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Simple Summary: During overwintering diapause, the gynes of paper wasps (Polistes sp.) are mainly dormant in sheltered hibernacles, protecting them against predators and adverse weather conditions but hardly against low temperatures. By measuring the temperature inside hibernacles occupied by species from both Mediterranean (Italian; P. dominula, P. gallicus) and temperate (Austrian; P. dominula) climates (mean hibernacle temperatures: 8.5 °C and 3.2 °C, respectively), we were able to calculate the energetic demand of overwintering. The cumulative energetic costs differed between the populations. Costs were lowest for the P. dominula population from the cooler Austrian winter climate and significantly higher in P. dominula and P. gallicus from the warmer Italian climate. The lower costs of the temperate species were a result of the lower winter temperature and physiological acclimation processes. Energetic calculations with an assumed temperature increase of up to 3 °C due to climate change predict a dramatic increase of up to 40% in overwintering costs in all species. Gynes of paper wasps (Polistes sp.) spend the cold season in sheltered hibernacles. These hibernacles protect against predators and adverse weather conditions but offer only limited protection against low temperatures. During overwintering diapause, wasps live on the energy they store. We investigated the hibernacles' microclimate conditions of species from the Mediterranean (Italy, P. dominula, P. gallicus) and temperate (Austria, P. dominula) climates in order to describe the environmental conditions and calculate the energetic demand of overwintering according to standard metabolic rate functions. The temperatures at the hibernacles differed significantly between the Mediterranean and temperate habitats (average in Austria: 3.2 ± 5.71 °C, in Italy: 8.5 ± 5.29 °C). In both habitats, the hibernacle temperatures showed variance, but the mean hibernacle temperature corresponded closely to the meteorological climate data. Cumulative mass-specific energetic costs over the studied period were the lowest for the temperate P. dominula population compared with both Mediterranean species. The lower costs of the temperate species were a result of the lower hibernacle temperature and acclimation to lower environmental temperatures. Model calculations with an increased mean temperature of up to 3 °C due to climate change indicate a dramatic increase of up to 40% in additional costs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The increasing global warming trend has resulted in the mass loss of most glaciers. The Urumqi Vally, located in the dry and cold zone of China, and its widely dispersed glaciers are significant to the regional ecological environment, oasis economic development, and industrial and agricultural production. This is representative of glaciers in Middle Asia and represents one of the world's longest observed time series of glaciers, beginning in 1959. The Urumqi Headwater Glacier No. 1 (UHG-1) has a dominant presence in the World Glacier Monitoring Service (WGMS). This paper supplies a comprehensive analysis of past studies and future modeling of glacier changes in the Urumqi Valley. It has received insufficient attention in the past, and the mass balance of UHG-1 was used to verify that the geodetic results and the OGGM model simulation results are convincing. The main conclusions are: The area of 48.68 ± 4.59 km2 delineated by 150 glaciers in 1958 decreased to 21.61 ± 0.27 km2 delineated by 108 glaciers in 2022, with a reduction of 0.47 ± 0.04 km2·a−1 (0.96% a−1 in 1958–2022). The glacier mass balance by geodesy is −0.69 ± 0.11 m w.e.a−1 in 2000–2022, which is just deviating from the measured result (−0.66 m w.e.a−1), but the geodetic result in this paper can be enough to reflect the glacier changes (−0.65 ± 0.11 m w.e.a−1) of the URB in 2000–2022. The future loss rate of area and volume will undergo a rapid and then decelerating process, with the fastest and slowest inflection points occurring around 2035 and 2070, respectively. High temperatures and large precipitation in summer accelerate glacier loss, and the corresponding lag period of glacier change to climate is about 2–3 years. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As the second most predominant greenhouse gas, methane-targeted emission mitigation holds the potential to decelerate the pace of global warming. Satellite remote sensing is an important monitoring tool, and we review developments in the satellite detection of methane. This paper provides an overview of the various types of satellites, including the various instrument parameters, and describes the different types of satellite retrieval algorithms. In addition, the currently popular methane point source quantification method is presented. Based on existing research, we delineate the classification of methane remote sensing satellites into two overarching categories: area flux mappers and point source imagers. Area flux mappers primarily concentrate on the assessment of global or large-scale methane concentrations, with a further subclassification into active remote sensing satellites (e.g., MERLIN) and passive remote sensing satellites (e.g., TROPOMI, GOSAT), contingent upon the remote sensing methodology employed. Such satellites are mainly based on physical models and the carbon dioxide proxy method for the retrieval of methane. Point source imagers, in contrast, can detect methane point source plumes