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Time indices of the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) are often used to generate empirical forecasts of the global atmospheric circulation. Moist deep convection associated with the MJO initiates eastward-propagating Rossby waves that disperse into the midlatitudes. The background circulation then guides extratropical waves back into the tropics of the eastern Pacific Ocean. Previous works have shown that equatorial Rossby (ER) waves occur following intrusion of extratropical Rossby waves into the tropics. Westward-propagating ER waves and the MJO modulate the total convection. This convection modulates the zonal wind, which influences the location and existence of westerly wind ducts. These wind ducts, in turn, guide extratropical waves into the tropics. This paper demonstrates through a simple composite analysis that a simultaneous assessment of MJO and ER waves yields more information about the extratropical circulation during boreal winter than can be obtained based on either type of disturbance alone, or from a sum of the signals associated with the MJO and ER waves composited separately. This analysis, together with previous results, suggests a feedback loop between the MJO, these waves, and the extratropical circulation. Thus, assessment of the ER wave state during a particular phase of the MJO might yield better empirical prediction of the global atmospheric circulation that follows. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Fields of atmospheric motion vectors (AMVs) are routinely derived by tracking features in sequential geostationary satellite infrared, water vapor, and visible-channel imagery. While AMVs produced operationally by global data centers are routinely evaluated against rawinsondes, there is a relative dearth of validation opportunities over the tropical oceans-in particular, in the vicinity of tropical disturbances when anomalous flow fields and strongly sheared environments commonly exist. A field experiment in 2010 called Pre-Depression Investigation of Cloud-Systems in the Tropics (PREDICT) was conducted in the tropical west Atlantic Ocean and provides an opportunity to evaluate the quality of tropical AMVs and analyses derived from them. The importance of such a verification is threefold: 1) AMVs often provide the only input data for numerical weather prediction (NWP) over cloudy areas of the tropical oceans, 2) NWP data assimilation methods are increasingly reliant on accurate flow-dependent observation-error characteristics, and 3) global tropical analysis and forecast centers often rely on analyses and diagnostic products derived from the AMV fields. In this paper, the authors utilize dropsonde information from high-flying PREDICT aircraft to identify AMV characteristics and to better understand their errors in tropical-disturbance situations. It is found that, in general, the AMV observation errors are close to those identified in global validation studies. However, some distinct characteristics are uncovered in certain regimes associated with tropical disturbances. High-resolution analyses derived from the AMV fields are also examined and are found to be more reflective of anomalous flow fields than the respective Global Forecast System global model analyses. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper explores the response of the tropical hydrologic cycle to surface warming through the lens of large-domain cloud-system-resolving model experiments run in a radiative-convective equilibrium framework. Simulations are run for 55 days and are driven with fixed insolation and constant sea surface temparatures (SSTs) of 298 K, 300 K, and 302 K. In each experiment, convection organizes into coherent regions of large-scale ascent separated by areas with relatively clear air and troposphere-deep descent. Aspects of the simulations correspond to observed features of the tropical climate system, including the transition to large precipitation rates above a critical value of total column water vapor, and an increase in convective intensity with SST amidst weakening of the large-scale overturning circulation. However, the authors also find notable changes to the interaction between convection and the environment as the surface warms. In particular, organized convection in simulations with SSTs of 298 and 300 K is inhibited by the presence of a strong midtropospheric stable layer and dry upper troposphere. As a result, there is a decrease in the vigor of deep convection and an increase in stratiform precipitation fraction with an increase in SST from 298 to 300 K. With an increase in SST to 302 K, moistening of the middletroposphere and increase in lower-tropospheric buoyancy serve to overcome these limitations, leading to an overall increase in convective intensity and larger increase in upper-tropospheric relative humidity. The authors conclude that, while convective intensity increases with SST, the aggregate nature of deep convection is strongly affected by the details of the thermodynamic environment in which it develops. In particular, the positive feedback between increasing SST and a moistening upper troposphere found in the simulations, operates as a nonmonotonic function of SST and is modulated by a complex interaction between deep convection and the environmental relative humidity and static stability profile. The results suggest that projected changes in convection that assume a monotonic dependence on SST may constitute an oversimplification. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyzes synoptic-scale trough-thinning processes using a filamentation time diagnostic. The filamentation time diagnostic is derived from the potential vorticity equation expressed in spherical coordinates in the horizontal plane and the isentropic coordinate in the vertical direction. The diagnostic is an accurate measure of stirring processes under the condition of “slowly varying velocity gradients.” Trough-thinning processes are analyzed for one tropical example and two midlatitude examples. The results indicate that the filamentation time for the tropical trough-thinning event is generally longer than those for the midlatitude trough events. In addition to the effects of stretching and shearing deformation, the filamentation time diagnostic contains the effects of divergence. For the calculation of filamentation time on isentropic surfaces in spherical coordinates, it is acceptable to ignore the curvature effects in the tropics; however, in both the midlatitudes and the tropics, isentropic divergence effects should be retained for improved accuracy. Combining an analysis of cross potential vorticity contour flows on isentropic surfaces with the filamentation time analysis gives a more complete description of the dynamics. The results show that the filamentation time diagnostic can serve as a useful aid in the analysis and prediction of trough thinning and cutoff-low formation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper deals with the dynamical aspect of variational data assimilation in the tropics and the role of the background-error covariances in the observing system simulation experiments for the tropics. The study uses a model that describes the horizontal structure of the potential temperature and wind fields in regions of deep tropical convection. The assimilation method is three- and four-dimensional variational data assimilation. The background-error covariance model for the assimilation is a multivariate model that includes the mass–wind couplings representative of equatorial inertio-gravity modes and equatorial Kelvin and mixed Rossby–gravity modes in addition to those representative of balanced equatorial Rossby waves. Spectra of the background errors based on these waves are derived from the tropical forecast errors of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) model. Tropical mass–wind (im)balances are illustrated by studying the potential impact of the spaceborne Doppler wind lidar (DWL) Atmospheric Dynamic Mission (ADM)-Aeolus, which measures horizontal line-of-sight (LOS) wind components. Several scenarios with two DWLs of ADM-Aeolus type are compared under different flow conditions and using different assumptions about the quality of the background-error covariances. Results of three-dimensional variational data assimilation (3DVAR) illustrate the inefficiency of multivariate assimilation in the tropics. The consequence for the assimilation of LOS winds is that the missing part of the wind vector can hardly be reconstructed from the mass-field observations and applied balances as in the case of the midlatitudes. Results of four-dimensional variational data assimilation (4DVAR) show that for large-scale tropical conditions and using reliable background-error statistics, differences among various DWL scenarios are not large. As the background-error covariances becomes less reliable, horizontal scales become smaller and the flow becomes less zonal, the importance of obtaining information about the wind vector increases. The added value of another DWL satellite increases as the quality of the background-error covariances deteriorates and it can be more than twice as large as in the case of reliable covariances. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The generally accepted view of the meridional circulation in the tropical east Pacific is that of a single deep overturning cell driven by deep convective heating in the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ), similar to the zonal mean Hadley circulation. However, recent observations of the atmosphere from the tropical eastern Pacific have called this view into question. In several independent datasets, significant meridional return flows out of the ITCZ region were observed, not only at high altitudes, but also at low altitudes, just above the atmospheric boundary layer. This paper presents a theory and idealized simulations to understand the causes and dynamics of this shallow meridional circulation (SMC). Fundamentally, the SMC can be seen as a large-scale sea-breeze circulation driven by sea surface temperature gradients when deep convection is absent in the ITCZ region. A simple model of this circulation is presented. Using observed values, the sea-breeze model shows that the pressure gradient above the boundary can indeed reverse, leading to the pressure force that drives the shallow return flow out of the ITCZ. The Weather Research and Forecast Model (WRF) is used to simulate an idealized Hadley circulation driven by moist convection in a tropical channel. The SMC is reproduced, with reasonable similarity to the circulation observed in the east Pacific. The simulations confirm that the SMC is driven by a reversal of the pressure gradient above the boundary layer, and that the return flow is strongest when deep convection is absent in the ITCZ, and weakest when deep convection is active. The model also shows that moisture transport out of the ITCZ region is far greater in the low-level shallow return flow than in the high-altitude return flow associated with the deep overturning, and that a budget for water transport in and out of the ITCZ region is grossly incomplete without it. Much of the moisture carried in the shallow return flow is recycled into the boundary layer, but does not appear to contribute to enhanced cloudiness in the subtropical stratocumulus poleward of the ITCZ. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, the effect of a simple convection scheme on the zonally averaged tropical general circulation is examined within an idealized moist GCM to obtain broad classifications of the influence of convection on the Tropics. This is accomplished with a simplified convection scheme in the style of Betts and Miller. The scheme is utilized in a moist GCM with simplified physical parameterizations (gray radiation, with zonally symmetric, slab mixed layer ocean boundary conditions). Comparisons are made with simulations without a convection scheme [i.e., with large-scale condensation (LSC) only], with the moist convective adjustment (MCA) parameterization, and with various formulations and parameter sets with a simplified Betts–Miller (SBM) scheme. With the control run using the SBM scheme, the Tropics become quieter and less dependent on horizontal resolution as compared with the LSC or MCA simulations. The Hadley circulation mass transport is significantly reduced with the SBM scheme, as is the ITCZ precipitation. An important factor determining this behavior is the parameterization of shallow convection: without shallow convection, the convection scheme is largely ineffective at preventing convection from occurring at the grid scale. The sensitivities to convection scheme parameters are also examined. The simulations are remarkably insensitive to the convective relaxation time, and only mildly sensitive to the relative humidity of the reference profile, provided significant large-scale condensation is not allowed to occur. The changes in the zonally averaged tropical circulation that occur in all the simulations are understood based on the convective criteria of the schemes and the gross moist stability of the atmosphere. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The seasonal variation of the North Equatorial Countercurrent (NECC) in the tropical Atlantic Ocean is investigated by using a linear, one-layer reduced-gravity ocean model and by analyzing sea surface height (SSH) data from Ocean Topography Experiment (TOPEX)/Poseidon (T/P) altimeters. The T/P data indicate that the seasonal variability of the NECC geostrophic transport, between 3° and 10°N, is dominated by SSH changes in the southern flank of the current. Since the southern boundary of the NECC is located partially within the equatorial waveguide, the SSH variation there can be influenced considerably by the equatorial dynamics. Therefore, it is hypothesized that the wind stress forcing along the equator is the leading driver for the seasonal cycle of the NECC transport. The wind stress curl in the NECC region is an important but smaller contributor. This hypothesis is tested by several sensitivity experiments that are designed to separate the two forcing mechanisms. In the first sensitivity run, a wind stress field that has a zero curl is used to force the ocean model. The result shows that the NECC geostrophic transport retains most of its seasonal variability. The same happens in another experiment in which the seasonal wind stress is applied only within a narrow band along the equator outside the NECC range. To further demonstrate the role of equatorial waves, another experiment was run in which the wind stress in the Southern Hemisphere is altered so that the model excludes hemispherically symmetrical waves (Kelvin waves and odd-numbered meridional modes of equatorial Rossby waves) and instead excites only the antisymmetrical equatorial Rossby modes. The circulation in the northern tropical ocean, including the NECC, is affected considerably even though the local wind stress there remains unchanged. All these appear to support the hypothesis presented in this paper. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper is designed to be an annual summary of the Eastern Hemisphere tropical cyclones of 1995. The tropical cyclone statistics presented are those of the Joint Typhoon Warning Center, Guam. The text focuses primarily upon the tropical cyclones that occurred in the western North Pacific during 1995; however, since the area of responsibility of the Joint Typhoon Warning Center covers the entire Eastern Hemisphere, brief summaries of the tropical cyclone activity within the north Indian Ocean, south Indian Ocean, and the southwest Pacific are also presented. Overall, 1995 was a relatively quiet year in the Eastern Hemisphere: the 22 tropical cyclones of the Southern Hemisphere were only one shy of the record low of 21, and for the first time since 1988 the number of tropical storms and typhoons in the western North Pacific was below normal. In the western North Pacific, there was a marked shift to the west of the preferred region for the genesis and development of tropical cyclones. This is consistent with the end of persistent large-scale circulation anomalies characteristic of the warm phase of the El Nino--Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the onset (during 1995) of weak ENSO cold-phase anomalies (i.e., La Nina conditions). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Atmosphere-only CMIP5 idealized climate experiments with quadrupling of atmospheric CO2 are analyzed to understand the fast response of the tropical overturning circulation to this forcing and the main mechanism of this response. A new metric for the circulation, based on pressure velocity in the subsidence regions, is defined, taking advantage of the dynamical stability of these regions and their reduced sensitivity to the GCM's cloud and precipitation parameterization schemes. This definition permits us to decompose the circulation change into a sum of relative changes in subsidence area, static stability, and heating rate. A comparative analysis of aqua- and Earth-like planet experiments reveals the effect of the land–sea contrast on the total change in circulation. On average, under the influence of CO2 increase without surface warming, the atmosphere radiatively cools less, and this drives the 3%–4% slowdown of the tropical circulation. Even in an Earth-like planet setup, the circulation weakening is dominated by the radiatively driven changes in the subsidence regions over the oceans. However, the land–sea differential heating contributes to the vertical pattern of the circulation weakening by driving the vertical expansion of the tropics. It is further found that the surface warming would, independently of the CO2 effect, lead to up to a 12% slowdown in circulation, dominated by the enhancement of the static stability in the upper troposphere. The two mechanisms identified above combine in the coupled experiment with abrupt quadrupling, causing a circulation slowdown (focused in the upper troposphere) of up to 18%. Here, the independent effect of CO2 has a considerable impact only at time scales less than one year, being overtaken quickly by the impact of surface warming. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Subtropical stationary waves may act as an important bridge connecting regional hydrological extremes with global warming. Observations show that the boreal summer stationary-wave amplitude (SWA) had a significantly positive trend during 1979–2013. Here, we investigate the past and future responses of SWA to increasing climate forcing using 31 CMIP5 GCMs. Twenty-four out of 31 models display a consistent increase in climatological-mean SWA in response to warming. To assess the detectability of a trend in SWA, we compared half-century trends between preindustrial control (PiControl), historical, and RCP8.5 simulations. The probability distribution of the normalized SWA trend obtained through bootstrapping shows neither positive nor negative tendencies of SWA trend in PiControl simulations. Twenty-two of 31 historical simulations exhibit a positive SWA trend. The SWA trends in 26 of 31 RCP8.5 simulations are positive. The finding supports the hypothesis that the positive SWA trend is at least partially driven by increasing external forcing. The linear regression of interannual variability in hydrological extreme frequency on SWA suggests that high SWA is related to increased heavy-rainfall-day frequency over South Asia, the Indochinese Peninsula, and southern China (SA-EA), and to increased dry-spell-day frequency over the northwestern and central United States (NUS) and the southern United States and Mexico (SUS-MEX). The projected amplification of SWA, combined with the relationships between SWA and number of hydrological extremes, may partially explain projected increases in the number of dry spells over NUS and SUS-MEX and the number of heavy-rainfall days over SA-EA. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Extratropical cyclones (ETCs) are responsible for most of the large storm-surge events in the northeastern United States. This study uses the ECMWF atmospheric reanalysis of the twentieth century (ERA-20C) and NOAA tide gauge data to examine the local, regional, and large-scale atmospheric circulation accompanying the 100 largest ETC-driven surge events at three locations along the northeastern coast of the United States: Sewells Point (Norfolk), Virginia; the Battery (New York City), New York; and Boston, Massachusetts. Results from a k-means cluster analysis indicate that the largest surges are generated when slowly propagating ETCs encounter a strong anticyclone, which produces a tighter pressure gradient and longer duration of onshore winds. The strength of the anticyclone is evident in the middle and upper troposphere where there are positive 500-hPa geopotential height anomalies overlying the surface anticyclone for the majority of clusters and nearly all of the five biggest surge events. Multiple clusters feature a slower-than-average storm and a strong anticyclone, indicating that various circulation scenarios can produce a large storm surge. This favorable environment for large surge events is influenced by well-known modes of climate variability including El Niño, the Arctic Oscillation (AO), the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and the Pacific-North American (PNA) pattern. ETCs are more likely to produce a large surge during El Niño conditions, which have been shown to enhance the East Coast storm track. At Boston and the Battery, maximum surge occurs preferentially during the positive phase of PNA and the negative phases of AO/NAO. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the tropics, the atmospheric circulation response to sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies is a crucial part of the tropical air-sea interaction-the primary process of tropical climate. How it will change under global warming is of great importance to tropical climate change. Here, it is shown that the atmospheric vertical circulation response to local SST anomalies will likely be weakened under global warming using 28 selected models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. The weakening of the circulation response to SST anomalies is closely tied to the increased atmospheric stability under global warming, which increases at the same rate as the circulation response decreases-around 8% for 1 K of tropical-mean SST warming. The spatial pattern of background warming can modify-especially in the equatorial central-eastern Pacific-the spatial distribution of the changes in the circulation response. The atmospheric response to SST anomalies may increase where the local background warming is pronouncedly greater than the tropical mean. The general weakening of the atmospheric circulation response to SST anomalies leads to a decreased circulation response to the structured variability of tropical SST anomalies, such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation and the Indian Ocean dipole. The decreased circulation response will offset some of the enhancement of the tropical rainfall response to these SST modes as a result of global-warming-induced moisture increase and also implies a decreased amplitude of the tropical air-sea interaction modes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The purpose of this study is to use the PERSIANN-Climate Data Record (PERSIANN-CDR) dataset to evaluate the ability of 32 CMIP5 models in capturing the behavior of daily extreme precipitation estimates globally. The daily long-term historical global PERSIANN-CDR allows for a global investigation of eight precipitation indices that is unattainable with other datasets. Quantitative comparisons against CPC daily gauge; GPCP One-Degree Daily (GPCP1DD); and TRMM 3B42, version 7 (3B42V7), datasets show the credibility of PERSIANN-CDR to be used as the reference data for global evaluation of CMIP5 models. This work uniquely defines different study regions by partitioning global land areas into 25 groups based on continent and climate zone type. Results show that model performance in warm temperate and equatorial regions in capturing daily extreme precipitation behavior is largely mixed in terms of index RMSE and correlation, suggesting that these regions may benefit from weighted model averaging schemes or model selection as opposed to simple model averaging. The three driest climate regions (snow, polar, and arid) exhibit high correlations and low RMSE values when compared against PERSIANN-CDR estimates, with the exceptions of the cold regions showing an inability to capture the 95th and 99th percentile annual total precipitation characteristics. A comprehensive assessment of each model's performance in each continent-climate zone defined group is provided as a guide for both model developers to target regions and processes that are not yet fully captured in certain climate types, and for climate model output users to be able to select the models and/or the study areas that may best fit their applications of interest. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The lower-atmospheric circulation in the tropics is strongly influenced by large-scale daily variations referred to as atmospheric solar tides. Most earlier studies have used simplified linear theory to explain daily variations in the tropics. The present study employs a comprehensive limited-area atmospheric model and revisits some longstanding issues related to atmospheric tidal dynamics. The tides in the tropical lower atmosphere are realistically simulated in the control experiment with a near-global (75°S-75°N) version of the model. Sensitivity experiments with different aspects of the solar heating suppressed showed that the semidiurnal ( S2) tide near the surface can be attributed roughly equally to stratospheric and tropospheric direct solar heating and that the diurnal ( S1) tide is excited almost entirely by tropospheric direct solar heating as well as solar heating of Earth's surface. Linear theory with forcing only by direct radiative heating predicts the phase of the S2 barometric oscillation should be ~0910 LT versus the ~0945 LT phase seen in low-latitude observations. The roles of (i) convective and latent heating and (ii) mechanical dissipation, in determining the S2 phase, are assessed in the model. It is found that the former effect delays the phase by ~25 min and the latter by ~5 min; these two effects together explain the observed phase. When the model is run in limited-area domains comparable to those used in typical regional climate studies the S2, but not S1, tide is found to be significantly weaker than observed, even using atmospheric reanalysis data to drive the lateral boundaries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The main field activities of the Coordinated Airborne Studies in the Tropics (CAST) campaign took place in the west Pacific during January-February 2014. The field campaign was based in Guam (13.5°N, 144.8°E), using the U.K. Facility for Airborne Atmospheric Measurements (FAAM) BAe-146 atmospheric research aircraft, and was coordinated with the Airborne Tropical Tropopause Experiment (ATTREX) project with an unmanned Global Hawk and the Convective Transport of Active Species in the Tropics (CONTRAST) campaign with a Gulfstream V aircraft. Together, the three aircraft were able to make detailed measurements of atmospheric structure and composition from the ocean surface to 20 km. These measurements are providing new information about the processes influencing halogen and ozone levels in the tropical west Pacific, as well as the importance of trace-gas transport in convection for the upper troposphere and stratosphere. The FAAM aircraft made a total of 25 flights in the region between 1°S and 14°N and 130° and 155°E. It was used to sample at altitudes below 8 km, with much of the time spent in the marine boundary layer. It measured a range of chemical species and sampled extensively within the region of main inflow into the strong west Pacific convection. The CAST team also made ground-based measurements of a number of species (including daily ozonesondes) at the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Program site on Manus Island, Papua New Guinea (2.1°S, 147.4°E). This article presents an overview of the CAST project, focusing on the design and operation of the west Pacific experiment. It additionally discusses some new developments in CAST, including flights of new instruments on board the Global Hawk in February-March 2015. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Previous research has shown that subtropical and extratropical circulations are linked seasonally and in response to climate change. In particular, amplification (weakening) of subtropical stationary eddies is linked to a poleward (equatorward) shift of the extratropical circulation in the Northern Hemisphere. Here the mechanisms linking subtropical and extratropical circulation responses to climate change are examined using prescribed sea surface temperature aquaplanet simulations with a subtropical zonal asymmetry that mimics land-ocean contrasts. A poleward circulation shift occurs in response to uniform global warming even in the presence of subtropical stationary eddies. Subtropical stationary eddies exhibit a weak response to global warming; however, regional warming of temperature (or equivalent potential temperature) over land (ocean) increases (decreases) stationary eddy amplitude and shifts the extratropical circulation poleward (equatorward), consistent with comprehensive models. The stationary eddy response to regional warming is connected to regional moist entropy gradient, energy input to the atmosphere, and gross moist stability changes. Stationary eddy amplitude changes directly affect momentum and moist static energy transport following linear wave and mixing length theories. The transport changes do not follow a fixed-diffusivity framework. Extratropical transient eddy transport changes compensate ~70%-90% of the subtropical stationary eddy transport