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Since the 1960s, development of the transport system has been framed by the notion of forecasting future demand. Yet the past decade or more appears to signal some significant changes to the role of travel in society which are having a material impact on how much people travel (and may travel in the future). Coupled with the potential for major technological changes and a range of climate adaptation scenarios, the future of mobility presents today's decision making on transport strategy and investment with a broader set of uncertainties than has previously been considered. This paper examines current mainstream practice for incorporating uncertainty into decision-making, through an illustrative case study of the highly codified approaches of the Department for Transport in England. It deconstructs the issue by first focussing on different ways in which there is an opening out or acceptance of new uncertainties and how this creates a (wider) set of potential futures. It then turns to consider how this set of futures is used, or not, in decision-making, i.e. the process of closing down uncertainty to arrive at or at least inform a decision. We demonstrate that, because the range of uncertainties has broadened in scope and scale, the traditional technocratic approach of closing down decisions through sensitivity testing is at odds with the greater breadth now being called for at the opening out stage. We conclude that transport decision-making would benefit from a rebalancing of technical depth with analytical breadth. The paper outlines a plausible new approach to opening out and closing down that is starting to be applied in practice. This approach must be accompanied by an opening up of the processes by which technical advice for decisions are reached and how uncertainties are understood and negotiated. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding how personal experience of extreme weather events raises awareness and concern about climate change has important policy implications. It has repeatedly been argued that proximising climate change through extreme weather events holds a promising strategy to increase engagement with the issue and encourage climate change action. In this paper, we exploit geo-referenced panel data on climate change attitudes as well as natural variation in flood and heatwave exposure in England and Wales to estimate the causal effect of extreme weather events on climate change attitudes and environmental behaviours using a difference-in-differences matching approach. Our findings suggest that personal experience with both flooding and heatwaves significantly increases risk perception towards climate change impacts but has no effect on climate change concern or pro-environmental behaviour, on average. Moreover, the findings indicate that the effect of flooding on risk perception is highly localised and diminishes at greater distances. For heatwaves, we find that the effect on risk perception is driven by the recent salient summer heatwaves of 2018 and 2019. Having experienced both events also significantly increases climate change concern and pro-environmental behaviour, in addition to risk perception. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper studies the Upper Tigris River (UTR) drainage basin in Turkey for climate change impacted runoff estimations. Statistical downscaling method (SDM) is used by taking into consideration spatial dependence function (SDF) for the scenario precipitation projections at a set of available meteorology stations. Temporal adjustment between the climate scenarios and precipitation record time series is achieved by the white Markov (WM) stochastic process. Although various climate research center scenario data are considered, herein, only the general circulation model (GCM) A2 scenario data are adapted from the Hadley Center, England. The precipitation and runoff results are presented in decadal groups starting from 2001 to 2050 as cumulative monthly precipitation (CMP) and cumulative monthly runoff (CMR) graphs. It is observed that after 2021, precipitation decreases at about 12.5% and after 2030, it is 26%. Runoff projections indicate that they may decrease at about 30% especial after 2040. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Diss Mere is a small natural lake located in the centre of the town Diss in Norfolk (England). The lake, which has been exposed to different stressors including climate variability and changing land use, has significant recreational, historical and environmental value. The Diss Mere sediments are annually-laminated for most of the Holocene (2.1–10.3 ka BP), which allows the study of the lake evolution and its response to changing environmental conditions at an exceptionally high resolution. As with many mid-latitude, alkaline lakes, Diss Mere's sediments are formed of biogenic-calcite varves. We have conducted a 3.5-year lake-monitoring survey including sediment trapping to identify the main drivers and seasonal processes contributing to lake sedimentation. Our results demonstrate that the modern lake is still producing seasonally-differentiated sediments today, however, are unable to be preserved as varves due to the permanent oxygenation of the lake bottom through gradual lake shallowing. Seasonal sediment fluxes follow a general pattern of (i) an early spring-diatom bloom; (ii) spring precipitation of medium-coarse calcite grains; (iii) summer precipitation of smaller endogenic calcite grains; and (iv) an autumn algal bloom and endogenic calcite precipitation intermixed with