Search

Western disturbances (WDs) are synoptic-scale weather systems embedded within the subtropical westerly jet. Manifesting as upper-level troughs often associated with a lower-tropospheric low over Western India, they share some dynamical features with extratropical cyclones. WDs are most common during the boreal winter (December to March), during which they bring the majority of precipitation – both rain and snow – to the Western Himalaya, as well as to surrounding areas of north India, Pakistan and the Tibetan Plateau. WDs are also associated with weather hazards such as heavy snowfall, hailstorms, fog, cloudbursts, avalanches, frost, and coldwaves. In this paper, we review the recent understanding and development on WDs. Recent studies have collectively made use of novel data, novel analysis techniques, and the increasing availability of high-resolution weather and climate models. This review is separated into six main sections – structure and thermodynamics, precipitation and impacts, teleconnections, modelling experiments, forecasting at a range of scales, and paleoclimate and climate change – each motivated with a brief discussion of the accomplishments and limitations of previous research. A number of step changes in understanding are synthesised. Use of new modelling frameworks and tracking algorithms has significantly improved knowledge of WD structure and variability, and a more frequentist approach can now be taken. Improved observation systems have helped quantification of water security over the Western Himalaya. Convection-permitting models have improved our understanding of how WDs interact with the Himalayas to trigger natural hazards. Improvements in paleoclimate and future climate modelling experiments have helped to explain how WDs and their impacts over the Himalaya respond to large-scale natural and anthropogenic forcings. We end by summarising unresolved questions and outlining key future WD research topics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper aims to update our understanding of the carbon cycle in the Himalayas, the most intense collisional orogeny globally, by providing new insight into its impact on Cenozoic climate cooling through the use of isotopic variations in both organic and inorganic carbon and an isotopic mass balance model. Our results from 20 selected hot springs show that the relative contributions of dissolved carbon from the mantle, metamorphic decarbonization, aqueous dissolution, and soil organic matter are approximately 2%, 82%, 6%, and 10%, respectively. Approximately 87% ± 5% of CO2 generated in the deep crust precipitates as calcite, while approximately 5.5% ± 1% of this carbon is converted to biomass through microbial chemosynthesis at depths less than 2 km. Our random forests approach yielded a metamorphic carbon flux from the entire Himalayan orogenic belt of approximately 2.7 ∼ 4.5 × 1012 mol/yr. The minor CO2 released into the atmosphere (2.5 ∼ 4.2 × 1011 mol/yr) is comparable to the carbon consumption driven by Himalayan weathering. This paper provides new insights into deep carbon cycling, notably that approximately 93% of deeply sourced carbon is trapped in the shallow crust, rendering orogenic processes carbon neutral and possibly acting as one of the major triggers of long‐term climate cooling in the Cenozoic. Plain Language Summary: Large‐scale deep metamorphic decarbonization and CO2 release into the atmosphere during continental collision orogenesis worldwide have had significant impacts on Cenozoic global climate change. However, the carbon sources and sinks and the mechanisms underlying their impacts on climate change are not fully understood. This paper reports the chemistry of aqueous solutions, carbon isotopic compositions of dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) and dissolved organic carbon (DOC), and helium and carbon isotopic compositions of free gases from hot springs in southern Tibet. The carbon isotope fractionation model between gas and aqueous solutions revealed that the carbon released from depth underwent six different stages. Based on the random forests machine learning algorithm, we estimated the metamorphic carbon flux across the Himalayan orogenic belt. Furthermore, only a small fraction (7%) of deep carbon is eventually released into the atmosphere, and this volume is the same magnitude as the amount of carbon absorbed by silicate weathering on the Tibetan Plateau. This paper emphasizes that the carbon sequestration process in the upper crust may have resulted in nearly carbon‐neutral geological bodies in the Himalayan orogenic belt, thus playing a critical role in Cenozoic climate cooling. Key Points: Approximately 87% of deeply sourced carbon precipitates as calcite, while approximately 5.5% is sequestered as biomass in the shallow crustThe carbon flux across the Himalayan orogenic belt was estimated by the random forests approachCrustal thickening has attenuated long‐term deep carbon emissions from the Himalayas [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Tibetan Plateau (TP) vegetation plays an important role in the local ecosystem, which responds significantly to climate change and can affect local and large-scale weather and climate anomalies. However, little attention has been paid to its year-to-year variation. In this paper, using two NDVI datasets (GIMMS and MODIS) originated from satellite remote sensing, the variability characteristics of NDVI over the TP on the interannual time scale and associated local climatic factors were investigated. The results show that two primary patterns of NDVI governed TP during the main growing season (June–September, JJAS) for the period 1982–2020. The first one is a uniform pattern, with a consistent spatial variation over the entire TP, and the second is a dipole pattern, with an out-of-phase spatial variation of NDVI between the northern and southern TP. Interannual variations of the different climatic factors regulate the NDVI variability over the different regions of the TP. The interannual variability of the uniform NDVI pattern is mainly affected by the two local climatic factors, the preceding May–August precipitation and simultaneous JJAS sunshine duration. Specifically, NDVIs over the southern and eastern TP have a more significant response to the preceding precipitation and simultaneous sunshine duration, respectively. The variability of the dipole NDVI pattern is primarily modulated by the preceding May–August precipitation and simultaneous surface air temperature, ground surface temperature, and sunshine duration. However, NDVIs over the northern and southern TP have different degrees of response to the four climatic factors, with the most significant response being to preceding precipitation. The combined effect of these factors contributes to the formation of the interannual variability in the uniform and dipole patterns. This paper may shed light on deeply understanding the reasons for the inconsistency in variations of vegetation over the different regions of the TP under climate change. In addition to the effect of local climatic factors that this study focuses on, the influence of external climatic factors on the variability of the TP NDVI deserves further research in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global climate warming has profoundly affected terrestrial ecosystems. The Tibetan Plateau (TP) is an ecologically vulnerable region that emerged as an ideal place for investigating the mechanisms of vegetation response to climate change. In this study, we constructed an annual synthetic NDVI dataset with 500 m resolution based on MOD13A1 products from 2000 to 2021, which were extracted by the Google Earth Engine (GEE) and processed by the Kalman filter. Furthermore, considering topographic and climatic factors, a thorough analysis was conducted to ascertain the causes and effects of the NDVI's spatiotemporal variations on the TP. The main findings are: (1) The vegetation coverage on the TP has been growing slowly over the past 22 years at a rate of 0.0134/10a, with a notable heterogeneity due to its topography and climate conditions. (2) During the study period, the TP generally showed a "warming and humidification" trend. The influence of human activities on vegetation growth has exhibited a favorable trajectory, with a notable acceleration observed since 2011. (3) The primary factor influencing NDVI in the southeastern and western regions of the TP was the increasing temperature. Conversely, vegetation in the northeastern and central regions was mostly regulated by precipitation. (4) Combined with the principal component analysis, a PCA-CNN-LSTM (PCL) model demonstrated significant superiority in modeling NDVI sequences on the Tibetan Plateau. Understanding the results of this paper is important for the sustainable development and the formulation of ecological policies on the Tibetan Plateau. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Tibetan Plateau (TP) plays a crucial role in the climate change of China as well as global climate change. It is therefore of great practical significance to study vegetation and its dynamic changes for regional ecological protection. The combination of a dry climate and notable temperature disparities can lead to intricate effects on the region's vegetation. However, there are few studies exploring the complex effects of diurnal temperature variations on vegetation growth that differ from the effects of mean temperature on the TP, especially under different frozen ground types. Based on the long-time series maximum temperature (Tmax), minimum temperature (Tmin), and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) of the TP, we conducted a comparative study of the warming effects on plant growth under different frozen types. The results exhibit that it warms up faster at night (0.223 °C de−1; p < 0.01) than during the day (0.06 °C de−1; p < 0.01), resulting in a significant decrease in the temperature difference between day and night (−0.078 °C de−1; p < 0.01) in the past few decades. The principal finding of this paper is that Tmin is the dominant temperature indicator for vegetation growth on the TP, which dominates 63.3% of the area for NDVI and 61.4% of the area for GPP, respectively. The results further identify a stronger correlation between air temperature and vegetation growth in seasonal frozen grounds (R = 0.68, p < 0.01) and permafrost regions (R = 0.7, p < 0.01) compared to unfrozen grounds (R = 0.58, p < 0.01). Moreover, the physiological mechanism underlying the asymmetric influence of Tmin and Tmax on vegetation growth is further elucidated in this study. Given that future climate changes are expected to exacerbate these changes, it is imperative to explore additional avenues in pursuit of potential mechanisms that can offer adaptive strategies for safeguarding the ecology of the TP. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Most glaciers on the Tibetan Plateau have experienced continuous mass losses in response to global warming. However, the seasonal dynamics of glaciers on the southeastern Tibetan Plateau have rarely been reported in terms of glacier surface elevation and velocity. This paper presents a first attempt to explore the seasonal dynamics of the debris-covered Dagongba Glacier within the southeastern Tibetan Plateau. We use the multitemporal unoccupied aerial vehicle images collected over the lower ablation zone on 8 June and 17 October 2018, and 13 May 2019, and then perform an analysis concerning climatic fluctuations. The results reveal that the mean surface elevation decrease of the Dagongba Glacier during the warm season ($2.81\pm 0.44$ m) was remarkably higher than the cold season ($0.72\pm 0.45$ m). Particularly notable glacier surface elevation changes were found around supraglacial lakes and ice cliffs where ice ablation rates were $\sim$ 3 times higher than the average. In addition, a larger longitudinal decline of glacier surface velocity was observed in the warm season than that in the cold season. In terms of further comparative analysis, the Dagongba Glacier experienced a decrease in surface velocity between 1982–83 and 2018–19, with a decrease in the warm season possibly twice as large as that in the cold season. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

