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Long-term experiments (LTEs) are a vital source of information contributing to understanding and assessing the sustainability of agricultural systems. The Broadbalk Wheat Experiment at Rothamsted Research, UK, started in 1843, is the oldest continuing LTE in the world. In 1968, and later, major modifications were made to the experiment. These included the introduction of short-straw winter wheat varieties, growing wheat in rotation with other crops, for comparison with continuous (monoculture) wheat and testing higher rates of N fertilizer (up to 288 kg N ha-1). Other changes included the use of herbicides and other agrochemicals, except on selected sections. Regular liming continued to maintain soil pH. This paper reports crop yields and soil changes since 1968 and summarizes other studies including the incidence of weeds, pests and crop diseases, effects of treatments on nitrate and phosphate movement to drainage water, greenhouse gas fluxes, measurements of N and S inputs from the atmosphere, and many other factors. The change to short-straw varieties led to a doubling of grain yields. In recent years with cv. Crusoe yields of first wheat after a 2-year break in a rotation were >3 t ha-1 greater than continuous wheat, mainly because of decreased incidence of soil-borne pests and diseases. On average, yields of continuous wheat tended to increase at N rates up to 240 or 288 kg N ha-1 while the 1st wheat after a 2-year break often needed less N to reach maximum yield. Best yields now exceed 12 t ha-1 in some years. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The prevention of fraud against older adults and other age groups, has been the subject of limited research with very few systematic attempts to map different tools and strategies that are used. This paper using the UK and South Korea as a starting point, but other countries too, maps some of the most common tools and strategies used to prevent frauds that target older adults. It develops the first comprehensive typology of strategies built upon the degree to which they embrace modern technology. It shows much of the prevention used is low tech, but high-tech solutions rooted in the fourth industrial revolution technologies are emerging and growing. The paper draws these different strategies and tools together to offer a holistic model for the prevention of fraud against older adults for further debate and utilisation by professionals. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper's objective is to investigate the validity of the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis utilizing three unique approaches in this era of accelerating climate change and economic volatility. The first step is to introduce and employ a new cointegration test which allows smooth and sharp structural changes through a dummy variable and a Fourier function. Using a time-varying causality approach, the second stage is to assess the EKC hypothesis's validity for each year of a given period, as opposed to the entire period. The third stage is to conduct time-varying analyses not only of the effect of Gross Domestic Product or aggregate income on environmental degradation but also of the effects of the four major economic units' incomes, namely those of the government, non-financial corporations, households, and the rest of the world. This research derives three conclusions using the United Kingdom as a case study from 1830 to 2016. The impacts of aggregate income and the incomes of the three economic units on carbon emissions are consistent with the EKC hypothesis. Second, each of these effects occurs at different times. Thirdly, the EKC hypothesis regarding the association between the nation's trade income and carbon emissions cannot be validated. To provide policymakers with a dynamic, unit-specific, and effective strategy for mitigating environmental degradation, the paper proposes testing the EKC hypothesis for each year over a specific time period, as well as for the effects of both aggregate income and the disaggregate income of four major economic units. • Explains why to estimate income-emissions nexus using disaggregate income data. • Introducing base models for estimating a disaggregate income-emissions nexus. • Illustrating how to make this estimation using time-varying causality analysis. • Aggregate and disaggregate incomes affect emissions differently over time. • Accurate, precise, and specific policy strategies require disaggregate income data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Archaeological data provide a potential to investigate the diffusion of technological and cultural traits. However, much of this research agenda currently needs more formal quantitative methods to address small sample sizes and chronological uncertainty. This paper introduces a novel Bayesian framework for inferring the shape of diffusion curves using radiocarbon data associated with the presence/absence of a particular innovation. We developed two distinct approaches: 1) a hierarchical model that enables the fitting of an s-shaped diffusion curve whilst accounting for inter-site variations in the probability of sampling the innovation itself, and 2) a non-parametric model that can estimate the changing proportion of the innovation across user-defined time-blocks. The robustness of the two approaches was first tested against simulated datasets and then applied to investigate three case studies, the first pair on the diffusion of farming in prehistoric Japan and Britain and the third on cycles of changes in the burial practices of later prehistoric Britain. • Bayesian methods for modelling diffusion curves with radiocarbon dates are introduced. • Sample interdependence and non-sigmoid diffusion curves can be handled. • Robustness is tested on simulated datasets and archaeological case studies. • Code and data are available on a GitHub repository and archived on Zenodo. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper draws upon ideas of decentred security, and governance and security assemblages, to explore the gendered nature of countering violent extremism. The paper focuses on the UK as an example of decentred CVE and concentrates on two areas. First, the paper looks at the evolution of modes of governing Muslim women in CVE initiatives. Second, the paper explores the tensions and frictions involved with the state and civil society using 'formers' (men who were previously involved in violent extremism) to engage in countering violent extremism community and de-radicalisation work. The paper finds that a decentred security governance approach to understanding CVE reveals how CVE is productive of MuslimWomen, of Muslim Communities and Violent Extremism. It also reveals CVE to operate not only according to formal documents and programmes but through an assemblage of beliefs, traditions and practices of everyday security. • National Muslim Women's Advisory Group. • CVE and 'Formers'. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Natural capital accounting provides a systematic framework through which to quantify the benefits of natural assets. National-scale applications have demonstrated the feasibility of developing such accounts and their value as a tool to support environmental policy and management decisions. Building on that success, there have been increasing calls for sub-national organisations (for example, protected area authorities and water companies) to develop their own natural capital accounts. As we document in this paper, recent efforts by local organisations in the UK to produce such accounts have tended to rely on a set of 'standard practice' methods, many borrowed directly from national natural capital accounting exercises. In this paper, we review those methods and apply them in producing natural capital accounts for two UK National Parks. Working with the National Park Authorities, we critically assess the usefulness of those accounts to inform local land management. On account of data gaps and significant sensitivity to methodological assumptions, our research shows that these local accounts are considered of limited practical use for land management decision making at a local scale. Through specific illustrative examples, we show that natural capital accounts for local decision-making can be improved through: the inclusion of fit-for-purpose data and valuation methods, the consideration of uncertainties, and the incorporation of ecological information and spatial aspects. We also highlight the need for the development of both standardised guidelines and readily-available tools to quantify and value ecosystem services. • 'Standard' methods to produce Natural Capital Accounts (NCAs) are tested for two UK National Parks. • Data gaps and sensitivity to assumptions limit current NCA methods for local management decisions. • Effective NCA application to local land management requires better consideration of ecological information and uncertainties. • Improved valuation methods and a systematic accounting of spatial and temporal aspects are needed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper reports an experimental investigation of noise radiation and psychoacoustic evaluation of contra-rotating propellers with different blade counts over multiple emission angles and thrust settings. A series of aeroacoustic and psychoacoustic tests were performed with a contra-rotating propeller rig at the University of Salford, UK, where both propellers' blade count and their axial separation z were varied at static conditions and constant thrust. The sounds were analysed using conventional acoustic metrics, such as Sound Pressure Level (SPL) and Sound Power Level for tonal, broadband, and overall noise, and using the psychoacoustic Sound Quality Metrics (SQMs) Loudness, Fluctuation Strength, Roughness, Tonality, and Impulsiveness. Configurations with axial separation-to-diameter ratio z / D between 0.2–0.4 exhibited a balance between tonal and broadband noise generation mechanisms, resulting in reduced noise levels and reduced annoyance for on-axis observers. The number of blades played a secondary role on determining noise levels: higher blade counts resulted in lower overall noise levels at larger axial separations, although at shorter distances (z / D < 0. 2) increasing the blade count led to higher noise levels. The SQMs Loudness, Fluctuation Strength, and Tonality were found to also reach a minimum at z / D = 0. 3 , although increasing the number of propeller blades led to a decrease in Loudness but not in Fluctuation Strength and Tonality. The dominant noise generation mechanisms observed here present a directivity null perpendicular to the propellers' axis, and no clear trends were observed for acoustic and psychoacoustic metrics at this emission angle. A listening experiment was set up to validate the results of the acoustic and psychoacoustic analysis, and its results suggest that the reported noise annoyance is driven by Loudness, Fluctuation Strength and Tonality metrics (p < 0. 01) at on-axis radiation, while at 90° emission angle, Loudness (p < 0. 01) and Tonality (p < 0. 