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• Regional integration presents a significant opportunity for African power systems. • Paper describes planning tool for regional power sector integration in Africa. • Model evaluates values of integration under different climate change scenarios. Regional power pools present a significant and potentially defining opportunity for African power systems to develop domestic energy resources, improve system reliability, and contribute to overall economic development. Hydropower is expected to play a significant role in many regional power pools in Africa. Feasible power transmission highways from Grand Inga in Democratic Republic of the Congo and the Grand Renaissance Dam in Ethiopia to other regions on the continent create the possibility of a pan-African electricity grid. However, in the medium and long-term, global climate change is expected to cause major variations in Africa's hydrological resources and it is not known how these changes may impact the value of regional power sector integration. This paper presents a model developed to study the value of different levels of regional integration in sub-Saharan Africa and how this value may change in the face of climate change. This work builds on previous studies by incorporating the ability to trade between different regional pools, co-optimization of generation and transmission, the ability to share reserves, and detailed simulation of the major hydro basins in Africa. Numerical results of the analysis will be presented in a parallel paper. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This research paper proposes a novel multi-model approach, integrating the CARIMA-SARIMA-GPM framework, to assess the combined impacts of climate change and land use change on the potential of concentrated photovoltaic (CPV) systems. By considering both climatic variables and land use patterns, this study aims to provide a comprehensive understanding of how these factors influence CPV performance in the context of a changing environment. The proposed methodology offers valuable insights into the future viability and sustainability of CPV technology, enabling informed decision-making for policymakers, energy planners, and investors in the Middle East and Africa. As a result, the ability of the hybrid evolutionary CARIMA-SARIMA-GPM to predict the potential of CPV energy output for assessing the impacts of climate change on it was investigated in Alice Springs, the Middle East, and Africa. The outcome showed that the hybrid model significantly outperformed the other machine learning approaches. The fitted model was used to assess the potential impacts of climate change on CPV generation in Alice Springs, Australia, as well as the Middle East's and Africa's comparable climatic conditions. According to the study, climate change had the greatest impact on solar CPV energy production in Alice Springs, where it decreased the most by 8.577% under moderate forcing scenarios (SSP245) during the boreal summer season; moderately in the Middle East, where it decreased the mode by 2.316% under mitigation scenarios (SSP126) during the boreal summer season; and extremely minimally in Africa, where it decreased the mode by 1.263% under the far future sequencing period (2051–2099). Climate change also increased solar CPV energy production significantly in the Middle East in the far future sequencing period (2051–2099), as well as in Alice Springs, Australia, and Africa in the near future sequencing period (2015–2050). The strongest forcing scenario (SSP585) increased by 7.644% during the boreal autumn season in Africa; moderately increased by 6.502% during the boreal spring season in the Middle East; and had the least beneficial effects in Alice Springs, Australia, with increases of 5.538% during the boreal winter season. On an annual basis, all three regions showed a similar trend. Climate change (CLC) and urban expansion (URE) were also investigated in the Middle East and Africa for their effects on changes in solar CPV energy output. URE had a greater impact in Africa than the Middle East under the effective scenario, with a URE value of 45.45% for Africa and 20.15% for the Middle East, whereas CLC had a greater impact in the Middle East than Africa, with a CLC value of 29.01% compared to 5.47% for Africa. CLC and CPV residual factors, on the other hand, have a greater impact in the Middle East than in Africa, with effects of 29.01% and 50.83%, respectively, compared to 5.47% and 49.09%. The potential difference that drives the remediation of specific pollutants lies in the application of advanced technologies and sustainable practices. By exploring innovative solutions, such as using renewable energy sources like concentrated photovoltaic (CPV) systems, we can effectively mitigate the impacts of climate change and land use changes on pollutant concentrations. These technologies have the potential to significantly reduce pollution levels and create a cleaner and healthier environment for future generations. Assessing the CPV potential in different regions like Alice Springs, Australia, the Middle East, and Africa allows us to identify areas with high solar energy resources that can be harnessed for efficient pollutant remediation. Implementing prompt climate mitigation and adaptation measures is crucial for achieving a net-zero energy transition in the Middle East and Africa by 2050. In this context, prioritizing solar energy as the primary source of renewable energy is imperative for successful low-carbon economic planning in these regions. • CARIMA-SARIMA-GPM outperforms other applicable models • By 2100, the CPV potential in Alice Springs could increase by 0.082–5.338% at 1.5 °C • By 2100, the Middle East's CPV potential could increase by 0.021–0.221% at 1.5 °C. • By 2100, Africa's CPV potential could increase by 0.133–7.644% at 1.5 °C. • Climate change has harmed Alice Springs and the Middle East more than Africa. