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Industrial revolution and fast deforestation in 20th century pushes the earth to face climate change. Climate change became one of the most important global environmental challenges of the 21st century. Besides other weather abnormalities it is potential threat to world food security as agriculture production is directly dependent on various weather parameters. Even a small alteration in climate, adversely affects agriculture by decreasing the production. Global temperatures have already increased by 0.70°C over the past century and prediction of more rise of temperature is there. Possible changes in temperature, precipitation and CO2 concentration are expected to significantly impact crop growth. India could experience a 40% decline in agricultural productivity by the 2080s. Various food grain crops are going to affect badly under the temperature rise situation. It has been projected that under the scenario of a 2.50°C to 4.90°C temperature rise, rice yields will drop by 32% to 40% and wheat yields by 41% to 52%. This paper summarized study related to climate change projections and its impact on production of various crops. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Deployment of electric vehicles (EVs) is being widely used by governments across the world as a policy tool to mitigate the catastrophic effects of global warming and climate change. However, the demand for EVs has been slow in many large automotive markets, including India. To increase the uptake of EVs in India, the central government has introduced a new consumer incentive program and a special tax rate for EVs. In this paper, we estimate the cost-effectiveness of these EV promotion programs in achieving CO2 emission reduction for each State in India. We use emission data of the chosen vehicle and CO2 emission intensity data of each State's power grid for computation. The results are then compared to other benchmark investments in climate change mitigation. The findings indicate that subsidizing EVs may not be the most cost-efficient method to achieve CO2 reduction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is one of the most dangerous threats to human beings, and therefore, it is of great importance for the researchers to inform the policy makers of the threats of climate change and global warming. One of the main causes of climate change is the greenhouse gas emissions, particularly CO2 emissions. In this paper, we try to find a nexus between energy consumption, CO2 emissions, and economic growth in the United States, China, and India, known as three most polluting countries in the world. For this purpose, we applied the wavelet correlation and the partial wavelet coherence approaches during the period 1971–2013. The empirical results for the United States show that the GDP is positively correlated with the CO2 emissions and energy consumption in all frequencies. For China, there is a significant positive relationship between the GDP and CO2 emissions/energy consumption for the short-term horizon. However, for India, although there is a significant positive relationship between the GDP and CO2 emissions, the nexus between the GDP and the energy consumption is not clear. Furthermore, the pollution haven hypothesis was confirmed by the obtained empirical results. Based on our study, we suggest the policy makers in these three countries making supportive decisions for the producers to use modern environment-friendly technologies and renewable energies in their products. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Scientific research has revealed that global warming is getting irreversible with the passage of time and it is largely a human-induced phenomenon. India is one of the top three emitters of carbon dioxide in the world. However, the general public in India is unaware of what actually causes anthropogenic (human-induced) climate change. This study is undertaken to assess the level of climate change awareness and willingness to adopt mitigation actions by the students (N = 657) of higher education in Tripura, a small state in North East India, bordering Bangladesh on three sides. In addition, the study also attempts to draw whether there exist any correlations between the level of media usage with the level of climate change awareness and the level of climate change awareness with the level of willingness to adopt climate change mitigation actions. The results show that students of higher education in Tripura have a high level of climate change awareness, and the primary sources for climate change-related information are the Internet, TV, and newspapers. The scientists were the most trusted sources of climate change-related information followed by the mass media. The findings also establish that the students are willing to adopt climate change mitigation actions, even if it costs them something extra. The students who are willing (7.6%) and extremely willing (65.4%) to embrace climate change mitigation actions constituted more than 70% of the total respondents of the survey. The paper concludes that the level of willingness to adopt climate change mitigation actions was found to be significantly correlated with the level of awareness of the consequences of climate change when media are key actors in the dissemination of information; however, the