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Background: In large-scale epidemiology, bloodspot sampling by fingerstick onto filter paper has many advantages, including ease and low costs of collection, processing and transport. We describe the development of an enzyme-linked immunoassay (ELISA) for quantifying insulin from dried blood spots and demonstrate its application in a large trial. Methods: We adapted an existing commercial kit (Mercodia Human Insulin ELISA, 10-1113-01) to quantify insulin from two 3-mm diameter discs (≈6 µL of blood) punched from whole blood standards and from trial samples. Paediatricians collected dried blood spots in a follow-up of 13,879 fasted children aged 11.5 years (interquartile range 11.3–11.8 years) from 31 trial sites across Belarus. We quantified bloodspot insulin levels and examined their distribution by demography and anthropometry. Results: Mean intra-assay (n = 157) coefficients of variation were 15% and 6% for ‘low’ (6.7 mU/L) and ‘high’ (23.1 mU/L) values, respectively; the respective inter-assay values (n = 33) were 23% and 11%. The intraclass correlation coefficient between 50 paired whole bloodspot versus serum samples, collected simultaneously, was 0.90 (95% confidence interval 0.85 to 0.95). Bloodspot insulin was stable for at least 31 months at −80°C, for one week at +30°C and following four freeze-thaw cycles. Paediatricians collected a median of 8 blood spots from 13,487 (97%) children. The geometric mean insulin (log standard deviation) concentrations amongst 12,812 children were 3.0 mU/L (1.1) in boys and 4.0 mU/L (1.0) in girls and were positively associated with pubertal stage, measures of central and peripheral adiposity, height and fasting glucose. Conclusions: Our simple and convenient bloodspot assay is suitable for the measurement of insulin in very small volumes of blood collected on filter paper cards and can be applied to large-scale epidemiology studies of the early-life determinants of circulating insulin.

Introduction: Respondent-driven sampling (RDS) offers a recruitment strategy for hard-to-reach populations. However, RDS faces logistical and theoretical challenges that threaten efficiency and validity in settings worldwide. We present innovative adaptations to conventional RDS to overcome barriers encountered in recruiting a large, representative sample of men who have sex with men (MSM) who travel internationally. Methods: Novel methodological adaptations for the “International Travel Research to Inform Prevention” or “I-TRIP” study were offering participants a choice between electronic and paper coupons referrals for recruitment and modifying the secondary incentives structure from small cash amounts to raffle entries for periodic large cash prize raffle drawings. Staged referral limit increases from 3 to 10 referrals and progressive addition of 70 seeds were also implemented. Results: There were 501 participants enrolled in up to 13 waves of growth. Among participants with a choice of referral methods, 81% selected electronic referrals. Of participants who were recruited electronically, 90% chose to remain with electronic referrals when it was their turn to recruit. The mean number of enrolled referrals was 0.91 for electronic referrals compared to 0.56 for paper coupons. Median referral lag time, i.e., the time interval between when recruiters were given their referrals and when a referred individual enrolled in the study, was 20 days (IQR 10–40) for electronic referrals, 20 days (IQR 8–58) for paper coupons, 20 days (IQR 10–41) for raffle entries and 33 days (IQR 16–148) for small cash incentives. Conclusions: The recruitment of MSM who travel internationally required maximizing known flexible tools of RDS while at the same time necessitating innovations to increase recruitment efficiency. Electronic referrals emerged as a major advantage in recruiting this hard-to-reach population who are of high socio-economic status, geographically diffuse and highly mobile. These enhancements may improve the performance of RDS in target populations with similar characteristics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In a stratified analysis, the results from different strata if homogeneity assumption is met are pooled together to obtain a single summary estimate for the common effect parameter. However, the effect can appear homogeneous across strata using one measure but heterogeneous using another. Consequently, two researchers analyzing the same data can arrive at conflicting conclusions if they use different effect measures. In this paper, the author draws on the sufficient component cause model to develop a stratified-analysis method regarding a particular effect measure, the ‘peril ratio’. When there is no mechanistic interaction between the exposure under study and the stratifying variable (i.e., when they do not work together to complete any sufficient cause), the peril ratio is constant across strata. The author presents formulas for the estimation of such a common peril ratio. Three real data are re-analyzed for illustration. When the data is consistent with peril-ratio homogeneity in a stratified analysis, researchers can use the formulas in this paper to pool the strata. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As a performance measure for a prediction model, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) is insensitive to the addition of strong markers. A number of measures sensitive to performance change have recently been proposed; however, these relative-performance measures may lead to self-contradictory conclusions. This paper examines alternative performance measures for prediction models: the Lorenz curve-based Gini and Pietra indices, and a standardized version of the Brier score, the scaled Brier. Computer simulations are performed in order to study the sensitivity of these measures to performance change when a new marker is added to a baseline model. When the discrimination power of the added marker is concentrated in the gray zone of the baseline model, the AUC and the Gini show minimal performance improvements. The Pietra and the scaled Brier show more significant improvements in the same situation, comparatively. The Pietra and the scaled Brier indices are therefore recommended for prediction model performance measurement, in light of their ease of interpretation, clinical relevance and sensitivity to gray-zone resolving markers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Individual behavioral response to the spreading of an epidemic plays a crucial role in the progression of the epidemic itself. The risk perception induces individuals to adopt a protective behavior, as for instance reducing their social contacts, adopting more restrictive hygienic measures or undergoing prophylaxis procedures. In this paper, starting with a previously developed lattice-gas SIR model, we construct a coupled behavior-disease model for influenza spreading with spontaneous behavioral changes. The focus is on self-initiated behavioral changes that alter the susceptibility to the disease, without altering the contact patterns among individuals. Three different mechanisms of awareness spreading are analyzed: the local spreading due to the presence in the neighborhood of infective individuals; the global spreading due to the news published by the mass media and to educational campaigns implemented at institutional level; the local spreading occurring through the “thought contagion” among aware and unaware individuals. The peculiarity of the present approach is that the awareness spreading model is calibrated on available data on awareness and concern of the population about the risk of contagion. In particular, the model is validated against the A(H1N1) epidemic outbreak in Italy during the season, by making use of the awareness data gathered by the behavioral risk factor surveillance system (PASSI). We find that, increasing the accordance between the simulated awareness spreading and the PASSI data on risk perception, the agreement between simulated and experimental epidemiological data improves as well. Furthermore, we show that, within our model, the primary mechanism to reproduce a realistic evolution of the awareness during an epidemic, is the one due to globally available information. This result highlights how crucial is the role of mass media and educational campaigns in influencing the epidemic spreading of infectious diseases. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We consider the recently introduced edge-based compartmental models (EBCM) for the spread of susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) diseases in networks. These models differ from standard infectious disease models by focusing on the status of a random partner in the population, rather than a random individual. This change in focus leads to simple analytic models for the spread of SIR diseases in random networks with heterogeneous degree. In this paper we extend this approach to handle deviations of the disease or population from the simplistic assumptions of earlier work. We allow the population to have structure due to effects such as demographic features or multiple types of risk behavior. We allow the disease to have more complicated natural history. Although we introduce these modifications in the static network context, it is straightforward to incorporate them into dynamic network models. We also consider serosorting, which requires using dynamic network models. The basic methods we use to derive these generalizations are widely applicable, and so it is straightforward to introduce many other generalizations not considered here. Our goal is twofold: to provide a number of examples generalizing the EBCM method for various different population or disease structures and to provide insight into how to derive such a model under new sets of assumptions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Physical activity is inversely correlated to morbidity and mortality risk. Large cohort studies use wearable accelerometer devices to measure physical activity objectively, providing data potentially relevant to identify different activity patterns and to correlate these to health-related outcome measures. A method to compute relevant characteristics of such data not only with regard to duration and intensity, but also to regularity of activity events, is necessary. The aims of this paper are to propose a new method – the ATLAS index (Activity Types from Long-term Accelerometric Sensor data) – to derive generic measures for distinguishing different characteristic activity phenotypes from accelerometer data, to propose a comprehensive graphical representation, and to conduct a proof-of-concept with long-term measurements from different devices and cohorts. Methods: The ATLAS index consists of the three dimensions regularity (reg), duration (dur) and intensity (int) of relevant activity events identified in long-term accelerometer data. It can be regarded as a 3D vector and represented in a 3D cube graph. 