using their ultra-high spatial resolution. Subcategories within this classification include multispectral imagers (e.g., Sentinel-2, Landsat-8) and hyperspectral imagers (e.g., PRISMA, GF-5), contingent upon their spectral resolution disparities. Area flux mappers are mostly distinguished by their use of physical algorithms, while point source imagers are dominated by data-driven methods. Furthermore, methane plume emissions can be accurately quantified through the utilization of an integrated mass enhancement model. Finally, a prediction of the future trajectory of methane remote sensing satellites is presented, in consideration of the current landscape. This paper aims to provide basic theoretical support for subsequent scientific research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ecuador is a country with several climate zones. However, their behaviour is similar throughout the year, with no peaks of extreme temperatures in the various seasons. This paper is a first approach to study the adaptive comfort behaviour in several areas and populations of the country. Considering the ASHRAE 55-2020 model, energy simulation programmes are applied not just to the current climate scenario but also to the climate change scenarios of 2050 and 2100. The results of locations are analysed and compared to determine their performance. Thanks to their climate characteristics, adaptive comfort models could be applied as a passive strategy, using natural ventilation for building indoor comfort improvement, particularly social dwellings. According to previous studies, some prototypes have not considered the climate determinants in each region. Given the geographic situation of the study areas, the adaptive comfort model could be applied in all cases. Percentages of application of natural ventilation and heating and cooling degree hours have similar behaviours according to the climatic region, with a variation greater than 30% among them. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Drought monitoring and early detection have improved greatly in recent decades through the development and refinement of numerous indices and indicators. However, a lack of guidance, based on user experience, exists as to which drought-monitoring tools are most appropriate in a given location. This review paper summarizes the results of targeted user engagement and the published literature to improve the understanding of drought across North America and to enhance the utility of drought-monitoring tools. Workshops and surveys were used to assess and make general conclusions about the perceived performance of drought indicators, indices and impact information used for monitoring drought in the five main Köppen climate types (Tropical, Temperate, Continental, Polar Tundra, Dry) found across Canada, Mexico, and the United States. In Tropical, humid Temperate, and southerly Continental climates, droughts are perceived to be more short-term (less than 6 months) in duration rather than long-term (more than 6 months). In Polar Tundra climates, Dry climates, Temperate climates with dry warm seasons, and northerly Continental climates, droughts are perceived to be more long-term than short-term. In general, agricultural and hydrological droughts were considered to be the most important drought types. Drought impacts related to agriculture, water supply, ecosystem, and human health were rated to be of greatest importance. Users identified the most effective indices and indicators for monitoring drought across North America to be the U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM) and Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) (or another measure of precipitation anomaly), followed by the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) (or another satellite-observed vegetation index), temperature anomalies, crop status, soil moisture, streamflow, reservoir storage, water use (demand), and reported drought impacts. Users also noted the importance of indices that measure evapotranspiration, evaporative demand, and snow water content. Drought indices and indicators were generally thought to perform equally well across seasons in Tropical and colder Continental climates, but their performance was perceived to vary seasonally in Dry, Temperate, Polar Tundra, and warmer Continental climates, with improved performance during warm and wet times of the year. The drought indices and indicators, in general, were not perceived to perform equally well across geographies. This review paper provides guidance on when (time of year) and where (climate zone) the more popular drought indices and indicators should be used. The paper concludes by noting the importance of understanding how drought, its impacts, and its indicators are changing over time as the climate warms and by recommending ways to strengthen the use of indices and indicators in drought decision making. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Simple Summary: There is increasing interest in the study of how the ongoing climate change is affecting insect populations. However, most research has been focused on a limited number of groups that are particularly charismatic or expected to respond more clearly to climate change. Moreover, most research has been developed in a few areas (especially northern and central European countries), while others (such as the Mediterranean basin) have been largely overlooked. Therefore, more empirical research is needed, particularly on less charismatic species, groups that are expected to react less dramatically to climatic change, and key areas that are still poorly investigated. This study investigates changes in distributional and activity patterns in a common, ecologically tolerant, forest tenebrionid beetle in a region (central Italy) within the Mediterranean biodiversity hotspot, an area strongly subjected to the ongoing climate change, but for which research is still limited. By analyzing changes in elevation, latitude, longitude, and seasonal activity between 1900–1980 and 1981–2022, the results provided insights into the potential effects of climate change on this species. The beetle's average values of elevation and latitude were found to have been increased in the second period. In response to rising temperatures, the species became more frequent at higher elevation and in northern places. No strong evidence was found for an earlier species seasonal activity, but this could be due to the inclusion in the analysis of likely overwintering individuals. The findings suggest that even thermally tolerant species can undergo distributional shifts in elevation and latitude, even at a relatively small scale. There is an increasing volume of literature on the impact of climate change on insects. However, there is an urgent need for more empirical research on underrepresented groups in key areas, including species for which the effects of climatic change may seem less evident. The present paper illustrates the results of a study on a common forest tenebrionid beetle, Accanthopus velikensis (Piller and Mitterpacher, 1783), at a regional scale within the Mediterranean basin. Using a large set of records from Latium (central Italy), changes in the median values of elevation, latitude, longitude, and phenology between two periods (1900–1980 vs. 1981–2022) were tested. Records of A. velikensis in the period 1981–2022 showed median values of elevation and latitude higher than those recorded in the first period. Thus, in response to rising temperatures, the species became more frequent at higher elevation and in northern places. By contrast, A. velikensis does not seem to have changed its activity pattern in response to increased temperatures, but this might be an artifact due to the inclusion of likely overwintering individuals. The results obtained for A. velikensis indicate that even thermally euryoecious species can show changes in their elevational and latitudinal distribution, and that poleward shifts can be apparent even within a small latitudinal gradient. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global warming is causing poleward expansion of species ranges. Temperate seas, in particular, are undergoing a process known as 'tropicalisation', i.e., the combination of sea-water warming and establishment of southern species. The Ligurian Sea is one of the coldest sectors of the Mediterranean and has thus been characterized by a dearth of warm-temperate species and a comparative abundance of cold-temperate species. This paper uses a time series of sea surface temperature (SST) and new records of thermophilic fish species to reconsider the biogeography of the Ligurian Sea. SST has risen by about 0.7 °C on average between 1948 and 2023, but two phases may be distinguished: a cool one (ended in the mid-1980s) and a warm one (still ongoing); the latter phase shows alternating periods of rapid warming and comparatively stationary temperature. The arrival of thermophilic species coincided with the periods of rapid warming; some of these species were established in the subsequent stationary periods. Heatwaves and climate-related diseases associated with the periods of rapid warming have caused mass mortalities of autochthonous species. Our knowledge on the biogeography of the Ligurian Sea was established during the cool phase; the present situation, however, calls for re-defining the chorological spectrum of the Ligurian Sea biota. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The interaction between climate warming and alien fish invasions could have severe consequences in inland waters, which represent isolated environments with high biodiversity richness. Due to the current climatic trend, increasing water temperatures and salinization, shorter ice cover period, and altered flow regimes are predicted for these environments. The aim of this review is to offer a comprehensive analysis at a global scale of the recent studies available in the literature, focused on the responses of invasive freshwater fish to the effects of climate change in both lotic and lentic environments. To achieve this purpose, we selected 34 relevant papers, using the Scopus and Google Scholar database. New alien species establishment, distribution range expansion of species already introduced, and exacerbating impacts on freshwater ecosystems and the native fish communities they host were included in the topics covered by the analyzed papers. Despite the uncertainties related to the unpredictability with which the effects of global warming will occur, the findings of the selected studies served as a support to evaluate conservation and management implications, with particular reference to possible mitigation strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change indices (CCI) profoundly contribute to understanding the climate and its change. They are used to present climate change in an easy-to-understand and tangible way, thus, facilitating climate communication. Most of these indices are calculated by daily data but there are also many valuable data sets that consist solely of a monthly temporal frequency. In this paper, we present a method that enables the estimation of specific CCIs from monthly instead of daily data, allowing the expression and examination of data sets consisting solely of monthly parameters through climate change indices. Therefore, we used the ERA5 Land data supplemented by a CMIP6 ssp5-8.5 climate projection to train multiple regression models with different regression functions and selected the best fitting for every grid point. Using a climate projection as a supplement in training the regression functions accounts for climate change and empowers the method's application in future climate periods. The method includes a simple bias adjustment (delta change). Its output is regridded to ERA5 Land's 0. 