response. This assumes exact subtropical compensation accounts for a large fraction of the meridional shift of the extratropical circulation in response to regional climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study explores the dependence of the climate response on the altitude of black carbon in the northern subtropics by employing an atmospheric general circulation model coupled to an aquaplanet mixed layer ocean, with a focus on the pattern changes in the temperature, hydrological cycle, and large-scale circulation. Black carbon added below or within the subtropical low-level clouds tends to suppress convection, which reduces the low cloud amount, resulting in a positive cloud radiative forcing. The warmer northern subtropics then induce a northward shift of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) and a poleward expansion of the descending branch of the northern Hadley cell. As the black carbon-induced local warming is amplified by clouds and is advected by the anomalous Hadley circulation, the entire globe gets warmer. In contrast, black carbon added near the surface increases the buoyancy of air parcels to enhance convection, leading to an increase in the subtropical low cloud amount and a negative cloud radiative forcing. The temperature increase remains local to where black carbon is added and elsewhere decreases, so that the ITCZ is shifted southward and the descending branch of the northern Hadley cell contracts equatorward. Consistent with previous studies, the authors demonstrate that the climate response to black carbon is highly sensitive to the vertical distribution of black carbon relative to clouds; hence, models have to accurately compute the vertical transport of black carbon to enhance their skill in simulating the climatic effects of black carbon. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) can shift meridionally on seasonal and longer time scales. Previous studies have shown that the latitude of the ITCZ is negatively correlated with cross-equatorial atmospheric energy transport. For example, the ITCZ shifts southward as the Northern Hemisphere cools and the northward cross-equatorial energy transport strengthens in response. It has remained unclear what controls the sensitivity of the ITCZ position to cross-equatorial energy transport and what other factors may lead to shifts of the ITCZ position. Here it is shown that the sensitivity of the ITCZ position to cross-equatorial energy transport depends on the net energy input to the equatorial atmosphere: the net radiative energy input minus any energy uptake by the oceans. Changes in this energy input can also lead to ITCZ shifts. The cross-equatorial energy transport is related through a series of approximations to interhemispheric asymmetries in the near-surface temperature distribution. The resulting theory of the ITCZ position is tested in idealized general circulation model simulations with a slab ocean as lower boundary condition. In the simulations, cross-equatorial energy transport increases under global warming (primarily because extratropical latent energy fluxes strengthen), and this shifts the ITCZ poleward. The ITCZ shifts equatorward if primarily the tropics warm in response to an increased net energy input to the equatorial atmosphere. The results have implications for explaining the varied response of the ITCZ to global or primarily tropical changes in the atmospheric energy balance, such as those that occur under global warming or El Niño. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An abrupt transition from a merged jet regime to a subtropical jet regime is analyzed using a two-layer modified quasigeostrophic (QG) spherical model. Unlike the common version of QG models, this model includes advection of the zonal mean momentum by the ageostrophic mean meridional circulation, allowing for a relatively realistic momentum balance in the tropics and subtropics. The merged jet is a single jet inside the Ferrel cell created by a merging of the subtropical and eddy-driven jets, and the subtropical jet is a mainly thermally driven jet at the Hadley cell edge. The maintenance of each type of jet depends on the dominant baroclinic modes. In the merged jet regime, the spectrum is dominated by intermediate-scale (wavenumbers 4-6) fast waves at the midlatitudes that grow close to the jet maximum. In the subtropical jet regime, the spectrum is dominated by long (wavenumbers 1-3) slow westward-propagating waves at high latitudes and somewhat weaker intermediate-scale slow waves at the midlatitudes. In the subtropical jet regime, waves equilibrate at weaker amplitudes than in the merged jet regime. A mechanism is found that explains why baroclinic instability is weaker in the subtropical jet regime, although the vertical shear of the mean flow is stronger, which has to do with the lower-level potential vorticity (PV) structure. The relevance of these results to the real atmosphere seams to hold in local zonal sections but not for the zonal mean. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using an asymptotic expansion, a balance model is derived for the shallow-water equations (SWE) on the equatorial β plane that is valid for planetary-scale equatorial dynamics and includes Kelvin waves. In contrast to many theories of tropical dynamics, neither a strict balance between diabatic heating and vertical motion nor a small Froude number is required. Instead, the expansion is based on the smallness of the ratio of meridional to zonal length scales, which can also be interpreted as a separation in time scale. The leading-order model is characterized by a semigeostrophic balance between the zonal wind and meridional pressure gradient, while the meridional wind υ vanishes; the model is thus asymptotically nondivergent, and the nonzero correction to υ can be found at the next order. Importantly for applications, the diagnostic balance relations are linear for winds when inferring the wind field from mass observations and the winds can be diagnosed without direct observations of diabatic heating. The accuracy of the model is investigated through a set of numerical examples. These examples show that the diagnostic balance relations can remain valid even when the dynamics do not, and the balance dynamics can capture the slow behavior of a rapidly varying solution. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Shipboard ADCP and towed CTD measurements are presented of a near-inertial internal gravity wave radiating away from a zonal jet associated with the Subtropical Front in the North Pacific. Three-dimensional spatial surveys indicate persistent alternating shear layers sloping downward and equatorward from the front. As a result, depth-integrated ageostrophic shear increases sharply equatorward of the front. The layers have a vertical wavelength of about 250 m and a slope consistent with a wave of frequency 1.01 f. They extend at least 100 km south of the front. Time series confirm that the shear is associated with a downward-propagating near-inertial wave with frequency within 20% of f. A slab mixed layer model forced with shipboard and NCEP reanalysis winds suggests that wind forcing was too weak to generate the wave. Likewise, trapping of the near-inertial motions at the low-vorticity edge of the front can be ruled out because of the extension of the features well south of it. Instead, the authors suggest that the wave arises from an adjustment process of the frontal flow, which has a Rossby number about 0.2-0.3. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Both observational analysis and GCM simulations indicate that the tropical Walker circulation is becoming weaker and may continue to weaken as a consequence of climate change. Here, the authors use a conceptual radiative-convective equilibrium (RCE) framework to interpret the weakening of the Walker circulation as simulated by the GFDL coupled GCM. Based on the modeled lapse rate and clear-sky cooling rate profiles, the RCE framework can directly compute the change of vertical velocity in the descending branch of the Walker circulation, which agrees with the counterpart simulated by the GFDL model. The results show that the vertical structure of clear-sky radiative cooling rate QR will change in response to the increased water vapor as the globe warms. The authors explain why the change of QR is positive in the uppermost part of the troposphere (<300 hPa) and is negative for the rest of the troposphere. As a result, both the change of clear-sky cooling rate and the change of tropospheric lapse rate contribute to the weakening of circulation. The vertical velocity changes due to the two factors are comparable to each other from the top of the planetary boundary layer to 600 hPa. From 600 to 300 hPa lapse rate changes are the dominant cause of the weakening circulation. Above 300 hPa, the change due to QR is opposite to the change due to lapse rate, which forces a slight increase in vertical velocity that is seen in the model simulation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The response of the monsoonal and annual-mean Hadley circulation to orbital precession is examined in an idealized atmospheric general circulation model with a simplified representation of land surface processes in subtropical latitudes. When perihelion occurs in the summer of a hemisphere with a subtropical continent, changes in the top-of-atmosphere energy balance, together with a poleward shift of the monsoonal circulation boundary, lead to a strengthening of the monsoonal circulation. Spatial variations in surface heat capacity determine whether radiative perturbations are balanced by energy storage or by atmospheric energy fluxes. Although orbital precession does not affect annual-mean insolation, the annual-mean Hadley circulation does respond to orbital precession because its sensitivity to radiative changes varies over the course of the year: the monsoonal circulation in summer is near the angular momentum-conserving limit and responds directly to radiative changes; whereas in winter, the circulation is affected by the momentum fluxes of extratropical eddies and is less sensitive to radiative changes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Dominica Experiment (DOMEX) took place in the eastern Caribbean from 4 April to 10 May 2011 with 21 research flights of the Wyoming King Air and several other observing systems. The goal was an improved understanding of the physics of convective orographic precipitation in the tropics. Two types of convection were found. During a period of weak trade winds, diurnal thermal convection was seen over Dominica. This convection caused little precipitation but carried aloft air with island-derived aerosol and depleted CO[sub 2]. During periods of strong trades, mechanically forced convection over the windward slopes brought heavy rain to the high terrain. This convection was "seeded" by trade-wind cumuli or neutrally buoyant cool wet patches of air. In this mechanically forced convection, air parcels did not touch the island surface to gain buoyancy so no island-derived tracers were lofted. With fewer aerosols, the mean cloud droplet diameter increased from 15 to 25 µm. Plunging airflow and a wake were found in the lee of Dominica. The DOMEX dataset will advance our understanding and test our theories of cumulus triggering and aerosol influence on precipitation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

