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Global COVID-19 legislation contains the spread of the disease. However, the Nigerian government's response to the spread of the virus suffers some technical flaws. Consequently, this paper asks how Nigeria's response to the pandemic compares with those of the United States of America (US) and the United Kingdom (UK). Qualitatively, it seeks to substantiate the proposition that Nigeria's response relies too heavily on executive directives and extra-judicial controls, leading to human rights abuses. Even worse is the absence of specific provisions in the Nigerian legislation detailing the application of remote hearing to facilitate redress arising from these infractions comparable to what is obtainable in the US and UK. The paper highlights the several loopholes demonstrated by Nigeria's legal response to the COVID-19 pandemic, its impact, and the lessons the Nigerian government can adapt based on the US and UK experiences. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The year 2020 has seen the world gripped by the effects of the COVID‐19 pandemic. It is not the first time, nor will it be last, that our increasingly globalized world has been significantly affected by the emergence of a new disease. In much of the Northern Hemisphere, the academic year begins in September, and for many countries, September 2020 marked the return to full schooling after some period of enforced closure due to COVID‐19. In this paper, we focus on the airborne spread of disease and investigate the likelihood of transmission in school environments. It is crucial to understand the risk airborne infection from COVID‐19 might pose to pupils, teachers, and their wider social groups. We use monitored CO2 data from 45 classrooms in 11 different schools from within the UK to estimate the likelihood of infection occurring within classrooms regularly attended by the same staff and pupils. We determine estimates of the number of secondary infections arising via the airborne route over pre/asymptomatic periods on a rolling basis. Results show that, assuming relatively quiet desk‐based work, the number of secondary infections is likely to remain reassuringly below unity; however, it can vary widely between classrooms of the same school even when the same ventilation system is present. Crucially, the data highlight significant variation with the seasons with January being nearly twice as risky as July. We show that such seasonal variations in risk due to changes in ventilation rates are robust and our results hold for wide variations in disease parameterizations, suggesting our results may be applied to a number of different airborne diseases. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background Few pediatric cases of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) have been reported and we know little about the epidemiology in children, although more is known about other coronaviruses. We aimed to understand the infection rate, clinical presentation, clinical outcomes, and transmission dynamics for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), in order to inform clinical and public health measures. Methods We undertook a rapid systematic review and narrative synthesis of all literature relating to SARS-CoV-2 in pediatric populations. The search terms also included SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV. We searched 3 databases and the COVID-19 resource centers of 11 major journals and publishers. English abstracts of Chinese-language papers were included. Data were extracted and narrative syntheses conducted. Results Twenty-four studies relating to COVID-19 were included in the review. Children appear to be less affected by COVID-19 than adults by observed rate of cases in large epidemiological studies. Limited data on attack rate indicate that children are just as susceptible to infection. Data on clinical outcomes are scarce but include several reports of asymptomatic infection and a milder course of disease in young children, although radiological abnormalities are noted. Severe cases are not reported in detail and there are few data relating to transmission. Conclusions Children appear to have a low observed case rate of COVID-19 but may have rates similar to adults of infection with SARS-CoV-2. This discrepancy may be because children are asymptomatic or too mildly infected to draw medical attention and be tested and counted in observed cases of COVID-19. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The unfolding coronavirus (COVID‐19) pandemic has highlighted the global need for robust predictive and containment tools and strategies. COVID‐19 continues to cause widespread economic and social turmoil, and while the current focus is on both minimising the spread of the disease and deploying a range of vaccines to save lives, attention will soon turn to future proofing. In line with this, this paper proposes a prediction and containment model that could be used for pandemics and natural disasters. It combines selective lockdowns and protective cordons to rapidly contain the hazard while allowing minimally impacted local communities to conduct "business as usual" and/or offer support to highly impacted areas. A flexible, easy to use data analytics model, based on Self Organising Maps, is developed to facilitate easy decision making by governments and organisations. Comparative tests using publicly available data for Great Britain (GB) show that through the use of the proposed prediction and containment strategy, it is possible to reduce the peak infection rate, while keeping several regions (up to 25% of GB parliamentary constituencies) economically active within protective cordons. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Some claims have been made that that Covid vaccination is effective against both infection and mortality, even though the WHO is seeking more evidence to determine how well vaccines stop infection and transmission. On the basis of UK daily data over the period 10 January 2021–6 January 2022, evidence is presented indicating that vaccination is not effective against infection but it is highly effective against mortality. This makes scientific sense because the function of vaccination is to stimulate the production of antibodies that fight off the virus, which does not imply the ability to stop infection. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) reproduction number has become an essential parameter for monitoring disease transmission across settings and guiding interventions. The UK published weekly estimates of the reproduction number in the UK starting in May 2020 which are formed from multiple independent estimates. In this paper, we describe methods used to estimate the time-varying SARSCoV-2 reproduction number for the UK. We used multiple data sources and estimated a serial interval distribution from published studies. We describe regional variability and how estimates evolved during the early phases of the outbreak, until the relaxing of social distancing measures began to be introduced in early July. Our analysis is able to guide localized control and provides a longitudinal example of applying these methods over long timescales. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The COVID-19 outbreak is of great concern due to the high rates of infection and the large number of deaths worldwide. In this paper, we considered a Bayesian inference and failure mode and effects analysis of the modified susceptible-exposed-infectious-removed model for the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 with an exponentially distributed infectious period. We estimated the effective reproduction number based on laboratory-confirmed cases and death data using Bayesian inference and analyse the impact of the community spread of COVID-19 across the United Kingdom. We used the failure mode and effects analysis tool to evaluate the effectiveness of the action measures taken to manage the COVID-19 pandemic. We focused on COVID-19 infections and therefore the failure mode is taken as positive cases. The model is applied to COVID-19 data showing the effectiveness of interventions adopted to control the epidemic by reducing the reproduction number of COVID-19. Results have shown that the combination of Bayesian inference, compartmental modelling and failure mode and effects analysis is effective in modelling and studying the risks of COVID-19 transmissions, leading to the quantitative evaluation of the action measures and the identification of the lessons learned from the governmental measures and actions taken in response to COVID-19 in the United Kingdom. Analytical and numerical methods are used to highlight the practical implications of our findings. The proposed methodology will find applications in current and future COVID-19 like pandemics and wide quality engineering. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The COVID-19 outbreak is of great concern due to the high rates of infection and the large number of deaths worldwide. In this paper, we considered a Bayesian inference and failure mode and effects analysis of the modified susceptible-exposed-infectious-removed model for the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 with an exponentially distributed infectious period. We estimated the effective reproduction number based on laboratory-confirmed cases and death data using Bayesian inference and analyse the impact of the community spread of COVID-19 across the United Kingdom. We used the failure mode and effects analysis tool to evaluate the effectiveness of the action measures taken to manage the COVID-19 pandemic. We focused on COVID-19 infections and therefore the failure mode is taken as positive cases. The model is applied to COVID-19 data showing the effectiveness of interventions adopted to control the epidemic by reducing the reproduction number of COVID-19. Results have shown that the combination of Bayesian inference, compartmental modelling and failure mode and effects analysis is effective in modelling and studying the risks of COVID-19 transmissions, leading to the quantitative evaluation of the action measures and the identification of the lessons learned from the governmental measures and actions taken in response to COVID-19 in the United Kingdom. Analytical and numerical methods are used to highlight the practical implications of our findings. The proposed methodology will find applications in current and future COVID-19 like pandemics and wide quality engineering. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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The UEFA EURO 2020 football tournament was one of the largest Sporting Mega Events (SMEs) to take place during the COVID-19 pandemic. Mitigating the risk of virus transmission requires a multi-layered approach for any large event, more so in this case due to staging the tournament across eleven host countries. Yet, little is known about COVID-19 risks and mitigation from attending an event of this scale and nature. We examined the implementation of mitigation and messaging at EURO 2020 matches hosted at venues in the UK. The tournament was postponed from the summer of 2020 and played in June and July of 2021. Structured observations were conducted by 11 trained fieldwork-supporters at 10 matches played at Wembley Stadium, London, or Hampden Park, Glasgow. Fieldwork-supporters observed one-way systems and signage, and hand sanitizing stations inside the stadia, but reported significant variation in the implementation of staggered timeslots, testing upon entry, and procedures for exit. Adherence to planned measures by ticket holders and implementation by stewards waned as the tournament progressed culminating in an absence of enforced measures at the final. The non-compliance with COVID-19 mitigation measures was likely to have led to a significantly increased risk of transmission. Future events should consider how COVID-19 mitigation measures could become 'new norms' of fan behaviour, learning from what is already known about football fandom. Tournament organizers of SMEs can use these findings to promote clearer messaging on pandemic-driven changes in fan behaviour and best practices in mitigating risk at future sporting and cultural events. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There are widespread concerns about the mental health implications of the pandemic, particularly among university students, an already at-risk population for poor mental health. This study looked at 1,281 UK university students, recruited through the Prolific website. Participants were asked to complete the Attitudes towards COVID-19 Scale, the CORE-10, the PERMA Profiler, the GAD-7 and the Office for National Statistics wellbeing questions (ONS4). The first survey was conducted between May 14th and 16th, when the UK was in national lockdown. The second survey was carried out between June 26th and July 15th. There was only an 11% attrition rate between the two time points. Well-being improved overall between the two time points. Some findings were contradictory as overall well-being, anxiety and levels of flourishing improved, but reports of psychological distress increased. It is also important to note that levels of positivity about the pandemic increased as time went on. There was evidence that higher levels of positivity were linked to better mental health outcomes. Encouraging a positive mindset and outlook in students, probably through positive psychology-based interventions, might act as a protective factor against severe mental illness. The wider relevance and practical implications for higher education are discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background defining features of the COVID-19 pandemic in many countries were the tragic extent to which care home residents were affected and the difficulty in preventing the introduction and subsequent spread of infection. Management of risk in care homes requires good evidence on the most important transmission pathways. One hypothesised route at the start of the pandemic, prior to widespread testing, was the transfer of patients from hospitals that were experiencing high levels of nosocomial events. Methods we tested the hypothesis that hospital discharge events increased the intensity of care home cases using a national individually linked health record cohort in Wales, UK. We monitored 186,772 hospital discharge events over the period from March to July 2020, tracking individuals to 923 care homes and recording the daily case rate in the homes populated by 15,772 residents. We estimated the risk of an increase in case rates following exposure to a hospital discharge using multi-level hierarchical logistic regression and a novel stochastic Hawkes process outbreak model. Findings in regression analysis, after adjusting for care home size, we found no significant association between hospital discharge and subsequent increases in care home case numbers (odds ratio: 0.99, 95% CI: 0.82, 1.90). Risk factors for increased cases included care home size, care home resident density and provision of nursing care. Using our outbreak model, we found a significant effect of hospital discharge on the subsequent intensity of cases. However, the effect was small and considerably less than the effect of care home size, suggesting the highest risk of introduction came from interaction with the community. We estimated that approximately 1.8% of hospital discharged patients may have been infected. Interpretation there is growing evidence in the UK that the risk of transfer of COVID-19 from the high-risk hospital setting to the high-risk care home setting during the early stages of the pandemic was relatively small. Although access to testing was limited to initial symptomatic cases in each care home at this time, our results suggest that reduced numbers of discharges, selection of patients and action taken within care homes following transfer all may have contributed to the mitigation. The precise key transmission routes from the community remain to be quantified. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We investigate the climatic influence on COVID-19 transmission risks in 228 cities globally across three climatic zones. The results, based on the application of a Boosted Regression Tree algorithm method, show that average temperature and average relative humidity explain significant variations in COVID-19 transmission across temperate and subtropical regions, whereas in the tropical region, the average diurnal temperature range and temperature seasonality significantly predict the infection outbreak. The number of positive cases showed a decrease sharply above an average temperature of 10°C in the cities of France, Turkey, the US, the UK, and Germany. Among the tropical countries, COVID-19 in Indian cities is most affected by mean diurnal temperature, and those in Brazil by temperature seasonality. The findings have implications on public health interventions, and contribute to the ongoing scientific and policy discourse on the complex interplay of climatic factors determining the risks of COVID-19 transmission. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Late 2020, SARS-CoV-2 Alpha variant emerged in United Kingdom and gradually replaced G614 strains initially involved in the global spread of the pandemic. In this study, we use a Syrian hamster model to compare a clinical strain of Alpha variant with an ancestral G614 strain. The Alpha variant succeed to infect animals and to induce a pathology that mimics COVID-19. However, both strains replicate to almost the same level and induced a comparable disease and immune response. A slight fitness advantage is noted for the G614 strain during competition and transmission experiments. These data do not corroborate the epidemiological situation observed during the first half of 2021 in humans nor reports that showed a more rapid replication of Alpha variant in human reconstituted bronchial epithelium. This study highlights the need to combine data from different laboratories using various animal models to decipher the biological properties of newly emerging SARS-CoV-2 variants. The SARS-CoV-2 Alpha variant exhibits similar transmission dynamics to an ancestral D614G variant in a Syrian hamster model, suggesting the limitations of using the hamster as the sole model to assess differences between SARS-CoV-2 strains. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study aimed to assess (i) COVID‐19 transmission prior to and following spectator events and (ii) methodological approaches to capturing event‐related transmission during the spectator return. Local authority population transmission rates were used to identify higher transmission areas, which were excluded from participant attendance following registration. Using observational online and SMS questionnaires, self‐reported COVID‐19 diagnoses (positive tests) and racing‐related NHS Test and Trace contacts within 14 days of spectating were reported for two British Horseracing events and three Point to Point (PTP) grassroots races. There were 1,477 registrations for the British Horseracing events, and 1,678 registrations for PTP races. Responses were received from 464 attendees of British Horseracing events (31.4% response rate). Two attendees reported a COVID‐19 diagnosis, and no attendees reported NHS Test and Trace contact. From PTP races, 862 attendees (51.3%) consented to receive the SMS survey, and responses were received from 495 attendees (57.4% response rate). Five attendees reported positive COVID‐19 diagnoses, and two attendees reported being contacted by NHS Test and Trace, of which one was following a non‐racing potential COVID‐19 exposure. There was limited evidence of COVID‐19 transmission at outdoor elite and grassroots level horseracing events during autumn 2020. A higher response rate was received with SMS surveys; however, there was a reluctancy to "opt in" to SMS methodology. This study describes different methodological approaches to monitoring COVID‐19 transmission risk at events, which may have relevance for other sporting and event contexts during the current pandemic, and sustained attendances during periods with circulating transmissible diseases. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The entire world has suffered a lot since the outbreak of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) in 2019, so simulation models of COVID-19 dynamics are urgently needed to understand and control the pandemic better. Meanwhile, emotional contagion, the spread of vigilance or panic, serves as a negative feedback to the epidemic, but few existing models take it into consideration. In this study, we proposed an innovative multi-layer hybrid modelling and simulation approach to simulate disease transmission and emotional contagion together. In each layer, we used a hybrid simulation method combining agent-based modelling (ABM) with system dynamics modelling (SDM), keeping spatial heterogeneity while reducing computation costs. We designed a new emotion dynamics model IWAN (indifferent, worried, afraid and numb) to simulate emotional contagion inside a community during an epidemic. Our model was well fit to the data of China, the UK and the US during the COVID-19 pandemic. If there weren't emotional contagion, our experiments showed that the confirmed cases would increase rapidly, for instance, the total confirmed cases during simulation in Guangzhou, China would grow from 334 to 2096, which increased by 528%. We compared the calibrated emotional contagion parameters of different countries and found that the suppression effect of emotional contagion in China is relatively more visible than that in the US and the UK. Due to the experiment results, the proposed multi-layer network model with hybrid simulation is valid and can be applied to the quantitative analysis of the epidemic trends and the suppression effect of emotional contagion in different countries. Our model can be modified for further research to study other social factors and intervention policies in the COVID-19 pandemic or future epidemics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: By nature of their specialty, otolaryngologists are disproportionately exposed to coronavirus disease 2019 through aerosol-generating procedures and close proximity to the oropharynx during examination. Methods: Our single-centre, retrospective study analysed the pertinence of guidelines produced by ENT UK to improve the investigation and management of suspected upper aerodigestive fish bone foreign bodies during the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic. Results: Our results demonstrated 43.3 per cent (n = 13) low-risk cases and 56.7 per cent (n = 17) moderate-risk cases. Nine fish bones (two low risk, seven moderate risk) were found; none of these were confirmed with X-ray and three (moderate risk) required nasoendoscopy for diagnosis. One patient required rigid pharyngoscopy. Conclusion: This study confirms that soft tissue neck X-ray and flexible nasoendoscopy are unnecessary in low-risk cases; however, early nasoendoscopy in higher suspicion cases is appropriate. Recommendations are made about the long-term sustainability of these guidelines, and additional measures are encouraged that relate to repeat attendances and varying prevalence of coronavirus disease 2019 in the hospital catchment area. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak started in December 2019 and rapidly spread around the world affecting millions of people. With the growth of infection rate, many countries adopted different policies to control the spread of the disease. The UK implemented strict rules instructing individuals to stay at home except in some special circumstances starting from 23 March 2020. Accordingly, this study focuses on sensitivity analysis of transmissibility of the infection as the effects of removing restrictions, for example by returning different occupational groups to their normal working environment and its effect on the reproduction number in the UK. For this reason, available social contact matrices are adopted for the population of UK to account for the average number of contacts. Different scenarios are then considered to analyse the variability of total contacts on the reproduction number in the UK as a whole and each of its four nations. Our data-driven retrospective analysis shows that if more than 38.5% of UK working-age population return to their normal working environment, the reproduction number in the UK is expected to be higher than 1. However, analysis of each nation, separately, shows that local reproduction number in each nation may be different and requires more adequate analysis. Accordingly, we believe that using statistical methods and historical data can provide good estimation of local transmissibility and reproduction number in any region. As a consequence of this analysis, efforts to reduce the restrictions should be implemented locally via different control policies. It is important that these policies consider the social contacts, population density, and the occupational groups that are specific to each region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic is disrupting health services worldwide. We aimed to evaluate the provision of obstetrics and gynaecology services in the UK during the acute phase of the COVID-19 pandemic.Design: Interview-based national survey.Setting: Women's healthcare units in the National Health Service.Population: Junior doctors in obstetrics and gynaecology.Methods: Participants were interviewed by members of the UK Audit and Research in Obstetrics and Gynaecology trainees' collaborative between 28 March and 7 April 2020. We used a quantitative analysis for closed-ended questions and a thematic framework analysis for open comments.Results: We received responses from 148/155 units (95%), most of the participants were in years 3-7 of training (121/148, 82%). Most completed specific training drills for managing obstetric and gynaecological emergencies in women with COVID-19 (89/148, 60.1%) and two-person donning and doffing of Personal Protective Equipment (PPE) (96/148, 64.9%). The majority of surveyed units implemented COVID-19-specific protocols (130/148, 87.8%), offered adequate PPE (135/148, 91.2%) and operated dedicated COVID-19 emergency theatres (105/148, 70.8%). Most units reduced face-to-face antenatal clinics (117/148, 79.1%) and suspended elective gynaecology services (131/148, 88.5%). The 2-week referral pathway for oncological gynaecology was not affected in half of the units (76/148, 51.4%), but half reported a planned reduction in oncology surgery (82/148, 55.4%).Conclusion: The provision of obstetrics and gynaecology services in the UK during the acute phase of the COVID-19 pandemic seems to be in line with current guidelines, but strategic planning is needed to restore routine gynaecology services and ensure safe access to maternity care in the long term.Tweetable Abstract: Provision of obstetrics and gynaecology services during the acute phase of COVID-19 is in line with current guidelines, strategic planning is needed to restore routine services and ensure safe access to care in the long term. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: To mitigate and slow the spread of COVID-19, many countries have adopted unprecedented physical distancing policies, including the UK. We evaluate whether these measures might be sufficient to control the epidemic by estimating their impact on the reproduction number (R0, the average number of secondary cases generated per case).Methods: We asked a representative sample of UK adults about their contact patterns on the previous day. The questionnaire was conducted online via email recruitment and documents the age and location of contacts and a measure of their intimacy (whether physical contact was made or not). In addition, we asked about adherence to different physical distancing measures. The first surveys were sent on Tuesday, 24 March, 1 day after a "lockdown" was implemented across the UK. We compared measured contact patterns during the "lockdown" to patterns of social contact made during a non-epidemic period. By comparing these, we estimated the change in reproduction number as a consequence of the physical distancing measures imposed. We used a meta-analysis of published estimates to inform our estimates of the reproduction number before interventions were put in place.Results: We found a 74% reduction in the average daily number of contacts observed per participant (from 10.8 to 2.8). This would be sufficient to reduce R0 from 2.6 prior to lockdown to 0.62 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.37-0.89) after the lockdown, based on all types of contact and 0.37 (95% CI = 0.22-0.53) for physical (skin to skin) contacts only.Conclusions: The physical distancing measures adopted by the UK public have substantially reduced contact levels and will likely lead to a substantial impact and a decline in cases in the coming weeks. However, this projected decline in incidence will not occur immediately as there are significant delays between infection, the onset of symptomatic disease, and hospitalisation, as well as further delays to these events being reported. Tracking behavioural change can give a more rapid assessment of the impact of physical distancing measures than routine epidemiological surveillance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An editorial is presented on the infection-prevention goal for acute-care hospitals is to ensure the safety of the patients, families, care team members, and support staff within its walls. Topics include the detection of nosocomial transmission of illness signals a failure somewhere along the way, with measures in use to prevent such occurrences, and the paucity of descriptions of nosocomial transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 in the acute-care setting.