12 exemplary data sets of three different cohort studies with 99,467 minutes of data were chosen for concept validation. Results: Five archetypical activity types are proposed along with their dimensional characteristics (insufficiently active: low reg, int and dur; busy bee: low dur and int, high reg; cardio-active: medium reg, int and dur, endurance athlete: high reg, int and dur; and weekend warrior: high int and dur, low reg). The data sets are displayed in one common graph, indicating characteristic differences in activity patterns. Conclusion: The ATLAS index incorporates the relevant regularity dimension apart from the widely-used measures of duration and intensity. Along with the 3D representation, it allows to compare different activity types in cohort study populations, both visually and computationally using vector distance measures. Further research is necessary to validate the ATLAS index in order to find normative values and group centroids. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Recent focus on earlier detection of pathogen introduction in human and animal populations has led to the development of surveillance systems based on automated monitoring of health data. Real- or near real-time monitoring of pre-diagnostic data requires automated classification of records into syndromes–syndromic surveillance–using algorithms that incorporate medical knowledge in a reliable and efficient way, while remaining comprehensible to end users. Methods: This paper describes the application of two of machine learning (Naïve Bayes and Decision Trees) and rule-based methods to extract syndromic information from laboratory test requests submitted to a veterinary diagnostic laboratory. Results: High performance (F1-macro = 0.9995) was achieved through the use of a rule-based syndrome classifier, based on rule induction followed by manual modification during the construction phase, which also resulted in clear interpretability of the resulting classification process. An unmodified rule induction algorithm achieved an F1-micro score of 0.979 though this fell to 0.677 when performance for individual classes was averaged in an unweighted manner (F1-macro), due to the fact that the algorithm failed to learn 3 of the 16 classes from the training set. Decision Trees showed equal interpretability to the rule-based approaches, but achieved an F1-micro score of 0.923 (falling to 0.311 when classes are given equal weight). A Naïve Bayes classifier learned all classes and achieved high performance (F1-micro = 0.994 and F1-macro = .955), however the classification process is not transparent to the domain experts. Conclusion: The use of a manually customised rule set allowed for the development of a system for classification of laboratory tests into syndromic groups with very high performance, and high interpretability by the domain experts. Further research is required to develop internal validation rules in order to establish automated methods to update model rules without user input. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Graphical representation of data is one of the most easily comprehended forms of explanation. The current study describes a simple visualization tool which may allow greater understanding of medical and epidemiological data. Method: We propose a simple tool for visualization of data, known as a “quilt plot”, that provides an alternative to presenting large volumes of data as frequency tables. Data from the Australian Needle and Syringe Program survey are used to illustrate “quilt plots”. Conclusion: Visualization of large volumes of data using “quilt plots” enhances interpretation of medical and epidemiological data. Such intuitive presentations are particularly useful for the rapid assessment of problems in the data which cannot be readily identified by manual review. We recommend that, where possible, “quilt plots” be used along with traditional quantitative assessments of the data as an explanatory data analysis tool. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Disease control is of paramount importance in public health, with infectious disease extinction as the ultimate goal. Although diseases may go extinct due to random loss of effective contacts where the infection is transmitted to new susceptible individuals, the time to extinction in the absence of control may be prohibitively long. Intervention controls are typically defined on a deterministic schedule. In reality, however, such policies are administered as a random process, while still possessing a mean period. Here, we consider the effect of randomly distributed intervention as disease control on large finite populations. We show explicitly how intervention control, based on mean period and treatment fraction, modulates the average extinction times as a function of population size and rate of infection spread. In particular, our results show an exponential improvement in extinction times even though the controls are implemented using a random Poisson distribution. Finally, we discover those parameter regimes where random treatment yields an exponential improvement in extinction times over the application of strictly periodic intervention. The implication of our results is discussed in light of the availability of limited resources for control. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The objectives of this paper are to predict life years lost associated with obesity-related diseases (ORDs) for U.S. non-smoking adults, and to examine the relationship between those ORDs and mortality. Data from the National Health Interview Survey, 1997–2000, were used. We employed mixed proportional hazard models to estimate the association between those ORDs and mortality and used simulations to project life years lost associated with the ORDs. We found that obesity-attributable comorbidities are associated with large decreases in life years and increases in mortality rates. The life years lost associated with ORDs is more marked for younger adults than older adults, for blacks than whites, for males than females, and for the more obese than the less obese. Using U.S. non-smoking adults aged 40 to 49 years as an example to illustrate percentage of the life years lost associated with ORDs, we found that the mean life years lost associated with ORDs for U.S. non-smoking black males aged 40 to 49 years with a body mass index above 40 kg/m2 was 5.43 years, which translates to a 7.5% reduction in total life years. White males of the same age range and same degree of obesity lost 5.23 life years on average – a 6.8% reduction in total life years, followed by black females (5.04 years, a 6.5% reduction in life years), and white females (4.7 years, a 5.8% reduction in life years). Overall, ORDs increased chances of dying and lessened life years by 0.2 to 11.7 years depending on gender, race, BMI classification, and age. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Genotyping of Klebsiella pneumoniae is indispensable for management of nosocomial infections, monitoring of emerging strains –including extended-spectrum beta-lactamase (ESBL) producers-, and general epidemiology. Such objectives require a high-resolution genotyping method with a fixed scheme that allows (1) long-term retrospective and prospective assessment, (2) objective result readout and (3) library storage for database development and exchangeable results. We have developed a multiple-locus variable number tandem repeat analysis (MLVA) using a single-tube fluorescently primed multiplex PCR for 8 Variable Number Tandem Repeats (VNTRs) and automated fragment size analysis. The type allocation scheme was optimized using 224 K. pneumoniae clinical isolates, which yielded 101 MLVA types. The method was compared to the gold standard multilocus sequence typing (MLST) using a subset of these clinical isolates (n = 95) and found to be highly concordant, with at least as high a resolution but with considerably less hands-on time. Our results position this MLVA scheme as an appropriate, high-throughput and relatively low-cost tool for K. pneumoniae epidemiology. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: We investigated the relationship between average monthly temperature and the most common clinical pathogens causing infections in intensive care patients. Methods: A prospective unit-based study in 73 German intensive care units located in 41 different hospitals and 31 different cities with total 188,949 pathogen isolates (102,377 Gram-positives and 86,572 Gram-negatives) from 2001 to 2012. We estimated the relationship between the number of clinical pathogens per month and the average temperature in the month of isolation and in the month prior to isolation while adjusting for confounders and long-term trends using time series analysis. Adjusted incidence rate ratios for temperature parameters were estimated based on generalized estimating equation models which account for clustering effects. Results: The incidence density of Gram-negative pathogens was 15% (IRR 1.15, 95%CI 1.10–1.21) higher at temperatures ≥20°C than at temperatures below 5°C. E. cloacae occurred 43% (IRR = 1.43; 95%CI 1.31–1.56) more frequently at high temperatures, A. baumannii 37% (IRR = 1.37; 95%CI 1.11–1.69), S. maltophilia 32% (IRR = 1.32; 95%CI 1.12–1.57), K. pneumoniae 26% (IRR = 1.26; 95%CI 1.13–1.39), Citrobacter spp. 19% (IRR = 1.19; 95%CI 0.99–1.44) and coagulase-negative staphylococci 13% (IRR = 1.13; 95%CI 1.04–1.22). By contrast, S. pneumoniae 35% (IRR = 0.65; 95%CI 0.50–0.84) less frequently isolated at high temperatures. For each 5°C increase, we observed a 3% (IRR = 1.03; 95%CI 1.02–1.04) increase of Gram-negative pathogens. This increase was highest for A. baumannii with 8% (IRR = 1.08; 95%CI 1.05–1.12) followed by K. pneumoniae, Citrobacter spp. and E. cloacae with 7%. Conclusion: Clinical pathogens vary by incidence density with temperature. Significant higher incidence densities of Gram-negative pathogens were observed during summer whereas S. pneumoniae peaked in winter. There is increasing evidence that different seasonality due to physiologic changes underlies host susceptibility to different bacterial pathogens. Even if the underlying mechanisms are not yet clear, the temperature-dependent seasonality of pathogens has implications for infection control and study design. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Bovine tuberculosis is a bacterial disease caused by Mycobacterium bovis in livestock and wildlife with hosts that include Eurasian badgers (Meles meles), brushtail possum (Trichosurus vulpecula), and white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus). Risk-assessment efforts in Michigan have been initiated on farms to minimize interactions of cattle with wildlife hosts but research on M. bovis on cattle farms has not investigated the spatial context of disease epidemiology. To incorporate spatially explicit data, initial likelihood of infection probabilities for cattle farms tested for M. bovis, prevalence of M. bovis in white-tailed deer, deer density, and environmental variables for each farm were modeled in a Bayesian hierarchical framework. We used geo-referenced locations of 762 cattle farms that have been tested for M. bovis, white-tailed deer prevalence, and several environmental variables that may lead to long-term survival and viability of M. bovis on farms and surrounding habitats (i.e., soil type, habitat type). Bayesian hierarchical analyses identified deer prevalence and proportion of sandy soil within our sampling grid as the most supported model. Analysis of cattle farms tested for M. bovis identified that for every 1% increase in sandy soil resulted in an increase in odds of infection by 4%. Our analysis revealed that the influence of prevalence of M. bovis in white-tailed deer was still a concern even after considerable efforts to prevent cattle interactions with white-tailed deer through on-farm mitigation and reduction in the deer population. Cattle farms test positive for M. bovis annually in our study area suggesting that the potential for an environmental source either on farms or in the surrounding landscape may contributing to new or re-infections with M. bovis. Our research provides an initial assessment of potential environmental factors that could be incorporated into additional modeling efforts as more knowledge of deer herd factors and cattle farm prevalence is documented. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Physical inactivity, ambient air pollution and obesity are modifiable risk factors for non-communicable diseases, with the first accounting for 10% of premature deaths worldwide. Although community level interventions may target each simultaneously, research on the relationship between these risk factors is lacking. Objectives: After comparing spatial interpolation methods to determine the best predictor for particulate matter (PM2.5; PM10) and ozone (O3) exposures throughout the U.S., we evaluated the cross-sectional association of ambient air pollution with leisure-time physical inactivity among adults. Methods: In this cross-sectional study, we assessed leisure-time physical inactivity using individual self-reported survey data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's 2011 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System. These data were combined with county-level U.S. Environmental Protection Agency air pollution exposure estimates using two interpolation methods (Inverse Distance Weighting and Empirical Bayesian Kriging). Finally, we evaluated whether those exposed to higher levels of air pollution were less active by performing logistic regression, adjusting for demographic and behavioral risk factors, and after stratifying by body weight category. Results: With Empirical Bayesian Kriging air pollution values, we estimated a statistically significant 16–35% relative increase in the odds of leisure-time physical inactivity per exposure class increase of PM2.5 in the fully adjusted model across the normal weight respondents (p-value<0.0001). Evidence suggested a relationship between the increasing dose of PM2.5 exposure and the increasing odds of physical inactivity. Conclusions: In a nationally representative, cross-sectional sample, increased community level air pollution is associated with reduced leisure-time physical activity particularly among the normal weight. Although our design precludes a causal inference, these results provide additional evidence that air pollution should be investigated as an environmental determinant of inactivity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aims: Hepatic steatosis has been related to insulin resistance and increased diabetes risk. We assessed whether combination of diabetes risk factors, evaluated by the Finnish Diabetes Risk Score, was associated with risk of hepatic steatosis in an apparently healthy Chinese population. Research Design and Methods: The study samples were from a community-based health examination survey in central China. In total 1,780 men and women (18–64 y) were included in the final analyses. Hepatic steatosis was diagnosed by ultrasonography. We created combination of diabetes risk factors score on basis of age, Body Mass Index, waist circumference, physical activity at least 4 h a week, daily consumption of fruits, berries or vegetables, history of antihypertensive drug treatment, history of high blood glucose. The total risk score is a simple sum of the individual weights, and values range from 0 to 20. Results: Hepatic steatosis was present 18% in the total population. In multivariate models, the odds ratios of hepatic steatosis were 1.20 (95%CI 1.15–1.25) in men and 1.25 (95%CI 1.14–1.37) in women by each unit increase in the combination of diabetes risk factors score, after adjustment for blood pressure, liver enzymes, plasma lipids, and fasting glucose. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for hepatic steatosis was 0.78 (95%CI 0.76–0.80), 0.76 in men (95%CI 0.74–0.78) and 0.83 (95%CI 0.79–0.87) in women. Conclusions: Our data suggest that combination of major diabetes risk factors was significantly related to risk of hepatic steatosis in Chinese adults. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: Development and validation of a selective and sensitive LCMS method for the determination of methotrexate polyglutamates in dried blood spots (DBS). Methods: DBS samples [spiked or patient samples] were prepared by applying blood to Guthrie cards which was then dried at room temperature. The method utilised 6-mm disks punched from the DBS samples (equivalent to approximately 12 µl of whole blood). The simple treatment procedure was based on protein precipitation using perchloric acid followed by solid phase extraction using MAX cartridges. The extracted sample was chromatographed using a reversed phase system involving an Atlantis T3-C18 column (3 µm, 2.1×150 mm) preceded by Atlantis guard column of matching chemistry. Analytes were subjected to LCMS analysis using positive electrospray ionization. Key Results: The method was linear over the range 5–400 nmol/L. The limits of detection and quantification were 1.6 and 5 nmol/L for individual polyglutamates and 1.5 and 4.5 nmol/L for total polyglutamates, respectively. The method has been applied successfully to the determination of DBS finger-prick samples from 47 paediatric patients and results confirmed with concentrations measured in matched RBC samples using conventional HPLC-UV technique. Conclusions and Clinical Relevance: The methodology has a potential for application in a range of clinical studies (e.g. pharmacokinetic evaluations or medication adherence assessment) since it is minimally invasive and easy to perform, potentially allowing parents to take blood samples at home. The feasibility of using DBS sampling can be of major value for future clinical trials or clinical care in paediatric rheumatology. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Little is known about patterns of physical activity engaged in by youth after they immigrate to a new country. This study aims to investigate relationships between immigrant generation and ethnicity with physical activity, and to determine if the relationship between immigrant generation and physical activity was modified by ethnicity. Methods: The data sources were Cycle 6 (2009–2010) of the Canadian Health Behaviour in School-Aged Children Study and the 2006 Canada Census of Population. Participants (weighted n = 23,124) were young people from grades 6–10 in 436 schools. Students were asked where they were born, how long ago they moved to Canada, their ethnicity, and how many days a week they accumulated at least 60 minutes of moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA). Results: Youth born outside of Canada were less likely to be active than peers born in Canada; 11% vs 15% reported 7 days/week of at least 60 minutes of MVPA (p = .001). MVPA increased with time since immigration. Compared to Canadian-born youth, youth who immigrated within the last 1–2 years were less likely to get sufficient MVPA on 4–6 days/week (odds ratio: 0.66, 95% confidence interval: 0.53–0.82) and 7 days/week (0.62; 0.43–0.89). East and South-East Asian youth were less active, regardless of time since immigration: 4–6 days/week (0.67; 0.58–0.79) and 7 days/week (0.37; 0.29–0.48). Conclusion: Time since immigration and ethnicity were associated with MVPA among Canadian youth. Mechanisms by which these differences occur need to be uncovered in order to identify barriers to physical activity participation among youth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Globally, incidence of Neisseria gonorrhoeae infection is once again the highest of the bacterial sexually transmitted infections. The bacterium can produce serious complications in those infected, and emerging resistance to third generation cephalosporins could usher in an era of potentially untreatable gonorrhea. This research aimed to identify risk factors for antibiotic resistant gonorrhea infection among clients at a Shanghai sexually transmitted infection clinic over two time periods, 2004–2005 and 2008–2011. Demographic and risk factor behavior data, and biological samples for antimicrobial resistance analysis, were collected. Statistical models were built to identify risk factors associated with probable resistance to ceftriaxone and resistance to penicillin and tetracycline. High levels of ciprofloxacin resistance (98%) in our sample precluded examining its risk factors; all isolates were susceptible to spectinomycin. Overall (P<0.001), chromosomal (P<0.001), and plasmid-mediated (P = 0.01) penicillin resistance decreased from the first to second period of the study. For tetracycline, chromosomal resistance decreased (P = 0.01) and plasmid-mediated resistance increased (P<0.001) between the first and second periods of study. In multi-level multivariable regression models, male gender (P = 0.03) and older age (P = 0.01) were associated with increased minimum inhibitory concentrations to ceftriaxone. Male gender (P = 0.03) and alcohol use (P = 0.02) were associated with increased odds of overall tetracycline resistance. Male gender was associated with increased odds of chromosomally-mediated tetracycline resistance (P = 0.04), and alcohol use was associated with increased odds of plasmid-mediated tetracycline resistance (P = 0.02). Additionally, individuals in middle-salary categories were found to have lower odds of plasmid-mediated resistance to tetracycline compared with those in the lowest salary category (P≤0.02). This study is one of the first to use multilevel analysis to consider the association between risk factors for gonorrhea infections and mechanisms of resistance to individual antibiotics. Such information is urgently needed to combat the growing threat of untreatable gonorrhea. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Approximately one-third of patients with multiple sclerosis (MS) are unresponsive to, or intolerant of, interferon (IFN) therapy, prompting a switch to other disease-modifying therapies. Clinical outcomes of switching therapy are unknown. This retrospective study assessed differences in relapse rates among patients with MS switching from IFN to fingolimod or glatiramer acetate (GA) in a real-world setting. Methods: US administrative claims data from the PharMetrics Plus™ database were used to identify patients with MS who switched from IFN to fingolimod or GA between October 1, 2010 and March 31, 2012. Patients were matched 1∶1 using propensity scores within strata (number of pre-index relapses) on demographic (e.g. age and gender) and disease (e.g. timing of pre-index relapse, comorbidities and symptoms) characteristics. A claims-based algorithm was used to identify relapses while patients were persistent with therapy over 360 days post-switch. Differences in both the probability of experiencing a relapse and the annualized relapse rate (ARR) while persistent with therapy were assessed. Results: The matched sample population contained 264 patients (n = 132 in each cohort). Before switching, 33.3% of patients in both cohorts had experienced at least one relapse. During the post-index persistence period, the proportion of patients with at least one relapse was lower in the fingolimod cohort (12.9%) than in the GA cohort (25.0%), and ARRs were lower with fingolimod (0.19) than with GA (0.51). Patients treated with fingolimod had a 59% lower probability of relapse (odds ratio, 0.41; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.21–0.80; p = 0.0091) and 62% fewer relapses per year (rate ratio, 0.38; 95% CI, 0.21–0.68; p = 0.0013) compared with those treated with GA. Conclusions: In a real-world setting, patients with MS who switched from IFNs to fingolimod were significantly less likely to experience relapses than those who switched to GA. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Amid numerous outbreaks of hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) in Asia over the past decade, studies on spatio-temporal clustering are limited. Without this information the distribution of severe cases assumed to be sporadic. We analyzed surveillance data with onset dates between 1 May 2008 to 31 October 2013 with the aim to document the spatio-temporal clustering of HFMD cases and severe cases at the county level. Methods: Purely temporal and purely spatial descriptive analyses were done. These were followed by a space-time scan statistic for the whole study period and by year to detect the high risk clusters based on a discrete Poisson model. Results: The annual incidence rate of HFMD in Guangxi increased whereas the severe cases peaked in 2010 and 2012. EV71 and CoxA16 were alternating viruses. Both HFMD cases and severe cases had a seasonal peak in April to July. The spatio-temporal cluster of HFMD cases were mainly detected in the northeastern, central and southwestern regions, among which three clusters were observed in Nanning, Liuzhou, Guilin city and their neighbouring areas lasting from 1.2 to 2.5 years. The clusters of severe cases were less consistent in location and included around 40–70% of all severe cases in each year. Conclusions: Both HFMD cases and severe cases occur in spatio-temporal clusters. The continuous epidemic in Nanning, Liuzhou, Guilin cities and their neighbouring areas and the clusters of severe cases indicate the need for further intensive surveillance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Frailty is related to adverse outcomes in the elderly. However, current status and clinical significance of frailty have not been evaluated for the Korean elderly population. We aimed to investigate the usefulness of established frailty criteria for community-dwelling Korean elderly. We also tried to develop and validate a new frailty index based on a multidimensional model. Methods: We studied 693 participants of the Korean Longitudinal Study on Health and Aging (KLoSHA). We developed a new frailty index (KLoSHA Frailty Index, KFI) and compared predictability of it with the established frailty indexes from the Cardiovascular Health Study (CHS) and Study of Osteoporotic Fracture (SOF). Mortality, hospitalization, and functional decline were evaluated. Results: The prevalence of frailty was 9.2% (SOF index), 13.2% (CHS index), and 15.6% (KFI). The criteria from CHS and KFI correlated with each other, but SOF did not correlate with KFI. During the follow-up period (5.6±0.9 years), 97 participants (14.0%) died. Frailty defined by KFI predicted mortality better than CHS index (c-index: 0.713 and 0.596, respectively; p<0.001, better for KFI). In contrast, frailty by SOF index was not related to mortality. The KFI showed better predictability for following functional decline than CHS index (area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve was 0.937 for KFI and 0.704 for CHS index, p = 0.001). However, the SOF index could not predict subsequent functional decline. Frailty by the KFI (OR = 2.13, 95% CI 1.04–4.35) and CHS index (OR = 2.24, 95% CI 1.05–4.76) were associated with hospitalization. In contrast, frailty by the SOF index was not correlated with hospitalization (OR = 1.43, 95% CI 0.68–3.01). Conclusion: Prevalence of frailty was higher in Korea compared to previous studies in other countries. A novel frailty index (KFI), which includes domains of comprehensive geriatric assessment, is a valid criterion for the evaluation and prediction of frailty in the Korean elderly population. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Removable dentures are subject to plaque and/or staining problems. Denture hygiene habits and risk factors differ among countries and regions. The aims of this study were to assess hygiene habits and denture plaque and staining risk factors in Chinese removable denture wearers aged >40 years in Xi’an through multiple logistic regression analysis (MLRA). Methods: Questionnaires were administered to 222 patients whose removable dentures were examined clinically to assess wear status and levels of plaque and staining. Univariate analyses were performed to identify potential risk factors for denture plaque/staining. MLRA was performed to identify significant risk factors. Results: Brushing (77.93%) was the most prevalent cleaning method in the present study. Only 16.4% of patients regularly used commercial cleansers. Most (81.08%) patients removed their dentures overnight. MLRA indicated that potential risk factors for denture plaque were the duration of denture use (reference, ≤0.5 years; 2.1–5 years: OR = 4.155, P = 0.001; >5 years: OR = 7.238, P<0.001) and cleaning method (reference, chemical cleanser; running water: OR = 7.081, P = 0.010; brushing: OR = 3.567, P = 0.005). Potential risk factors for denture staining were female gender (OR = 0.377, P = 0.013), smoking (OR = 5.471, P = 0.031), tea consumption (OR = 3.957, P = 0.002), denture scratching (OR = 4.557, P = 0.036), duration of denture use (reference, ≤0.5 years; 2.1–5 years: OR = 7.899, P = 0.001; >5 years: OR = 27.226, P<0.001), and cleaning method (reference, chemical cleanser; running water: OR = 29.184, P<0.001; brushing: OR = 4.236, P = 0.007). Conclusion: Denture hygiene habits need further improvement. An understanding of the risk factors for denture plaque and staining may provide the basis for preventive efforts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Several studies conducted in Northeast Tanzania have documented declines in malaria transmission even before interventions were scaled up. One explanation for these reductions may be the changes in socio-environmental conditions associated with economic development, and in particular improvements in housing construction. Objective: This analysis seeks to identify (1) risk factors for malaria incidence among young children and (2) household and environmental factors associated with mosquito vector numbers collected in the child’s sleeping area. Both analyses focus on housing construction quality as a key determinant. Methodology: For 435 children enrolled in a larger trial of intermittent preventive treatment for malaria in infants in the Korogwe District in Tanga, Northeastern Tanzania, detailed information on their dwelling characteristics were collected in the last year of the trial. Principal components analysis was used to construct an index of housing structure quality and converted to quintile units for regression analysis. Univariate and multivariate random effects negative binomial regressions were used to predict risk factors for child malaria incidence and the mean total number of indoor female Anopheles gambiae and funestus mosquitoes collected per household across three occasions. Findings: Building materials have substantially improved in Korogwe over time. Multivariate regressions showed that residing in rural areas (versus urban) increased malaria incidence rates by over three-fold and mean indoor female A. gambiae and funestus numbers by nearly two-fold. Compared to those residing in the lowest quality houses, children residing in the highest quality houses had one-third lower malaria incidence rates, even when wealth and rural residence were controlled for. Living in the highest quality houses reduced vector numbers while having cattle near the house significantly increased them. Conclusions: Results corroborate findings from other studies that show associations between malaria incidence and housing quality; associations were concentrated amongst the highest quality houses. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives: To compare physical activity (PA) subcomponents from EPIC Physical Activity Questionnaire (EPAQ2) and combined heart rate and movement sensing in older adults. Methods: Participants aged 60–64y from the MRC National Survey of Health and Development in Great Britain completed EPAQ2, which assesses self-report PA in 4 domains (leisure time, occupation, transportation and domestic life) during the past year and wore a combined sensor for 5 consecutive days. Estimates of PA energy expenditure (PAEE), sedentary behaviour, light (LPA) and moderate-to-vigorous PA (MVPA) were obtained from EPAQ2 and combined sensing and compared. Complete data were available in 1689 participants (52% women). Results: EPAQ2 estimates of PAEE and MVPA were higher than objective estimates and sedentary time and LPA estimates were lower [bias (95% limits of agreement) in men and women were 32.3 (−61.5 to 122.6) and 29.0 (−39.2 to 94.6) kJ/kg/day for PAEE; −4.6 (−10.6 to 1.3) and −6.0 (−10.9 to −1.0) h/day for sedentary time; −171.8 (−454.5 to 110.8) and −60.4 (−367.5 to 246.6) min/day for LPA; 91.1 (−159.5 to 341.8) and 55.4 (−117.2 to 228.0) min/day for MVPA]. There were significant positive correlations between all self-reported and objectively assessed PA subcomponents (rho  = 0.12 to 0.36); the strongest were observed for MVPA (rho = 0.30 men; rho = 0.36 women) and PAEE (rho = 0.26 men; rho = 0.25 women). Conclusion: EPAQ2 produces higher estimates of PAEE and MVPA and lower estimates of sedentary and LPA than objective assessment. However, both methodologies rank individuals similarly, suggesting that EPAQ2 may be used in etiological studies in this population. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Variable selection is an important step in building a multivariate regression model for which several methods and statistical packages are available. A comprehensive approach for variable selection in complex multivariate regression analyses within HIV cohorts is explored by utilizing both epidemiological and biostatistical procedures. Methods: Three different methods for variable selection were illustrated in a study comparing survival time between subjects in the Department of Defense’s National History Study and the Atlanta Veterans Affairs Medical Center’s HIV Atlanta VA Cohort Study. The first two methods were stepwise selection procedures, based either on significance tests (Score test), or on information theory (Akaike Information Criterion), while the third method employed a Bayesian argument (Bayesian Model Averaging). Results: All three methods resulted in a similar parsimonious survival model. Three of the covariates previously used in the multivariate model were not included in the final model suggested by the three approaches. When comparing the parsimonious model to the previously published model, there was evidence of less variance in the main survival estimates. Conclusions: The variable selection approaches considered in this study allowed building a model based on significance tests, on an information criterion, and on averaging models using their posterior probabilities. A parsimonious model that balanced these three approaches was found to provide a better fit than the previously reported model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: To assess the validity and reproducibility of food and nutrient intake estimated with the electronic diet history of ENRICA (DH-E), which collects information on numerous aspects of the Spanish diet. Methods: The validity of food and nutrient intake was estimated using Pearson correlation coefficients between the DH-E and the mean of seven 24-hour recalls collected every 2 months over the previous year. The reproducibility was estimated using intraclass correlation coefficients between two DH-E made one year apart. Results: The correlations coefficients between the DH-E and the mean of seven 24-hour recalls for the main food groups were cereals (r = 0.66), meat (r = 0.66), fish (r = 0.42), vegetables (r = 0.62) and fruits (r = 0.44). The mean correlation coefficient for all 15 food groups considered was 0.53. The correlations for macronutrients were: energy (r = 0.76), proteins (r = 0.58), lipids (r = 0.73), saturated fat (r = 0.73), monounsaturated fat (r = 0.59), polyunsaturated fat (r = 0.57), and carbohydrates (r = 0.66). The mean correlation coefficient for all 41 nutrients studied was 0.55. The intraclass correlation coefficient between the two DH-E was greater than 0.40 for most foods and nutrients. Conclusions: The DH-E shows good validity and reproducibility for estimating usual intake of foods and nutrients. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Vaccination is one of the most efficient ways to control the spread of infectious diseases. Simulations are now widely used to assess how vaccination can limit disease spread as well as mitigate morbidity or mortality in susceptible populations. However, field studies investigating how much vaccines decrease the velocity of epizootic wave-fronts during outbreaks are rare. This study aimed at investigating the effect of vaccination on the propagation of bluetongue, a vector-borne disease of ruminants. We used data from the 2008 bluetongue virus serotype 1 (BTV-1) epizootic of southwest France. As the virus was newly introduced in this area, natural immunity of livestock was absent. This allowed determination of the role of vaccination in changing the velocity of bluetongue spread while accounting for environmental factors that possibly influenced it. The average estimated velocity across the country despite restriction on animal movements was 5.4 km/day, which is very similar to the velocity of spread of the bluetongue virus serotype 8 epizootic in France also estimated in a context of restrictions on animal movements. Vaccination significantly reduced the propagation velocity of BTV-1. In comparison to municipalities with no vaccine coverage, the velocity of BTV-1 spread decreased by 1.7 km/day in municipalities with immunized animals. For the first time, the effect of vaccination has been quantified using data from a real epizootic whilst accounting for environmental factors known to modify the velocity of bluetongue spread. Our findings emphasize the importance of vaccination in limiting disease spread across natural landscape. Finally, environmental factors, specifically those related to vector abundance and activity, were found to be good predictors of the velocity of BTV-1 spread, indicating that these variables need to be adequately accounted for when evaluating the role of vaccination on bluetongue spread. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: “A Body Shape Index” (ABSI) is a recently proposed index that standardizes waist circumference for body mass index (BMI) and height. This study aims to: (a) examine if the ABSI scaling exponents for standardizing waist circumference for BMI and height are valid in middle-aged and older Indonesian population, and (b) compare the association between incident hypertension and ABSI and other anthropometric measures. Methods and Findings: The Indonesian Family Life Survey Wave 3 measured anthropometric variables and blood pressure of 8255 adults aged between 40 to 85 years in 2000. The relationship between two anthropometric quantities, e.g. weight (w) and height (h), can be expressed as the power law-equivalent , where p = 2 is the scaling exponent in the derivation of the BMI and can be estimated by linear regression analysis. This was extended to the regression analysis of the log-transformed waist circumference, weight and height to establish the scaling exponents in the ABSI. The values for men were similar to those developed by the previous American study, which were 2/3 (BMI) and 1/2 (height). Those for women were somewhat smaller, at 3/5 (BMI) and 1/5 (height). The original (American) ABSI leads to mild negative correlation with BMI (−0.14) and height (−0.12) in the female population. Analysis of the development of hypertension between Waves 3 and 4 (average interval 7.5 years) in relation to ABSI measured at Wave 3 showed stronger association if the locally derived (Indonesian) scaling exponents were used. However, both versions of the ABSI were less associated with incident hypertension than waist circumference and BMI. Conclusions: The values for the scaling exponents for ABSI are roughly similar between the American population and the middle-aged and older Indonesian population, although larger discrepancy was found in women. The ABSI is less associated with incident hypertension than waist circumference and BMI. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Injuries are a growing public health concern in China, accounting for more than 30% of all Person Years of Life Lost (PYLL) due to premature mortality. This study analyzes the trend and disease burden of injury deaths in Chinese population from 2004 to 2010, using data from the National Disease Surveillance Points (DSPs) system, as injury deaths are classified based on the International Classification of Disease-10th Revision (ICD-10). We observed that injury death accounted for nearly 10% of all deaths in China throughout the period 2004–2010, and the injury mortality rates were higher in males than those in females, and higher in rural areas than in urban areas. Traffic crashes (33.79–38.47% of all injury deaths) and suicides (16.20–22.01%) were the two leading causes of injury deaths. Alarmingly, suicide surpassed traffic crashes as the leading cause of injury mortality in rural females, yet adults aged 65 and older suffered the greatest number of fatal falls (20,701 deaths, 2004–2010). The burden of injury among men (72.11%) was about three times more than that of women's (28.89%). This study provides indispensible evidence that China Authority needs to improve the surveillance and deterrence of three major types of injuries: Traffic-related injury deaths should be targeted for injury prevention activities in all population, people aged 65+ should be encouraged to take individual fall precautions, and prevention of suicidal behavior in rural females should be another key priority for the government of China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Accelerometers are designed to measure plausible human activity, however extremely high count values (EHCV) have been recorded in large-scale studies. Using population data, we develop methodological principles for establishing an EHCV threshold, propose a threshold to define EHCV in the ActiGraph GT1M, determine occurrences of EHCV in a large-scale study, identify device-specific error values, and investigate the influence of varying EHCV thresholds on daily vigorous PA (VPA). Methods: We estimated quantiles to analyse the distribution of all accelerometer positive count values obtained from 9005 seven-year old children participating in the UK Millennium Cohort Study. A threshold to identify EHCV was derived by differentiating the quantile function. Data were screened for device-specific error count values and EHCV, and a sensitivity analysis conducted to compare daily VPA estimates using three approaches to accounting for EHCV. Results: Using our proposed threshold of ≥ 11,715 counts/minute to identify EHCV, we found that only 0.7% of all non-zero counts measured in MCS children were EHCV; in 99.7% of these children, EHCV comprised < 1% of total non-zero counts. Only 11 MCS children (0.12% of sample) returned accelerometers that contained negative counts; out of 237 such values, 211 counts were equal to −32,768 in one child. The medians of daily minutes spent in VPA obtained without excluding EHCV, and when using a higher threshold (≥19,442 counts/minute) were, respectively, 6.2% and 4.6% higher