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Water erosion, a notorious major threat to food security and ecosystem sustainability, is strongly conditioned by spatial and temporal scale effects. This paper systematically reviews the scale issues in runoff and sediment delivery (SIRSD) as a research field by integrating the traditional review approach and bibliometric analysis. This review summarises SIRSD's roots and the scale effect on runoff and sediment delivery. Then, we provide quantitative insights into the SIRSD domain's development history, thematic structure, geographic distribution, international cooperation, and methodologies. Findings show that: i) SIRSD arises from the gap between the non-linearity of runoff and sediment delivery across scales and our ability to measure it. Point-based and short-term measurements cannot capture the non-linearities from the spatio-temporal heterogeneities and cross-scale interactions of factors or processes. ii) Previous literature provides evidence that the spatial scaling of specific runoff (r), soil erosion (SE), sediment yield (SSY), or sediment delivery ratio (SDR) with drainage area (A) or slope length (L) exhibits contrasting patterns due to distinct mechanisms. Infiltration-excess and saturation-excess processes account for inverse and positive r - A relations, respectively. Interrill-erosion and rill-erosion cause inverse and positive SE-L relations. Hillslope-erosion and channel/bank-erosion explain inverse and positive SSY-A relations. Downstream increasing deposition and additional sediment inputs drive inverse and positive SDR-A relations. These scaling relationships can be nonlinear or complex due to spatial heterogeneities in land use, vegetation, topography, climate, lithology, and soil characteristics. Hence, applying an empirical scaling equation developed from the region with distinct environmental contexts is not recommended. Furthermore, the existing scaling patterns or equations may require updating given global climate and land use change. iii) SIRSD is a complex and multidisciplinary issue investigated by scientists from 93 countries since 1928. International research has substantially facilitated the understanding of SIRSD; still, more collaboration should focus on less-developed countries with high soil and water loss risks and urgent conservation needs, such as those in Africa and South America under cropland expansion. iv) Scale mismatch and scale break have discredited large-scale erosion and sediment assessments. Incorporating gully and bank erosion into modelling, extending the scale range of the L factor, and expanding the sediment scaling scope from watershed to slope may make a difference. Therefore, more research with nested design incorporating multiple scales is necessary for cross-scale analysis and scalable modelling. Addressing global climate change requires improving real-time urban flood forecasting and integrating downscaled climate models with hydrology, erosion, and sediment transport models. • A bibliometric review of the global SIRSD research for the first time. • SIRSD is rooted in the gap between natural nonlinearity and our measuring ability. • Scaling of specific runoff, erosion, sediment yield, and SDR has diverse patterns. • Scale mismatch and scale break discredit large-scale modelling and assessments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Food security is threatened in Southern Africa, because of unpredictable droughts and higher summer temperatures brought on by climate change and global warming. Durable and hardy plants that grow easily and quickly in such conditions must be adopted to ensure sustainable and reliable food supplies. The young cladodes (nopalitos) from the cactus pear plant, which adapts to hot and dry climates, is an underutilised alternative food source that can serve as a healthy vegetable. It thrives in many environments such as deserts, below sea level, high altitude regions and tropical regions with temperatures above 50°C. Nopalitos are a traditional staple vegetable and have been consumed in Mexico for over 9000 years. However, it is underutilised and unknown as an alternative vegetable in Africa. Research on the physiochemical and nutritional content has been conducted. However, the information on harvesting nopalitos from cultivars available in South Africa for optimal edible quality is not available. Good quality nopalitos are young, thin, bright green, soft, fresh and not too sour or slimy. This paper aims to identify the effect of and the interaction between size, cultivar and harvesting season to obtain optimal eating quality. Data were obtained for two cultivars (Morado and Fusicaulis) at 9 cm, 12 cm, 15 cm, 18 cm, 21 cm and 24 cm, which were harvested in spring (October) and autumn (March) over two years. The quality characteristics were translated into the measurable attributes of morphology (weight, width, diameter, volume and surface area), texture (firmness and compressibility), colour (L*, a*, b*, C*and h°), turgidity (moisture content, mucilage yield and viscosity) and gustatory (percentage titratable acidity, pH and total soluble solids). ANOVA and Principal Component Analyses were performed to determine significant