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As we move further into the digital age, the acquisition of digital literacy (DL) and computational thinking (CT) skills is emerging internationally as an essential goal for students in contemporary school curricula. As the world becomes more uncertain and volatile due to impacts of artificial intelligence (AI), international unrest, climate change, global economic instability and unforeseen catastrophes such as the Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, it is necessary to review, revise and refine school education curricula and policies. The issue of what is essential for students to learn, and how they learn it, is of growing importance to international organisations such as the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organisation (UNESCO) and is emerging as a significant driver for educational reform across the globe. The growing prominence of CT and DL skills across many industry sectors has prompted recent changes to international assessment frameworks such as the Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA) and the Trends in International Mathematics and Science Study (TIMSS). This paper will briefly discuss specific examples of alternative approaches to addressing CT in national curricula for the compulsory years of schooling and explain how CT has been adopted as a driver for mathematics curriculum change in Australia.

To solve the problem of feature selection and error correction after mode decomposition and improve the ability of power load forecasting models to capture complex time series information, a two-stage short-term power load forecasting method based on recursive feature elimination with a cross validation (RFECV) algorithm and time convolution network–efficient channel attention mechanism–long short-term memory network (TCN–ECA–LSTM) is presented. First, the load sequence is decomposed into a relatively stable set of modal components using variational mode decomposition. Then, the RFECV-based method filters the feature set of each modal component to construct the best feature set. Finally, a two-stage prediction model based on TCN–ECA–LSTM is established. The first stage predicts each modal component and the second stage reconstructs the load forecast based on the predicted value of the previous stage. This paper takes actual data from New South Wales, Australia, as an example, and the results show that the method proposed in this paper can build the feature set reliably and efficiently and has a higher accuracy than the conventional prediction model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Simple Summary: In radiotherapy treatment, organs at risk and target volumes are contoured by the clinicians to prepare a dosimetry plan. In retrospective data, these structures are not often standardised to universal names across the patients plans, which is required to enable data mining and analysis. In this paper, a new method was proposed and evaluated to automatically standardise radiotherapy structures names using machine learning algorithms. The proposed approach was deployed over a dataset with 1613 patients collected from Liverpool & Macarthur Cancer Therapy Centres, New South Wales, Australia. It was concluded that machine learning techniques can standardise the dosimetry plan structures, taking into consideration the integration of multiple modalities representing each structure during the training process. In progressing the use of big data in health systems, standardised nomenclature is required to enable data pooling and analyses. In many radiotherapy planning systems and their data archives, target volumes (TV) and organ-at-risk (OAR) structure nomenclature has not been standardised. Machine learning (ML) has been utilised to standardise volumes nomenclature in retrospective datasets. However, only subsets of the structures have been targeted. Within this paper, we proposed a new approach for standardising all the structures nomenclature by using multi-modal artificial neural networks. A cohort consisting of 1613 breast cancer patients treated with radiotherapy was identified from Liverpool & Macarthur Cancer Therapy Centres, NSW, Australia. Four types of volume characteristics were generated to represent each target and OAR volume: textual features, geometric features, dosimetry features, and imaging data. Five datasets were created from the original cohort, the first four represented different subsets of volumes and the last one represented the whole list of volumes. For each dataset, 15 sets of combinations of features were generated to investigate the effect of using different characteristics on the standardisation performance. The best model reported 99.416% classification accuracy over the hold-out sample when used to standardise all the nomenclatures in a breast cancer radiotherapy plan into 21 classes. Our results showed that ML based automation methods can be used for standardising naming conventions in a radiotherapy plan taking into consideration the inclusion of multiple modalities to better represent each volume. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Video-based human action recognition is currently one of the most active research areas in computer vision. Various research studies indicate that the performance of action recognition is highly dependent on the type of features being extracted and how the actions are represented. Since the release of the Kinect camera, a large number of Kinect-based human action recognition techniques have been proposed in the literature. However, there still does not exist a thorough comparison of these Kinect-based techniques under the grouping of feature types, such as handcrafted versus deep learning features and depth-based versus skeleton-based features. In this paper, we analyze and compare 10 recent Kinect-based algorithms for both cross-subject action recognition and cross-view action recognition using six benchmark datasets. In addition, we have implemented and improved some of these techniques and included their variants in the comparison. Our experiments show that the majority of methods perform better on cross-subject action recognition than cross-view action recognition, that the skeleton-based features are more robust for cross-view recognition than the depth-based features, and that the deep learning features are suitable for large datasets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The high accuracy of short-term power load forecasting has a pivotal role in helping power companies to construct reasonable production scheduling plans and avoid resource waste. In this paper, a multi-model short-term power load prediction method based on Variational mode decomposition (VMD)-improved whale optimization algorithm (IWOA)-wavelet temporal convolutional network (WTCN)-bidirectional gated recurrent unit (BiGRU)-attention and CatBoost model fusion is proposed. First, VMD was employed to decompose the load data into different intrinsic mode functions. Second, a WTCN was utilized to extract the load data features, and multi-dimensional feature factors were integrated into the BiGRU network for model training. Moreover, an attention mechanism was added to enhance the influence degree of important information. The WTCN-BiGRU-attention model is improved by the WOA algorithm to optimize the hyperparameters of the network. Finally, the model was fused with the predicted data of the CatBoost network by the mean absolute percentage error-reciprocal weight (MAPE-RW) algorithm to construct the best fusion model. Compared with other forecasting models, the proposed multi-model fusion method has higher accuracy in short-term power load forecasting using the public data set for an Australian region.

