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Inland waters are among the most threatened biodiversity hotspots. Ponds located in alpine areas are experiencing more rapid and dramatic water temperature increases than any other biome. Despite their prevalence, alpine ponds and their biodiversity responses to climate change have been poorly explored, reflecting their small size and difficult access. To understand the effects of climate change on alpine pond biodiversity, we performed a comprehensive literature review for papers published since 1955. Through analysis of their geographic distribution, environmental features, and biodiversity values, we identified which environmental factors related to climate change would have direct or indirect effects on alpine pond biodiversity. We then synthesized this information to produce a conceptual model of the effects of climate change on alpine pond biodiversity. Increased water temperature, reduced hydroperiod, and loss of connectivity between alpine ponds were the main drivers of biodiversity geographic distribution, leading to predictable changes in spatial patterns of biodiversity. We identified three major research gaps that, if addressed, can guide conservation and restoration strategies for alpine ponds biodiversity in an uncertain future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Citizen science can facilitate in‐depth learning for pupils and students, contribute to scientific research, and permit civic participation. Here, we describe the development of the transnational school‐based citizen science project Phenology of the North Calotte. Its primary goal is to introduce pupils (age 12–15; grades 7–10) in northern Norway, Russia, and Finland to the local and global challenges of climate change resulting in life cycle changes at different trophic and ecosystem levels in their backyards. Partnerships between regional scientists and staff from NIBIO Svanhovd, State nature reserves, national parks, and teachers and pupils from regional schools aim to engage pupils in project‐based learning. The project uses standardized protocols, translated into the different languages of participating schools. The phenological observations are centered around documenting clearly defined life cycle phases (e.g., first appearance of species, flowering, ripening, leaf yellowing, snow fall, and melt). The observations are collected either on paper and are subsequently submitted manually to an open‐source online database or submitted directly via a newly developed mobile app. In the long term, the database is anticipated to contribute to research studying changes in phenology at different trophic levels. In principle, guided school‐based citizen science projects have the potential to contribute to increased environmental awareness and education and thereby to transformative learning at the societal level while contributing to scientific progress of understudied biomes, like the northern taiga and (sub)arctic tundra. However, differences in school systems and funding insecurity for some schools have been major prohibiting factors for long‐term retention of pupils/schools in the program. Project‐based and multidisciplinary learning, although pedagogically desired, has been partially difficult to implement in participating schools, pointing to the need of structural changes in national school curricula and funding schemes as well as continuous offers for training and networking for teachers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Brazilian Cerrado biome is the largest and richest tropical savanna in the world. In order to understand the effects of climate changes on the hydrology of the Cerrado basins, this paper investigates the hydrological impacts of climate change throughout the 21st century under different emissions scenarios on the streamflow and on the droughts in the Sono, Manuel Alves da Natividade and Palma basins, located in the Brazilian Cerrado. For this purpose, the SWAT hydrological model driven by the downscaling of the HadGEM2‐ES and MIROC5 global climate models associated with RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios were used in three time slices (2011–2040, 2041–2070 and 2071–2099). The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Standardized Streamflow Index (SSFI) were used to characterize droughts. In general, the results showed that the duration, intensity and frequency of the meteorological and hydrological droughts are expected to increase during the future periods. However, the hydrological droughts are projected to be larger than the meteorological droughts. Reductions in the streamflow are indicated in all future time slices and under both RCPs, especially, during dry periods, which may cause negative impacts in the ecological functions of the Cerrado biome, risk for reduction of the recharge of aquifers and risk for the electric energy production in northern Brazil. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The anthropogenic impacts on the environment, including deforestation and the escalating emissions of greenhouse gases, have significantly contributed to global climate change that can lead to alterations in ecosystems. In this context, protected areas (PAs) are pillars for biodiversity conservation by being able, for example, to maintain the viability of populations of endangered species. On the other hand, the species range shifts do not follow the limits of PAs, jeopardizing the conservation of these species. Furthermore, the effectiveness of PAs is consistently undermined by impacts stemming from land use, hunting activities, and illegal exploitation, both within the designated areas and in their adjacent zones. The objectives of this study are to quantify the impacts of climate change on the distribution of threatened and endemic birds of the Amazon biome, evaluate the effectiveness of PAs in protecting the richness of threatened birds, and analyze the representativeness of species within PAs. We found with our results that climate suitability loss is above 80 for 65% of taxa in the optimistic scenario and above 93% in the pessimistic scenario. The results show that PAs are not effective in protecting the richness of Amazonian birds, just as they are ineffective in protecting most of the taxa studied when analyzed individually Although some taxa are presented as "Protected," in future scenarios these taxa may suffer major shrinkages in their distributions and consequently present population unviability. The loss of climatically suitable areas and the effectiveness of PAs can directly influence the loss of ecosystem services, fundamental to maintaining the balance of biodiversity. Therefore, our study paves the way for conservation actions aimed at these taxa so that they can mitigate current and future extinctions due to climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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Ecosystem stability represents the ability of the ecosystem to maintain and restore its functions. The indicators of ecosystem stability include temporal stability, resistance, and resilience, which are crucial parameters to predict the basic functions of the earth under global change. However, the correlation between the indicators of ecosystem stability and the dimensions of ecosystem stability at global scale remains unclear. Here, we quantified the global dimensions of ecosystem stability using moderate resolution imaging spectrometer (MODIS) enhanced vegetation index (EVI) data from 2001 to 2018 as well as climate variables and land standard species richness data. We revealed a strong positive correlation between temporal stability and resistance and no correlation between resistance and resilience at global scale. The dimension of ecosystem stability changed along the gradients of latitude or altitude. The dimensions of ecosystem stability were different among biomes, showing the lowest in the evergreen broad‐leaved forest (EBF) and the highest in the grassland (GRA). Climate factors were strongly associated with the changes in dimensions of ecosystem stability at global scale. These findings highlight the crucial role of dimensions in exploring ecosystem stability, potentially eliminating contradictions in the ecosystem service mechanism of the earth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The dominant species of a biome can be regarded as its genuine indicator. Evergreen broadleaved forests (EBLFs) in subtropical East Asia harbor high levels of species biodiversity and endemism and are vital to regional carbon storage and cycling. However, the historical assembly of this unique biome is still controversial. Fagaceae is the most essential family in East Asian subtropical EBLFs and its dominant species are vital for the existence of this biome. Here, we used the dominant Fagaceae species to shed light on the dynamic process of East Asian subtropical EBLFs over time. Our results indicate high precipitation in summer and low temperature in winter are the most influential climatic factors for the distribution of East Asian subtropical EBLFs. Modern East Asian subtropical EBLFs did not begin to appear until 23 Ma, subsequently experienced a long‐lasting development in the Miocene and markedly deteriorated at about 4 Ma, driven jointly by orogenesis and paleoclimate. We also document that there is a lag