differences and interactions between the length groups, two cultivars and two seasons. The results showed that the size, cultivar and season influenced the edible characteristics. Both cultivars were most tender at 15 cm and presented the best edible qualities in spring. Morado showed better colour, turgidity and gustatory qualities. Morado was thinner, a brighter green colour, less sour and less slimy compared to Fusicaulis nopalitos. • Nopalito quality is highly influenced by harvest size, cultivar and season. • At 15 cm, nopalitos from both Morado and Fusicaulis were the most tender. • Morado nopalitos was the preferred cultivar, but Fusicaulis also performed satisfactorily. • Spring harvest was preferable, but autumn harvest nopalitos were acceptable. • Morado was thinner, a brighter green colour, less sour and less slimy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Not including population changes lead to an average underestimation of the heat-health burden of 64 %. • Of the identified studies 45 % included changes in population size. • 23 % of studies included demographic change as changes in age structure. • Of the 15 studies using SSP-RCP scenarios 12 included implausible combinations. Anthropogenic climate change will have a detrimental impact on global health, including the direct impact of higher ambient temperatures. Existing projections of heat-related health outcomes in a changing climate often consider increasing ambient temperatures alone. Population growth and structure has been identified as a key source of uncertainty in future projections. Age acts as a modifier of heat risk, with heat-risk generally increasing in older age-groups. In many countries the population is ageing as lower birth rates and increasing life expectancy alter the population structure. Preparing for an older population, in particular in the context of a warmer climate should therefore be a priority in public health research and policy. We assess the level of inclusion of population growth and demographic changes in research projecting exposure to heat and heat-related health outcomes. To assess the level of inclusion of population changes in the literature, keyword searches of two databases were implemented, followed by reference and citation scans to identify any missed papers. Relevant papers, those including a projection of the heat health burden under climate change, were then checked for inclusion of population scenarios. Where sensitivity to population change was studied the impact of this on projections was extracted. Our analysis suggests that projecting the heat health burden is a growing area of research, however, some areas remain understudied including Africa and the Middle East and morbidity is rarely explored with most studies focusing on mortality. Of the studies pairing projections of population and climate, specifically SSPs and RCPs, many used pairing considered to be unfeasible. We find that not including any projected changes in population or demographics leads to underestimation of health burdens of on average 64 %. Inclusion of population changes increased the heat health burden across all but two studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ancient irrigation systems (AISs) have been providing a multitude of ecosystem services to rural farming and urban communities in Asia and Africa, especially in arid and semi-arid climatic areas with low rainfall. Many AISs, however have now been degraded. A systematic analysis of AISs on their typologies, causes of degradation, and their ecosystem services is lacking. The objective of this review was to synthesize the knowledge on AISs on their typologies, status and causes of degradation, ecosystem services and functions, and identify gaps in research in Asia and Africa. A critical review of peer-reviewed journal papers, conference and workshop proceedings, book chapters, grey literature, and country reports was conducted. Qualitative and quantitative information from journal papers were used to conceptualize the typologies and analyze the status and causes of degradation, and ecosystems services and functions provided by the AISs. Based on the review, we classified AISs into three groups by source of irrigation water: Rainwater harvesting system (RHS) with small reservoirs, ground water based system, and floodwater based system. The RHSs, which used to receive reliable rainfall and managed by well cohesive social organizations for their maintenance and functioning in past, have now been silting due to extreme rainfall pattern and breakdown of the cohesive organizations in recent decades. In ground water based systems, indiscriminate development of deep tube wells causing siltation of channels has been a major challenge. In floodwater irrigation systems, irregular rainfall in the highlands and the breakage of irrigation structures by destructive floods were the main causes of degradation. Lack of maintenance and increased soil erosion, inadequate skilled manpower, and declining support from the government for repair and maintenance were the main causes of degradation of all AISs. The main ecosystem service provided by all AISs is water for agriculture. In tank- and pond-based systems, fish farming is also practiced. Tank irrigation systems provide various types of provisioning, regulatory, cultural and supporting services, especially in India and Sri Lanka. Ground water based systems provide water for domestic purposes and various cultural services. Floodwater based systems provide water for power generation and wildlife habitat maintenance and help in flood control. The