrations of concurrent months of the season as well as subsequent months. However the magnitudes of correlation coefficients are decreased till hot pre-monsoon season (MAM). Annual cycle and interannual variability show negative relationship between CO2 concentration and vegetation over the region. CO2 concentration shows increasing trend and NDVI shows decreasing trend. However, the magnitude of increasing trend of CO2 concentration is higher. Amplitude of decreasing phase of vegetation is higher than the amplitude of increasing phase. Though the results show certain link between CO2 and climate variability, further examination with dense and longer data may be needed to confirm the result. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: The significant role of aerosol–cloud interaction during the large-scale drought producing breaks of 2009 Indian Summer Monsoon is investigated in the present paper. This mega drought had already been attributed to two long breaks, one in June and the other in July-August. While Central India (CI) and northern parts of the country experienced deficient rainfall, the rainfall over the southern Peninsular India (PI) remained close to normal. During the first break in June, which was associated with mid-latitude intrusion of dry air, the Twomey effect (positive aerosol indirect effect – AIE) was a dominant factor inhibiting efficient precipitation over CI region, as compared to that over PI. Moreover, the number of days that experienced significant (at 5% level of significance) positive AIE during the first break was more over CI compared to the same during the second break. The AIE on ice clouds was not as significant as that of the low-clouds. The resulting cloud properties during both break and active phases over CI differ significantly from that over PI for the corresponding periods. The positive AIE mentioned here is attributed to the large-scale deficit of moisture supply to the CI region due to dynamical reasons. However, it is shown that under ample availability of moisture, more aerosols could invigorate deep clouds over specific regions even during the break spells. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Aerosol measurements over a tropical semi-arid site in Anantapur (14.62°N, 77.65°E, 331 m asl), India, provide the variabilities of aerosol characteristics for the period of January 2007–December 2008. The mean values of aerosol optical depth at 500 nm (AOD500 nm) over 2-year period are found to be 0.37 ± 0.11, 0.39 ± 0.13 and 0.30 ± 0.10 during winter, summer and monsoon seasons, respectively. A rather systematic variation is seen with AOD peaking in the month of March, falling off gradually to the lowest value in June and increasing slowly superposed with some modulations, which show a weak secondary peak in October. The mean and standard values of the Ångström exponent, α (turbidity coefficient, β), are found to be 1.06 ± 0.33 (0.17 ± 0.05) during winter, 0.97 ± 0.35 (0.22 ± 0.04) during summer and 0.85 ± 0.26 (0.16 ± 0.06) during monsoon. The frequency distribution of α is relatively broad with two modes for dusty (α < 1) and non-dusty (α > 1) situations. This frequency distribution of α reveals a great dispersion of a values in all seasons thus denoting variability in the aerosol-size distribution. In this study, spectral AOD and Ångström exponent data are analyzed to obtain information about the adequacy of the simple use of the Ångström exponent and its variation for characterizing optical properties of aerosols, and exploring possibilities for a more efficient characterization of them. Using the least-squares fit method, the Ångström parameter, α, is calculated in the spectral interval 380–850 nm, along with coefficients a1 and a2 of the second-order polynomial fit to the plotted logarithm of AOD versus the logarithm of wavelength. The correlations between the coefficients a1 and a2 with months and α are discussed in the paper. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: This paper presents the results of ship cruise and land observations of columnar aerosol characteristics over the Arabian Sea (AS) and at an in-land urban station Pune, in the western part of India, during the pre-monsoon 2006. Aerosol loading is found to decrease significantly from Pune and west coast of India to far away from the Indian west coast over AS. Relative dominance of coarse-mode particles is observed over pristine oceans, while dominance of fine-mode aerosols is noticed under certain occasions. Curvature of multi-spectral AOT variations is also found to be larger over Far AS (FAS) and Mid AS (MAS) regions, where the aerosol loading seems to be very low, compared to that over Coastal AS (CAS) region. Predominance of coarse- and fine-mode aerosols is found over Northern AS (NAS) and Southern AS (SAS) regions, respectively, along the meridional direction of AS. Surface radiative cooling due to aerosols is found to be more intense over CAS and NAS regions. It is shown that the combination of Angstrom exponent (α) and its second order (α′) could delineate aerosol type and loading. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

This paper presents the seasonal mean, rain integral parameters, and gamma parameters at the surface associated with the different precipitating systems over a coastal station Thumba (8.53°N, 76.87°E). The primary datasets consist of Joss-Waldvogel disdrometer (JWD) observations collected during 2007–2015 and 2018 over Thumba. The precipitating cloud systems observed over three seasons (pre-monsoon: March-May, Monsoon: June-September and post-monsoon: October and November) are classified into convective, transition and stratiform rain based on the ratio of mass-weighted mean diameter (D m) and rain rate (R). The results show a distinct difference in raindrop size distribution (DSD) patterns in the convective, transition and stratiform rain types. In general, the mean DSD spectra for convective precipitation is found to be broad compared to that of the transition and stratiform rain types. The DSD spectra in the convective precipitation have relatively higher (smaller) number concentration of large (small) raindrops as compared to other precipitation types, resulting in larger D m values than the other two rain regimes. These differences in DSD for the convective, transition and stratiform resulted in a systematic variation in Z-R relationships. A distinct inverse relationship is found between A and b for convective and stratiform rain types irrespective of seasons. The coefficient A (exponent b) is found to be larger (smaller) for stratiform (convective) rain regime. Out of about 1826 h of total precipitation, stratiform rain is observed for 63% of the time, while convective and transition rain is observed for about 8% and 29% respectively. However, the contribution of stratiform rain is 11% of total rainfall, while that of convective and transition rain are about 55% and 35% respectively, consistent with the earlier studies. • Precipitating clouds are classified into convective, transition and stratiform. • Distinct raindrop size distribution (DSD) spectras observed for three rain types. • Mean DSD spectra for convective rain is broader compared to other two rain types. • Inverse relation found between A and b for convective and stratiform rain types. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]