For the lack of historical water ecology monitoring data and the limitations of traditional morphology-based water ecology reconstruction methods, the response mechanism of lake phytoplankton to climate change in the Tibetan Plateau remains unclear. In this study, we reconstructed the succession of phytoplankton community in Lake Gyaring, located in the northeastern Tibetan Plateau, since the 6th century by using sediment DNA metabarcoding. We found that the diversity and structure succession stages of phytoplankton community were consistent with the global temperature oscillation events, namely, the Medieval Warm Period (800–1300 CE). Little Ice Age (1300–1850 CE) and Current Warm Period (1850–2000 CE). The community structure dominated by Chlorophyta in the Medieval Warm Period gradually changed to that dominated by Bacillariophyta in the Little Ice Age. However, the Current Warm Period did not observe the dominant community structure of Chlorophyta similar to that of the Medieval Warm Period. This finding may be due to the climate change of the Current Warm Period was influenced by multiple human activities, such as increased anthropogenic aerosols, which promoted obvious weakening of the intensity of the summer monsoon, leading to decreased soil erosion and lake mixing, and thus may trigger a strikingly different aquatic ecosystem compared to that during the Medieval Warm Period. In this paper, the combination of genomics and palaeollimnology is helpful to explore the response mechanism of phytoplankton to climate change. [Display omitted] [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Tectonic uplift and climate changes are the two critical factors controlling the evolution of river landscapes and the formation of terraces. However, little is known about the effect of river blockage events on terrace formation along valley areas. In this paper, we investigated the geomorphology, sedimentology, and chronology of Tuanjie (seven staircases) and Taiping (three staircases) Terraces in Diexi. These represent two typical fluvial terraces in the upper Minjiang River in the eastern Tibetan Plateau. These terraces are composed, from bottom to top, of lacustrine deposits, gravels, loess, and paleosol. Taiping Terrace 3 (T3) has two sets of mud-phyllite clasts sequences. Field investigation, Digital Elevation Model (DEM) data, lithofacies, and dating results confirm that terraces T1 to T3 in Taiping correspond to terraces T5 to T7 in Tuanjie. These findings suggest that two damming and four outburst events occurred in the area during the late Pleistocene. The palaeo-dam blocked the river around 32.40±1.91 ka, followed by the first outburst at 27.11±0.18 ka. Then, the palaeo-dam blocked the river again between 27 to 17 ka, and suffered a second dam-breaking event at 17 ka. The third and fourth gradual collapse events respectively occurred at ~10 ka and ~9.35 ka. Combined with the tectonic uplift rate, river incision rate, and high-resolution climate data, our analysis shows that the blockage and collapse of the palaeo-dam have been a major factor in the formation of tectonically active mountainous river terraces. Tectonic movement and climatic fluctuations, on the other end, play a minor role. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent climate and environment over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) have undergone significant changes, dominated by variations in the Westerlies and the Indian summer monsoon. However, long‐term shifts in atmospheric circulation during the transitional seasons are still lacking. Here we investigate the modern distribution of Tsuga pollen over the central‐western TP and confirm it as an indicator of variable atmospheric circulation in spring. By combining our Tsuga record from Taro Co with existing records in the Tsuga pollen source area, we suggest that a potential particle transport pathway from the southern slope of the Himalayas to the interior of the plateau appeared in the spring of the late Holocene. Our results show that the springtime atmospheric circulation over the southwestern TP during the early and late Holocene is closely related to the substantial remnants of ice sheets at northern high latitudes and the frequency of El Niño events, respectively. Plain Language Summary: The spring climate over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) is undergoing significant changes that yield profound impacts on environmental changes such as variations in vegetation phenology and alpine treeline. Knowledge of long‐term variations in atmospheric circulation during spring can improve the understanding of current climatic and environmental change and the projection of future variability. In this paper, we use an exotic pollen grain, which can be transported long distances in the air, as an indicator to trace the variability of spring atmospheric circulation over the TP. The results indicate that the spring meridional atmospheric circulation from the southern slope of the TP to its interior has been enhanced in the last four thousand years, which is mainly influenced by the frequency of El Niño events. Key Points: Spring atmospheric circulation change over the southwestern Tibetan Plateau (TP) during Holocene is reconstructedMeridional atmospheric circulation in spring over the southwestern TP is strengthened in the late HoloceneHigh‐(low‐) latitude forcing mainly influence the variations in spring atmospheric circulation during the early (late) Holocene [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The growth history of the Tibetan Plateau provides a valuable natural laboratory to understand tectonic processes of the India–Asia collision and their impact on and interactions with Asian and global climate change. However, both Tibetan Plateau growth and Asian paleoenvironments are generally poorly documented in pre-Pliocene times and reflect limited temporal coverage for different parts of the plateau. In this paper, the 238 m thick Cenozoic sediments in the Hongzhuang section of the Xunhua Basin were tested and analyzed via paleomagnetic and environmental magnetic methods. The formation age was determined, and the evolution history of the regional climate environment was analyzed. The magnetostratigraphy study shows that the sediments record a continuous sequence of geomagnetic polarity changes from C5ACn to C10r, which spans an interval of approximately 30~14.3 Ma from the early Oligocene to the middle Miocene. The magnetic susceptibility of the Hongzhuang section is basically similar to the deep-sea oxygen isotope fluctuation, indicating that the monsoon climate change indicated by the magnetic susceptibility is affected by global temperature. It is worth noting that at ~27 Ma and ~15 Ma, there is a negative correlation between magnetic susceptibility and deep-sea oxygen isotope, and magnetic susceptibility lags behind the increase in deep-sea oxygen isotope. Combined with the change in the sedimentary rate curve, we explain the asynchrony between the magnetic susceptibility and the deep-sea oxygen isotope around ~27 Ma and ~15 Ma. As the uplift of the plateau leads to the enhancement of the East Asian summer monsoon, the soil formation in the region is strengthened, resulting in an increase in magnetic susceptibility. At the same time, the rapid uplift of the plateau caused the erosion of the surrounding mountains to strengthen, and the input of near-source materials may promote the increase in magnetic susceptibility. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate warming causes permafrost degradation that not only leads to the release of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere, but also to soil moisture increases due to ground ice melt. These processes are particularly prevalent in peat‐rich and ice‐rich permafrost regions. Peat is important because of its high organic matter content and soil moisture. Although previous work has focused on the importance of two factors, their precise quantitative impact on permafrost is still not clear. Here we apply the Geophysical Institute Permafrost Laboratory model and sensitivity experiments to quantify the role of organic matter and soil moisture on permafrost, with a case study focused on the northeastern Tibetan Plateau. We verify that organic matter and soil moisture has a cooling effect in the warm season and an insulating effect in the cold season. The average thawing onset was delayed 10 days at 0.05–1.4 m depths, when organic matter content increases from 0% to 90%. Freezing onset occurs slightly earlier. Furthermore, active layer thickness (ALT) decreased by 0.40 m. Soil moisture has similar effect on permafrost as organic matter, but ALT changes have a higher magnitude, decreasing by 0.46 m. The results show that both organic matter and soil moisture have an insulating effect on permafrost. Further, the magnitude of impact is larger as organic matter or soil moisture increase. These results can be helpful in assessing permafrost carbon mitigation with climate change. Plain Language Summary: Permafrost can contain high amounts of organic matter and ground ice, and peat plays an important role in permafrost degradation. Permafrost degrades due to climate warming, which can lead to the release of carbon in the form of greenhouse gases, exacerbating the degradation of permafrost. Additionally, soil moisture also significantly impacts permafrost degradation. However, few studies have estimated the effects of organic matter and soil moisture on permafrost degradation. This paper therefore explores the quantitative effect of organic matter and soil moisture on permafrost through a series of model sensitivity experiments. We find that organic matter and soil moisture both insulate permafrost, cooling it in summer and warming it in winter. These results are important for mitigating the effects of climate change on permafrost and carbon feedbacks. Key Points: The insulating effect of organic matter and soil moisture on permafrost is quantified using model sensitivity experimentsIncreasing organic matter and soil moisture both cool permafrost in summer and warm it in winterThese organic matter and soil moisture feedbacks refine our understanding of permafrost dynamics under climate change [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Areal changes in alpine lakes on the Tibetan Plateau (TP) are reliable indicators of climate change and anthropogenic disturbance. This study used long-term Landsat images and meteorological records to monitor the temporal evolution patterns of lakes within the Changtang National Nature Reserve between 1972 and 2021 and examine the climatic and anthropogenic impacts on lake area changes. The results revealed that the area of Lake LongmuCo and Lake Jiezechaqia significantly expanded by 12.81% and 12.88% from 1972 to 2021, respectively. After 1999, Lake LongmuCo and Lake Jiezechaqia entered into a period of rapid expansion. During 1972–2021, the annual mean temperature significantly increased at a rate of 0.05 °C/a, while the change in annual precipitation was not significant. The temperature change was a major contributor to the observed changes of Lake LongmuCo and Lake Jiezechaqia between 1972 and 2021, while human intervention also played a vital role during 2013–2021. The glaciers around these two lakes decreased by 21.81%, and the increase in water supply from warming-triggered glacier melting was a reason of expansion of Lake LongmuCo and Lake Jiezechaqia. The areas of the two artificial salt lakes affiliated with Lake LongmuCo and Lake Jiezechaqia were 0.24 km2 and 2.67 km2 in 2013 and rose to 0.51 km2 and 9.80 km2 in 2021, respectively. In particular, the continuous exploitations of salt lakes to extract lithium resources have retarded the rate of expansion of Lake LongmuCo and Lake Jiezechaqia. The dams constructed by industrial enterprises have blocked the expansion of Lake LongmuCo to the south. This paper sheds new light on the influences of recent human intervention and climatic variation on alpine lakes within the TP. Due to the importance of alpine lakes in the TP, we need more comprehensive and in-depth efforts to protect the lake ecosystems within the national nature reserves. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The unique characteristics of land–air coupling and troposphere–stratosphere interaction over the Tibetan Plateau (TP), the highest landform in the world, play a vital role in weather and climate on regional and global scales. Although a great deal of research has been carried out, large gaps remain in our understanding of TP land–air coupling and its climate effects, due to a lack of observations and the issue of model biases. To address these obstacles, a 10-yr national research program entitled "Changes in the Land–Air Coupled System over the Tibetan Plateau and its Impacts on Global Climate (LASTPIC)" was launched by the National Natural Science Foundation of China in January 2014. What LASTPIC does revolves around three aspects: TP land–air coupled processes; TP's influence on global climate; and reanalysis and model. This paper mainly focuses on the data collection, scientific understanding, and model development of LASTPIC in terms of TP land–atmosphere–ocean coupling and its global climate impacts since program's inception. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Soil respiration is the primary efflux of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the terrestrial ecosystem. The soil of alpine grassland on the Tibetan Plateau (TP) is rich in soil organic matter, which may release more carbon dioxide as the climate warming. However, due to the limited observations here, there are still deficiencies in understanding the response of soil respiration to climate change, especially the difference between permafrost and non‐permafrost regions. In this paper, we investigate the climatology and trend of soil respiration on the TP from 1979 to 2018, using the Community Land Model version 4.5 (CLM4.5) forced by a suite of high‐resolution atmosphere dataset. Evaluation results show that the land surface model could properly reproduce permafrost extent, and capture the spatial pattern of soil temperature, soil moisture, leaf area index (LAI), and soil respiration. For the whole TP, we find that the spatial pattern for both climatology and trends of soil respiration are correlated with LAI significantly and positively. In addition to the effects of vegetation, precipitation was more correlated with soil respiration than temperature among climatic variables in recent decades. For permafrost and non‐permafrost regions, climate change affects soil respiration in different ways. In permafrost areas, precipitation plays a more important role than temperature. Conversely, in non‐permafrost regions, temperature has a more pronounced effect on soil respiration. The results of this study provide valuable information for predicting greenhouse gas emissions and understanding the carbon cycle on the TP. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

LST (Land Surface Temperature) is a significant parameter that represents the ground energy balance and plays a crucial role in understanding climate change. The LST of the Tibetan Plateau (TP) has a direct influence on the climate and environmental changes of the TP, and it also has a significant impact on global climate and atmospheric circulation. Although there are various factors that drive the spatial and temporal distribution of LST on the TP, the primary driving forces and its seasonal variations of LST are not yet well understood. The research focuses specifically on the TP region, selecting three types of LST data, using geodetector model, to analyze the driving factors affecting the spatial pattern of LST in different seasons. The results indicate that the three factors, Air Temperature (AT), Elevation (Ele), and Permafrost Thermal Stability (PTS), have a significant influence on LST throughout all seasons, whereas other variables demonstrate varying contributions to LST depending on the season. This study contributes to the understanding of the spatial variability of surface thermal conditions and the intricate relationships between their driving factors. It also emphasizes the potential changes in these relationships throughout the year. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Alpine glaciers are vulnerable to climate changes, and their recession due to warming has already induced a large number of geohazards closely related to the glacial motion, such as debris flow. Strong coupling of the geology, geomorphology, climate, and glacial action controls the type, size, development, and frequency of debris flow along the Parlung Zangbo River, Southeastern (SE) Tibetan Plateau. Field investigation in recent years indicates that the north bank is prone to much more frequenter debris flows than the south bank. The sharp contrast between the two river banks is due to the different formation conditions of debris flows, especially glaciers and geomorphology. The present paper examines the differences in the glacier and geomorphology conditions for glacier-related debris flows to occur, through a combination of field investigation, interviews with local residents, and geomorphological parameter, and glacier distribution analysis in the ArcGIS platform. The result indicates that, compared to the south bank of the Parlung River, the north bank has more favorable conditions in the glacier and geomorphology south, which is more conducive to the occurrence of debris flow. In conclusion, three kinds of mechanisms due to different formation conditions, especially glacier and geomorphology, are analyzed. The glacier-related debris flows on the south and north banks occur through different mechanisms due to different formation conditions. The debris flows on the north bank primarily occur in modes I and III, while the south bank is dominated by modes II and III debris flows. Based on the result, effective measures are proposed for mitigating damage to roads and railways within this area. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Snow plays an important role in the water cycle and global climate change, and the accurate monitoring of changes in snow depth is an important task. However, monitoring snow properties is still challenging and unclear, particularly in the Tibetan Plateau, which has rough land and uneven terrain. The traditional monitoring methods have some limitations in monitoring snow depth changes, and the Global Navigation Satellite System-Reflectometry (GNSS-R) provides a new opportunity for snow monitoring. This paper employed data from the Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System (CYGNSS) to discover the effect of snow properties. Firstly, the observations of CYGNSS were used to find the sensitive to snow properties, and the relationships between signal to noise ratio (SNR), leading edge slope (LES), surface reflectivity (SR), and snow depth were studied and analyzed, respectively. It is found that the correlation between the first two parameters and snow depth is poor, while SR can indicate the changes in snow depth, and is proposed as an indicator of SR change, namely, surface reflectivity–difference ratio factor (SR–DR factor). Furthermore, the long-time series data in the Tibetan Plateau (2018–2019) are used to analyze its effects on the time series of the SR–DR factor, while the influences of the soil freeze/thaw (F/T) process and soil moisture are excluded during the analysis. The results indicate that the SR–DR factor can be a good indicator and discriminator for snow depth. Our work shows that space-borne GNSS-R has the potential for the monitoring of snow properties. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, three parameterization schemes, one considering gravel influence (test1), one considering organic carbon influence (test2), and one comprehensively considering gravel and organic carbon influence (test3), were set up to modify different typical underlying surfaces of the Tibetan Plateau (TP). In addition, their soil thermal properties and hydraulic property variations were discussed. Additionally, discussing the key thermal and hydraulic parameters affected the performance of different schemes from the perspective of observation data in the TP to improve the simulation ability of soil temperature and soil moisture in the plateau areas. Compared the original Community Land Model (CLM) scheme, test1 resulted in higher soil temperature and lower soil moisture, while test2 had lower soil temperature and higher soil moisture. The key thermal and hydraulic parameters are the changes in the saturated thermal conductivity and the thermal conductivity of dry soil and the variations of the porosity and exponent B, respectively. The test3 scheme was the same as test2 for the modified changes of thermal properties, except that the proportion of change was slightly different. In terms of soil thermal properties, test2 and test3 were better at 0–20 cm depth, while test1 and test3 were better for the deeper (40 cm) simulation. Regarding hydraulic properties, the test1 and test3 schemes performed better on the Gobi and alpine meadows at 20–40 cm depth, while the original CLM scheme and test2 performed better on the underlying grassland surface. Test3 was better at balancing the relationship between the thermal and hydraulic parameters and could be used for the further research on the entire plateau area. Key Points: According to the observation data, the CLM5.0 thermal and hydrological parameterization schemes are modified in this paperThe new scheme is better at balancing the relationship between the thermal and hydraulic parametersThe modified CLM5.0 improves the ability to simulate soil temperature and moisture on the plateau [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Over the past 50 years, temperatures on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP) have risen roughly twice as fast as the global average, making it the most unpredictable region of environmental change due to global warming. In this paper, an Environmental Area Index model was developed using data from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project to assess the ecological risk faced by QTP ecosystems under the influence of climate factors. The results show that ecological risk gradually decreases from northwest to the southeast, and there are different trends in ecological risk for each class in areas with different elevation gradients. As elevation increased, the proportion of potential risk areas gradually decreased, and the proportion of high- and higher-risk areas gradually increased. We predict that in the period 2021–2100, the overall ecological risk change trend on the QTP will not be obvious, but there will be a more obvious change on the vertical gradient. In general, under the existing global climate change scenario, the ecological risk faced by the QTP show a decreasing trend under the influence of climate factors, and the decrease in ecological risks is much higher at higher elevations than at lower elevations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The westerly jet (WJ) is an important component of atmospheric circulation, which is characterized by prominent seasonal variations in intensity and position. However, the response of the WJ over Asia during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) is still not clear. Using general circulation model experiments, the seasonal behaviors of the WJ over central Asia and Japan are analyzed in this paper. The results show that, compared to the present day (PD), the WJ presents a complicated response during the LGM, both in intensity and position. Over central Asia, it becomes weaker in both summer and winter. But over Japan, it is enhanced in summer but becomes diminished in winter. In terms of position, the WJ over central Asia shifts southward in both summer and winter, whereas the WJ over Japan moves southward in summer but does not change obviously relative to PD in winter. Such WJ changes are well explained by meridional temperature gradients in high troposphere, which is closely linked to seasonal thermal anomalies over the Tibetan Plateau (TP). Despite cooler LGM conditions, the anomalous warming center over the TP becomes stronger in summer. Derived from the heat budget equation, the stronger heating center is mainly caused by the weaker adiabatic cooling generated from ascending motion over the area south of the TP. In winter, the cooling over the TP is also strengthened, mostly owing to the subsidence-induced weaker adiabatic heating. Due to the importance of the WJ, the potential role of TP thermal effects should be a focus when explaining the East Asian climate change during the LGM. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many studies have emphasized the importance of community-based natural resource management institutions in adapting to climate change and responding to the global shift towards individualized land tenure regimes. However, few have reported on the innovative institutions developed by some rural communities to rebuild community cooperation and rural adaptive capacity. This paper draws on four comparative cases from the Tibetan Plateau to assess how locally developed community cooperative institutions mediate herders' access to markets and resources to foster adaptive capacity and adaptation in response to snow-related catastrophes. Results demonstrate that community cooperative institutions are more effective in improving adaptive capacity than the market-based adaptation strategies that are the predetermined outcome of individualized tenure regimes. When such cooperative institutions exist, community members are able to apply both household and community collective adaptation strategies, resulting in better livelihood outcomes. Community cooperative institutions effectively address individual needs and priorities by clarifying entitlements and market-based networks. They rebuild community collective action and cooperative business entities that improve herders' ability to access resources and markets more equally by distributing benefits to all community members. This study concludes that following the establishment of individualized land tenure regimes, rebuilding community cooperation necessitates hybridization of property rights arrangements, reformed institutions, and social networks operating across levels of governance to facilitate interdependent interactions between collective and individual adaptation strategies. Such community cooperation offers new opportunities for improving adaptive capacity in pastoral regions and elsewhere. Market-based institutions and adaptation strategies are significant components of climate adaptation policies in pastoral and agricultural regions, though they face equity and collective action-building challenges. Adaptative capacity should be understood as a function of cross-level interactions among individuals, community organizations, and external stakeholders. These cases of community cooperative institutions offer new insights into coordinating the interactions between individual-level and community-level adaptation practices. Community-based natural resource management (CBNRM) institutions can restore collective management of natural resources and stimulate formal economic cooperation to build bridging networks with other stakeholders; this generates opportunities for all community members to more broadly access resources and markets to improve adaptive capacity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Tibetan Plateau is situated in one of Earth's extreme continental climate settings and is influenced by numerous climatic regimes such as the East Asian and Indian monsoons and westerlies. It is the largest region of the world where permafrost is present at mid-latitudes and its relative warmth and shallow thickness makes it more sensitive to climatic warming than the arctic region. Changes in permafrost temperature, extent and active layer thickness have been observed for decades. In this paper we review these changes in this dynamic permafrost region, especially noting the changes in permafrost distribution and area loss of about 99,000 km2 per decade, increases in active layer thickness of 4-8 cm/year, and increases in thawing days of about 10-16 days/decade. As soil temperature and soil water content have changed, river run-off has decreased over most of the year. Warmer temperatures may have transformed the Tibetan Plateau from a net carbon source in the 20th century to a net sink as the increase rate of net primary production is faster than that of soil respiration. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

South Asian air pollutants exert substantial effect on the climate and environment change over the Tibetan Plateau (TP). This paper investigates the trans-boundary transport of PM 10 , PM 2.5 , and O 3 from South Asia to the TP via WRF-Chem sensitive analysis. It is found that PM 10 , PM 2.5 , and O 3 over South Asia are mainly sourced from anthropogenic sources. South Asian emissions contribute up to 54% of PM 10 (PM 2.5) in the TP in the pre-monsoon season. For O 3 , the highest contribution of 18.13% is in the monsoon season, while the lowest contribution of 8.67% is in the winter season. To evaluate the respective contributions of anthropogenic and biomass burning emissions in South Asia to PM 10 , PM 2.5 , and O 3 in the TP, anthropogenic and biomass burning emissions in South Asia are considered separately. The results show that the largest percentage contribution of PM 10 (PM 2.5) from South Asian anthropogenic emissions to PM 10 (PM 2.5) in the TP with value of 35.86% (37.77%) occurs in winter, while the lowest percentage contribution of 16.52% (16.77%) appears in the monsoon season. For O 3 , the largest contribution of 17.74% from South Asian anthropogenic emissions appears in the monsoon season, whereas the lowest contribution of 8.59% occurs in winter. Compared to the anthropogenic emissions, the biomass burning emissions in South Asia have a relative less contribution to PM 10 , PM 2.5 , and O 3 in the TP. The largest contribution of PM 10 (PM 2.5) from South Asian biomass burning emissions to PM 10 (PM 2.5) in the TP is 20.04% (18.37%) in the pre-monsoon season. Conversely, the lowest contribution of 0.58% (0.53) appears in the monsoon season. O 3 from South Asian biomass burning emissions contributes <1% to O 3 in the TP in each season, implying that the biomass burning emissions in South Asia have little effect on O 3 in the TP. This study is of great significance to the ecological environment protection for the TP. • Contributions of South Asian emissions to PM 10 , PM 2.5 , and O 3 in the TP are quantified. • Anthropogenic emissions in South Asia have a larger contribution to PM 10 , PM 2.5 , and O 3 in the TP. • O 3 from South Asian biomass burning emissions contributes <1% to O 3 in the Tibetan Plateau. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The collapse of glacial, permafrost, and ice-rich moraine slopes in high-altitude mountainous areas not only threatens downstream residents and infrastructure but also displaces ice mass to lower and warmer elevations, accelerating glacial ablation to some extent. Despite being considered rare, ice-rich slopes collapse more frequently than commonly thought due to climate change. For example, two adjacent mountain glaciers in the Aru Range of the Tibetan Plateau, characterized by large volumes (68 × 106 m3 and 83 × 106 m3, respectively) and low surface slope angles (12.3° and 12.9°, respectively), collapsed surprisingly in 2016. While the mechanisms behind these collapses have garnered broad attention, the ability to quantitatively assess the instability of ice-rich slopes remains limited due to the complex interplay of multi-physical processes. Taking the Aru glacier collapses as reference cases, this paper presents a conceptual model, implemented through coupled thermo-hydro-mechanical simulation, to evaluate the stability of high-altitude ice-rich slopes due to climate change, rainfall and ice ablation. Results indicate that the methodology captures the effects of temperature change, rainfall and meltwater on the instability events well, demonstrating promising potential in evaluating potential collapse zones of ice-rich slopes similar to the Aru glaciers. Furthermore, the role of climate change in the well-known Aru events is demonstrated using a state-of-the-art global climate reanalysis dataset. Findings reveal that the increase in liquid water infiltrating the Aru glaciers since 2010 was a critical factor leading to the instability events. • A conceptual model is proposed to analyse the stability and collapse zones of ice-rich slopes. • The modelling elucidates the causes of twin collapses of the Aru glaciers. • Results contribute to ice-rich slope instability prediction and associated disaster risk management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Extreme heatwaves pose a significant threat to a wide range of environmental, ecological, and social systems. The rapid warming of the Arctic and the Tibetan Plateau (TP), which are the most prominent features in the Northern Hemisphere in the context of climate change, has significantly influenced mid-latitude extreme events in recent decades. This study utilizes observational data and numerical simulations to demonstrate that the variations in Arctic amplification (AA) and TP amplification (TA) play a crucial role in the interannual variability of summer heatwaves (HWs) in the Yangtze River Basin (YRB) (HWs_YRB) region. The HWs_YRB is associated with a zonally oriented barotropic high-pressure system anchored over the YRB region. The spatial distribution and intensity of the HWs_YRB are impacted by the synergistic effects of AA and TA, via a meridional atmospheric tripole pattern and double jets over East Asia. Furthermore, AA primarily impacts the geographical extent of the HWs_YRB, while TA plays a critical role in determining the intensity of the HWs_YRB. Our findings provide an innovative perspective on the linkage between the pronounced warming observed in the Arctic and TP and the occurrence of summer HWs_YRB, enhancing our comprehension of the climatic consequences of the rapid changes in these two geographical regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Alpine grassland is one of the most fragile and sensitive ecosystems, and it serves as a crucial ecological security barrier on the Tibetan Plateau. Due to the combined influence of climate change and human activities, the degradation of the alpine grassland in Gannan Prefecture has been increasing recent years, causing increases in ecological risk (ER) and leading to the grassland ecosystem facing unprecedented challenges. In this context, it is particularly crucial to construct a potential grassland damage index (PGDI) and assessment framework that can be used to effectively characterize the damage and risk to the alpine grassland ecosystem. This study comprehensively uses multi-source data to construct a PGDI based on the grassland resilience index, landscape ER index, and grass–livestock balance index. Thereafter, we proposed a feasible framework for assessing the comprehensive ER of alpine grassland and analyzed the responsive relationship between the comprehensive ER and comprehensive ecosystem services (ESs) of the grassland. There are four findings. The first is that the comprehensive ER of the alpine grassland in Gannan Prefecture from 2000–2020 had a low distribution in the southeast and a high distribution trend in the northwest, with medium risk (29.27%) and lower risk (27.62%) dominating. The high-risk area accounted for 4.58% and was mainly in Lintan County, the border between Diebu and Zhuoni Counties, the eastern part of Xiahe County, and the southwest part of Hezuo. Second, the comprehensive ESs showed a pattern of low distribution in the northwest and high distribution in the southeast. The low and lower services accounted for only 9.30% of the studied area and were mainly distributed in the west of Maqu County and central Lintan County. Third, the Moran's index values for comprehensive ESs and ER for 2000, 2005, 2010, 2015, and 2020 were −0.246, −0.429, −0.348, −0.320, and −0.285, respectively, thereby indicating significant negative spatial autocorrelation for all aspects. Fourth, ER was caused by the combined action of multiple factors. There are significant differences in the driving factors that affect ER. Landscape index is the first dominant factor affecting ER, with q values greater than 0.25, followed by DEM and NDVI. In addition, the interaction between diversity index and NDVI had the greatest impact on ER. Overall, this study offers a new methodological framework for the quantification of comprehensive ER in alpine grasslands. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The climate of the Tibetan Plateau (TP) has experienced substantial changes in recent decades as a result of the location's susceptibility to global climate change. The changes observed across the TP are closely associated with regional land–atmosphere interactions. Current models and satellites struggle to accurately depict the interactions; therefore, critical field observations on land–atmosphere interactions outlined here provide necessary independent validation data and fine-scale process insights for constraining reanalysis products, remote sensing retrievals, and land surface model parameterizations. Scientific data sharing is crucial for the TP since in situ observations are rarely available under these harsh conditions. However, field observations are currently dispersed among individuals or groups and have not yet been integrated for comprehensive analysis. This has prevented a better understanding of the interactions, the unprecedented changes they generate, and the substantial ecological and environmental consequences they bring about. In this study, we collaborated with different agencies and organizations to present a comprehensive dataset for hourly measurements of surface energy balance components, soil hydrothermal properties, and near-surface micrometeorological conditions spanning up to 17 years (2005–2021). This dataset, derived from 12 field stations covering a variety of typical TP landscapes, provides the most extensive in situ observation data available for studying land–atmosphere interactions on the TP to date in terms of both spatial coverage and duration. Three categories of observations are provided in this dataset: meteorological gradient data (met), soil hydrothermal data (soil), and turbulent flux data (flux). To assure data quality, a set of rigorous data-processing and quality control procedures are implemented for all observation elements (e.g., wind speed and direction at different height) in this dataset. The operational workflow and procedures are individually tailored to the varied types of elements at each station, including automated error screening, manual inspection, diagnostic checking, adjustments, and quality flagging. The hourly raw data series; the quality-assured data; and supplementary information, including data integrity and the percentage of correct data on a monthly scale, are provided via the National Tibetan Plateau Data Center (10.11888/Atmos.tpdc.300977, Ma et al., 2023a). With the greatest number of stations covered, the fullest collection of meteorological elements, and the longest duration of observations and recordings to date, this dataset is the most extensive hourly land–atmosphere interaction observation dataset for the TP. It will serve as the benchmark for evaluating and refining land surface models, reanalysis products, and remote sensing retrievals, as well as for characterizing fine-scale land–atmosphere interaction processes of the TP and underlying influence mechanisms. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As a feature of global warming, climate change has been a severe issue in the 21st century. A more comprehensive reconstruction is necessary in the climate assessment process, considering the heterogeneity of climate change scenarios across various meteorological elements and seasons. To better comprehend the change in minimum temperature in winter in the Jinsha River Basin (China), we built a standard tree-ring chronology from Picea likiangensis var. balfouri and reconstructed the regional mean minimum temperature of the winter half-years from 1606 to 2016. This reconstruction provides a comprehensive overview of the changes in winter temperature over multiple centuries. During the last 411 years, the regional climate has undergone seven warm periods and six cold periods. The reconstructed temperature sensitively captures the climate warming that emerged at the end of the 20th century. Surprisingly, during 1650–1750, the lowest winter temperature within the research area was about 0.44 °C higher than that in the 20th century, which differs significantly from the concept of the "cooler" Little Ice Age during this period. This result is validated by the temperature results reconstructed from other tree-ring data from nearby areas, confirming the credibility of the reconstruction. The Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition method (EEMD) was adopted to decompose the reconstructed sequence into oscillations of different frequency domains. The decomposition results indicate that the temperature variations in this region exhibit significant periodic changes with quasi-3a, quasi-7a, 15.5-16.8a, 29.4-32.9a, and quasi-82a cycles. Factors like El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and solar activity, along with Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), may be important driving forces. To reconstruct this climate, this study integrates the results of three machine learning algorithms and traditional linear regression methods. This novel reconstruction method can provide valuable insights for related research endeavors. Furthermore, other global climate change scenarios can be explored through additional proxy reconstructions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Tibetan Plateau (TP) is a climate-sensitive and ecologically fragile area. Studying drought and its effects on vegetation over the TP is of great significance for ecological conservation. However, there were large uncertainties in previous studies on the drought characteristics and their impacts on alpine vegetation in this region. This study explored the drought changes and their impacts on alpine vegetation during the growing season over the TP in 1982–2018. The results showed that the TP has experienced a wetting trend in most regions of the TP. Correspondingly, the vegetation has become greener in most areas. The wetting and drying trend in the growing season changed around 1995. Before 1995, the TP experienced an overall drying trend with a spatial pattern of a drying trend in the northern regions and a wetting trend in the southern regions, while it showed an overall wetting trend after 1995, with a reversed spatial pattern to that before 1995. After 1995, wetting and drying trends affected the vegetation in 61% of the TP. However, before 1995, the NDVI presented an increasing trend in most areas of the TP under a drying trend. Therefore, a drying trend was not the primary factor affecting vegetation growth in this period. Instead, changes in the cryosphere induced by warming could be the main factor. In addition, the distribution of vegetation across the TP was primarily influenced by drought intensity, which had the greatest impact on sparse vegetation, followed by meadow and grassland. This study enhances our understanding of the impact of drought changes on alpine vegetation on the TP. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The variations in snow cover on the Tibetan Plateau play a pivotal role in comprehending climate change patterns and governing hydrological processes within the region. This study leverages daily snow cover data and the NASA Digital Elevation Model (DEM) from 2003 to 2020 to analyze spatiotemporal snow cover days and assess their responsiveness to climatic shifts by integrating meteorological data. The results reveal significant spatial heterogeneity in snow cover across the Plateau, with a slight decreasing trend in annual average snow cover duration. Snow cover is predominantly observed during the spring and winter seasons, constituting approximately 32% of the total snow cover days annually. The onset and cessation of snow cover occur within a range of 120–220 days. Additionally, an increasing trend in snow cover duration below 5000 m altitude was observed, in addition to a decreasing trend above 5000 m altitude. Sub-basin analysis delineates the Tarim River Basin as exhibiting the lengthiest average annual snow cover duration of 83 days, while the Yellow River Basin records the shortest duration of 31 days. The decreasing trend in snow cover duration closely aligns with climate warming trends, characterized by a warming rate of 0.17 ± 0.54 °C per decade, coupled with a concurrent increase in precipitation at a rate of 3.09 ± 3.81 mm per year. Temperature exerts a more pronounced influence on annual snow cover duration variation compared to precipitation, as evidenced by a strong negative correlation (CC = −0.67). This study significantly augments the comprehension of hydrological cycle dynamics on the Tibetan Plateau, furnishing essential insights for informed decision-making in water resource management and ecological conservation efforts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Net Primary Productivity (NPP) of the Tibetan Plateau (TP) has undergone significant changes since the 1980s. The investigation of the spatiotemporal changes of NPP and its driving factors is of significant importance. Here, we analyze the spatial and temporal trends of Net Primary Production (NPP) and the effects of meteorological factors on the NPP change on the Tibetan Plateau (TP) using version 5.0 of the Community Land Model. The results showed that the average NPP was 256 (g C·m2·yr−1) over the past 40 years, with a continuously increasing trend of 2.38 (g C·m2·yr−1). Precipitation was the main factor affecting NPP changes, temperature had no significant effect on NPP changes, while radiation showed a negative trend. Changes in precipitation, temperature and radiation account for approximately 91%, 5.3%, and 3.8% of NPP variation, respectively. Based on grass coverage, we categorized alpine grasslands into three types: high, medium, and low coverage. Our findings indicate the NPP change of the high-coverage grasslands was mainly affected by precipitation, and then the temperature and radiation. Comparatively, the precipitation change is the driving factor of the increased NPP of low-coverage grasslands, but the temperature increase is the negative factor. Our studies have implications for assessing and predicting vegetation responses to future climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The alpine grassland ecosystem accounts for 53% of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP) area, which is an important ecological protection barrier, but fragile and highly vulnerable to climate change. Therefore, continuous monitoring of the aboveground biomass (AGB) of grassland is necessary. Although many studies have mapped the spatial distribution of AGB over the QTP, the results vary widely due to the limited ground samples and mismatches with satellite pixel scales. This paper proposed a new algorithm using unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) as a bridge to re-estimate the grassland AGB over 20 the QTP from 2000 to 2019. The innovations were as follows: 1) In the aspect of ground data collection, the spatial scale matching among the traditional ground quadrat sampling, UAV photos, and MODIS pixels was fully considered. From 2015 to 2019, 906 pairs of ground-UAV sample data at the quadrat scale and 2,602 sets of UAV data matching the MODIS pixel scale were collected. A total of more than 37,000 UAV photos were captured at the height of 20 meters. Therefore, the ground validation samples was sufficient and scale matched. 