High-amplitude convectively coupled equatorial atmospheric Kelvin waves (CCKWs) are explored over the tropical Atlantic during the boreal summer (1989-2009). Focus is given to the atmospheric environmental conditions that are important for tropical cyclogenesis. CCKWs are characterized by deep westerly vertical wind shear to the east of its convectively active phase and easterly vertical wind shear to the west of it. This dynamical signature increases vertical wind shear over the western tropical Atlantic ahead of the convectively active phase, and reduces vertical wind shear after its passage. The opposite is true over the eastern tropical Atlantic where the climatological vertical wind shear is easterly. Positive total column water vapor (TCWV) anomalies progress eastward with the convectively active phase of the CCKW, whereas negative TCWV anomalies progress eastward with the convectively suppressed phase. During the passage of the convectively active phase of the CCKW, a zonally oriented strip of low-level cyclonic relative vorticity is generated over the tropical Atlantic. Two days later, this strip becomes more wavelike and moves back toward the west. This signature resembles a train of westward-moving easterly waves and suggests CCKWs may influence such events. Strong CCKWs over the tropical Atlantic tend to occur during the decay of the active convection associated with the Madden-Julian oscillation over the Pacific. This relationship could be used to provide better long-range forecasts of tropical convective patterns and Atlantic tropical cyclogenesis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Equatorial planetary waves are a fundamental component of the tropical climate system. Previous studies have examined their structure in the climatological-mean circulation, their role in the climatological-mean momentum balance of the tropics, and their contribution to the climatological-mean upwelling across the tropical tropopause. In this study, the authors focus on the contribution of the equatorial planetary waves to variability in the tropical circulation about its climatological-mean state. The equatorial planetary waves that dominate the climatological mean exhibit considerable variability on intraseasonal and interannual time scales. Variability in the amplitude of the equatorial planetary waves is associated with a distinct pattern of equatorially symmetric climate variability that also emerges from empirical orthogonal function analysis of various tropical dynamical fields. Variability in the equatorial planetary waves is characterized by variations in 1) convection in the deep tropics, 2) eddy momentum flux convergence and zonal-mean zonal wind in the tropical upper troposphere, 3) the mean meridional circulation of the tropical and subtropical troposphere, 4) temperatures in the tropical lower stratosphere and subtropical troposphere of both hemispheres, and 5) the amplitude of the upper tropospheric anticyclones over the western tropical Pacific Ocean. It is argued that pulsation of the equatorial planetary waves provides an alternative framework for interpreting the response of the tropical circulation to a range of climate phenomena. Pulsation of the equatorial planetary waves is apparent in association with opposing phases of El Niño-Southern Oscillation and select phases of the Madden-Julian oscillation. Pulsation of the equatorial planetary waves also contributes to variability in measures of the width of the tropical belt. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aquaplanet simulations for a given sea surface temperature (SST) are conducted to elucidate possible roles of transient variability in the Hadley circulation and the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ). Their roles are best illustrated with globally uniform SSTs. For such SSTs, an ITCZ and a Hadley circulation that are nearly equatorially symmetric emerge spontaneously. Their strength varies over a wide range from being faint to climatologically significant depending on a tunable parameter of the model's cumulus parameterization. In some cases asymmetric Hadley circulations formed along with long-lived tropical cyclones. The tunable parameter affects the transient variability of tropical precipitation. In the runs in which well-defined near-symmetric ITCZs formed, tropical precipitation exhibited clear signatures of convectively coupled equatorial waves. The waves can explain the concentration of precipitation to the equatorial region, which induces the Hadley circulation. Also, the meridional structures of simulated ITCZs are consistent with the distribution of convergence/divergence associated with dominant equatorial wave modes. Even when the pole-equator temperature gradient is introduced, the dependence of the strength of the circulation to transient disturbances remains. Therefore, transient variability may have a broader impact on tropical climate and its numerical modeling than has been thought. The reason that a wide variety of circulation is possible when the SST gradient is weak is because the distribution of latent heating can be interactively adjusted while a circulation is formed. Angular momentum budget does not provide an effective thermodynamic constraint, since baroclinic instability redistributes the angular momentum. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent studies with climate models have demonstrated the power of extratropical forcing in causing the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) to shift northward or southward, and paleoclimate data support the notion that there have been large shifts in the ITCZ over time. It is shown that similar notions apply to slab ocean simulations of global warming. Nine slab ocean model simulations from different modeling centers show a wide range of ITCZ shifts in response to doubling carbon dioxide concentrations, which are experienced in a rather zonally symmetric way in the tropics. Using an attribution strategy based on fundamental energetic constraints, it is shown that responses of clouds and ice in the extratropics explain much of the range of ITCZ responses. There are also some positive feedbacks within the tropics due to increasing water vapor content and high clouds in the new ITCZ location, which amplify the changes driven from the extratropics. This study shows the clear importance of simulating extratropical climate responses with fidelity, because in addition to their local importance, the impacts of these climate responses have a large nonlocal impact on rainfall in the tropics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Satellite data are analyzed to explore the thermodynamic evolution of tropical and subtropical atmospheres prior and subsequent to moist convection in order to offer an observational test bed for convective adjustment, which is central to the quasi-equilibrium hypothesis. Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and Aqua satellite measurements are projected onto a composite temporal sequence over an hourly to daily time scale by exploiting the temporal gap between the local satellite overpasses, which changes from one day to another. The atmospheric forcing and response to convection are investigated separately for deep convective and congestus clouds. In the deep tropics, systematic moisture transport from the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) to the free troposphere is evident in association with deep convection. The quick ABL ventilation suggests a swift convective adjustment but is preceded by a steady buildup of ABL moisture, which does not imply continuous adjustment to equilibrium. The evolution of convective available potential energy (CAPE) is controlled not only by the ABL moisture but also largely by a coincident ABL cooling linked with a bipolar anomaly of tropospheric temperature. The ABL moisture and temperature effects together lead to a rapid drop of CAPE for 12 h preceding convection, followed by a restoring phase that emerges as the cool anomaly recovers for a day or two. When moist convection is brought by congestus clouds with no deep convection nearby, CAPE gently increases over a period of 1-2 days until congestus occurs and then declines as slowly, suggestive of no efficient convective adjustment. The subtropical atmosphere shows no sign of convective adjustment whether or not vigorous convection is present. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The effect of an inland plateau on the tropical sea breeze is considered in terms of idealized numerical experiments, with a particular emphasis on offshore effects. The sea breeze is modeled as the response to an oscillating interior heat source over land. The parameter space for the calculations is defined by a nondimensional wind speed, a scaled plateau height, and the nondimensional heating amplitude. The experiments show that the inland plateau tends to significantly strengthen the land-breeze part of the circulation, as compared to the case without terrain. The strengthening of the land breeze is tied to blocking of the sea-breeze density current during the warm phase of the cycle. The blocked sea breeze produces a pool of relatively cold, stagnant air at the base of the plateau, which in turn produces a stronger land-breeze density current the following morning. Experiments show that the strength of the land breeze increases with the terrain height, at least for moderate values of the height. For very large terrain, the sea breeze is apparently blocked entirely, and further increases in terrain height lead to only small changes in land-breeze intensity and propagation. Details of the dynamics are described in terms of the transition from linear to nonlinear heating amplitudes, as well as for cases with and without background winds. The results show that for the present experiments, significant offshore effects are tied to nonlinear frontal propagation, as opposed to quasi-linear wave features. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change experiments run on Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)-class numerical models consistently suggest that increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases will lead to a poleward shift of the midlatitude jets and their associated eddy fluxes of heat and potential vorticity (PV). Experiments run on idealized models suggest that the poleward contraction of the jets can be traced to the effects of increased latent heating and thus locally enhanced warming in the tropical troposphere. Here the authors provide new insights into the dynamics of the circulation response to tropical tropospheric heating using transient experiments in an idealized general circulation model. It is argued that the response of the midlatitude jets to tropical heating is driven fundamentally by 1) the projection of the heating onto the meridional slope of the lower tropospheric isentropic surfaces, and 2) a diffusive model of the eddy fluxes of heat and PV. In the lower and middle troposphere, regions where the meridional slope of the isentropes (i.e., the baroclinicity) is increased are marked by anomalously poleward eddy fluxes of heat, and vice versa. Near the tropopause, regions where the meridional gradients in PV are increased are characterized by anomalously equatorward eddy fluxes of PV, and vice versa. The barotropic component of the response is shown to be closely approximated by the changes in the lower-level heat fluxes. As such, the changes in the eddy fluxes of momentum near the tropopause appear to be driven primarily by the changes in wave generation in the lower troposphere. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Despite the fact that latent heating in cloud systems drives many atmospheric circulations, including tropical cyclones, little is known of its magnitude and structure, largely because of inadequate observations. In this work, a reasonably high-resolution (2 km), four-dimensional airborne Doppler radar retrieval of the latent heat of condensation/evaporation is presented for rapidly intensifying Hurricane Guillermo (1997). Several advancements in the basic retrieval algorithm are shown, including 1) analyzing the scheme within the dynamically consistent framework of a numerical model, 2) identifying algorithm sensitivities through the use of ancillary data sources, and 3) developing a precipitation budget storage term parameterization. The determination of the saturation state is shown to be an important part of the algorithm for updrafts of ~5 m s−−1 or less. The uncertainties in the magnitude of the retrieved heating are dominated by errors in the vertical velocity. Using a combination of error propagation and Monte Carlo uncertainty techniques, biases are found to be small, and randomly distributed errors in the heating magnitude are ~16%% for updrafts greater than 5 m s−−1 and ~156%% for updrafts of 1 m s−−1. Even though errors in the vertical velocity can lead to large uncertainties in the latent heating field for small updrafts/downdrafts, in an integrated sense the errors are not as drastic. In Part II, the impact of the retrievals is assessed by inserting the heating into realistic numerical simulations at 2-km resolution and comparing the generated wind structure to the Doppler radar observations of Guillermo. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The balanced contribution to the intensification of a tropical cyclone simulated in the three-dimensional, nonhydrostatic, full-physics tropical cyclone model version 4 (TCM4), in particular the spinup of the outer-core circulation, is investigated by solving the Sawyer--Eliassen equation and by computing terms in the azimuthal-mean tangential wind tendency equation. Results demonstrate that the azimuthal-mean secondary circulation (radial and vertical circulation) and the spinup of the midtropospheric outer-core circulation in the simulated tropical cyclone are well captured by balance dynamics. The midtropospheric inflow develops in response to diabatic heating in mid--upper-tropospheric stratiform (anvil) clouds outside the eyewall in active spiral rainbands and transports absolute angular momentum inward to spin up the outer-core circulation. Although the azimuthal-mean diabatic heating rate in the eyewall is the largest, its contribution to radial winds and thus the spinup of outer-core circulation in the middle troposphere is rather weak. This is because the high inertial stability in the inner-core region resists the radial inflow in the middle troposphere, limiting the inward transport of absolute angular momentum. The result thus suggests that diabatic heating in spiral rainbands is the key to the continued growth of the storm-scale circulation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The large-scale tropical atmospheric circulation is analyzed in idealized aquaplanet simulations using an atmospheric general circulation model. Idealized sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are used as lower-boundary conditions to provoke modifications of the atmospheric general circulation. Results show that 1) an increase in the meridional SST gradients of the tropical region drastically strengthens the Hadley circulation intensity, 2) the presence of equatorial zonal SST anomalies weakens the Hadley cells and reinforces the Walker circulation, and 3) a uniform SST warming causes small and nonsystematic changes of the Hadley and Walker circulations. In all simulations, the jet streams strengthen and move equatorward as the Hadley cells strengthen and become narrower. Some relevant mechanisms are then proposed to interpret the large range of behaviors obtained from the simulations. First, the zonal momentum transport by transient and stationary eddies is shown to modulate the eddy-driven jets, which causes the poleward displacements of the jet streams. Second, it is found that the Hadley circulation adjusts to the changes of the poleward moist static energy flux and gross moist static stability, associated with the geographical distribution of convection and midlatitude eddies. The Walker circulation intensity corresponds to the zonal moist static energy transport induced by the zonal anomalies of the turbulent fluxes and radiative cooling. These experiments provide some hints to understand a few robust changes of the atmospheric circulation simulated by ocean--atmosphere coupled models for future and past climates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Tropical cyclogenesis is attributed to an equatorial wave when the filtered rainfall anomaly exceeds a threshold value at the genesis location. It is argued that 0 mm day−−1 (simply requiring a positive anomaly) is too small a threshold because unrelated noise can produce a positive anomaly. A threshold of 6 mm day−−1 is too large because two-thirds of storms would have no precursor disturbance. Between these extremes, consistent results are found for a range of thresholds from 2 to 4 mm day−−1. Roughly twice as many tropical cyclones are attributed to tropical depression (TD)-type disturbances as to equatorial Rossby waves, mixed Rossby--gravity waves, or Kelvin waves. The influence of the Madden--Julian oscillation (MJO) is even smaller. The use of variables such as vorticity and vertical wind shear in other studies gives a larger contribution for the MJO. It is suggested that its direct influence on the rainfall in forming tropical cyclones is less than for other variables. The impacts of tropical cyclone--related precipitation anomalies are also presented. Tropical cyclones can contribute more than 20%% of the warm-season rainfall and 50%% of its total variance. The influence of tropical cyclones on the equatorial wave spectrum is generally small. The exception occurs in shorter-wavelength westward-propagating waves, for which tropical cyclones represent up to 27%% of the variance. Tropical cyclones also significantly contaminate wave-filtered rainfall anomalies in their immediate vicinity. To mitigate this effect, the tropical cyclone--related anomalies were removed before filtering in this study. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using high-resolution cloud-resolving simulations with different CO2 concentrations, local precipitation fluxes are found to obey Clausius--Clapeyron (CC) scaling. Previous studies of the effect of CO2 concentration on precipitation extremes have used general circulation models, which are poor platforms for studying tropical convection because convection is parameterized. In idealized cloud-resolving simulations, it is possible to identify not only the changes in local precipitation fluxes, but also the factors responsible for those changes. There are many properties of convection that can change as the atmosphere warms, each of which could produce deviations from CC scaling. These properties include the effective water-vapor gradient, cloud pressure depth, and cloud velocity. A simple theory is developed that predicts the changes in these properties consistent with CC scaling. Convection in the cloud-resolving simulations is found to change as predicted by this theory, leading to an ∼∼20%% increase in local precipitation fluxes when the CO2 concentration is doubled. Overall, an increase in CO2 leads to more vigorous convection, composed of clouds that are wider, taller, and faster. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A study of the convectively coupled Kelvin wave (CCKW) properties from a series of atmospheric general circulation model experiments over observed sea surface temperatures is presented. The simulations are performed with two different convection schemes (a mass flux scheme and a moisture convergence scheme) using a range of convective triggers, which inhibit convection in different ways. Increasing the strength of the convective trigger leads to significantly slower and more intense CCKW activity in both convection schemes. With the most stringent trigger in the mass flux scheme, the waves have realistic speed and variance and also exhibit clear shallow-to-deep-to-stratiform phase tilts in the vertical, as in observations. While adding a moisture trigger results in vertical phase tilts in the mass flux scheme, the moisture convergence scheme CCKWs show no such phase tilts even with a stringent convective trigger. The changes in phase speed in the simulations are interpreted using the concept of ''gross moist stability'' (GMS). Inhibition of convection results in a more unstable tropical atmosphere in the time mean, and convection is shallower on average as well. Both of these effects lead to a smaller GMS, which leads to slower propagation of the waves, as expected from theoretical studies. Effects such as changes in radiative heating, atmospheric humidity, and vertical velocity following the wave have a relatively small effect on the GMS as compared with the time mean state determined by the convection scheme. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An initial-value problem is employed with a GCM to investigate the role of the convectively driven Rossby and Kelvin waves for tropopause transition layer (TTL) upwelling in the tropics. The convective heating is mimicked with a prescribed heating field, and the Lagrangian upwelling is identified by examining the evolution of passive tracer fields whose initial distribution is identical to the initial heating field. This study shows that an overturning circulation, induced by the tropical Rossby waves, is capable of generating the TTL upwelling. Even when the heating is placed in the eastern Pacific, the TTL upwelling occurs only over the western tropical Pacific, indicating that the background flow plays a crucial role. The results from a Rossby wave source analysis suggest that a key feature of the background flow is the strong absolute vorticity gradient associated with the Asian subtropical jet. In addition, static stability is relatively weak over the western Pacific, suggesting that this may also contribute to the TTL upwelling in that region. The background flow also modulates the internal Kelvin waves in such a manner that the coldest region in the TTL (resembling the observed 'cold trap') occurs over the western tropical Pacific. As a consequence, the upwelling air, induced by the meridional momentum flux of the Rossby wave, passes through the cold trap generated by the Kelvin wave. Since in reality the background flow is shaped by the convective heating, the climatological western tropical Pacific heating is ultimately responsible for both the TTL upwelling and the cold trap; however, both processes are realized indirectly through its impact on the background flow and the generation of the tropical waves. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Atmospheric circulation changes during boreal winter of the second half of the twentieth century exhibit a trend toward the positive polarity of both the Northern Hemisphere annular mode (NAM) and the Southern Hemisphere annular mode (SAM). This has occurred in concert with other trends in the climate system, most notably a warming of the Indian Ocean. This study explores whether the tropical Indian Ocean warming played a role in forcing these annular trends. Five different atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs) are forced with an idealized, transient warming of Indian Ocean sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA); the results of this indicate that the warming contributed to the annular trend in the NH but offset the annular trend in SH. The latter result implies that the Indian Ocean warming may have partly cancelled the influence of the stratospheric ozone depletion over the southern polar area, which itself forced a trend toward the positive phase of the SAM. Diagnosis of the physical mechanisms for the annular responses indicates that the direct impact of the diabatic heating induced by the Indian Ocean warming does not account for the annular response in the extratropics. Instead, interactions between the forced stationary wave anomalies and transient eddies is key for the formation of annular structures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Solutions of an axially symmetric inviscid shallow-water model (SWM) on the earth forced by equinoctial differential heating are constructed using numerical integration of the time-dependent equations and analysis of their steady states. The study also maps the physical initial conditions and parameter values for which the solutions approach steady states at long times, demonstrating strong dependence of the SWM on initial conditions. The model admits states of uniform angular momentum, including superrotation, in the tropics and radiative equilibrium at high latitudes. The asymptotic properties of the subtropical jets and tropical fluxes are explicitly calculated and it is shown that all solutions of the previously studied nearly inviscid theories are particular solutions of the present theory. The model’s results relate the location and intensity of the subtropical jet in the steady states to properties of the SWM on a sphere, such as the conservation of angular momentum. The exact form of the differential heating is secondary in determining these properties and its main role is to transform any initial state to the vicinity of the steady states. When mass is assumed to be supplied to the fluid from an underlying motionless layer (this model is termed the 1½-SWM), the angular momentum in the tropics is not uniform (so the local Rossby number is smaller than 1), the height of the tropopause is nearly uniform there, the steady states do not depend on the initial conditions, and the zonal velocity vanishes on the equator. Accurate and simple estimates that are determined only by the value of a thermal Rossby number are derived in this case for the location and intensity of the subtropical jet. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A simplified general circulation model has been used to investigate the chain of causality whereby changes in tropospheric circulation and temperature are produced in response to stratospheric heating perturbations. Spinup ensemble experiments have been performed to examine the evolution of the tropospheric circulation in response to such perturbations. The primary aim of these experiments is to investigate the possible mechanisms whereby a tropospheric response to changing solar activity over the 11-yr solar cycle could be produced in response to heating of the equatorial lower stratosphere. This study therefore focuses on a stratospheric heating perturbation in which the heating is largest in the tropics. For comparison, experiments are also performed in which the stratosphere is heated uniformly at all latitudes and in which it is heated preferentially in the polar region. Thus, the mechanisms discussed have a wider relevance for the impact of stratospheric perturbations on the troposphere. The results demonstrate the importance of changing eddy momentum fluxes in driving the tropospheric response. This is confirmed by the lack of a similar response in a zonally symmetric model with fixed eddy forcing. Furthermore, it is apparent that feedback between the tropospheric eddy fluxes and tropospheric circulation changes is required to produce the full model response. The quasigeostrophic index of refraction is used to diagnose the cause of the changes in eddy behavior. It is demonstrated that the latitudinal extent of stratospheric heating is important in determining the direction of displacement of the tropospheric jet and storm track. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The condition of convective neutrality is assessed in the troposphere by calculating the saturation potential vorticity P* from reanalysis data. Regions of the atmosphere in which saturation entropy is constant along isosurfaces of absolute angular momentum, a state indicative of slantwise-convective neutrality, have values of P* equal to zero. In a global reanalysis dataset spanning the years 1970–2004, tropospheric regions are identified in which P* is near zero, implying that vertical convection or slantwise convection may be important in determining the local thermal stratification. Convectively neutral air masses are common not only in the Tropics but also in higher latitudes, for example, over midlatitude continents in summer and in storm tracks over oceans in winter. Large-scale eddies appear to stabilize parts of the lower troposphere, particularly in winter. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Both the ECMWF and the NCEP–NCAR reanalyses show a strengthening of the atmospheric Hadley circulation in boreal winter over the last 50 years, but the intensification is much stronger in the ECMWF than in the NCEP–NCAR reanalysis. This study focuses on the difference of these trends in the two reanalyses. It is shown that trends in the Hadley circulation in the two reanalyses differ mainly over the tropical western Pacific. This difference is found to be consistent with respective trends of the atmospheric transport of moist static energy, longwave cloud radiative forcing, and upper-level clouds in the two reanalyses. Two independent datasets of upper-level cloud cover and sea level pressure from ship-based measurements are then used to evaluate the reanalyses over the tropical western Pacific. They are found to be more consistent with the trends in the NCEP–NCAR reanalysis than those in the ECMWF reanalysis. The results suggest a weakening of the vertical motion associated with the Hadley circulation in the tropical western Pacific. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