The objective of this paper is to assess whether existing pavement temperature prediction algorithms can be used to reliably determine Performance Grade (PG) design temperatures for Australian asphalt pavements. The results show good agreement between internationally and locally developed pavement temperature algorithms for the prediction of high pavement design temperature. There is more variability between models in the prediction of low pavement design temperature. The paper also provides a set of PG grading results for a range of Australian asphalt binders. The findings indicate that for a given design situation harder bitumen, ormore highly modified binder would be specified in Australia than in jurisdictions using the PG system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper proposes a spatiotemporal clustering algorithm and its implementation in the R package spotoroo. This work is motivated by the catastrophic bushfires in Australia throughout the summer of 2019-2020 and made possible by the availability of satellite hotspot data. The algorithm is inspired by two existing spatiotemporal clustering algorithms but makes enhancements to cluster points spatially in conjunction with their movement across consecutive time periods. It also allows for the adjustment of key parameters, if required, for different locations and satellite data sources. Bushfire data from Victoria, Australia, is used to illustrate the algorithm and its use within the package. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Accurate short-term load forecasting (STLF) is of positive significance to the effective management of power companies and the stable operation of society. In spite of many studies conducted in this field, there are few to consider the inherent disadvantages of an individual module, which results in sub-optimal forecasting accuracy. Therefore, by integrating data preprocessing module and optimization module into support vector regression (SVR) forecasting module, this paper successfully presents a novel model (AHO-Lasso-SVR). The data preprocessing module, which is comprised of feature construction and Lasso feature selection, is used to construct and select meaningful features. An adaptive hybrid optimization (AHO) algorithm is proposed by introducing two strategies on the basis of standard particle swarm optimization (PSO). The AHO algorithm inevitably increases the computational complexity of model learning, thus, this paper proposes a subsampling technology to improve the optimization efficiency of the algorithm based on the sparsity of SVR. The proposed model is used to forecast the load at 48 points in the next day. To verify the properties of the proposed model, power load data from New South Wales, Australia are adopted as a case study. The results reveal that our model positively exceeds all comparison models in terms of forecasting accuracy and stability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The aim of this paper was to test the capabilities of the Sentinel-1 radar data in downscaling Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) radiometer data for high-resolution soil moisture estimation. Three different active–passive downscaling algorithms, including the brightness temperature-based downscaling algorithm (BTBDA), the soil moisture-based downscaling algorithm (SMBDA), and a change detection method (CDM), were analyzed using pairs of Sentinel-1 active and SMAP passive observations collected over a semiarid landscape in southeastern Australia from May 2015 to May 2016. While these algorithms have been tested previously, this is the first study to evaluate the three algorithms using real Sentinel-1 radar and SMAP radiometer data. The SMAP passive observations were disaggregated to 9-, 3-, and 1-km scales and then compared with ground soil moisture measurements. The results suggest that the root-mean-square error (RMSE) in downscaled soil moisture at 9-km resolution was 0.057, 0.056, and 0.067 cm3/cm3 for the BTBDA, SMBDA, and CDM, respectively. The accuracy of downscaling methods was generally decreased when applied at the finer spatial resolution. The SMBDA had overall better performance in terms of correctly detecting the soil moisture pattern and relatively lower RMSE values, and is, therefore, recommended for the combined Sentinel-1 radar and SMAP radiometer setup for soil moisture monitoring. The influence of incidence angle normalization of Sentinel-1 SAR data on downscaled soil moisture was also investigated and found to be minimal. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Across the globe, remote image data is rapidly being collected for the assessment of benthic communities from shallow to extremely deep waters on continental slopes to the abyssal seas. Exploiting this data is presently limited by the time it takes for experts to identify organisms found in these images. With this limitation in mind, a large effort has been made globally to introduce automation and machine learning algorithms to accelerate both classification and assessment of marine benthic biota. One major issue lies with organisms that move with swell and currents, such as kelps. This paper presents an automatic hierarchical classification method local binary classification as opposed to the conventional flat classification to classify kelps in images collected by autonomous underwater vehicles. The proposed kelp classification approach exploits learned feature representations extracted from deep residual networks. We show that these generic features outperform the traditional off-the-shelf CNN features and the conventional hand-crafted features. Experiments also demonstrate that the hierarchical classification method outperforms the traditional parallel multi-class classifications by a significant margin (90.0% vs. 57.6% and 77.2% vs. 59.0%) on Benthoz15 and Rottnest datasets respectively. Furthermore, we compare different hierarchical classification approaches and experimentally show that the sibling hierarchical training approach outperforms the inclusive hierarchical approach by a significant margin. We also report an application of our proposed method to study the change in kelp cover over time for annually repeated AUV surveys.