2) In terms of model construction, the traditional quadrat scale 25 (0.25m2) was successfully upscaled to the MODIS pixel scale (6,2500 m2) based on the random forest method and stepwise upscaling scheme. Compared with previous studies, the scale matching of independent and dependent variables was realized, effectively reducing the impact of scale mismatch. At the pixel scale, the AGB value estimated by UAV had a more linear correlation with the MODIS vegetation indices than the traditional sampling method. The multi-year independent crossvalidation results showed that the constructed pixel scale AGB estimation had good robustness, with an average R2 of 0.83 30 and RMSE of 34.13 g/m2. Our dataset provides an important input parameter for a comprehensive understanding of the QTP in the process of global climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Lacustrine fossil pollen records have been widely used to reconstruct palaeovegetation and palaeoclimate changes on the Tibetan Plateau (TP). However, little is known about the vegetation representation of modern lacustrine pollen assemblages there. This paper presents the results of modern pollen investigation on 63 surface sediments from the lake basin and 37 topsoil samples from the drainage area of a large lake, Nam Co, located in the central TP. It aims to assess quantitatively the influences on lacustrine pollen assemblages of the pollen sources and sedimentary processes, and to establish vegetation representations for modern lacustrine pollen assemblages. Modern pollen assemblages from topsoils of different vegetation had diagnostic features in terms of their composition and pollen percentage. The spatial variabilities and results of principal component analysis suggested that lacustrine pollen assemblages were influenced by both the regional/local source vegetation and sedimentary processes. The lacustrine pollen assemblages were mainly homogeneous due to in-lake sedimentary processes (mixing and redistribution). An accumulation zone for lacustrine pollen assemblages was found in the deep lake basin (depth > 60 m) due to sediment focusing. The results of boosted regression tree analysis further confirmed that source vegetation was the predominant factor (85.8%) responsible for the vegetation representation of lacustrine pollen assemblages, while sedimentary processes accounted for only 14.2%. The results of discriminant analysis indicated that most lacustrine pollen assemblages (90.5%) were representative for the regional vegetation of alpine steppe in the Nam Co catchment and central TP, while only 9.5% were representative for the local meadow vegetation. Therefore, it is recommended that lacustrine pollen assemblages from deep lake basin of accumulation zone in large lakes of the TP can be used to retrieve efficiently the signals from regional vegetation and climate changes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Highlights • We divided the households in the YNL river region into three types. • We identified the determinants affecting the livelihood choice of sample households. • We made some policy recommendations to help the local people get rid of poverty. Abstract Governmental policies that can develop advantageous endogenous livelihood transition are of great importance for anti-poverty. However, the existing research finds that in the Tibetan Plateau, there is a certain contradiction between the poverty alleviation policies and the local farmers' needs, and thus the effect of these policies will be weakened and the goal of poverty alleviation be missed. It is therefore imperative to identify and analyze the factors influencing the livelihood choice so that policy makers and development practitioners can design policies that will tackle the poverty afflicting the majority of the local people. This paper provides a new method for anti-poverty policymaking and conducts a case study to enrich the safety net/cargo net paradigms. In this paper, household data in the YNL river region are used and a two-step clustering method is developed to classify these households into three types: hanging in (type I), stepping up (type II) and stepping out (type III). Then a multinomial logit model is adopted to identify determinants of households' livelihood choice. The results indicate that drought poses a significant negative impact on farmers' choice of type II, while household size, educational level of labor and medical expenditure have a significant positive impact on the choice of type II; spring frost, proportion of skilled training, borrowed money and the ratio of agricultural equipment have a significant positive impact on their choice of type III. Some anti-poverty policy implications are put forward in the last on the basis of these determinants. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates the sensitivity of projected future climate changes over China to the horizontal resolution of a regional climate model RegCM4.4 (RegCM), using RCP8.5 as an example. Model validation shows that RegCM performs better in reproducing the spatial distribution and magnitude of present-day temperature, precipitation and climate extremes than the driving global climate model HadGEM2-ES (HadGEM, at 1.875° × 1.25° degree resolution), but little difference is found between the simulations at 50 and 25 km resolutions. Comparison with observational data at different resolutions confirmed the added value of the RCM and finer model resolutions in better capturing the probability distribution of precipitation. However, HadGEM and RegCM at both resolutions project a similar pattern of significant future warming during both winter and summer, and a similar pattern of winter precipitation changes including dominant increase in most areas of northern China and little change or decrease in the southern part. Projected precipitation changes in summer diverge among the three models, especially over eastern China, with a general increase in HadGEM, little change in RegCM at 50 km, and a mix of increase and decrease in RegCM at 25 km resolution. Changes of temperature-related extremes (annual total number of daily maximum temperature > 25 °C, the maximum value of daily maximum temperature, the minimum value of daily minimum temperature in the three simulations especially in the two RegCM simulations are very similar to each other; so are the precipitation-related extremes (maximum consecutive dry days, maximum consecutive 5-day precipitation and extremely wet days’ total amount). Overall, results from this study indicate a very low sensitivity of projected changes in this region to model resolution. While fine resolution is critical for capturing the spatial variability of the control climate, it may not be as important for capturing the climate response to homogeneous forcing (in this case greenhouse gas concentration changes). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global climate change has significantly affected vegetation variation in the third-polar region of the world - the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. As one of the most important indicators of vegetation variation (growth, coverage and tempo-spatial change), the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) is widely employed to study the response of vegetation to climate change. However, a long-term series analysis cannot be achieved because a single data source is constrained by time sequence. Therefore, a new framework was presented in this paper to extend the product series of monthly NDVI, taking as an example the Yarlung Zangbo River Basin, one of the most important river basins in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. NDVI products were acquired from two public sources: Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies (GIMMS) Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) and Moderate-Resolution Imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS). After having been extended using the new framework, the new time series of NDVI covers a 384 months period (1982-2013), 84 months longer than previous time series of NDVI product, greatly facilitating NDVI related scientific research. In the new framework, the Gauss Filtering Method was employed to filter out noise in the NDVI product. Next, the standard method was introduced to enhance the comparability of the two data sources, and a pixelbased regression method was used to construct NDVI-extending models with one pixel after another. The extended series of NDVI fit well with original AVHRR-NDVI. With the extended time-series, temporal trends and spatial heterogeneity of NDVI in the study area were studied. Principal influencing factors on NDVI were further determined. The monthly NDVI is highly correlated with air temperature and precipitation in terms of climatic change wherein the spatially averaged NDVI slightly increases in the summer and has increased in temperature and decreased in precipitation in the 32 years period. The spatial heterogeneity of NDVI is in accordance with the seasonal variation of the two climate-change factors. All of these findings can provide valuable scientific support for water-land resources exploration in the third-polar region of the world. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The ground ice content in permafrost serves as one of the dominant properties of permafrost for the study of global climate change, ecology, hydrology and engineering construction in cold regions. This paper initially attempts to assess the ground ice volume in permafrost layers on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau by considering landform types, the corresponding lithological composition, and the measured water content in various regions. An approximation demonstrating the existence of many similarities in lithological composition and water content within a unified landform was established during the calculations. Considerable knowledge of the case study area, here called the Source Area of the Yellow (Huanghe) River (SAYR) in the northeastern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, has been accumulated related to permafrost and fresh water resources during the past 40 years. Considering the permafrost distribution, extent, spatial distribution of landform types, the ground ice volume at the depths of 3.0-10.0 m below the ground surface was estimated based on the data of 101 boreholes from field observations and geological surveys in different types of landforms in the permafrost region of the SAYR. The total ground ice volume in permafrost layers at the depths of 3.0-10.0 m was approximately (51.68 ± 18.81) km3, and the ground ice volume per unit volume was (0.31 ± 0.11) m3/m3. In the horizontal direction, the ground ice content was higher in the landforms of lacustrine-marshland plains and alluvial-lacustrine plains, and the lower ground ice content was distributed in the erosional platforms and alluvial-proluvial plains. In the vertical direction, the volume of ground ice was relatively high in the top layers (especially near the permafrost table) and at the depths of 7.0-8.0 m. This calculation method will be used in the other areas when the necessary information is available, including landform type, borehole data, and measured water content. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• A proxy based on mass movements for assessing climate change was proposed. • The periodicity of mass movements conforms to the changing patterns of traditional climate proxies. • Climate change determines the spatial and temporal distribution of mass movements. The spatial and temporal distribution, as well as the formation and evolution of mass movements in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau orogenic belt, have been extensively discussed. We gathered research papers focusing on the ages of Quaternary residual deposits associated with mass movements in the surrounding orogenic belts of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. A total of 172 large-scale typical deposits and their ages were analyzed to explore the primary driving mechanisms behind mass movements in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. As these deposits were collected from diverse geological environments and the ages primarily concentrated in the Late Pleistocene and Holocene periods, we categorized mass movements with ages younger than 140 ka into three distinct regional climate systems: the Indian Summer Monsoon, the East Asian Summer Monsoon, and the Westerlies. The relationship between the emergence of mass movements and climate change was thoroughly investigated. Our research indicates that mass movements can serve as a reliable proxy for indicating climate change. The cycles of mass movements are closely synchronized with the warm and cold alternations of regional climates, holding significant importance in reshaping the environmental evolutionary history. We propose that the extensive mass movements in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau are primarily driven by periodic climate variations, although they may not exhibit a perfect one-to-one correspondence. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The distribution pattern of arid–humid climate in the modern northwest–southeast confrontation in Asia evolved from the zonal distribution pattern of the Paleogene. However, this evolutionary process remains poorly constrained by geological evidence. In this paper, we analyze the characteristics of sporopollen assemblages recorded in Late Eocene strata of the Jianchuan Basin in southwest China. We show that vegetation patterns exhibited a remarkable shift from tropical–subtropical sparse forest to subtropical–temperate mixed broad-leaved–coniferous forest at ∼40.6 Ma; this shift is further indicated by the rapid decrease in drought-tolerant plants, mostly Ephedra and Chenopodiaceae, evidence that the previous hot–dry climate was replaced by a warm–humid climate at this time. This evidence suggests that the Asian monsoon began to affect the study area at ∼40.6 Ma. We then comprehensively integrated sporopollen results from several basins across East Asia, revealing that the frontal edge of the humid monsoon climate moved intermittently to the northwest after the Late Eocene, and may have advanced to the Lunpola–Lanzhou line by the early Late Oligocene, this being similar to the position of the leading edge of the modern monsoon. Moreover, the frontal edge of the humid monsoon climate may have extended as far as the Qaidam Basin during the Middle Miocene, but then gradually retreated to the position of the modern monsoon front. The uplift of the Tibetan Plateau and global climate change may have played dominant roles in this evolution. • A Late Eocene sporopollen record was obtained from the subtropical Yunnan region. • The Asian monsoon extended from tropical to subtropical regions around 40.6 Ma. • The Asian monsoon reached the modern monsoon front in the early Late Oligocene. • The Asian monsoon advanced on one occasion to the Qaidam Basin in the Mid-Miocene. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Mountain glaciers are one of the most sensitive indicators of climate change. Reconstructing past glacier extents provides valuable insights into the climate change for specific regions where instrumental records are not enough and even absent. In the paper we mapped the outlines for 691 Little Ice Age (LIA) glaciers in terms of prominent moraines beyond contemporary glaciers in the Tanggula Mountains, central Tibetan Plateau (TP). Based on these glacier outlines, we reconstructed the ice thicknesses and surfaces for the LIA glaciers in the region. Accordingly, we calculated the equilibrium-line altitudes (ELAs) for contemporary and LIA glaciers. By comparing the ELAs between the contemporary and LIA glaciers, we estimated the LIA summer temperature decreases in different subregions of the Tanggula Mountains. Since the LIA, the ELA have risen by 35.6 ± 18.8 m, 26.1 ± 17.6 m, and 63.1 ± 38.6 m in the respective western, central, and eastern subregions of the Tanggula Mountains. Assuming no change in precipitation, the LIA summer temperature would decrease by 0.22 ± 0.12 °C, 0.14 ± 0.09 °C, and 0.34 ± 0.21 °C in the three subregions, respectively. Moreover, glaciers in the western, central, and eastern subregions have lost 13.3%, 23.9%, and 42.8% of their area, 15.4%, 25.3%, and 39.6% of their length, and 20.8%, 39.0%, and 61.0% of their volume, respectively. By compiling the LIA ELA data from previous studies, we also estimated the LIA summer temperature changes for other regions of the TP. The LIA ELA and summer temperature changes relative to the present showed a decreasing trend from the edges towards the interior on the TP. • LIA glaciers and summer climate were reconstructed at the Tanggula Mountains. • LIA summers were 0.22 ± 0.12 °C, 0.14 ± 0.09 °C, and 0.34 ± 0.21 °C cooler than present in three subregions. • Summer temperature change had a decreasing trend from the edges towards the interior on the Tibetan Plateau. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change inevitably affects vegetation growth in the Tibetan Plateau (TP). Understanding the dynamics of vegetation phenology and the responses of vegetation phenology to climate change are crucial for evaluating the impacts of climate change on terrestrial ecosystems. Despite many relevant studies conducted in the past, there still remain research gaps concerning the dominant factors that induce changes in the start date of the vegetation growing season (SOS). In this study, the spatial and temporal variations of the SOS were investigated by using a long-term series of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) spanning from 2001 to 2020, and the response of the SOS to climate change and the predominant climatic factors (air temperature, LST or precipitation) affecting the SOS were explored. The main findings were as follows: the annual mean SOS concentrated on 100 DOY–170 DOY (day of a year), with a delay from east to west. Although the SOS across the entire region exhibited an advancing trend at a rate of 0.261 days/year, there were notable differences in the advancement trends of SOS among different vegetation types. In contrast to the current advancing SOS, the trend of future SOS changes shows a delayed trend. For the impacts of climate change on the SOS, winter Tmax (maximum temperature) played the dominant role in the temporal shifting of spring phenology across the TP, and its effect on SOS was negative, meaning that an increase in winter Tmax led to an earlier SOS. Considering the different conditions required for the growth of various types of vegetation, the leading factor was different for the four vegetation types. This study contributes to the understanding of the mechanism of SOS variation in the TP. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A detailed understanding of snow cover and its possible feedback on climate change on the Tibetan Plateau (TP) is of great importance. However, spatiotemporal variability in snow phenology (SP) and its influencing factors on the TP remain unclear. Based on the daily gap-free snow cover product (HMRFS-TP) with 500 m resolution, this study investigated the spatiotemporal variability in snow cover days (SCDs), snow onset date (SOD), and snow end date (SED) on the TP from 2002 to 2022. A structural equation model was used to quantify the direct and indirect effects of meteorological factors, geographical location, topography, and vegetation greenness on SP. The results indicate that the spatial distribution of SP on the TP was extremely uneven and exhibited temporal heterogeneity. SP showed vertical zonality influenced by elevation (longer SCD, earlier SOD, and later SED at higher elevations). A total of 4.62 % of the TP area had a significant decrease in SCDs, at a rate of -1.74 d yr -1. The SOD of 2.34 % of the TP area showed a significant delayed trend, at a rate of 2.90 d yr -1 , while the SED of 1.52 % of the TP area had a significant advanced trend, at a rate of at -2.49 d yr -1. We also found a strong elevation dependence for the trend in SCDs (R=-0.73). Air temperature, precipitation, wind speed, and shortwave radiation can directly affect SP as well as indirectly affect it by influencing the growth of vegetation, whereas the direct effect was much greater than the indirect effect. Geographical location (latitude and longitude) and topographic conditions (elevation and slope) indirectly affected SP by modulating meteorological conditions and the growth of vegetation. Vegetation primarily influences SP by intercepting the snow and regulating the balance of the solar radiation budget. Regarding the total effect, air temperature was found to be the dominant factor. This study contributes to the understanding of snow variation in response to global warming over the past 2 decades by providing a basis for predicting future environmental and climate changes and their impacts on the TP. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In recent decades, glaciers in the southeastern Tibetan Plateau (SETP) have been rapidly melting and showing a large scale of glacier mass loss. Due to the lack of large-scale, high-resolution, and high-precision observations, knowledge on the spatial distribution of the glacier mass balance and the response to climate change is limited in this region. We propose a TanDEM-X bi-static InSAR (Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar) algorithm with a non-local mean filter method and difference strategy, to improve the precision of glacier surface elevation change detection. Moreover, we improved the glacier mass balance estimation algorithm with a correction method for multi-source system errors and an uncertainty evaluation method based on error propagation theory to reduce the uncertainty of estimations. We used 13 pairs of TanDEM-X bi-static InSAR images to obtain the glacier mass balance data for the entire SETP. The total area of glaciers monitored was 5821 km2 and the total number of glaciers monitored was 2321; the glacier surface elevation change rate was −0.505 ± 0.005 m/yr, and the glacier mass balance estimation was −454.5 ± 13.1 mm w.eq. during 2000–2014. Additionally, we analyzed the spatial distribution of the glacier mass balance within the SETP using the sub-watershed analysis method. The results showed that the mass loss rate had a decreasing trend from the southeast to the northwest. Furthermore, the temperature change and the glacier mass loss rate showed a positive correlation from the southeast to the northwest in this region. This study greatly advances our understanding of the regularities of glacier dynamics in this region, and can provide scientific support for major national goals such as the rational utilization of surrounding water resources and construction of important transportation projects. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As a region susceptible to the impacts of climate change, evaluating the temporal and spatial variations in ecological environment quality (EEQ) and potential influencing factors is crucial for ensuring the ecological security of the Tibetan Plateau. This study utilized the Google Earth Engine (GEE) platform to construct a Remote Sensing-based Ecological Index (RSEI) and examined the temporal and spatial dynamics of the Tibetan Plateau's EEQ from 2000 to 2022. The findings revealed that the RSEI of the Tibetan Plateau predominantly exhibited a slight degradation trend from 2000 to 2022, with a multi-year average of 0.404. Utilizing SHAP (Shapley Additive Explanation) to interpret XGBoost (eXtreme Gradient Boosting), the study identified that natural factors as the primary influencers on the RSEI of the Tibetan Plateau, with temperature, soil moisture, and precipitation variables exhibiting higher SHAP values, indicating their substantial contributions. The interaction between temperature and precipitation showed a positive effect on RSEI, with the SHAP interaction value increasing with rising precipitation. The methodology and results of this study could provide insights for a comprehensive understanding and monitoring of the dynamic evolution of EEQ on the Tibetan Plateau amidst the context of climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Qinghai-Tibet Plateau is now experiencing ecological degradation risks as a result of climate change and human activities. The alpine grassland ecology in permafrost zones is fragile and susceptible to deterioration due to its high altitude, low temperature, and limited oxygen, which complicates the repair of damaged land. Biological soil crusts (BSCs) are crucial for land restoration in plateau regions because they can thrive in harsh conditions and have environmentally beneficial traits. Inoculated biological soil crust (IBSC) has shown success in low-altitude desert regions, but may not be easily duplicated to the plateau environment. Therefore, it is essential to do a comprehensive and multifaceted analysis of the basic theoretical comprehension and practical application of BSCs on the Tibetan Plateau. This review article aims to provide a brief summary of the ecological significance and the mechanisms related to the creation, growth, and progression of BSCs. It discusses the techniques used for cultivating BSCs in laboratories and using them in the field, focusing on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau circumstance. We thoroughly discussed the potential and the required paths for further studies. This