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Accurate assessment of the sustainable development level is crucial to providing reasonable and effective management recommendations. However, analysis with a single scale can only reflect the sustainable status at a specific level. In this study, a multi-scale analysis of sustainability was conducted via the three-dimensional Ecological Footprint (EF) model in the Yangtze River Delta (YRD). Moreover, driving factors of sustainability were analyzed using the Multi-scale Geographically Weighted Regression model (MGWR). The conclusions include: (1) the development of YRD showed an unsustainable trend from 2014 to 2021, with per capita EF decreasing from 5.769 ha/cap to 5.283 ha/cap. The provincial sustainability is ranked as follows, from being the most sustainable to the least: Anhui Province > Jiangsu Province > Zhejiang Province > Shanghai City. (2) Based on dual indicators of EF depth and size, 41 cities were categorized into nine groups. The dominant type is always Medium size-Low depth (ML) and High size-Low depth (HL) type cities from 2014 to 2021. From the perspective of city scale, the sustainability of five cities weakened, while seven cities showed improvements. (3) Output value of primary industry (OVPI) and population (POP) were always the dominant factors affecting EF, but showed positive and negative correlations respectively. OVPI changes from north-south symmetric type to central symmetric type, while POP changes from central symmetric type to north-south symmetric type. This paper aims to comprehensively assess the sustainable development status from agglomeration-province-city perspectives, and its findings can provide a reference for similar regions with unbalanced development status between ecology and production. • The sustainability of the world-class urban agglomeration was assessed via the three-dimensional ecological footprint model. • More comprehensive and accurate analysis results based on multi-scale analysis. • The four patterns of influencing mechanism are revealed based on the MGWR model. • The combination analysis of dual indicators was adopted to classify the sustainability of 41 cities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• MCCA model improves the accuracy of land use structure simulation in YRD. • The index of land ecological risk assessment is expanded and optimized based on the regional characteristics of the YRD. • The ecological risk levels in 2020, 2025 and 2035 are evaluated considering ecological and economic benefits. • The spatial and temporal changes and aggregation patterns of ecological risk levels are discussed from both city-scale and patch-scale. • Several suggestions are provided for formulating more scientific and effective land use management strategies. Since land resources are essential to human survival, the over-exploitation and unreasonable utilization of land threatens the sustainability of human society. This paper uses the well-developed Yangtze River Delta (YRD) region as a case study, and adopts an improved Mixed-cell Cellular Automata Model (MCCA) to simulate the potential utilization of land resources in 2025 and 2035. Then, the paper attempts to construct a comprehensive assessment system that integrates multiple indicators, and evaluates regional risk changes at a micro patch-cell level and a macro city. The results suggest that (1) The utilization of land resources varies greatly in the YRD region from 2020 to 2035. While Shanghai will continue to make use of available built up land resources, the majority of land resources in Jiangsu Province will shift away from being agricultural in nature. Since forests make up a majority of the land resources in Zhejiang Province, and forests and agricultural land make up a majority of land resources in Anhui Province, the change in land utilization in these two provinces will be more gradual. (2) Changes in land utilization are also likely to cause ecological risks. The risk level in Shanghai is the highest, it is relatively high in Zhejiang but is likely to decrease, relatively low in Jiangsu but likely to increase, and Anhui has the lowest risk level. (3) The K-means clustering method obtained three ecological risk zones of the YRD, and the overall risk level is the highest in the central-eastern zoning ③, followed by the southern zoning ②, and the lowest in the northern zoning ①. Furthermore, the agglomeration pattern of the three zones transforms from L-L to H-H. (4) This paper puts forward corresponding suggestions and countermeasures for four aspects, including the strengthening of agricultural land protection, the regulation of built-up land use expansion, the coordination of an all-rounded approach of urban development, and the fostering of regional sustainable development, in hopes of optimizing land usage and alleviating ecological risk levels. Scientific estimations of potential ecological risks are critical to avoiding future ecological crises thus contributing to more sustainability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]