Wildfires are one of the most destructive disasters on the planet. They also significantly impact the land surface. Satellite data have been widely used to detect the outbreak and monitor the expansion of fire incidents for damage assessment and disaster management. Polar-orbiting satellite data have been used for several decades but data from geostationary satellites, which can provide observations with a high temporal resolution, have received much less attention. This paper utilizes data from FengYun-2G, a Chinese geostationary satellite, to detect wildfires in two selected research regions in January 2016. The detection algorithm systemizes image-based analysis to filter out obvious nonfire pixels and temporal analysis to confirm the true detections. Fire detection is based on comparisons between predicted and observed values. The results show that the proposed method has some advantages compared with the use of polar-orbiting satellite data, including early detection and continuous observation. The validation work is conducted based on the collection 6.1 Global Monthly Fire Location Product generated from fire detections by Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensors. The average accuracy within the target time is 56%, while the omission error rate is over 78%. In detail, the algorithm has a lower omission error rate in Australia while it fails in detecting most of the fire pixels in India. The dominance of small fire incidents, as well as low spatial resolution greatly limit the detection ability. Many small fires were beyond the ability of Stretched Visible and Infrared Spin Scan Radiometer (S-VISSR) data when no significant fire characteristics could be captured. Future development of the algorithm will focus on improving the results by enhancing the adaption to different regions, as well as, including multisource data sets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Evidence supporting the practice of skin-to-skin contact and breastfeeding soon after birth points to physiologic, social, and psychological benefits for both mother and baby. The 2009 revision of Step 4 of the WHO/UNICEF "Ten Steps to Successful Breastfeeding" elaborated on the practice of skin-to-skin contact between the mother and her newly born baby indicating that the practice should be "immediate" and "without separation" unless documented medically justifiable reasons for delayed contact or interruption exist. While in immediate, continuous, uninterrupted skin-to-skin contact with mother in the first hour after birth, babies progress through 9 instinctive, complex, distinct, and observable stages including self-attachment and suckling. However, the most recent Cochrane review of early skin-to-skin contact cites inconsistencies in the practice; the authors found "inadequate evidence with respect to details … such as timing of initiation and dose." This paper introduces a novel algorithm to analyse the practice of skin to skin in the first hour using two data sets and suggests opportunities for practice improvement. The algorithm considers the mother's Robson criteria, skin-to-skin experience, and Widström's 9 Stages. Using data from vaginal births in Japan and caesarean births in Australia, the algorithm utilizes data in a new way to highlight challenges to best practice. The use of a tool to analyse the implementation of skin-to-skin care in the first hour after birth illuminates the successes, barriers, and opportunities for improvement to achieving the standard of care for babies. Future application should involve more diverse facilities and Robson's classifications., (© 2017 The Authors. Maternal and Child Nutrition Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.)

A novel canonical duality theory (CDT) is presented for solving general bilevel mixed integer nonlinear optimization governed by linear and quadratic knapsack problems. It shows that the challenging knapsack problems can be solved analytically in term of their canonical dual solutions. The existence and uniqueness of these analytical solutions are proved. NP-hardness of the knapsack problems is discussed. A powerful CDT algorithm combined with an alternative iteration and a volume reduction method is proposed for solving the NP-hard bilevel knapsack problems. Application is illustrated by benchmark problems in optimal topology design. The performance and novelty of the proposed method are compared with the popular commercial codes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates the effect of a carbon price on wholesale electricity prices and carbon-pass-through rates in the states comprising the Australian National Electricity Market (NEM). The methodology utilize an agent-based model, which contains many features salient to the NEM including intra-state and inter-state transmission branches, regional location of generators and load centres and accommodation of unit commitment features. The model uses a Direct Current Optimal Power Flow (DC OPF) algorithm to determine optimal dispatch of generation plant, power flows on transmission branches and wholesale prices. The results include sensitivity analysis of carbon prices on wholesale prices and carbon pass-through rates for different states within the NEM. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To increase data availability and accuracy in the coastal zone, especially in the last 5 km to the coast, we present a SCMR (Seamless Combination of Multiple Retrackers) processing strategy to combine sea surface height (SSH) estimates from waveform retrackers of SGDR MLE4, ALES, WLS3 and MB4 for Jason-3 and Saral missions, and of SAMOSA and SAMOSA+ for Sentinel-3A mission in the Australian coastal zone. The SCMR does not require the waveform classification result. It includes two steps: (1) estimating and removing the SSH bias due mainly to the significant wave height (SWH) difference-dependent height differences, and (2) determining the optimal along-track SSH profile by using the Dijkstra algorithm. In the study region, the results show that the SCMR increases the data availability by up to 15% in the last 5 km to the coast and reduces the noise level by 28–34% at the spatial scales < 2.5 km. The validation results against tide gauges show that SCMR-derived SSH estimates achieve a better accuracy than that from any single retracker, with the improvement percentage of 6.26% and 4.94% over 0–10 km and 20–100 km distance bands, respectively. