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As global climate change intensifies, nations around the world are implementing policies aimed at reducing emissions, with carbon-trading mechanisms emerging as a key market-based tool. China has launched carbon-trading markets in several cities, achieving significant trading volumes. Carbon-trading mechanisms encompass cap-and-trade markets and voluntary markets, influenced by various factors, including policy changes, economic conditions, energy prices, and climate fluctuations. The complexity of these factors, coupled with the nonlinear and non-stationary nature of carbon prices, makes forecasting a substantial challenge. This paper proposes a dynamic weight hybrid forecasting model based on a dual sliding window approach, effectively integrating multiple forecasting models such as LSTM, Random Forests, and LASSO. This model facilitates a thorough analysis of the influences of policy, market dynamics, technological advancements, and climatic conditions on carbon pricing. It serves as a potent tool for predicting carbon market price fluctuations and offers valuable decision support to stakeholders in the carbon market, ultimately aiding in the global efforts towards emission reduction and achieving sustainable development goals. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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Climate change is currently the biggest environmental challenge facing sustainable development in human society, and it is an inherent requirement for achieving sustainable development by actively addressing climate change. Under the increasingly strict constraints of climate governance, developed countries such as the United States, European Union countries, and Japan have responded and actively formulated low-carbon development goals and policy measures that are in line with their national conditions. These policies mainly involve various fields such as low-carbon technology, energy conservation and emission reduction, and circular development, with clear policy guidance. In this paper, the evolution of policies on marine carbon sink and carbon trading in China is summarized, providing support for better understanding the background of formulating relevant international and domestic policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study explores the impact of political uncertainty on sustainable urban development by examining carbon emission trading systems (ETS) in four major markets in China (Beijing, Shanghai, Guangdong, and Hubei) from 2014 to 2022. As an alternative to carbon taxes, carbon ETS markets have become increasingly popular due to their success in reducing greenhouse gas emissions. However, their effectiveness is often hindered by political instability and uncertainty. Utilising logistic regression and AR(1)-GARCH estimations, we identify a negative relationship between political uncertainty and carbon trading volume. Our study also reveals significant variations in the responses of these markets to political uncertainty. The paper contributes to the understanding of how ETS markets operate in a complex and constantly changing political environment. We suggest that policymakers need to consider the impact of political uncertainty on carbon trading when designing and implementing urban policies that promote sustainable development. Additionally, our research contributes to the development of urban policies that can be effectively implemented in both developed and developing regions. • Local government official turnovers are used as the measurement of political uncertainty. • Daily transaction data from four carbon ETS markets (Beijing, Shanghai, Hubei and Guangdong) in China • Considered the probability and proportion of zero transaction day • Logistic regression and AR(1)-GARCH estimations • A negative relationship between political uncertainty and carbon transaction volume [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]