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China has committed to peak carbon emissions by 2030 and become carbon neutral by 2060. Hebei, as a major energy province in China, has more challenging carbon peaking and carbon neutrality targets. Based on the extended STIRPAT model, this paper evaluates the time to peak carbon and post-peak carbon trend changes in Hebei province under different scenarios from 2020 to 2060. Based on the support vector machine model with particle swarm optimization, this paper evaluates the carbon neutral pathways under different scenarios in Hebei province from 2020 to 2060 in terms of forests, croplands, wetlands, grasslands and Carbon Capture, Utilization and Storage (CCUS). The results show that a monotonically flat trend without inflection point, a single-inflection-point plateau-period trend and a multi-inflection-point inverted U-wave trend occur after carbon peaks. Hebei Province can achieve carbon neutrality by 2060 under the policy scenario and the enhanced scenario, and the enhanced scenario is better. Comparing with existing studies, the innovation of this paper is to design different trends of changes after carbon peak, combining carbon absorption and carbon emission, and providing more diversified development paths for carbon neutral strategies through a more integrated perspective and multi-scenario comprehensive analysis. Therefore, In the future, Hebei Province should establish a platform for carbon emissions monitoring and carbon footprint assessment, and set up an early warning and assessment mechanism for carbon peaking, so as to prevent a rebound trend in carbon emissions after peaking. At the same time, it should introduce and develop carbon capture and conversion technologies and promote the low-carbon transformation of the industrial and energy sectors, thereby forcing the early realization of peak carbon. Pay attention to the role of forestry resources in carbon neutrality, increase carbon sink resources such as forests and wetlands, promote the development of CCUS, and enhance the implementation of the policy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In recent decades, large-scale deployment of photovoltaic (PV) power leads to management challenges for recycling PV module waste in China. With the growth of waste PV volumes, it is necessary to figure out the spatio-temporal distribution of PV waste at the provincial level. Based on China's carbon neutrality goal by 2060, six development pathways of PV installed capacity are proposed to identify in-use stocks of PV capacity. In particular, we develop the retired flow estimation model for PV modules that is constructed by three PV module degradation scenarios. The results show that a relatively large scale of PV waste will be started to emerge in China by 2030 and the cumulative waste is expected to reach 1100 ∼ 1450 GW by 2060. Our findings also indicate an unequal distribution of PV waste across regions and the highest PV waste volumes by 2060 is the East China region at 31.4%, with Shandong (8.99%) and Hebei(8.65%) ranking as the top provinces. This prospective research will help the PV industry plan the location and capacity of recovery facilities at an appropriate time to advance toward a more resource efficient and circular economy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]