than when using our threshold (6.5 minutes; p<0.0001). Conclusions: Quality control processes should be undertaken during accelerometer fieldwork and prior to analysing data to identify monitors recording error values and EHCV. The proposed threshold will improve the validity of VPA estimates in children’s studies using the ActiGraph GT1M by ensuring only plausible data are analysed. These methods can be applied to define appropriate EHCV thresholds for different accelerometer models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: To investigate the relationship between breastfeeding and snoring in childhood. Methods: In a cohort of children with a family history of asthma who were recruited antenatally we prospectively recorded data on infant feeding practices throughout the first year of life. Snoring status and witnessed sleep apnea were measured at age 8 years by parent-completed questionnaire. Associations were estimated by logistic regression with, and without, adjustment for sets of confounders designed to exclude biasing effects. Results: Habitual snoring was reported in 18.8% of the sample, and witnessed apnea in 2.7%. Any breastfeeding for longer than one month was associated with a reduced risk of habitual snoring at age 8 (adjusted OR 0.48, 95% CI 0.29 to 0.81) and duration of breastfeeding was inversely associated with the prevalence of habitual snoring (adjusted OR 0.79, 95% CI 0.62 to 1.00). Any breastfeeding for longer than 1 month was associated with a lower risk of witnessed sleep apnea (adjusted OR 0.17, 95% CI 0.04 to 0.71). The protective associations were not mediated by BMI, current asthma, atopy or rhinitis at age 8 years. Conclusions: Breastfeeding for longer than one month decreases the risk of habitual snoring and witnessed apneas in this cohort of children with a family history of asthma. The underlying mechanism remains unclear but the finding would be consistent with a beneficial effect of the breast in the mouth on oropharyngeal development with consequent protection against upper airway dysfunction causing sleep-disordered breathing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Anemia is one of the many complications of chronic kidney disease (CKD). However, the current prevalence of anemia in CKD patients in the United States is not known. Data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) in 2007–2008 and 2009–2010 were used to determine the prevalence of anemia in subjects with CKD. The analysis was limited to adults aged >18 who participated in both the interview and exam components of the survey. Three outcomes were assessed: the prevalence of CKD, the prevalence of anemia in subjects with CKD, and the self-reported treatment of anemia. CKD was classified into 5 stages based on the glomerular filtration rate and evidence of kidney damage, in accordance with the guidelines of the National Kidney Foundation. Anemia was defined as serum hemoglobin levels ≤12 g/dL in women and ≤13 g/dL in men. We found that an estimated 14.0% of the US adult population had CKD in 2007–2010. Anemia was twice as prevalent in people with CKD (15.4%) as in the general population (7.6%). The prevalence of anemia increased with stage of CKD, from 8.4% at stage 1 to 53.4% at stage 5. A total of 22.8% of CKD patients with anemia reported being treated for anemia within the previous 3 months–14.6% of patients at CKD stages 1–2 and 26.4% of patients at stages 3–4. These results update our knowledge of the prevalence and treatment of anemia in CKD in the United States. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the absence of reliable systems for registering rare types of vital events large surveys are required to measure changes in their rates. However some events such as maternal deaths are widely known about in the community. This study examined the utility of asking respondents about events in their neighbourhood as an efficient method for measuring relative rates of rare health events such as maternal and infant deaths. A survey was conducted in the health and demographic surveillance system (HDSS) in Matlab, Bangladesh, which includes two areas with different health care regimes. Adult women were asked about any maternal deaths; multiple births; infant deaths, live births and some other events they knew of in a small specified area around their home. Agreement between HDSS records and survey responses was moderate or better (kappa≥0.44) for all the events and greatest for maternal deaths (kappa = 0.77) with 84% being reported. Most events were more likely to be reported if they were recent (p<0.05). Infant mortality rate in one area was 0.56 times that in the other which was well reflected by the ratio of survey results (0.53). Simulations were used to study the ability of the method to detect differences in maternal mortality ratio. These suggested that a sample size around 5000 would give 80% power to detect a 50% decrease from a baseline of 183 which compared well with an estimated sample size around 10 times larger using the direct sisterhood method. The findings suggest that the Neighbourhood Method has potential for monitoring relative differences between areas or changes over time in the rates of rare demographic events, requiring considerably smaller sample sizes than traditional methods. This raises the possibility for interventions to demonstrate real effects on outcomes such as maternal deaths where previously this was only feasible by indirect methods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: International travellers are at a risk of infectious diseases not seen in their home country. Stomach upsets are common in travellers, including on cruise ships. This study compares the incidence of stomach upsets on land- and cruise-based holidays. Methods: A major British tour operator has administered a Customer Satisfaction Questionnaire (CSQ) to UK resident travellers aged 16 or more on return flights from their holiday abroad over many years. Data extracted from the CSQ was used to measure self-reported stomach upset in returning travellers. Results: From summer 2000 through winter 2008, 6,863,092 questionnaires were completed; 6.6% were from cruise passengers. A higher percentage of land-based holiday-makers (7.2%) reported stomach upset in comparison to 4.8% of cruise passengers (RR = 1.5, p<0.0005). Reported stomach upset on cruises declined over the study period (7.1% in 2000 to 3.1% in 2008, p<0.0005). Over 25% of travellers on land-based holidays to Egypt and the Dominican Republic reported stomach upset. In comparison, the highest proportion of stomach upset in cruise ship travellers were reported following cruises departing from Egypt (14.8%) and Turkey (8.8%). Conclusions: In this large study of self-reported illness both demographic and holiday choice factors were shown to play a part in determining the likelihood of developing stomach upset while abroad. There is a lower cumulative incidence and declining rates of stomach upset in cruise passengers which suggest that the cruise industry has adopted operations (e.g. hygiene standards) that have reduced illness over recent years. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Communicable disease outbreaks of novel or existing pathogens threaten human health around the globe. It would be desirable to rapidly characterize such outbreaks and develop accurate projections of their duration and cumulative size even when limited preliminary data are available. Here we develop a mathematical model to aid public health authorities in tracking the expansion and contraction of outbreaks with explicit representation of factors (other than population immunity) that may slow epidemic growth. Methodology: The Incidence Decay and Exponential Adjustment (IDEA) model is a parsimonious function that uses the basic reproduction number R0, along with a discounting factor to project the growth of outbreaks using only basic epidemiological information (e.g., daily incidence counts). Principal Findings: Compared to simulated data, IDEA provides highly accurate estimates of total size and duration for a given outbreak when R0 is low or moderate, and also identifies turning points or new waves. When tested with an outbreak of pandemic influenza A (H1N1), the model generates estimated incidence at the i+1th serial interval using data from the ith serial interval within an average of 20% of actual incidence. Conclusions and Significance: This model for communicable disease outbreaks provides rapid assessments of outbreak growth and public health interventions. Further evaluation in the context of real-world outbreaks will establish the utility of IDEA as a tool for front-line epidemiologists. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: Quality of life is a key element in the follow-up of people living with HIV/AIDS. The main purpose of this study was to validate the French version of the WHOQOL-HIV instrument by comparing this instrument to a generic questionnaire. The second objective was to test the reproducibility of this questionnaire. Method: The WHOQOL-HIV and SF-36 questionnaires were filled out by 50 patients on two separate occasions with a time interval of 2 weeks. The internal consistency, validity and reliability of the WHOQOL-HIV were evaluated. Results: The internal consistency was acceptable for the different domains, with Cronbach’s alpha ranging from 0.937 to 0.944. The facet-domain correlations were all statistically significant (p<0.001). There was a correlation between the domains from the WHOQOL-HIV and SF-36 questionnaires, with coefficients ranging from 0.349 to 0.763 (p<0.05 for all), except for the Spirituality domain. The test-retest reliability was suitable for all domains and facets, with statistically significant intra-class coefficients between 0.615 and 0.931. Conclusion: This study demonstrated that the French translation of the WHOQOL-HIV instrument is a valid and reproducible tool for the evaluation of the quality of life for HIV-infected patients. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Despite nearly two centuries of study, the fundamental transmission dynamic properties of cholera remain incompletely characterized. We used historical time-series data on the spread of cholera in twelve European and North American cities during the second cholera pandemic, as reported in Amariah Brigham’s 1832 A Treatise on Epidemic Cholera, to parameterize simple mathematical models of cholera transmission. Richards growth models were used to derive estimates of the basic reproductive number (R0) (median: 16.0, range: 1.9 to 550.9) and the proportion of unrecognized cases (mean: 96.3%, SD: 0.04%). Heterogeneity in model-generated R0 estimates was consistent with variability in cholera dynamics described by contemporary investigators and may represent differences in the nature of cholera spread. While subject to limitations associated with measurement and the absence of microbiological diagnosis, historical epidemic data are a potentially rich source for understanding pathogen dynamics in the absence of control measures, particularly when used in conjunction with simple and readily interpretable mathematical models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: In 2008, 800 rural Thai adults living within Kamphaeng Phet Province were enrolled in a prospective cohort study of zoonotic influenza transmission. Serological analyses of enrollment sera suggested this cohort had experienced subclinical avian influenza virus (AIV) infections with H9N2 and H5N1 viruses. Methods: After enrollment, participants were contacted weekly for 24mos for acute influenza-like illnesses (ILI). Cohort members confirmed to have influenza A infections were enrolled with their household contacts in a family transmission study involving paired sera and respiratory swab collections. Cohort members also provided sera at 12 and 24 months after enrollment. Serologic and real-time RT-PCR assays were performed against avian, swine, and human influenza viruses. Results: Over the 2 yrs of follow-up, 81 ILI investigations in the cohort were conducted; 31 (38%) were identified as influenza A infections by qRT-PCR. Eighty-three household contacts were enrolled; 12 (14%) reported ILIs, and 11 (92%) of those were identified as influenza infections. A number of subjects were found to have slightly elevated antibodies against avian-like A/Hong Kong/1073/1999(H9N2) virus: 21 subjects (2.7%) at 12-months and 40 subjects (5.1%) at 24-months. Among these, two largely asymptomatic acute infections with H9N2 virus were detected by >4-fold increases in annual serologic titers (final titers 1∶80). While controlling for age and influenza vaccine receipt, moderate poultry exposure was significantly associated with elevated H9N2 titers (adjusted OR = 2.3; 95% CI, 1.04–5.2) at the 24-month encounter. One subject had an elevated titer (1∶20) against H5N1 during follow-up. Conclusions: From 2008–10, evidence for AIV infections was sparse among this rural population. Subclinical H9N2 AIV infections likely occurred, but serological results were confounded by antibody cross-reactions. There is a critical need for improved serological diagnostics to more accurately detect subclinical AIV infections in humans. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Seroepidemiology of chlamydia can offer study opportunities and insights into cumulative risk of exposure that may contribute to monitoring the frequency of, and control of, genital chlamydia–the most commonly diagnosed STI in England. We undertook retrospective anonymous population-based cross-sectional surveys using an indirect IgG ELISA for chlamydia Pgp3 antibody. Sera from 4,732 women aged 17–24 years were tested. Samples were taken at 3-yearly intervals between 1993 and 2002, a period during which other data suggest chlamydia transmission may have been increasing, and from each year between 2007 and 2010. Seroprevalence increased in 17–24 year olds over time between 1993 and 2002. Between 2007 and 2010, age-standardised seroprevalence among 17–24 year olds decreased from 20% (95% CI: 17–23) to 15% (95%CI 12–17) (p = 0.0001). The biggest drop was among 20 to 21 year olds, where seroprevalence decreased from 21% in 2007 to 9% in 2010 (p = 0.002). These seroprevalence data reflect some known features of the epidemiology of chlamydia infection, and show that exposure to antibody-inducing chlamydia infection has declined in recent years. This decline was concurrent with increasing rates of screening for asymptomatic chlamydia. Serology should be explored further as a tool for evaluation of chlamydia control, including chlamydia screening programmes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: To evaluate the pattern of co-infection of human papillomavirus (HPV) types in both sexes in Sweden. Methods: Cell samples from genital swabs, first-void urine, and genital swabs immersed in first-void urine were collected in the present cross-sectional High Throughput HPV Monitoring study. Overall, 31,717 samples from women and 9,949 from men (mean age 25) were tested for 16 HPV types using mass spectrometry. Multilevel logistic regression was used to estimate the expected number of multiple infections with specific HPV types, adjusted for age, type of sample, and accounting for correlations between HPV types due to unobserved risk factors using sample-level random effects. Bonferroni correction was used to allow for multiple comparisons (120). Results: Observed-to-expected ratio for any multiple infections was slightly above unity in both sexes, but, for most 2-type combinations, there was no evidence of significant departure from expected numbers. HPV6/18 was found more often and HPV51/68 and 6/68 less often than expected. However, HPV68 tended to be generally underrepresented in co-infections, suggesting a sub-optimal performance of our testing method for this HPV type. Conclusions: We found no evidence for positive or negative clustering between HPV types included in the current prophylactic vaccines and other untargeted oncogenic types, in either sex. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Health inequities in developing countries are difficult to eradicate because of limited resources. The neglect of adult mortality in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) is a particular concern. Advances in data availability, software and analytic methods have created opportunities to address this challenge and tailor interventions to small areas. This study demonstrates how a generic framework can be applied to guide policy interventions to reduce adult mortality in high risk areas. The framework, therefore, incorporates the spatial clustering of adult mortality, estimates the impact of a range of determinants and quantifies the impact of their removal to ensure optimal returns on scarce resources. Methods: Data from a national cross-sectional survey in 2007 were used to illustrate the use of the generic framework for SSA and elsewhere. Adult mortality proportions were analyzed at four administrative levels and spatial analyses were used to identify areas with significant excess mortality. An ecological approach was then used to assess the relationship between mortality “hotspots” and various determinants. Population attributable fractions were calculated to quantify the reduction in mortality as a result of targeted removal of high-impact determinants. Results: Overall adult mortality rate was 145 per 10,000. Spatial disaggregation identified a highly non-random pattern and 67 significant high risk local municipalities were identified. The most prominent determinants of adult mortality included HIV antenatal sero-prevalence, low SES and lack of formal marital union status. The removal of the most attributable factors, based on local area prevalence, suggest that overall adult mortality could be potentially reduced by ∼90 deaths per 10,000. Conclusions: The innovative use of secondary data and advanced epidemiological techniques can be combined in a generic framework to identify and map mortality to the lowest administration level. The identification of high risk mortality determinants allows health authorities to tailor interventions at local level. This approach can be replicated elsewhere. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The Child and Adolescent Twin Study in Sweden (CATSS) is an on-going, large population-based longitudinal twin study. We aimed (1) to investigate the reliability of two different versions (125-items and 238-items) of Cloninger's Temperament and Character Inventory (TCI) used in the CATSS and the validity of extracting the short version from the long version, (2) to compare these personality dimensions between twins and adolescents from the general population, and (3) to investigate the genetic structure of Cloninger's model. Method: Reliability and correlation analyses were conducted for both TCI versions, 2,714 CATSS-twins were compared to 631 adolescents from the general population, and the genetic structure was investigated through univariate genetic analyses, using a model-fitting approach with structural equation-modeling techniques based on same-sex twin pairs from the CATSS (423 monozygotic and 408 dizygotic pairs). Results: The TCI scores from the short and long versions showed comparable reliability coefficients and were strongly correlated. Twins scored about half a standard deviation higher in the character scales. Three of the four temperament dimensions (Novelty Seeking, Harm Avoidance, and Persistence) had strong genetic and non-shared environmental effects, while Reward Dependence and the three character dimensions had moderate genetic effects, and both shared and non-shared environmental effects. Conclusions: Twins showed higher scores in character dimensions compared to adolescents from the general population. At least among adolescents there is a shared environmental influence for all of the character dimensions, but only for one of the temperament dimensions (i.e., Reward Dependence). This specific finding regarding the existence of shared environmental factors behind the character dimensions in adolescence, together with earlier findings showing a small shared environmental effects on character among young adults and no shared environmental effects on character among adults, suggest that there is a shift in type of environmental influence from adolescence to adulthood regarding character. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The proper allocation of public health resources for research and control requires quantification of both a disease's current burden and the trend in its impact. Infectious diseases that have been labeled as “emerging infectious diseases” (EIDs) have received heightened scientific and public attention and resources. However, the label ‘emerging’ is rarely backed by quantitative analysis and is often used subjectively. This can lead to over-allocation of resources to diseases that are incorrectly labelled “emerging,” and insufficient allocation of resources to diseases for which evidence of an increasing or high sustained impact is strong. We suggest a simple quantitative approach, segmented regression, to characterize the trends and emergence of diseases. Segmented regression identifies one or more trends in a time series and determines the most statistically parsimonious split(s) (or joinpoints) in the time series. These joinpoints in the time series indicate time points when a change in trend occurred and may identify periods in which drivers of disease impact change. We illustrate the method by analyzing temporal patterns in incidence data for twelve diseases. This approach provides a way to classify a disease as currently emerging, re-emerging, receding, or stable based on temporal trends, as well as to pinpoint the time when the change in these trends happened. We argue that quantitative approaches to defining emergence based on the trend in impact of a disease can, with appropriate context, be used to prioritize resources for research and control. Implementing this more rigorous definition of an EID will require buy-in and enforcement from scientists, policy makers, peer reviewers and journal editors, but has the potential to improve resource allocation for global health. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