level of understanding about solutions for climate change is not correlated with the level of awareness about the causes of climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global warming is the average temperature of the earth's surface which has increased over the past century by about 0.6 °C. This rising temperature may vary precipitation patterns, more frequent droughts, rise in sea level and intense storms and can be termed as climate change. To understand uneven precipitation pattern for monsoon dominated region like India, there is a need to study cloud processes at high resolution with the help of cloud microphysical properties. Ocean is the major and primary source of cloud whereas local water bodies and re-evaporated water over land could be secondary source. Paper focuses over ocean (Arabian Sea) as well as over land (central India) to know the effect of global warming on cloud microphysical properties such as cloud effective radius and cloud liquid water content. Warming signal in terms of rise in sea surface temperature (0.1 °C/decade) as well as rise in surface air temperature (0.05 °C/decade) are observed over Arabian Sea and central India respectively. Satellite data show an increasing (0.5 µm/decade) trend in cloud effective radius over Arabian Sea, whereas it decreases (− 0.1 µm/decade) over central India. Increasing trend in temperature and cloud properties is may be due to warming signal. Aerosol concentration over ocean and land further helped to understand cloud processes with cloud microphysical properties. Paper will focus on the effect of warming signal in cloud properties over Arabian Sea and central India. This type of high resolution study may help to understand cloud processes which in turn may help to understand precipitation patterns. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global warming is a biggest issue around the world. In this research paper, the temporal and spatial trend analysis of seasonal and annual rainfall on Bhogavo River watersheds in Sabarmati lower basin of Gujarat state of India has been analysed using the data of 11 rain gauge stations installed in Bhogavo watershed. Linear regression, Mann–Kendall Test, Sen's slope test and innovative trend analysis methods are used to carry out monthly and annual rainfall trend analysis. In addition to the rainfall analysis, a number of rainy days change in magnitude as a percentage of mean rainfall have also been analysed using linear regression and Sen's slope method, respectively. The IDW method is used to develop a spatial distribution of annual and seasonal rainfall trend over the study area. From the results, it is concluded that annual rainfall shown increasing (positive) trend at nine stations out of 11 stations. The highest value of change in magnitude of trend as a percentage of mean monthly rainfall has been obtained in the month of July, attributing increasing trend at Sayla station and lowest value magnitude of trend as a percentage of mean rainfall in the monthly rainfall has been obtained in the month of August, attributing decreasing trend at Bavla station. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Impacts of global warming and local scale urbanization on precipitation are evident from observations; hence both must be considered in future projections of urban precipitation. Dynamic regional models at a fine spatial resolution can capture the signature of urbanization on precipitation, however simulations for multiple decades are computationally expensive. In contrast, statistical regional models are computationally inexpensive but incapable of assessing the impacts of urbanization due to the stationary relationship between predictors and predictand. This paper aims to develop a unique modelling framework with a demonstration for Mumbai, India, where future urbanization is projected using a Markov Chain Cellular Automata approach, long term projections with climate change impacts are performed using statistical downscaling and urban impacts are simulated with a dynamic regional model for limited number of years covering different precipitation characteristics. The evaluation of the statistical downscaling methodology over historical time period reveals large underestimation of the extreme rainfall, which is improved effectively by applying another regression model, for extreme days. The limited runs of dynamic downscaling models with different stages of urbanization for Mumbai, India, reveal spatially non uniform changes in precipitation, occurring primarily at the higher quantiles. The statistical and dynamical outputs are further integrated using quantile transformation for precipitation projection in Mumbai during 2050s. The projections show dominant impacts of urbanization compared to those from large scale changing patterns. The uniqueness of this computationally efficient framework lies in an integration of global and local factors for precipitation projections through a conjugal statistical–dynamical approach. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The urban population in India is growing at a fast rate along with the growth in the construction of residential concrete houses. Though a majority of these residential buildings are still of naturally ventilated type due to the lower-middle-income group of the population, these buildings will be subjected to indoor overheating with climate change in future climatic years. This can cause severe thermal discomfort among the indoor occupants and reduce their well-being and satisfaction towards the indoor environment, and increase the possibilities of heat-related illness and even death. This paper presents the results of the effect of climate change on the thermal comfort of indoor occupants of low-rise naturally-ventilated buildings in two different physiographic and climatic regions of eastern India. The assessment methodology of indoor overheating hours and indoor overheating degree based on adaptive temperature limits are used to evaluate the indoor condition. Different simulation variants of archetypes, orientation, wall types, ventilation rates, roof types, etc. resulted in 13,824 conditions. The results show that these concrete dwellings existing in the region are unable to suppress the effects of global warming and the indoor environment deteriorates in these buildings in future conditions. The decrease in the number of annual overcooling hours caused by the increasing ambient temperature due to global warming is lesser than the increase in the number of annual overheating hours, which ultimately results in the decline of the number of indoor annual comfortable hours. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, using the NCAR Community Earth System Model (CESM1.2.2), we investigate the changes in the characteristics of the summer monsoon low pressure systems (LPS) over India in a twenty-first century climate change simulation corresponding to the RCP8.5 scenario. A slight weakening in monsoon circulation and an increase in mean summer monsoon precipitation over India are simulated in a warmer climate, consistent with several previous studies. The weakening of the monsoon circulation is associated with a pair of anticyclonic anomalies straddling the equator in the low level, weakening the cross-equatorial monsoonal flow from the southern hemisphere. These low-level circulation anomalies appear to be robust features in the equatorial Indian Ocean under climate change. An increase in moisture flux is also simulated over the Indian subcontinent. However, we find no significant change in the number of LPS or their spatial distribution under the RCP8.5 scenario. This is attributed to a small but non-significant decrease in the low-level meridional cyclonic shear in zonal winds. An increase in the intensity and frequency of extreme precipitation over India in a warmer world is simulated and is likely associated with an increase in moisture content. Our study shows that the fractional contribution of LPS to mean and extreme precipitation over India in a warmer world is likely unchanged, but the frequency and intensity of extreme events are larger. Because of the diversity in the results from single model studies on LPS characteristics in a warmer world, a future study that uses CMIP6 multi-model data would be valuable to assess the robustness and the uncertainty in changes in LPS activities under climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In contrast to the "wet gets wetter and dry gets drier" paradigm, here, using observations and climate model simulations, we show that the mean rainfall over the semi‐arid northwest parts of India and Pakistan has increased by 10%–50% during 1901–2015 and is expected to increase by 50%–200% under moderate greenhouse gas (GHG) scenarios. The GHG forcing primarily drives the westward expansion of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) and is facilitated by a westward expansion of the Indian Ocean (IO) warm pool. Mechanistically, the westward expansion of ISMR is a consequence of the episodic genesis over IO and the northward propagation of an expanded Inter‐Tropical Convergence Zone on a sub‐seasonal time scale. While an adaptation strategy to increased hydrological disasters is a must, harnessing the augmented rainfall would lead to a substantial boost in food productivity, bringing transformative changes in the socio‐economic condition of people in the region. Plain Language Summary: An apparent eastward shift of the Indian monsoon has led to the arid conditions in the west and north‐west regions of India where monsoon was once active, and the Indus Valley civilizations thrived (5,300–3,300‐year BP). A reversal of the process and a westward expansion of the present‐day Indian monsoon would transform the west and north‐west India to a humid "monsoonal" climate and provide food security to the expanding population of the country. The present study shows that the Indian monsoon is indeed expanding to the west with 10% decrease of mean rainfall in the northeast and 25% increase in the west and north‐west during the historical period with a potential of 50%–100% increase in the north‐west under SSP2–4.5. Harvesting the increased rainfall has the potential for significant increase in food productivity bringing in transformative changes in the socio‐economic condition of people of the region. Key Points: Global warming could potentially cause a westward expansion of the Indian monsoonRainfall in northwest India and Pakistan has increased and will continue to rise due to greenhouse gasesIncreased monsoon rainfall can improve food productivity and socio‐economic conditions in the region [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Children in developing countries such as India will experience severe consequences of climate change. Primary school students, in particular, are the most vulnerable to extreme weather conditions, such as heat waves intensifying due to climate change. This will adversely impair their development, well-being, and learning outcomes. However, significant research gaps exist in understanding and mitigating children's vulnerabilities. There is an urgent need for a deeper understanding of the impact of heat waves on children's health and well-being in India. Further, the discussion on the state of heat safety in Indian primary schools is limited. This study addresses these gaps by surveying 335 primary school teachers in seven Indian cities. The data gathered from the field survey offers a better understanding of classroom experiences and challenges encountered by children and teachers during heat waves. It underscores several aspects of students' vulnerability to heat exposure and its adverse impact on their health, such as absence from school, physical symptoms of heat distress, etc. Furthermore, it highlights the pressing need for classroom heat risk management in light of climate change and makes several policy prescriptions in primary schools. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We investigated rainfall patterns over India for the period from 1951 to 2010 and predicted changes for the next century (2051–2100) with an assumed 4K warming from large ensemble experiments (190 members). We focused on rainfall patterns during two periods of present-day climate (1951–1980 and 1981–2010) and their projected changes for the near and far future (2051–2080 and 2081–2110). Our analysis found that the northeastern region of India and some southern regions received higher rainfall during the period of 1951–2010, which is consistent with daily observations from the Asian Precipitation Highly Resolved Observational Data Integration Towards Evaluation (APHRODITE). In the warming climate, rainfall events in India are predicted to carry more precipitation, with the northeast and southern regions experiencing stronger rainfall events. The frequency and intensity of these events (with more than 20 mm of rainfall per day, on average) are also expected to increase. Overall, our study suggests that water-related disasters such as flooding and landslides could be much worse in India in the future due to climate warming. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Gram pod borer, Helicoverpa armigera (Hub.) is the major insect pest of pigeonpea and prediction of number of generations (no. of gen.) and generation time (gen. time) using growing degree days (GDD) approach during three future climate change periods viz., Near (NP), Distant (DP) and Far Distant (FDP) periods at eleven major pigeonpea growing locations of India was attempted. Multi-model ensemble of Maximum (Tmax) and Minimum (Tmin) temperature data of four Representative Concentration Pathways viz., RCP 2.6, 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5 of Coupled Model Inter comparison Project 5 (CMIP5) models was adopted here. The increase in projected Tmax and Tmin are significant during 3 climate change periods (CCPs) viz., the NP, DP and FDP over base line (BL) period under four RCP scenarios at all locations and would be higher (4.7–5.1 °C) in RCP 8.5 and in FDP. More number of annual (10–17) and seasonal (5–8) gens. are expected to occur with greater percent increase in FDP (8 to 38%) over base line followed by DP (7 to 22%) and NP (5to 10%) periods with shortened annual gen. time (4 to 27%) across 4 RCPs. The reduction of crop duration was substantial in short, medium and long duration pigeonpeas at all locations across 4 RCPs and 3 CCPs. The seasonal no.of gen. is expected to increase (5 to 35%) with shortened gen. time (4 to 26%) even with reduced crop duration across DP and FDP climate periods of 6.0 and 8.5 RCPs in LD pigeonpea. More no. of gen. of H. armigera with reduced gen. time are expected to occur at Ludhiana, Coimbatore, Mohanpur, Warangal and Akola locations over BL period in 4 RCPs when normal duration of pigeonpeas is considered. Geographical location (66 to 72%), climate period (11 to 19%), RCPs (5–7%) and their interaction (0.04–1%) is vital and together explained more than 90% of the total variation in future pest scenario. The findings indicate that the incidence of H. armigera would be higher on pigeonpea during ensuing CCPs in India under global warming context. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article examines the relationships between technological innovation and environmental quality in India relying on the availability of annual data from 1980 to 2018. Both inward remittances and economic growth are also considered as key determinants in CO2 emissions and technological innovation functions. The result from utilizing autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing cointegration approach indicates the existence of long‐run relationship between the series. The combined cointegration test is also used as a result robust checking and validating the long‐run relationship. While considering the carbon dioxide emissions function, the findings document that technological innovation and economic growth degrade environmental quality in India via promoting atmospheric emissions in the long‐run, whereas U‐shaped relationship between inward remittances and carbon dioxide emissions is established. Further considering the technological innovation function, findings clearly indicate that both carbon dioxide emissions and economic growth promote the new technological innovation in the long‐run and also fails to confirm the inverted U‐shaped relationship between remittances inflows and technological innovation. On the policy front, we suggest that technological innovation should be made eco‐friendly and heavy utilization of inward remittances on pollution‐driving households' appliances need to be discouraged in India for mitigating both climate change and global warming in the long‐run. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article examines the structural aspects of climate vulnerabilities in the context of monsoon failures. The paper is based on a unique household survey, conducted in Tamil Nadu, India. The study uses a rural differentiation framework to interrogate unequal vulnerabilities to monsoon failures, based on measures such as Gini coefficients and Lorenz curves of monetary losses. Results show that negative consequences of climate change in general, and monsoon failures in particular, intensify pre-existing socio-economic disparities. When the rural differentiation theory is applied in a broader sense, the analysis shows that landed and farming households have greater exposure and losses. When we move beyond these aggregate categories, the revelation is that households with pre-existing disadvantages such as marginal landholders, subsistence farmers and agricultural workers are more vulnerable. • Global warming affects agriculture in South Asia in a major way through monsoon failures. • Vulnerability to monsoon failures can be measured by associated monetary losses. • These losses are highly unevenly distributed, pointing to significant inequality in impacts. • Landless households, marginal holders and subsistence farmers have higher losses. • Climate change intensifies existing structural disadvantages. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Efforts have been made to quantify the spatio-temporal malaria transmission intensity over India using the dynamical malaria model, namely, Vector-borne Disease Community Model of International Centre for Theoretical Physics Trieste (VECTRI). The likely effect of climate change in the variability of malaria transmission intensity over different parts of India is also investigated. The Historical data and future projection scenarios of the rainfall and temperature derived from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) model output are used for this purpose. The Entomological Inoculation Rate (EIR) and Vector are taken as quantifiers of malaria transmission intensity. It is shown that the maximum number of malaria cases over India occur during the Sept–Oct months, whereas the minimum during the Feb–Apr months. The malaria transmission intensity as well as length of transmission season over India is likely to increase in the future climate as a result of global warming. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There is increasing evidence that climate change will strongly affect tea cultivation. It will be one of the challenging issues, particularly for the tea plantations of Assam, India. Based on a questionnaire survey carried out in four major tea-growing regions of Assam, viz., Upper Assam, South Bank, North Bank and Cachar, the study analyses tea growers' awareness of climate change, its impact on tea, adaptive approaches undertaken and future strategies. Majority of respondents were aware of climate change and its effect on tea production. Tea growers attributed prolong drought, excessive precipitation within a short period, temperature extremes, increase in insect and disease infestation, the emergence of new insect pest species, increased weed infestation and wind velocity as underlying effects of climate change. Results also specified that tea growers had a positive approach towards adaptive management strategies to mitigate climate change. Adaptive measures executed to combat climate change included rainwater harvesting, irrigation, afforestation, biodiversity conservation, soil mulching and creation of wind barriers. As future management strategies, tea growers have opted to gradually replace synthetic fertilisers with organic manures and pesticides, construct anti-erosion measures along riversides and embankments, generate awareness programs among the workers and other residents on conserving biodiversity, generate clean energy for tea production and cultivate climate tolerant/resistant cultivars. The present study will be helpful to make more informed future strategies regarding best practices for tea cultivation under a changing climate for tea-growing regions all over the world. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Indian summer monsoon is an integral part of the global climate system. As its seasonal rainfall plays a crucial role in India's agriculture and shapes many other aspects of life, it affects the livelihood of a fifth of the world's population. It is therefore highly relevant to assess its change under potential future climate change. Global climate models within the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) indicated a consistent increase in monsoon rainfall and its variability under global warming. Since the range of the results of CMIP5 was still large and the confidence in the models was limited due to partly poor representation of observed rainfall, the updates within the latest generation of climate models in CMIP6 are of interest. Here, we analyze 32 models of the latest CMIP6 exercise with regard to their annual mean monsoon rainfall and its variability. All of these models show a substantial increase in June-to-September (JJAS) mean rainfall under unabated climate change (SSP5-8.5) and most do also for the other three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways analyzed (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0). Moreover, the simulation ensemble indicates a linear dependence of rainfall on global mean temperature with a high agreement between the models independent of the SSP if global warming is the dominant forcing of the monsoon dynamics as it is in the 21st century; the multi-model mean for JJAS projects an increase of 0.33 mm d -1 and 5.3 % per kelvin of global warming. This is significantly higher than in the CMIP5 projections. Most models project that the increase will contribute to the precipitation especially in the Himalaya region and to the northeast of the Bay of Bengal, as well as the west coast of India. Interannual variability is found to be increasing in the higher-warming scenarios by almost all models. The CMIP6 simulations largely confirm the findings from CMIP5 models, but show an increased robustness across models with reduced uncertainties and updated magnitudes towards a stronger increase in monsoon rainfall. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The overlap in sources of greenhouse gas and local air pollutant emissions creates scope for policy measures to limit global warming and improve air quality simultaneously. In a first step, we derive estimates for the air pollution mortality-related component of the social cost of atmospheric release for 6 pollutants and 56 regions in the world. Combining these estimates with emission inventory data highlights that sector contributions to greenhouse gas emissions and air pollution health impacts differ widely across regions. Next, simulations of future emission pathways consistent with the 2 °C and 1.5 °C targets illustrate that strengthening climate policy ambition raises the total value of air quality co-benefits despite lower marginal co-benefits per tonne of greenhouse gas emissions abated. Finally, we use results from a multi-model ensemble to quantify and compare the value of health-related ambient air quality co-benefits of climate policy across sectors and regions. On the global level, overall air quality co-benefits range from $8 to $40 per tonne of greenhouse gases abated in 2030, with median across models and scenarios of $18/tCO2e. These results mask strong differentiation across regions and sectors, with median co-benefits from mitigation in the residential and service sectors in India exceeding $500/tCO2e. By taking a sector- and region-specific perspective, the results presented here reveal promising channels to improve human health outcomes and to ratchet up greenhouse gas reduction efforts to bridge the gap between countries' pledges and the global targets of the Paris Agreement. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It is well recognized that the global climate has been warming and it can have adverse regional impacts in the future. Besides producing changes in mean climate, global warming can also substantially alters the weather and climate extremes. Considering the impact of weather extremes on agriculture as well as water resource management in an agrarian country like India, present study aims to characterize future changes in precipitation extremes in northeast monsoon season (October–November–December) over south peninsular India based on statistically downscaled high-resolution NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX-GDDP) datasets. This NEX-GDDP dataset simulates the mean rainfall reasonably well. There may be an increase in precipitation in near (5% under RCP 4.5 and 11% under RCP 8.5) and far future (21% and 38% under RCP4.5 and RCP 8.5 respectively). Future climate projections indicate that both the intensity and frequency of precipitation extremes in most parts of the south peninsular India may increase under both the warming scenarios during northeast monsoon season. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: The nested pattern in the geographical distribution of three Indian owlets, resulting in a gradient of endemicity, is hypothesized to be an impact of historical climate change. In current time, the Forest Owlet Athene blewitti is endemic to central India, and its range is encompassed within the ranges of the Jungle Owlet Glaucidium radiatum (distributed through South Asia) and Spotted Owlet Athene brama (distributed through Iran, South and Southeast Asia). Another phylogenetically close species, Little Owl Athene noctua, which is largely Palearctic in distribution, is hypothesized to have undergone severe range reduction during the Last Glacial Maximum, showing a postglacial expansion. The present study tests hypotheses on the possible role of Quaternary climatic fluctuations