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The intensity of interannual variation of spring precipitation over southern China during 1979–2014 and possible reasons for it are investigated in this paper. There is a significant interdecadal change in the intensity of interannual variation of spring precipitation over southern China around 1995/96. The intensity of interannual variation of spring rainfall over South China is stronger during 1979–95 than that during 1996–2014. The possible reason may be the larger amplitude of the sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) in the western Pacific Ocean (WP) before 1995/96. The cooler (warmer) SSTA in WP may trigger an abnormal local anticyclone (cyclone) at lower levels. The anomalous southwesterly (northeasterly) flow at the northwestern flank of the WP anticyclone (cyclone) covers South China, transporting more (less) moisture to South China. Meanwhile, the anomalous winds converge (diverge) in South China at lower levels and diverge (converge) at upper levels, which causes the anomalous ascent (descent) to enhance (reduce) the precipitation over there. However, during 1996–2014, the intensity of interannual variation of spring rainfall over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River valley becomes much stronger than that during 1979–95, which is related to the intensified interannual variation of the atmospheric circulation in the middle and high latitudes over Eurasia. The weak (strong) Siberian high and East Asian trough may reduce (enhance) the northerly wind from the middle and high latitudes. As a result, the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River valley are subjected to the anomalous southerly wind, favoring more (less) precipitation over there. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Numerous circulation indices have been applied in practical climate services focused on regional precipitation. It is beneficial to identify the most influential or decisive indices, but this is difficult with conventional correlation analyses because of the underlying nonlinear mechanisms for precipitation. This paper demonstrates a set of the most influential indices for July–August precipitation in North China, based on the recursive random forest (RRF) method. These decisive circulation indices include the Polar–Eurasia teleconnection, North African subtropical high ridge position, India–Burma trough, Antarctic Oscillation, Northern Hemisphere polar vortex central latitude, North Atlantic Oscillation, and western Pacific subtropical high northern boundary position. Some of these factors have been recognized as directly influential to the regional precipitation, for example, those of the northwestern Pacific subtropical high; however, some are not easily understood. Decision tree (DT) models using these indices were developed to facilitate composite analyses to explain the RRF results. Taking one of the most interesting DT rules as an example, when the North African subtropical high ridge position is sufficiently far south, an anomalous anticyclone occurs in the upstream and an anomalous cyclone in the downstream of North China. This is unfavorable for northward moisture transport in eastern China and hence causes less precipitation in North China than climatology. The present results are not only helpful for improving diagnostic models of regional precipitation, but also enlightening for exploring how global climate change could impact a region by modulating large-scale circulation patterns. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The early season rainfall (ESR) over southern China, usually occurring from April to June, is a prominent meteorological phenomenon of the East Asian monsoon system. In this paper, output from the 45-day hindcast by the NCEP Climate Forecast System, version 2 (CFSv2), and various observational datasets are analyzed to assess the predictability of the ESR and associated atmospheric circulation. Results show that CFSv2 can successfully predict the ESR and associated circulation patterns over southern China. The lower-tropospheric convergence and upper-tropospheric divergence as well as the local upward motion over southern China lead to the formation of ESR. Analysis of bias shows small differences and close relationships between the predicted and observed ESR values when the forecast lead time is less than 2 weeks. The skill in the ESR predictions by CFSv2 decreases significantly when the lead time is longer than 2 weeks. Overall, CFSv2 has a higher level of skill when predicting the southern China ESR compared to the rainfall over other Asian regions during the same period of time. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding the variability and change of monsoon onset is of utmost importance for agriculture planning and water management. In the last three decades, the Asian summer monsoon onset (ASMO) has remarkably advanced, but the physical mechanisms underlying the change remain elusive. Since the overall ASMO occurs in May, this paper focuses on the change of mean fields in May and considers enhanced mean precipitation and monsoon westerly winds as signs of advanced ASMO. The results reveal that the advanced ASMO mainly represents a robust decadal shift in the mid-to-late 1990s, which is attributed to the mean state change in the Pacific basin characterized by a grand La Niña-like pattern. The La Niña-like mean state change controls the ASMO through the westward propagation of Rossby waves and its interaction with the asymmetric background mean states in the Indian Ocean and western Pacific, which intensifies the Northern Hemispheric perturbations and westerly winds. Intriguingly, the abrupt decadal shifts of monsoon onset in the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal occur in 1999, in contrast to the South China Sea with a decadal shift in 1994. Numerical experiments with a coupled climate model demonstrate that the advanced monsoon onset in the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal is governed by the enhanced zonal sea surface temperature (SST) gradients in the equatorial Pacific, while that in the South China Sea is primarily determined by the abrupt SST warming near the Philippine Sea. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, the characteristics of urban heat island (UHI) and boundary layer structures in the Beijing area, China, are analyzed using conventional and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) observations. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model coupled with a single-layer urban canopy model (UCM) is used to simulate these urban weather features for comparison with observations. WRF is also used to test the sensitivity of model simulations to different urban land use scenarios and urban building structures to investigate the impacts of urbanization on surface weather and boundary layer structures. Results show that the coupled WRF/Noah/UCM modeling system seems to be able to reproduce the following observed features reasonably well: 1) the diurnal variation of UHI intensity; 2) the spatial distribution of UHI in Beijing; 3) the diurnal variation of wind speed and direction, and interactions between mountain–valley circulations and UHI; 4) small-scale boundary layer convective rolls and cells; and 5) the nocturnal boundary layer lower-level jet. The statistical analyses reveal that urban canopy variables (e.g., temperature, wind speed) from WRF/Noah/UCM compare better with surface observations than the conventional variables (e.g., 2-m temperature, 10-m wind speed). Both observations and the model show that the airflow over Beijing is dominated by mountain–valley flows that are modified by urban–rural circulations. Sensitivity tests imply that the presence or absence of urban surfaces significantly impacts the formation of horizontal convective rolls (HCRs), and the details in urban structures seem to have less pronounced but not negligible effects on HCRs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Under the intensification of global warming, the characteristics of the Three Rivers source region (TRSR; i.e., headwaters of the Yellow River, the Yangtze River, and the Lancang River) in China were diagnosed in the summer season from 1979 to 2015 using observations and reanalysis data. The diagnoses indicate that summer precipitation decreased from 1979 to 2002 [by 9.01 mm day−1 (10 yr)−1; p < 0.05 by Student's t test] and increased significantly after 2002 [by 5.52 mm day−1 (10 yr)−1]. This abrupt change year (2002) was further confirmed by the cumulative anomaly method, the moving t-test method, and the Yamamoto method. By compositing the thermodynamics before and after the abrupt change year (2002), the results reveal that increased water vapor and more substantial lower-level convergence were present over the TRSR during 2003–15. This marked interdecadal variability in the TRSR summer precipitation responded to the interdecadal position and intensity of the large-scale forcing East Asian westerly jet (EAWJ), which is significantly modulated by the low-frequency variability associated with Southern Oscillation index. The connection between the interannual TRSR precipitation and the location and intensity of EAWJ was also explored. The position index of the EAWJ is negatively (with correlation coefficient R of −0.446; p < 0.05 by Student's t test) correlated with the precipitation over the TRSR, implying that southward and northward years of EAWJ are respectively associated with intensifying and weakening the TRSR summer precipitation, whereas the intensity of EAWJ is