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background and Objectives: Current practices and available resources for nutrition therapy in paediatric intensive care units (PICUs) in the Asia Pacific-Middle East region are expected to differ from western countries. Existing guidelines for nutrition management in critically ill children may not be directly applicable in this region. This paper outlines consensus statements developed by the Asia Pacific-Middle East Consensus Working Group on Nutrition Therapy in the Paediatric Critical Care Environment. Challenges and recommendations unique to the region are described.Methods and Study Design: Following a systematic literature search from 2004-2014, consensus statements were developed for key areas of nutrient delivery in the PICU. This review focused on evidence applicable to the Asia Pacific-Middle East region. Quality of evidence and strength of recommendations were rated according to the Grading of Recommendation Assessment, Development and Evaluation approach.Results: Enteral nutrition (EN) is the preferred mode of nutritional support. Feeding algorithms that optimize EN should be encouraged and must include: assessment and monitoring of nutritional status, selection of feeding route, time to initiate and advance EN, management strategies for EN intolerance and indications for using parenteral nutrition (PN). Despite heterogeneity in nutritional status of patients, availability of resources and diversity of cultures, PICUs in the region should consider involvement of dieticians and/or nutritional support teams.Conclusions: Robust evidence for several aspects of optimal nutrition therapy in PICUs is lacking. Nutritional assessment must be implemented to document prevalence and impact of malnutrition. Nutritional support must be given greater priority in PICUs, with particular emphasis in optimizing EN delivery. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Assessment of occupational exposures is an integral component of population-based studies investigating the epidemiology of occupational diseases. However, all the available methods for exposure assessment have been developed, tested and used in high-income countries. Except for a few studies examining pesticide exposures, there is limited research on whether these methods are appropriate for assessing exposure in LMICs. The aim of this study is to compare a task-specific algorithm-based method (OccIDEAS) to a job-specific matrix method (OAsJEM) in the assessment of asthmagen exposures among healthcare workers in a high-income country and a low- and middle- income country (LMIC) to determine an appropriate assessment method for use in LMICs for future research.Methods: Data were obtained from a national cross-sectional survey of occupational asthmagens exposure in Australia and a cross-sectional survey of occupational chemical exposure among Bhutanese healthcare workers. Exposure was assessed using OccIDEAS and the OAsJEM. Prevalence of exposure to asthmagens and inter-rater agreement were calculated.Results: In Australia, the prevalence was higher for a majority of agents when assessed by OccIDEAS than by the OAsJEM (13 versus 3). OccIDEAS identified exposures to a greater number of agents (16 versus 7). The agreement as indicated by κ (Cohen's Kappa coefficient) for six of the seven agents assessed was poor to fair (0.02 to 0.37). In Bhutan, the prevalence of exposure assessed by OccIDEAS was higher for four of the seven agents and κ was poor for all the four agents assessed (-0.06 to 0.13). The OAsJEM overestimated exposures to high-level disinfectants by assigning exposures to all participants from 10 (Bhutan) and 12 (Australia) ISCO-88 codes; whereas OccIDEAS assigned exposures to varying proportions of participants from these ISCO-codes.Conclusion: There was poor to fair agreement in the assessment of asthmagen exposure in healthcare workers between the two methods. The OAsJEM overestimated the prevalence of certain exposures. As compared to the OAsJEM, OccIDEAS appeared to be more appropriate for evaluating cross-country exposures to asthmagens in healthcare workers due to its inherent quality of assessing task-based determinants and its versatility in being adaptable for use in different countries with different exposure circumstances. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study aims to understand the effects that role‐diverse online communities have on informal carers, particularly in providing support. Australian Facebook communities used to support those involved in the National Disability Insurance Scheme (NDIS) were explored. Social network analysis of an NDIS‐centred community was conducted, based on 909 publicly visible interactions that occurred in May–June and August–September 2019. Two managers of informal NDIS communities were interviewed, the transcripts of which were analysed using NVivo. Results from the two analyses suggest that both an individual carer's attributes and the collective attributes of the network defined the capability of the network to support the carer, often depending on the experiences and expertise of those offering support. Support was unconstrained by role, though differing goals and expectations often impeded collaboration between roles. The outcomes of support provision were shown to affect not only individuals but also the collective network. However, while effective, community spaces currently lack organisational backing and resources available to informal communities are constrained. Findings drawn from this study, which we believe are applicable to a broader, international context, are three‐fold. Firstly, it is recommended that informal support communities clearly define purpose and create multiple channels to ensure that all participants can meet their needs. Secondly, the benefits of participation to organisations should be further explored. Finally, the use of social network analysis as a method in this study has provided significant insights into the communication patterns and activities of the community under study. Future use of SNA in similar studies may provide further insight into the effectiveness and interactions of community‐based support methods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Regional flood frequency analysis (RFFA) is widely used to estimate design floods in ungauged catchments. Both linear and non-linear methods are adopted in RFFA. The