in shaping geographical ranges of owlets. Methods: We used primary field observations, open access data, and climatic niche modeling to construct climatic niches of four owlets for four periods, the Last Interglacial (~120–140 Ka), Last Glacial Maximum (~22 Ka), Mid‐Holocene (~6 Ka), and Current (1960–1990). We performed climatic niche extent, breadth, and overlap analyses and tested if climatically suitable areas for owlets are nested in a relatively stable climate. Results: Climatically suitable areas for all owlets examined underwent cycles of expansion and reduction or a gradual expansion or reduction since the Last Interglacial. The Indian owlets show significant climatic niche overlap in the current period. Climatically suitable areas for Little Owl shifted southwards during the Last Glacial Maximum and expanded northwards in the postglaciation period. For each owlet, the modeled climatic niches were nested in climatically stable areas. Main Conclusions: The study highlights the impact of Quaternary climate change in shaping the present distribution of owlets. This is relevant to the current scenario of climate change and global warming and can help inform conservation strategies, especially for the extremely range‐restricted Forest Owlet. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It is widely believed that power generation by burning fossil fuel like coal, gas/oil causes global warming. The 21st session of the Conference of Parties held in Paris in December 2015 aimed to strengthen the global response to the threat of climate change. India communicated the Intended Nationally Determined Contribution target for the above conference with aim to achieve 175,000 MW renewable energy by year 2022 and about 40% cumulative installed capacity from non-fossil fuel by year 2030. To make an assessment of possibility of achieving this goal, we estimated the source-wise installed capacity in year 2030 based on hydro and renewable energy potential in India, proposed Compound Annual Growth Rate for year 2016-2030 and capacity addition trend in leading economy and compared the estimate with the Intended Nationally Determined Contribution target. The study indicates that with the present state of development of the sector, India is likely to fall short of the target of 175,000 MW renewable energy installed capacity in year 2022, but it will achieve the target of having more than 40% installed capacity from non-fossil fuel by year 2030. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The main source of sea surface temperature (SST) variability in the Tropical Atlantic at interannual time scales is the Equatorial Mode or Atlantic El Niño. It has been shown to affect the adjacent continents and also remote regions, leading to a weakened Indian Monsoon and promoting La Niña-type anomalies over the Pacific. However, its effects in a warmer climate are unknown. This work analyses the impact of the Equatorial Mode at the end of the twenty first century by means of sensitivity experiments with an atmosphere general circulation model. The prescribed boundary conditions for the future climate are based on the outputs from models participating in the coupled model intercomparison project-phase V. Our results suggest that even if the characteristics of the Equatorial Mode at the end of the twenty first century remained equal to those of the twentieth century, there will be an eastward shift of the main rainfall positive anomalies in the Tropical Atlantic and a weakening of the negative rainfall anomalies over the Asian monsoon due to the change in climatological SSTs. We also show that extratropical surface temperature anomalies over land related to the mode will change in regions like Southwestern Europe, East Australia, Asia or North America due to the eastward shift of the sea level pressure systems and related surface winds. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Estimation of extremely high rainfall (point or areal) is one of the major components of design storm derivation. The estimation of Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP) involves selection of heavy rainstorms and its maximization for the moisture content during the rainstorm period. These heavy rainstorms are nothing but the widespread heavy rainfall exceeding a certain threshold value. The present study examines the characteristics of heavy rainstorms in the Indus basin selected from present climate and future scenarios simulated by the regional climate model. Such information on heavy rainfall forms the basis for the hydrologic design projects and also for the water management of a river basin. Emphasis is given to severe rainstorms of 1-day duration covering an area of at least 40,000 km² with spatial average rainfall of at least 5cm. This analysis also provides the information on the temporal changes in the storm factors such as shape, orientation, and movement, and shows that the model can well simulate the rainstorm pattern in terms of its intensity, orientation, and shape of the rainstorm, but overestimates the frequency of such heavy rainstorms. The future scenario indicates increase in rainfall intensity at the center of the rainstorm with decreasing areal spread. Decrease in the frequency of rainstorms is projected under the global warming conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]