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This paper explored the effectiveness of ensemble performance on the development of adolescent's life skills. An explorative qualitative study investigated young musicians' self-perception about the benefits and challenges of learning and playing music together. A convenience sampling technique was adopted for interviewing 15 adolescents (12–18 years old) who participated in a long-term music education programme led by a charity in the North-West of England. The data were analysed using NVivo, employing a thematic analysis approach. Two main themes emerged from the analyses: (1) the main benefits of playing and learning in an ensemble: the development of music and life skills; (2) the challenges experienced by the musicians learning in the ensemble. The findings suggest that participants were conscious of the positive effects of playing in an ensemble on their lives. This extended beyond merely learning a musical instrument, i.e. acquiring music skills. In particular, young musicians recognised they had developed greater self-confidence and cognitive skills such as critical thinking and self-awareness. Primarily, they developed effective communication and interpersonal skills. At the same time, these young musicians recognised they had to face challenges related to the process of learning music in an ensemble, such as managing emotions of frustration and adapting to different music learning styles and techniques. Finally, suggestions are made for the implementation and evaluation of future projects to explore the impact and effectiveness of classical music programmes, with a particular emphasis on ensemble-based initiatives and their influence on life skills. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Childhood, adolescent and young adult (CAYA) cancer survivors are vulnerable to adverse late-effects. For CAYA cancer survivors, tobacco smoking is the most important preventable cause of ill-health and early death. Yet, effective strategies to support smoking cessation in this group are lacking. The PRISM study aims to undertake multi-method formative research to explore the need for, and if appropriate, inform the future development of an evidence-based and theory-informed tobacco smoking cessation intervention for CAYA cancer survivors. Materials and methods: PRISM involves three phases of: 1) an environmental scan using multiple strategies to identify and examine a) smoking cessation interventions for CAYA cancer survivors that are published in the international literature and b) current smoking cessation services in England that may be available to, or tailorable to, CAYA cancer survivors; 2) a qualitative study involving semi-structured interviews with CAYA cancer survivors (aged 16–29 years and who are current or recent ex-smokers and/or current vapers) to explore their views and experiences of smoking, smoking cessation and vaping; and 3) stakeholder workshops with survivors, healthcare professionals and other stakeholders to consider the potential for a smoking cessation intervention for CAYA cancer survivors and what such an intervention would need to target and change. Findings will be disseminated to patient groups, healthcare professionals and researchers, through conference presentations, journal papers, plain English summaries and social media. Discussion: PRISM will explore current delivery of, perceived need for, and barriers and facilitators to, smoking cessation advice and support to CAYA cancer survivors from the perspective of both survivors and healthcare professionals. A key strength of PRISM is the user involvement throughout the study and the additional exploration of survivors' views on vaping, a behaviour which often co-occurs with smoking. PRISM is the first step in the development of a person-centred, evidence- and theory-based smoking cessation intervention for CAYA cancer survivors who smoke, which if effective, will reduce morbidity and mortality in the CAYA cancer survivor population. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: The aim of this paper is to investigate what factors are associated to cardiovascular disease and what differences exists between Asians living in the UK (from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing) and the Asians living in India (from the Longitudinal Ageing Study in India). Methods: Logistic regression was used to investigate how demographic and physical performance factors were associated with cardiovascular disease using data from Wave 6 of the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing and Wave 1 of the Longitudinal Study of Ageing in India, with the main variable of interest being country of residence, Asians in England or Asians in India. Results: A total of 83,997 participants were included in the analyses. In the primary analysis, 73,396 participants from LASI were compared to 171 Asians in ELSA. After adjusting for age, blood pressure, resting heart rate, sex, waist circumference, gait, handgrip strength and standing balance, there was a statistically significant difference for the outcome of CVD between Whites ELSA (reference) and the participants of LASI (odds ratio = 0.77; 95% confidence interval = 0.60 to 0.99). There were no significant differences in CVD between the LASI participants, Asian ELSA, and the Non-White but not Asian ELSA groups. Discussion: No difference was found between Asians that live in India compared to ethnic minorities living in England, including Asians, after adjusting for confounders, but was found between Whites in ELSA compared to LASI participants. A key limitation was the massive disparity in sample sizes between the ELSA subgroups and LASI. Further work is required where comparable sample sizes and longitudinal analyses allow trends to be identified and to investigate the factors associated with the difference in CVD between two similar ethnicities living in distinct locations. Conclusion: After adjusting for risk factors, there was no difference in CVD between localised Asians and the ethnic minorities in the UK, but there was a difference between the majority ethnicities in the respective countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Although both the analysis of regional culture and urbanisation are long-standing preoccupations in geography, few studies have considered the relationship between the two, the former traditionally being a topic in cultural geography, while the latter is usually interpreted and analysed as a process in economic geography. Taking evidence from the 1851–1911 censuses of England and Wales, this article analyses individual migration paths to identify stable regions of human interaction by applying a sophisticated community-detection algorithm. By accurately mapping the regions within which the majority of migration occurred between 1851 and 1911 and arguing that the stability of these geographies is evidence of more than just mutable communities but rather of persistent regional cultures, this article responds to previous studies that have sought to identify the cultural provinces of England and Wales. Indeed, by demonstrating that the regions bear a striking resemblance to those that have long been hypothesised as being distinct cultural provinces of England and Wales, this article empirically corroborates their existence. In order to further demonstrate that the regions constitute cultural provinces, this paper incorporates these boundaries into a spatial interaction model (SIM). The results of the SIM not only shows that the boundaries between the regions limited the number of migrants that crossed them–over and above that explained by control variables–and therefore represented the boundaries of cultural provinces, demarcating discrete regions of human interaction–but that such boundaries disproportionately restricted rural-urban migrants, thereby slowing the pace at which England and Wales urbanised. This paper therefore demonstrates that urbanisation should not only be interpreted as only an economic phenomenon, but a cultural one also, and that if urbanisation is to be fully understood, individuals' attachment to place as a component of their identity, ought to be formally incorporated into models of migration. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The prevalence of dyslexia identification has increased significantly over the last two decades. Yet there is debate over whether there are distinct biological and cognitive differences between those with literacy difficulties and the subgroup of people identified as dyslexic. This is the first paper that provides evidence for this ongoing debate by investigating the socio-demographic factors, outside biology and cognition, that predict whether a child is identified as dyslexic in the UK. Using secondary data from the UK's Millennium Cohort Study, this paper examines the socio-demographic factors that predict whether a child's teacher identifies them as dyslexic at age 11. Gender, season of birth, socio-economic class and parental income are found to be significant predictors of the dyslexia label. Therefore, factors seemingly unrelated to the clinical aspects of dyslexia influence whether a child is identified as dyslexic in England and Wales. This suggests that label may not be evenly distributed across a population; furthermore, it may also indicate that resources for support may not be fairly allocated. The findings further support the argument that a 'dyslexic sub-group' within poor readers is created due to the impact of environmental factors. The results from this national-scale study thus questions the reliability, validity and moral integrity of the allocation of the dyslexia label across current education systems in the UK. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Obesity and rapid weight gain are established risk factors for noncommunicable diseases and have emerged as independent risk factors for severe disease following Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) infection. Restrictions imposed to reduce COVID-19 transmission resulted in profound societal changes that impacted many health behaviours, including physical activity and nutrition, associated with rate of weight gain. We investigated which clinical and sociodemographic characteristics were associated with rapid weight gain and the greatest acceleration in rate of weight gain during the pandemic among adults registered with an English National Health Service (NHS) general practitioner (GP) during the COVID-19 pandemic. Methods and findings: With the approval of NHS England, we used the OpenSAFELY platform inside TPP to conduct an observational cohort study of routinely collected electronic healthcare records. We investigated changes in body mass index (BMI) values recorded in English primary care between March 2015 and March 2022. We extracted data on 17,742,365 adults aged 18 to 90 years old (50.1% female, 76.1% white British) registered with an English primary care practice. We estimated individual rates of weight gain before (δ-prepandemic) and during (δ-pandemic) the pandemic and identified individuals with rapid weight gain (>0.5 kg/m2/year) in each period. We also estimated the change in rate of weight gain between the prepandemic and pandemic period (δ-change = δ-pandemic—δ-prepandemic) and defined extreme accelerators as the 10% of individuals with the greatest increase in their rate of weight gain (δ-change ≥1.84 kg/m2/year) between these periods. We estimated associations with these outcomes using multivariable logistic regression adjusted for age, sex, index of multiple deprivation (IMD), and ethnicity. P-values were generated in regression models. The median BMI of our study population was 27.8 kg/m2, interquartile range (IQR) [24.3, 32.1] in 2019 (March 2019 to February 2020) and 28.0 kg/m2, IQR [24.4, 32.6] in 2021. Rapid pandemic weight gain was associated with sex, age, and IMD. Male sex (male versus female: adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 0.76, 95% confidence interval (95% CI) [0.76, 0.76], p < 0.001), older age (e.g., 50 to 59 years versus 18 to 29 years: aOR 0.60, 95% CI [0.60, 0.61], p < 0.001]); and living in less deprived areas (least-deprived-IMD-quintile versus most-deprived: aOR 0.77, 95% CI [0.77, 0.78] p < 0.001) reduced the odds of rapid weight gain. Compared to white British individuals, all other ethnicities had lower odds of rapid pandemic weight gain (e.g., Indian versus white British: aOR 0.69, 95% CI [0.68, 0.70], p < 0.001). Long-term conditions (LTCs) increased the odds, with mental health conditions having the greatest effect (e.g., depression (aOR 1.18, 95% CI [1.17, 1.18], p < 0.001)). Similar characteristics increased odds of extreme acceleration in the rate of weight gain between the prepandemic and pandemic periods. However, changes in healthcare activity during the pandemic may have introduced new bias to the data. Conclusions: We found female sex, younger age, deprivation, white British ethnicity, and mental health conditions were associated with rapid pandemic weight gain and extreme acceleration in rate of weight gain between the prepandemic and pandemic periods. Our findings highlight the need to incorporate sociodemographic, physical, and mental health characteristics when formulating research, policies, and interventions targeting BMI in the period of post pandemic service restoration and in future pandemic planning. Miriam Samuel and team analyzed health records of 17 million adults in England, examining patterns of weight change before and during COVID-19 and identifying groups most prone to rapid weight gain. Author summary: Why was this study done?: Restrictions imposed during the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic may have led to lifestyle changes that are associated with weight gain. Some studies have suggested that women, younger adults (18 to 29 years), and those living in more deprived areas were at greatest risk of weight gain during the pandemic, but these were limited by small sample size. There are currently no large-scale analyses of how the pandemic impacted preexisting patterns of weight gain, and how this varied by sociodemographic and clinical characteristics. What did the researchers do and find?: We used data from the routinely collected health records of 17 million adults living in England to investigate patterns of weight change before and during the pandemic and describe which groups were most likely to have experienced unhealthy patterns of weight gain. We found that, among adults with measures of weight recorded in their healthcare records, women, younger adults (18 to 29 years), those living in the most deprived areas, and those of white British ethnicity were most likely to have gained weight rapidly before and during the pandemic. The same groups were also most likely to have experienced extreme acceleration in their rate of weight gain during the pandemic. Almost all the long-term conditions (LTCs) increased the risk of unhealthy patterns of weight gain, with mental health conditions, such as depression, having the greatest estimated effect. What do these findings mean?: The COVID-19 pandemic appears to have had the greatest impact on women, young adults, and those living in the most deprived areas in terms of unhealthy patterns of weight gain. We present, to our knowledge, new evidence that people with mental health conditions were more likely to have unhealthy patterns of weight gain during the pandemic, highlighting the need to consider sociodemographic, physical, and mental health characteristics in research, policies, and interventions around weight. We recommend that future pandemic planning should consider how to mitigate the unequal indirect impact of a pandemic on patterns of weight gain to prevent preexisting health inequalities being further exacerbated. Changes in healthcare activity during the pandemic affected patterns of weight monitoring in primary care, which may have introduced new bias to the analyses. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: The need to improve the quality of community mental health services for people with Complex Emotional Needs (CEN) (who may have a diagnosis of 'personality disorder') is recognised internationally and has become a renewed policy priority in England. Such improvement requires positive engagement from clinicians across the service system, and their perspectives on achieving good practice need to be understood. Aim: To synthesise qualitative evidence on clinician perspectives on what constitutes good practice, and what helps or prevents it being achieved, in community mental health services for people with CEN. Methods: Six bibliographic databases were searched for studies published since 2003 and supplementary citation tracking was conducted. Studies that used any recognised qualitative method and reported clinician experiences and perspectives on community-based mental health services for adults with CEN were eligible for this review, including generic and specialist settings. Meta-synthesis was used to generate and synthesise over-arching themes across included studies. Results: Twenty-nine papers were eligible for inclusion, most with samples given a 'personality disorder' diagnosis. Six over-arching themes were identified: 1. The use and misuse of diagnosis; 2. The patient journey into services: nowhere to go; 3. Therapeutic relationships: connection and distance; 4. The nature of treatment: not doing too much or too little; 5. Managing safety issues and crises: being measured and proactive; 6. Clinician and wider service needs: whose needs are they anyway? The overall quality of the evidence was moderate. Discussion: Through summarising the literature on clinician perspectives on good practice for people with CEN, over-arching priorities were identified on which there appears to be substantial consensus. In their focus on needs such as for a long-term perspective on treatment journeys, high quality and consistent therapeutic relationships, and a balanced approach to safety, clinician priorities are mainly congruent with those found in studies on service user views. They also identify clinician needs that should be met for good care to be provided, including for supervision, joint working and organisational support. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Pragmatic challenges remain in the monitoring and return to play (RTP) decisions following suspected Sports Related Concussion (SRC). Reliance on traditional approaches (pen and paper) means players readiness for RTP is often based on self-reported symptom recognition as a marker for full physiological recovery. Non-digital approaches also limit opportunity for robust data analysis which may hinder understanding of the interconnected nature and relationships in deficit recovery. Digital approaches may provide more objectivity to measure and monitor impairments in SRC. Crucially, there is dearth of protocols for SRC assessment and digital devices have yet to be tested concurrently (multimodal) in SRC rugby union assessment. Here we propose a multimodal protocol for digital assessment in SRC, which could be used to enhance traditional sports concussion assessment approaches. Methods: We aim to use a repeated measures observational study utilising a battery of multimodal assessment tools (symptom, cognitive, visual, motor). We aim to recruit 200 rugby players (male n≈100 and female n≈100) from University Rugby Union teams and local amateur rugby clubs in the North East of England. The multimodal battery assessment used in this study will compare metrics between digital methods and against traditional assessment. Conclusion: This paper outlines a protocol for a multimodal approach for the use of digital technologies to augment traditional approaches to SRC, which may better inform RTP in rugby union. Findings may shed light on new ways of working with digital tools in SRC. Multimodal approaches may enhance understanding of the interconnected nature of impairments and provide insightful, more objective assessment and RTP in SRC. Clinical trial registration: NCT04938570. https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/results?cond=NCT04938570&term=&cntry=&state=&city=&dist= [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives: Many people with chronic pain cannot work, while working despite chronic pain is linked to absenteeism and presenteeism and a host of other deleterious effects. This disproportionately affects older adults, who are closer to retirement, while the exact relationship between pain and work cessation as well as retirement among older adults is not known. We explore longitudinally the relationship between chronic pain and the risk of ceasing work and entering retirement. Methods: Data from 1156 individuals 50 years or older living in England taking part in the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing were used in this study. Cox proportional hazards regression analyses were used to examine the nature of the relationship between musculoskeletal pain and work cessation as well as retirement longitudinally over the course of fourteen years. Results: Suffering from frequent musculoskeletal pain was associated with an increased risk of ceasing work and retiring at an earlier age, as did work dissatisfaction, higher perceived social status, female gender, and not receiving the recognition they felt they deserved in their job. Severity of depressive symptoms, psychosocial job demands, decision authority, and social support did not influence the age at which participants reported work cessation or retirement. Conclusions: Frequent musculoskeletal pain may increase the risk of earlier work exit and earlier retirement. Further research should establish the mechanisms and decision making involved in leaving the workforce in people with frequent musculoskeletal pain. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Stroke early supported discharge (ESD) involves the co-ordinated transfer of care from hospital to home. The quality of communication processes between professionals delivering ESD and external stakeholders may have a role to play in streamlining this process. We explored how communication and information exchange were achieved and influenced the hospital-to-home transition and the delivery quality of ESD, from healthcare professionals' perspectives. Methods: Six ESD case study sites in England were purposively selected. Under a realist approach, we conducted interviews and focus groups with 117 staff members, including a cross-section of the multidisciplinary team, service managers and commissioners. Results: Great variation was observed between services in the type of communication processes they employed and how organised these efforts were. Effective communication between ESD team members and external stakeholders was identified as a key mechanism driving the development of collaborative and trusting relationships and promoting coordinated care transitions. Cross-boundary working arrangements with inpatient services helped clarify the role and remit of ESD, contributing to timely hospital discharge and response from ESD teams. Staff perceived honest and individualised information provision as key to effectively prepare stroke survivors and families for care transitions and promote rehabilitation engagement. In designing and implementing ESD, early stakeholder involvement ensured the services' fit in the local pathway and laid the foundations for communication and partnership working going forward. Conclusions: Findings highlighted the interdependency between services delivering ESD and local stroke care pathways. Maintaining good communication and engagement with key stakeholders may help achieve a streamlined hospital discharge process and timely delivery of ESD. ESD services should actively manage communication processes with external partners. A shared cross-service communication strategy to guide the provision of information along to continuum of stroke care is required. Findings may inform efforts towards the delivery of better coordinated stroke care pathways. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The occurrence of a range of health outcomes following myocardial infarction (MI) is unknown. Therefore, this study aimed to determine the long-term risk of major health outcomes following MI and generate sociodemographic stratified risk charts in order to inform care recommendations in the post-MI period and underpin shared decision making. Methods and findings: This nationwide cohort study includes all individuals aged ≥18 years admitted to one of 229 National Health Service (NHS) Trusts in England between 1 January 2008 and 31 January 2017 (final follow-up 27 March 2017). We analysed 11 non-fatal health outcomes (subsequent MI and first hospitalisation for heart failure, atrial fibrillation, cerebrovascular disease, peripheral arterial disease, severe bleeding, renal failure, diabetes mellitus, dementia, depression, and cancer) and all-cause mortality. Of the 55,619,430 population of England, 34,116,257 individuals contributing to 145,912,852 hospitalisations were included (mean age 41.7 years (standard deviation [SD 26.1]); n = 14,747,198 (44.2%) male). There were 433,361 individuals with MI (mean age 67.4 years [SD 14.4)]; n = 283,742 (65.5%) male). Following MI, all-cause mortality was the most frequent event (adjusted cumulative incidence at 9 years 37.8% (95% confidence interval [CI] [37.6,37.9]), followed by heart failure (29.6%; 95% CI [29.4,29.7]), renal failure (27.2%; 95% CI [27.0,27.4]), atrial fibrillation (22.3%; 95% CI [22.2,22.5]), severe bleeding (19.0%; 95% CI [18.8,19.1]), diabetes (17.0%; 95% CI [16.9,17.1]), cancer (13.5%; 95% CI [13.3,13.6]), cerebrovascular disease (12.5%; 95% CI [12.4,12.7]), depression (8.9%; 95% CI [8.7,9.0]), dementia (7.8%; 95% CI [7.7,7.9]), subsequent MI (7.1%; 95% CI [7.0,7.2]), and peripheral arterial disease (6.5%; 95% CI [6.4,6.6]). Compared with a risk-set matched population of 2,001,310 individuals, first hospitalisation of all non-fatal health outcomes were increased after MI, except for dementia (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 1.01; 95% CI [0.99,1.02];p = 0.468) and cancer (aHR 0.56; 95% CI [0.56,0.57];p < 0.001). The study includes data from secondary care only—as such diagnoses made outside of secondary care may have been missed leading to the potential underestimation of the total burden of disease following MI. Conclusions: In this study, up to a third of patients with MI developed heart failure or renal failure, 7% had another MI, and 38% died within 9 years (compared with 35% deaths among matched individuals). The incidence of all health outcomes, except dementia and cancer, was higher than expected during the normal life course without MI following adjustment for age, sex, year, and socioeconomic deprivation. Efforts targeted to prevent or limit the accrual of chronic, multisystem disease states following MI are needed and should be guided by the demographic-specific risk charts derived in this study. Using hospital records of 34 million adults admitted to hospitals in England, Marlous Hall and team examine the long-term risk of major health outcomes following myocardial infarction. Author summary: Why was this study done?: Myocardial infarction (MI; heart attack) can have major long-term impact on individuals and result in a wide range of further health conditions. Existing studies have focussed on determining the short-term risk of a second heart attack, stroke, or major bleeding, but research describing the long-term risk of major health outcomes for specific age, sex, and deprivation groups was lacking. Nationally representative and robust information of a wide range of long-term health outcomes following a heart attack is critical for the development of treatment recommendations, which take account of an individuals' specific risk. What did the researchers do and find?: From the population of 56 million adults in England, we analysed hospital records for 34 million adults admitted to hospital (constituting 145 million admission records) to investigate the long-term health outcomes following a heart attack compared with individuals without a heart attack. Of 433,361 individuals with a heart attack, up to a third developed heart failure or renal failure, 7% had further heart attacks, and 38% died within the 9-year study period. Heart failure, atrial fibrillation, stroke, peripheral arterial disease, severe bleeding, renal failure, diabetes, and depression occurred more frequently for people who had a heart attack compared with those who did not, but the risk of cancer was lower overall and the risk of dementia did not differ overall. What do these findings mean?: Efforts should be made to prevent or limit the development of