05) are the main contributors to noise annoyance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Prominent theoretical positions in sociology and labor economics disagree whether educational expansion has outstripped the demand for qualified labor (overexpansion), or whether economies face a skill shortage despite increases in education (underexpansion). Focusing on the United Kingdom and West Germany, two countries with dissimilar skill formation institutions, patterns of expansion, and labor markets, this paper asks to what degree expansion of education has been absorbed. I point out shortcomings of wage-centered analyses and develop an approach that focuses on trends in self-assessed over- and underqualification. Using repeated surveys among workers and official labor market statistics, I estimate regression models that link the cohort-level expansion of education to the cohort-level prevalence of mismatch. Results suggest overexpansion in the United Kingdom, with overqualification increasing and underqualification decreasing over historical times and cohorts. West Germany, on the other hand, shows signs of underexpansion. While dominant theoretical accounts focus on the under-/overexpansion of tertiary education, my results show that mismatch-dynamics in both contexts are strongest for workers without university degrees. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Agri-environment schemes (AES), introduced by the EU Common Agricultural Policy (CAP), aim to compensate land owners for implementing environmentally-friendly practices. Whilst literature has examined their effectiveness and how farmer characteristics govern AES adoption, there is a lack of knowledge about the spatial drivers of AES, particularly structural, biophysical and landscape factors in the UK. Using the Humber region as a case study, this paper explores how the uptake of Countryside Stewardship options has varied from 2016 to 2021. It also examines 2500 farms from the field- and farm-level data of 2019 to better understand what type of land British farmers are adopting AES on. Logistic regression analysis is used to identify the factors (including farm and landscape characteristics, designated sites and land quality) that best explain overall AES adoption, as well as specific scheme adoption, at the field- and farm-level. Our analysis reveals that 'buffer strips', 'hedgerow management', 'permanent grassland', and 'winter bird food' are the most commonly adopted schemes of 2019. AES are generally adopted on larger fields and farms that feature marginalised, unproductive and vulnerable land, except for 'buffer strips' which showed a larger tendency to appear on fields with more profitable, higher quality land. This study, therefore, supports the notion that AES are generally placed on lower quality land and that large proportions of agricultural land owners are not effectively targeted. With the expected loss of direct payments to farmers in the UK as a result of the Department for Environment, Food & Rural Affairs (DEFRA) post-Brexit re-evaluation of rural policy, these results call for the Sustainable Farming Incentive (SFI) to be made more accessible and inclusive to a broader diversity of farmers. • We investigated the spatial drivers of agri-environment scheme (AES) adoption. • AES were typically adopted on larger, marginalised and unproductive land. • Buffer strip AES are more commonly implemented on profitable, higher quality fields. • The uptake of hedgerow planting schemes has been rapidly increasing. • AES policies should be adapted to target the full spectrum of land owners. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This research investigates the UK citizens' perceptions of the ecosystem services (ES) created using a range of Nature-Based Solutions (NBS) in urban green spaces (UGS). The longevity of the ES derived from UGS is dependent on the effective on-going maintenance of urban landscapes, therefore this paper also gathers data on direct UGS participation specifically through the lens of civic stewardship to assess the impact of such schemes upon ES. NBS typologies were created and used, in the mixed methods study, to gauge perceptions of and preferences for alternative urban landscape design. The UGS survey collected data from 345 respondents on ES and the NBS typologies. Twelve semi-structured interviews provide qualitative data on NBS typology preferences, perceptions, and understanding of ES as well as motivations behind civic engagement in UGS in the UK. Stewardship programmes were found to increase community resilience by providing additional ES. The results showed a preference for integrating complex, multifunctional UGS into the fabric of urban centres to ensure accessibility and to maximise engagement. More complex NBS typologies were perceived to provide additional ES when compared with traditional monoculture mown grass and shrub amenity planting. Mixed native planting and Tiny Forest NBS typologies were perceived as providing more provisioning, cultural, regulating, and supporting ES. Considering both UK citizens' perceptions of the ES gained from alternative NBS and stewardship schemes in UGS represents a holistic approach that can improve the design and management of NBS in cities. This study is the first to explore both concepts in the UK and suggests a holistic UGS approach to address urban challenges, including those related to Climate Change. • Over 50% value provisioning ES in cities. • Findings help to determine the types of NBS desired by the general public • 82% support more public involvement in UGS • 63% of survey respondents showed preference for native planting • The mixed native planting was perceived as more