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As municipal landfills are still the prevailing option for solid waste management in Brazil, there is a high possibility to recover combustible materials from both municipal and industrial waste streams with high calorific value through Refuse Derived Fuel (RDF). RDF can be utilized as substitute fuels in cement and other industries that could, in turn, reduce energy consumption and the landfill space for waste disposal. However, relevant policies for use of RDF in Brazil are unclear due to the lack of systematic socioeconomic assessment concerning cost, benefit, and risk aspects. This paper is aimed to present a system dynamics modeling analysis to estimate the availability of potential recyclable waste streams from municipal and industrial sectors for RDF production in Brazil and discuss possible policy interventions. The model was simulated based on a 20-year timeframe in accordance with possible waste management policies in Espírito Santo (a Brazilian state). The results provide the annual waste availability from four different routes with respect to the pessimistic, intermediate, and optimistic scenarios considered. With the partial implementation of the actions indicated in the proposed solid waste management policy, it is envisioned that there will be sufficient waste streams for RDF production under dynamic uncertainties, given the limited cost-benefit-risk trade-off assessment. In addition to the direct benefits of sustainable RDF production as a substitute for fossil fuels in the cement industry, the indirect environmental benefits are salient as the regulations for circular economy can be functional in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]