long-term health outcomes that follow a heart attack—the likelihood of which differ depending on the age, sex, and deprivation of an individual. These findings are based on the full population of adults admitted to hospital in England, address limitations of previous studies, and can be used to inform preventative strategies tailored to specific individuals surviving a heart attack. The study was limited to hospitalisation data only—therefore, some diagnoses made outside of hospital may have been missed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Social care is vital to quality of life for people with young onset dementia and their families. Yet care is hugely variable, frequently lacking and poorly coordinated. We aim to establish current practice in English social care for people with young onset dementia and co-produce evidence-based recommendations and resources for improvement. Methods and analysis: In Work-Package 1, we will gather qualitative data from 25 people with young onset dementia and/or main supporters residing in England. We will ask them about their experiences of social care (broadly defined, including independent and voluntary sector provision) and suggestions for improvement. In Work-Package 2, we will conduct a short on-line survey with a wide range of staff with a role in adult social care in England. We will find out about current awareness, knowledge and practice and suggestions for improvements. Quantitative and qualitative analysis will provide a picture of current practice. In Work-Package 3, we will use convergence analysis to synthesise the findings from Work-Packages 1 and 2 and present the findings to a stakeholder workshop, to identify feasible priorities for improvement. We will establish what is already known about good practice relating to these key priorities using a scoping review and interviews with professionals. This knowledge will then feed into the co-production of resources and recommendations with key stakeholders to improve social care for people with young onset dementia and their families. Discussion: This study seeks to address a gap in our understanding of social care provision for people with young onset dementia and develop recommendations and practical resources for improvements. The findings will help people with young onset dementia and supporters to receive higher quality social care. Trial registration: Study registration number:ISRCTN10653250. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Delivering care to growing numbers of patients with increasingly 'complex' needs is currently compromised by a system designed to treat patients within organizational clinical specialties, making this difficult to reconfigure to fit care to needs. Problematic experiences of people with cognitive impairment(s) admitted to hospitals with a hip fracture, exemplify the complex challenges that result if their care is not tailored. This study explored whether a flexible, multicomponent intervention, adapting services to the needs of this patient group, could be implemented in acute hospital settings. Methods: We used action research with case study design to introduce the intervention using a Plan-Do-Study-Act (PDSA) model to three different hospital sites (cases) across England. The qualitative data for this paper was researcher-generated (notes from observations and teleconference meetings) and change agent-generated (action plans and weekly reflective reports of change agents' activities). Normalization Process Theory (NPT) was used to analyze and explain the work of interacting actors in implementing and then normalizing (embedding) the intervention across contexts and times. Data analysis was abductive, generating inductive codes then identified with NPT constructs. Across the three cases, change agents had to work through numerous implementation challenges: needing to make sense of the intervention package, the PDSA model as implementation method, and their own role as change agents and to orientate these within their action context (coherence). They had to work to encourage colleagues to invest in these changes (cognitive participation) and find ways to implement the intervention by mobilising changes (collective action). Finally, they created strategies for clinical routines to continue to self-review, reconfiguring actions and future plans to enable the intervention to be sustained (reflexive monitoring). Conclusions: Successful implementation of the (PERFECT-ER) intervention requires change agents to recognize and engage with local values, and then to enable its fit with practice and wider contextual goals. A context of constant change fragments normalization. Thus, sustaining practice change over time is fragile and requires change agents to continue a recursive two-way sense-making process. This enables implementation and normalization to re-energize and overcome barriers to change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With increasing costs of healthcare in England and Wales following the COVID-19 pandemic, finding alternatives to traditional medical interventions is more important than ever. Social prescribing provides a way of addressing health and well-being through using non-medical methods that may help relieve costs to the NHS. Evaluating interventions, such as social prescribing, which have high social (but not easily quantifiable) value, can be problematic. Social return on investment (SROI) is a method of assigning monetary values to both social value as well as traditional assets, so provides a way of evaluating social prescribing initiatives. This protocol outlines the steps that will be taken in a systematic review of the SROI literature surrounding social prescribing-type integrated health and social care interventions based in the community in England and Wales. Online academic databases such as PubMed Central, ASSIA and Web of Science will be searched, as will grey literature sources such as Google Scholar, the Wales School for Social Prescribing Research (WSSPR) and Social Value UK. Titles and abstracts from the articles returned by the searches will be reviewed by one researcher. Those selected for full text review will be independently reviewed and compared by two researchers. Where the researchers disagree a third reviewer will help resolve any differences. Information collected will include identifying stakeholder groups, assessing the quality of SROI analyses, identifying intended and unintended changes of social prescribing interventions, and comparing social prescribing initiatives in terms of SROI costs and benefits. Quality assessment will be independently conducted on the selected papers by two researchers. The researchers will discuss to obtain consensus. Where there is disagreement, a third researcher will resolve these cases. A pre-existing quality framework will be developed and used to assess the quality of the literature. Protocol registration Prospero registration number:CRD42022318911. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Detail is a double edged sword in epidemiological modelling. The inclusion of mechanistic detail in models of highly complex systems has the potential to increase realism, but it also increases the number of modelling assumptions, which become harder to check as their possible interactions multiply. In a major study of the Covid-19 epidemic in England, Knock et al. (2020) fit an age structured SEIR model with added health service compartments to data on deaths, hospitalization and test results from Covid-19 in seven English regions for the period March to December 2020. The simplest version of the model has 684 states per region. One main conclusion is that only full lockdowns brought the pathogen reproduction number, R, below one, with R ≫ 1 in all regions on the eve of March 2020 lockdown. We critically evaluate the Knock et al. epidemiological model, and the semi-causal conclusions made using it, based on an independent reimplementation of the model designed to allow relaxation of some of its strong assumptions. In particular, Knock et al. model the effect on transmission of both non-pharmaceutical interventions and other effects, such as weather, using a piecewise linear function, b(t), with 12 breakpoints at selected government announcement or intervention dates. We replace this representation by a smoothing spline with time varying smoothness, thereby allowing the form of b(t) to be substantially more data driven, and we check that the corresponding smoothness assumption is not driving our results. We also reset the mean incubation time and time from first symptoms to hospitalisation, used in the model, to values implied by the papers cited by Knock et al. as the source of these quantities. We conclude that there is no sound basis for using the Knock et al. model and their analysis to make counterfactual statements about the number of deaths that would have occurred with different lockdown timings. However, if fits of this epidemiological model structure are viewed as a reasonable basis for inference about the time course of incidence and R, then without very strong modelling assumptions, the pathogen reproduction number was probably below one, and incidence in substantial decline, some days before either of the first two English national lockdowns. This result coincides with that obtained by more direct attempts to reconstruct incidence. Of course it does not imply that lockdowns had no effect, but it does suggest that other non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) may have been much more effective than Knock et al. imply, and that full lockdowns were probably not the cause of R dropping below one. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aims and objectives: This paper aims to improve understanding of factors that contribute to persistent ethnic disparities in patient satisfaction in England. The specific objectives are to (i) examine ethnic differences in patient satisfaction with their primary care in England; and (ii) establish factors that contribute to ethnic differences in patient satisfaction. Data and methods: The study is based on secondary analysis of recent General Practitioner Patient Survey (GPPS) datasets of 2019, 2020 and 2021. Descriptive bivariate analysis was used to examine ethnic differences in patient satisfaction across the three years. This was followed with multilevel linear regression, with General Practice (GP) at level-1 and Clinical Commissioning Group (CCG) at level-2 to identify factors contributing to ethnic differences in patient satisfaction. Results: The findings show consistent negative correlations between the proportion of patients reporting good (very or fairly good) overall experience and each of the ethnic minority groups. Further examination of the distribution of patient satisfaction by ethnicity, based on combined ethnic minority groups, depicted a clear negative association between ethnic minority group and patient satisfaction at both GP and CCG levels. Multilevel regression analysis identified several service-related factors (especially ease of using GP website and being treated with care and concern) that largely explained the ethnic differences in patient satisfaction. Of all factors relating to patient characteristics considered in the analysis, none was significant after controlling for GP service-related factors. Conclusions: Ethnic minority patients in England continue to consistently report lower satisfaction with their primary health care in recent years. This is largely attributable to supply (service related) rather than demand (patient characteristics) factors. These findings have important implications for health care system policy and practice at both GP and CCG levels in England. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The COVID-19 pandemic has had high mortality rates in the elderly and frail worldwide, particularly in care homes. This is driven by the difficulty of isolating care homes from the wider community, the large population sizes within care facilities (relative to typical households), and the age/frailty of the residents. To quantify the mortality risk posed by disease, the case fatality risk (CFR) is an important tool. This quantifies the proportion of cases that result in death. Throughout the pandemic, CFR amongst care home residents in England has been monitored closely. To estimate CFR, we apply both novel and existing methods to data on deaths in care homes, collected by Public Health England and the Care Quality Commission. We compare these different methods, evaluating their relative strengths and weaknesses. Using these methods, we estimate temporal trends in the instantaneous CFR (at both daily and weekly resolutions) and the overall CFR across the whole of England, and dis-aggregated at regional level. We also investigate how the CFR varies based on age and on the type of care required, dis-aggregating by whether care homes include nursing staff and by age of residents. This work has contributed to the summary of measures used for monitoring the UK epidemic. Author summary: During an epidemic, the case fatality risk (CFR), i.e. the probability that an individual dies after testing positive for a disease, is a key parameter informing the public health response. However, calculating the CFR is not trivial, since there are cases who may die in the future but have not died yet. Therefore, statistical methods are required to correct for the distribution of times between testing positive and dying. In this paper, we derive multiple methods, some existing and some novel, within a consistent methodological framework. This allows us to understand how these different approaches are related and their relative strengths and weaknesses. During the COVID-19 pandemic, care homes have been particularly affected, due to the high risk of COVID-19-associated mortality in the frail and elderly. We apply our CFR methods to data from English care homes to analyse changes in the care home CFR throughout the pandemic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: Medication errors are an important cause of morbidity and mortality. The pharmacist-led IT-based intervention to reduce clinically important medication errors (PINCER) intervention was shown to reduce medication errors when tested in a cluster randomised controlled trial and when implemented across one region of England. Now that it has been rolled out nationally, and to enhance findings from evaluations with staff and stakeholders, this paper is the first to report patients' perceived acceptability on the use of PINCER in primary care and proposes suggestions on how delivery of PINCER related care could be delivered in a way that is acceptable and not unnecessarily burdensome. Methods: A total of 46 participants living with long-term health conditions who had experience of medication reviews and/or monitoring were recruited through patient participant groups and social media. Semi-structured, qualitative interviews and focus groups were conducted face-to-face or via telephone. A thematic analysis was conducted and findings mapped to the constructs of the Theoretical Framework of Acceptability (TFA). Results: Two themes were identified and interpreted within the most relevant TFA construct: Perceptions on the purpose and components of PINCER (Affective Attitude and Intervention Coherence) and Perceived patient implications (Burden and Self-efficacy). Overall perceptions on PINCER were positive with participants showing good understanding of the components. Access to medication reviews, which PINCER related care can involve, was reported to be limited and a lack of consistency in practitioners delivering reviews was considered challenging, as was lack of communication between primary care and other health-care providers. Patients thought it would be helpful if medication reviews and prescription renewal times were synchronised. Remote medication review consultations were more convenient for some but viewed as a barrier to communication by others. It was acknowledged that some patients may be more resistant to change and more willing to accept changes initiated by general practitioners. Conclusions: Participants found the concept of PINCER acceptable; however, acceptability could be improved if awareness on the role of primary care pharmacists is raised and patient-pharmacist relationships enhanced. Being transparent with communication and delivering streamlined and consistent but flexible PINCER related care is recommended. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding the scale of the threat posed by SARS-CoV2 B.1.1.529, or Omicron, variant formed a key problem in public health in the early part of 2022. Early evidence indicated that the variant was more transmissible and less severe than previous variants. As the virus was expected to spread quickly through the population of England, it was important that some understanding of the immunological landscape of the country was developed. This paper attempts to estimate the number of people with good immunity to the Omicron variant, defined as either recent infection with two doses of vaccine, or two doses of vaccine with a recent booster dose. To achieve this, we use a process of iterative proportional fitting to estimate the cell values of a contingency table, using national immunisation records and real-time model infection estimates as marginal values. Our results indicate that, despite the increased risk of immune evasion with the Omicron variant, a high proportion of England's population had good immunity to the virus, particularly in older age groups. However, low rates of immunity in younger populations may allow endemic infection to persist for some time. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The first year of the COVID-19 pandemic put considerable strain on healthcare systems worldwide. In order to predict the effect of the local epidemic on hospital capacity in England, we used a variety of data streams to inform the construction and parameterisation of a hospital progression model, EpiBeds, which was coupled to a model of the generalised epidemic. In this model, individuals progress through different pathways (e.g. may recover, die, or progress to intensive care and recover or die) and data from a partially complete patient-pathway line-list was used to provide initial estimates of the mean duration that individuals spend in the different hospital compartments. We then fitted EpiBeds using complete data on hospital occupancy and hospital deaths, enabling estimation of the proportion of individuals that follow the different clinical pathways, the reproduction number of the generalised epidemic, and to make short-term predictions of hospital bed demand. The construction of EpiBeds makes it straightforward to adapt to different patient pathways and settings beyond England. As part of the UK response to the pandemic, EpiBeds provided weekly forecasts to the NHS for hospital bed occupancy and admissions in England, Wales, Scotland, and Northern Ireland at national and regional scales. Author summary: COVID-19, the disease caused by SARS-CoV-2, leads to a high proportion of cases requiring admission to hospital. Coupled with the high burden of infections worldwide, this put substantial pressure on healthcare systems. To enable public health systems to cope with the high levels of demand, forecasting models are vital. These models enable public health managers to plan their workloads accordingly. Here, we developed EpiBeds, which combines an epidemic model with a model for patient flow through hospitals. By fitting this model to data from England, EpiBeds has been used to provide short-term forecasts of hospital admissions and bed demand weekly throughout the COVID-19 pandemic. In this paper, we describe the motivation behind the structure of EpiBeds, how the model is fitted to data, and report the estimates of the key parameters throughout the pandemic. We then evaluate the performance of EpiBeds by comparing generated forecasts to future data points, finding good agreement between the forecasts and data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: To explore COVID-19 vaccination uptake, facilitators and barriers in ethnically-diverse pregnant women. Design and setting: An anonymous quality improvement questionnaire survey exploring COVID-19 vaccination uptake, causes of vaccine hesitancy and trusted sources of information among pregnant women in two acute district general hospitals in England (Berkshire and Surrey) between 1.9.21 and 28.2.22. Population: 441 pregnant women attending routine antenatal clinic appointments. Methods: Consented pregnant women completed the survey either electronically using a QR code or on paper. Descriptive data were summarised and free text responses were thematically analysed. Results: 441 pregnant women, mean age 32 years (range 17–44), completed the survey. Twenty-six percent were from ethnic minority groups, and 31% had a co-morbid health condition. Most respondents (66.2%) had been vaccinated against COVID-19 with at least one dose (White British 71.9%, Asian 67.9%, White-other 63.6%, Black 33%). The most common reasons for not being vaccinated were concerns about effects on the unborn baby and future pregnancies, anxiety about possible adverse impact on the mother, not enough known about the vaccine, and lack of trust in vaccines. Comments included: "I'd rather not risk injecting the unknown into my body", and "I don't trust it." Although 23% used social media for information on COVID-19 vaccination, the most trusted sources were the patient's GP and midwife (43%) and official health-related websites such as NHS (39%). Conclusions: A third of these pregnant women had not been vaccinated against COVID-19. Trusted health professionals like midwives and GPs could have a crucial role in increasing vaccination uptake. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The population prevalence of multimorbidity (the existence of at least 2 or more long-term conditions [LTCs] in an individual) is increasing among young adults, particularly in minority ethnic groups and individuals living in socioeconomically deprived areas. In this study, we applied a data-driven approach to identify clusters of individuals who had an early onset multimorbidity in an ethnically and socioeconomically diverse population. We identified associations between clusters and a range of health outcomes. Methods and findings: Using linked primary and secondary care data from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink GOLD (CPRD GOLD), we conducted a cross-sectional study of 837,869 individuals with early onset multimorbidity (aged between 16 and 39 years old when the second LTC was recorded) registered with an English general practice between 2010 and 2020. The study population included 777,906 people of White ethnicity (93%), 33,915 people of South Asian ethnicity (4%), and 26,048 people of Black African/Caribbean ethnicity (3%). A total of 204 LTCs were considered. Latent class analysis stratified by ethnicity identified 4 clusters of multimorbidity in White groups and 3 clusters in South Asian and Black groups. We found that early onset multimorbidity was more common among South Asian (59%, 33,915) and Black (56% 26,048) groups compared to the White population (42%, 777,906). Latent class analysis revealed physical and mental health conditions that were common across all ethnic groups (i.e., hypertension, depression, and painful conditions). However, each ethnic group also presented exclusive LTCs and different sociodemographic profiles: In White groups, the cluster with the highest rates/odds of the outcomes was predominantly male (54%, 44,150) and more socioeconomically deprived than the cluster with the lowest rates/odds of the outcomes. On the other hand, South Asian and Black groups were more socioeconomically deprived than White groups, with a consistent deprivation gradient across all multimorbidity clusters. At the end of the study, 4% (34,922) of the White early onset multimorbidity population had died compared to 2% of the South Asian and Black early onset multimorbidity populations (535 and 570, respectively); however, the latter groups died younger and lost more years of life. The 3 ethnic groups each displayed a cluster of individuals with increased rates of primary care consultations, hospitalisations, long-term prescribing, and odds of mortality. Study limitations include the exclusion of individuals with missing ethnicity information, the age of diagnosis not reflecting the actual age of onset, and the exclusion of people from Mixed, Chinese, and other ethnic groups due to insufficient power to investigate associations between multimorbidity and health-related outcomes in these groups. Conclusions: These findings emphasise the need to identify, prevent, and manage multimorbidity early in the life course. Our work provides additional insights into the excess burden of early onset multimorbidity in those from socioeconomically deprived and diverse groups who are disproportionately and more severely affected by multimorbidity and highlights the need to ensure healthcare improvements are equitable. Fabiola Eto and co-workers study variations in comorbidity, service use and health outcomes by ethnicity and socioeconomic position, among people aged 16-39 years. Author summary: Why was this study done?: Most studies of multimorbidity focus on older adults, and only a few have investigated multimorbidity in younger populations. The prevalence of multimorbidity is increasing among young adults, particularly in minority ethnic groups and individuals living in socioeconomically deprived areas. There is evidence showing that individuals with socioeconomic vulnerability experience poorer health outcomes, such as lower quality healthcare provision, premature death, and higher mortality rates. The association between early onset multimorbidity and poor health outcomes in ethnically and socially diverse populations in England remains underinvestigated. What did the researchers do and find?: We used primary and secondary healthcare electronic health records from 837,869 individuals of White, South Asian, and Black African/Caribbean ethnicity in England with early onset of multimorbidity who were registered with an English general practice between 2010 and 2020. We found that the early onset of multimorbidity was more common among minority ethnic groups (59% and 56%, in the South Asian and Black populations, respectively) than in the White population (42%) living in the UK. South Asians and Black individuals with early onset multimorbidity died earlier than White individuals with early onset multimorbidity (52 and 48 years old in the median, respectively, versus 61 years old). South Asian and Black groups were more socioeconomically deprived than White groups, with a consistent deprivation gradient across all multimorbidity clusters. In White groups, the cluster of individuals with the highest rates/odds of the outcomes was more socioeconomically deprived than the cluster with the lowest rates/odds of the outcomes. What do these findings mean?: Our findings emphasise the need to identify, prevent, and manage multimorbidity early in the life course. Our work highlights the need to ensure that public health policies are equitable and reach those living in socioeconomic deprivation and minority ethnic groups who are disproportionately and more severely affected by early onset multimorbidity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Higher education students' mental health has been a growing concern in recent years even before the COVID-19 pandemic. The stresses and restrictions associated with the pandemic have put university students at greater risk of developing mental health issues, which may significantly impair their academic success, social interactions and their future career and personal opportunities. This paper aimed to understand the mental health status of University students at an early stage in the pandemic and to investigate factors associated with higher levels of distress. An online survey including demographics, lifestyle/living situations, brief mental well-being history, questions relating to COVID-19 and standardised measures of depression, anxiety, resilience and quality of life was completed by 1173 students at one University in the North of England. We found high levels of anxiety and depression, with more than 50% experiencing levels above the clinical cut offs, and females scoring significantly higher than males. The survey also suggested relatively low levels of resilience which we attribute to restrictions and isolation which reduced the opportunities to engage in helpful coping strategies and activities rather than enduring personality characteristics. Higher levels of distress were associated with lower levels of exercising, higher levels of tobacco use, and a number of life events associated with the pandemic and lockdown, such as cancelled events, worsening in personal relationships and financial concerns. We discuss the importance of longer-term monitoring and mental health support for university students. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The Global Digital Exemplar (GDE) Programme was designed to promote the digitisation of hospital services in England. Selected provider organisations that were reasonably digitally-mature were funded with the expectation that they would achieve internationally recognised levels of excellence and act as exemplars ('GDE sites') and share their learning with somewhat less digitally-mature Fast Follower (FF) sites. Aims: This paper explores how partnerships between GDE and FF sites have promoted knowledge sharing and learning between organisations. Methods: We conducted an independent qualitative longitudinal evaluation of the GDE Programme, collecting data across 36 provider organisations (including acute, mental health and speciality), 12 of which we studied as in-depth ethnographic case studies. We used a combination of semi-structured interviews with programme leads, vendors and national policy leads, non-participant observations of meetings and workshops, and analysed national and local documents. This allowed us to explore both how inter-organisational learning and knowledge sharing was planned, and how it played out in practice. Thematic qualitative analysis, combining findings from diverse data sources, was facilitated by NVivo 11 and drew on sociotechnical systems theory. Results: Formally established GDE and FF partnerships were perceived to enhance learning and accelerate adoption of technologies in most pairings. They were seen to be most successful where they had encouraged, and were supported by, informal knowledge networking, driven by the mutual benefits of information sharing. Informal networking was enhanced where the benefits were maximised (for example where paired sites had implemented the same technological system) and networking costs minimised (for example by geographical proximity, prior links and institutional alignment). Although the intervention anticipated uni-directional learning between exemplar sites and 'followers', in most cases we observed a two-way flow of information, with GDEs also learning from FFs, through informal networking which also extended to other health service providers outside the Programme. The efforts of the GDE Programme to establish a learning ecosystem has enhanced the profile of shared learning within the NHS. Conclusions: Inter-organisational partnerships have produced significant gains for both follower (FF) and exemplar (GDE) sites. Formal linkages were most effective where they had facilitated, and were supported by, informal networking. Informal networking was driven by the mutual benefits of information sharing and was optimised where sites were well aligned in terms of technology, geography and culture. Misalignments that created barriers to networking between organisations in a few cases were attributed to inappropriate choice of partners. Policy makers seeking to promote learning through centrally directed mechanisms need to create a framework that enables networking and informal knowledge transfer, allowing local organisations to develop bottom-up collaboration and exchanges, where they are productive, in an organic manner. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: To determine the magnitude and shape of the relationship between dental caries experience and the source of oral health information in England. Methods: This was a cross-sectional study using the Child Dental Health Survey 2013 in England. Using a negative binomial model, the relationship between the number of decayed, missing, filled teeth (DMFT) of 12- and 15-year-old students and their primary source of oral health information was assessed. The sources of oral health information included parents, television, newspapers, the Internet, and social media. The adjusted model included age, sex, and the Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD). R was used for data handling, analysis and reporting. Results: Overall, 2,372 children were assessed (48.7% female, 48.6% 12-year-old). For the majority, the primary source of oral health information was their parents (89.5%) followed by the Internet (43.4%). Over nine-tenth of the participants had a DMFT = 0. The adjusted model showed that the prevalence rate of DMFT for the children whose primary source of information is their parents (0.45) or television (0.62) is lower than 1. The prevalence rate for the Internet (1.17) and social media (1.67) was higher than 1, but they were removed from the final model due to being non-statistically significant. Age and deprivation had a direct relationship with the prevalence rate of DMFT, meaning that 15-year-olds and children from more deprived areas had a higher prevalence rate of DMFT. Conclusion: Children whose primary source of oral health information was their parents or television had a lower DMFT. On the contrary, using the Internet or social media as the source of oral health information was associated with higher caries experience among schoolchildren. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: In response to the adverse impacts of the COVID-19 lockdown measures Move Well, Feel Good (MWFG) was developed as a school intervention using improvement of motor competence as a mechanism for promoting positive mental health. Study objectives were to evaluate the feasibility and acceptability of MWFG and to describe changes in child-level outcomes. Methods: Five northwest England primary schools were recruited. MWFG was delivered over 10-weeks through physical education (PE) lessons, which were supplemented by optional class-time, break-time, and home activities. The intervention focused on development of 9–10 year-old children's motor competence in locomotor, object control, and stability skills, and psychosocial skills. Feasibility was evaluated against nine pre-defined criteria using surveys, interviews (teachers), and focus groups (children). Pre- and post-intervention assessments of motor competence, mental health, prosocial behaviour, wellbeing, and 24-hour movement behaviours were also completed. Results: The five recruited schools represented 83% of the target number, 108 children consented (54% of target) with teachers recruited in all schools (100% of target). Intervention dose was reflected by 76% of the 45 scheduled PE lessons being delivered, and adherence was strong (>85% of children attending ≥75% of lessons). Positive indicators of acceptability were provided by 86% of children, 83% of PE teachers, and 90% of class teachers. Data collection methods were deemed acceptable by 91% of children and 80% of class teachers, and children spoke positively about participating in the data collection. Child-level outcome data collection was completed by 65%-97% of children, with a 3%-35% attrition rate at post-intervention, depending on measure. Favourable changes in motor competence (+13.7%), mental health difficulties (-8.8%), and prosocial behaviour (+7.6%) were observed. Conclusions: MWFG is an acceptable and feasible motor competence intervention to promote positive mental health. Content and delivery modifications could inform progression to a pilot trial with a more robust design. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Considerable spatial heterogeneity has been observed in COVID-19 transmission across administrative areas of England throughout the pandemic. This study investigates what drives these differences. We constructed a probabilistic case count model for 306 administrative areas of England across 95 weeks, fit using a Bayesian evidence synthesis framework. We incorporate the impact of acquired immunity, of spatial exportation of cases, and 16 spatially-varying socio-economic, socio-demographic, health, and mobility variables. Model comparison assesses the relative contributions of these respective mechanisms. We find that spatially-varying and time-varying differences in week-to-week transmission were definitively associated with differences in: time spent at home, variant-of-concern proportion, and adult social care funding. However, model comparison demonstrates that the impact of these terms is negligible compared to the role of spatial exportation between administrative areas. While these results confirm the impact of some, but not all, static measures of spatially-varying inequity in England, our work corroborates the finding that observed differences in disease transmission during the pandemic were predominantly driven by underlying epidemiological factors rather than aggregated metrics of demography and health inequity between areas. Further work is required to assess how health inequity more broadly contributes to these epidemiological factors. Author summary: During the COVID-19 pandemic, different geographic areas of England saw different patterns in the number of confirmed cases over time. This study investigated whether demographic differences between these areas (such as the amount of deprivation, the age and ethnicity of the populations, or differences in where people spent their time) were linked to these differences in disease transmission. We also considered whether this was associated with the number of cases in neighbouring areas as well. Using a mathematical model fit to multiple data streams, we discovered that a statistically significant link between some demographic variables (time spent at home, COVID-19 variant, and the amount of adult social care funding) and week-to-week transmission exists, but this relationship is very small, and the influence of cases in neighbouring areas was far more impactful in explaining differences in transmission between areas over time. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Identifying which young people living with perinatally acquired HIV (PHIV) are less likely to engage in care is crucial to allow targeted interventions to support them to attend clinic. We adapted an existing Engagement in Care (EIC) algorithm for adults with HIV in England, for use in young people. We applied it to data from young people with PHIV in the Adolescents and Adults Living with Perinatal HIV (AALPHI) cohort. The algorithm predicts the timing of the next scheduled clinic visit, within 1–6 months of current visit, based on routine clinical data. Follow-up was 12-months from AALPHI baseline interview. Each person-month was classified as engaged in care or not. Logistic regression models (allowing for clustered data) were used to explore baseline characteristics associated with being engaged in care, adjusting for a priori variables (time from interview, sex, age, ethnicity, country of birth). Potential characteristics were across 7 domains: sociodemographic; risk behaviour practices; mental health; cognition; clinic setting; HIV management and experience; and HIV clinical markers. Of 316 young people, 187(59%) were female, 271(86%) of black ethnicity and 184(58%) born abroad. At baseline, median [IQR] age was 17[15–18] years, and 202(69%) had viral load ≤50 copies/ml(c/mL). 87% of 3,585 person-months were classified as engaged in care. Characteristics independently associated with poorer odds of being engaged in care were: Asian/mixed/other ethnicity, vs. black ethnicity (OR 0.44, 95% CI 0.25, 0.78, p = 0.02); ever self-harmed, vs. not (OR 0.55, 95% CI 0.32, 0.95, p = 0.03); on antiretroviral therapy (ART) and self-assessed bad/not so good adherence (OR 0.46, 95% CI 0.25, 0.84) or not on ART (OR 0.64, 95% CI 0.64, 1.21) vs. on ART and good/excellent adherence (p = 0.04)); baseline VL>50c/mL, vs VL≤50c/mL (OR 0.47, 95% CI 0.30, 0.75, p = 0.002). These characteristics can help identify individuals requiring enhanced support to maintain service engagement. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives: The Social media, Smartphone use and Self-Harm (3S-YP) study is a prospective observational cohort study to investigate the mechanisms underpinning associations between social media and smartphone use and self-harm in a clinical youth sample. We present here a comprehensive description of the cohort from baseline data and an overview of data available from baseline and follow-up assessments. Methods: Young people aged 13–25 years were recruited from a mental health trust in England and followed up for 6 months. Self-report data was collected at baseline and monthly during follow-up and linked with electronic health records (EHR) and user-generated data. Findings: A total of 362 young people enrolled and provided baseline questionnaire data. Most participants had a history of self-harm according to clinical (n = 295, 81.5%) and broader definitions (n = 296, 81.8%). At baseline, there were high levels of current moderate/severe anxiety (n = 244; 67.4%), depression (n = 255; 70.4%) and sleep disturbance (n = 171; 47.2%). Over half used social media and smartphones after midnight on weekdays (n = 197, 54.4%; n = 215, 59.4%) and weekends (n = 241, 66.6%; n = 263, 72.7%), and half met the cut-off for problematic smartphone use (n = 177; 48.9%). Of the cohort, we have questionnaire data at month 6 from 230 (63.5%), EHR data from 345 (95.3%), social media data from 110 (30.4%) and smartphone data from 48 (13.3%). Conclusion: The 3S-YP study is the first prospective study with a clinical youth sample, for whom to investigate the impact of digital technology on youth mental health using novel data linkages. Baseline findings indicate self-harm, anxiety, depression, sleep disturbance and digital technology overuse are prevalent among clinical youth. Future analyses will explore associations between outcomes and exposures over time and compare self-report with user-generated data in this cohort. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding digital exclusion in older adults during the COVID-19 pandemic could help tailor responses to future outbreaks. This cohort study used data from older adults aged 60+ years in England who participated in wave nine (2018/2019) of the main English Longitudinal Study of Ageing (ELSA) survey, and/or wave one of the ELSA COVID-19 sub-study (June/July 2020). Using latent class analysis and latent transition analysis, we aimed to identify distinct subgroups of older adults characterised by different patterns of internet use pre- and intra-pandemic, explore the extent to which individuals remained in the same subgroup or transitioned to a different subgroup during the COVID-19 pandemic, and examine longitudinal associations of socio-economic factors (education, occupational class, and wealth) with latent class membership. Preliminary tests showed that the types of internet activities differed between men and women; therefore, subsequent analyses were stratified by biological sex. Three clusters (low, medium, and high) were identified in male participants at both timepoints. Among female participants, three clusters were distinguished pre-pandemic and two (low versus high) during the pandemic. The latent classes were characterised by participants' breadth of internet use. Higher education, occupational class, and wealth were associated with greater odds of membership in the medium and/or high classes, versus the low class, in men and women. A high degree of stability in latent class membership was observed over time. However, men experienced a stark decrease in online health information-seeking. Our results highlight that inequality regarding the range of functional and social opportunities provided by the internet prevailed during the pandemic. Policymakers should ensure that digital access and upskilling initiatives are equitable for all. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: Demand for urgent and emergency health care in England has grown over the last decade, for reasons that are not clear. Changes in population demographics may be a cause. This study investigated associations between individuals' characteristics (including socioeconomic deprivation and long term health conditions (LTC)) and the frequency of emergency department (ED) attendances, in the Norfolk and Waveney subregion of the East of England. Methods: The study population was people who were registered with 91 of 106 Norfolk and Waveney general practices during one year from 1 April 2022 to 31 March 2023. Linked primary and secondary care and geographical data included each individual's sociodemographic characteristics, and number of ED attendances during the same year and, for some individuals, LTCs and number of general practice (GP) appointments. Associations between these factors and ED attendances were estimated using Poisson regression models. Results: 1,027,422 individuals were included of whom 57.4% had GP data on the presence or absence of LTC, and 43.1% had both LTC and general practitioner appointment data. In the total population ED attendances were more frequent in individuals aged under five years, (adjusted Incidence Rate Ratio (IRR) 1.25, 95% confidence interval 1.23 to 1.28) compared to 15–35 years); living in more socioeconomically deprived areas (IRR 0.61 (0.60 to 0.63)) for least deprived compared to most deprived,and living closer to the nearest ED. Among individuals with LTC data, each additional LTC was also associated with increased ED attendances (IRR 1.16 (1.15 to 1.16)). Among individuals with LTC and GP appointment data, each additional GP appointment was also associated with increased ED attendances (IRR 1.03 (1.026 to 1.027)). Conclusions: In the Norfolk and Waveney population, ED attendance rates were higher for young children and individuals living in more deprived areas and closer to EDs. In individuals with LTC and GP appointment data, both factors were also associated with higher ED attendance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: Reducing waiting times is a major policy objective in publicly-funded healthcare systems. However, reductions in waiting times can produce a demand response, which may offset increases in capacity. Early detection and diagnosis of cancer is a policy focus in many OECD countries, but prolonged waiting periods for specialist confirmation of diagnosis could impede this goal. We examine whether urgent GP referrals for suspected cancer patients are responsive to local hospital waiting times. Method: We used annual counts of referrals from all 6,667 general practices to all 185 hospital Trusts in England between April 2012 and March 2018. Using a practice-level measure of local hospital waiting times based on breaches of the two-week maximum waiting time target, we examined the relationship between waiting times and urgent GP referrals for suspected cancer. To identify whether the relationship is driven by differences between practices or changes over time, we estimated three regression models: pooled linear regression, a between-practice estimator, and a within-practice estimator. Results: Ten percent higher rates of patients breaching the two-week wait target in local hospitals were associated with higher volumes of referrals in the pooled linear model (4.4%; CI 2.4% to 6.4%) and the between-practice estimator (12.0%; CI 5.5% to 18.5%). The relationship was not statistically significant using the within-practice estimator (1.0%; CI -0.4% to 2.5%). Conclusion: The positive association between local hospital waiting times and GP demand for specialist diagnosis was caused by practices with higher levels of referrals facing longer local waiting times. Temporal changes in waiting times faced by individual practices were not related to changes in their referral volumes. GP referrals for diagnostic cancer services were not found to respond to waiting times in the short-term. In this setting, it may therefore be possible to reduce waiting times by increasing supply without consequently increasing demand. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Genetic drift in infectious disease transmission results from randomness of transmission and host recovery or death. The strength of genetic drift for SARS-CoV-2 transmission is expected to be high due to high levels of superspreading, and this is expected to substantially impact disease epidemiology and evolution. However, we don't yet have an understanding of how genetic drift changes over time or across locations. Furthermore, noise that results from data collection can potentially confound estimates of genetic drift. To address this challenge, we develop and validate a method to jointly infer genetic drift and measurement noise from time-series lineage frequency data. Our method is highly scalable to increasingly large genomic datasets, which overcomes a limitation in commonly used phylogenetic methods. We apply this method to over 490,000 SARS-CoV-2 genomic sequences from England collected between March 2020 and December 2021 by the COVID-19 Genomics UK (COG-UK) consortium and separately infer the strength of genetic drift for pre-B.1.177, B.1.177, Alpha, and Delta. We find that even after correcting for measurement noise, the strength of genetic drift is consistently, throughout time, higher than that expected from the observed number of COVID-19 positive individuals in England by 1 to 3 orders of magnitude, which cannot be explained by literature values of superspreading. Our estimates of genetic drift suggest low and time-varying establishment probabilities for new mutations, inform the parametrization of SARS-CoV-2 evolutionary models, and motivate future studies of the potential mechanisms for increased stochasticity in this system. Author summary: The transmission of pathogens like SARS-CoV-2 is strongly affected by chance effects in the contact process between infected and susceptible individuals, collectively referred to as random genetic drift. We have an incomplete understanding of how genetic drift changes across time and locations. To address this gap, we developed a computational method that infers the strength of genetic drift from time series genomic data that corrects for non-biological noise and is computationally scalable to the large numbers of sequences available for SARS-CoV-2, overcoming a major challenge of existing methods. Using this method, we quantified the strength of genetic drift for SARS-CoV-2 transmission in England throughout time and across locations. These estimates constrain potential mechanisms and help parameterize models of SARS-CoV-2 evolution. More generally, the computational scalability of our method will become more important as increasingly large genomic datasets become more common. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Physical inactivity within an ageing population is an ongoing public health concern for policymakers. Engagement in sport forms a foundation of policy designed to encourage physical activity participation and improve health and wellbeing. This study aimed to (i) understand the extent to which older adults participate in sport and the (ii) correlates that predict this involvement within an English population sample of older adults. A further aim was (iii) to examine the extent in which sports participation may vary due to the opportunity provided across Active Partnerships in England. To address this, a multi-level analysis framed through COM-B was conducted of the 2021 English Active Lives dataset (i.e., during the COVID-19 pandemic). The Active Lives survey provides population-level insight into sport, exercise, and physical activity participation across England. It samples upwards of n = 180,000 participants beyond the age of 16 years and asks questions on factors that influence participation. Our findings drawn from a sample of n = 68,808 older adults (i.e., >60-years of age) indicate that when accounting for variation across regions sports participation was significantly predicted by age (β = -.246, p =.040) and multiple deprivation (β =.706, p =.030). Further, our analysis suggests sports participation across regions is associated with changes in the perceptions of opportunity to participate (β = -28.70, p =.001). As the UK transitions from the COVID-19 pandemic, findings have implications for the promotion of sports participation for older adults, in that local, regional, and national stakeholders must do more to change perceptions of social and physical opportunity within an ageing population. This may be achieved through adaptations to the recreational sporting landscape, raising awareness, and supportive policy changes on a national level. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: The aim was to compare the probability of discharge after hip fracture surgery conditional on being alive and in hospital between patients mobilised within and beyond 36-hours of surgery across groups defined by depression. Methods: Data were taken from the National Hip Fracture Database and included patients 60 years of age or older who underwent hip fracture surgery in England and Wales between 2014 and 2016. The conditional probability of postsurgical live discharge was estimated for patients mobilised early and for patients mobilised late across groups with and without depression. The association between mobilisation timing and the conditional probability of live discharge were also estimated separately through adjusted generalized linear models. Results: Data were analysed for 116,274 patients. A diagnosis of depression was present in 8.31% patients. In those with depression, 7,412 (76.7%) patients mobilised early. In those without depression, 84,085 (78.9%) patients mobilised early. By day 30 after surgery, the adjusted odds ratio of discharge among those who mobilised early compared to late was 1.79 (95% CI: 1.56–2.05, p<0.001) and 1.92 (95% CI: 1.84–2.00, p<0.001) for those with and without depression, respectively. Conclusion: A similar proportion of patients with depression mobilised early after hip fracture surgery when compared to those without a diagnosis of depression. The association between mobilisation timing and time to live discharge was observed for patients with and without depression. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Addressing soil nutrient degradation and global warming requires novel solutions. Enhanced weathering using crushed basalt rock is a promising dual-action strategy that can enhance soil health and sequester carbon dioxide. This study examines the short-term effects of basalt amendment on spring oat (Avena sativa L.) during the 2022 growing season in NE England. The experimental design consisted of four blocks with control and basalt-amended plots, and two cultivation types within each treatment, laid out in a split plot design. Basalt (18.86 tonnes ha−1) was incorporated into the soil during seeding. Tissue, grain and soil samples were collected for yield, nutrient, and pH analysis. Basalt amendment led to significantly higher yields, averaging 20.5% and 9.3% increases in direct drill and ploughed plots, respectively. Soil pH was significantly higher 256 days after rock application across cultivation types (direct drill: on average 6.47 vs. 6.76 and ploughed: on average 6.69 vs. 6.89, for control and basalt-amended plots, respectively), likely due to rapidly dissolving minerals in the applied basalt, such as calcite. Indications of growing season differences in soil pH are observed through direct measurement of lower manganese and iron uptake in plants grown on basalt-amended soil. Higher grain and tissue potassium, and tissue calcium uptake were observed in basalt-treated crops. Notably, no accumulation of potentially toxic elements (arsenic, cadmium, chromium, nickel) was detected in the grain, indicating that crops grown using this basaltic feedstock are safe for consumption. This study indicates that basalt amendments can improve agronomic performance in sandy clay-loam agricultural soil under temperate climate conditions. These findings offer valuable insights for producers in temperate regions who are considering using such amendments, demonstrating the potential for improved crop yields and environmental benefits while ensuring crop safety. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Inequalities exist in uptake of bowel cancer screening in England with low uptake in areas with high deprivation and amongst certain ethnic and religious groups. Individuals from these groups are more likely to receive a late diagnosis of bowel cancer. Uptake in Muslim communities, for example, has been shown to be lower than in the general population. Culturally adapted interventions are needed to address these inequalities. This feasibility study aims to assess the acceptability and accessibility of an educational faith-placed bowel cancer screening intervention in the East of England, alongside its impact on bowel screening uptake. It was developed by the British Islamic Medical Association in partnership with community stakeholders and professionals. Methods: Ethical approval was granted on the 27 October 2021, REC reference number 21/EE/0231. A two-group non-randomised feasibility mixed methods study will be conducted, using surveys, focus groups and semi-structured interviews. Participants eligible for bowel screening will be recruited through local mosques and community venues. We aim to recruit 100 participants to the intervention group and 150 to the comparison group (not receiving the intervention). Intervention group participants will complete a survey at baseline, post-intervention and at six-month follow up. Comparison group participants will complete a survey at baseline and at six-month follow up. Outcomes will include: intention to take up screening; actual screening uptake; knowledge, attitudes, barriers and facilitators towards screening. Regional screening hub records will be used to ascertain actual screening uptake at six-month follow-up. Quantitative survey data will be summarised using descriptive statistics (e.g., proportion), and exploratory univariate analysis will be undertaken (e.g., chi-squared test). Two focus group interviews will be conducted with intervention group participants (with up to 16 participants). Semi-structured interviews will be conducted with 10 clinicians delivering the intervention to explore the acceptability of the intervention, training, and delivery. All qualitative data will be subject to a general inductive analysis. Discussion: The findings will inform how faith-placed interventions can be implemented to increase uptake of bowel cancer screening, and potentially other health promotion programmes, to address health inequalities in ethnically diverse communities in England. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: Despite a decline in Sudden Unexpected Death in Infancy in the UK since 2004, inequalities have widened with higher rates among families from deprived backgrounds and those known to child protection services. Almost all cases involve parents who had engaged in unsafe sleeping practices despite awareness of safer sleeping advice. Objective: To understand the perspectives surrounding safer sleep of families supported by statutory child protection agencies, and use behavior change theory to inform how approaches to providing safer sleep advice to these families may be modified. Participants and setting: We interviewed 14 mothers, 2 fathers and one grandmother, who had recent contact with child protection services in northeast England. Methods: In-depth, semi-structured interviews, with purposive sampling. The COM-B model (Capability, Opportunity, and Motivation) structured our analysis. Results: Parents described how anxiety, sleep deprivation, settling infants, illness, and a desire to bond with infants influence their decision making about sleep. Parents valued credible, trusted sources and understanding how safer sleep practices protect infants. Responses to questions about 'out of routine' situations suggested social pressures surrounding routines and 'good parenting' may preclude parents from acknowledging risks and planning for these situations. Conclusion: Open conversations tailored to the needs of families, focused upon understanding why and when parent(s) do or do not follow safer sleep guidance seem a promising way of promoting safer sleep practices. Safer sleep discussions with these families are likely to be best delivered as part of wider infant care by professionals who have an established and continuing trusting relationship with parents. While advice and information should be provided by any professional in contact with the family with the necessary expertise, sensitive conversations around sleeping practices, particularly co-sleeping, may be more easily facilitated by professionals where the statutory responsibility for safeguarding is less apparent. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: Individuals with multimorbidity have an increased likelihood of using unplanned secondary care including emergency department visits and emergency hospitalisations. Those with mental health comorbidities are affected to a greater extent. The Covid-19 pandemic has negatively impacted on psychosocial wellbeing and multimorbidity care, especially among vulnerable older individuals. Aim: To examine the risk of unplanned hospital admissions among patients aged 65+ with multimorbidity and depression in Northwest London, England, during- and post-Covid-19 lockdown. Methods: Retrospective cross-sectional data analysis with the Discover-NOW database for Northwest London was conducted. The overall sample consisted of 20,165 registered patients aged 65+ with depression. Two time periods were compared to observe the impact of the Covid-19 lockdown on emergency hospital admissions between 23rd March 2020 to 21st June 2021 (period 1) and equivalent-length post-lockdown period from 22nd June 2021 to 19th September 2022 (period 2). Multivariate logistic regression was conducted on having at least one emergency hospital admission in each period against sociodemographic and multimorbidity-related characteristics. Results: The odds of having an emergency hospitalisation were greater in men than women (OR = 1.19 (lockdown); OR = 1.29 (post-lockdown)), and significantly increased with age, higher deprivation, and greater number of comorbidities in both periods across the majority of categories. There was an inconclusive pattern with ethnicity; with a statistically significant protective effect among Asian (OR = 0.66) and Black ethnicities (OR = 0.67) compared to White patients during post-lockdown period only. Conclusion: The likelihood of unplanned hospitalisation was higher in men than women, and significantly increased with age, higher deprivation, and comorbidities. Despite modest increases in magnitude of risk between lockdown and post-lockdown periods, there is evidence to support proactive case-review by multi-disciplinary teams to avoid unplanned admissions, particularly men with multimorbidity and comorbid depression, patients with higher number of comorbidities and greater deprivation. Further work is needed to determine admission reasons, multimorbidity patterns, and other clinical and lifestyle predictors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, we examine the relationship between formal care provision and informal care receipt from within the household for people over 75 years old using data from the British Household Panel Survey between 1991 and 2009. To address potential concerns about endogeneity of formal care we use a 'spatial lag' instrumental variable. We find a negative and statistically significant effect of formal care provision on informal care receipt from within the household, suggesting a substantial degree of substitutability between these two modes of care. These findings provide grounds for estimates of savings in the cost of informal care enabled by spending on formal care, which is important in light of the effects of the caregiving burden and associated responsibilities on carer's labour market participation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Frailty is characterised by a reduced resilience to adversity. In this analysis we examined changes in frailty in people aged 50+ before and during a period of austere public spending in England. Methods: Data from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing 2002–2018 were analysed. Associations between austerity and frailty were examined using (1) Multilevel interrupted times series analysis (ITSA); and (2) Accelerated longitudinal modelling comparing frailty trajectories in people of the same age in 2002 and 2012. Results: The analysis included 16,410 people (mean age 67 years, 55% women), with mean frailty index score of 0.16. Mean scores in women (0.16) where higher than in men (mean 0.14), and higher in the poorest tertile (mean 0.20) than the richest (mean 0.12). In the ITSA, frailty index scores increased more quickly during austerity than before, with the additional increase in frailty 2012–2018 being similar in magnitude to the difference in mean frailty score between people aged 65–69 and 70–74 years. Steeper increases in frailty after 2012 were experienced across the wealth–spectrum and in both sexes but were greater in the very oldest (80+). In the accelerated longitudinal analysis, frailty was lower in 2012 than 2002, but increased more rapidly in the 2012 cohort compared to the 2002 cohort; markedly so in people aged 80+. Conclusion: The period of austerity politics was associated with steeper increases in frailty with age compared to the pre–austerity period, consistent with previously observed increases in mortality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Low-normal levels of arterial carbon dioxide (PaCO2) are recommended in the acute phase of traumatic brain injury (TBI) to optimize oxygen and CO2 tension, and to maintain cerebral perfusion. End-tidal CO2 (ETCO2) may be used as a surrogate for PaCO2 when arterial sampling is less readily available. ETCO2 may not be an adequate proxy to guide ventilation and the effects on concomitant injury, time, and the impact of ventilatory strategies on the PaCO2-ETCO2 gradient are not well understood. The primary objective of this study was to describe the correlation and agreement between PaCO2 and ETCO2 in intubated adult trauma patients with TBI. Methods: This study was a retrospective analysis of prospectively-collected data of intubated adult major trauma patients with serious TBI, admitted to the East of England regional major trauma centre; 2015–2019. Linear regression and Welch's test were performed on each cohort to assess correlation between paired PaCO2 and ETCO2 at 24-hour epochs for 120 hours after admission. Bland-Altman plots were constructed at 24-hour epochs to assess the PaCO2-ETCO2 agreement. Results: 695 patients were included, with 3812 paired PaCO2 and ETCO2 data points. The median PaCO2-ETCO2 gradient on admission was 0.8 [0.4–1.4] kPa, Bland Altman Bias of 0.96, upper (+2.93) and lower (-1.00), and correlation R2 0.149. The gradient was significantly greater in patients with TBI plus concomitant injury, compared to those with isolated TBI (0.9 [0.4–1.5] kPa vs. 0.7 [0.3–1.1] kPa, p<0.05). Across all groups the gradient reduced over time. Patients who died within 30 days had a larger gradient on admission compared to those who survived; 1.2 [0.7–1.9] kPa and 0.7 [0.3–1.2] kPa, p<0.005. Conclusions: Amongst adult patients with TBI, the PaCO2-ETCO2 gradient was greater than previously reported values, particularly early in the patient journey, and when associated with concomitant chest injury. An increased PaCO2-ETCO2 gradient on admission was associated with increased mortality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives: The post-medieval period in Europe saw a dramatic increase in metabolic bone disease related to vitamin D deficiency (VDD). Recent paleopathological work has utilized interglobular dentin (IGD) as a proxy for poor vitamin D status during development, while enamel peptide analysis allows the identification of chromosomal sex in non-adult remains. Here we explore the relationship between sex, the presence of IGD, and macroscopic markers of VDD in an industrial era assemblage from Northeast England. Materials and methods: 25 individuals (9 females, 9 males, 9 unknown sex) from the cemetery site at Coach Lane, North Shields (1711–1857) were selected for paleopathological analysis, histological assessment of IGD, and enamel peptide determination of chromosomal sex. Results: Ground tooth sections from 21 individuals were of suitable quality for detection of IGD, and enamel peptide analysis confirmed the chromosomal sex of ten individuals. Sixteen individuals (76.1%) exhibited ≥1 episode of IGD. Nine of these (42.8%) exhibited >1 episode and four (19%) exhibited ≥4 episodes in regular intervals. Male sex was significantly associated with the presence of IGD (p = 0.0351; 100% males vs. 54.5% females). Females were more likely to exhibit macroscopic evidence of VDD (45.5% females vs 30% males) but this was not statistically significant. Discussion and conclusions: Periods of poor mineral metabolism during childhood appear much more prevalent at Coach Lane than macroscopic evidence suggests. Evidence of seasonal IGD episodes indicates that northern latitude played a major role in poor VD status in the Northeast of England. The significant association of IGD with male sex may be due to sex-related differences in dentinal mineralization or a higher risk of poor VD status in males aged <5 years. More work is needed to establish an evidence-based threshold for pathological levels of IGD before the presence of this feature can confidently be used as a biomarker for poor VD status. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Pandemics such as Covid-19 pose tremendous public health communication challenges in promoting protective behaviours, vaccination, and educating the public about risks. Segmenting audiences based on attitudes and behaviours is a means to increase the precision and potential effectiveness of such communication. The present study reports on such an audience segmentation effort for the population of England, sponsored by the United Kingdom Health Security Agency (UKHSA) and involving a collaboration of market research and academic experts. A cross-sectional online survey was conducted between 4 and 24 January 2022 with 5525 respondents (5178 used in our analyses) in England using market research opt-in panel. An additional 105 telephone interviews were conducted to sample persons without online or smartphone access. Respondents were quota sampled to be demographically representative. The primary analytic technique was k means cluster analysis, supplemented with other techniques including multi-dimensional scaling and use of respondent ‐ as well as sample-standardized data when necessary to address differences in response set for some groups of respondents. Identified segments were profiled against demographic, behavioural self-report, attitudinal, and communication channel variables, with differences by segment tested for statistical significance. Seven segments were identified, including distinctly different groups of persons who tended toward a high level of compliance and several that were relatively low in compliance. The segments were characterized by distinctive patterns of demographics, attitudes, behaviours, trust in information sources, and communication channels preferred. Segments were further validated by comparing the segmentation variable versus a set of demographic variables as predictors of reported protective behaviours in the past two weeks and of vaccine refusal; the demographics together had about one-quarter the effect size of the single seven-level segment variable. With respect to managerial implications, different communication strategies for each segment are suggested for each segment, illustrating advantages of rich segmentation descriptions for understanding public health communication audiences. Strengths and weaknesses of the methods used are discussed, to help guide future efforts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The prevalence of overweight and obesity in young children rose sharply during the COVID-19 pandemic. Here we estimate the potential future health and economic effects of these trends in England. Methods: Using publicly available annual Body Mass Index (BMI) data from 2006–2022, we calculated the increase in overweight/obesity prevalence (BMI ≥85th reference percentile) during the COVID-19 pandemic among children aged 4–5 and 10–11, and variation by deprivation and ethnicity. We projected the impact of child BMI trends on adult health measures to estimate added lifelong medical and social costs. Results: During 2020–2021 there were steep increases in overweight and obesity prevalence in children. By 2022, overweight and obesity prevalence in children aged 4–5 returned to expected levels based on pre-pandemic trends. However, overweight and obesity prevalence in children aged 10–11 persisted and was 4 percentage points (p<0.001) higher than expected, representing almost 56,000 additional children. The increase was twice as high in the most compared with the least deprived areas. The additional lifelong healthcare cost in this cohort will amount to £800 million with a cost to society of £8.7 billion. We did not find an increase in maternal obesity associated with the COVID-19 pandemic, however, prevalence grew faster in the post pandemic period. Discussion: The return of overweight and obesity prevalence to pre-pandemic trends in children aged 4–5 provides a clear policy target for effective intervention to tackle this growing and serious population health concern. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Disentangling the impact of the weather on transmission of infectious diseases is crucial for health protection, preparedness and prevention. Because weather factors are co-incidental and partly correlated, we have used geography to separate out the impact of individual weather parameters on other seasonal variables using campylobacteriosis as a case study. Campylobacter infections are found worldwide and are the most common bacterial food-borne disease in developed countries, where they exhibit consistent but country specific seasonality. We developed a novel conditional incidence method, based on classical stratification, exploiting the long term, high-resolution, linkage of approximately one-million campylobacteriosis cases over 20 years in England and Wales with local meteorological datasets from diagnostic laboratory locations. The predicted incidence of campylobacteriosis increased by 1 case per million people for every 5° (Celsius) increase in temperature within the range of 8°–15°. Limited association was observed outside that range. There were strong associations with day-length. Cases tended to increase with relative humidity in the region of 75–80%, while the associations with rainfall and wind-speed were weaker. The approach is able to examine multiple factors and model how complex trends arise, e.g. the consistent steep increase in campylobacteriosis in England and Wales in May-June and its spatial variability. This transparent and straightforward approach leads to accurate predictions without relying on regression models and/or postulating specific parameterisations. A key output of the analysis is a thoroughly phenomenological description of the incidence of the disease conditional on specific local weather factors. The study can be crucially important to infer the elusive mechanism of transmission of campylobacteriosis; for instance, by simulating the conditional incidence for a postulated mechanism and compare it with the phenomenological patterns as benchmark. The findings challenge the assumption, commonly made in statistical models, that the transformed mean rate of infection for diseases like campylobacteriosis is a mere additive and combination of the environmental variables. Author summary: There is good evidence that weather influences some infectious diseases, driving the seasonal and geographic distribution. This is relevant to gastrointestinal infections, which cause high morbidity and mortality worldwide. Weather can impact people's behaviour, pathogen survival and distribution, animal husbandry, and other environmental variables. We used campylobacteriosis in England and Wales as a case-study to examine a new methodology because it has a distinctive seasonality. The approach compares daily data on affected people by laboratory, the population of the laboratory catchments, and local weather variables. This allows Campylobacter incidence to be compared across the values of these variables (e.g. low to high temperature) to provide an estimate of how individual weather variables, alone or in combination, affect disease incidence. We call this the Comparative Conditional Incidence. The results from this analysis are used to build a mathematical model that represents how weather through the year influences the seasonality of disease. The factors most associated with Campylobacter are day-length, air temperature and relative humidity. This will influence future research to understand why the environment influences disease occurrence, and what the burden and pattern of the disease under different climatic scenarios. The methods may have relevance to other seasonal diseases. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: Supporting adolescents with their health and wellbeing is an international public health priority. Schools are well placed to universally detect unmet health needs and support pupils. This study aimed to evaluate the effectiveness of a digital health and wellbeing screening tool, called the 'Digital Health Contact' (DHC) implemented in schools in the East Midlands of England. The DHC, delivered by Public Health Nurses (School Nurses) (PHN(SN)), aims to identify pupils with unmet health needs (via a 'red flag' system) and provide appropriate support. Materials and methods: Using data from 22 schools which took part in the DHC and 14 schools which did not take part, across three academic years (2018–2020), we conducted a controlled interrupted timeseries analysis with negative binomial regression to explore the effect of the DHC on the number of annual referrals to PHN(SN). Using DHC data from 164 pupils, we further conducted a Difference-in-Difference analysis to explore the impact of 'red flag' and referral via the DHC in Year 9 (age 13–14) on the number of red flags in Year 11 (age 15–16). Results: Across all schools, the mean annual number of referrals increased over the three year follow-up period. In the adjusted model, the number of referrals was comparable between schools taking part in the DHC and non-participating schools (0.15 referrals [95% CI -0.21, 0.50]). Red flag score was not significantly different among Year 11 pupils, after being referred via the DHC in Year 9 (-0.36 red flags [95% CI -0.97, 0.24]). Discussion: The DHC, and similar screening tools, have the potential to raise awareness of the health and wellbeing support in schools and provide an additional pathway of referral to this support for pupils with unmet health needs, without replacing the traditional pathway where pupils refer themselves or are referred by teachers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Current research ethics frameworks were developed on the footprint of biomedical, experimental research and present several pitfalls when applied to non-experimental social sciences. This work explores how the normative principles underpinning policy and regulatory frameworks of research ethics and the related operational processes work in practice in the context of collaborative health and social care research. The work was organised in three phases. First, UK research ethics policy documents were analysed thematically, with themes further organised under the categories of 'Principles' and 'Processes'. Next, we conducted a scoping review of articles about research ethics in the context of collaborative health and social care research, published in English between 2010 and 2022. We then held an exploratory focus group with ten academic researchers with relevant experience to gather their views on how the research ethics system works in practice in England (UK). The thematic framework developed in the first phase supported the analysis of the articles included in the scoping review and of focus group data. The analysis of policy documents identified twelve themes. All were associated to both a principle and a related operational process. The scoping review identified 31 articles. Across these, some themes were barely acknowledged (e.g., Compliance with legislation). Other themes were extensively covered (e.g., The working of Research Ethics Committees), often to discuss issues and limitations in how, in practice, the research ethics system and its processes deal with collaborative research and to suggest options for improvement. Focus group data were largely consistent with the findings of the scoping review. This work provides evidence of the poor alignment between how the research ethics system is normatively expected to work and how it works in practice and offers options that could make research ethics more fit for purpose when addressing collaborative research in health and social care. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aims: Elective hip and knee replacement operations were suspended in April 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The impact of this suspension and continued disruption to the delivery of joint replacement surgery is still emerging. We describe the impact of the pandemic on the provision of publicly funded elective hip and knee replacement surgery at one teaching hospital in England and on which patients had surgery. Methods: We included all elective primary and revision hip and knee replacements performed at one hospital between January 2016 and June 2021. Using data for the years 2016–2019, we estimated the expected number of operations and beds occupied per month in January 2020 to June 2021 using time series linear models (adjusting for season and trend). We compared the predictions with the real data for January 2020 to June 2021 to assess the impact of the pandemic on the provision of elective hip and knee replacements. We compared the length of stay and characteristics (age, gender, number of comorbidities, index of multiple deprivation) of patients who had surgery before the pandemic with those who had surgery during the pandemic. Results: We included 6,964 elective primary and revision hip and knee replacements between January 2016 and June 2021. Between January 2020 and June 2021 primary hip replacement volume was 59% of predicted, and 47% for primary knee replacements. Revision hip replacement volume was 77% of predicted, and 42% for revision knee replacement. Median length of stay was one day shorter for primary (4 vs 3 days) and revision (6 vs 5 days) operations during the pandemic compared with before. Patients operated on during the pandemic were younger and had slightly more comorbidities than those operated on before the pandemic. Conclusions: The restricted provision of elective hip and knee replacements during the COVID-19 pandemic changed the patient casemix, but did not introduce new inequalities in access to these operations. Patients were younger, had more comorbidities, and stayed in hospital for less time than those treated before the pandemic. Approximately half the number of operations were performed during the pandemic than would have been expected and the effect was greatest for revision knee replacements. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: During the COVID-19 pandemic children and young people (CYP) were socially restricted during a stage of life crucial to development, potentially putting an already vulnerable population at higher risk of loneliness, social isolation, and poorer wellbeing. The objectives of this study are to conduct an exploratory analysis into loneliness before and during the pandemic, and determine which self-reported factors are associated with loneliness. Methods and findings: Participants from The Children with Long COVID (CLoCk) national study were invited to take part via an online survey, with a total of 31,017 participants taking part, 31,016 of which reported on their experience of loneliness. Participants retrospectively answered questions on demographics, lifestyle, physical health and mental health and loneliness before the pandemic and at the time of answering the survey. Before the pandemic 6.5% (2,006/31,016) of participants reported experiencing loneliness "Often/Always" and at the time of survey completion 17.4% (5,395/31,016) reported feeling lonelier. There was an association between meeting the research definition of long COVID and loneliness [3.49 OR, 95%CI 3.28–3.72]. CYP who reported feeling lonelier at the time of the survey than before the pandemic were assigned female at birth, older CYP, those from Black/African/Caribbean/Black British or other ethnicity groups, those that had 3–4 siblings and lived in more deprived areas. Conclusions: We demonstrate associations between multiple factors and experiences of loneliness during the pandemic. There is a need for a multi-faceted integrated approach when developing interventions targeted at loneliness. It is important to follow up the CYP involved at regular intervals to investigate the progression of their experience of loneliness over time. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]