beneficial for biodiversity [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Phase analysis of ground vibrations due to a leak from a buried water pipe. • Underlying physics determined from spatially unwrapped phase data. • Analytical model, numerical simulations (FEM) and experimental data are presented. One way to locate a buried plastic water pipe is to measure the surface vibration due to a leak in the region above the pipe, and to process the data to infer the pipe location. This paper investigates the physical mechanisms that propagate leak noise through the pipe and the surrounding soil to the ground surface. An analysis is carried out of the relative phase between vertical ground vibration measurements at points in a grid above the pipe. The study involves experimental measurements from a site in the UK with a more realistic leak mechanism compared to recent research, a simplified analytical model to gain insight into the underlying physics, and a numerical model to validate some of the assumptions made in the derivation of the analytical model. Three waves are principally involved in propagating leak noise to the ground surface from the pipe, namely the predominantly fluid-borne wave in the pipe, and the shear and compressional waves in the soil radiating from the pipe. Their influence on the ground surface vibration is investigated through measured and simulated phase contours over a rectangular grid of surface velocity measurements. It is shown how shear and compressional waves combine to affect the shape of the lines of constant phase on the ground. The results demonstrate the potential of the proposed analytical and numerical models to investigate wave radiation from buried water pipes, and possible pipe location strategies using phase data from surface vibration measurements. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Extensive research has been conducted on the concept of jobless recoveries and their potential causes, primarily focused on the United States from the 1990s. This paper finds that the prolonged employment downturn following the brief 1980–1981 recession in Britain qualifies as a jobless recovery and then investigates possible contributing factors: labor reallocation across industries, regional employment changes, and job polarization. The United States, which did not have a jobless recovery from the early 1980s recession, is taken as a comparison case. I find that the leading candidate explanation for this jobless recovery is the reallocation of labor across industries. This suggests an important role for structural change in the early 1980s recession and in jobless recoveries more generally. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines drivers of prejudicial attitudes among adults in the UK, focusing on the interaction between ethnic out-group size and personality traits. Leveraging data from the National Child Development Study (NCDS), we use two survey waves carried out in 2000 and 2008, just before and after the EU enlargement policy that drove a wave of immigration in the UK. We test the extent to which personality traits moderate the relationship between both absolute levels and changes in ethnic diversity at the local level, respectively, and prejudice. Key findings suggest that personality traits, in particular one's agreeableness, are important for conditioning how the proportion of non-white British in one's neighbourhood affects out-group attitudes. We observe a tendency towards polarisation in prejudicial attitudes between low-/high-agreeableness residents as their neighbourhoods become more diverse. These findings have important implications for theorising how contextual and individual characteristics jointly affect intergroup relations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Through a framework that combines literature's observations on traffickers' policy-based representations with International Relations (IR) theories, this paper explores the representations of traffickers and anti-trafficking government goals in policies of the United Kingdom's (UK), Scottish and Northern Irish governments. Policies were found to mostly subscribe to a Realist's viewing of human trafficking, emphasising criminal choices. Still, and despite their growing tendency to focus on a wider range of traffickers, their dominant narrative tends to revolve around trafficking stereotypes, often ignoring the full spectrum of traffickers' identities to promote total human trafficking elimination. This discourse may overstate Britain's trafficking problem, sustaining state legitimacy and intervention and narrowing down the scope of anti-trafficking efforts. Conclusively, to ensure a more effective anti-trafficking response, the UK needs to set more feasible goals and based on an in-depth knowledge of traffickers strive to further enrich the policy-promoted human trafficking narrative. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The UK's 2050 net-zero emission target is one of the most ambitious goals in the world. Organisations should play a vital role by communicating a sufficient level of carbon emission information with the stakeholders. Motivated by the necessity of measuring the level of carbon disclosure, this paper provides a unique carbon emission disclosure measurement based on a sample of UK firms from 2013 to 2019. We apply different methods to assess the validity and reliability of our developed measurement. The results suggest that our measurement captures the actual CO2 emission, including scope 1, scope 2, and also captures the environmental, social and governance (ESG) score. Additionally, we explore the association between capital expenditure, corporate governance and the level of carbon emission disclosure. Further, the results show a positive relationship between capital expenditure and carbon emission disclosure. Also, there is a significant positive relationship between internal governance and carbon emission disclosure. Moreover, the analysis suggests that internal governance strengthen the relationship between capital expenditure and carbon emission disclosure. We also use quantile regression, and the findings show that capital expenditure and internal governance have a positive impact on carbon emission disclosure under all quantiles. Our data suggest that capital expenditure declines within the UK by around 53% over the last six years. Following the reduction in capital expenditure, the results demonstrate 39% decline in the CO2 emission level. The results also indicate that for every $1 million capital expenditure, approximately 2.75 Metric tons of carbon dioxide (MtCO2) emissions increase. Business investment is around 70% of the UK's total investment. Therefore, the reduction in capital expenditure is one of the primary reasons that might explain the decrease in the UK's overall CO2 emission level. The unique findings of this paper are relevant to the government, management and standard-setters. • Novel measurement of corporate carbon emission disclosure. • Our novel carbon disclosure measurement encapsulates actual CO2 emission. • This measure also captures Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) score. • Capital expenditure is positively related with carbon emission disclosure. • Internal governance moderates this relationship. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper discusses an interdisciplinary research project testing the efficiency of European Bronze Age axes through experiments with replica tools and the usewear analysis of prehistoric axe-heads from the collections of the Great North Museum, Newcastle upon Tyne (UK). The project explores whether changes in axe-head design and hafting arrangement from early to late Bronze Age might have been motivated by a desire to improve tool efficiency. The team, comprising researchers with backgrounds in archaeology, engineering, and statistical data modelling, carried out several field and laboratory tests to address the research problem. They subsequently validated the test results through the microscopic analysis of original Bronze Age axe-heads. The data suggest that hafting technology, and especially the resilience of the haft-blade assembly, is more important than axe-head design per se in determining the efficiency and working performance of Bronze Age axes. The research provides a fresh answer to a question rooted in 19th century archaeology and charts an innovative multidisciplinary pathway for studying human technology through the ages. • Axes changed their head designs and hafting technologies throughout the Bronze Age. • The resilience of the haft-blade assembly is more important than axe-head design per se in determining axe efficiency. • Experimental archaeology, usewear analysis, and tribology can be used to test the working parameters of ancient tools. • Statistical methods can be used to validate the results of these tests. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents a novel input–output frequency-response function (FRF) based field modal testing (MT) of an operational and fully occupied tallest cross-laminated timber (CLT) building in the U.K. A custom-built MT system and testing protocol were developed to facilitate exceptionally fast field testing work lasting only 10 h, including all instrumentation and field testing work. This yielded eight fundamental and higher-order modes of vibration with natural frequencies up to 12 Hz. The higher order modes are normally not possible to measure well enough using the standard output-only operational modal analysis (OMA). An FE model was developed prior to the testing to assure quality and facilitate the fast testing process. The FE model, based on the best engineering judgement, proved to be able to predict very well the key features of the test building. This includes close matching and correct clustering of the FE-calculated and MT-estimated natural frequencies, as well as a very reasonable prediction of the static stiffness at the top of the building. The in-situ measured horizontal static stiffness at the top of the CLT building is a considerable benefit of the field FRF measurements and is not possible in the standard OMA. It was shown that the preliminary best practice FE model was over-predicting the static stiffness in the two orthogonal directions by only up to 22% of the measured values. Curve-fitting of the good quality FRF data yielded damping ratio values for the higher order modes of vibration, typically above 3%. This is quite high for a full-scale multi-storey residential building. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

