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Introduction: Endoscopic ultrasound (EUS) may play a role in evaluating treatment response after definitive chemoradiation therapy (dCRT) for esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC). This study explored the prognostic markers of EUS with biopsies and developed two nomograms for survival prediction. Methods: A total of 821 patients newly diagnosed with ESCC between January 2015 and December 2019 were reviewed. We investigated the prognostic value of the changes in tumor imaging characteristics and histopathological markers by an interim response evaluation, including presence of stenosis, ulceration, tumor length, tumor thickness, lumen involvement, and tumor remission. Independent prognostic factors of progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) were determined using Cox regression analysis and further selected to build two nomogram models for survival prediction. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, calibration curve, and decision curve analysis (DCA) were used to respectively assess its discriminatory capacity, predictive accuracy, and clinical usefulness. Results: A total of 155 patients were enrolled in this study and divided into the training (109 cases) and testing (46 cases) cohorts. Tumor length, residual tumor thickness, reduction in tumor thickness, lumen involvement, and excellent remission (ER) of spatial luminal involvement in ESCC (ER/SLI) differed significantly between responders and non-responders. For patients undergoing dCRT, tumor stage (P = 0.001, 0.002), tumor length (P = 0.013, 0.008), > 0.36 reduction in tumor thickness (P = 0.004, 0.004) and ER/SLI (P = 0.041, 0.031) were independent prognostic markers for both PFS and OS. Time-dependent ROC curves, calibration curves, and DCA indicated that the predicted survival rates of our two established nomogram models were highly accurate. Conclusion: Our nomogram showed high accuracy in predicting PFS and OS for ESCC after dCRT. External validation and complementation of other biomarkers are needed in further studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: The aim of the study was to compare the clinical outcomes of induction chemotherapy (IC) followed by definitive concurrent chemoradiotherapy (dCCRT) versus chemoradiotherapy alone in patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) on the basis of a clinical scoring model. Methods: A retrospective review of 599 patients with ESCC treated with dCCRT at our institution from 2010 to 2019 was conducted. The patients were divided into two groups based on whether they received IC. A clinical scoring model was performed using the significant variables obtained from the multivariate analysis. The PFS and OS rates were estimated using the Kaplan–Meier method. Results: During the study period, 182 patients receiving IC followed by dCCRT and 417 dCCRT alone were identified. No significant differences in the PFS and OS rates were observed between the IC group (P=0.532) and the non-IC group (P=0.078). A clinical scoring model was constructed based on independent prognostic factors with scores ranging from 0 to 10.4. The patients were divided into high- and low-risk groups by using the median score as the cutoff value. The PFS rate of patients receiving IC was higher than that of patients treated without IC (P=0.034), while there was no improvement in the OS rate (P=0.794) in the high-risk group. No significant differences in the PFS (P=0.207) or OS (P=0.997) rate were found between the two treatment groups in the low-risk group. Conclusions: The addition of IC followed by dCCRT for patients with ESCC might be associated with better PFS rates based on a clinical scoring model but has no impact on OS rates. Further prospective studies are warranted for the validation of this model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Qingwu Du and Xiaoyue Wu contributed equally to this work. 2Distributions of tumor remission (A), tumor thickness (B) and lumen involvement (C) at baseline and during treatment between responders and non-responders Graph: Fig. [Extracted from the article]