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The North Yellow Sea, located at the intersection of the Eurasian continent and North Pacific Ocean at mid-latitudes, is a sensitive area subjected to the joint actions of the ocean, land, and monsoons. On its southern shore, loess and paleosol sedimentary sequences were widely developed during the last interglacial period, which is of great significance for revealing patterns of climate change and dynamic conditions. In this paper, we focus on the Zhifu section (ZFS) on Zhifu Island within the Shandong Province of China. The optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) dating method was used to construct our chronological framework. Grain size and its endmember (EM) components were then analyzed; EM1 is a clay component EM, which represents a weak dynamic environment and strong weathering pedogenesis, while EM2 and EM3 are silt and very fine sand component EMs, respectively, representing a strong dynamic environment and weak weathering pedogenesis. Maximum EM1, mean grain size, clay content, and pH values occur in the paleosol layers (ZF4, ZF6, and ZF8), with minimum values in the loess layers (ZF5 and ZF7); EM3 values show the opposite pattern. This indicates that the ZF4, ZF6, and ZF8 layers represent warm and humid environments with abundant precipitation, where the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) was enhanced, corresponding to Marine Isotope Stages (MIS) 5a, 5c, and 5e. In contrast, ZF5 and ZF7 represent sub-warm and humid environments with less precipitation, where the EASM was weakened, corresponding to MIS 5b and 5d. Among these stages, MIS5e is the warmest and wettest. These climatic events reveal the pattern of climate fluctuation over a ten-thousand-year timescale; they are synchronous with climate changes recorded in other geological repositories, such as cave stalagmites in southern China and sea-level fluctuations in the Yellow-Bohai Sea, which result from changes in global solar radiation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Previous studies on the amplitude of East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) changes mainly focused on northern China (represented by the Loess Plateau). However, a rare investigation centered on the subtropical zone of southern China, where the important route for EASM moved northward or southward, especially addressing a lack of the research on mammals. The Ailuropoda-Stegodon fauna is a representative mammal fauna in southern China since the late Pleistocene. It indicates the southern mid-subtropical-tropical forest environment with tropical climate characteristics, and its southward or northward movements in the subtropical zone imply the changes of EASM intensity. Based on previous research, combined with the species characteristics and distribution range of the Ailuropoda-Stegodon fauna with tropical animals during the marine isotope stage 5 (MIS5), MIS3, MIS2, and MIS1 Megathermal periods, this paper mainly investigates its evolution and the fluctuations of EASM. The conclusions include: (1) The distribution geometric centers in the MIS5, MIS3, MIS2, and MIS1 Megathermal periods are (26°14′N, 111°22′E), (24°35′N, 107°30′E), (22°48′N, 112°01′E), and (26°19′N, 112°25′E), respectively. (2) Compared with the MIS5 period, the EASM of the MIS3 and MIS2 moved 180 km and 380 km southwards, and that of the MIS1 Megathermal period moved about 10 km northwards. The EASM movement indicated by the fauna migration happened synchronous with the climate records of stalagmites in subtropical China, the sporopollen from eastern China, and oxygen isotopes from Sulu Sea. They also correspond to the peaks and valleys of the total solar radiation at 35°N in the winter half-year. This suggests that the migrations of the Ailuropoda-Stegodon fauna are consistent with the changes of the global climate, and the driving force is mainly from the changes of total solar radiation at 35°N in the winter half-year. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The systematic bias of the estimated average temperature using daily Tmax and Tmin records relative to the standard average temperature of four time-equidistant observations and its effect on the estimated trend of long-term temperature change have not been well understood. This paper attempts to evaluate the systematic bias across mainland China using the daily data of national observational stations. The results revealed that the positive bias of annual mean temperature was large, reaching 0.58°C nationally on average; regional average bias was lowest in the northwest arid region and highest in the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau; the bias was low in spring and summer and high in autumn and winter, reaching its lowest point in mid- and late May and highest point in early November. Furthermore, the bias showed a significant upward trend in the past 50 years, with a rising rate of 0.021°C (10 yr)−1, accounting for about 12% of the overall warming as estimated from the data of the observational network; the largest positive trend bias was found in the northwest arid region, while the east monsoon region experienced the smallest change; the most remarkable increase of the bias occurred after early 1990s. These results indicate that the customarily applied method to calculate daily and monthly mean temperature using Tmax and Tmin significantly overestimates the climatological mean and the long-term trend of surface air temperature in mainland China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The vertical transition zone of mountain vegetation is characterized by high species diversity, and the width of the transition zone may serve as an indirect indicator of climate change. However, research into the differential characteristics of vegetation response to climate changes at the boundary of vertical transition zones has been limited. This study employs MODIS and climate data spanning 2001 to 2018 to investigate spatiotemporal trends in precipitation (PRE), temperature (TMP), radiation (RAD), and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) across nine montane deciduous broad-leaved forests in the eastern monsoon region of China. It explores the time-lag and -accumulation effects of climatic variables on NDVI, quantifying their relative contributions to both its short-term and interannual variations. Results show that, notably, with the Qinling-Daba Mountains as a demarcation, northern regions exhibit significant increases in RAD (0.874–2.047 W m−2/a), whereas southern regions demonstrate notable rises in TMP (0.59–0.73 °C/10a). Areas of lower annual PRE correspond to the most rapid increases in annual average NDVI (5.045 × 10−3/a). NDVI's lag time and cumulative duration responses to TMP are the shortest (0 and 2~4 periods), while its correlation with RAD is the strongest (0.815–0.975), generally decreasing from higher to lower latitudes. TMP significantly affects NDVI variations, impacting both short-term and interannual trends, with PRE driving short-term fluctuations and RAD dictating long-term shifts. This research provides critical data and a theoretical framework that enhances our understanding of how regional vegetation's vertical zonation responds to climate change, thereby making a substantial contribution to the study of mountain vegetation's diverse adaptability to climatic variations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The present paper examined the teleconnections between two huge Asian summer monsoon components (South and East Asia) during three time slices in future: near-(2010–2039), mid-(2040–2069) and far-(2070–2100) futures under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. For this purpose, a high-resolution atmospheric general circulation model is used and integrated at 40 km horizontal resolution. To get more insight into the relationships between the two Asian monsoon components, we have studied the spatial displaying correlation coefficients (CCs) pattern of precipitation over the entire Asian monsoon region with that of South Asia and three regions of East Asia (North China, Korea–Japan and Southern China) separately during the same three time slices. The possible factors responsible for these teleconnections are explored by using mean sea level pressure (MSLP) and wind fields at 850 hPa. The CC pattern of precipitation over South Asia shows an in-phase relationship with North China and an out-of-phase relationship with Korea–Japan, while precipitation variations over Korea–Japan and Southern China exhibit an out-of-phase relationship with South Asia. The CCs analysis between the two Asian blocks during different time slices shows the strongest CCs during the near and far future with the RCP8.5 scenario. The CC pattern of precipitation over Korea–Japan and Southern China with the wind (at 850 hPa) and MSLP fields indicate that the major parts of the moisture over Korea–Japan gets transported from the west Pacific along the western limb of NPSH, while the moisture over Southern China comes from the Bay of Bengal and South China Seas for good monsoon activity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Three major points of population migration toward the WHL occurred at 5200, 3800, and 2800 cal BP, which correspond to the seesaw changes of precipitation in western and eastern China. [Display omitted] How various peoples crossed geographical barriers, were affected by climate change and human-made technologies comprise some of the most interesting quandaries in the history of cultures. This paper considers the Hu line, which is a major boundary between population centres and different environments in China. The boundary became evident approximately 11,400 years ago; however, evidence suggests that people crossed through at 5200, 3800, and 2800 cal a BP, facilitating the increases of the trans-Eurasian exchange. The timings of the crossings correspond to the weakening of the East Asian summer monsoon that triggers seesaw changes of precipitation in western and eastern China. This analysis demonstrates that climate change on a millennial-to-centennial scale can have a profound influence on population distribution with long-term consequences. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Soil moisture (SM) is essential for sustaining services from Earth's critical zone, a thin-living skin spanning from the canopy to groundwater. In the Anthropocene epoch, intensive afforestation has remarkably contributed to global greening and certain service improvements, often at the cost of reduced SM. However, attributing the response of SM in deep soil to such human activities is a great challenge because of the scarcity of long-term observations. Here, we present a 37 y (1985 to 2021) analysis of SM dynamics at two scales across China's monsoon loess critical zone. Site-scale data indicate that land-use conversion from arable cropland to forest/grassland caused an 18% increase in SM deficit over 0 to 18 m depth (P < 0.01). Importantly, this SM deficit intensified over time, despite limited climate change influence. Across the Loess Plateau, SM storage in 0 to 10 m layer exhibited a significant decreasing trend from 1985 to 2021, with a turning point in 1999 when starting afforestation. Compared with SM storage before 1999, the relative contributions of climate change and afforestation to SM decline after 1999 were -8% and 108%, respectively. This emphasizes the pronounced impacts of intensifying land-use conversions as the principal catalyst of SM decline. Such a decline shifts 18% of total area into an at-risk status, mainly in the semiarid region, thereby threatening SM security. To mitigate this risk, future land management policies should acknowledge the crucial role of intensifying land-use conversions and their interplay with climate change. This is imperative to ensure SM security and sustain critical zone services. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There are few studies on the climate and glacial scale in the mountains east of the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau. So, we used glacial features to determine the range of the area's paleoglaciers and the equilibrium line altitude (ELA) of theGlA modern and paleoglaciers in the Tianchi area of the Changbai Mountains. Then, the GlaRe toolbox 2015 () was used to reconstruct the surface of the paleoglaciers. The probable air temperature during the glacial advances of the LGM was calculated by applying the P-T and LR models. The results showed the following: (1) the change in ELA is 950 m in the Tianchi area of the Changbai Mountains; (2) glacial coverage in the Tianchi area of the Changbai Mountains during the LGM period was ~27.05 km2 and the glacial volume was ~9.94 km3; and (3) the mean temperature in the Tianchi area of the Changbai Mountains during the LGM was 6.6–9.0 °C lower than today's, and was the principal factor controlling the growth of glaciers. There is a difference in the climate change in monsoon-influenced mountains during the LGM, and this difference may be related to the precipitation in the mountains. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Deserts and sandylands that are located in the semi-arid and arid regions in the middle latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere are usually regarded as environmentally sensitive change belts which respond to global climatic change. In northern China, activation or immobilization of sand dunes is mainly influenced by humid and dry variation and is related to stronger or weaker Asian monsoons. In this paper, the history of Holocene millennial-scale climatic and environmental change is reconstructed by the systematic analysis of the geochemical element contents and parameters, along with the OSL and C chronologies, from the different lithologies of the palaeosol-aeolian sand sequence in the south-eastern Mu Us Desert, northern China. Our results indicate that the region was dominated by a dry climate with intensive aeolian activity before 7.2 ka BP, and there was an optimal humid climate and fixed desert in 7.2-4.6 ka. Afterwards, the dune fields became mobile again as the effective humidity declined. Additionally, six dry events were discovered with times of ~7.2, 7.0-6.8, 6.6-5.7, 4.6-4.1, 3.7-3.5, and 3.3-2.5 ka, which were not only coincident with the intervals of millennial-scale weaker Asian summer monsoons, but also accordant with the cold events evidenced in the ice cores and deep-sea deposits of the high latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere. In general, the Holocene climatic and environmental changes had the characteristics of the 'monsoonal mode' and 'abrupt millennial-scale oscillation' in the Mu Us Desert. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The mid-Pliocene warm period was the most recent geological period in Earth's history that featured long-term warming. Both geological evidence and model results indicate that East Asian summer winds (EASWs) strengthened in monsoonal China, and that East Asian winter winds (EAWWs) weakened in northern monsoonal China during this period, as compared to the pre-industrial period. However, the corresponding mechanisms are still unclear. In this paper, the results of a set of numerical simulations are reported to analyze the effects of changed boundary conditions on the mid-Pliocene East Asian monsoon climate, based on PRISM3 (Pliocene Research Interpretation and Synoptic Mapping) palaeoenvironmental reconstruction. The model results showed that the combined changes of sea surface temperatures, atmospheric CO concentration, and ice sheet extent were necessary to generate an overall warm climate on a large scale, and that these factors exerted the greatest effects on the strengthening of EASWs in monsoonal China. The orographic change produced significant local warming and had the greatest effect on the weakening of EAWWs in northern monsoonal China in the mid-Pliocene. Thus, these two factors both had important but different effects on the monsoon change. In comparison, the effects of vegetational change on the strengthened EASWs and weakened EAWWs were relatively weak. The changed monsoon winds can be explained by a reorganization of the meridional temperature gradient and zonal thermal contrast. Moreover, the effect of orbital parameters cannot be ignored. Results showed that changes in orbital parameters could have markedly affected the EASWs and EAWWs, and caused significant short-term oscillations in the mid-Pliocene monsoon climate in East Asia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The early season rainfall (ESR) over southern China, usually occurring from April to June, is a prominent meteorological phenomenon of the East Asian monsoon system. In this paper, output from the 45-day hindcast by the NCEP Climate Forecast System, version 2 (CFSv2), and various observational datasets are analyzed to assess the predictability of the ESR and associated atmospheric circulation. Results show that CFSv2 can successfully predict the ESR and associated circulation patterns over southern China. The lower-tropospheric convergence and upper-tropospheric divergence as well as the local upward motion over southern China lead to the formation of ESR. Analysis of bias shows small differences and close relationships between the predicted and observed ESR values when the forecast lead time is less than 2 weeks. The skill in the ESR predictions by CFSv2 decreases significantly when the lead time is longer than 2 weeks. Overall, CFSv2 has a higher level of skill when predicting the southern China ESR compared to the rainfall over other Asian regions during the same period of time. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The 4.2 ka event was a period of global drought and climate cooling linked to the widespread disruption of Neolithic culture. However, the detailed climatic changes during this period are not completely understood. In this paper, we report a high-resolution pollen record for the Dayanghu wetland in the Zhejiang region of southeastern China, which we use to infer mean annual precipitation (MAP) fluctuations during the period spanning 4600–4000 calendar years before present (cal. yr BP). There was a long-term trend of decreasing MAP during this interval, consistent with weakening of the East Asian Summer Monsoon since the mid-Holocene. This trend was punctuated by episodes of relatively high MAP at 4350–4320, ca. 4260, and 4220–4200 cal. yr BP, and extreme droughts at 4200 and 4150 cal. yr BP. We propose that solar activity promoted El Niño events and contributed to dramatic MAP fluctuations in the Dayanghu wetland. La Niña events and negative-phase intervals of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation may have been responsible for the extreme drought at 4200–4150 cal. yr BP. In summary, we propose a close relationship between MAP and solar forcing, with short-term enhanced solar activity increasing the intensity of the East Asian Summer Monsoon and contributing to increasing decadal variability in the inner tropical Pacific, which ultimately leads to increased precipitation variability in southeast China. The results improve our understanding of the detailed climatic features of the 4.2 ka event. • High-resolution pollen record for ca. 4.2 ka for the Zhejiang region, China. • Pollen-based mean annual precipitation was quantitatively reconstructed. • Long-term droughts tended to occur during 4600–4000 cal. yr BP. • La Niña-dominated ENSO contributed to a catastrophic drought at 4200–4150 cal. yr BP. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The abrupt weakening of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) during Younger Dryas (YD) has been attributed to freshwater discharge into the North Atlantic ocean and resultant Northern Hemisphere cooling. Recent studies have found that sea ice variability in the Nordic Sea during the YD exerted a great influence upon the northern high-latitude climate. However, the influence of sea ice upon EASM evolution during YD event remains unclear. In this paper, we report two precisely-dated speleothem oxygen isotope records from the EASM-dominated region of central China. Our records archive abrupt changes in EASM variability during the YD event. Initially, there was a significant strengthening of the EASM during the mid-YD following the gradually increased Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). Later this trend reversed at ∼12.15 ka due to northern high-latitude sea ice fluctuations and a consequent reduction of AMOC. At the YD termination, abrupt intensification of the EASM was synchronous with the rapid decline of sea-ice and recovery of the AMOC indicating that sea ice variability was a significant influence on high latitude climate and EASM variation during the YD. • A new speleothem δ18O record show significant EASM strengthening during mid-YD. • Mid-YD oscillation in EASM linked with NH sea ice variability. • Abrupt EASM intensification at YD termination synchronous with the rapid decline of sea ice. • Drier interval following the YD termination in central China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract The Eocene was an interval of climate evolution, when the extreme high temperatures of the earliest Cenozoic gave way to a global cooling trend. Fine-grained lacustrine sediments of Eocene age from northeastern China represent an excellent archive to study long-term environmental and climatic changes at high-resolution. The Huadian Basin is a Cenozoic, fault-bounded basin in Jilin Province, northeastern China. Though small in area, it contains numerous oil shale- and coal-bearing layers, which provide an abundant Middle to Late Eocene palynoflora. Eighty-five palynomorph genera and one hundred palynomorph species were identified in the Huadian Formation, allowing to distinguish 4 palynozones. The nearest living relatives of the recovered palynomorph taxa suggest the presence of subtropical evergreen and deciduous broad-leaved forests during deposition of the Huadian Formation. Using the coexistence approach (CA), we