While official statistics provide lagged and aggregate information on the housing market, extensive information is available publicly on real-estate websites. By web-scraping them for the UK on a daily basis, this paper extracts a large database from which we build timely and highly granular indicators. One originality of the dataset is to focus on the supply side of the housing market, allowing to compute innovative indicators reflecting the sellers' perspective such as the number of new listings posted or how prices fluctuate over time for existing listings. Matching listing prices in our dataset with transacted prices from the notarial database, using machine learning, also measures the negotiation margin of buyers. During the Covid-19 crisis, these indicators demonstrate the freezing of the market and the "wait-and-see" behaviour of sellers. They also show that listing prices after the lockdown experienced a continued decline in London but increased in other regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The regulations introduced under the UK's Coronavirus Act 2020 to help curb the spread of COVID-19 caused considerable confusion due to conflation between what was regarded as 'guidance' and what was 'law'. The fast-paced nature of the pandemic meant that restrictions on public liberty and increased police powers to enforce the new 'rules' led to accusations of over-zealous enforcement behaviour of some officers, including a record number of Fixed Penalty Notices (FPNs) issued. This paper explores the experiences of police officers in a range of English police forces, using 28 h of qualitative interview data at two research points in time (2020 and 2022). The extracts presented here illustrate some of the challenges that officers faced enforcing the frequently changing rules and regulations during the COVID-19 pandemic in the UK. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Coordination of scientific research communities supported mathematical modelling of COVID-19. • Pre-existing research collaborations contributed to the success of coordination initiatives. • National infrastructure is key to support nationwide research networks. • Evidence synthesis important in supporting scientists providing advice to government. In March 2020 mathematics became a key part of the scientific advice to the UK government on the pandemic response to COVID-19. Mathematical and statistical modelling provided critical information on the spread of the virus and the potential impact of different interventions. The unprecedented scale of the challenge led the epidemiological modelling community in the UK to be pushed to its limits. At the same time, mathematical modellers across the country were keen to use their knowledge and skills to support the COVID-19 modelling effort. However, this sudden great interest in epidemiological modelling needed to be coordinated to provide much-needed support, and to limit the burden on epidemiological modellers already very stretched for time. In this paper we describe three initiatives set up in the UK in spring 2020 to coordinate the mathematical sciences research community in supporting mathematical modelling of COVID-19. Each initiative had different primary aims and worked to maximise synergies between the various projects. We reflect on the lessons learnt, highlighting the key roles of pre-existing research collaborations and focal centres of coordination in contributing to the success of these initiatives. We conclude with recommendations about important ways in which the scientific research community could be better prepared for future pandemics. This manuscript was submitted as part of a theme issue on "Modelling COVID-19 and Preparedness for Future Pandemics". [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• This work presents BLMM, a Python tool for analysing mass-univariate LMMs. • BLMM utilizes vectorization speed-ups when working with multiple voxels. • BLMM accounts for the ǣvoxel-wise missingnessǥ ubiquitous in large-n fMRI analyses. • The correctness and performance of BLMM are assessed via extensive simulation. • The paper concludes by providing a real data example based on the UK Biobank. Within neuroimaging large-scale, shared datasets are becoming increasingly commonplace, challenging existing tools both in terms of overall scale and complexity of the study designs. As sample sizes grow, researchers are presented with new opportunities to detect and account for grouping factors and covariance structure present in large experimental designs. In particular, standard linear model methods cannot account for the covariance and grouping structures present in large datasets, and the existing linear mixed models (LMM) tools are neither scalable nor exploit the computational speed-ups afforded by vectorisation of computations over voxels. Further, nearly all existing tools for imaging (fixed or mixed effect) do not account for variability in the patterns of missing data near cortical boundaries and the edge of the brain, and instead omit any voxels with any missing data. Yet in the large- n setting, such a voxel-wise deletion missing data strategy leads to severe shrinkage of the final analysis mask. To counter these issues, we describe the "Big" Linear Mixed Models (BLMM) toolbox, an efficient Python package for large-scale fMRI LMM analyses. BLMM is designed for use on high performance computing clusters and utilizes a Fisher Scoring procedure made possible by derivations for the LMM Fisher information matrix and score vectors derived in our previous work, Maullin-Sapey and Nichols (2021). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents a history of aggregate demand and supply shocks spanning 1900 – 2016 for the United Kingdom. Sign restrictions derived from a workhorse Keynesian model are used to identify the signs of those shocks. We compare the 30 largest shocks implied by a vector autoregressive model in unemployment and inflation with the narrative historical record. Our approach provides a new perspective on well-known events in economic history. We highlight two episodes of particular interest: an aggregate supply shock in the late 1920s, which we attribute to changes in the bargaining power of labor, and positive aggregate demand shocks in the mid-1970s, which we attribute to fiscal policy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Agroforestry has a potentially important role in helping agriculture address both the climate and biodiversity crises. It provides a means of producing additional marketable goods from agricultural land and enhancing biodiversity at the same time as increasing carbon sequestration and, in silvo-pastural systems, reducing carbon emissions if livestock stocking rates are reduced. However, the uptake of agroforestry in the UK has been limited. This paper adopts Real Options techniques to explore how the decision to adopt agroforestry is influenced by the relative levels of returns from agriculture, forestry and the price of carbon under the scenario where there are financial penalties from livestock Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions, financial benefits from carbon sequestration in trees and reversibility in land use decisions. The results are compared to the equivalent findings from a Land Equivalent Value capital budgeting approach to agroforestry adoption. Analysis is based on data from a case study upland livestock farm in Scotland, comparing the impacts of introducing agroforestry into the hill sheep enterprise or the low ground cattle and sheep enterprise. The results suggest that the adoption of agroforestry is far less likely than would be suggested by standard budgeting approaches, especially in more extensive upland enterprises (hill area) where sequestration benefits are low relative to more productive farmland areas (low ground area). Upfront support payments are shown to increase the likelihood of agroforestry adoption. They also have the effect of reducing the rotation length of forestry in such systems. • Real Options techniques are useful for understanding agroforestry adoption. • Agroforestry adoption is unlikely at current carbon price levels. • Biophysical factors have a significant influence on agroforestry adoption. • Upfront payments will significantly increase agroforestry adoption. • Standard budgeting approaches fail to recognise key barriers to agroforestry. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the resistance to shocks (economic, political, outbreaks etc.) of the ecological footprint in EU-5 countries over the period 1961–2016. The aim of the study is to determine whether the ecological footprint tends to return to the average with advanced econometric analysis. Efforts to move towards carbon neutrality, which increased after the Paris Agreement, are important for the countries in our analysis. To achieve our aim, we primarily used traditional and one-break unit root tests, followed by the novel SOR unit root test, which considers both sharp and smooth breaks to achieve robust results. The econometric findings show that EF and its six components (i.e., carbon, cropland, grazing land, forest, built-up land and fishing grounds) all contain unit root except the built-up land footprint for Spain and the grazing land and forest footprint for the United Kingdom. Our study provides policymakers with important information for implementing policies to reduce environmental pollution and achieve the target of carbon neutrality. • This study applies SOR unit root test, which considers both sharp and smooth breaks. • The results confirm efforts to move towards carbon neutrality in EU-5 countries. • The study contemplates policy recommendations aimed to reach carbon neutrality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The development of brownfield sites in the UK requires site investigation for contamination as part of the regulatory planning process. This site investigation includes the collection of soil samples that are analysed for asbestos contamination. This research project analyses this untapped resource of brownfield asbestos data, using site investigation data submitted to a local Borough Council, in Surrey, UK. Over 100 site investigation reports were collected. This paper presents the trends in asbestos testing from 2001 to 2019 and data on the location, concentration, form and type of asbestos found in this Borough. The rate of asbestos detection has increased significantly, reflecting improvements in asbestos measuring techniques, to a rate of 22% for all samples tested between 2016 and 2019. The concentrations of asbestos found were very low, with 74% of samples having concentrations below the limit of detection of the laboratory and were predominantly of fibrous form. A significant proportion of samples contained more carcinogenic amphibole type. Most of the asbestos was found in the top 1 m of Made Ground soil. Site history was found to be important with gas works having the highest asbestos detection rate, though a detection rate of 10% was found in soil samples on former residential sites. This information is important to inform and update risk assessment for site workers and site remediation in relation to asbestos. Hence based upon these results, a qualitative risk chart for asbestos is presented to provide guidance and in-sight into asbestos on brownfield sites for local authorities and developers. [Display omitted] • Local authority site investigation reports on brownfield sites were interrogated. • Asbestos analysis and detection rate of soil samples has increased in 20 years. • Asbestos found in top 1 m of soil and was predominantly fibrous. • Historical site use affected detection rate and type of asbestos found. • A qualitative asbestos risk assessment chart is presented based upon the results. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]