1 ∘ grid, adapting it to the local environment and offering better application in areas with complex terrain using coarse data. Furthermore, the presented method and its regression coefficients can be created from any data set, allowing an even higher spatial resolution than ERA5 Land's. While the method performs best for the temperature-related indices in warm temperate climates, it works uniformly well for the precipitation-related index maximum consecutive dry days on a global scale. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The rainfall distribution in southwest China is uneven, and the rainstorm threshold cannot use in a unified standard. This paper synthesizes a calculation method for the extremely heavy precipitation threshold and the provision of the rainstorm threshold in meteorological operation. It calculates the daily precipitation rainstorm threshold at 400 national ground stations in southwest China. The rainstorm events from 1961 to 2021 were statistically analyzed using the rainstorm threshold and analyzing the spatial-temporal variation characteristics. The results show that the number of single-station rainstorm events and the average precipitation of single-station rainstorm events in southwest China decreased from east to west. The number and frequency of single-station rainstorm events in Guizhou, Sichuan, Tibet, and Chongqing are increasing, while the number of single-station rainstorm events in Yunnan is decreasing. There is no apparent spatial distribution pattern for the continuous rainstorm events in the southwest region. From 1961 to 2021, the number and frequency of rainstorm events at a single station in southwest China followed an upward trend. The number of rainstorm events at a single station increased by 16.7 times · (10a)−1, and the frequency of rainstorms increased by 9.9% · (10a)−1. The continuous rainstorm events show an increasing trend, with an increase of 0.1 times · (10a)−1. Using the rainstorm threshold in southwest China, the early warning threshold for rainstorm disasters can be adjusted. The temporal and spatial characteristics of rainstorm events since 1961 can analyze the changes occurring in rainstorm events under global warming and provide data to support the response of southwest China to climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Rapid Arctic warming is expected to result in widespread permafrost degradation. However, observations show that site-specific conditions (vegetation and soils) may offset the reaction of permafrost to climate change. This paper summarizes 43 years of interannual seasonal thaw observations from tundra landscapes surrounding the Marre-Sale on the west coast of the Yamal Peninsula, northwest Siberia. This robust dataset includes landscape-specific climate, active layer thickness, soil moisture, and vegetation observations at multiple scales. Long-term trends from these hierarchically scaled observations indicate that drained landscapes exhibit the most pronounced responses to changing climatic conditions, while moist and wet tundra landscapes exhibit decreasing active layer thickness, and river floodplain landscapes do not show changes in the active layer. The slow increase in seasonal thaw depth despite significant warming observed over the last four decades on the Yamal Peninsula can be explained by thickening moss covers and ground surface subsidence as the transient layer (ice-rich upper permafrost soil horizon) thaws and compacts. The uneven proliferation of specific vegetation communities, primarily mosses, is significantly contributing to spatial variability observed in active layer dynamics. Based on these findings, we recommend that regional permafrost assessments employ a mean landscape-scale active layer thickness that weights the proportions of different landscape types. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Heterosigma akashiwo is a golden-brown unicellular phytoflagellate with a high potential to create harmful algal blooms (HABs) and kill fish in many coastal regions worldwide, resulting in significant economic losses. Climate change and global warming have been introduced as triggers that impact the frequency and severity of H. akashiwo and other bloom-forming species in the past decades. In this review paper, the author tried to briefly discuss the morphology and taxonomy of H. akashiwo and show how environmental parameters can influence the physiology and toxicity of this species. Although the toxin production and mechanisms are still a conundrum, the proposed fish-killing mechanisms will be reviewed in the next step. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Citrus are the most produced fruits worldwide. It is expected that these crops will be severely affected by climate change. However, the literature lacks works that attempt to understand the influence of climate change on citrus. For this reason, a bibliometric analysis was conducted on climate change and citrus to investigate its development and current trends in this research domain. The main trends, keywords, and their relations were identified. The period from 1992 to 2022 was analyzed, resulting in 178 documents in the Scopus database. The most significant publishers' countries were also the largest citrus producers in the world besides being G7 members. Three main research areas were identified: modeling, socio-political issues, and plant physiology. A tendency to change interest from modeling and risk analysis to physiology and stress studies was observed. Additionally, some of the most cited papers observed the positive impacts of climate change on certain citrus crops. Despite the multidisciplinary publications, two main gaps were identified: (i) the lack of investigations with combined stresses (abiotic and biotic) instead of isolated studies, and (ii) the lack of studies of predictive models for citrus production in different conditions and climate change scenarios. Finally, there was a tendency toward studying water use and irrigation alternatives due to water scarcity and management solutions to improve the production system's resilience, considering the potential impacts of climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Due to the challenge of global warming, the European Union (EU) signed the Paris Agreement (2015) to diminish total Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions. This paper addresses the conflict that EU member states face when they want to follow the target of the Paris Agreement for the period 2021–2030 which is a 55% GHG emission reduction by 2030 (compared with GHG emission in 1990). EU member states have to emit at a level that is lower than their emission needs. To solve this problem, we implement the claims problems approach as a method for distributing insufficient resources among parties with greater demands. We use several well-known division rules to divide the emission budget among EU member states. We define a set of principles that should be satisfied by division rules to select the most optimal allocation method. To diminish the effect of countries' preferences on the allocation we use equity and stability criteria to examine the fairness of the rules. Moreover, we allocate the emission budget in two ways: First, we apply division rules to allocate the total emission budget for 2021–2030 among countries. Second, we allocate the emission budget annually from 2021 to 2030. We propose that Constrained Equal Awards (CEA) is an appropriate division rule to meet the target of 2030. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Under global warming, the climate in semi-arid inland Eurasia (SAIE) has changed in an opposite manner, thereby seriously impacting the local ecological environment. However, the key influencing factors and physical mechanism remain inconclusive. In this paper, we remodel the precipitation recycling ratio (PRR) model to assess the contributions of moisture from different water vapor sources to local precipitation, analyze the characteristics of the PRR and precipitation in SAIE, and provide possible physical reasons based on the Clausius–Clapeyron equation. It is found that the PRR increased from 1970 to 2017 as the result of linear trend analysis, with obvious seasonality. Moreover, the component of precipitation contributed by locally evaporated moisture (Pl), and that contributed by advected moisture (Pa) as well as the total precipitation (P), increased during the past 48 years. In particular, the Pa, Pl, and P in autumn and winter all increased obviously during the past 20 years from the interdecadal change trend, as well as the PRR (Pl/P), which was opposite to the decrease in the total water vapor input I(Ω) in the horizontal direction. According to the Clausius–Clapeyron equation, one of the causes might be that global warming has accelerated the local water cycle and driven the increase in Pa, and the increase in atmospheric water holding capacity caused by global warming provides the power source. We suggest that the climate's transformation from dry to wet in SAIE can only be temporary since SAIE is an inland area and the adjustment of atmospheric circulation did not lead to the increase in external water vapor. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Due to global warming and other climate changes, it is increasingly important to study the response of regional environmental changes and dynamic changes in vegetation to climate change. Based on meteorological data from the last 60 years, this paper calculates the humidity index of western China under a wide range of long time series in different regions and explores the cross-correlation effect between series by offering a comparison with NDVI data, to analyze the cross-correlation between wet and dry changes and changes in vegetation in western China on a spatial scale. The results show that the spatial distribution of the interdecadal humidity index is different between different regions in western China. For example, the semi-arid and the semi-humid zones of the Weihe River region exhibit significant changes, while the Xinjiang and Qinghai–Tibet regions show a trend of constant wetness, on the whole, and the Sichuan and Yunnan–Guizhou regions are relatively humid and the distribution of wetness and dryness