calculated seven paleoclimatic parameters, which indicate a subtropical warm and humid climate with a mean annual temperature above 13.6 °C and a mean annual precipitation of at least 887 mm. However, the climate became cooler and drier during the transition from the lower Oil Shale Member to the upper Carbonaceous Shale Member. Palaeoclimatic data from the various Middle and Late Eocene basins of northeastern China (i.e., the Huadian, Fushun, Yilan, Hunchun and Jishu basins) were compared with data from North American and European basins. Middle Eocene climate in the Northern Hemisphere was generally warm and humid, and the mean annual temperature and precipitation in northeastern China were similar to those in North America, though slightly lower than those of Europe. Similar trends in temperature and precipitation on different continents support the existence of a global Mid-Eocene cooling event. This paper is the first systematic study of Middle to Late Eocene seasonality in the Huadian Basin. Our results show an apparent differentiation in both temperature and precipitation between summer and winter, supporting the view that the East Asian Monsoon was established in northeastern China already during the Middle to Late Eocene. This Middle and Late Eocene monsoon was likely driven by the development of Pacific trade winds and an alternating, seasonal high- and low-pressure system over Siberia. The climatic changes observed in our dataset, especially the precipitation changes, appear to have played an important role in controlling oil shale formation in the Huadian Basin. A warmer and more humid climate, with abundant precipitation and high subsidence rates, formed a deeper Huadian depositional lake. High productivity and stable stratification provided the abundant organic matter and favorable preservation conditions necessary for oil shale accumulation. Highlights • The Middle-Late Eocene palynoflora were firstly systematically studied in Huadian Basin. • We quantitatively estimated the Middle-Late Eocene climate based on CA method. • A globally cooler phase was recognized in the Middle Eocene. • Climate seasonality in the Middle-Late Eocene supports the EAM was already prevalent in NE China. • Changes in climate, especially precipitation, play an important role in oil shale formation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global warming has exacerbated the instability of the climate and has led to the frequent occurrence of extreme cold and warm events. The complex geography of the high-latitude region of China's monsoon-continental transition zone makes it extremely sensitive to climate response, understanding temperature changes over long periods of time is crucial to revealing trends in climate change trends. In this study, we constructed a standardized tree-ring width chronology of Korean spruce growing in this area from 1845 to 2016 and used it to analyzed the response of the radial growth of Korean spruce to climatic factors such as temperature and precipitation. The results show that the annual mean temperature was the dominant climatic factor affecting the growth of Korean spruce. Hence, we reconstructed the annual mean temperature series of this region spanning the past 172 years. The analysis results show that the study area experienced five warm periods and five cold periods in the past 172 years. Cold years were dominant before 1960s, while temperature continuously rose and changed drastically in the early twenty-first century. The reconstructed annual mean temperature series has variability cycles of 3a, 7a, 10–12a, 15–22a and 30–40a. The results of this reconstruction enrich the tree-ring database in the representative regions of the monsoon-continental climate transition zone in China and provide a reference for systematically understanding the climate change patterns in the representative regions of the transition zone. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Regions located on the Chinese Loess Plateau are sensitive to changes in the Asian monsoon because they are on the edge of the monsoon region. Based on six 230Th experiments and 109 sets of stable isotope data of LH36 from Lianhua Cave, Yangquan City, Shanxi Province, we obtained a paleoclimate record with an average resolution of 120 years from 54.5 to 41.1 ka BP during the MIS3 on the Chinese Loess Plateau. Both the Hendy test and the replication test indicated an equilibrium fractionation of stable isotopes during the stalagmite deposition. Comparison with four other independently-dated, high-resolution stalagmite δ13C records between 29°N and 41°N in the Asian monsoon region shows that the stalagmite δ13C records from different caves have good reproducibility during the overlapped growth period. We suggest that speleothem δ13C effectively indicates soil CO2 production in the overlying area of the cave, reflecting changes in the cave's external environment and in the Asian summer monsoon. Five millennial-scale Asian summer monsoon intensification events correspond to the Dansgaard–Oeschger 10–14 cycles recorded in the Greenland ice core within dating errors, and the weak monsoon processes are closely related to stadials in the North Atlantic. The spatial consistency of stalagmite δ13C records in China suggests that the Asian summer monsoon and the related regional ecological environment fluctuations sensitively respond to climate changes at northern high latitudes through sea-air coupling on the millennial timescale. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A comprehensive and integrative view of East Asian monsoon evolution during the Holocene is still under debate, and additional high-resolution proxy records from climatically sensitive locations are requisite to solve this complex issue. In this paper, we present three well-dated mud/peat cores from a paleo-pingo depression in the Sanjiang Plain, a climatically sensitive region to monsoon variation, to reveal the paleoenvironmental history of the wetland and discuss the regional impacts from monsoon evolution. A paleolake developed in the study area before 5.5 ka BP, and a peatland initiated thereafter consequent upon the gradual shrinking of the paleolake. This transition lasted until 4.5 ka BP, when the paleolake changed entirely to a wetland. Considering the prevalent monsoon climate in the Sanjiang Plain, we suggest that the lake-to-wetland transition from 5.5 to 4.5 ka BP indicates a rapid decline of the East Asian summer monsoon in addition to autogenic basin infilling processes. Such a remarkable monsoon weakening event has been documented across northern China, and we associate this with ocean–atmosphere interactions throughout low-latitude regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change impacts ocean nutrient availability and will likely alter the marine food web. While climate models predict decreased average ocean productivity, the extent of these changes, especially in the marginal seas upon which large human populations depend, is not well understood. Here, we reconstructed changes in seawater phosphate concentration and nitrate source over the past 400 years, which reveals a more than 50% decline in residence time of seawater phosphate, and 8%–48% decline in subsurface nitrogen supply following the coldest period of Little Ice Age. Our data indicates a link between surface ocean nutrient supply and the East Asian Summer Monsoon strength in an economically important marginal sea. As climate models predict that the East Asian Summer monsoon will strengthen in the future, our study implies that surface ocean primary productivity may increase in the South China Sea, contrary to the predicted decrease in global average ocean productivity. Plain Language Summary: Global climate models predict that surface ocean nutrient concentrations will significantly decrease over the next 100 years as our climate changes. However, in the world's marginal seas, which human populations depend on most heavily for food security, the surface ocean biogeochemical changes are still difficult to predict with global‐scale models. Here, using coral‐based paleoclimate proxies, we reconstruct changes to surface phosphate concentration and to sources of surface nitrogen over the past four centuries in the South China Sea (SCS). Combined with box model simulations, our data reveal a more than 50% decline in phosphate residence time and an 8%–48% decline in subsurface nitrate supply from the 1600s to present. Such a decline implies a significant decrease in primary productivity and likely a community shift toward nitrogen‐fixing phytoplankton. Importantly, our data indicate that the decrease in nutrient supply was driven by weakened monsoon‐induced upwelling, demonstrating strong ties between nutrient supply and monsoon strength in the SCS. Climate change is predicted to strengthen the East Asian Summer Monsoon, and our results suggest that primary productivity in this economically important region may increase, contrary to the widely predicted decreases in average global ocean productivity. Key Points: Coral skeletal phosphorus content with scattered nitrogen isotopes is reconstructed over the past 400 yearsNutrient supply declined up to 48% since the Little Ice Age in the western South China SeaThe coral record from links nutrient supply to monsoon wind, implying higher productivity under a stronger monsoon in the future [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Thick Quaternary alluvial and floodplain sediments in north Hebei Plain provide important information for understanding local paleoenvironmental and paleoclimatic variations. A 120.8 m drilled core (SHBZK-1) was recovered to determine the late Pleistocene climatic fluctuations, sedimentary environment and their coevolutionary relationship. Laboratory analysis, including grain size distribution, magnetic susceptibility, and optical stimulated luminescence dating, was carried out. Lithofacies and grain size showed that the sediments are of fluvial origin and contain two subfaces: river sand bar and flood plain. The good correlation between magnetic susceptibility and grain size show that climate change is the main factor controlling the variation of sedimentary environment in Hebei Plain, rather than tectonic factors. Furthermore, variations of the magnetic susceptibility and lithofacies reflect the intensity and fluctuations of Asian monsoons and couple well with glacial-interglacial cycles, suggesting that the variation of ice volume in the Northern Hemisphere drives climate change in the Hebei Plain, which, in turn, regulates the variation of the sedimentary environment and facies through controlling precipitation changes, as well as the input amount of magnetic minerals. This research provides a useful continental archive for understanding the late Pleistocene environmental and climatic variation and suggests the prevalence of climate-driven environmental change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The summer monsoon transition zone (SMTZ) in China represents an unusual land type with