development of the non-linear RFFA method Adaptive Neuro-fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) using data from 181 gauged catchments in south-eastern Australia is presented in this study. Three different types of ANFIS models, Fuzzy C-mean (FCM), Subtractive Clustering (SC), and Grid Partitioning (GP) were adopted, and the results were compared with the Quantile Regression Technique (QRT). It was found that FCM performs better (with relative error (RE) values in the range of 38–60%) than the SC (RE of 44–69%) and GP (RE of 42–78%) models. The FCM performs better for smaller to medium ARIs (2 to 20 years) (ARI of five years having the best performance), and in New South Wales, over Victoria. In many aspects, the QRT and FCM models perform very similarly. These developed RFFA models can be used in south-eastern Australia to derive more accurate flood quantiles. The developed method can easily be adapted to other parts of Australia and other countries. The results of this study will assist in updating the Australian Rainfall Runoff (national guide)-recommended RFFA technique. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The prediction of future drought is an effective mitigation tool for assessing adverse consequences of drought events on vital water resources, agriculture, ecosystems and hydrology. Data-driven model predictions using machine learning algorithms are promising tenets for these purposes as they require less developmental time, minimal inputs and are relatively less complex than the dynamic or physical model. This paper authenticates a computationally simple, fast and efficient non-linear algorithm known as extreme learning machine (ELM) for the prediction of Effective Drought Index (EDI) in eastern Australia using input data trained from 1957–2008 and the monthly EDI predicted over the period 2009–2011. The predictive variables for the ELM model were the rainfall and mean, minimum and maximum air temperatures, supplemented by the large-scale climate mode indices of interest as regression covariates, namely the Southern Oscillation Index, Pacific Decadal Oscillation, Southern Annular Mode and the Indian Ocean Dipole moment. To demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed data-driven model a performance comparison in terms of the prediction capabilities and learning speeds was conducted between the proposed ELM algorithm and the conventional artificial neural network (ANN) algorithm trained with Levenberg–Marquardt back propagation. The prediction metrics certified an excellent performance of the ELM over the ANN model for the overall test sites, thus yielding Mean Absolute Errors, Root-Mean Square Errors, Coefficients of Determination and Willmott's Indices of Agreement of 0.277, 0.008, 0.892 and 0.93 (for ELM) and 0.602, 0.172, 0.578 and 0.92 (for ANN) models. Moreover, the ELM model was executed with learning speed 32 times faster and training speed 6.1 times faster than the ANN model. An improvement in the prediction capability of the drought duration and severity by the ELM model was achieved. Based on these results we aver that out of the two machine learning algorithms tested, the ELM was the more expeditious tool for prediction of drought and its related properties. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The equivalent source technique is a powerful and widely used method for processing gravity and magnetic data. Nevertheless, its major drawback is the large computational cost in terms of processing time and computer memory. We present two techniques for reducing the computational cost of equivalent source processing: block-averaging source locations and the gradient-boosted equivalent source algorithm. Through block-averaging, we reduce the number of source coefficients that must be estimated while retaining the minimum desired resolution in the final processed data. With the gradient-boosting method, we estimate the sources coefficients in small batches along overlapping windows, allowing us to reduce the computer memory requirements arbitrarily to conform to the constraints of the available hardware. We show that the combination of block-averaging and gradient-boosted equivalent sources is capable of producing accurate interpolations through tests against synthetic data. Moreover, we demonstrate the feasibility of our method by gridding a gravity data set covering Australia with over 1.7 million observations using a modest personal computer. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this article, a continuous terminal sliding mode control algorithm is proposed for servo motor systems. A novel full-order terminal sliding mode surface is proposed based on the bilimit homogeneous property, such that the sliding motion is finite-time stable independent of the system's initial condition. A new continuous terminal sliding mode control algorithm is proposed to guarantee that the system states reach the sliding surface in finite-time. Not only the robustness is guaranteed by the proposed controller but also the continuity makes the control algorithm more suitable for the servo mechanical systems. Finally, a numerical example is presented to depict the advantages of the proposed control algorithm. An application in the rotary servo system is done to validate the effectiveness of the proposed control strategy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Australian northwest cloudbands (NWCBs) are continental-scale bands of continuous cloud that stretch from northwest to southeast Australia. In earlier studies, where the characteristics of NWCBs and their relationship with precipitation were identified from satellite imagery, there was considerable uncertainty in the results due to limited quality and availability of data. The present study identifies NWCBs from 31 years of satellite data using a pattern-matching algorithm. This new climatology is the longest record based entirely on observations. Our findings include a strong annual cycle in NWCB frequency, with a summer maximum and winter minimum, and a statistically significant increase in annual NWCB days over the period 1984–2014. Physical mechanisms responsible for NWCB occurrences are explored to determine whether there is a fundamental difference between summer and winter NWCBs as hypothesized in earlier studies. Composite analyses are used to reveal that a key difference between these is their genesis mechanisms. Whereas summer