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[Display omitted] • Impacts of climate and land use change on the distribution of ticks were explored. • A model of different ticks showed diverse sensitivities to environmental factors. • The future distribution probability decreased under the scenario SSP5-RCP8.5. • The future potential distribution of ticks shifted further north in China. Ticks are known as vectors of several pathogens causing various human and animal diseases including Lyme borreliosis, tick-borne encephalitis, and Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever. While China is known to have more than 100 tick species well distributed over the country, our knowledge on the likely distribution of ticks in the future remains very limited, which hinders the prevention and control of the risk of tick-borne diseases. In this study, we selected four representative tick species which have different regional distribution foci in mainland China. i.e., Dermacentor marginatus , Dermacentor silvarum , Haemaphysalis longicornis and Ixodes granulatus. We used the MaxEnt model to identify the key environmental factors of tick occurrence and map their potential distributions in 2050 under four combined climate and socioeconomic scenarios (i.e., SSP1-RCP2.6, SSP2-RCP4.5, SSP3-RCP7.0 and SSP5-RCP8.5). We found that the extent of the urban fabric, cropland and forest, temperature annual range and precipitation of the driest month were the main determinants of the potential distributions of the four tick species. Under the combined scenarios, with climate warming, the potential distributions of ticks shifted to further north in China. Due to a decrease in the extent of forest, the distribution probability of ticks declined in central and southern China. In contrast with previous findings on an estimated amplification of tick distribution probability under the extreme emission scenario (RCP8.5), our studies projected an overall reduction in the distribution probability under RCP8.5, owing to an expected effect of land use. Our results could provide new data to help identify the emerging risk areas, with amplifying suitability for tick occurrence, for the prevention and control of tick-borne zoonoses in mainland China. Future directions are suggested towards improved quantity and quality of the tick occurrence database, comprehensiveness of factors and integration of different modelling approaches, and capability to model pathogen spillover at the human-tick interface. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Two models were used to predict the potential distribution of Ae. albopictus in China. • The future bioclimatic variables were under the SSP1–2.6. • The range of Ae. albopictus in China is predicted to expand westwards. Aedes albopictus (Skuse) (Diptera: Culicidae) is one of the 100 most invasive species in the world and represents a significant threat to public health. The distribution of Ae. albopictus has been expanding rapidly due to increased international trade, population movement, global warming and accelerated urbanization. Consequently, it is very important to know the potential distribution area of Ae. albopictus in advance for early warning and control of its spread and invasion. We randomly selected 282 distribution sites from 27 provincial-level administrative regions in China, and used the GARP and MaxEnt models to analyze and predict the current and future distribution areas of Ae. albopictus in China. The results showed that the current range of Ae. albopictus in China covers most provinces such as Yunnan and Guizhou Provinces, and the distribution of Ae. albopictus in border provinces such as Tibet, Gansu and Jilin Provinces tend to expand westwards. In addition, the potential distribution area of Ae. albopictus in China will continue to expand westwards due to future climate change under the SSP126 climate scenario. Furthermore, the results of environmental factor filtering showed that temperature and precipitation had a large effect on the distribution probability of Ae. albopictus. [Display omitted] [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ornithodoros ticks as vectors of pathogens have had serious implications on public health. In China, these ticks are mainly distributed among arid and semiarid areas of the northwest. To improve prevention and risk control of such tick-borne diseases, suitable habitats for four Ornithodoros tick species found in China were predicted using a Maxent model. These habitats were identified based on the global geographic distributions that the tick is known to inhabit. For this study, literature reviews were conducted for each Ornithodoros species at a global level based on published studies and available online databases. Study results showed that high species suitability was primarily concentrated in northwest China for the species Ornithodoros lahorensis , O. papillipes , and O. tartakovskyi , with O. capensis limited to a predicted distribution along the coast in southeastern China. Under future climate conditions Representative Concentration Pathway scenario 4.5 and 8.5, suitable habitats for O. lahorensis , O. papillipes , and O. tartakovskyi were predicted to shift and would likely increase the potential of the species to spread, and O. capensis would reduce compared with the current climatic conditions. For all four species, temperature and precipitation were the main variables influencing distribution. • Northwest China was high species suitability areas for Ornithodoros. • O. capensis limited to a predicted distribution along the coast in southeastern China. • Using atmospheric and ground-derived data to assess the environmental niche. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

[Display omitted] • The climate suitability of cotton distribution is mapped using MaxEnt model. • The areas of improved climatic suitability comprised 38.08 % of the entire country. • Cotton production moved northward and expanded westward. • Consistency between climate suitability and production showed a decreasing trend. Understanding the varying distribution of climate-suitable areas of cotton (Gossypium hirsutum L.) can greatly aid in optimizing distribution of cotton production and sustainable production. Based on occurrence records, national meteorological data and the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model (a species distribution model), we investigated for the first time the interdecadal variations in climate-suitable areas of cotton with changing climate in China from 1961 to 2017. Then, the gravity center and concentration index were employed to investigate the spatial-temporal variations of cotton production. The results revealed the dominant meteorological predictors affecting climate suitability of cotton to be ≥ 28℃ accumulated maximum temperature from April to October, average temperature in the warmest month, continuous days with daily average temperature ≥15 ℃ and annual precipitation days. The climate optimum areas were generally distributed in the eastern and northern parts of the Huanghe Valley and Northwest Inland cotton regions, respectively. The climatic suitability of cotton has increased in China in recent decades. In particular, the areas of improved climatic suitability of cotton encompassed 38.08 % of the whole country from the 1960s to 2010s. This increase was concentrated in the Huanghe Valley and Northwest Inland cotton regions. The distribution of climate-suitable areas moved northward and expanded westward. Meanwhile, the gravity center of the cotton production moved to the northwest at a distance of approximately 1283 km from 1985 to 2015. Although both the production and distribution of climate-suitable areas of cotton shifted towards the northwest, the proportions of inconsistency between planting areas and climate-suitable areas increased from 22.76 % in the 1980s to 32.38 % in the 2010s. The increasing planting acreage in areas of low climate suitability may pose a risk to cotton production, especially in emerging major planting areas of the Northwest Inland cotton region. The results of the present study can provide a theoretical reference for the optimization of planting distribution and ensure the sustainable production of the cotton industry. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]