an agro-pasture ecotone, and it is a climate-sensitive region. Changes in climate aridity and changes in meteorological drought are mutually related yet fundamentally different. In this study, potential evapotranspiration (ETO) is calculated using Penman–Monteith, based on China's national meteorological stations data from 1961 to 2013. An ETO-based climate aridity index (IAI) and ETO-based standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) are used as the metrics for climate aridity and meteorological drought, respectively. The result shows a significant difference between climate aridity and meteorological drought in the SMTZ, compared with the monsoon and non-monsoon zone. This difference varies on different time scales (1–48 months), and the greatest differences between IAI and SPEI are on seasonal and monthly scales (1–12 months), but lower at longer time scales (>12 months). The first reason for the difference is the desynchronicity of meteorological drought and the background climate. After the background climate becomes a relatively arid state (such as 0.96 < IAI < 1) from a semi-arid state (0.50 < IAI < 0.80), the continued arid state with weak IAI fluctuations eventually results in increasingly severe meteorological droughts, or the recurrence of equally severe droughts with drastic reduction. Consequently, the onset of the most severe climate aridity is two to seven months (mostly three to four months) ahead of the onset of the most severe drought events, until the climate returns to a semi-arid state. Second, climate aridity represents the average state of the background climate over a long time period and changes gently, while meteorological droughts are stochastic climate events and change drastically. These findings indicate that IAI can serve as a predictor of the onset of meteorological drought events, especially in the SMTZ, but it fails to characterize the progression of meteorological drought events well. Therefore, this result is of great significance for drought prediction and early warning. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Pressure on river water resources may increase continuously under global climate change and the increasing intensity of human activity, and the identification of river water sources is needed to maintain water resource sustainability. In this study, river water sources were studied using hydrochemical tracers (i.e. the major ions) and end‐member mixing analysis (EMMA) during two hydrological years, in the subtropical monsoon basin of the Xiangjiang River in the south‐central China. Various water types including precipitation, river water, and mountain creek water, were collected in the basin at a high frequency. The results of EMMA showed that the average contributions from the direct input of precipitation, near‐surface runoff (represented by mountain creek water), and groundwater (represented by river water sampled during the base flow period) were 28 ± 24%, 49 ± 24% and 23 ± 16%, respectively. The contributions from these water sources to the river water varied greatly within the year, which may indicate a shift in the major flow pathways from direct precipitation input and near‐surface flow pathways in the spring rainy months (e.g. from March to May), to a deeper flow pathway in the dry or rainless months (e.g. January, February, July and December). The shift of the major flow pathways may be due to the factors such as the seasonality of precipitation, evapotranspiration and soil wetness conditions. Groundwater and near‐subsurface runoff dominated the river water and the direct input of precipitation was negligible during the dry or rainless months, and consequently, the river water chemistry was less diluted and more influenced by water‐soil/rock interactions and anthropogenic pollution during these months. The creek water contribution to the river water was relatively high in summer, especially in June and July 2021, which may indicate the substantial inter‐seasonal carryover of precipitation that contributed to the river water. With the projected increased frequency of extreme weather events such as seasonal drought, streamflow in the subtropical monsoon regions may experience greater recharge by deeper flow pathways, with the enhanced role of base flow in regulating streamflow, and there may be an increased risk to the water resource security under the condition of the decreased river dilution capacity and increased anthropogenic pollution. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A heavy rainfall trajectory (HRT) is defined as the trajectory formed by the movement of the rainstorm centre of a heavy rainfall event over time. Based on this definition, the dispersion degree (DD) of HRTs is applied based on the Euclidean distance and an empirical orthogonal function (EOF) to quantify the spatiotemporal distribution and evolution characteristics of HRTs in China. The results show that (a) the spatial distribution and length of HRTs in China have distinct geographical and seasonal characteristics, which are strongly influenced by the East Asian summer monsoon. (b) From southeast China to northwest China, the DDs increased to 8 and the length of HRTs decreased by 53,925 m. (c) According to EOF analysis, the direction angle change of northeast‐oriented HRTs shows a significant negative trend across the country, while those of southeast‐, southwest‐ and northwest‐oriented HRTs show a significant positive trend. From 2008 to 2019, HRTs flattened in the northeast and southwest directions, while HRTs steepened in the southeast and northwest directions. This research provides certain scientific guidance for the prevention and mitigation of regional disasters and provides necessary theoretical support for the changing patterns of the climate system under the impact of climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The western North Pacific Subtropical High (WNPSH) is a key circulation system regulating the East Asian climate, and its area has crucial indicative for summer precipitation in China. In this study, we established the model for classification prediction of summer WNPSH area via the Gaussian Naive Bayes (GNB). By setting different category proportions and different training set sample sizes, we investigated the prediction ability of GNB and its dependent on the data sample size. After comparing the prediction performance of GNB with tree models which were commonly used in short-term climate prediction, it was found that the accuracy scores (ACC) and balanced accuracy scores (BCC) of GNB were statistically significantly higher than tree models. Additionally, under different category classification criteria, the ACC and BCC of GNB could maintain above 0.77 and 0.75, respectively. Especially for anomalous categories, the recalls values could maintain above 0.5. These results indicate that the GNB had very strong prediction ability for the summer WNPSH area and could also better predict the degree of anomalous WNPSH area. Moreover, under different training set sample sizes, the ACC of GNB could be maintained above 0.6, which suggests that the GNB was less dependent on the data sample size and could reduce the limitation of abrupt interdecadal changes in climate on the available data sample size to some extent. This study reveals strong prediction ability of GNB for the summer WNPSH area, which also has high reference value for the research of other short-term climate prediction problems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Previous palaeoenvironmental reconstructions have implied that East Asia was dominated by a zonal climate pattern during the Eocene, with an almost latitudinal arid/semiarid band at ~ 30° N. However, this long-standing model has recently been challenged by growing body of multidisciplinary evidence. Some studies indicated that central China was characterized by climatic fluctuations between humid and drier conditions during the Early Eocene, akin to the present East Asian monsoon (EAM) regime. Using palynological assemblages in the Tantou Basin, central China, we quantitatively reconstructed climate changes from the Late Palaeocene to Early Eocene to better understand climate change in central China. Palynological assemblages revealed that the coniferous and broad-leaved mixed forest in this area received no less than 800 mm of annual precipitation and experienced a climate change from warm and wet to relatively cool and dry. According to palaeoclimate curves, a sudden climate change occurred in the Early Eocene, with the mean annual temperature and precipitation decreasing by 5.1 °C and 214.8 mm, respectively, and the climate became very similar to the present climate, which is controlled by the monsoon. Therefore, this significant climate change during the Early Eocene may signal the emergence of the EAM in East Asia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Under the intensification of global warming, the characteristics of the Three Rivers source region (TRSR; i.e., headwaters of the Yellow River, the Yangtze River, and the Lancang River) in China were diagnosed in the summer season from 1979 to 2015 using observations and reanalysis data. The diagnoses indicate that summer precipitation decreased from 1979 to 2002 [by 9.01 mm day−1 (10 yr)−1; p < 0.05 by Student's t test] and increased significantly after 2002 [by 5.52 mm day−1 (10 yr)−1]. This abrupt change year (2002) was further confirmed by the cumulative anomaly method, the moving t-test method, and the Yamamoto method. By compositing the thermodynamics before and after the abrupt change year (2002), the results reveal that increased water vapor and more substantial lower-level convergence were present over the TRSR during 2003–15. This marked interdecadal variability in the TRSR summer precipitation responded to the interdecadal position and intensity of the large-scale forcing East Asian westerly jet (EAWJ), which is significantly modulated by the low-frequency variability associated with Southern Oscillation index. The connection between the interannual TRSR precipitation and the location and intensity of EAWJ was also explored. The position index of the EAWJ is negatively (with correlation coefficient R of −0.446; p < 0.05 by Student's t test) correlated with the precipitation over the TRSR, implying that southward and northward years of EAWJ are respectively associated with intensifying and weakening the TRSR summer precipitation, whereas the intensity of EAWJ is insignificantly correlated with the TRSR summer precipitation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, a new index based on the potential vorticity (PV) framework is proposed for the quantification of the Tibetan Plateau (TP) surface thermodynamic and dynamic forcing. The results show that the derived TP surface PV (SPV) includes the topographical effect, near‐surface absolute vorticity, and land–air potential temperature differences. The climatological annual cycle of the SPV suggests that the TP transitions from a cooling to a heating source in April. The SPV reaches