NWCBs are triggered by cyclonic disturbances, winter NWCBs tend to form when meridional sea surface temperature gradients trigger baroclinic instability. It was also found that while precipitation is enhanced over parts of Australia during a cloudband day, it is reduced in other regions. During a cloudband day, precipitation extremes are more likely over northwest, central, and southeast Australia, while the probability of extreme precipitation decreases in northeast and southwest Australia. Additionally, cold fronts and NWCBs can interact, leading to enhanced rainfall over Australia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: The detection of harmful alcohol use and the delivery of brief advice in primary care are less than optimal. Given limited health care resources, deciding where best to allocate funding to optimize health outcomes is imperative. A simple data-based tool could be useful when access to specialist health economic advice is unavailable. This study aimed to examine the utility of a simple data-based calculator to facilitate priority setting in general practice for reducing alcohol-related harm.Methods: A simple algorithm was developed within Microsoft Excel to allow comparison of hypothetical intervention scenarios that aimed to increase detection and brief advice for harmful alcohol use in general practice. The calculator accommodated varying implementation costs, size of effect and reach for each scenario created. The incremental costs of the intervention scenarios, the incremental number of successes (i.e. abstinence or drinking at safe levels) and the incremental costs-effectiveness ratio (ICER) were calculated for each hypothetical scenario and compared with a usual care scenario.Results: In the hypothetical scenarios modelled, increasing both the detection of harmful alcohol consumption and the provision of brief advice produced the greatest number of incremental successes above baseline. Increasing detection alone produced fewer incremental successes but was the most cost-effective approach, as indicated by the lowest ICER.Discussion: The data-based calculator provides a simple method of exploring reach and cost-effectiveness outcomes without the need for any specific skills. Although this approach has limitations, the calculator can be used by decision makers to guide intervention planning. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study cross validates the radar reflectivity Z; the rainfall drop size distribution parameter (median volume diameter Do); and the rainfall rate R estimated from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite Precipitation Radar (PR), a combined PR and TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) algorithm (COM), and a C-band dual-polarized ground radar (GR) for TRMM overpasses during the passage of tropical cyclone (TC) and non-TC events over Darwin, Australia. Two overpass events during the passage of TC Carlos and 11 non-TC overpass events are used in this study, and the GR is taken as the reference. It is shown that the correspondence is dependent on the precipitation type whereby events with more (less) stratiform rainfall usually have a positive (negative) bias in the reflectivity and the rainfall rate, whereas in the Do the bias is generally positive but small (large). The COM reflectivity estimates are similar to the PR, but it has a smaller bias in the Do for most of the greater stratiform events. This suggests that combining the TMI with the PR adjusts the Do toward the "correct" direction if the GR is taken as the reference. Moreover, the association between the TRMM estimates and the GR for the two TC events, which are highly stratiform in nature, is similar to that observed for the highly stratiform non-TC events (there is no significant difference), but it differs considerably from that observed for the majority of the highly convective non-TC events. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With incomplete data, the "missing at random" (MAR) assumption is widely understood to enable unbiased estimation with appropriate methods. While the need to assess the plausibility of MAR and to perform sensitivity analyses considering "missing not at random" (MNAR) scenarios has been emphasized, the practical difficulty of these tasks is rarely acknowledged. With multivariable missingness, what MAR means is difficult to grasp, and in many MNAR scenarios unbiased estimation is possible using methods commonly associated with MAR. Directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) have been proposed as an alternative framework for specifying practically accessible assumptions beyond the MAR-MNAR dichotomy. However, there is currently no general algorithm for deciding how to handle the missing data given a specific DAG. Here we construct "canonical" DAGs capturing typical missingness mechanisms in epidemiologic studies with incomplete data on exposure, outcome, and confounding factors. For each DAG, we determine whether common target parameters are "recoverable," meaning that they can be expressed as functions of the available data distribution and thus estimated consistently, or whether sensitivity analyses are necessary. We investigate the performance of available-case and multiple-imputation procedures. Using data from waves 1–3 of the Longitudinal Study of Australian Children (2004–2008), we illustrate how our findings can guide the treatment of missing data in point-exposure studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Missing data is a common problem in epidemiological studies, and is particularly prominent in longitudinal data, which involve multiple waves of data collection. Traditional multiple imputation (MI) methods (fully conditional specification (FCS) and multivariate normal imputation (MVNI)) treat repeated measurements of the same time-dependent variable as just another 'distinct' variable for imputation and therefore do not make the most of the longitudinal structure of the data. Only a few studies have explored extensions to the standard approaches to account for the temporal structure of longitudinal data. One suggestion is the two-fold fully conditional specification (two-fold FCS) algorithm, which restricts the imputation of a time-dependent variable to time blocks where the imputation model includes measurements taken at the specified and adjacent times. To date, no study has investigated the performance of two-fold FCS