is relatively stable. The distribution of high and low values of the humidity index is very obvious and consistent with that of the distribution of desert bare land and precipitation in western China. In common with the distribution in the humidity index, the maximum correlation number between the NDVI and the humidity index in the whole western region is also significantly different in spatial distribution. There is a positive correlation between the NDVI and the humidity index in 99% of the study area. However, the delay in response time of the NDVI to changes in the humidity index in each region is inconsistent. For example, changes in the NDVI lag changes in the humidity index in the Menggan region by generally either 2 months or 5 months, while in the Sichuan region the delay in response time is generally 3 months. The variation and trend in dry and wet areas are closely related to the geographical location, climate zone, and topographic terrain, which may be the reason for the differences in the distribution of vegetation types and the response time to dry and wet changes. There is significant interaction between the humidity index and the vegetation type or precipitation distribution in western China. The positive correlation between the NDVI and the humidity index means that the positive effect is more sensitive, and the response of grassland is the most sensitive in the ecosystem. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Increasingly people, especially those residing in urban areas with the urban heat island effect, are getting exposed to extreme heat due to ongoing global warming. A number of methods have been developed, so far, to assess urban heat vulnerability in different locations across the world concentrating on diverse aspects of these methods. While there is growing literature, thorough review studies that compare, contrast, and help understand the prospects and constraints of urban heat vulnerability assessment methods are scarce. This paper aims to bridge this gap in the literature. A systematic literature review with the preferred reporting items for systematic reviews and meta-analyses (PRISMA) approach is utilized as the methodological approach. PRISMA is an evidence-based minimum set of items for reporting in systematic reviews and meta-analyses. The results are analyzed in three aspects—i.e., indicators and data, modelling approaches, and validation approaches. The main findings disclose that: (a) Three types of indicators are commonly used—i.e., demographic properties and socioeconomic status, health conditions and medical resources, and natural and built environmental factors; (b) Heat vulnerability indexing models, equal weighting method, and principal component analysis are commonly used in modelling and weighting approaches; (c) Statistical regressions and correlation coefficients between heat vulnerability results and adverse health outcomes are commonly used in validation approaches, but the performance varies across studies. This study informs urban policy and generates directions for prospective research and more accurate vulnerability assessment method development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Compound droughts and heatwaves (CDHWs) are likely to cause more severe natural disasters than a single extreme event, and they have been exacerbated by rapid global warming. Based on high-resolution grid data, this study combines the daily-scale ERA5-Land dataset and the monthly-scale SPEI dataset with multiple indicators to analyze CDHWs. We calculated and analyzed the temporal and spatial modal distribution of CDHWs in Central Asia from 1981 to 2018, and in this paper, we discuss the sequence relationship between drought events, heatwave events, and CDHWs. The results show that the number of CDHWs in the study region have increased over time and expanded in terms of area, especially in eastern and southwestern Central Asia. The tsum (total frequency of CDHWs) was 0.5 times higher than the total heatwave frequency and it increased at a rate of 0.17/yr. The maximum duration of tmax (maximum duration of CDHWs in days) was 17 days. Furthermore, the occurrence rate of tmax was 96.67%, and the AH (CDHWs' accumulated heat) had a rate of 97.78%, which, upon examination of the spatial trend pattern, accounted for the largest increase in terms of area. We also found that the TAH (CDHWs' average temperature anomalies, SPEI < −0.5) shows obvious seasonality, with the increases in winter and spring being significantly greater than the increases in summer and autumn. The intensity of the CDHWs was stronger than that of a single extreme event, the temperature anomaly was higher than the average of 0.4–0.8 °C, and there was a north–south spatial pattern across the study region. In eastern and northwestern Central Asia, the AH and heatwaves (SPEI < −0.5) increased by 15–30 times per year on average. During the transition from the base period to the reference period, CDHWs increased by 25%, and the number of dry days prior to the CDHWs decreased by 7.35 days. The conclusion of our study can provide a theoretical basis for coping with climate change in arid zones. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To avoid the potential adverse impacts of climate change from global warming, it is suggested that the target of net zero emissions should be reached by this mid-century. Thailand is aiming to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050. Since electricity generation is one of the largest producers of carbon dioxide emission, the associated emissions must be greatly reduced to achieve the targets mentioned above. Thus, new generation expansion plans must be well developed. This paper discusses the development of generation expansion plans considering Thailand's latest policies along with enhancement of the existing multi-period linear programming model, allowing new electricity generation technologies having low emissions, e.g., solar PV with battery and hydrogen blending in natural gas, to be integrated into generation expansion planning. Then, four generation expansion plans with different levels of hydrogen blending in natural gas are proposed and discussed. It is found that Thailand can achieve carbon neutrality by 2050 by promoting more use of renewable energy altogether with trade-off between land for solar PV installation and amount of hydrogen blended in natural gas. The lesson learned from this study provides crucial information about possible pathways to achieve carbon neutrality in the electricity sector for policy makers in other countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As awareness grows of global warming and ecological degradation, words such as "climate anxiety", and "eco-anxiety" enter our vocabularies, describing the impact of climate change on human mental health and spiritual wellbeing. Distress over climate change disproportionately impacts children, who also are more susceptible to the broader health, economic, and social effects brought about by environmental harm. In this paper, I explore children's vulnerability to climate change and climate anxiety through the lens of ecofeminist practical theology. Ecofeminism brings the liberatory concerns of feminist theologies into engagement with those theologies focused on the life of the planet. Drawing on ecofeminism, practical theology must continue and deepen its own ecological conversion, and practical theologies of childhood must take seriously the work of making an ecological home, oikos, in which children are embedded as a part of the wider ecology that includes the more-than-human world. This requires foregrounding religious education with children toward the inhabitance of the earth in good and just ways. However, these theologies also must address children's lived realities of increased anxiety over planetary changes that endanger life through practices of spiritual care with children that engage and support them in their distress toward participatory empowerment for change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Free riding incentives make it difficult to control climate change. To improve the chances of the Paris Agreement's ambitious goal, many nations are forming scientific networks in carbon capture and storage (CCS). These networks take many forms (bilateral, hub-and-spoke, and multilateral). Studies of social interactions among scientists demonstrate that research networks are limited because of relational issues, such as lack of trust. This paper provides a rationale for the formation of various types of international CCS networks and examines their impacts on climate change. Our concept of stability focuses on Nash equilibria that are immune to coalitional deviations in overlapping networks. Players may belong to various research networks. A particular research network is a climate club. We show that in the absence of top-down coordination in clubs, the type of global network that forms depends on relational attrition. The complex task is to mitigate free riding while enhancing trust. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

For some time, there has been a slow but gradual rise in the average temperature of the entire globe, a "global warming", in fact, the result of human and natural processes that have been producing this phenomenon for decades. Since they are not directly perceived by individuals, these processes and their effects have been ignored for a long time, or at least not considered to be immediately harmful and dangerous. Global warming does not depend so much on solar radiation as it does on the greenhouse effect deriving from the continuous emission, by human activities and natural events, of greenhouse gases that accumulate in the atmosphere and form a barrier to the dispersion of heat produced by solar radiation. A good number of models exists to explain how global warming is produced, which are technical in nature and consider the production of greenhouse gases as the most important cause; however, they do not always analyze and justify the reasons for such emissions. Following the logic, language and methods of Senge's systems thinking, the paper aims to present a general model, the GEAM—qualitative in nature, but rational and coherent—for highlighting the interacting factors that give rise to and maintain global warming. This model constitutes a reference framework to identify possible "strategic areas" within which to identify man-made "artificial" and "natural" factors that can control the phenomenon and to order the countless ideas and interventions that different nations carry out individually to control global warming. The model presented is qualitative in nature and does not allow immediate calculations or forecasts to be performed. However, it could guide in-depth scientific research in generating accurate forecasts and simulation using the tools of systems dynamics. In conclusion, understanding how global warming is created and if and how it could be controlled is the aim of this work. Finally, I want to note