a maximum from June to August, which is consistent with the evolution of the Asian summer monsoon precipitation. Further analysis suggests that the intensified SPV in the boreal summer results in a low‐level cyclonic circulation anomaly associated with increased precipitation over the southeastern slope of the TP and South China and decreased precipitation over the Indian Ocean. In winter, the intensified SPV is associated with local cold air and divergence at the TP surface. Plain Language Summary: The thermal forcing of Tibetan Plateau (TP) has long thought to be important in regulating the Asian summer monsoon. However, the surface sensible heat flux cannot represent the total thermodynamic forcing of the TP because the SSHF decreases when the monsoon precipitation intensifies during the prevailing Asian summer monsoon season. In this study, we propose a new index based on the potential vorticity (PV) framework, which can be used to quantify seasonal and interannual variations in the TP's surface thermodynamic and dynamic forcing. The results show that the proposed index can represent the TP surface‐elevated heating effect during the boreal summer, which is consistent with those of numerical experiments performed in previous studies. The new index can be used as a metric for model evaluation and climate characterization in future studies to quantify the role of the TP in global climate change. Key Points: The Tibetan Plateau surface potential vorticity index (TP‐SPVI) includes the effects from orographic thermal and dynamical forcingThe seasonal variation in the proposed TP‐SPVI is consistent with the time evolution of the Asian summer monsoon precipitationThe surface PV can be used as a metric for the identification of the TP surface forcing in reanalysis data and for model evaluation [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global warming and climate anomalies have attracted worldwide attention. The study of global climate change has received increasing attention from all countries and fields worldwide. Paleoclimate research is an important way to understand past global change and environmental evolution and to simulate and predict future climate development. A stalagmite ND3 collected in Naduo Cave was used to reconstruct the history of local climate and environmental changes from 0.55 to 5.07 ka BP based on the data of 13 230Th ages and 642 groups of oxygen and carbon stable isotopes. First, according to correlation analysis, δ18O and δ13C were significantly correlated (correlation coefficient r = 0.308, n = 318, P < 0.001) during the 5.07–2.00 ka BP period. However, during the period of 2–0.55 ka BP, there was no significant correlation P > 0.05 . The δ18O and δ13C data indicate that the climatic environment changed asynchronously during the period of 2.00–0.55 ka BP. During the period of 5.07–2.00 ka BP, the influence of human activities was weak, and δ18O and δ13C indicate similar climatic and environmental conditions, both of which changed in the same direction (positive correlation). In other words, when δ18O was positive, it indicated weak summer monsoons and lower precipitation, which led to declines in vegetation, weakened biological activity, and decreased soil CO2 and positive δ13C. The reverse patterns were also true. Since 2.0 ka BP, the intensity of human activities and the transformation and influence of surface vegetation have increased, and native vegetation has been destroyed in large quantities. Therefore, the climatic and environmental significance indicated by δ13C and δ18O has been well demonstrated. Second, the δ18O records showed that stalagmite ND3 responded to the weak monsoon drought events of 4.2 ka BP and 2.8 ka BP in the Holocene in a discontinuous deposition manner, which brings up new directions for future research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As an important part of the Indo-Pacific warm pool, the Indian Ocean has great significance for research on the Asian monsoon system and global climate change. From the 1960s onward, several international and regional programs have led to important new insights into the Indian Ocean. The eastern Tropical Indian Ocean Observation Network (TIOON) was established in 2010. The TIOON consists of two parts: large-scope observations and moored measurements. Large-scope observations are performed by the eastern Tropical Indian Ocean Comprehensive Experiment Cruise (TIO-CEC). Moored measurements are executed by the TIOON mooring array and the hydrological meteorological buoy. By 2019, 10 successful TIO-CEC voyages had been accomplished, making this mission the most comprehensive scientific investigation in China. The TIO-CEC voyages have collected temperature/salinity profiles, GPS radiosonde profiles, and other observations in the Indian Ocean. To supplement the existing buoy array in the Indian Ocean, an enhanced TIOON mooring array consisting of eight subthermocline acoustic Doppler current profiler (ADCP) moorings, was established since 2013. The TIOON mooring equipped with both upward-looking and downward-looking WHLS75K ADCP provide valuable current monitoring information to depth of 1,000 m in the Indian Ocean. To improve air–sea interaction monitoring, two real-time hydrological–meteorological buoys were deployed in 2019 and 2020 in the equatorial Indian Ocean. A better understanding of the Indian Ocean requires continuous and long-term observations. The TIOON program and other aspiring field investigation programs will be promoted in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Much has been learned regarding orbital and millennial timescale climate changes after the onset of Northern Hemisphere glaciations (NHG) at ca. 2.7 Ma. By contrast, little is known about these variations before the NHG due to lack of high‐resolution records. Here we report first millennial resolution quantified East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) precipitation record from the north eastern Tibetan Plateau. The record supports astronomical forcing of EASM during the late Miocene, except for the period of 8.13–8.03 Ma when EASM experienced high amplitude variations at the 100‐, 20‐kyr, and suborbital bands, which is in sharp contrast with the damped astronomical forcing. Detection of strong 100‐kyr and millennial cycles during low eccentricity intervals of the warm late Miocene with ephemeral NH ice sheets cast doubt on NH ice sheet size variations as their exclusive forcing in the late Miocene and late Quaternary paleoclimatic records. Plain Language Summary: Millennial and 100‐kyr cycles in paleoclimate records are normally attributed to Northern Hemisphere ice sheet size variations. Here we present the first 1‐kyr resolution quantitative East Asian summer monsoon precipitation record from the northeastern Tibetan Plateau during the late Miocene, when Northern Hemisphere ice sheets were ephemeral. The record demonstrates strong 100‐kyr and clear millennial cycles. Detection of 100‐kyr and millennial cycles in this warm time interval cast doubt on Northern Hemisphere ice sheet size variations as their exclusive forcing in paleoclimatic records. Key Points: First 1‐kyr resolution quantitative northern China precipitation record during the late MioceneThe record reveals strong 100‐kyr and clear millennial cyclesDetection of 100‐kyr and millennial cycles in this warm interval challenges Northern Hemisphere (NH) ice sheet size variations as their exclusive forcing [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The climatic drivers of tropical rainfall and atmospheric circulation in the late Pleistocene are still debated. Some studies suggest that tropical precipitation primarily responded to precession (23–19 ky cycle), whereas others propose that glacial‐interglacial (100 ky) changes in ice sheets and sea level dominate. Here, we reexamine orbital influences on tropical‐to‐subtropical precipitation isotopes using singular spectrum analysis to isolate leading oscillatory modes from proxy records across the Indo‐Pacific Warm Pool (IPWP) and Asian monsoon domain. We find that the IPWP, Bay of Bengal, and South China Sea are dominated by the 100 ky glacial‐interglacial mode of variability, whereas eastern China clearly follows precession, suggesting that precipitation isotopes over the mid‐latitude Asian continent respond to different mechanisms than those in the IPWP or Indian and East Asian monsoon regions. This study demonstrates that glacial cycles, rather than changes in local insolation, are the dominant drivers of Pleistocene IPWP hydroclimate. Plain Language Summary: Reconstructions of past changes in rainfall, derived from cave deposits and ancient leaf waxes, provide an opportunity to understand how the tropical Indo‐Pacific Warm Pool, located between Southeast Asia and Australia, responds to large‐scale changes in global climate. Here, we statistically analyze five long records of rainfall and atmospheric circulation across the Warm Pool, the Indian and East Asian monsoon regions, and eastern China to isolate different external drivers of change between regions for the last 600,000 years. We find that the signal over eastern China is dominated by seasonal changes in solar radiation over mid‐latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere, whereas the signal in the Warm Pool and monsoon regions are dominated by changes in sea level and high latitude ice sheet growth. This clear spatial difference in the external drivers of regional circulation changes suggests that the cave records from China do not exclusively reflect East Asian monsoon rainfall. Additionally, this study supports a strong connection between high and low latitude climates during the last several hundred thousand years. Key Points: Indo‐Pacific precipitation isotopes are dominated by glacial‐interglacial climate shifts for 560 kyPrecipitation isotope records from eastern China are dominated by the 23 and 19 ky precessional cycles for 640 kyIndo‐Pacific climate is linked to high latitude processes, cautioning against assuming local insolation dominates [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Asian summer monsoon (ASM) variability and its long-term ecological and societal impacts extending back to Neolithic times are poorly understood due to a lack of high-resolution climate proxy data. Here, we present a precisely dated and well-calibrated treering stable isotope chronology from the Tibetan Plateau with 1- to 5-y resolution that reflects high- to low-frequency ASM variability from 4680 BCE to 2011 CE. Superimposed on a persistent drying trend since the mid-Holocene, a rapid decrease in moisture availability between ~2000 and ~1500 BCE caused a dry hydroclimatic regime from ~1675 to ~1185 BCE, with mean precipitation estimated at 42 ± 4% and 5 ± 2% lower than during themid-Holocene and the instrumental period, respectively. This second-millennium-BCE megadrought marks the mid-to late Holocene transition, during which regional forests declined and enhanced aeolian activity affected northern Chinese ecosystems. We argue that this