insignificantly correlated with the TRSR summer precipitation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An indirect radar reflectivity assimilation scheme has been developed within the Weather Research and Forecasting model three-dimensional data assimilation system (WRF 3D-Var). This scheme, instead of assimilating radar reflectivity directly, assimilates retrieved rainwater and estimated in-cloud water vapor. An analysis is provided to show that the assimilation of the retrieved rainwater avoids the linearization error of the Z- qr (reflectivity-rainwater) equation. A new observation operator is introduced to assimilate the estimated in-cloud water vapor. The performance of the scheme is demonstrated by assimilating reflectivity observations into the Rapid Update Cycle data assimilation and forecast system operating at Beijing Meteorology Bureau. Four heavy-rain-producing convective cases that occurred during summer 2009 in Beijing, China, are studied using the newly developed system. Results show that on average the assimilation of reflectivity significantly improves the short-term precipitation forecast skill up to 7 h. A diagnosis of the analysis fields of one case shows that the assimilation of reflectivity increases humidity, rainwater, and convective available potential energy in the convective region. As a result, the analysis successfully promotes the developments of the convective system and thus improves the subsequent prediction of the location and intensity of precipitation for this case. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, the interdecadal variability of the relationship between ENSO and winter synoptic temperature variability (STV) over the Asian–Pacific–American region is investigated based on observational data from 1951 to 2018. An interdecadal shift in the ENSO–STV relationship occurred in the 1980s over Eastern China, changing from significant in period 1 (P1; 1951–87) to insignificant in period 2 (P2; 1988–2018). But the ENSO–STV relationship is significantly stable over North America for the whole period. In addition, a possible reason for this interdecadal shift in the ENSO–STV relationship over Eastern China is also investigated. During P1, the ENSO pattern is significantly correlated to the temperature gradient over Northeast Asia, which is the key region influencing the intensification of extratropical eddies. The intensification of extratropical eddies over Northeast Asia is directly associated with the magnitude of STV over Eastern China. But in P2, the ENSO pattern is not related to the temperature over Northeast Asia. Therefore, the change in the ENSO pattern from P1 to P2 contributes to the interdecadal shift in the ENSO–STV relationship in the 1980s over Eastern China by influencing the temperature gradient over Northeast Asia, while ENSO can influence the temperature gradient over North America for the whole period. Furthermore, the possible role of the ENSO patterns in P1 and P2 is also examined by using an atmospheric general circulation model, highlighting that the pattern of SST variation is a determining factor in regulating STV in different regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Analyses of observation data from 1961 to 2014 by using the empirical orthogonal function (EOF) method indicate that the primary mode (a monosign pattern) of heavy snowfall over northern China in winter shows evident variations from a negative polarity to a positive polarity in the mid-1990s. Associated with this decadal change, the southward displacement of the polar front jet stream and northward shift of the subtropical jet stream in the upper troposphere are apparent. Accordingly, a negative height anomaly dominates the region from Lake Balkhash to Lake Baikal and a positive height anomaly occupies the midlatitudes of the North Pacific in the middle troposphere. Such anomalous patterns in the middle and high troposphere correspond approximately to the northern mode of the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) and may favor the interaction of cold air with moist airflows over northern China, which helps increase local heavy snowfall. Further investigation shows that the shift in the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO) from a cold phase to a warm phase in the 1990s may also play a role, through its linkage to the above atmospheric circulations with the aid of a downstream propagation of wave train that emanates from the Atlantic Ocean. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Hourly blackbody temperature data from the warm seasons (May–September) of 2009–18 were used to detect mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) generated in the southwest mountain area (elevation ≥ 500 m) of China. A total of 3059 MCSs were grouped into four categories (C1, C2, C3, and C4) according to their generation positions using K-means clustering. Major characteristics of the four types of MCSs and their synoptic environmental conditions were investigated. The MCSs had a peak in July and a minimum in May, and usually lasted from 3 to 21 h. The C1 MCSs generated in the northeast of the Tibetan Plateau developed faster, were largest, and had a longer lifespan. The C2 and C4 MCSs had greater intensity and were initiated in the southeast of the Tibetan Plateau and the west of the Yungui Plateau, and near the Wuling and Xuefeng Mountains, respectively. The C3 MCSs initiated in the Qinling, Ta-pa, and Wushan Mountains were smallest. The C1 and C2 MCSs contributed more than 30% to total precipitation, which was more than the C3 and C4 MCSs (<25%), and the contribution rate of MCSs to short-duration heavy rainfall affected by local MCSs was over 60%. Composite synoptic circulations of the four types of MCSs showed several factors, including the locations and intensities of cyclones in the Bay of Bengal and high pressure in the Indochina Peninsula in the low-to-middle troposphere, and vortexes or southwesterly winds in the low-level troposphere, regulate the location and intensity of convection. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Previous studies detected significant negative correlations between the nonuniform land surface warming and the decadal weakened activities of the summer extratropical cyclones (ECs) over East Asia and the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) after the early 1990s. Here such relationships are further examined and the possible mechanisms are explored via numerical sensitivity experiments with a regional climate model (RegCM4.5). The positive/negative sensible heat flux (SH) anomalies were added as a forcing to a key region near 50°N of East Asia in RegCM4.5 to simulate the observed ground surface temperature (GST) anomalies. The model results suggest that the nonuniform land surface warming over the Lake Baikal area (50°–60°N, 90°–120°E) can indeed cause the weakening of the extratropical cyclogenesis and affect the decadal weakening of the EASM. Warm (cold) GST forcing over the key GST region can lead to decreasing (increasing) atmospheric baroclinicity and related energy conversion of the EC activity over the key EC region (40°–50°N, 90°–120°E), resulting in an evidently weakening (enhancing) of the ECs over East Asia. Meanwhile, precipitation shows a dipole pattern with significantly suppressed (enhanced) precipitation in northern and northeastern China, and slightly enhanced (suppressed) rainfall south of 40°N of East Asia, mainly over the East China Sea. Lake Baikal and its adjacent areas are occupied by a strong anticyclonic (cyclonic) circulation while the southeast coastal areas of China have a relatively weak cyclonic (anticyclonic) circulation accompanied with an anomalous northeasterly (southwesterly) wind to the southeast of the anticyclonic circulation, which is opposite to (coincident with) the atmospheric circulation anomalies that are associated with the second mode of the EASM. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The East Asian summer monsoon is unique among summer monsoon systems in its complex seasonality, exhibiting distinct intraseasonal stages. Previous studies have alluded to the downstream influence of the westerlies flowing around the Tibetan Plateau as key to its existence. We explore this hypothesis using an atmospheric general circulation model that simulates the intraseasonal stages with fidelity. Without a Tibetan Plateau, East Asia exhibits only one primary convective stage typical of other monsoons. As the plateau is introduced, the distinct rainfall stages—spring, pre-mei-yu, mei-yu, and midsummer—emerge, and rainfall becomes more intense overall. This emergence coincides with a pronounced modulation of the westerlies around the plateau and extratropical northerlies penetrating northeastern China. The northerlies meridionally constrain the moist southerly flow originating from the tropics, leading to a band of lower-tropospheric convergence and humidity front that produces the rainband. The northward migration of the westerlies away from the northern edge of the plateau leads to a weakening of the extratropical northerlies, which, coupled with stronger monsoonal southerlies, leads to the northward migration of the rainband. When the peak westerlies migrate north of the plateau during the midsummer stage, the extratropical northerlies disappear, leaving only the monsoon low-level circulation that penetrates northeastern China; the rainband disappears, leaving isolated convective rainfall over northeastern China. In short, East Asian rainfall seasonality results from the interaction of two seasonally evolving circulations—the monsoonal southerlies that strengthen and extend northward, and the midlatitude northerlies that weaken and eventually disappear—as summer progresses. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In recent years, haze pollution has become the most concerning environmental issue in China due to its tremendous negative effects. In this study, we focus on the enhanced responses of December–January haze days in North China to September–October sea ice in the Beaufort Sea during 1998–2015. Via both observation and numerical approaches, compared with an earlier period (1980–97), the sea ice concentration in the Beaufort Sea presented large variability during 1998–2015. During 1980–97, the Beaufort Sea was mainly covered by perennial ice, and the ablation and freezing of sea ice mainly occurred at the south edge of the Beaufort Sea. Thus, heavy sea ice in autumn induced negative sea surface temperature anomalies across the Gulf of Alaska in November. However, the colder sea surface in the Gulf of Alaska only induced a weak influence on the haze-associated atmospheric circulations. In contrast, during 1998–2015, a drastic change in sea ice existed near the center of the Arctic Ocean, due to the massive melting of multiyear sea ice in the western Beaufort Sea. The perennial ice cover in the western Beaufort Sea was replaced by seasonal ice. The broader sea ice cover resulted in positive sea surface temperature anomalies in the following November. Then, suitable atmospheric backgrounds were induced for haze pollution in December and January. Simultaneously, the response of the number of haze days over North China to sea ice cover increased. These findings were verified by the CESM-LE simulations and aided in deepening the understanding of the cause of haze pollution. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent studies demonstrated the existence of a conspicuous atmospheric combination mode (C-mode) originating from nonlinear interactions between El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Pacific warm pool annual cycle (AC). Here we find that the C-mode exhibits prominent decadal amplitude variations during the ENSO decaying boreal spring season. It is revealed that the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO) can largely explain this waxing and waning in amplitude. A robust positive correlation between ENSO and the C-mode is detected during a negative AMO phase but not during a positive phase. Similar results can also be found in the relationship of ENSO with 1) the western North Pacific (WNP) anticyclone and 2) spring precipitation over southern China, both of which are closely associated with the C-mode. We suggest that ENSO property changes due to an AMO modulation play a crucial role in determining these decadal shifts. During a positive AMO phase, ENSO events are distinctly weaker than those in an AMO negative phase. In addition, El Niño events concurrent with a positive AMO phase tend to exhibit a westward-shifted sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly pattern. These SST characteristics during the positive AMO phase are both not conducive to the development of the meridionally asymmetric C-mode atmospheric circulation pattern and thus reduce the ENSO/C-mode correlation on decadal time scales. These observations can be realistically reproduced by a coupled general circulation model (CGCM) experiment in which North Atlantic SSTs are nudged to reproduce a 50-yr sinusoidally varying AMO evolution. Our conclusion carries important implications for understanding seasonally modulated ENSO dynamics and multiscale climate impacts over East Asia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The present study investigates the interdecadal changes in the relationship between El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and midlatitude North Atlantic (MNA) sea surface temperature (SST) with northwest China (NWC) winter precipitation (WP) variability and the plausible causes. Results show that ENSO and MNA SST have weak correlations with NWC WP before the mid-1990s, whereas the connections are enhanced sharply afterward, with above (below) normal precipitation occuring when there are positive (negative) ENSO SST and negative (positive) MNA SST anomalies (SSTA). Remarkable differences are found in the atmospheric circulations. After the mid-1990s, there is a pronounced Pacific–North American–Eurasian (PNA-EU)-like pattern in the Northern Hemisphere, whereas an Arctic Oscillation–like pattern is found before the mid-1990s. The change in the relationships between NWC WP and SSTs is likely attributable to the enhanced connection between ENSO and MNA SST after the mid-1990s. It is found that ENSO and MNA SSTA can cause NWC WP variation independently through atmospheric teleconnections. In addition, significant precipitation anomalies also occur when concurrent but oppositely signed SSTs anomalies in the two regions are observed. The reinforced negative correlations between ENSO and MNA SST after the mid-1990s act in concert on NWC WP by exciting a PNA-EU-like pattern. This information would help us to better understand the physical processes of the teleconnections between NWC WP variability and the ENSO/MNA SST, in which the strength of the correlation between ENSO and MNA SST should be taken into account. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Based on the long-term reanalysis datasets and the multivariate copula method, this study reveals that the frequency of summer hot drought events (SHDEs) over northeastern China (NEC) shows interdecadal variations during 1925–2010. It is revealed that the summer sea surface temperature (SST) over the North Atlantic has a significant positive correlation with the frequency of SHDEs over NEC on the decadal time scale, indicating a potential influence of the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO). Further analyses indicate that during the positive phases of the AMO, the warming SST over the North Atlantic can trigger a stationary Rossby wave originating from the North Atlantic, which splits into two wave trains propagating along two different routes. One is a zonally orientated wave train that resembles the Silk Road pattern, whereas the other is an arching wave train that resembles the polar–Eurasian pattern. A negative (positive) phase of the Silk Road pattern (polar–Eurasian pattern) may result in the weakened westerly wind along the jet stream, the downward vertical motion, and the anomalous positive geopotential center over NEC, providing favorable conditions for precipitation deficiency and high temperature and resulting in increased SHDEs. Thus, the Silk Road pattern and the polar–Eurasian pattern serve as linkages between the AMO and SHDEs over northeastern China in summer on the interdecadal time scale. Model simulations from CAM4 perturbed with warmer SST in the North Atlantic show precipitation deficiency and high temperature conditions over northeastern China in summer, supporting the potential impacts of the North Atlantic SST on SHDEs over northeastern China. The results suggest that the phase of the AMO should be taken into account in the decadal prediction of SHDEs over northeastern China in summer. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) intensified during the early to mid-Holocene relative to the present primarily due to orbital forcing. However, on the regional scale, changes in the monsoonal precipitation exhibit considerable spatial disparity, and the underlying mechanisms remain unresolved. In this study, the dynamic processes responsible for the difference of the EASM precipitation between the mid-Holocene and preindustrial period are systematically examined using the CMIP5 multimodel simulations. The moisture budget diagnostic identifies vertical motion as the key factor determining the cross-like precipitation pattern in East Asia. Relative to the preindustrial period, the mid-Holocene anomalous ascending motion corresponds well with the excessive precipitation over northern and southern China, and vice versa for west-central China, the Korean peninsula, Japan, and its marginal seas. In the framework of the moist static energy budget, the increased insolation and the attendant intensification of land–sea thermal contrast give rise to anomalous ascending motions, while descending motions are fundamentally forced by the decreased latitudinal insolation gradient. In particular, thermodynamic changes, namely, the reduced pole–equator temperature and humidity gradients, account for the downward motions over the northwestern Pacific. Dynamic changes, namely, the weakened westerlies, play a leading role in suppressing updrafts in west-central China. This study highlights that the orbital-scale monsoonal precipitation changes are not solely determined by local radiative forcing as repeatedly emphasized before. The latitudinal uneven distribution of insolation is crucial to explain the spatial inhomogeneity in the EASM precipitation changes during the Holocene. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Assessing change in daily maximum wind speed and its likely causes is crucial for many applications such as wind power generation and wind disaster risk governance. Multidecadal variability of observed near-surface daily maximum wind speed (DMWS) from 778 stations over China is analyzed for 1975–2016. A robust homogenization protocol using the R package Climatol was applied to the DMWS observations. The homogenized dataset displayed a significant (p < 0.05) declining trend of −0.038 m s−1 decade−1 for all China annually, with decreases in winter (−0.355 m s−1 decade−1, p < 0.05) and autumn (−0.108 m s−1 decade−1; p < 0.05) and increases in summer (+0.272 m s−1 decade−1, p < 0.05) along with a weak recovery in spring (+0.032 m s−1 decade−1; p > 0.10); that is, DMWS declined during the cold semester (October–March) and increased during the warm semester (April–September). Correlation analysis of the Arctic Oscillation, the Southern Oscillation, and the west Pacific modes exhibited significant correlation with DMWS variability, unveiling their complementarity in modulating DMWS. Further, we explored potential physical processes relating to the atmospheric circulation changes and their impacts on DMWS and found that 1) overall weakened horizontal airflow [large-scale mean horizontal pressure gradient (from −0.24 to +0.02 hPa decade−1) and geostrophic wind speed (from −0.6 to +0.6 m s−1 decade−1)], 2) widely decreased atmospheric vertical momentum transport [atmospheric stratification thermal instability (from −3 to +1.5 decade−1) and vertical wind shear (from −0.4 to +0.2 m s−1 decade−1)], and 3) decreased extratropical cyclones frequency (from −0.3 to 0 month decade−1) are likely causes of DMWS change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Seasonal covariability of the dryness/wetness in China and global sea surface temperature (SST) is investigated by using the monthly self-calibrated Palmer drought severity index (PDSI) data and other data from 1950 to 2014. The singular value decomposition (SVD) analysis shows two recurring PDSI-SST coupled modes. The first SVD mode of PDSI is associated with the warm phases of the eastern Pacific-type El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the interdecadal Pacific oscillation (IPO) or Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO), the Indian Ocean basin mode (IOBM) in the autumn and winter, and the cold phase of the IOBM in the spring. Meanwhile, the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO) pattern appears in every season except the autumn. The second SVD mode of PDSI is accompanied by a central Pacific-type El Niño developing from the winter to autumn over the tropical Pacific and a positive phase of IPO or PDO from the winter to summer. Moreover, an AMO pattern is observed in all seasons except the summer, whereas the SST over the tropical Indian Ocean shows negligible variations. The further analyses suggest that AMO remote forcing may be a primary factor influencing interdecadal variability of PDSI in China, and interannual to interdecadal variability of PDSI seems to be closely associated with the ENSO-related events. Meanwhile, the IOBM may be a crucial factor in interannual variability of PDSI during its mature phase in the spring. In general, the SST-related dryness/wetness anomalies can be explained by the associated atmospheric circulation changes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study explores how the termination of the mei-yu is dynamically linked to the westerlies impinging on the Tibetan Plateau. It is found that the mei-yu stage terminates when the maximum upper-tropospheric westerlies shift beyond the northern edge of the plateau, around 40°N. This termination is accompanied by the disappearance of tropospheric northerlies over northeastern China. The link between the transit of the jet axis across the northern edge of the plateau, the disappearance of northerlies, and termination of the mei-yu holds on a range of time scales from interannual through seasonal and pentad. Diagnostic analysis indicates that the weakening of the meridional moisture contrast and meridional wind convergence, mainly resulting from the disappearance of northerlies, causes the demise of the mei-yu front. The authors propose that the westerlies migrating north of the plateau and consequent weakening of the extratropical northerlies triggers the mei-yu termination. Model simulations are employed to test the causality between the jet and the orographic downstream northerlies by repositioning the northern edge of the plateau. As the plateau edge extends northward, orographic forcing on the westerlies strengthens, leading to persistent strong downstream northerlies and a prolonged mei-yu. Idealized simulations with a dry dynamical core further demonstrate the dynamical link between the weakening of orographically forced downstream northerlies with the positioning of the jet from south to north of the plateau. Changes in the magnitude of orographically forced stationary waves are proposed to explain why the downstream northerlies disappear when the jet axis migrates beyond the northern edge of the plateau. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study introduces a multivariable covariance index (MVCI) to illustrate the synoptic features of mei-yu in the Yangtze River valley (YRV) region, which contains information of three indicators of mei-yu including precipitation, surface relative humidity, and tropospheric vertical motion. The interdecadal variation in the synoptic features of mei-yu during 1961–2016 is investigated using the MVCI. The date of mei-yu peak and the intensity of mei-yu underwent noticeable interdecadal variations over past decades, which are characterized by a delayed (relatively early) mei-yu peak and a relatively large (small) mei-yu intensity during 1985–97 (1961–80 and 2006–16). The mechanisms of these interdecadal variations are further discussed. The interdecadal variation in the date of mei-yu peak is mainly modulated by the meridional water vapor transport over eastern China during June, which may be partially attributed to an influence of the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) on the clockwise gyre over the North Pacific during boreal summer. The interdecadal variation in mei-yu intensity is associated with the interdecadal variation of tropospheric vertical motion over the YRV region during boreal summer, which may be partially attributed to an interaction between the PDO and the large-scale tropical east–west circulation during boreal summer. In addition, the interdecadal variation in the water vapor flux budget and relative humidity over the YRV region also exerted an impact on the interdecadal variation of mei-yu intensity in the YRV region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It is known that an increase of water vapor over the Arctic is one of most plausible causes driving Arctic amplification. However, debate continues with regard to the explanation of the underlying mechanisms driving the increase of moisture over the Arctic region in the observations. Here, we used the Community Atmosphere Model with prescribed sea surface temperature along with reanalysis datasets to examine the role of fast atmospheric responses to the increase of anthropogenic sulfate aerosol concentrations in China. We found that it plays an additive role in moisture transport from the midlatitudes, resulting in warming of the Arctic region, especially around the Barents–Kara Seas. Specifically, sulfate aerosol forcing in China reduces the meridional temperature gradient and leads to the increase of moisture transport into the Arctic by altering atmospheric circulation. The resulting increase of moisture then leads to surface warming through the enhancement of the downwelling longwave radiation. This implies that Arctic warming around the Barents–Kara Seas has been accelerated, at least in part, by a fast atmospheric response to anthropogenic sulfate aerosol emissions in China in the recent past. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Previous studies have noted that a strong El Niño event occurring in the preceding winter will result in westward stretching of the western North Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) in the following summer, causing anomalously high precipitation in the Yangtze–Huaihe River basin and anomalously low precipitation in southern China. The winters preceding the summers of 1998 and 2016 featured strong El Niño events, which, along with the El Niño event of 1982, represented the strongest El Niño events since 1950. Under these similar El Niño event backgrounds, the July precipitation anomaly in 2016 was similar to that in 1998, but the August precipitation anomalies in the two years featured opposite distributions. According to the atmospheric circulation analysis, we found that an anomalous ascending motion appeared over the Indian Ocean, while an anomalous descending motion appeared over the Pacific Ocean in August 1998. In addition, the WPSH stretched westward over southern China. However, the atmospheric circulation distribution in August 2016 was the opposite of that in 1998, and the WPSH was divided into eastern and western parts by the anomalous western Pacific cyclone. Further analysis showed that the number of tropical cyclones and typhoons over the western Pacific Ocean increased significantly in August 2016, and their activities were concentrated in the South China Sea (SCS)–southern China region and the western Pacific Ocean, resulting in the division of the WPSH. Therefore, the numbers, tracks, and strengths of tropical cyclones and typhoons were responsible for the differences in the anomalous precipitation distributions over the East Asia–Pacific Ocean region between August 2016 and August 1998. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study investigated the extratropical circulation anomalies responsible for cold surges over the South China Sea in winter. The surge events were identified by the intensity of northerly winds over 110°–117.5°E along 15°N at 925 hPa. Two distinct patterns of sea level pressure (SLP) anomalies in East Asia were found to have a crucial role in inducing cold surges over the South China Sea. Accordingly, the cold surge events were classified into two types. The first type of cold surge is characterized by a pair of SLP anomalies with positive and negative ones centered over China and Japan, respectively, whereas the second type of cold surge is characterized by widespread and persistent positive SLP anomalies over East Asia. Furthermore, the first type of cold surge is accompanied by a deepened East Asian trough and precursory Rossby wave trains across the Eurasian continent in the mid- and upper troposphere, but the latter is not. Prior to both types of the cold surges, the Siberian high is significantly intensified. However, diagnosis of the SLP tendency indicates that the intensification is related to different physical processes. In the first type of cold surge, the Rossby wave trains favor negative vorticity advection and cold advection, inducing intensification of the Siberian high. By contrast, in the second type of cold surge, vorticity advection can be ignored due to the lack of Rossby wave trains, and only the lower-tropospheric cold advection induced by anomalous northerly winds, resulting from the anomalous Siberian high, contributes to the further intensification of the Siberian high. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Haze pollution is among the most serious disasters in the North China Plain, dramatically damaging human health and the social economy. The frequency of haze events in February typically varies from the number of haze days in the winter. To improve the understanding of haze pollution in February, this study not only showed the large-scale atmospheric circulations associated with the variation in the haze, but also analyzed its connection with Arctic sea ice. The observational and large ensemble model results both illustrated that the preceding increase in the early-winter Chukchi Sea ice might intensify the February haze pollution. The accumulated sea ice over the Chukchi Sea resulted in a steeper meridional sea surface temperature gradient and a significant and persistent westerly thermal wind. In February, the responsive pattern in the atmosphere developed into a Rossby wave–like pattern, linking the Chukchi Sea ice and the February haze pollution. Modulating by the induced large-scale atmospheric circulations, the horizontal and vertical atmospheric ventilation conditions and the hygroscopic growth conditions enhanced the frequency of haze pollution events. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) is regarded as the key circulation system that dominates the summer heat waves over eastern China, but whether the WPSH–summer heat wave connection changes with time remains unknown. In this study, decadal variations in the WPSH–heat wave connection were examined for the period 1959–2016 using daily maximum temperature data from 654 observational stations across China and global reanalysis datasets. The results show that the correlation coefficient between the WPSH intensity (WPSHI) and the number of heat-wave days (NHD) was 0.65 (>99% confidence level) during positive phases of the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO), whereas that during negative phases of the PDO was only 0.12 (<80% confidence level). The remarkable difference in correlations is due to the more westward extension of a stronger WPSH in El Niño decaying summers during the positive phases of PDO. The stronger Indian Ocean warming in El Niño decaying-year summers for PDO positive phases in comparison to PDO negative phases is associated with enhanced convection and heating, which further drive a stronger anticyclone over the northwestern Pacific, leading to a stronger and more westward-extending WPSH, which is favorable for more heat waves over eastern China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In June 2017, south China suffered from intense rainfall that broke the record spanning the previous 70 years. In this study, the large-scale circulations associated with the south China June rainfall are analyzed. The results show that the anomalous Pacific--Japan (PJ) pattern is a direct influence on south China June rainfall or East Asian early summer rainfall. In addition, the Australian high was the strongest in June 2017 during the past 70 years, which can increase the equatorward flow to northern Australia and activate convection over the Maritime Continent. Enhanced convection over the Maritime Continent can further enhance local meridional circulation along East Asia, engendering downward motion over the tropical western North Pacific and enhancing the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) and upward motion over south China, which increases the rainfall therein. In addition, a strong wave train pattern associated with North Atlantic air--sea interaction was observed in June 2017 at Northern Hemispheric mid- to high latitudes; it originated from the North Atlantic and propagated eastward to East Asia, resulting in an anomalous anticyclone over the Mongolian--Baikal Lake region. This anomalous anticyclone produced strong northerly winds over East Asia that encountered the southerly associated with the WPSH over south China, thereby favoring intense rainfall over the region. Case studies of June 2017 and climate research based on data during 1979-2017 and 1948-2017 indicate that the extremities of the atmospheric circulation over south Europe and Australian high and their coupling with the PJ pattern could be responsible for the record-breaking south China rainfall in June 2017. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

South China experiences extreme heat (EH) most frequently in eastern China. This study specifically explores the large-scale circulation anomalies associated with long-lived EH events in south China. The results show that there is an anomalous cyclone (anticyclone) and active (inactive) convection over south China (the western Pacific) before the EHonset; then, an anticyclone develops and moves northwestward and dominates over south China on the onset day. The anomalous anticyclone maintains its strength over south China and then diminishes and is replaced by another cyclone migrating from the western Pacific after the final day of the EH event. Consequently, the temperature increases over south China around the onset day and is anomalously warm for approximately 10 days on average and then decreases shortly thereafter. The fluctuating anomalies over south China and the western Pacific are intimately related to two intraseasonal oscillation (ISO) modes, namely, the 5-25- and 30-90-day oscillations, which originate from the tropical western Pacific and propagate northwestward. The 5-25-day oscillation is vital to triggering and terminating EH, accounting for approximately half of the original temperature and circulation anomaly transitions. The 30-90-day oscillation favors the persistent warming during EH events, accounting for approximately one-third of the original prolonged warming and anticyclonic anomaly. This result suggests that different ISO modes play crucial roles at different stages of the events. Moreover, a higher annual frequency of long-lived EH days in south China is associated with the transition phase from El Niño toLaNiña. It is suggested that both mediumrange and interannual forecasting of long-lived EH in south China are possible. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The impact of snow cover in western and central China during late autumn on wintertime blocking occurrence is investigated using reanalysis data. The study results show that wintertime atmospheric circulations affected by late autumn snow cover anomalies form favorable conditions for increased blocking frequency (BF), especially in the North Pacific and North Atlantic. Evidence is also presented that the stratosphere-troposphere interactions are the key mechanism of the lag response of wintertime North Pacific and North Atlantic BFs to the late autumn snow cover. That is, positive anomalous snow cover can induce a dipole anomaly in the geopotential height field over the lower stratosphere, due to the decrease of the 300-1000-hPa thickness and the concurrent variation between the East Asian plateau jet and the polar front jet. The associated positive geopotential height anomalies are located over northwestern Eurasia. Meanwhile, western and central China shows remarkably negative geopotential height anomalies. Also, the corresponding atmospheric circulation in the lower stratosphere increases the Eliassen-Palm flux that propagates into the stratosphere through the constructive interference between the forced and climatological waves. The upward wave activity fluxes collapse the polar vortex in the stratosphere, resulting in the downward propagation of the geopotential and wind anomalies from the stratosphere. Consequently, the decreased zonal wind speed in the upper layer of the blocking region forms conditions favorable for wintertime blocking. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A strong cold event hit eastern China around 24 January 2016 with surface air temperature reaching more than 10°C below the climatological mean in most regions of eastern China south of 40°N. A total of 37 strong cold events similar to the January 2016 event with temperature anomalies over eastern China exceeding −5°C have been identified during the winters from 1979/80 to 2015/16. A comparative analysis of events with surface temperature anomalies of the same intensity but limited to north of 40°N indicates that the southward invasion of cold air to eastern China south of 40°N is related to two factors. One is the latitudinal location of the upper-level wave train, the surface Siberian high, and the midtropospheric East Asian trough over the mid- to high-latitude Eurasian continent. The other is a subtropical upper-level wave train emanating from the midlatitude North Atlantic. The emergence of the subtropical wave train is related to the positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). When the mid- to high-latitude wave train is located too far northward and the subtropical wave train induces an anomalous midtropospheric high over southern China, the East Asian trough does not extend southwestward and the Siberian high does not expand southeastward. In such a case, the cold air mainly affects northeastern China and northern Japan. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The eastern China precipitation dipole (ECPD) features an out-of-phase relationship between boreal summer precipitation over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and the Hetao region to its northwest. The precipitation dipole is strongly influenced by ENSO teleconnections over the western tropical Pacific. Here it is shown that a pronounced weakening of both the rainfall variability over eastern China as well as the precipitation dipole structure occurred around the mid-1990s. The changes have been analyzed by considering two epochs: one during 1979-95 and the other during 1996-2009. The characteristic feature of the circulation anomaly during the first epoch is the well-known East Asia-Pacific/Pacific-Japan (EAP/PJ) pattern, a quasi-meridional teleconnection pattern emanating from the western tropical Pacific. On the other hand, during the latter epoch eastern China precipitation variability occurs as an integral part of the circulation anomalies over the western Pacific. In contrast to the more meridionally restricted anomalies during canonical ENSO episodes, the western Pacific circulation has a significantly larger meridional scale. Intriguingly correlation of the precipitation dipole with Pacific sea surface temperature flips in sign during the second epoch, with enhanced precipitation over southeastern China associated with La Niña-like variability, in contrast to the co-occurrence of enhanced precipitation over this region with El Niño during the first epoch. The results suggest that the dominance of Modoki or central Pacific El Niños, and the altered structure of ENSO teleconnections associated with these, may play a role in the weakened ECPD structure during the latter epoch. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Interdecadal variations in the relationship between the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and surface air temperature in China are investigated using observational and reanalysis data. Focus is on south-central China, in which temperature variability is strongly related to the NAO. It is revealed that the relationship shows clear interdecadal variations in midwinter during 1951-2015. A relatively weak in-phase relationship occurs before the early 1970s (P1), but a significant out-of-phase relationship dominates in the last two decades of the twentieth century (P2), though it is clearly weaker from the late 1990s onward. Observational evidence shows that such interdecadal variations are related mainly to variations in the spatial pattern and amplitude of the NAO. The northern center of the NAO shifted eastward over the second half of the twentieth century. In addition, the amplitude of the center strengthened from P1 to P2, resulting in a perturbation in the atmospheric circulation response pattern over Eurasian mid-to-high latitudes. During P2, the eastward shift and amplitude intensification of the NAO favored a north-south dipole structure in circulation anomalies over the Asian continent, which tended to produce cold temperature anomalies in south-central China during the positive NAO phase and warm anomalies during the negative phase. However, in the past two decades the northern center of the NAO has weakened and retreated westward. This was concurrent with a weakening relationship between the NAO and temperature anomalies in south-central China and northern Eurasia, indicating weaker downstream impacts of the NAO in midwinter. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Based on a comprehensive collection of hail observations and the NCEP-NCAR reanalyses from 1960 to 2012, the long-term trends of hail day frequency in mainland China and the associated changes in atmospheric circulation patterns were analyzed. There was no detectable trend in hail frequency from 1960 to the early 1980s, but a significant decreasing trend was apparent in later periods throughout most of China and in particular over the Tibetan Plateau from the early 1980s and over northern and northwestern China from the early 1990s. Hail frequency in southern China did not decrease as significantly as in other regions over the last couple of decades. An objective classification method, the obliquely rotated T-mode principal component technique, was used to investigate atmospheric circulation patterns. It was found that 51.85% of the hail days occurred during two major circulation types, both of which were associated with cold frontal systems in northern China. More specifically, the synoptic trough in East Asia, signified by the meridional circulation at 850 hPa, became considerably weaker after 1990. This change in the synoptic pattern is consistent with a weakening trend in the East Asian summer monsoon, the primary dynamic forcing of moisture transport that contributes to the generation of severe convection in northern China. The long-term variability of hail day frequency over the Tibetan Plateau was more strongly correlated with the change in mean freezing-level height (FLH) than the strength of the East Asian monsoon. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Previous studies have suggested that, because of its particular location on the southeastern lee side of mountains, extreme heat (EH) over western north China (WNC) is affected by the foehn phenomenon. In this study, the EH days during summer over this region are categorized into foehn-favorable EH and no-foehn EH, according to whether there are anomalous northwesterlies over mountains, and composite analyses are performed on them. The analyzed results indicate that the no-foehn EH is characterized by an anticyclonic anomaly and a large-scale higher surface air temperature, while the foehn-favorable EH is featured by a cyclonic anomaly to the northeast and a localized higher temperature. Associated with the cyclonic anomaly, northwesterlies prevail over the mountain surface and provide a favorable environment for the occurrence of the foehn effect over WNC, which is located on the southeastern lee side of mountains. That is, both cyclonic and anticyclonic anomalies can induce EH over WNC (i.e., foehn-favorable EH and no-foehn EH, respectively). Further investigation indicates that large-scale cyclonic and anticyclonic anomalies tend to favor local descent and ascent anomalies over the lee side, respectively, through interaction with the particular terrain. Therefore, large-scale circulations and local terrain-induced winds play an offsetting role in affecting the surface air temperatures over WNC, and EH occurs when anomalous large-scale anticyclone or terrain-induced descent dominate. This study implies that attention should be paid to not only the upper-level/large-scale circulations but also to their impact on lower-level/local winds for temperature variability over the places with great topographic relief worldwide. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To quantify and explain effects of different land surface schemes (LSSs) on simulated geopotential height (GPH) fields, we performed simulations over China for the summer of 2003 using 12-member ensembles with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model, version 3. The results show that while the model can generally simulate the seasonal and monthly mean GPH patterns, the effects of the LSS choice on simulated GPH fields are substantial, with the LSS-induced differences exceeding 10 gpm over a large area (especially the northwest) of China, which is very large compared with climate anomalies and forecast errors. In terms of the assessment measures for the four LSS ensembles [namely, the five-layer thermal diffusion scheme (SLAB), the Noah LSS (NOAH), the Rapid Update Cycle LSS (RUC), and the Pleim-Xiu LSS (PLEX)] in the WRF, the PLEX ensemble is the best, followed by the NOAH, RUC, and SLAB ensembles. The sensitivity of the simulated 850-hPa GPH is more significant than that of the 500-hPa GPH, with the 500-hPa GPH difference fields generally characterized by two large areas with opposite signs due to the smoothly varying nature of GPHs. LSS-induced GPH sensitivity is found to be higher than the GPH sensitivity induced by atmospheric boundary layer schemes. Moreover, theoretical analyses show that the LSS-induced GPH sensitivity is mainly caused by changes in surface fluxes (in particular, sensible heat flux), which further modify atmospheric temperature and pressure fields. The temperature and pressure fields generally have opposite contributions to changes in the GPH. This study emphasizes the importance of choosing and improving LSSs for simulating seasonal and monthly GPHs using regional climate models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Spring persistent rainfall (SPR) over southern China has great impact on its society and economics. A remarkable feature of the SPR is high frequency. However, SPR frequency