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This study employs the dynamic recursive Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) approach to model Australia's economy. This carbon tax policy is designed based on Australia's economy, starting at A$23/tCO2, increasing over time and imposing uniformly on all industries. This study proposes two carbon tax policies and three revenue recycling approaches, and the prices and GDP variations are estimated during 2020 and 2035. This study confirms introducing a carbon tax policy decreases Australia's carbon emissions and reduces real consumption and GDP if it is not accompanied by a revenue recycling policy. But following a revenue-neutral policy and redirecting the carbon tax revenue into the economy through reducing income taxes and investing in research and development (R&D) projects leads to economic growth. This study confirms the implementation of a carbon tax associated with a suitable revenue recycling approach benefits Australia both economically and environmentally. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Geoengineering is a high-stakes policy issue that calls for research and debate that is pluralistic, reflexive and socially accountable. This paper reflects on an Australian geoengineering scenario project as a practical and innovative platform for informing governance. We produce multi-scale scenarios—representing Australia and the world— built on four fundamentally different archetypes, in which three include geoengineering. According to the four scenarios: greenhouse gas emissions continue increasing to 2050 but not long beyond; except with accelerated technology development and adoption, climate change impacts by 2050 become globally relevant; the risk of unilateral geoengineering deployment without adequate governance is low; and the framing of geoengineering deployment can be characterized as either climate mitigation, adaptation or optimization. Australia’s role in geoengineering can be described as passive in the global context, but Australia can benefit from an early transition to a low-carbon economy. A review of the evolution of ideas throughout the exercise reveals a process of shared learning that helps to focus governance discussions around key issues. This study is one step towards increasing the presence and influence of the Asia-Pacific in geoengineering discussions, and highlights the value that a tailored scenario exercise can bring to governance discussions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Local government organisations in coastal Australia have historically commissioned studies aimed at understanding risks in their locality to future sea level rise as a starting point for developing adaptation strategies to climate change. Therefore, the success of the overall adaptation activities of local government are strongly influenced by the way those initial risk studies are scoped and conducted, and how the outputs of those studies underpin subsequent adaptation planning activities within the organization. Mainstreaming of adaptation planning activities within local government is critical in terms of getting stakeholder support and required resources for its implementation. This paper analyses a sample of these coastal risk assessment studies across seven states and territories in Australia, with an aim to critically investigate the current state of practice among coastal local governments. First, we develop a typology of studies that have been undertaken by or for practitioners to understand coastal climate change risks, and discuss the applicability of the studies within the policy-making context of local government. Second, we identify a set of sample studies from the ‘grey literature’ through a systematic process and investigate to what extent they adhere to best practice risk management guidelines and principles, such as ISO31000. Third, we interview stakeholders from top performing studies to identify how/if the risk studies helped their organization in progressing their adaptation planning. We find that there is a significant inconsistency among terminologies in the coastal climate change risk assessment unpublished literature as studies use “risk”, vulnerability” and “hazard” concepts interchangeably despite their separate objectives and aims. Most studies perform poorly in evaluating risk against broader organizational criteria. Subsequently, it is difficult to integrate the findings of such studies into a broader organizational risk register, limiting opportunities for identified coastal climate change risks to be integrated into councils’ long-term strategic decision making. Conversely, the follow up interviews of studies that performed well in scoping and consultation in our assessment demonstrate that these aspects were beneficial to stakeholders in terms of informing adaptation planning. Importantly, the findings presented in this paper confirm the need for a consistent risk assessment approach for local councils in the coastal zone to underpin successful adaptation planning. This is a critical issue, not only for Australia, but for local government organisations globally given that sea level rise is a projected threat for all populated coastal regions worldwide. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Australian agricultural land use and production have evolved within an economic and environmental context that may change substantially in terms of productivity rates, resource scarcity and degradation, greenhouse gas abatement policy, climate change, and global demand. We used an integrated systems modelling approach to explore the response of Australian land use and agricultural production to these changes from 2013 to 2050. We found potentially large transitions in spatial and temporal patterns of land use, agricultural production, output rates, and profitability. New land uses such as carbon plantings, biofuels and bioenergy, and environmental plantings competed with food and fibre production, reducing its area. Global outlooks, including the strength of action on climate change and population assumptions, had a strong influence. Capacity constraints and adoption inertia reduced and delayed land use change. Agricultural production and land use were sensitive to productivity assumptions. Despite the competition for land from new land uses, agricultural production increased under most settings, with greatest impact from land use transitions concentrated on livestock production. Agricultural profits also increased under most settings due to higher prices and output rates. Negligible land use change was observed with carbon payments below $50 per tCO 2 -e, and significant change did not occur before 2030 in any but the unconstrained, high-abatement scenarios. We conclude that transformative land use change is plausible but high levels of food/fibre production can co-exist with non-food land uses motivated by market responses to global change and domestic policy. Thereby, the Australian land sector can continue its significant contribution to global food security while responding to new economic opportunities. Policy settings can influence these outcomes through reducing infrastructure constraints, strategies for enhancing adoption, and research and development in agricultural technology and productivity. Due to the long time frames required to change attitudes and land use and management practices, consideration of the possible impacts of global change on agriculture and potential policy responses is timely. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The nexus between human rights and the environment is a key issue for climate policymakers and Indigenous peoples around the world. We combine national spatial, social and biological datasets from Australia to describe where Indigenous carbon projects are happening, why Indigenous people are participating, and how effective these schemes might be at marrying Indigenous co-benefit, biodiversity and carbon emission mitigation goals. Our study shows that many Indigenous people engage in carbon offset schemes as part of their broader cultural responsibility for landscapes, and that they seek to grow the relationship between social and ecological benefits. It also highlights the challenges associated with designing carbon offset schemes that address the impacts of climate change and respond to Indigenous peoples’ world views about what is required to sustain cultural-social-ecological systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using temporal or spatial analogues is a well developed technique for comparative studies that can shed light on past environments or inform changes in practice by reference to analogue locations. Recently, studies have begun to employ analogue techniques to inform on future conditions under climate change. This paper explores the breadth of application of analogue approaches and seeks to question whether there are the limits to the way in which the technique can be applied. We consider the case of policy in a wide range of land use relevant factors, using case studies of three Australian states. The analysis examines whether existing policy in land use planning, housing, infrastructure, health and ecological services in analogue communities can inform future policy in target communities, so as to fast track their policy development as climate changes. We highlight a number of situations where evidence supports the argument but we conclude that, over the full spectrum of policy, there is insufficient evidence to suggest that analogue approaches are valuable as a policy development tool. The paper outlines the reasons why the approach is limited in the case of land use policy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]