abrupt aridification starting ~2000 BCE contributed to the shift of Neolithic cultures in northern China and likely triggered human migration and societal transformation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding the response mechanism of ecosystems to climate change and human disturbance can be improved by analyzing the spatial patterns of vegetation phenology and its influencing factors. Because the diverse phenological patterns are impacted by cloud cover contamination issues in the satellite observations, there are few remote sensing phenological research data in subtropical monsoon climate regions. To better understand the horizontal and vertical changes of vegetation phenology in these regions and how it may be affected by climatic factors and topographical features, we first extracted vegetation phenological information (such as start of growth season (SOS), end of growth season (EOS) and length of growth season (LEN)) from a reconstructed MODIS EVI time-series data. We then used geographic detectors to identify the influencing factors of phenology in different elevation zoning areas. We have found that in the Xiangjiang River Basin: 1) gradual changes in the longitudinal or latitudinal gradient of vegetation phenology were not obvious. Instead of horizontal changes, the variation pattern of phenology was similar to the striped river network of the Xiangjiang River. Earlier SOS mainly appeared in the areas far away from the river; later SOS appeared in the midstream and downstream reaches.2) Elevation played an important role in the regional differentiation of phenology. Boundaries at elevations of 320 m and 520 m distinctly separated the region into plain, hilly, and mountain vegetation phenological characteristics. 3) The impacts of climatic factors were quite different in the three vertical zoning areas. Precipitation was the most crucial factor affecting SOS both in plain and mountain areas. There was no significant factor affecting EOS in the plain area, but temperature had an essential effect on EOS in the mountain area. The hilly areas had a concentrated growth period with no significant factors affecting phenology. These findings highlight the importance of elevation in phenology at a watershed scale, enhance our understanding of the impact of climate changes on subtropical ecosystems, and provide a reference for further land-use change monitoring. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The East Asian monsoon (EAM) has experienced significant changes over the past 10,000 years that influenced East Asian agricultural development. However, the magnitude and extent of the EAM precipitation fluctuations at 6 ka remain unresolved, owing to uncertainty in individual lake records and substantial variations in the expansion limits in simulations of the mid-Holocene EAM precipitation. Here we present an approach based on multiple lake-level records using the "1D lake level—2D lake area—3D catchment hydrology" model to reconstruct the precipitation patterns in northern China, and to further quantify the extent of the EAM precipitation expansion in the mid-Holocene relative to today. The precipitation reconstructions suggest an ~550–1100 km northward expansion and an ~530–840 km westward migration of the EAM at 6 ka. At that time, the EAM precipitation domain covered over 6 million square kilometers. Thus, this approach mitigates the uncertainty and arbitrariness of reconstructions of the limit of the EAM precipitation fields and provides a benchmark for future climate modeling studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There are various types of climate transitional zones on the earth's surface. The East Asian summer monsoon transition zone (EASMTZ) has attracted much attention due to its multiple roles. It is where most of the semi-arid regions locate in China, and semi-arid climate is unstable relative to the arid climate to its north and humid climate to its south. Therefore, EASMTZ is very sensitive to climate changes, and its land-atmosphere interaction (LA-I) is active and crucial. The LA-I is significantly affected by the complex land surface conditions and closely related to the summer monsoon climate dynamics. The LA-I and its response to summer monsoon activities is thus complicated. It includes multi-feedback mechanisms, which involve the land surface thermal-hydrological-ecological couplings, multi-interface exchanges from near surface to the free atmosphere. These feedbacks are sensitive to the summer monsoon activities. Based on a summary of the unique characteristics of EASMTZ and the main research progresses in LA-I in recent years, the issues related to LA-I are discussed in this region. Finally, the key scientific issues faced by the LA-I are proposed, and the future focuses are summarized. This work should help for the future study on the LA-I and its response to summer monsoon activities in the EASMTZ, which should contribute to the understanding of the increasing drought frequency associated with the significant warming trend in this region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) intensified during the early to mid-Holocene relative to the present primarily due to orbital forcing. However, on the regional scale, changes in the monsoonal precipitation exhibit considerable spatial disparity, and the underlying mechanisms remain unresolved. In this study, the dynamic processes responsible for the difference of the EASM precipitation between the mid-Holocene and preindustrial period are systematically examined using the CMIP5 multimodel simulations. The moisture budget diagnostic identifies vertical motion as the key factor determining the cross-like precipitation pattern in East Asia. Relative to the preindustrial period, the mid-Holocene anomalous ascending motion corresponds well with the excessive precipitation over northern and southern China, and vice versa for west-central China, the Korean peninsula, Japan, and its marginal seas. In the framework of the moist static energy budget, the increased insolation and the attendant intensification of land–sea thermal contrast give rise to anomalous ascending motions, while descending motions are fundamentally forced by the decreased latitudinal insolation gradient. In particular, thermodynamic changes, namely, the reduced pole–equator temperature and humidity gradients, account for the downward motions over the northwestern Pacific. Dynamic changes, namely, the weakened westerlies, play a leading role in suppressing updrafts in west-central China. This study highlights that the orbital-scale monsoonal precipitation changes are not solely determined by local radiative forcing as repeatedly emphasized before. The latitudinal uneven distribution of insolation is crucial to explain the spatial inhomogeneity in the EASM precipitation changes during the Holocene. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We investigate a record-breaking heat wave in southern China (SC) and explore its association with the South China Sea (SCS) summer monsoon (SCSSM), using station observations and various reanalysis products. This heat wave event started in mid-May 2018 and persisted more than 15 days, when the maximum air temperature anomaly exceeded 6 °C. Meanwhile, the onset of the SCSSM was extremely late in 2018, primarily due to the intrusion of easterly winds over the SCS. We show that the anomalous easterlies over the SCS associated with the delayed SCSSM could block the moisture transport from the tropical oceans to SC, which led to decreased rainfall, increased surface radiation, and elevated probability of heat wave in SC during May 2018. Further analysis reveals that both SC heat waves and SCSSM were significantly affected by the Pacific subtropical high (PSH). The westward extension of the PSH can hinder the establishment of SCSSM via inducing easterly anomalies over the SCS, which reduces SC rainfall and results in a drier surface condition. Moreover, the westward displacement of the PSH may cause anomalously high pressures, descending air motions, and divergent winds over SC, which triggers above-normal air temperatures that are conducive to the occurrences of SC heat waves. This study also underlines the importance of Eurasian planetary wave trains in bridging the upstream climate variability and the changes in PSH during boreal spring, which could be used to improve the intra-seasonal predictions of SC heat wave and SCSSM onset. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Projecting regional rainfall changes in a warmer climate attracts ongoing attention. However, large uncertainty still exists in multi-model projection. In this study, we introduce a bias-corrected method to correct the multi-model projection of changes in East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) rainfall based on the historical and RCP8.5 runs of 25 models from phase 5 of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. Firstly, the total rainfall changes are separated into the thermodynamic component due to increased specific humidity and the dynamic component due to circulation changes. The thermodynamic component is corrected using the observed present-day rainfall and the increase rate of specific humidity based on the wet-get-wetter mechanism. On the other hand, the dynamic component with the circulation changes is corrected based on a "spatial emergent constraint" method, which is further validated by the perfect model approach. Together, these corrections give an integrated projection for EASM rainfall changes under global warming. Such an approach can improve the signal-to-noise ratio of projection effectively, from the original 0.73 of the multimodel mean to around 1.9. The corrected projection of EASM rainfall changes shows a pronounced increase in southern China, the northwest Pacific and a belt from northern China to northeastern China, and a weak increase in other EASM regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The carbon budgets in terrestrial ecosystems in China are strongly coupled with climate changes. Over the past decade, China has experienced dramatic climate changes characterized by enhanced summer monsoon and decelerated warming. However, the changes in the trends of terrestrial net ecosystem production (NEP) in China under climate changes are not well documented. Here, we used three ecosystem models to simulate the spatiotemporal variations in China's NEP during 1982–2010 and quantify the contribution of the strengthened summer monsoon and warming hiatus to the NEP variations in four distinct climatic regions of the country. Our results revealed a decadal-scale shift in NEP from a downtrend of –5.95 Tg C/yr2 (reduced sink) during 1982–2000 to an uptrend of 14.22 Tg C/yr2 (enhanced sink) during 2000–10. This shift was essentially induced by the strengthened summer monsoon, which stimulated carbon uptake, and the warming hiatus, which lessened the decrease in the NEP trend. Compared to the contribution of 56.3% by the climate effect, atmospheric CO2 concentration and nitrogen