One of the unexplained striking features of tropical convection is the observed statistical self-similarity in clusters, superclusters, and intraseasonal oscillations through complex multiscale processes ranging from the mesoscales to the equatorial synoptic scales to the intraseasonal/planetary scales. Here new multispatial-scale, multitime-scale, simplified asymptotic models are derived systematically from the equatorial primitive equations on the range of scales from mesoscale to equatorial synoptic to planetary/intraseasonal, which provide a useful analytic framework for addressing these issues. New mesoscale equatorial synoptic dynamical (MESD) models and balanced MESD (BMESD) models are developed for the multitime, multispace interaction from mesoscales to equatorial synoptic scales; new multitime versions of the intraseasonal planetary equatorial synoptic dynamics (IPESD) models are developed for multiple spatiotemporal interactions on equatorial synoptic scales and planetary scales. The mathematical character derived below for all these simplified models explicitly demonstrates that the main nonlinear interactions across scales are quasi-linear where eddy flux divergences of momentum and temperature from nonlinear advection from the smaller-scale spatiotemporal flows as well as mean source effects accumulate in time and drive the waves on the successively larger spatiotemporal scales. Furthermore, these processes that transfer energy to the next larger, longer, spatiotemporal scales are self-similar in a suitable sense established here. On the other hand, the larger scales set the environment for this transport through processes such as mean advection of the smaller scales. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The effects of convective momentum transport (CMT) on global climate simulations are examined in this study. Comparison between two sets of 20-yr (1979–98) integration using the NCAR Community Climate Model version 3 (CCM3) illustrates that the inclusion of CMT in the convection scheme systematically modifies the climate mean state over the equatorial region. The convective momentum tendencies slow down the equatorward flow at higher latitudes near the surface and weaken the equatorial convergence and convection. This reduces the convective heating and drying around the equator and produces an improved meridional distribution within the upward branch of the Hadley circulation. The major heating peak during the boreal winter is moved to south of the equator at about 10°S, which is closer to the heat budget residuals of the ECMWF reanalysis data. The responses of meridional wind to the reduced heating result in the secondary meridional circulation within the intertropical convergence zone. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using experiments with an atmospheric general circulation model, the climate impacts of a basin-scale warming or cooling of the North Atlantic Ocean are investigated. Multidecadal fluctuations with this pattern were observed during the twentieth century, and similar variations—but with larger amplitude—are believed to have occurred in the more distant past. It is found that in all seasons the response to warming the North Atlantic is strongest, in the sense of highest signal-to-noise ratio, in the Tropics. However there is a large seasonal cycle in the climate impacts. The strongest response is found in boreal summer and is associated with suppressed precipitation and elevated temperatures over the lower-latitude parts of North and South America. In August–September–October there is a significant reduction in the vertical shear in the main development region for Atlantic hurricanes. In winter and spring, temperature anomalies over land in the extratropics are governed by dynamical changes in circulation rather than simply reflecting a thermodynamic response to the warming or cooling of the ocean. The tropical climate response is primarily forced by the tropical SST anomalies, and the major features are in line with simple models of the tropical circulation response to diabatic heating anomalies. The extratropical climate response is influenced both by tropical and higher-latitude SST anomalies and exhibits nonlinear sensitivity to the sign of the SST forcing. Comparisons with multidecadal changes in sea level pressure observed in the twentieth century support the conclusion that the impact of North Atlantic SST change is most important in summer, but also suggest a significant influence in lower latitudes in autumn and winter. Significant climate impacts are not restricted to the Atlantic basin, implying that the Atlantic Ocean could be an important driver of global decadal variability. The strongest remote impacts are found to occur in the tropical Pacific region in June–August and September–November. Surface anomalies in this region have the potential to excite coupled ocean–atmosphere feedbacks, which are likely to play an important role in shaping the ultimate climate response. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Spatial structure of annular modes shows a remarkable resemblance to that of the recent trend in the observed circulation (Thompson et al.). This study performs a series of multilevel primitive equation model simulations to examine the extent to which the annular mode is capable of predicting changes in the zonal-mean flow response to external heat perturbations. Each of these simulations represents a statistically steady state and differs from each other in the values of the imposed tropical heating (&Hscript;) and high-latitude cooling (&Cscript;). Defining the annular mode as the first empirical orthogonal function (EOF1) of zonal-mean tropospheric zonal wind, it is found that the “climate predictability” is generally high in the small &Cscript;–large &Hscript; region of the parameter space, but is markedly low in the large &Cscript;–small &Hscript; region. In the former region, EOF1 represents meridional meandering of the midlatitude jet, while in the latter region, EOF1 and EOF2 combine to represent coherent poleward propagation of zonal-mean flow anomalies. It is also found that the climate predictability tends to be higher with respect to changes in &Cscript; than to changes in &Hscript;. The implications of these findings for the Southern Hemisphere climate predictability are also presented. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Cumulus congestus clouds, with moderate shortwave albedos and cloud-top temperatures near freezing, occur fairly often in the Tropics. These clouds may play an important role in the evolution of the Madden–Julian oscillation and the regulation of relative humidity in the midtroposphere. Despite this importance they are not necessarily simulated very well in global climate models. Surface remote sensing observations and soundings from the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) climate research facility at Nauru Island are coupled with a simple parcel model in order to address the following questions about these cloud types: 1) Which environmental factors play a role in determining the depth of tropical convective clouds? 2) What environmental parameters are related to entrainment rate in cumulus congestus clouds? The results presented herein suggest that at Nauru Island a drying of the midtroposphere is more likely to be responsible for limiting congestus cloud-top heights than is a stabilizing of the freezing level. It is also found that low-level CAPE and the RH profile account for the largest portion of the variance in cumulus congestus entrainment rates, consistent with the idea that entrainment rate depends on the buoyant production of turbulent kinetic energy. If the analysis is limited to cases where there is a sounding during the hour preceding the cumulus congestus observations, it is found that the low-level CAPE accounts for 85% of the total variance in entrainment rate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Observations of the poleward heat transport of the earth (H) suggest that the atmosphere is the primary transporting agent poleward of 30°, that oceanic (HO) and atmospheric (HA) contributions are comparable in the tropical belt, and that ocean transport dominates in the deep Tropics. To study the partition we express the ratio HA/HO aswhere Ψ (with subscripts A and O denoting atmosphere and ocean, respectively) is the meridional mass transport within θ layers (moist potential temperature for the atmosphere, potential temperature for the ocean), and CΔθ (C being the specific heat) is the change in energy across the circulation defined by Ψ. It is argued here that the observed partitioning of heat transport between the atmosphere and ocean is a robust feature of the earth's climate and reflects two limits: (i) dominance of atmospheric mass transport in mid-to-high latitudes (ΨA ≫ ΨO with CAΔθA ∼ COΔθO and hence HA/HO ≫ 1) and (ii) dominance of oceanic energy contrast in the Tropics (COΔθO ≫ CAΔθA with ΨA ∼ ΨO and hence HA/HO ≪ 1). Motivated by simple dynamical arguments, these ideas are illustrated through diagnosis of atmospheric reanalyses, long simulations of an ocean model, and a coupled atmosphere–ocean model of intermediate complexity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]