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Accurate and reliable low-voltage load forecasting is critical to optimal operation and control of distribution network and smart grid. However, compared to traditional regional load forecasting at high-voltage level, it faces tough challenges due to the inherent high uncertainty of the low-capacity load and distributed renewable energy integrated in the demand side. This paper proposes a novel hybrid ensemble deep learning (HEDL) approach for deterministic and probabilistic low-voltage load forecasting. The deep belief network (DBN) is applied to low-voltage load point prediction with the strong ability of approximating nonlinear mapping. A series of ensemble learning methods including bagging and boosting variants are introduced to improve the regression ability of DBN. In addition, the differencing transformation technique is utilized to ensure the stationarity of load time series for the application bagging and boosting methods. On the basis of the integrated thought of ensemble learning, a new hybrid ensemble algorithm is developed via integrating multiple separate ensemble methods. Considering the diversity in various ensemble algorithms, an effective K nearest neighbor classification method is utilized to adaptively determine the weights of sub-models. Furthermore, HEDL based probabilistic forecasting is proposed by taking advantage of the inherent resample idea in bagging and boosting. The effectiveness of the HEDL method for both deterministic and probabilistic forecasting has been systematically verified based on realistic load data from East China and Australia, indicating its promising prospective for practical applications in distribution networks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An increasing number of residential customers have installed hybrid rooftop solar battery systems (HRSBSs). Currently, most HRSBSs are installed behind-the-meter (BTM), where only customers’ net load is measured by smart meters. This invisibility poses significant challenges to the system operation. Disaggregating BTM PV generation and battery charging/discharging profile of customers can enhance the grid-edge observability. This article proposes an energy disaggregation method to jointly separate the PV generation and battery charging/discharging power from the net load. First, a Home Smart Battery Management model is built to simulate the battery charging/discharging profile. Second, an optimal disaggregation model is established based on a contextually supervised source separation method. Furthermore, the feature vectors of PV, load, and battery are extracted as the input of the disaggregation model. Case studies on two datasets from Australia and China show that the proposed method has a promising disaggregation performance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]