time between when one clade invaded the region and when its members become dominant species within the region. This study may improve our ability to predict and mitigate the threats to biodiversity of East Asian subtropical EBLFs and points to a new path for future studies involving multidisciplinary methods to explore the assembly of regional biomes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: Climate change is expected to impact mountain biodiversity by shifting species ranges and the biomes they shape. The extent and regional variation in these impacts are still poorly understood, particularly in the highly biodiverse Andes. Regional syntheses of climate change impacts on vegetation are pivotal to identify and guide research priorities. Here we review current data, knowledge and uncertainties in past, present and future climate change impacts on vegetation in the Andes. Location: Andes. Taxon: Plants. Methods: We (i) conducted a literature review on Andean vegetation responses to past and contemporary climatic change, (ii) analysed future climate projections for different elevations and slope orientations at 19 Andean locations using an ensemble of model outputs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5, and (iii) calculated changes in the suitable climate envelope area of Andean biomes and compared these results to studies that used species distribution models. Results: Future climatic changes (2040–2070) are projected to be stronger at high‐elevation areas in the tropical Andes (up to 4°C under RCP 8.5), while in the temperate Andes temperature increases are projected to be up to 2°C. Under this worst‐case scenario, temperate deciduous forests and the grasslands/steppes from the Central and Southern Andes are predicted to show the greatest losses of suitable climatic space (30% and 17%–23%, respectively). The high vulnerability of these biomes contrasts with the low attention from researchers modelling Andean species distributions. Critical knowledge gaps include a lack of an Andean wide plant checklist, insufficient density of weather stations at high‐elevation areas, a lack of high‐resolution climatologies that accommodates the Andes' complex topography and climatic processes, insufficient data to model demographic and ecological processes, and low use of palaeo data for distribution modelling. Main conclusions: Climate change is likely to profoundly affect the extent and composition of Andean biomes. Temperate Andean biomes in particular are susceptible to substantial area contractions. There are, however, considerable challenges and uncertainties in modelling species and biome responses and a pressing need for a region‐wide approach to address knowledge gaps and improve understanding and monitoring of climate change impacts in these globally important biomes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The boreal forest biome is a major component of Earth's biosphere and climate system that is projected to shift northward due to continued climate change over the coming century. Indicators of a biome shift will likely first be evident along the climatic margins of the boreal forest and include changes in vegetation productivity, mortality, and recruitment, as well as overall vegetation greenness. However, the extent to which a biome shift is already underway remains unclear because of the local nature of most field studies, sparsity of systematic ground‐based ecological monitoring, and reliance on coarse resolution satellite observations. Here, we evaluated early indicators of a boreal forest biome shift using four decades of moderate resolution (30 m) satellite observations and biogeoclimatic spatial datasets. Specifically, we quantified interannual trends in annual maximum vegetation greenness using an ensemble of vegetation indices derived from Landsat observations at 100,000 sample sites in areas without signs of recent disturbance. We found vegetation greenness increased (greened) at 38 [29, 42] % and 22 [15, 26] % of sample sites from 1985 to 2019 and 2000 to 2019, whereas vegetation greenness decreased (browned) at 13 [9, 15] % and 15 [13, 19] % of sample sites during these respective periods [95% Monte Carlo confidence intervals]. Greening was thus 3.0 [2.6, 3.5] and 1.5 [0.8, 2.0] times more common than browning and primarily occurred in cold sparsely treed areas with high soil nitrogen and moderate summer warming. Conversely, browning primarily occurred in the climatically warmest margins of both the boreal forest biome and major forest types (e.g., evergreen conifer forests), especially in densely treed areas where summers became warmer and drier. These macroecological trends reflect underlying shifts in vegetation productivity, mortality, and recruitment that are consistent with early stages of a boreal biome shift. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The boreal biome plays an important role in the global carbon cycle. However, current estimates of its sink‐source strength and responses to changes in climate are primarily derived from models and thus remain uncertain. A major challenge is the validation of these models at a regional scale since empirical flux estimates are typically confined to ecosystem or continental scales. The Integrated Carbon Observation System (ICOS)‐Svartberget atmospheric station (SVB) provides observations including tall tower eddy covariance (EC) and atmospheric concentration measurements that can contribute to such validation in Northern Sweden. Thus, the overall aim of this study was to quantify the carbon balance in Northern Sweden region by integrating land‐atmosphere fluxes and atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations. There were three specific objectives. First, to compare flux estimates from four models (VPRM, LPJ‐GUESS, ORCHIDEE, and SiBCASA) to tall tower EC measurements at SVB during the years 2016–2018. Second to assess the fluxes' impact on atmospheric CO2 concentrations using a regional transport model. Third, to assess the impact of the drought in 2018. The comparison of estimated concentrations with ICOS observations helped the evaluation of the models' regional scale performance. Both the simulations and observations indicate there were similar reductions in the net CO2 uptake during drought. All the models (except for SiBCASA) and observations indicated the region was a net carbon sink during the 3‐year study period. Our study highlights a need to improve vegetation models through comparisons with empirical data and demonstrate the ICOS network's potential utility for constraining CO2 fluxes in the region. Plain Language Summary: As the largest global carbon sink, the boreal region can play an important role in climate mitigation strategies. Thus, it is important to estimate the region's sink strength properly. However, due to limitations in measurement techniques at the regional scale, the sink strength estimates are often obtained from models, which require robust validation. Therefore, we combined flux and atmospheric concentration data from one of the stations in Northern Europe to validate estimates generated using four vegetation models. We also used a transport model to connect the fluxes to atmospheric concentration dynamics, then compared the modeled CO2 concentration patterns with observations to provide a regional scale validation of the vegetation models. These observed and modeled fluxes and concentrations are also used to investigate the impact of the 2018 drought over Nordic vegetation. We find that the 2018 European drought had only limited impact on the carbon fluxes over Northern Sweden. Both the modeling and measurements show that the study region was a carbon sink during the study period (2016–2018), with some variation in estimates from the four models. Key Points: Northern Sweden region was a carbon sink in the years 2016–2018 according to vegetation model estimates and observationsBoth concentration and flux measurements suggest 2018 drought had limited impact on the Nordic carbon balanceEmpirical measurements can improve vegetation models by integrating them into model simulations at site and regional scaleHowever, annual net ecosystem exchange values generated by the models varied between −275 and −25 gC m−2 year−1 [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: Protected areas (PAs) play an important role in biodiversity conservation, but remain increasingly threatened by invasive alien plant species (IAPS) in conjunction with global climate change. The latter is modifying the distribution of the former, and the magnitude and direction of distributional changes are predicted to vary depending on species dispersal mode. Here, we address the question of whether clonality is expected to affect the future invasion pattern in PAs. Location: Worldwide. Time period: 1950–2100. Major taxa studied: 36 invasive alien plant species. Methods: We used ensembles of three species distribution models (GLM, GAM and Maxent) based on >70,000 occurrence records to project the distribution of 36 of the world's most invasive clonal and non‐clonal plants in >20,000 PAs. Projections were based on three greenhouse gas concentration scenarios (low, medium and high) for 2080. Results: Climate change showed little impact on the global invasion pattern in PAs, and clonality showed little effect when all biomes were processed in concert. However, we discerned that the future invasion risk of clonal IAPS markedly increased in biomes located at high elevation and high latitude compared with non‐clonal IAPS, while the risk decreased in lower‐elevation tropical and subtropical biomes where asexual reproduction may be a less successful trait. We also showed that invasion hot spots overlapped with biodiversity hot spots and two realms (i.e. Nearctic and Palearctic), which calls for bridging the gap between invasion and conservation sciences and for more concerted management strategies. Main conclusions: We suggest that effective management of IAPS in PAs should consider in which biomes PAs are located as well as the reproductive traits of IAPS that are present or may become so. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: The interconnectedness and biotic interchange among Neotropical biomes are thought to play an important role in driving adaptation and diversification. However, how these processes are in synteny to trait evolution in species of open and xeric areas is poorly studied. Here, we investigate the spatial and temporal dimensions of evolution and candidate traits associated with biome shifts in xeric vegetation, focusing on the family Cactaceae. Location: Xeric and open areas of South America. Taxon: Genus Cereus Mill. (Cactaceae, Cereeae). Methods: We applied biogeographical reconstructions on a time-calibrated phylog- eny inferred from multilocus data (ddRAD-Seq) using Bayesian analyses on BEAST2, species distribution modelling in Maxent, the reconstruction of biome affinities and niche shift analyses based on abiotic traits (climate and soil) using Mk-model in BioGeoBEARS, and phenotypic trait-based analysis in Mesquite. Results: The Cerrado domain is the ancestral area of Cereus, with most diversification events occurring in a time of intense orogenesis, climatic changes, and marine regressions within the last 5 Mya. Events of biome transition from the seasonally dry tropical forest (SDTF) were also associated with trait and niche shifts. Main conclusions: The diversification of the xerophyte genus Cereus is associated with the climatic and geomorphological instabilities of the Pliocene and Pleistocene epochs. The Cerrado domain states an important region of dispersal for the genus. Some geographical range movements involved biome shifts associated with niche evolution while others were restricted to a simple biogeographical transition without niche change. Particular clades that experienced biome shifts displayed some phenotypic state changes, suggesting a role of biotic traits for environment transition. The results observed in Cereus may be a biogeographical pattern that should be tested with other cactus species, such as Pilosocereus spp., or species of xeric habitats, such as Annonaceae and Vochysiaceae. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Motivation: Leaf traits represent an important component of plant functional strategies, and those related to carbon fixation and nutrient acquisition form the leaf economics spectrum. However, observations of functional leaf traits are underrepresented in tropical regions in comparison with those in temperate areas. Brazil, a country with continental scale and vast biodiversity is a timely example, where many biomes are impacted by human activities and climate change. However, leaf traits relevant to understand vegetation responses to these impacts remain poorly quantified for many species found in the country. We compiled an extensive data set of four functional leaf traits for native woody species occurring in the Brazilian territory. In addition to trait observations, sampling dates and geo‐references were compiled and climatic parameters and soil properties of each sampling site were extracted from several databases. Main types of variables contained: The LT‐Brazil data set contains 3,479, 1,216, 775 and 775 clean observations of leaf mass per area, leaf nitrogen (N) concentration per unit mass, leaf phosphorus (P) concentration per unit mass, and leaf N : P ratio, respectively, from native woody species, encompassing information of biome, vegetation, taxonomic data, geographical coordinates, climatic parameters, as well as soil properties. Spatial location and grain: We compiled trait observations from 223 sites under native vegetation distributed in all main biomes (i.e., Amazônia, Caatinga, Cerrado, Mata Atlântica, Pampa and Pantanal) across the Brazilian territory. Time period and grain: The data represent information published and/or sampled during the last 25 years. Major taxa and level of measurement: Our compilation was focused on trait data observed for native woody species, excluding monocots, palm trees, herbs, and hemiparasitic plants. Thus, 108, 478 and 1,321 botanical families, genera and species were included, covering c. 9% of the woody angiosperm flora of Brazil. Software format: Data are provided as comma‐separated value (.csv) files. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change over the past century has altered vegetation community composition and species distributions across rangelands in the western United States. The scale and magnitude of climatic influences are unknown. While many studies have projected the effects of climate change using several modeling approaches, none has evaluated the impacts to fractional component cover at a 30‐m resolution across the full sagebrush (Artemisia spp.) biome. We used fractional component cover data for rangeland functional groups and weather data from the 1985 to 2018 reference period in conjunction with soils and topography data to develop empirical models describing the spatiotemporal variation in component cover. To investigate the ramifications of future change across the western United States, we extended models based on historical relationships over the reference period to model landscape effects based on future weather conditions from two emission scenarios and three time periods (2020s, 2050s, and 2080s). We tested both generalized additive models (GAMs) and regression tree models, finding that the former led to superior spatial and statistical results. Our results indicate more xeric vegetation across most of the study area, with an increasing dominance of non‐sagebrush shrubs, annual herbaceous cover, and bare ground over herbaceous and sagebrush cover in both the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. In general, both scenarios yielded similar results, but RCP 8.5 tended to be more extreme, with greater change relative to the reference period. Results demonstrate that in cool sites some degree of warming to growing season maximum temperature or nongrowing season minimum temperature could be beneficial to sagebrush and shrub growth. However, warming nongrowing season maximum temperature was beneficial to shrub, but not to sagebrush growth. Our results inform rangeland managers of potential future vegetation composition, cover, and species distributions, which could improve prioritization of conservation and restoration efforts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Anthropogenic climate change is expected to impact ecosystem structure, biodiversity and ecosystem services in Africa profoundly. We used the adaptive Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (aDGVM), which was originally developed and tested for Africa, to quantify sources of uncertainties in simulated African potential natural vegetation towards the end of the 21st century. We forced the aDGVM with regionally downscaled high-resolution climate scenarios based on an ensemble of six general circulation models (GCMs) under two representative concentration pathways (RCPs 4.5 and 8.5). Our study assessed the direct effects of climate change and elevated CO2 on vegetation change and its plant-physiological drivers. Total increase in carbon in aboveground biomass in Africa until the end of the century was between 18% to 43% (RCP4.5) and 37% to 61% (RCP8.5) and was associated with woody encroachment into grasslands and increased woody cover in savannas. When direct effects of CO2 on plants were omitted, woody encroachment was muted and carbon in aboveground vegetation changed between -8 to 11% (RCP 4.5) and -22 to -6% (RCP8.5). Simulated biome changes lacked consistent large-scale geographical patterns of change across scenarios. In Ethiopia and the Sahara/Sahel transition zone, the biome changes forecast by the aDGVM were consistent across GCMs and RCPs. Direct effects from elevated CO2 were associated with substantial increases in water use efficiency, primarily driven by photosynthesis enhancement, which may relieve soil moisture limitations to plant productivity. At the ecosystem level, interactions between fire and woody plant demography further promoted woody encroachment. We conclude that substantial future biome changes due to climate and CO2 changes are likely across Africa. Because of the large uncertainties in future projections, adaptation strategies must be highly flexible. Focused research on CO2 effects, and improved model representations of these effects will be necessary to reduce these uncertainties. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Resilient landscapes have helped maintain terrestrial biodiversity during periods of climatic and environmental change. Identifying the tempo and mode of landscape transitions and the drivers of landscape resilience is critical to maintaining natural systems and preserving biodiversity given today's rapid climate and land use changes. However, resilient landscapes are difficult to recognize on short time scales, as perturbations are challenging to quantify and ecosystem transitions are rare. Here we analyze two components of North American landscape resilience over 20,000 years: residence time and recovery time. To evaluate landscape dynamics, we use plant biomes, preserved in the fossil pollen record, to examine how long a biome type persists at a given site (residence time) and how long it takes for the biome at that site to reestablish following a transition (recovery time). Biomes have a median residence time of only 230–460 years. Only 64% of biomes recover their original biome type, but recovery time is 140–290 years. Temperatures changing faster than 0.5°C per 500 years result in much reduced residence times. Following a transition, biodiverse biomes reestablish more quickly. Landscape resilience varies through time. Notably, short residence times and long recovery times directly preceded the end‐Pleistocene megafauna extinction, resulting in regional destabilization, and combining with more proximal human impacts to deliver a one‐two punch to megafauna species. Our work indicates that landscapes today are once again exhibiting low resilience, foreboding potential extinctions to come. Conservation strategies focused on improving both landscape and ecosystem resilience by increasing local connectivity and targeting regions with high richness and diverse landforms can mitigate these extinction risks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary: Biomes are constructs for organising knowledge on the structure and functioning of the world's ecosystems, and serve as useful units for monitoring how the biosphere responds to anthropogenic drivers, including climate change. The current practice of delimiting biomes relies on expert knowledge. Recent studies have questioned the value of such biome maps for comparative ecology and global‐change research, partly due to their subjective origin. Here we propose a flexible method for developing biome maps objectively. The method uses range modelling of several thousands of plant species to reveal spatial attractors for different growth‐form assemblages that define biomes. The workflow is illustrated using distribution data from 23 500 African plant species. In an example application, we create a biome map for Africa and use the fitted species models to project biome shifts. In a second example, we map gradients of growth‐form suitability that can be used to identify sites for comparative ecology. This method provides a flexible framework that (1) allows a range of biome types to be defined according to user needs and (2) enables projections of biome changes that emerge purely from the individualistic responses of plant species to environmental changes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: Biomes worldwide are shifting with global change. Biomes whose extents are limited by temperature or precipitation, such as the tundra and savanna, may be particularly strongly affected by climate change. While woody plant encroachment is prevalent across both biomes, its relationship to temperature and precipitation change remains unknown. Here, we quantify the degree to which woody encroachment is related to climate change and identify its main associated drivers. Location: Tundra and savanna biomes. Time period: 1992 ± 20.27–2010 ± 5.62 (mean ± SD). 1876–2016 (range). Major taxa studied: Woody plants (shrubs and trees). Methods: We compiled a dataset comprising 1,089 records from 899 sites of woody plant cover over time and attributed drivers of woody cover change across these two biomes. We calculated cover change in each biome and assessed the degree to which cover change corresponds to concurrent temperature and precipitation changes using multiple climate metrics. Finally, we conducted a quantitative literature review of the relative importance of attributed drivers of woody cover change. Results: Woody encroachment was widespread geographically and across climate gradients. Rates of woody cover change (positive or negative) were 1.8 times lower in the tundra than in the savanna (1.8 vs. 3.2%), while rates of woody cover increase (i.e., encroachment) were c. 1.7 times lower in the tundra compared with the savanna (3.7 vs. 6.3% per decade). In the tundra, magnitudes of woody cover change did not correspond to climate, while in the savanna, greater cover change corresponded with increases in precipitation. We found higher rates of woody cover change in wetter versus drier sites with warming in the tundra biome, and higher rates of woody cover change in drier versus wetter sites with increasing precipitation in the savanna. However, faster rates of woody cover change were not associated with more rapid rates of climate change across sites, except for maximum precipitation in the savanna. Main conclusions: Woody encroachment was positively related to warming in the tundra and increased rainfall in the savanna. However, cover change rates were not predicted by rates of climate change, which can be partially explained by climate interactions in both biomes. Additional likely influences include site‐level factors, time‐lags, plant‐specific responses, and land use and other non‐climate drivers. Our findings highlight the complex nature of climate change impacts in biomes limited by seasonality, which should be accounted for to realistically estimate future responses across open biomes under global change scenarios. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Research efforts have intensified to foresee the prospects for marine biomes under climate change and anthropogenic drivers over varying temporal and spatial scales. Parallel with these efforts is the utilization of terminology, such as 'ocean acidification' (OA) and 'ocean deoxygenation' (OD), that can foster rapid comprehension of complex processes driving carbon dioxide (CO2) and oxygen (O2) concentrations in the global ocean and thus, are now widely used in discussions within and beyond academia. However, common usage of the terms 'acidification' and 'deoxygenation' alone are subjective and, without adequate contextualization, have the potential to mislead inferences over drivers that may ultimately shape the future state of marine ecosystems. Here we clarify the usage of the terms OA and OD as global, climate change‐driven processes and discuss the various attributes of elevated CO2 and reduced O2 syndromes common to coastal ecosystems. We support the use of the existing terms 'coastal acidification' and 'coastal deoxygenation' because they help differentiate the sometimes rapid and extreme nature of CO2 and O2 syndromes in coastal ecosystems from the global, climate change‐driven processes of OA and OD. Given the complexity and breadth of the processes involved in altering CO2 and O2 concentrations across marine ecosystems, we provide a workflow to enable contextualization and clarification of the usage of existing terms and highlight the close link between these two gases across spatial and temporal scales in the ocean. These distinctions are crucial to guide effective communication of research within the scientific community and guide policymakers responsible for intervening on the drivers to secure desirable future ocean states. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Past vegetation and climatic conditions are known to influence current biodiversity patterns. However, whether their legacy effects affect the provision of multiple ecosystem functions, that is, multifunctionality, remains largely unknown. Here we analyzed soil nutrient stocks and their transformation rates in 236 drylands from six continents to evaluate the associations between current levels of multifunctionality and legacy effects of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) desert biome distribution and climate. We found that past desert distribution and temperature legacy, defined as increasing temperature from LGM, were negatively correlated with contemporary multifunctionality even after accounting for predictors such as current climate, soil texture, plant species richness, and site topography. Ecosystems that have been deserts since the LGM had up to 30% lower contemporary multifunctionality compared with those that were nondeserts during the LGM. In addition, ecosystems that experienced higher warming rates since the LGM had lower contemporary multifunctionality than those suffering lower warming rates, with a ~9% reduction per extra degree Celsius. Past desert distribution and temperature legacies had direct negative effects, while temperature legacy also had indirect (via soil sand content) negative effects on multifunctionality. Our results indicate that past biome and climatic conditions have left a strong "functionality debt" in global drylands. They also suggest that ongoing warming and expansion of desert areas may leave a strong fingerprint in the future functioning of dryland ecosystems worldwide that needs to be considered when establishing management actions aiming to combat land degradation and desertification. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Primary succession encompasses the earliest and most fundamental stages of community assembly. The relative contributions of plant dispersal and ecosystem development, the main drivers that control the rate of primary succession, remain largely unknown, in spite of their central roles in community organization in general. Understanding the contribution of dispersal is especially critical because it casts light on our ability to manage succession resulting from climate change or anthropogenic disturbance.Here, we review the literature in order to understand when and where dispersal limits primary succession. Studies from many systems (tropical, temperate, boreal, arctic, alpine, floodplain forest, desert, mines, volcanic eruption and glacier forelands) show that dispersal limitation occurs consistently in the early stages of primary succession, suggesting that this is a general pattern. On the other hand, we found strong biases in study sites towards the Northern Hemisphere, temperate regions, volcanic eruptions and glacier forelands, which suggests that there are risks in drawing general conclusions about the importance of dispersal for primary succession for other biomes.Little is known about the contribution of dispersal to the later stages of primary succession. We present a recently developed method, multiscale chronosequence comparison that compares rates of succession in similar systems at relatively small and large spatial scales. Rapid succession at small scales compared to large scales suggests that seed dispersal influences succession over time periods of centuries and also limits the development of ecosystem functions such as vegetation cover and soil carbon accumulation.Synthesis: Dispersal limitation likely matters not only in the early stages but also in the late stages of primary succession by controlling the rate at which new species arrive. Both the accumulation of comparable case studies and novel approaches, such as multiscale chronosequence comparisons and factorial experiments, in contrasting biomes, are necessary to clarify the generality or context dependency of the role of dispersal in future primary successions undergoing changing climate. Dispersal limitation likely matters not only in the early stages but also in the late stages of primary succession by controlling the rate at which new species arrive. Both the accumulation of comparable case studies and novel approaches, such as multiscale chronosequence comparisons and factorial experiments, in contrasting biomes, are necessary to clarify the generality or context dependency of the role of dispersal in future primary successions undergoing changing climate [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Climate change has far‐reaching impacts on ecosystems. Recent attempts to quantify such impacts focus on measuring exposure to climate change but largely ignore ecosystem resistance and resilience, which may also affect the vulnerability outcomes. In this study, the relative vulnerability of global terrestrial ecosystems to short‐term climate variability was assessed by simultaneously integrating exposure, sensitivity, and resilience at a high spatial resolution (0.05°). The results show that vulnerable areas are currently distributed primarily in plains. Responses to climate change vary among ecosystems and deserts and xeric shrublands are the most vulnerable biomes. Global vulnerability patterns are determined largely by exposure, while ecosystem sensitivity and resilience may exacerbate or alleviate external climate pressures at local scales; there is a highly significant negative correlation between exposure and sensitivity. Globally, 61.31% of the terrestrial vegetated area is capable of mitigating climate change impacts and those areas are concentrated in polar regions, boreal forests, tropical rainforests, and intact forests. Under current sensitivity and resilience conditions, vulnerable areas are projected to develop in high Northern Hemisphere latitudes in the future. The results suggest that integrating all three aspects of vulnerability (exposure, sensitivity, and resilience) may offer more comprehensive and spatially explicit adaptation strategies to reduce the impacts of climate change on terrestrial ecosystems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Aim: To define and map the main biomes of lowland tropical South America (LTSA) using data from tree species inventories and to test the ability of climatic and edaphic variables to distinguish amongst them. Location: Lowland Tropical South America (LTSA), including Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Ecuador, Paraguay, Peru and Uruguay. Time period: Present. Major taxa studied: Trees. Methods: We compiled a database of 4,103 geo‐referenced tree species inventories distributed across LTSA. We used a priori vegetation classifications and cluster analyses of floristic composition to assign sites to biomes. We mapped these biomes geographically and assessed climatic overlaps amongst them. We implemented classification tree approaches to quantify how well climatic and edaphic data can assign inventories to biomes. Results: Our analyses distinguish savanna and seasonally dry tropical forest (SDTF) as distinct biomes, with the Chaco woodlands potentially representing a third dry biome in LTSA. Amongst the wet forests, we find that the Amazon and Atlantic Forests might represent different biomes, because they are distinct in both climate and species composition. Our results show substantial environmental overlap amongst biomes, with error rates for classifying sites into biomes of 19–21 and 16–18% using only climatic data and with the inclusion of edaphic data, respectively. Main conclusions: Tree species composition can be used to determine biome identity at continental scales. We find high biome heterogeneity at small spatial scales, probably attributable to variation in edaphic conditions and disturbance history. This points to the challenges of using climatic and/or interpolation‐based edaphic data or coarse‐resolution, remotely sensed imagery to map tropical biomes. From this perspective, we suggest that using floristic information in biome delimitation will allow for greater synergy between conservation efforts centred on species diversity and management efforts centred on ecosystem function. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: The vast expanses of rangeland on the Tibetan Plateau, which support the livelihood of c. 9.8 million local inhabitants, have experienced rapid climate warming over the past 50 years. At the same time, precipitation has increased in large parts of the Plateau but decreased in other parts, particularly in the northwest. These trends are predicted to continue into the future. However, their potential effects on rangeland quality remain unclear. We conducted a two‐factor field experiment in which we manipulated temperature (control or warming by 1.5–1.8°C) and precipitation (control or 50% reduction or increase in rainfall) in an alpine grassland on the northeastern Tibetan Plateau, starting in 2011. From 2014 to 2016, we measured forage production and community composition, and in 2015 forage quality (crude protein, cell‐soluble contents, hemicellulose, cellulose, lignin and digestibility) was represented by seven abundant species. Overall, warming did not change total forage production at plant community level, but increased legume production and decreased non‐legume forb production. Increased and reduced precipitation enhanced and decreased forage production by 18.2% and 12.9% respectively. Increased precipitation in particular increased grass and sedge production, but not legume production. Forage quality showed species‐specific responses to the simulated climate changes. At community level, warming and reduced precipitation improved forage quality, which were mainly caused by a shift in community composition towards more legumes, rather than the direct effects of simulated climate changes. Meanwhile, increased precipitation did not reduce forage quality, despite the precipitation‐induced increase in forage production. Integrating forage production and quality into nutrient production as a measure of rangeland quality, we found that warming and increased precipitation additively improved rangeland quality, while reduced precipitation decreased it. Synthesis and applications. Rangeland quality, an important ecosystem provisioning service, will benefit from a warmer climate on the Tibetan Plateau in the regions with a predicted increase in precipitation, but not in those regions where precipitation might be reduced in the future. We suggest management strategies, including reseeding native legumes, establishing sustainable pastures and assisting the exchange of harvested forage, to cope with the challenges posed by these different climate change scenarios. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Bioerosion, the breakdown of hard substrata by organisms, is a fundamental and widespread ecological process that can alter habitat structure, biodiversity and biogeochemical cycling. Bioerosion occurs in all biomes of the world from the ocean floor to arid deserts, and involves a wide diversity of taxa and mechanisms with varying ecological effects. Many abiotic and biotic factors affect bioerosion by acting on the bioeroder, substratum, or both. Bioerosion also has socio‐economic impacts when objects of economic or cultural value such as coastal defences or monuments are damaged. We present a unifying definition and advance a conceptual framework for (a) examining the effects of bioerosion on natural systems and human infrastructure and (b) identifying and predicting the impacts of anthropogenic factors (e.g. climate change, eutrophication) on bioerosion. Bioerosion is responding to anthropogenic changes in multiple, complex ways with significant and wide‐ranging effects across systems. Emerging data further underscore the importance of bioerosion, and need for mitigating its impacts, especially at the dynamic land–sea boundary. Generalised predictions remain challenging, due to context‐dependent effects and nonlinear relationships that are poorly resolved. An integrative and interdisciplinary approach is needed to understand how future changes will alter bioerosion dynamics across biomes and taxa. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: No consensus has yet been reached on the major factors driving the observed increase in the seasonal amplitude of atmospheric CO2 in the northern latitudes. In this study, we used atmospheric CO2 records from 26 northern hemisphere stations with a temporal coverage longer than 15 years, and an atmospheric transport model prescribed with net biome productivity (NBP) from an ensemble of nine terrestrial ecosystem models, to attribute change in the seasonal amplitude of atmospheric CO2. We found significant (p < .05) increases in seasonal peak‐to‐trough CO2 amplitude (AMPP‐T) at nine stations, and in trough‐to‐peak amplitude (AMPT‐P) at eight stations over the last three decades. Most of the stations that recorded increasing amplitudes are in Arctic and boreal regions (>50°N), consistent with previous observations that the amplitude increased faster at Barrow (Arctic) than at Mauna Loa (subtropics). The multi‐model ensemble mean (MMEM) shows that the response of ecosystem carbon cycling to rising CO2 concentration (eCO2) and climate change are dominant drivers of the increase in AMPP‐T and AMPT‐P in the high latitudes. At the Barrow station, the observed increase of AMPP‐T and AMPT‐P over the last 33 years is explained by eCO2 (39% and 42%) almost equally than by climate change (32% and 35%). The increased carbon losses during the months with a net carbon release in response to eCO2 are associated with higher ecosystem respiration due to the increase in carbon storage caused by eCO2 during carbon uptake period. Air‐sea CO2 fluxes (10% for AMPP‐T and 11% for AMPT‐P) and the impacts of land‐use change (marginally significant 3% for AMPP‐T and 4% for AMPT‐P) also contributed to the CO2 measured at Barrow, highlighting the role of these factors in regulating seasonal changes in the global carbon cycle. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim Global biomes are often classified by mean annual temperature and precipitation, but there is significant overlap between biomes, making it difficult to interpret the role of climate in the distribution of biomes globally. Climate predictability (including long-term reliability of both seasonality and inter-annual variability) varies considerably between biomes and regulates biodiversity distribution, adaptation and evolution, but its global pattern has rarely been investigated. The aim of this study was to characterize climatic space quantitatively for major biomes of the world using temperature and precipitation predictability, and to interpret its biological implications under future climate change. Location Global. Time Period 1901-2012. Methods We calculated global gridded temperature and precipitation predictability based on an information theory approach, and compared climatic spaces defined by these measures within and across biomes. Results We show that temperature predictability has a clear latitudinal gradient, whereas precipitation predictability is geographically variable. We further show that temperature and precipitation predictability form distinct climatic spaces for major biomes across the globe, and importantly, temperature and precipitation predictability can robustly distinguish biomes that are overlapping in mean annual climate statistics. Main conclusions Climatic space created by temperature and precipitation predictability supplements the traditional biome-specific climatic spaces created by annual mean temperature and total precipitation. Quantifying measures of climate predictability helps us to understand adaptation strategies adopted by local organisms within and across biomes. Our results show that quantifying climate predictability is a simple and effective way to delineate more robustly biome climate space and its influences on macroecology and evolutionary biology, which in turn could underpin conservation efforts under future climate change, especially when prevailing climates are comparable in terms of magnitude. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The relative effect of past climate fluctuations and anthropogenic activities on current biome distribution is subject to increasing attention, notably in biodiversity hot spots. In Madagascar, where humans arrived in the last ~4 to 5,000 years, the exact causes of the demise of large vertebrates that cohabited with humans are yet unclear. The prevailing narrative holds that Madagascar was covered with forest before human arrival and that the expansion of grasslands was the result of human-driven deforestation. However, recent studies have shown that vegetation and fauna structure substantially fluctuated during the Holocene. Here, we study the Holocene history of habitat fragmentation in the north of Madagascar using a population genetics approach. To do so, we infer the demographic history of two northern Madagascar neighbouring, congeneric and critically endangered forest dwelling lemur species- Propithecus tattersalli and Propithecus perrieri-using population genetic analyses. Our results highlight the necessity to consider population structure and changes in connectivity in demographic history inferences. We show that both species underwent demographic fluctuations which most likely occurred after the mid-Holocene transition. While mid-Holocene climate change probably triggered major demographic changes in the two lemur species range and connectivity, human settlements that expanded over the last four millennia in northern Madagascar likely played a role in the loss and fragmentation of the forest cover. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sustainable water and vegetation management of coastal dunes requires fundamental knowledge of how interactions between soil, water, and vegetation evolve during succession. Therefore, we quantified the effect of succession on evaporation in dry dune grasslands of the Netherlands. On the basis of vegetation and soil records, we simulated the evaporation rate of vegetation plots that differed in successional stage, slope angle and slope orientation. Starting from bare sand, average yearly evaporation increased with 94 mm in a period of 52 to 76 years of soil and vegetation succession. The increase in evaporation was for the greater part caused by soil development (an increase of the water holding capacity) and the lesser part by an increase in vascular plant cover. In an early successional stage, ground layer evaporation could be both higher and lower compared to bare soil evaporation, depending on the moss species. At a later successional stage, moss species primarily decreased ground layer evaporation and facilitated vascular plants. Despite clear differences in slope angle and slope orientation, the simulated actual evaporation rate was not significantly correlated to the incoming solar radiation because the vascular plant cover and soil water holding capacity decreased with incoming solar radiation. These results show that biotic processes can eliminate the effects of micrometeorological differences on evaporation. On the basis of our findings, we hypothesize that vegetation shifts towards more moss- and lichen-dominated vegetation could mitigate the adverse effects of climate change (e.g., drier summers) on water resources. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The high Arctic is the world's fasting warming biome, allowing access to sections of previously inaccessible land for resource extraction. Starting in 2011, exploration of one of the Earth's largest undeveloped coal seams was initiated in a relatively pristine, polar desert environment in the Canadian high Arctic. Due to the relative lack of historic anthropogenic disturbance, significant gaps in knowledge exist on how the landscape will be impacted by development., At an abandoned airstrip located near the area of current exploration, we used a disturbance case-control approach to evaluate the long-term ecological consequences of high Arctic infrastructure disturbance to vegetation and sensitive, ice-rich permafrost. We quantified: (i) long-term effects on vegetation diversity, soil nutrients and abiotic ground conditions and (ii) the alteration of the ground surface topography and legacy of subsurface thermal changes., We found that in over 60 years since abandonment, the disturbed landscape has not recovered to initial conditions but instead reflects a disturbance-initiated succession towards a different stable-state community., Microtopography greatly influenced recovery patterns in the landscape. The terrain overlaying buried ice (ice-wedge polygon troughs) was the most sensitive to disturbance and had a different species composition, decreased plot-level species richness, significant increases in vegetation cover and a drastically reduced seasonal fluctuation in subsurface temperatures. In contrast, disturbed polygon tops showed resiliency in vegetation recovery, but still had remarkable increases in depth of seasonal soil thaw (active layer)., Synthesis and applications. Our results indicate that disturbance effects differ depending on microtopographic features, leading to an increased patchiness of the landscape as found elsewhere in the Arctic. Managers who wish to lessen their impact on high Arctic environments should avoid areas of sensitive, ice-rich permafrost, constrain the geographic scale of near-surface ground disturbance, limit vegetation removal where possible and reseed disturbed areas with native species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Coordination of stem and leaf hydraulic traits allows terrestrial plants to maintain safe water status under limited water supply. Tropical rain forests, one of the world's most productive biomes, are vulnerable to drought and potentially threatened by increased aridity due to global climate change. However, the relationship of stem and leaf traits within the plant hydraulic continuum remains understudied, particularly in tropical species. We studied within-plant hydraulic coordination between stems and leaves in three tropical lowland rain forest tree species by analyses of hydraulic vulnerability [hydraulic methods and ultrasonic emission ( UE) analysis], pressure-volume relations and in situ pre-dawn and midday water potentials ( Ψ). We found finely coordinated stem and leaf hydraulic features, with a strategy of sacrificing leaves in favour of stems. Fifty percent of hydraulic conductivity ( P50) was lost at −2.1 to −3.1 MPa in stems and at −1.7 to −2.2 MPa in leaves. UE analysis corresponded to hydraulic measurements. Safety margins (leaf P50 - stem P50) were very narrow at −0.4 to −1.4 MPa. Pressure-volume analysis and in situ Ψ indicated safe water status in stems but risk of hydraulic failure in leaves. Our study shows that stem and leaf hydraulics were finely tuned to avoid embolism formation in the xylem. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Dynamic global vegetation models ( DGVMs) can disentangle causes and effects in the control of vegetation and fire. We used a DGVM to analyse climate, CO2 and fire influences on biome distribution and net primary production ( NPP) in last glacial maximum ( LGM) and pre-industrial ( PI) times., The Land surface Processes and eXchanges ( LPX) DGVM was run in a factorial design with fire 'off' or 'on', CO2 at LGM (185 ppm) or PI (280 ppm) concentrations, and LGM (modelled) or recent climates. Results were analysed by Stein-Alpert decomposition to separate primary effects from synergies., Fire removal causes forests to expand and global NPP to increase slightly. Low CO2 greatly reduces forest area (dramatically in a PI climate; realistically under an LGM climate) and global NPP. NPP under an LGM climate was reduced by a quarter as a result of low CO2. The reduction in global NPP was smaller at low temperatures, but greater in the presence of fire., Global NPP is controlled by climate and CO2 directly through photosynthesis, but also through biome distribution, which is strongly influenced by fire. Future vegetation simulations will need to consider the coupled responses of vegetation and fire to CO2 and climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate changes are assumed to shift the ranges of tree species and forest biomes. Such range shifts result from changes in abundances of tree species or functional types. Owing to global warming, the abundance of a tree species or functional type is expected to increase near the colder edge of its range and decrease near the warmer edge. This study examined directional changes in abundance and demographic parameters of forest trees along a temperature gradient, as well as a successional gradient, in Japan. Changes in the relative abundance of each of four functional types (evergreen broad-leaved, deciduous broad-leaved, evergreen temperate conifer, and evergreen boreal conifer) and the demography of each species (recruitment rate, mortality, and population growth rate) were analyzed in 39 permanent forest plots across the Japanese archipelago. Directional changes in the relative abundance of functional types were detected along the temperature gradient. Relative abundance of evergreen broad-leaved trees increased near their colder range boundaries, especially in secondary forests, coinciding with the decrease in deciduous broadleaved trees. Similarly, relative abundance of deciduous broad-leaved trees increased near their colder range boundaries, coinciding with the decrease in boreal conifers. These functional-type-level changes were mainly due to higher recruitment rates and partly to the lower mortality of individual species at colder sites. This is the first report to show that tree species abundances in temperate forests are changing directionally along a temperature gradient, which might be due to current or past climate changes as well as recovery from past disturbances. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change will likely affect flooding regimes, which have a large influence on the functioning of freshwater riparian wetlands. Low water levels predicted for several fluvial systems make wetlands especially vulnerable to the spread of invaders, such as the common reed ( Phragmites australis), one of the most invasive species in North America. We developed a model to map the distribution of potential germination grounds of the common reed in freshwater wetlands of the St. Lawrence River ( Québec, Canada) under current climate conditions and used this model to predict their future distribution under two climate change scenarios simulated for 2050. We gathered historical and recent (remote sensing) data on the distribution of common reed stands for model calibration and validation purposes, then determined the parameters controlling the species establishment by seed. A two-dimensional model and the identified parameters were used to simulate the current (2010) and future (2050) distribution of germination grounds. Common reed stands are not widespread along the St. Lawrence River (212 ha), but our model suggests that current climate conditions are already conducive to considerable further expansion (>16,000 ha). Climate change may also exacerbate the expansion, particularly if river water levels drop, which will expose large bare areas propitious to seed germination. This phenomenon may be particularly important in one sector of the river, where existing common reed stands could increase their areas by a factor of 100, potentially creating the most extensive reedbed complex in North America. After colonizing salt and brackishwater marshes, the common reed could considerably expand into the freshwater marshes of North America which cover several million hectares. The effects of common reed expansion on biodiversity are difficult to predict, but likely to be highly deleterious given the competitiveness of the invader and the biological richness of freshwater wetlands. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding the response of the terrestrial biospheric carbon cycle to variability in enviroclimatic drivers is critical for predicting climate-carbon interactions. Here we apply an atmospheric-inversion-based framework to assess the relationships between the spatiotemporal patterns of net ecosystem CO2 exchange (NEE) and those of enviroclimatic drivers. We show that those relationships can be directly observed at 1° × 1° 3-hourly resolution from atmospheric CO2 measurements for four of seven large biomes in North America, namely, (i) boreal forests and taiga; (ii) temperate coniferous forests; (iii) temperate grasslands, savannas, and shrublands; and (iv) temperate broadleaf and mixed forests. We find that shortwave radiation plays a dominant role during the growing season over all four biomes. Specific humidity and precipitation also play key roles and are associated with decreased CO2 uptake (or increased release). The explanatory power of specific humidity is especially strong during transition seasons, while that of precipitation appears during both the growing and dormant seasons. We further find that the ability of four prototypical terrestrial biospheric models (TBMs) to represent the spatiotemporal variability of NEE improves as the influence of radiation becomes more dominant, implying that TBMs have a better skill in representing the impact of radiation relative to other drivers. Even so, we show that TBMs underestimate the strength of the relationship to radiation and do not fully capture its seasonality. Furthermore, the TBMs appear to misrepresent the relationship to precipitation and specific humidity at the examined scales, with relationships that are not consistent in terms of sign, seasonality, or significance relative to observations. More broadly, we demonstrate the feasibility of directly probing relationships between NEE and enviroclimatic drivers at scales with no direct measurements of NEE, opening the door to the study of emergent processes across scales and to the evaluation of their scaling within TBMs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate changes during the Pleistocene produced shifts, reductions, and expansions of biomes that, in turn, have been hypothesized to have driven speciation and extinction and shaped patterns of biodiversity. Here, we explore effects of Late Pleistocene climatic changes on environmentally and geographically cohesive areas mimicking species' distributions. We analyzed persistence of these 'species' over the transition from the warm Last Interglacial period to the cool Last Glacial Maximum period to warm present-day conditions, for four levels of environmental restriction (5, 10, 15 and 20% of overall variation; akin to niche breadths). African environments were overall much less conserved over these periods than those of South America, matching diversity contrasts between the two continents. Results thus indicate that biodiversity patterns relate closely to historical patterns of environmental grain and their stability through time; this view is a step toward an integral understanding of the role of environmental and geographic factors in the process of biological diversification. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Tibetan Plateau (TP) is experiencing high rates of climatic change. We present a novel combined mechanistic–bioclimatic modeling approach to determine how changes in precipitation and temperature on the TP may impact net primary production (NPP) in four major biomes (forest, shrub, grass, desert) and if there exists a maximum rain use efficiency (RUEMAX) that represents Huxman et al.'s “boundary that constrain[s] site‐level productivity and efficiency.” We used a daily mechanistic ecosystem model to generate 40‐yr outputs using observed climatic data for scenarios of decreased precipitation (25–100%); increased air temperature (1°–6°C); simultaneous changes in both precipitation (±50%, ±25%) and air temperature (+1 to +6°C) and increased interannual variability (IAV) of precipitation (+1σ to +3σ, with fixed means, where σ is SD). We fitted model output from these scenarios to Huxman et al.'s RUEMAX bioclimatic model, NPP = α + RUE × PPT (where α is the intercept, RUE is rain use efficiency, and PPT is annual precipitation). Based on these analyses, we conclude that there is strong support (when not explicit, then trend‐wise) for Huxman et al.'s assertion that biomes converge to a common RUEMAX during the driest years at a site, thus representing the boundary for highest rain use efficiency; the interactive effects of simultaneously decreasing precipitation and increasing temperature on NPP for the TP is smaller than might be expected from additive, single‐factor changes in these drivers; and that increasing IAV of precipitation may ultimately have a larger impact on biomes of the Tibetan Plateau than changing amounts of rainfall and air temperature alone. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It is essential that scientists be able to predict how strong climate warming, including profound changes to winter climate, will affect the ecosystem services of alpine, arctic and boreal areas, and how these services are driven by vegetation-soil feedbacks. One fruitful avenue for studying such changing feedbacks is through plant functional traits, as an understanding of these traits may help us to understand and synthesise (1) responses of vegetation (through 'response traits' and 'specific response functions' of each species) to winter climate and (2) the effects of changing vegetation composition (through 'effect traits' and 'specific effect functions' of each species) on soil functions. It is the relative correspondence of variation in response and effect traits that will provide useful data on the impacts of winter climate change on carbon and nutrient cycling processes. Here we discuss several examples of how the trait-based, response-effect framework can help scientists to better understand the effects of winter warming on key ecosystem functions in cold biomes. These examples support the view that measuring species for their response and effect traits, and how these traits are linked across species through correspondence of variation in specific response and effects functions, may be a useful approach for teasing out the contribution of changing vegetation composition to winter warming effects on ecosystem functions. This approach will be particularly useful when linked with ecosystem-level measurements of vegetation and process responses to winter warming along natural gradients, over medium time scales in given sites or in response to experimental climate manipulations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding global ecological patterns and processes, from biogeochemical to biogeographical, requires broad‐scale macrosystems context for comparing and contrasting ecosystems. Climate gradients (precipitation and temperature) and other continental‐scale patterns shape freshwater environments due to their influences on terrestrial environments and their direct and indirect effects on the abiotic and biotic characteristics of lakes, streams, and wetlands. We combined literature review, analyses of open access data, and logical argument to assess abiotic and biotic characters of freshwater systems across gradients of latitude and elevation that drive precipitation, temperature, and other variability. We explored the predictive value of analyzing patterns in freshwater ecosystems at the global macrosystems scale. We found many patterns based on climate, particularly those dependent upon hydrologic characteristics and linked to characteristics of terrestrial biomes. For example, continental waters of dry areas will generally be widely dispersed and have higher probability of drying and network disconnection, greater temperatures, greater inorganic turbidity, greater salinity, and lower riparian canopy cover relative to areas with high precipitation. These factors will influence local community composition and ecosystem rates. Enough studies are now available at the continental or global scale to start to characterize patterns under a coherent conceptual framework, though considerable gaps exist in the tropics and less developed regions. We present illustrative global‐scale trends of abiotic, biotic, and anthropogenic impacts in freshwater ecosystems across gradients of precipitation and temperature to further understanding of broad‐scale trends and to aid prediction in the face of global change. We view freshwater systems as occurring across arrays of multiple gradients (including latitude, altitude, and precipitation) rather than areas with specific boundaries. While terrestrial biomes capture some variability along these gradients that influence freshwaters, other features such as, slope, geology, and historical glaciation also influence freshwaters. Our conceptual framework is not so much a single hypothesis as a way to logically characterize patterns in freshwaters at scales relevant to (1) evolutionary processes that give rise to freshwater biodiversity, (2) regulatory units that influence freshwater ecosystems, and (3) the current scope of anthropogenic impacts on freshwaters and the vital ecosystem services they provide. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Phenology, the annual timing of naturally recurring events in animals and plants, is exhibiting significant changes in response to climate change. Drastic shifts in the timing of plant activity have been observed in high‐latitude environments in particular, which are exposed to the greatest amount of warming. Taking into consideration the importance of plant growth and seasonal availability for the whole ecosystem, we would hope that ample research is conducted on the impacts of climate change on plant phenology in the Arctic tundra. We provide a geographic and temporal overview of research relating to impacts of climate change on plant phenology and investigate whether the Arctic tundra is receiving the research attention that appears warranted due to the rapid warming and large expected changes in this biome. We conducted a literature search for articles using the Institute for Scientific Information Web of Science and evaluated focus on biomes, and temporal trends for 2000–2015. We found that the tundra was one of the least researched biomes, when compared to all other biomes. Proportional to the land surface the tundra covers, significantly less research in North America has been devoted to this biome than expected, while profusion of research in Europe was as expected. Additionally, we found that in the past sixteen years, despite the increase in the number of articles published relating to climate change and plant phenology, the proportion of the research devoted to the tundra decreased over time. Our findings also indicate that more work is being done on plant phenology and climate change in lower latitudes. We suggest that the results of this analysis are due to three non‐insurmountable obstacles (access, expense, and complexity) and provide practical suggestions for increased investment in climate change and plant phenology research in the otherwise neglected Arctic tundra. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]