knowledge generated through the review provide evidence-based information, and help aware governments, private sectors and development agencies for improved policy planning and decision making, and prioritizing the restoration, rehabilitation, and management of various AISs. Community Managed Ancient Irrigation Systems in Asia and Africa: Typologies, Degradation and Ecosystem services. [Display omitted] • Ancient irrigation systems (AISs) in Asia and Africa provide a multitude of benefits to mankind but are at a threat of degradation. • A systematic review conducted to identify typologies, status and causes of degradation of, and ecosystems services provided by, AISs. • Three typologies (rainwater harvesting, groundwater, and surface water based) and four ecosystems services identified. • Cascade tanks in Sri Lanka and India provide irrigation water for farming communities and ecosystem services for local communities and societies. • Rehabilitation of AISs needs urgent attention by governments, private sector, and development partners. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• A comprehensive review of remote sensing applications in water resources monitoring and management in Africa is provided. • Evolution of remote sensing techniques, particularly in hydrological modeling is summarized. • Role of sensors, observations, and analytical models in monitoring Africa's water resources at different scales are highlighted. • In-situ hydrological monitoring networks and limited long-term rainfall and climate data remains a challenge in Africa. • The adoption of multi-source data integration, and big data analytics provides new opportunities to improve water resource management in Africa. This paper provides an overview of the progress made in remote sensing of water resources in Africa, focusing on various applications such as precipitation estimation, land surface temperature analysis, soil moisture assessment, surface water extent measurement, surface runoff and streamflow analysis, water quality evaluation, land cover/land use mapping, and groundwater analysis. Specifically, the study sheds light on the remarkable progress made in remote sensing applications, showcasing scientific advancements and highlighting the challenges encountered. Moreover, it identifies crucial knowledge gaps that need to be addressed in order to further advance this field. The review's key findings indicate that the availability of sensors and observations, along with analytical models, has contributed to monitoring Africa's water resources at various scales. The availability and accessibility of hydrological data for monitoring and assessing water resources in Africa have been partially improved through the adoption of satellite data and processing technologies. Additionally, the emergence of various international remote sensing initiatives, North-South research collaborations, and projects has contributed to the research progress. Prominent satellite data series such as Landsat, MODIS, and GRACE have played significant roles in African hydrological research. However, the limited and malfunctioning in-situ hydrological monitoring networks in Africa have affected the accurate calibration and validation of remotely sensed hydrological models. Insufficient long-term rainfall and climate data pose challenges to long-term earth observation research on African water systems. The lack of high-resolution spatial and temporal data hampered accurate monitoring of hydrological processes at smaller scales. Despite the widespread use of rainfall satellite products, validation attempts over Africa, particularly in western and southern regions, have been limited. Furthermore, the reliability of hydrological satellite datasets is affected by factors such as the number and coverage of surface stations, retrieval algorithms, data integration techniques, and cloud cover. Overall, this work demonstrates the importance of earth observation in understanding Africa's hydrology, previously hindered by the lack of in-situ data. Nevertheless, efforts are therefore needed to enhance the adoption and application of remote sensing, particularly in groundwater and surface water estimation at smaller scales. Future research should focus on multi-source data integration, assimilation, and big data analytics using cloud computing and machine learning to address complex hydrological research questions at various scales. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the context of still-low-but-rising levels of motorization and economic growth, increasing social and spatial inequalities, and growing concerns about air pollution and climate change, the formulation and implementation of policies, practices and partnerships that can support an accelerated implementation of sustainable mobility policies is an urgent concern for rapidly developing cities. This paper seeks to contribute to reframing some of the knowledge and methodologies produced in and about cities of Sub-Saharan Africa, through a comprehensive assessment of mobility patterns and accessibility needs within a larger debate about mobility transitions and sustainable development. By deploying a mixed-methods approach that builds upon case-study focus groups and city-wide accessibility and mobility analysis in the city of Freetown, Sierra Leone's capital, the paper maps travel patterns and their links with structural factors such as urban form, poverty, informality and social identities at the macro, meso and micro levels. The paper also presents evidence from a variety of methods that illustrate the significance of