and standard MI methods for handling missing data in a time-varying covariate with a non-linear trajectory over time - a commonly encountered scenario in epidemiological studies.Methods: We simulated 1000 datasets of 5000 individuals based on the Longitudinal Study of Australian Children (LSAC). Three missing data mechanisms: missing completely at random (MCAR), and a weak and a strong missing at random (MAR) scenarios were used to impose missingness on body mass index (BMI) for age z-scores; a continuous time-varying exposure variable with a non-linear trajectory over time. We evaluated the performance of FCS, MVNI, and two-fold FCS for handling up to 50% of missing data when assessing the association between childhood obesity and sleep problems.Results: The standard two-fold FCS produced slightly more biased and less precise estimates than FCS and MVNI. We observed slight improvements in bias and precision when using a time window width of two for the two-fold FCS algorithm compared to the standard width of one.Conclusion: We recommend the use of FCS or MVNI in a similar longitudinal setting, and when encountering convergence issues due to a large number of time points or variables with missing values, the two-fold FCS with exploration of a suitable time window. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background One of the strategies proven most successful in curbing rising rates of childhood obesity involves targeting parents as agents of change. Prior studies have focused on what messages to communicate, but few have investigated how they should be communicated. Objective To identify the channels most effective for communicating with parents of overweight and obese children and understand whether their use of parenting information sources differs from others in the community. Design/setting This study utilizes data from the Longitudinal Study of Australian Children ( LSAC). Families were included if weight and height information was available for parents and children at three data collection points: Waves 1, 2 and 4 (collected 2004, 2006 and 2010, respectively, n = 5107). Analysis A priori and a posteriori segmentation methods identified groups of parents that were similar in the sources used to obtain information about parenting, and examined whether some segments were more likely to have obese children. Results Four segments were identified that differed in their information source use: the 'personal networks', 'books', 'official sources' and 'mixed approach' segments. The 'official sources' and 'mixed approach' segments were most likely to have obese children, and they used doctors, government/community organizations and friends to obtain information on parenting. These segments were also less educated and had lower employment. Conclusions Messages are most likely to reach families with obese children if communicated through doctors, government publications and community organizations. Further, messages targeting social groupings of parents will leverage the power of advice from friends, which is another valuable information source for this group. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Evidence-informed policymaking is more likely if organisations have cultures that promote research use and invest in resources that facilitate staff engagement with research. Measures of organisations' research use culture and capacity are needed to assess current capacity, identify opportunities for improvement, and examine the impact of capacity-building interventions. The aim of the current study was to develop a comprehensive system to measure and score organisations' capacity to engage with and use research in policymaking, which we entitled ORACLe (Organisational Research Access, Culture, and Leadership).Method: We used a multifaceted approach to develop ORACLe. Firstly, we reviewed the available literature to identify key domains of organisational tools and systems that may facilitate research use by staff. We interviewed senior health policymakers to verify the relevance and applicability of these domains. This information was used to generate an interview schedule that focused on seven key domains of organisational capacity. The interview was pilot-tested within four Australian policy agencies. A discrete choice experiment (DCE) was then undertaken using an expert sample to establish the relative importance of these domains. This data was used to produce a scoring system for ORACLe.Results: The ORACLe interview was developed, comprised of 23 questions addressing seven domains of organisational capacity and tools that support research use, including (1) documented processes for policymaking; (2) leadership training; (3) staff training; (4) research resources (e.g. database access); and systems to (5) generate new research, (6) undertake evaluations, and (7) strengthen relationships with researchers. From the DCE data, a conditional logit model was estimated to calculate total scores that took into account the relative importance of the seven domains. The model indicated that our expert sample placed the greatest importance on domains (2), (3) and (4).Conclusion: We utilised qualitative and quantitative methods to develop a system to assess and score organisations' capacity to engage with and apply research to policy. Our measure assesses a broad range of capacity domains and identifies the relative importance of these capacities. ORACLe data can be used by organisations keen to increase their use of evidence to identify areas for further development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Seasonal rainfall forecasts in Australia are issued based on concurrent sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) using a Bayesian model averaging (BMA) approach. The SSTA fields are derived from the Predictive Ocean-Atmosphere Model for Australia (POAMA) initialized in the preceding season. This study investigates the merits of the rainfall forecasted using POAMA SSTAs in contrast to that forecasted using a multimodel combination of SSTAs derived using five existing models. In addition, seasonal rainfall forecasts derived from multimodel and POAMA SSTA fields are subsequently combined to obtain a single weighted forecast over Australia. These three forecasts are compared against 'idealized' forecasts where observed SSTAs are used instead of those predicted. The results indicate that while seasonal rainfall forecasts derived using multimodel-based SSTA indices offer improvements in selected seasons over a majority of grid cells in comparison to the case where a single SSTA model is used in two seasons, these improvements are not as significant as the improvements in the SSTA field that drive the rainfall forecasting model. The forecasts derived from the combination of multimodel and POAMA SSTA indices forecasts are found to offer greater improvements over the multimodel or the POAMA forecasts for a majority of grid cells in all seasons. It is also observed that these combined forecasts are touching the upper limits of forecastability, which are reached when observed SSTAs are used to forecast the rainfall. This suggests that further improvements in rainfall forecasting are only possible through the use of an improved forecasting algorithm, and not the driver (SSTA) information used in the current study. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A number of antiviral agents used against Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) infection and hepatitis B virus (HBV) mono or co-infection have been associated with real nephrotoxicity (including tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (TDF), atazanavir, indinavir and lopinavir) or apparent changes in renal function (e.g. cobicistat, ritonavir, rilpivirine and dolutegravir). Patients with HIV are at higher risk of acute and chronic renal dysfunction, so baseline assessment and ongoing monitoring of renal function is an important part of routine management of patients with HIV. Given the paucity of evidence in this area, we sought to establish a consensus view on how routine monitoring could be performed in Australian patients on ART regimens, especially those involving TDF. A group of nephrologists and prescribers (an HIV physician and a hepatologist) were assembled by Gilead to discuss practical and reasonable renal management strategies for patients particularly those on TDF-based combination regimens (in the case of those with HIV-infection) or on TDF-monotherapy (in the case of HBV-mono infection). The group considered which investigations should be performed as part of routine practice, their frequency, and when specialist renal referral is warranted. The algorithm presented suggests testing for serum creatinine along with plasma phosphate and an assessment of urinary protein (rather than albumin) and glucose. Here we advocate baseline tests of renal function at initiation of therapy. If creatinine excretion inhibitors (e.g. cobicistat or rilpivirine) are used as part of the ART regimen, we suggest creatinine is rechecked at 4 weeks and this value used as the new baseline. Repeat testing is suggested at 3-monthly intervals for a year and then at least yearly thereafter if no abnormalities are detected. In patients with abnormal baseline results, renal function assessment should be performed at least 6 monthly. In HBV mono-infected patients advocate that a similar testing protocol may be logical. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An atmospheric correction algorithm for medium-resolution satellite data over general water surfaces (open/coastal, estuarine and inland waters) has been assessed in Australian coastal waters. In situ measurements at four match-up sites were used with 21 Landsat 8 images acquired between 2014 and 2017. Three aerosol sources (AERONET, MODIS ocean aerosol and climatology) were used to test the impact of the selection of aerosol optical depth (AOD) and Ångström coefficient on the retrieved accuracy. The initial results showed that the satellite-derived water-leaving reflectance can have good agreement with the in situ measurements, provided that the sun glint is handled effectively. Although the AERONET aerosol data performed best, the contemporary satellite-derived aerosol information from MODIS or an aerosol climatology could also be as effective, and should be assessed with further in situ measurements. Two sun glint correction strategies were assessed for their ability to remove the glint bias. The most successful one used the average of two shortwave infrared (SWIR) bands to represent sun glint and subtracted it from each band. Using this sun glint correction method, the mean all-band error of the retrieved water-leaving reflectance at the Lucinda Jetty Coastal Observatory (LJCO) in north east Australia was close to 4% and unbiased over 14 acquisitions. A persistent bias in the other strategy was likely due to the sky radiance being non-uniform for the selected images. In regard to future options for an operational sun glint correction, the simple method may be sufficient for clear skies until a physically based method has been established. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study we present the retrieval of the column-averaged dry air mole fraction of carbon dioxide (XCO2) from the TanSat observations using the ACOS (Atmospheric CO2 Observations from Space) algorithm. The XCO2 product has been validated with collocated ground-based measurements from the Total Carbon Column Observing Network (TCCON) for 2 years of TanSat data from 2017 to 2018. Based on the correlation of the XCO2 error over land with goodness of fit in three spectral bands at 0.76, 1.61 and 2.06 μm, we applied an a posteriori bias correction to TanSat retrievals. For overpass averaged results, XCO2 retrievals show a standard deviation (SD) of ~2.45 ppm and a positive bias of ~0.27 ppm compared to collocated TCCON sites. The validation also shows a relatively higher positive bias and variance against TCCON over high-latitude regions. Three cases to evaluate TanSat target mode retrievals are investigated, including one field campaign at Dunhuang with measurements by a greenhouse gas analyzer deployed on an unmanned aerial vehicle and two cases with measurements by a ground-based Fourier-transform spectrometer in Beijing. The results show the retrievals of all footprints, except footprint-6, have relatively low bias (within ~2 ppm). In addition, the orbital XCO2 distributions over Australia and Northeast China between TanSat and the second Orbiting Carbon Observatory (OCO-2) on 20 April 2017 are compared. It shows that the mean XCO2 from TanSat is slightly lower than that of OCO-2 with an average difference of ~0.85 ppm. A reasonable agreement in XCO2 distribution is found over Australia and Northeast China between TanSat and OCO-2. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]