obviously decreases over the period of 1997-2011. In this study, the possible causes have been investigated from the perspective of the individual and concurrent effects of the East Asian subtropical jet (EASJ) and East Asian polar front jet (EAPJ). A close relationship is detected between SPR frequency and EASJ intensity (but not EAPJ intensity). Associated with strong EASJ, abundant water vapor is transported to southern China by the southwesterly flow, which may trigger the SPR. Additionally, frequencies of both strong EASJ and weak EAPJ events are positively correlated with SPR frequency. Further investigation of the concurrent effect indicates a significant positive correlation between the frequencies of SPR and the strong EASJ-weak EAPJ configuration. Associated with this configuration, southwesterly flow strengthens in the lower troposphere, while northerly wind weakens in the upper troposphere. This provides a dynamic and moist condition, as enhanced ascending motion and intensified convergence of abundant water vapor over southern China, which favors the SPR. All analyses suggest that the EASJ may play a dominant role in the SPR occurrence and that the EAPJ may play a modulation role. Finally, a possible mechanism maintaining the strong EASJ-weak EAPJ configuration is proposed. Significant cooling over the northeastern Tibetan Plateau may induce a cyclone anomaly in the upper troposphere, which could result in an accelerating EASJ and a decelerating EAPJ. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The circulation associated with extreme heat (EH) typically shows an anomalous anticyclone that enhances temperature through adiabatic heating, but this study indicates obvious spatial variation in eastern China. The EH-related circulation pattern in eastern China can be classified into three categories: typical extratropical pattern, monsoonal pattern, and foehn pattern. EH over northeastern China and eastern north China is characterized by a typical pattern involving an anomalous anticyclone and subsidence, and the air temperature increases throughout almost the entire troposphere. In contrast, EH over the Yangtze River valley and south China is associated with the monsoonal pattern. Over these regions, the air temperature only increases in the lower troposphere as a result of anomalous subsidence and lower humidity that has resulted from a farther north transportation of water vapor by a stronger monsoonal southwesterly. Meanwhile, the air temperature decreases in the upper troposphere because of the decrease of latent heat caused by suppressed precipitation. On the other hand, western north China, with most of its stations located on the eastern leeside of mountains, is obviously influenced by the foehn effect on EH days. The foehn-related northwesterly anomalies bring drier and warmer air from the mountains to sink on the leeside and greatly increase the air temperature in the lower troposphere, particularly near the surface. Therefore, the impacts of monsoon and topography should be taken into consideration when EH-related circulations are discussed over the many regions of eastern China. As a result, the reliable projection of air temperature in these regions under global warming is a challenging problem. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the boreal winter, the Arctic Oscillation (AO) evidently acts to influence surface air temperature (SAT) anomalies in China. This study reveals a large intraseasonal variation in the relationship between the winter AO and southern China SAT anomalies. Specifically, a weak in-phase relationship occurs in December, but a significant out-of-phase relationship occurs in January and February. The authors show that the linkage between the AO and southern China SAT anomalies strongly depends on the AO-associated changes in the Middle East jet stream (MEJS) and that such an AO-MEJS relationship is characterized by a significant difference between early and middle-to-late winter. In middle-to-late winter, the Azores center of high pressure anomalies in the positive AO phase usually extends eastward and yields a significantly anomalous upper-level convergence over the Mediterranean Sea, which can excite a Rossby wave train spanning the Arabian Sea and intensify the MEJS. In early winter, however, the Azores center of the AO is apparently shifted westward and is mainly confined to the Atlantic Ocean; in this case, the associated change in the MEJS is relatively weak. Both observational diagnoses and experiments based on a linearized barotropic model suggest that the MEJS is closely linked to the AO only when the latter generates considerable upper-level convergence anomalies over the Mediterranean Sea. Therefore, the different impacts of the AO on the MEJS and the southern China SAT anomalies between early and middle-to-late winter are primarily attributed to the large intraseasonal zonal migrations of the Azores center of the AO. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Based on daily rainfall observations and Japanese 25-year Reanalysis Project data during ~1981-2010, a three-dimensional circulation structure that formed before heavy summer rainfall in central north China (CNC) is revealed in this study. Composite analyses of circulation in advance of 225 heavy rain days show that the circulation structure is characterized by a remarkable upper-tropospheric warm anomaly (UTWA), which covers most of northern China with a center at ~300 hPa. Under hydrostatic and geostrophic equilibriums, the UTWA contributes to the generation of an anticyclonic (cyclonic) anomaly above (below). The anticyclonic anomaly strengthens (weakens) westerly winds to the north (south) of the warm center and pushes the high-level westerly jet to the north. The cyclonic anomaly deepens the trough upstream of CNC and intensifies lower southwesterly winds to the mideast of the warm center. As a result, the northerly stretched high-level jet produces upper divergence in its right-front side and the intensified southwesterly winds induce lower moisture convergence in its left-front side, causing heavy rainfall in CNC. Correlation analyses further confirm the close connections between UTWA and circulation in the upper and lower troposphere. The correlation coefficients between UTWA and the upper geopotential height, upper westerly jet, and lower southerly flow reach 0.95, 0.70, and 0.39, implying that the two critical factors leading to intense rainfall in CNC, the high-level jet and the low-level southerly flow, are closely connected with the UTWA. Consequently, in the future analyses and forecasts of heavy rainfall over northern China, more attention should be paid to the temperature in the upper troposphere. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The changes in summer rainfall over the Tarim Basin, China, and the underlying mechanisms have been investigated using the observed rainfall data at 34 stations and the NCEP-NCAR reanalysis data during the period of 1961-2007. Results show that the summer rainfall over the Tarim Basin, which exhibits a significant increasing trend during the last half century, is closely related to the summer middle and upper tropospheric cooling over central Asia. Mechanism analysis indicates that the middle and upper tropospheric cooling over central Asia results in a location farther south of the subtropical westerly jet over western and central Asia with anomalous southerly wind at lower levels and ascending motion prevailing over the Tarim Basin. Such anomalies in the atmospheric circulations provide favorable conditions for the enhanced summer rainfall over the Tarim Basin. Further analysis suggests that the weakened South Asian summer monsoon (SASM) could be potentially responsible for the middle and upper tropospheric cooling over central Asia. This is largely through the atmospheric responses to the diabatic heating effect of the SASM. A weakened SASM can result in an anomalous cyclone in the middle and upper troposphere over central Asia. The western part of the anomalous cyclone produces more cold air advection, which leads to the cooling. This study suggests indirect but important effects of the SASM on the summer rainfall over the Tarim Basin. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study investigates the influence of different sea surface temperature (SST) modes on the winter temperature in China using the generalized equilibrium feedback assessment (GEFA). It is found that the second EOF mode of winter temperature in China during 1958-2010 shows a typical northeast-southwest (NE-SW) pattern, which is a major spatial mode of Chinese winter temperature at interannual scales. The winter temperature of the NE-SW pattern is forced mainly by SST modes in the tropical Pacific and Atlantic. For 2009/10, the tropical Pacific El Niño mode and tropical Atlantic tripole mode have the largest contribution to the response. The physical mechanism of the cold northeast-warm southwest (CNE-WSW) pattern is also explained in terms of GEFA of the responses of the atmospheric circulation. The northerly flow at the low level transports cold air to northern and northeastern China, resulting in a lower temperature there. Meanwhile, the anomaly meridional wind advects warm air from the southern oceans to southwestern China, leading to warming there. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Rainfall characteristics and convective properties of monsoon precipitation systems over South China (SC) and the Yangtze and Huai River basin (YHRB) are investigated using multiple satellite products, surface rainfall observations, NCEP reanalysis, and weather maps. Comparisons between SC and YHRB are made for their monsoon active periods and their subseasonal variations from the premonsoon to monsoon and further to postmonsoon periods. The principal findings are as follows. (i) During the monsoon active period, region-averaged rain accumulation is greater in SC due to more frequent occurrence of precipitation systems; however, heavy rainfall contribution is greater in YHRB. These differences are related to more intense convective motion over the YHRB in association with the flatter land and more concurrent presence and stronger intensity of the low-level vortices and surface fronts. (ii) Largely in agreement with the subseasonal variations of the atmospheric thermodynamic conditions, convective intensity is enhanced progressively from the premonsoon to the monsoon and further to the postmonsoon period in both regions, as suggested by most convection proxies, except for lightning flash rate, which decreases substantially over SC but increases slightly over the YHRB from the premonsoon to the monsoon period. (iii) Compared to the monsoon active period, precipitation storms in both regions during the postmonsoon and monsoon break periods are more controlled by local instability due to solar heating but less controlled by larger-scale weather systems. This scale difference in the driving mechanisms leads to the smaller horizontal extent of the precipitation systems during the postmonsoon and monsoon break periods and also to the more pronounced afternoon peaks in precipitation system occurrence in the postmonsoon period. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The East Asian mei-yu (EAMY), which includes the mei-yu over eastern China, baiu over Japan, and changma over Korea, is an important component of the Asia summer monsoon system. The EAMY rain belt jumps northward to the Yangtze and Huaihe River valleys (in China), Japan, and Korea from mid-June to mid-July, with remarkable interannual variability. In this study, the variability and predictability of EAMY are investigated using the retrospective ensemble predictions of the NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFS). The CFS reasonably captures the centers, magnitude, northward jump, and other features of EAMY over most regions. It also reasonably simulates the interannual variations of EAMY and its main influencing factors such as the western Pacific subtropical high, the East Asian monsoon circulation, and El Niño--Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The CFS is skillful in predicting EAMY and related circulation patterns with a lead time of one month. An empirical orthogonal function analysis with maximized signal-to-noise ratio is applied to determine the most predictable patterns of EAMY. Furthermore, experiments in which the CFS is forced by observed sea surface temperature (SST) exhibit lower skill in EAMY simulation, suggesting the importance of ocean--atmosphere coupling in predicting EAMY. The CFS, which exaggerates the precipitation over the southern--southeastern hills of the Tibetan Plateau, overestimates the relationship between EAMY and tropical--subtropical atmospheric circulation due to the overly strong ENSO signals in the model, whereas the experiments forced by observed SST produce a weaker relationship. On the contrary, the CFS underestimates the link of EAMY to higher-latitude processes. An increase in the horizontal resolution of the CFS is expected to reduce some of these errors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Hourly observational records and 6-hourly reanalysis data were used to investigate the influences of large-scale forcings on the diurnal variation of summer rainfall along the Yangtze River (YR). The results show that long-duration (more than six hours) rainfall events dominate the summer rainfall along the YR. These events tend to start during the night and to peak after several hours of development. The eastward-delayed initiation of the nocturnal long-duration rainfall events is thought to be due to the diurnal clockwise rotation of the low-tropospheric circulation, especially the accelerated nocturnal southwesterlies. In the early evening, the anomalous easterly flow toward the Tibetan Plateau (TP) causes low-level convergence over the Plateau’s eastern slope that induces the formation of rainfall in the upper YR valley. The anomalous wind sequentially rotates clockwise to a southerly flow at midnight and accelerates the meridional wind in the middle valley, resulting in the initiation of rainfall between 2300 and 0300 LST. In the early morning, the accelerated southwesterlies in southern China, when combined with decelerated winds in the north of the YR, causes a strong convergence along the YR and contributes to the early morning rainfall in the lower valley. Furthermore, the development of the convection systems is suppressed in the afternoon by the mid- and low-level warm advection downstream from the TP. This helps explain why long-duration events do not typically start in the afternoon in the upper YR valley. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article discusses the Tibetan observation and research platform (TORP) in Tibet, China. The study focuses on the land-surface processes and environment over the plateau, with an emphasis on atmosphere-land interaction. It says that the data collected in TORP could be helpful in the analysis of land and atmospheric processes, model or scheme development, model calibration, validation, and other tasks. Furthermore, the TORP can help on the study of impacts of the Tibetan Plateau on the Asian Monsoon system and climatic changes in the world.

The Pearl River Delta (PRD) region, located in the southern part of Guangdong Province in China, is one of the most rapidly developing regions in the world. The evolution of local and regional sea-breeze circulation (SBC) is believed to be responsible for forming meteorological conditions for high air-pollution episodes in the PRD. To understand better the impacts of urbanization and its associated urban heat island (UHI) on the local- and regional-scale atmospheric circulations over PRD, a number of high-resolution numerical experiments, with different approaches to treat the land surface and urban processes, have been conducted using the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University–National Center for Atmospheric Research Mesoscale Model (MM5). The results show that an accurate urban land-use dataset and a proper urban land-use parameterization are critical for the mesoscale model to capture the major features of the observed UHI effect and land–sea-breeze circulations in the PRD. Stronger UHI in the PRD increases the differential temperature gradient between urbanized areas and nearby ocean surface and hence enhances the mesoscale SBC. The SBC front consequently penetrates farther inland to overcome the prevailing easterly flow in the western part of inland Hong Kong. Additional sensitivity studies indicate that further industrial development and urbanization will strengthen the daytime SBC as well as increase the air temperature in the lowest 2 km of the atmosphere. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This is the second part of a study investigating the 1991 severe precipitation event over the Yangtze--Huai River valley (YHRV) in China using both observations and regional model simulations. While Part I reported on the Mei-yu front and its association with large-scale circulation, this study documents the biases associated with the treatment of the lateral boundary in the regional model. Two aspects of the biases were studied: the driving field, which provides large-scale boundary forcing, and the coupling scheme, which specifies how the forcing is adopted by the model. The former bias is defined as model uncertainty because it is not related to the model itself, while the latter bias (as well as those biases attributed to other sources) is referred to as model error. These two aspects were examined by analyzing the regional model simulations of the 1991 summer severe precipitation event over YHRV using different driving fields (ECMWF--TOGA objective analysis, ECMWF reanalysis, and NCEP--NCAR reanalysis) and coupling scheme (distribution function of the nudging coefficient and width of the buffer zone). Spectral analysis was also used to study the frequency distribution of the bias. The analyses suggest that the 200-hPa winds, 500-hPa geopotential height, and 850-hPa winds and water vapor mixing ratio, which have dominant influences on Mei-yu evolution, are sensitive to large-scale boundary forcing. In particular the 500-hPa geopotential height, and 850-hPa water vapor mixing ratio near the Tibetan Plateau and over the western Pacific Oceans are highly dependent on the driving field. On the other hand, the water vapor in the lower troposphere, wind at all levels, and precipitation pattern are much more affected by the treatment of nudging in the coupling scheme. It is interesting to find that the two commonly used coupling schemes, the lateral boundary coupling and the spectral coupling, provide similar large-scale information to the... [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article presents abstracts on meteorological topics which include the scientific preparation and observation systems under the international field campaign called the Convective and Orographicaly-induced Precipitation Study (COPS), the Tibetan Observation and Research Platform (TORP) that focuses on atmosphere-land interaction in Tibetan Plateau, and the campaign of Terrain-Induced Rotor Experiment (T-REX).