accessibility-centred information and analysis for establishing policy priorities for improving urban mobility and accessibility in the local, African and global contexts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate models and ongoing monitoring studies predict the remaining glaciers in Africa are predicted to disappear by the middle of the 21st Century. These will likely be the only glaciers present on the continent for some tens of thousands of years, until the next global ice age. This paper considers the implications of the shrinking cryosphere in Africa for the surrounding environment and local communities. Glacier retreat will give rise to significant and irreversible downstream effects on East African mountain landscapes in future decades, including impacts on water resources; slope stability and geohazards; ecosystems and ecosystem services; and human socioeconomic and cultural activities and heritage. This foresight study is the first to discuss future environmental impacts of deglacierization in East Africa, and this is framed around understanding the interconnections that exist between physical and human landscape elements in mountainous regions. A key outcome is the identification of elements of mountain systems that are most sensitive to environmental disturbance as a result of global warming, such as long-term water availability and processes that give rise to geohazards, and highlighting the need for management and mitigation of these varied impacts. • Glaciers in East African mountains are rapidly melting. • These will be the only glaciers present in Africa until the next global ice age. • Glacier retreat will result in significant and irreversible downstream environmental effects. • Most affected will be regional water resources, geohazards, and ecosystem services. • Change in mountain landscapes will impact on socioeconomic and cultural activities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the fight against global climate change, improving energy efficiency and reducing related emissions are critical to mitigating sustainability issues such as global warming. In this regard, technological progress is known to improve energy efficiency and reduce related emissions. However, previous sustainability studies on Africa have paid less attention to energy and emission efficiency convergence among countries, along with the contribution of technological progress to the continent's sustainability. Accordingly, this paper develops a novel framework that assesses energy and emission efficiency convergence, gauges technology inequality, identifies the barriers to technology diffusion, and explores the factors influencing energy and emission efficiency convergence in Africa. The proposed framework incorporates Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA), several economic convergence concepts, a K-means clustering model, the concept of efficiency Gini coefficient, and a group-based inequality decomposition method. We empirically covered 39 African countries from 2006 to 2018. The results show that African countries are, on average, 71.1% energy efficient and 65.3% CO 2 emission efficient, leaving more room for energy saving and emissions reduction. Second, there is strong evidence of convergence in energy and emission efficiencies in Africa. Third, despite the observed convergence process, there is significant heterogeneity between two research groups (i.e., low-and high-efficiency groups of countries) in terms of energy and emission efficiencies, with persistent technology inequality suggesting a lower contribution of environmental technological advancements to the continent's sustainability. Furthermore, cross-group inequality is the primary barrier to technology diffusion. Fourth, regional cooperation accelerates the convergence process in the two efficiency indicators. While economic development, industrial structure, and renewable energy consumption (REC) tend to favor energy and emission efficiency growth, rising foreign direct investment (FDI) and energy prices have a negative impact. Meanwhile, the effects of energy prices, FDI, and REC on emission efficiency are insignificant. Based on our findings, we discussed policy implications to promote energy and emission efficiency convergence and narrow environmental technology gaps. • Convergence in Total-factor energy and emission efficiency in Africa is explored. • Technology inequality across African countries is measured. • There is strong evidence of convergence in TFEE and TFCEE in Africa. • A persistent technology inequality is found among African countries. • Cross-group efficiency inequality is the main barrier to technology diffusion. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change and other anthropogenic threats are increasingly imperilling the diverse biomes of Central Africa, which are globally important for biodiversity, carbon storage and people's livelihoods. The objectives of this paper were to: (i) map the vulnerability of 100 socio-ecologically important priority tree species in Central Africa to climate change, fire, habitat conversion, overexploitation, overgrazing and (ii) propose a spatially explicit strategy to guide restoration and conservation actions. We performed ensemble distribution modelling to predict the present and future distributions of the 100 species, assembled other anthropogenic threat exposure layers, assessed species' sensitivities to the five threats based on their trait profiles, and constructed species-specific vulnerability maps by combining the species' exposure and sensitivity. The results show