that the purpose of this work is not to analyze the technical aspects of the phenomenon of global warming, or to deepen the measures and actions to contrast it, but to provide a "general model of description and understanding" of the phenomenon using logic and language of the Systems Thinking Approach (according to Peter's Senge and Piero Mella), with the aim of highlighting three fundamental strategic areas for countering the phenomenon and four uncontrollable phenomena, triggered by global warming itself, which can make strategic control difficult. Furthermore, I highlight the role played by the world population, understood both quantitatively as a number and qualitatively as a level of economic development, in the production of global warming. Lastly, I observe how the different strategic actions that nations can, indeed must, implement to stem global warming are systematically interconnected and interacting; however, these interactions can produce unknown effects and consequences that must be carefully researched and evaluated—encouraged, if positive, reduced or eliminated if negative. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The warming observed over the past summers since 2000 is unprecedented in climate records in Europe and especially in France. Extreme temperatures and heat spells were often analyzed in the literature by applying extreme value theory but rarely in a non-stationary (NS) framework and duration modeling is often excluded. For a modern risk-based approach, it is important to have knowledge of the duration, magnitude, and frequency of occurrence of heat spells in a climate variability and change context. Yet, despite their obvious importance, teleconnections and associated climate indices (CIs) have often been excluded from heat spell modelling. The notion of duration is also not easily interpretable in a frequency analysis and can even be subtle, especially in a NS context. In this study, we used time-varying statistical distributions with parameters conditional on covariates representing the time and CIs. The daily maximum temperatures (DMTs) observed at the Orange and Dijon stations in France were used as a case study. This paper highlights a possible relationship between some large-scale climate patterns and the heat spells in France. Overall, the results suggest that considering the combined effect of global warming and these patterns in NS models is useful for a more appropriate characterization of the hazard heat spells in France. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Our understanding of the time variability of intense cyclones in the Mediterranean region is still lacking despite its importance for the long-term forecast of climate anomalies. This study examines the month-to-month variability and predictability of cyclones, the intensity of which exceeded the 75th percentile (intense cyclones) and the 95th percentile (extreme cyclones), over the Western and Eastern Mediterranean. The locations of cyclones were obtained by applying the method of M. Yu. Bardin on the 6-hourly 1000 hPa geopotential height data from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis for the period 1951–2017 (67 years). It was shown that annual frequencies of cyclones were higher in the Western Mediterranean due to the contribution of spring and autumn; monthly averages were higher in the Eastern Mediterranean in December/January–March for intense/extreme cyclones. In the context of global warming, no linear trends significant at the 90% confidence level were found in the variability of intense and extreme cyclones, except for a positive trend in autumn extreme cyclones over the Eastern Mediterranean. The time series of cyclones in both parts of the Mediterranean were characterized by a pronounced interannual variability with a noticeable decadal modulation. According to spectral analysis, these interannual periods were multiples of 2–3 years corresponding to the main global teleconnection patterns. Seasonally, the most energy was concentrated in winter spectra; spring and autumn spectra had lower comparable magnitudes. The correlation analysis between the frequency of cyclones and the indices of the main atmospheric patterns showed that the main synchronous patterns for intense and extreme Mediterranean cyclones in September–April were the Mediterranean Oscillation (with the opposite signs for the Western and Eastern Mediterranean), Scandinavia pattern (positive correlation), and East Atlantic Oscillation (negative correlation). Additional important synchronous teleconnection patterns for some months were the Arctic Oscillation and East Atlantic/West Russia pattern for the Western Mediterranean, and the Polar/Eurasia pattern and Tropical Northern Hemisphere pattern for the Eastern Mediterranean. The outcome of this paper was the use of an artificial neural network model with inputs of global teleconnection indices both in the atmosphere and ocean to describe the temporal variability of the frequency of intense cyclones in the Western and Eastern Mediterranean. The predictability of intense cyclones was shown with the possibility of forecasts with a lead time of 0, 2, 4, and 6 months for the Western Mediterranean in October, January, February, April, and May, and for the Eastern Mediterranean in January, February, March, April, and May. One of the applications of this model may be in forecasting the evolution of the monthly frequency of cyclones with a lead time of 2 to 6 months. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]