study may be used as a basis for selecting suitable microbial strains and accompanying supplemental actions for implementing IBSCs in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The major rivers on the Tibetan Plateau supply important freshwater resources to riparian regions but have been undergoing significant climate change in recent decades. Understanding the sensitivities of hydrological processes to climate change is important for water resource management, but large divergences exist in previous studies because of the uncertainties of hydrological models and climate projection data. Meanwhile, the spatial pattern of local hydrological sensitivities was poorly explored despite the strong heterogeneity on the Tibetan Plateau. This study adopted the climate perturbation method to analyze the hydrological sensitivities of a typical large mountainous basin (Yarlung Tsangpo River, YTR) to climate change. We utilized the tracer-aided hydrological model Tsinghua Representative Elementary Watershed-Tracer-aided version (THREW-T) to simulate the hydrological and cryospheric processes in the YTR basin. Multiple datasets and internal stations were used to validate the model to provide confidence in the baseline simulation and the sensitivity analysis. Results indicated that (1) the THREW-T model performed well in simulating the streamflow, snow cover area (SCA), glacier mass balance (GMB) and stream water isotope, ensuring good representation of the key cryospheric processes and a reasonable estimation of the runoff components. The model performed acceptably in simulating the streamflow at eight internal stations located in the mainstream and two major tributaries, indicating that the spatial pattern of hydrological processes was reflected by the model. (2) Increasing temperature led to decreasing annual runoff, smaller inter-annual variation, more even intra-annual distribution and an earlier maximum runoff. It also influenced the runoff regime by increasing the contributions of rainfall and glacier melt overland runoff but decreasing the subsurface runoff and snowmelt overland runoff. Increasing precipitation had the opposite effect to increasing temperature. (3) The local runoff change in response to increasing temperature varied significantly, with a changing rate of -18.6 % to 54.3 % for 5 ∘ of warming. The glacier area ratio (GAR) was the dominant factor in the spatial pattern of hydrological sensitivities to both perturbed temperature and precipitation. Some regions had a non-monotonic runoff change rate in response to climate perturbation, which represented the most dynamic regions within the basin, as they kept shifting between energy- and water-limited stages. The GAR and mean annual precipitation (MAP) of the non-monotonic regions had a linear relation and formed the boundary of regions with different runoff trends in the GAR–MAP plot. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The relationships amongst modern pollen assemblages, vegetation, climate and human activity are the basis for reconstructing palaeoenvironmental changes using pollen records. It is important to determine these relationships at regional scales due to the development of vegetation under different climatic conditions and human activities. In this paper, we report on an analysis of modern pollen assemblages of 31 surface lake samples from 31 lakes (one sample per lake) on the southwestern Tibetan Plateau where the knowledge of modern pollen and their relationships with vegetation, climate and human activities is insufficient. The region includes five vegetation zones: sub-alpine shrub steppe, alpine steppe, alpine meadow and steppe ecotone, mountain desert and alpine desert. The lakes span a wide range of mean annual precipitation (50-500 mm) and mean annual temperature (−8 to 6 °C). Modern pollen assemblages from our samples mainly consist of herb taxa ( Artemisia, Cyperaceae, Poaceae, Chenopodiaceae, etc.) and some tree taxa ( Pinus, Fagaceae, Alnus, etc.). The results indicate that modern pollen assemblages are able to reflect the main vegetation distribution. Redundancy analysis for the main pollen types and environmental variables shows that precipitation is the leading factor that influences the pollen distribution in the study area with the first axis capturing 13.7% of the variance in the pollen data set. The Artemisia/Chenopodiaceae ratio is valid for separating the desert component (<2) from the steppe and other vegetation zones (>2) but is unable to distinguish moisture variations. The Artemisia/Cyperaceae ratio is able to identify meadows (<1) and steppes (>1) and can be used as a moisture index on the southwestern Tibetan Plateau. Our results show that an appropriate range is needed for a modern pollen data set in order to perform pollen-based quantitative climate reconstructions in one region. It is essential to perform modern studies before using pollen ratios to reconstruct palaeovegetation and palaeoclimate at a regional scale. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Investigating the response of landslide activity to climate change is crucial for understanding the disastrous effects of climate change on high mountains. However, the lack of long-term, spatial-temporal consistent measurement of landslide activity prohibits the study of this relationship. In this work, we used two methods to derive the time series of a landslide's deformation and study its relationship with precipitation in the northeastern Tibetan Plateau. The small baseline subset-interferometric synthetic aperture radar (SBAS-InSAR) method with Sentinel-1A images is first applied to derive time series of the landslide's deformation from 2020 to 2021. A recently developed method to derive cumulative deformations of optical images was used with Landsat 5 and Sentinel-2 images to derive the long-term deformation time series from 1986 to 2023. Centimeter-scale deformations detected by using the InSAR method are mainly located in the upper and eastern parts of the landslide, whereas meter-scale deformations detected by using the optical method are in the middle of the landslide. Time-series results from both methods show that intra-annual initiations of the landslide's deformation occurred in rainy months (from July to October). Although there seems to be no direct relations between inter-annual deformations and precipitation, significant displacements since 2020 occurred after exceptionally wet years from 2018 (with a record-breaking precipitation year in 2020). With optical images, we found that the maximum cumulative deformation of the landslide has been >35 m since 1986 with major deformations (>20 m) found after 2020, which may indicate an imminent risk to the Lijie town near the toe of the landslide. With climate change, increased precipitation is expected in future, which may trigger more similar landslides in the vicinity of this region. This work demonstrates an executable framework to assess landslide hazard risk under climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Tibetan Plateau (TP) is the largest permafrost distribution zone at high‐altitude in the mid‐latitude region. Climate change has caused significant permafrost degradation on the TP, which has important impacts for the eco‐hydrological processes. In this study, the frost number is utilized to calculate the frost number (F) based on the air freezing/thawing index obtained from the downscaled Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) data sets. A novel method is proposed to determine the frost number threshold (Ft) for diagnosing permafrost distribution. Then the simulated permafrost distribution maps are compared with the existing permafrost distribution map, employing the Kappa coefficient as the measure of classification accuracy to identify the optimal Ft. Finally, the permafrost distribution on the TP under different Shared Socio‐economic Pathways (SSP) scenarios are diagnosed with the optimal Ft. Simulation results demonstrate that across all scenarios, the rates of permafrost degradation during the mid‐future period (2040–2060) remain comparable to those observed in the baseline period (2000), ranging from 33% ± 3% to 53% ± 4%. Conversely, during the far‐future (2080–2099), the permafrost degradation rates display significant variation across different scenarios, ranging from 37% ± 4% to 96% ± 3%. The profound impacts of permafrost degradation on the TP are reflected in decreasing trends in soil moisture and runoff, as well as a slower increasing trend in Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) compared to other regions, indicating negative impacts on vegetation growth. Plain Language Summary: The Tibetan Plateau, the highest plateau in the world and the largest high‐altitude permafrost region, is experiencing permafrost degradation due to climate change, significantly impacting eco‐hydrological processes in this region. In this study, we used the frost number model with air temperature to simulate the distribution of permafrost on the Tibetan Plateau under different scenarios. The results show that permafrost on the Tibetan Plateau is projected to degrade in the 21st century, especially under high‐emission scenarios. The degradation of permafrost will likely reduce soil moisture and runoff. Additionally, vegetation growth in areas with permafrost degradation is expected to be slow. These findings are of great significance for understanding permafrost changes on the Tibetan Plateau and their impacts on eco‐hydrological processes. Key Points: A new method using the frost number model with Kappa coefficient is proposed to diagnose permafrost distributionPermafrost on the Tibetan Plateau will experience the least degradation (33% ± 3%) under SSP126, and the most (96% ± 3%) under SSP585 in 2080–2099Permafrost degradation on the Tibetan Plateau is anticipated to reduce soil moisture and runoff, adversely affecting vegetation growth [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The study of the response of vegetation phenology in the Qinghai Tibet Plateau to various climatic variables is paramount to unveiling the reaction of alpine ecosystems to worldwide climate alterations. Nonetheless, the lagged and cumulative effects of various climatic variables on vegetation phenology in the Qinghai Tibet Plateau remain unclear. Therefore, based on MODIS NDVI data, we extracted vegetation phenological parameters from 2001 to 2020, including the start of the vegetation growing season (SOS) and the end of the vegetation growing season (EOS), and then analyzed the response mechanisms of vegetation phenology to pre-seasonal air temperature (T), precipitation (P), and daytime and nighttime land surface temperatures (DLST, NLST) in the Qinghai Tibet Plateau on the basis of an investigation of the lag and cumulative effects. The results showed that: (1) the multiyear mean values of the SOS mainly occurred from 120 to 160 days, accounting for 86.17% of the study area, while the multiyear mean values of the EOS were mainly concentrated between 260 and 280 days, accounting for 77.05% of the study area; (2) air temperature (T), precipitation (P), and daytime and nighttime land surface temperatures (DLST, NLST) had different degrees of lagging effects on the SOS and the EOS. Among them, the time lag effect of precipitation on vegetation phenology was more pronounced; (3) different climatic variables had distinct cumulative effects on vegetation phenology. In contrast to the insignificant cumulative effects of temperature and nighttime surface temperature on the SOS and the EOS, the cumulative effects of precipitation and daytime land surface temperature on the SOS were more pronounced than those on the EOS; (4) the SOS and air temperature, precipitation, and NLST were mainly negatively correlated, in which the proportion of the negative correlation between SOS and NLST was up to 68.80%, and SOS and DLST were mainly positively correlated with a positive correlation proportion of 73.27%, EOS and air temperature, precipitation, and NLST were positively correlated with a positive correlation proportion of EOS and precipitation of up to 71.52%, and EOS and DLST were mainly negatively correlated with a negative correlation ratio of 55.87%. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]