deposition had relatively small contributions (8.6 and 11.3%, respectively) to the shift. In conclusion, within the context of the global-warming hiatus, the strengthening of the summer monsoon is a critical climate factor that enhances carbon uptake in China due to the asymmetric response of photosynthesis and respiration. Our study not only revealed the shift in ecosystem carbon sequestration in China in recent decades, but also provides some insight for understanding ecosystem carbon dynamics in other monsoonal areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study evaluates the simulation of the coherent circulation structure correspond to the changes of mid-summer (July-August) rainfall over eastern China (30°-40° N, 110°-120° E) in high-resolution NCAR CAM5. Forced by historical sea surface temperatures (SSTs), the NCAR CAM5 reasonably reproduces coherent changes of temperature and large-scale circulations, corresponding to the changes in rainfall. Results show that when the rainfall decreases over eastern China, the model reproduces a remarkable warm center in the upper troposphere with an anomalous anticyclone appears above and an increase in anomalous westerlies to its north. An anomalous anticyclone also occurs in the lower troposphere, along with anomalous southerlies to its east which indicates strengthening of the East Asian summer monsoon. Both the circulation changes in the upper and lower troposphere favor a decrease in precipitation over central eastern China. There were also good correlations between the simulated upper-tropospheric temperature and other large-scale circulation changes. There are some deficiencies in the NCAR CAM5 simulations in terms of the changes in magnitude and location of the rainfall centers. However, in general, the model reasonably reproduced the coherent configuration of the large-scale circulation patterns and surface rainfall. This study further confirms that the climate variations across East Asia most likely arise from a regional response to global climate change. The well-simulated configuration by NCAR CAM5 also indicates the reliability of the model and its potential to reveal the mechanisms driving the coherent changes of the East Asian summer monsoon system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Robust surface warming with distinct interdecadal variations has been observed in the offshore area of China and adjacent seas (hereafter, offshore China) during winter and summer of the period 1958-2014. Acceleration of this warming during 1980-99 at rates greater than the global mean warming rate was accompanied by a weakening of the East Asian monsoon (EAM) and a strengthening of the west Pacific subtropical high (WPSH). It was determined that the sea surface temperature (SST) variation in offshore China correlates very well with changes in the EAM wind on interdecadal time scales. It was also established that the enhanced oceanic lateral heat transfer, mainly attributed to the leading empirical orthogonal function (EOF1), weakening EAM wind mode, has a central role in robust interdecadal winter surface warming in offshore China. However, except for the effect of oceanic lateral heat transfer, the increased surface heat flux through radiative heating related to the third EOF (EOF3) strengthening EAM anticyclone wind mode (WPSH) in summer appears to have a greater contribution to interdecadal summer surface warming in offshore China. These results help clarify the relationship between interdecadal SST variations, EAM, oceanic currents, and sea surface flux in offshore China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A dynamic recycling model (DRM) with an analytical moisture trajectory tracking method, together with Japan Meteorological Agency 25-year reanalysis data, is used to study the regional precipitation recycling process across China, by calculating the regional recycling ratio ( ρ ) at the daily time scale during 1979-2010. The distribution of ρ shows that, in western China, especially the Tibetan Plateau and its surrounding areas, precipitation is strongly dependent on the recycling process associated with regional evaporation. In Southeast China, however, the contribution from the recycling processes is much smaller due to the influence of the summer monsoon. A precipitation threshold value of about 4 mm/day is obtained from detailed analysis of both extreme and all-range ρ years. According to this threshold, China is classified into three types of sub-regions: low-precipitation sub-regions (mainly in the northwest), high-precipitation sub-regions (mainly in the south), and medium-precipitation sub-regions (mainly in the northeast). It is found that ρ correlates positively with precipitation, as well as convective precipitation ( P ) and large-scale precipitation ( P ) in the low-precipitation sub-regions. However, negative ρ ∼ P correlations are found in the high-precipitation sub-regions and nonsignificant correlations exist in the medium-precipitation sub-regions. As P is mainly locally generated due to mid-latitude mesoscale systems and the cumulus parameterization used in producing the reanalysis, the recycling ratio positively correlates to the ratio P / P in almost all sub-regions, particularly in the Tibetan Plateau and its surrounding areas. The correlation between radiation flux and ρ suggests more net radiation supports more evaporation and higher ρ , especially in the high-precipitation sub-regions. The influence of clouds on shortwave radiation is crucial, since evaporation is suppressed when the amount of cloudiness increases, especially in the high-precipitation sub-regions. Together with the consideration of soil moisture, it can be inferred that limited soil moisture inhibits evaporation in the low-precipitation sub-regions, while the energy or radiation is the dominant factor controlling evaporation in the high-precipitation sub-regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To achieve a better understanding of Holocene climate change in the monsoon regions of China, we investigated the molecular distributions and carbon and hydrogen isotope compositions (δ13C and δD values) of long-chain n-alkanes in a peat core from the Shiwangutian (SWGT) peatland, south China over the last 9 ka. By comparisons with other climate records, we found that the δ13C values of the long-chain n-alkanes can be a proxy for humidity, while the δD values of the long-chain n-alkanes primarily recorded the moisture source δD signal during 9–1.8 ka BP and responded to the dry climate during 1.8–0.3 ka BP. Together with the average chain length (ACL) and the carbon preference index (CPI) data, the climate evolution over last 9 ka in the SWGT peatland can be divided into three stages. During the first stage (9–5 ka BP), the δ13C values were depleted and CPI and Paq values were low, while ACL values were high. They reveal a period of warm and wet climate, which is regarded as the Holocene optimum. The second stage (5–1.8 ka BP) witnessed a shift to relatively cool and dry climate, as indicated by the more positive δ13C values and lower ACL values. During the third stage (1.8–0.3 ka BP), the δ13C, δD, CPI and Paq values showed marked increase and ACL values varied greatly, implying an abrupt change to cold and dry conditions. This climate pattern corresponds to the broad decline in Asian monsoon intensity through the latter part of the Holocene. Our results do not support a later Holocene optimum in south China as suggested by previous studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Long-term changes in surface wind speed (SWS) are influenced by both large-scale circulation and relative resistance. The effects of large-scale circulation are embodied by the pressure-gradient force (PGF), which is mostly a natural factor, whereas the resistance is due to the drag between the air and the surface as well as in the different boundary layers, which is mainly caused by the anthropogenic land use and cover change (LUCC). We performed experiments using a simple dynamical method in which a balance among the PGF, Coriolis force, and drag is reached to separate the effects of the PGF and LUCC on the SWS, and then, to quantitatively estimate the influence of the LUCC on the SWS over the East China Plain (ECP) during the period 1980-2011. The results show a distinct decrease in the SWS in the station observation data with a rate of −0.13 m s (10 year), but there is no statistically significant long-term trend in the reanalysis data. At the same time, the drag coefficient induced by the LUCC shows an increasing trend, which is consistent with the 30 % increase in the rate of urbanization during the study period. In addition, the PGF fluctuates with distinct seasonal and interannual changes, and it has an insignificant long-term increasing trend during the period 1980-2011. At the same time, the spatial distribution of the linear trend coefficient of the normalized PGF is inconsistent with that of the SWS, but the linear trend coefficient of the normalized drag coefficient shows a similar spatial distribution as the SWS. Therefore, the increase in the drag coefficient induced by the LUCC should account for the long-term decrease in the SWS. The difference between the model wind speed, in which the drag coefficient is constrained to its value in the year 1980, and the observed wind speed at each station (SWSD) can reflect the influence of the LUCC on the SWS. Furthermore, the long-term changes in East Asian monsoons may not completely account for the observed wind speed decrease near the surface in the ECP region, but it is an important factor in the SWS. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Northeastern China involves complex interactions between the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) circulation and the polar climate system, and plays a significant role as the bridge communicating low- and high-latitude climatic processes. High-resolution multi-proxy analysis of a robust accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS) 14C dated lacustrine sediment core recovered from Jingpo Lake in Northeastern China provides a detailed history of EASM variability and vegetation changes since ~5100 cal. yr BP. The period from ~5100 to 3600 cal. yr BP was characterized by the highest pollen percentages of Quercus, Ulmus, Juglans and Corylopsis; low Md (median grain size diameter); and high δ13Corg values, reflecting a relatively warm and humid period. The period between ~3600 and 2100 cal. yr BP is characterized by high Md and low δ13Corg values, and a rapid increase in pollen percentages of herbs, indicating cool and dry climatic conditions. From ~2100 to 150 cal. yr BP, a gradual increase in δ13Corg values and low Md values, and a rapid increase in Carpinus, Juglans and Corylopsis pollen percentages was observed, indicating climate change towards warmer and wetter conditions. After ~150 cal. yr BP, the highest values of total organic carbon mass accumulation rate (TOC-MAR), total nitrogen mass accumulation rate (TN-MAR) and magnetic susceptibility suggesting that the Jingpo Lake region has been severely affected by human activities. The EASM variability in Northeastern China during the mid- to late Holocene shows trends similar to EASM records in China. Furthermore, our findings indicate that the variability of the EASM during the mid- to late Holocene on the multi-decadal to centennial scale was forced by changes in both solar output and oceanic–atmospheric circulation interaction. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