that these 100 species are vulnerable to the five threats, with an average of 34% of their distribution ranges under high to very high vulnerability and 60% under medium to high vulnerability to at least one threat. Many species identified as most vulnerable in this study are not considered as threatened by the IUCN Red List, suggesting a need to update their conservation status, potentially through integration of the vulnerability mapping methodology we used here. We generated both species-specific maps and summary maps including all 100 species identifying priority areas for a) in-situ conservation, b) ex-situ conservation, and c) active planting or assisted natural regeneration. We present an online platform to enable easy access to the vulnerability and the conservation and restoration priority maps for decision makers and support conservation and restoration planning across Central Africa. • Climate change and other anthropogenic threats menace the biomes of Central Africa. • We map the vulnerability of 100 tree species to climate change and four anthropogenic threats. • The 100 species have on average 34% of their distribution under high vulnerability. • We provide maps with priority areas for conservation and restoration in Central Africa. • Conservation planning and IUCN Red List should include vulnerability assessments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Southern Africa hosts regions of exceptional biodiversity and is rich with evidence for the presence and activities of early humans. However, few records exist of the concurrent changes in climate that may have shaped the region's ecological evolution and the development and dispersal of our ancestors. This lack of evidence limits our ability to draw meaningful inferences between important changes in the global and regional climate systems and their potential influence in shaping the region's natural and cultural history. This paper synthesises the data currently available to define a general empirically-based conceptual model of the spatio-temporal dynamics of climate change as they relate to changes in the earth's orbital configurations. The goal is to identify mechanistic links between orbital forcing, which can be calculated continuously over the past several million years, and environmental responses to related changes in the major atmospheric and oceanic circulation systems influencing southern Africa. Once identified, these relationships can be used to infer the most likely trends and patterns of climate variability for periods and regions for which proxy evidence is not available. Findings indicate that coherent patterns of change can be observed at wavelengths associated with ∼400-kyr and ∼100-kyr cycles of orbital eccentricity. In southeastern Africa, the ∼2400-kyr grand cycle in eccentricity may have had an influence long-term patterns of aridification and humidification, and the stronger ∼400-kyr eccentricity cycle has a significant influence across inter-tropical Africa, through changes in hydroclimate and monsoon circulation. The attribution of the ∼100-kyr cycle to specific orbital controls depends on location, as it can be determined by eccentricity-modulated direct insolation forcing or through the combined orbital parameters and earth system responses that drive the evolution of Pleistocene glacial-interglacial cycles. Following the onset of the mid-Pleistocene transition (c. 1250–700 ka), the increasing development of substantial polar ice sheets influence the nature of high-latitude drivers in southern Africa. In southwestern Africa, records indicate an evolution in climate and circulation systems strongly correlated with the global benthic δ18O record, suggesting a particular sensitivity to high latitude forcing. The close correlation between ∼100-kyr eccentricity and glacial-interglacial cycles makes it difficult to determine whether high- or low-latitude drivers dominate in southeastern Africa, but the spatio-temporal patterning of environmental variability in many records are generally considered to indicate a degree of high-latitude influence. Records from southeastern and southernmost Africa also indicate that the influence of low latitude forcing, expressed through the local precessional cycle, is – at least over the last glacial-interglacial cycles - dependent on eccentricity. Periods of reduced eccentricity, particularly during periods of extensive high-latitude ice sheet development, result in diminished influence in direct forcing and an increase in the expression of high latitude forcing, and an increasingly positive correlation between the northern and southern tropics at these wavelengths. In general, the records available allow for a simple conceptual model of the relationship between orbital parameters and regional climates to be defined, with the strongest relationships existing at longer timescales, such as the ∼400-kyr eccentricity cycle. At finer spatio-temporal timescales, the data indicate degrees of complexity that are not readily predicted, but the expansion of the regional dataset will continue to allow for refinements to the conceptual model described. • Review of influence of orbital forcing on southern African palaeo-records. • Wavelet and semblance analysis used to explore nature of orbital influence. • Orbital eccentricity has significant influence across inter-tropical Africa. • Increased ice volume alters climate change dynamics associated with orbital forcing. • Orbital parameters may be used to infer past conditions when direct evidence is not available. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]