QUESTION: A 6-second spirometry test is easier than full exhalations. We compared the reliability of the ratio of the Forced expiratory volume in 1 second/Forced expiratory volume in 6 seconds (FEV1/FEV6) to the ratio of the FEV1/Forced vital capacity (FEV1/FVC) for the detection of airway obstruction. METHODS: The PLATINO population-based survey in individuals aged 40 years and over designed to estimate the prevalence of post-Bronchodilator airway obstruction repeated for the same study participants after 5–9 years in three Latin-American cities. RESULTS: Using the FEV1/FVC1/FEV6 to define airway obstruction, the changes in prevalence were smaller: 9.7 to 10.6% in Montevideo, 8.6 to 9.0% in São Paulo, and 7.5 to 7.9% in Santiago. Changes in the prevalence of COPD with criteria based on FEV1/FVC correlated strongly with changes in the FET of the tests (R2 0.92) unlike the prevalence based on a low FEV1/FEV6 (R2 = 0.40). CONCLUSION: The FEV1/FEV6 is a more reliable index than FEV1/FVC because FVC varies with the duration of the forced exhalation. Reporting FET and FEV1/FEV61/FVC-derived indices. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Main objective: To evaluate the distribution of central corneal thickness (CCT) in a large German cohort and to analyse its relationship with intraocular pressure and further ocular factors. Design: Population-based, prospective, cohort study. Methods: The Gutenberg Health Study (GHS) cohort included 4,698 eligible enrollees of 5,000 subjects (age range 35–74 years) who participated in the survey from 2007 to 2008. All participants underwent an ophthalmological examination including slitlamp biomicroscopy, intraocular pressure measurement, central corneal thickness measurement, fundus examination, and were given a questionnaire regarding glaucoma history. Furthermore, all subjects underwent fundus photography and visual field testing using frequency doubling perimetry. Results: Mean CCT was 557.3±34.3 µm (male) and 551.6±35.2 µm in female subjects (Mean CCT from right and left eyes). Younger male participants (35–44 years) presented slightly thicker CCT than those older. We noted a significant CCT difference of 4 µm between right and left eyes, but a high correlation between eyes (Wilcoxon test for related samples: p<0.0001). Univariable linear regression stratified by gender showed that IOP was correlated with CCT (p<0.0001). A 10 µm increase in CCT led to an increase in IOP between 0.35–0.38 mm Hg, depending on the eye and gender. Multivariable linear regression analysis revealed correlations between gender, spherical equivalent (right eyes), and CCT (p<.0001 and p = 0.03, respectively). Conclusions: We observed positive correlations between CCT and IOP and gender. CCT was not correlated with age, contact lens wear, positive family history for glaucoma, lens status, or iris colour. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Variable expression is one aspect of the heterogeneity of asthma. We aimed to define a variable pattern, which is relevant in general health epidemiological cohorts. Our objectives were to assess whether: 1) asthma patterns defined using simple asthma questions through repeated measurements could reflect disease variability 2) these patterns may further be classified according to asthma severity/control. Among 70,428 French women, we used seven questionnaires (1992–2005) and a comprehensive reimbursement database (2004–2009) to define three reliable asthma patterns based on repeated positive answers to the ever asthma attack question: “never asthma” (n = 64,061); “inconsistent” (“yes” followed by “no”, n = 3,514); “consistent” (fully consistent positive answers, n = 2,853). The “Inconsistent” pattern was related to both long-term (childhood-onset asthma with remission in adulthood) and short-term (reported asthma attack in the last 12 months, associated with asthma medication) asthma variability, showing that repeated questions are relevant markers of the variable expression of asthma. Furthermore, in this pattern, the number of positive responses (1992–2005) predicted asthma drug consumption in subsequent years, a marker of disease severity. The “Inconsistent” pattern is a phenotype that may capture the variable expression of asthma. Repeated answers, even to a simple question, are too often neglected. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives: This investigation was undertaken in response to an outbreak of suspected shellfish poisoning in Zhejiang Province, China. The objectives of this project were to confirm the outbreak and to identify the aetiology, source and mode of transmission. Methods: A probable case was defined as an individual with diarrhea (≥3 times/day) plus at least one of the following symptoms: fever (≥37.5°C), vomiting, or abdominal pain after consuming seafood between May 23rd and May 28th, 2011. Using a case-control study design, we compared exposures to suspected seafood items and cooking methods between 61 probable cases and 61 controls. Results: Over 220 suspected or probable cases of diarrhetic shellfish poisoning (DSP) were identified (incidence of 18 cases per 100,000). The case control study revealed that 100% of cases and 18% of controls had eaten mussels during the exposure period (OR = ∞, χ2 = 84.72,P = 0.000). The number of mussels consumed was related to DSP risk (P = 0.004, χ2 test for trend). Consumption of other seafood items was not associated with disease. The frequency of diarrhea and vomiting were positively correlated with the number of mussels consumed (r = 0.424 and r = 0.562, respectively). The frequency of vomiting and the incubation period were significantly correlated with the total time the mussels were boiled (r = 0.594 and r = −0.336, respectively). Mussels from 3 food markets and one family contained Okadaic acid (OA) and Dinophysistoxin-1 (DTX-1). Conclusions: This outbreak was attributed to the consumption of mussels contaminated by DSP-toxins (OA and DTX-1) which are produced by different species of dinoflagellates (toxic microalgae) from the genus Dinophysis or Prorocentrum. Suspension of mussel sales and early public announcements were highly effective in controlling the outbreak, although oversight of seafood quality should be a priority to prevent future contamination and outbreaks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Analysis of gene quantities measured by quantitative real-time PCR (qPCR) can be complicated by observations that are below the limit of quantification (LOQ) of the assay. A hierarchical model estimated using MCMC methods was developed to analyze qPCR data of genes with observations that fall below the LOQ (censored observations). Simulated datasets with moderate to very high levels of censoring were used to assess the performance of the model; model results were compared to approaches that replace censored observations with a value on the log scale approximating zero or with values ranging from one to the LOQ of ten gene copies. The model was also compared to a Tobit regression model. Finally, all approaches for handling censored observations were evaluated with DNA extracted from samples that were spiked with known quantities of the antibiotic resistance gene tetL. For the simulated datasets, the model outperformed substitution of all values from 1–10 under all censoring scenarios in terms of bias, mean square error, and coverage of 95% confidence intervals for regression parameters. The model performed as well or better than substitution of a value approximating zero under two censoring scenarios (approximately 57% and 79% censored values). The model also performed as well or better than Tobit regression in two of three censoring scenarios (approximately 79% and 93% censored values). Under the levels of censoring present in the three scenarios of this study, substitution of any values greater than 0 produced the least accurate results. When applied to data produced from spiked samples, the model produced the lowest mean square error of the three approaches. This model provides a good alternative for analyzing large amounts of left-censored qPCR data when the goal is estimation of population parameters. The flexibility of this approach can accommodate complex study designs such as longitudinal studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: We performed a nationwide prospective study on the transmission risk for Borrelia to humans, investigating symptoms and serology at enrolment and three months after tick bites, and after standard treatment for erythema migrans (EM). Aiming to quantify the infection risk at point of care by physicians, we explored risk factors such as tick testing for Borrelia and assessment of the duration of the tick's blood meal. Methods and Findings: Questionnaires, blood samples and ticks from patients who consulted one of 307 general practitioners for tick bites (n = 327) or EM (n = 283) in 2007 and 2008, were collected at enrolment and three months later at follow-up. Borrelia burgdorferi sensu lato DNA was detected in 29.3% of 314 ticks, using PCR/reverse line blot and real-time PCR on the OspA gene. Seroconversion in C6 ELISA, IgM or IgG immunoblots for Borrelia-specific antibodies was observed in 3.2% of tick bite cases. Fourteen tick bite cases had evidence of early Borrelia infection, of which EM developed among seven cases. The risk of developing EM after tick bites was 2.6% (95%CI: 1.1%–5.0%), and the risk of either EM or seroconversion was 5.1% (95%CI: 2.9%–8.2%). Participants with Borrelia-positive ticks had a significantly higher risk of either EM or seroconversion (odds ratio 4.8, 95%CI: 1.1–20.4), and of seroconversion alone (odds ratio 11.1, 95%CI: 1.1–108.9). A third (34%) of the cases enrolled with EM did not recall preceding tick bites. Three EM cases (1%) reported persisting symptoms, three months after standard antibiotic treatment for EM. Conclusions: One out of forty participants developed EM within three months after tick bites. The infection risk can be assessed by tick testing for Borrelia at point of care by physicians. However, further refining is needed considering sensitivity and specificity of tick tests, accuracy of tick attachment time and engorgement. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]