This review provides a synopsis of the major progress that has been made in monsoon studies in China and to further bridge the gap between the Chinese and international meteorological community. It consists of seven major sections. After the introduction, the second section begins with the global monsoon systems and their seasonal variation, based on some new methods proposed in recent years. Besides, some major intraseasonal features of East Asian monsoon, including the onset of South China Sea summer monsoon are discussed. In the third section, we review the interactions between ENSO and the East Asian monsoon, focusing in particular on the results of Chinese meteorologists that indicate the influence of ENSO on the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) is obviously different from that on the tropical monsoon. Besides the tropical Pacific, other ocean basins, such as the Indian Ocean and the Atlantic Ocean, are also important to the East Asian monsoon, and this topic is discussed in the fourth section. In the fifth section, we address the role of land surface processes in East Asian monsoon. For example, we describe work that has shown more snow cover in spring on the Tibetan Plateau is followed by a weakened EASM and more summer rainfall in the Yangtze River valleys. The sixth section focuses on the influence of atmospheric circulation in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) on EASM, demonstrating how the signal from the SH is likely to provide new clues for the seasonal forecasting of summer rainfall in China. Finally, in the seventh section, we concentrate on the interdecadal variations of EASM. In particular, we look at a significant interdecadal variation that occurred at the end of the 1970s, and how our understanding of this feature could affect forecasting ability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The occurrence of bumper or poor grain harvests in ancient China plays an important role in explaining how past climate changes affected the economy. Because of the lack of long-term continuous and high-resolution quantitative data for reconstructing the series of grain harvests in ancient China, understanding of the impacts and mechanisms involved in climate change is limited. This study presents a method designed for reconstructing grain harvest series by quantifying grain output levels based on the descriptions in historical documents. The method involves setting the grain output level for each year based on very specific meanings of different words, calculating a yield index based on the structure of each level and assessing grain yields (bumper or poor harvests) every 10 years. First, 1636 records related to grain yields (including crop yields, food security, agricultural disasters, grain prices, grain storage and people's livelihoods) for each year were retrieved from history books called the Twenty-Four Histories. Second, using this method, a 10-year resolution graded grain harvest series from the Western Han Dynasty to the Five Dynasties (206 BC-960 AD) is reconstructed. Finally, the relationship between the variations in temperature and precipitation and the fluctuation of grain yields is examined. The results show that from the Western Han Dynasty to the Five Dynasties, bumper, average and poor harvest decades accounted for 33.3%, 39.3% and 27.4% of the 1,166-year period, respectively. The grain yields during 206 BC-960 AD can be divided into three stages: a period of bumper harvests during 206-51 BC, poor harvests during 50 BC-590 AD and bumper harvests during 591-960 AD. Bumper harvest decades typically experienced a warm climate with normal or high levels of precipitation, while poor harvest decades had a cold and dry climate. A positive correlation was found between temperature and grain yield because a warm climate allows a full use of resources. The observed relationship between precipitation and grain yield indicated that both flooding and droughts cause poor harvests, which confirms that agricultural production in the monsoon climate of eastern China is greatly impacted by conditions of limited heat and extreme precipitation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An assessment of how future climate change will impact water provision services is important for formulating rational water resources management and development strategies as well as for ecosystem protection. The East Asian monsoon is an important component of the Asian climate and its changes affect the climate in East Asia and seriously affect the provision of water services. In this study, through the coupling of the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) model and Statistical Downscaling Technique Model (SDSM), we evaluated the impact of future climate change on water provisions in a typical East Asian monsoon basin of South China. The results demonstrate the applicability of the InVEST model combined with the SDSM model over the East Asian monsoon river basins. Under representative concentration pathway 4.5 scenario (RCP4.5), the annual average maximum and minimum temperatures would continually increase far into the future (2080–2095). However, the maximum and minimum temperatures slightly decreased under representative concentration pathway 2.6 scenario (RCP2.6) in the far future (2080–2095). The annual average precipitation and reference evapotranspiration experienced slight but steady increasing trends under the RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 scenarios. Based on the InVEST model simulation, annual average water yield would increase by 19.3% (33.5%) far in the future (2080–2095) under RCP2.6 (4.5) scenario. This study provides a valuable reference for studying future climate change impacts on water provisions in East Asian monsoon basins. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Long-term studies have revealed that forest species composition was shifting under environment change and disturbance induced by loss of large trees. Yet, few studies explicitly analyzed their impacts on composition concurrently. To learn more about impacts of environment change and disturbance on driving forest community, we investigated shifts in functional composition over past 24 years in an old-growth subtropical forest in southern China. We analyzed nine traits that are mainly related to leaf nutrients, photosynthetic capacity, hydraulic conductivity, and drought tolerance of plants and examined hypotheses: (1) The functional composition change over time was directional instead of random fluctuation, (2) drought-tolerant species increased their abundance under soil dryness, (3) both environmental change and disturbance related to changes of functional composition significantly, and (4) initial trait values of quadrats strongly influenced their subsequent change rates in quadrat level (10 × 10 m). We found that species composition had shifted to favor species with high leaf nutrient content, high photosynthesis rate, high hydraulic conductivity, low water-use efficiency, and high drought tolerance traits, which was due to soil dryness and disturbance. These two factors explained 47–58% of quadrats' trait value changes together. Considering rapidly increasing stem density, this pattern may indicate ecological processes of which disturbance provided numerous recruits of resource-acquisition strategy species and soil dryness conducted a selecting effect on shaping composition in the forest. Additionally, quadrats with initial trait values at the far end of change direction shifted faster in three traits, which also indicated that functional composition changes in quadrats were directional and homogenized. Our results implied that environment change and accompanied disturbance events possibly drove species composition change along a different trajectory in the subtropical forest that experienced high climatic variability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Shaksgam Valley, located on the north side of the Karakoram Mountains of western China, is situated in the transition zone between the Indian monsoon system and dry arid climate zones. Previous studies have reported abnormal behaviors of the glaciers in this region compared to the global trend of glacier retreat, so the region is of special interest for glacier-climatological studies. For this purpose, long-term monitoring of glaciers in this region is necessary to obtain a better understanding of the relationships between glacier changes and local climate variations. However, accurate historical and up-to-date glacier inventory data for the region are currently unavailable. For this reason, this study conducted glacier inventories for the years 1970, 1980, 1990, 2000 and 2014 (i.e., a ~10-year interval) using multi-temporal remote sensing imagery. The remote sensing data used included Corona KH-4A/B (1965–1971), Hexagon KH-9 (1980), Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) (1990/1993), Landsat Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+) (2000/2001), and Landsat Operational Land Imager (OLI) and Thermal Infrared Sensor (TIRS) (2014/2015) multispectral satellite images, as well as digital elevation models (DEMs) from the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM), DEMs generated from Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) images (2005–2014), and Advanced Land Observing Satellite (ALOS) World 3D 30 m mesh (AW3D30). In the year 2014, a total of 173 glaciers (including 121 debris-free glaciers) (>0.5 km2), covering an area of 1478 ± 34 km2 (area of debris-free glaciers: 295 ± 7 km2) were mapped. The multi-temporal glacier inventory results indicated that total glacier area change between 1970–2014 was not significant. However, individual glacier changes showed significant variability. Comparisons of the changes in glacier terminus position indicated that 55 (32 debris-covered) glaciers experienced significant advances (~40–1400 m) between 1970–2014, and 74 (32 debris-covered) glaciers experienced significant advances (~40–1400 m) during the most recent period (2000–2014). Notably, small glaciers showed higher sensitivity to climate changes, and the glaciers located in the western part of the study site were exhibiting glacier area expansion compared to other parts of the Shaksgam Valley. Finally, regression analyses indicated that topographic parameters were not the main driver of glacier changes. On the contrary, local climate variability could explain the complex behavior of glaciers in this region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]