benthic diatoms and micrite. Whilst calcite precipitates throughout the whole year, peaks are observed in the epilimnion during the summer. This study shows that a modern analogue approach can be applied to the varves revealing their potential for environmental and climate reconstruction and highlights the significance of monitoring surveys for modern analogue approaches to palaeolimnological research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, the trends, stabilities of temperature, and rainfall data have been analyzed in detail for hydrometeorology time series recorded since 1870 in Oxford city in England. The innovative trend analysis (ITA) method has been used to identify and analyze the piecewise trends and stabilities of the selected time series. To compare the results, the modified Mann–Kendall (MMK) and Sen's slope (SS) methods have been applied to each series as a piecewise ITA application. To obtain reliable and objective conclusions, ± 5% and ± 10% trend percentage lines have been considered in the application of the ITA method. The piecewise ITA method provides more detailed information in this study, compared to the studies in the literature such as the MMK. Identification of trends that implies climate change is taken into consideration by the ITA approach for future design purposes. In this study, the available time series with a record length of 150 years has been divided into sub-series of 30 years considering the last 30-year period in which climate change began to be discussed due to its significant effects. As a result, when the trends of 150 years are examined for the different partial series, it is seen that the temperature increase in the 1990–2019 period is much higher than the past 120 years. The highest average rainfall occurred in the 1990–2019 and 1900–1929 periods, and their amounts are nearly similar. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

British pre-industrial economic growth has traditionally been analysed from the Malthusian point of view and other more optimistic approaches, but in many cases, ignoring environmental factors. This article explores the inclusion of the climate in this general debate, focusing on one of the colder periods of the last 500 years, known as the Maunder Minimum. The provisional results suggest that climate change and the resulting adaptations may have influenced the start of the English Agricultural Revolution, the Energy Transition and the European Divergence. However, from an econometric point of view these results are not fully conclusive, making it necessary to continue working with better primary sources and other alternative methodologies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Reliable estimates of Holocene temperatures are important for understanding past climate dynamics, the response of biota to climate change, and validating climate models. Chironomids in lake sediment cores are used widely to quantify past summer temperatures, for which high-latitude and/or highaltitude lakes, remote from human influence, are usually considered appropriate. Temperature inferences from lowland lakes are likely influenced by other variables, specifically eutrophication and industrial pollution, but their reliability has never been tested. We used a Norwegian chironomid-based transfer function (r2 = 0.91; RMSEP = 1.01 °C) to infer mean July air temperature over the last 200 years, using chironomid assemblages in a core collected from a polluted, nutrient-enriched lake at Speke Hall, Liverpool, England. The chironomidinferred temperatures correlate significantly with the local instrumental temperature record and follow long-term national temperature trends. These results show that chironomids can be used to produce reliable estimates of past mean July air temperature, even when other variables have also influenced the composition of the chironomid community. These findings underline the value of chironomids as sensitive and reliable quantitative proxies for summer temperature. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Flooding is a major threat to the local communities in the UK, and the risks are increasing due to climate change. Encouraging homeowners to prepare for the consequences of catastrophic flooding is imperative. This study aims to examine the ways in which individuals' risk perceptions and socio-cultural characteristics co-determine the preparedness for flood hazards. It is based on a social survey about household arrangements that can reduce the economic losses arising from flooding and enhance community resilience. A total of 485 responses were solicited from homeowners in England and Wales. Results confirm that the intention to act is socially motivated. This indicates the need for addressing the role of social networks and engagement with local community in enhancing community resilience to flooding. On the other hand, the effect of risk-related considerations is complicated. Perceived severity of flood damage is associated with intended actions, whereas risk characteristics are not. This implies that although providing relevant risk information to the public is crucial, appealing to the feelings of fears and uncertainties is less likely to be effective in driving actions for managing flood risks than has been usually assumed. The findings have practical implications for policy-making and climate risk communication. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A letter to the editor is presented in response to the article on weather and climate change drivers of the winter floods in southern England in 2013/2014 is presented.