Search

Barry Saltzman was a giant in the fields of meteorology and climate science. A leading figure in the study of weather and climate for over 40 yr, he has frequently been referred to as the “father of modern climate theory.” Ahead of his time in many ways, Saltzman made significant contributions to our understanding of the general circulation and spectral energetics budget of the atmosphere, as well as climate change across a wide spectrum of time scales. In his endeavor to develop a unified theory of how the climate system works, he played a role in the development of energy balance models, statistical dynamical models, and paleoclimate dynamical models. He was a pioneer in developing meteorologically motivated dynamical systems, including the progenitor of Lorenz’s famous chaos model. In applying his own dynamical-systems approach to long-term climate change, he recognized the potential for using atmospheric general circulation models in a complimentary way. In 1998, he was awarded the Carl-Gustaf Rossby medal, the highest honor of the American Meteorological Society “for his life-long contributions to the study of the global circulation and the evolution of the earth’s climate.” In this paper, the authors summarize and place into perspective some of the most significant contributions that Barry Saltzman made during his long and distinguished career. This short review also serves as an introduction to the papers in this special issue of the Journal of Climate dedicated to Barry’s memory. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Parameterizations of turbulence often predict several lower-order moments and make closure assumptions for higher-order moments. In principle, the low- and high-order moments share the same probability density function (PDF). One closure assumption, then, is the shape of this family of PDFs. When the higher-order moments involve both velocity and thermodynamic scalars, often the PDF shape has been assumed to be a double or triple delta function. This is equivalent to assuming a mass-flux model with no subplume variability. However, PDF families other than delta functions can be assumed. This is because the assumed PDF methodology is fairly general. This paper proposes closures for several third- and fourth-order moments. To derive the closures, the moments are assumed to be consistent with a particular PDF family, namely, a mixture of two trivariate Gaussians. (This PDF is also called a double Gaussian or binormal PDF by some authors.) Separately from the PDF assumption, the paper also proposes a simplified relationship between scalar and velocity skewnesses. This PDF family and skewness relationship are simple enough to yield simple, analytic closure formulas relating the moments. If certain conditions hold, this set of moments is specifically realizable. By this it is meant that the set of moments corresponds to a real Gaussian-mixture PDF, one that is normalized and nonnegative everywhere. This paper compares the new closure formulas with both large eddy simulations (LESs) and closures based on double and triple delta PDFs. This paper does not implement the closures in a single-column model and test them interactively. Rather, the comparisons are diagnostic; that is, low-order moments are extracted from the LES and treated as givens that are input into the closures. This isolates errors in the closures from errors in a single-column model. The test cases are three atmospheric boundary layers: a trade wind cumulus layer, a stratocumulus layer, and a clear convective case. The new closures have shortcomings, but nevertheless are superior to the double or triple delta closures in most of the cases tested. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Several numerical simulations were performed, using a global climate model that includes a realistic land surface model, to investigate the impact of Asian tropical vegetation changes on the climate. The control simulation, under conditions of the actual vegetation, and three vegetation-change impact experiments were performed. The horizontal resolution of the model used in these simulations was finer than those of the models used in previous vegetation-change impact studies. In, which is a companion of this paper, the results of the Northern Hemisphere summer June–July–August (JJA) case were described. In the present paper, the results of the analysis concern the Northern Hemisphere winter; that is, the December–January–February (DJF) case are discussed as Part II. It was clarified, from the results of the bare soil and C4 grass experiments, that the decrease in the roughness length, and from the results of the green-less experiment, that the decrease in the latent heat flux exert strong influences on horizontal and convective atmospheric circulations and the distribution of precipitation. Other energy and water balances at the land surface are also significantly influenced by the vegetation changes. The vegetation changes were implemented only in the Asian tropical region. There were, however, possible influences of the vegetation change on the midlatitude atmospheric circulation. It was considered that the vegetation changes from the forest type to grassland or bare soil induced modifications in the Hadley and Walker circulations. In particular, the divergence/convergence anomaly pattern that appeared at the upper-atmospheric level in the C4 grass experiment was very similar to that of an ENSO event. The height anomalies at the 500-hPa level were also similar to those found in an ENSO event. The possibility exists that the deforestation of the Asian tropical region could induce similar teleconnections as those associated with ENSO events. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper offers a critical review of the topic of cloud–climate feedbacks and exposes some of the underlying reasons for the inherent lack of understanding of these feedbacks and why progress might be expected on this important climate problem in the coming decade. Although many processes and related parameters come under the influence of clouds, it is argued that atmospheric processes fundamentally govern the cloud feedbacks via the relationship between the atmospheric circulations, cloudiness, and the radiative and latent heating of the atmosphere. It is also shown how perturbations to the atmospheric radiation budget that are induced by cloud changes in response to climate forcing dictate the eventual response of the global-mean hydrological cycle of the climate model to climate forcing. This suggests that cloud feedbacks are likely to control the bulk precipitation efficiency and associated responses of the planet’s hydrological cycle to climate radiative forcings. The paper provides a brief overview of the effects of clouds on the radiation budget of the earth–atmosphere system and a review of cloud feedbacks as they have been defined in simple systems, one being a system in radiative–convective equilibrium (RCE) and others relating to simple feedback ideas that regulate tropical SSTs. The systems perspective is reviewed as it has served as the basis for most feedback analyses. What emerges is the importance of being clear about the definition of the system. It is shown how different assumptions about the system produce very different conclusions about the magnitude and sign of feedbacks. Much more diligence is called for in terms of defining the system and justifying assumptions. In principle, there is also neither any theoretical basis to justify the system that defines feedbacks in terms of global–time-mean changes in surface temperature nor is there any compelling empirical evidence to do so. The lack of maturity of feedback analysis methods also suggests that progress in understanding climate feedback will require development of alternative methods of analysis. It has been argued that, in view of the complex nature of the climate system, and the cumbersome problems encountered in diagnosing feedbacks, understanding cloud feedback will be gleaned neither from observations nor proved from simple theoretical argument alone. The blueprint for progress must follow a more arduous path that requires a carefully orchestrated and systematic combination of model and observations. Models provide the tool for diagnosing processes and quantifying feedbacks while observations provide the essential test of the model’s credibility in representing these processes. While GCM climate and NWP models represent the most complete description of all the interactions between the processes that presumably establish the main cloud feedbacks, the weak link in the use of these models lies in the cloud parameterization imbedded in them. Aspects of these parameterizations remain worrisome, containing levels of empiricism and assumptions that are hard to evaluate with current global observations. Clearly observationally based methods for evaluating cloud parameterizations are an important element in the road map to progress. Although progress in understanding the cloud feedback problem has been slow and confused by past analysis, there are legitimate reasons outlined in the paper that give hope for real progress in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Multiple linear regression models with nonlinear power terms may be applied to find relationships between interacting wave modes that may be characterized by different frequencies. Such regression techniques have been explored in other disciplines, but they have not been used in the analysis of atmospheric circulations. In this study, such a model is developed to predict anomalies of westward-moving intraseasonal precipitable water by utilizing the first through fourth powers of a time series of outgoing longwave radiation that is filtered for eastward propagation and for the temporal and spatial scales of the tropical intraseasonal oscillations. An independent and simpler compositing method is applied to show that the results of this multiple linear regression model provide a better description of the actual relationships between eastward- and westward-moving intraseasonal modes than a regression model that includes only the linear predictor. A statistical significance test is applied to the coefficients of the multiple linear regression model, and they are found to be significant over broad regions of the Tropics. Correlations between the predictors are shown to not significantly influence results for this case. Results show that this regression model reveals physical relationships between eastward- and westward-moving intraseasonal modes. The physical interpretation of these regression relationships is given in a companion paper. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Three- and four-dimensional variational assimilation (3DVAR and 4DVAR) systems have been developed for the Océan Parallélisé (OPA) ocean general circulation model of the Laboratoire d'Océanographie Dynamique et de Climatologie. They have been applied to a tropical Pacific version of OPA and cycled over the period 1993-98 using in situ temperature observations from the Global Temperature and Salinity Pilot Programme. The assimilation system is described in detail in Part I of this paper. In this paper, an evaluation of the physical properties of the analyses is undertaken. Experiments performed with a univariate optimal interpolation (OI) scheme give similar results to those obtained with the univariate 3DVAR and are thus not discussed in detail. For the 3DVAR and 4DVAR, it is shown that both the mean state and interannual variability of the thermal field are improved by the assimilation. The fit to the assimilated data in 4DVAR is also very good at timescales comparable to or shorter than the 30-day assimilation window (e.g., at the timescale of tropical instability waves), which demonstrates the effectiveness of the linearized ocean dynamics in carrying information through time. Comparisons with data that are not assimilated are also presented. The intensity of the North Equatorial Counter Current is increased (and improved) in both assimilation experiments. A large eastward bias in the surface currents appears in the eastern Pacific in the 3DVAR analyses, but not in those of 4DVAR. The large current bias is related to a spurious vertical circulation cell that develops along the equatorial strip in 3DVAR. In 4DVAR, the surface current variability is moderately improved. The salinity displays a drift in both experiments but is less accentuated in 4DVAR than in 3DVAR. The better performance of 4DVAR is attributed to multivariate aspects of the 4DVAR analysis coming from the use of the linearized ocean dynamics as a constraint. Even in... [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

One of the governing scientific objectives of the Boreal Ecosystem-Atmosphere Study (BOREAS) is the development of methods for applying process models over large spatial scales using remote sensing and other integrative modeling techniques. This paper presents the first step in a modeling strategy that focuses on scaling a point model up to the BOREAS regional scale. The objective of this paper is to compare the effect of differences in spatial resolution of land cover data to land-atmosphere model results relative to the effect of differences in land cover sensors and classification schemes. The analysis suggests that the uncertainty in model results arises mainly from the uncertainty in the land cover classification and that the lack of spatial resolution has a lower effect. Overall, an uncertainty of approximately 15percent in modeled energy and water balance fluxes and states has to be assigned because of the uncertainty in land cover classification. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The latitudinal position of the Northern Hemisphere jet stream (NHJ) modulates the occurrence and frequency of extreme weather events. Precipitation anomalies in particular are associated with NHJ variability; the resulting floods and droughts can have considerable societal and economic impacts. This study develops a new climatology of the 300-hPa NHJ using a bottom-up approach based on seasonally explicit latitudinal NHJ positions. Four seasons with coherent NHJ patterns were identified (January-February, April-May, July-August, and October-November), along with 32 longitudinal sectors where the seasonal NHJ shows strong spatial coherence. These 32 longitudinal sectors were then used as NHJ position indices to examine the influence of seasonal NHJ position on the geographical distribution of NH precipitation and temperature variability and their link to atmospheric circulation pattern. The analyses show that the NHJ indices are related to broad-scale patterns in temperature and precipitation variability, in terrestrial vegetation productivity and spring phenology, and can be used as diagnostic/prognostic tools to link ecosystem and socioeconomic dynamics to upper-level atmospheric patterns. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Cumulus (Cu) from shallow convection is one of the dominant cloud types over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) in the summer according to CloudSat- CALIPSO observations. Its thermodynamic effects on the atmospheric environment and impacts on the large-scale atmospheric circulation are studied in this paper using the Community Atmospheric Model, version 5.3 (CAM5.3). It is found that the model can reasonably simulate the unique distribution of diabatic heating and Cu over the TP. Shallow convection provides the dominant diabatic heating and drying to the lower and middle atmosphere over the TP. A sensitivity experiment indicates that without Cu over the TP, large-scale condensation and stratiform clouds would increase dramatically, which induces enhanced low-level wind and moisture convergence toward the TP, resulting in significantly enhanced monsoon circulation with remote impact on the areas far beyond the TP. Cu therefore acts as a safety valve to modulate the atmospheric environment that prevents the formation of superclusters of stratiform clouds and precipitation over the TP. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Atmospheric motion vectors (AMVs) are derived operationally at EUMETSAT from the AVHRR/3 instrument on the Polar System satellite MetOp-A since 2011. The launch of MetOp-B in 2012 allowed for doubling of the production of AMVs over the polar regions using both MetOp-A and MetOp-B satellite data. In addition to the single AVHRR polar wind product, in 2014 EUMETSAT developed a new global AVHRR wind product extracted from a pair of MetOp-A and MetOp-B images. This new product is extracted using the large overlap in the imagery data obtained from the tandem configuration of the two satellites on the same orbital plane but with a phase difference of about 50 min. The tandem configuration also provides the possibility to derive wind vectors over polar areas using a triplet of AVHRR images, keeping the same time period necessary to derive the single MetOp polar wind product but allowing for a temporal consistency check in the calculation of the AMV quality index. Three different AMV products are currently extracted from AVHRR imagery at EUMETSAT, using two or three images taken by one or two satellites having different coverage and time integration. This paper describes the scientific concept of the AVHRR wind extraction algorithm developed at EUMETSAT and presents the performances of the various AVHRR wind products. Intercomparisons of these different products highlight the role of the temporal gap between the images used to extract the wind and the impact of the consistency check on the calculation of the quality index. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Lightning accompanied by inconsequential rainfall (i.e., 'dry' lightning) is the primary natural ignition source for wildfires globally. This paper presents a machine-learning and statistical-classification analysis of dry and 'wet' thunderstorm days in relation to associated atmospheric conditions. The study is based on daily data for lightning-flash count and precipitation from ground-based sensors and gauges and a comprehensive set of atmospheric variables that are based on ERA-Interim for the period from 2004 to 2013 at six locations in Australia. These locations represent a wide range of climatic zones (temperate, subtropical, and tropical). Quadratic surface representations and low-dimensional summary statistics were used to characterize the main features of the atmospheric fields. Four prediction skill scores were considered, and 10-fold cross validation was used to evaluate the performance of each classifier. The results were compared with those obtained by adopting the approach used in an earlier study for the U.S. Pacific Northwest. It was found that both approaches have prediction skill when tested against independent data, that mean atmospheric field quantities proved to be the most influential variables in determining dry-lightning activity, and that no single classifier or set of atmospheric variables proved to be consistently superior to its counterpart for the six sites examined here. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global climate model simulations project that the tropical Andes Mountains of South America, which are particularly vulnerable to climate change because of a reliance on snow and glacial melt for freshwater resources, will experience enhanced warming in the near future, with both higher rates of warming at higher elevations within the mountain range itself and localized enhancement of warming exceeding surrounding areas of the globe. Yet recent surface temperature changes in the tropical Andes do not show evidence for either elevation-dependent warming or regional enhancement of warming on average. However, it remains a possibility that the expected warming trends in this region have begun to manifest in other ways (e.g., in the free atmosphere or at intermediate mountain elevations). This paper proposes evidence from several reanalysis products that there has indeed been a regional enhancement of midtropospheric warming around the central Andes over the past few decades that makes this region stand out as a hot spot within the broader pantropics. This trend is generally not reproduced by historical AMIP climate model simulations, which suggests that the mechanisms through which the atmosphere is warming over the central Andes are not adequately captured by climate models. Possible explanations for localized enhancement of warming in this region are considered. On the other hand, reanalysis products do not consistently exhibit enhanced warming at intermediate mountain elevations in the central Andes as evidenced by the generally moderate rates of change in the freezing-level height, except perhaps in the highest-resolution reanalysis product. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Improving seasonal forecasts in East Africa has great implications for food security and water resources planning in the region. Dynamically based seasonal forecast systems have much to contribute to this effort, as they have demonstrated ability to represent and, to some extent, predict large-scale atmospheric dynamics that drive interannual rainfall variability in East Africa. However, these global models often exhibit spatial biases in their placement of rainfall and rainfall anomalies within the region, which limits their direct applicability to forecast-based decision-making. This paper introduces a method that uses objective climate regionalization to improve the utility of dynamically based forecast-system predictions for East Africa. By breaking up the study area into regions that are homogenous in interannual precipitation variability, it is shown that models sometimes capture drivers of variability but misplace precipitation anomalies. These errors are evident in the pattern of homogenous regions in forecast systems relative to observation, indicating that forecasts can more meaningfully be applied at the scale of the analogous homogeneous climate region than as a direct forecast of the local grid cell. This regionalization approach was tested during the July-September (JAS) rain months, and results show an improvement in the predictions from version 4.5 of the Max Plank Institute for Meteorology's atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (ECHAM4.5) for applicable areas of East Africa for the two test cases presented. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The relationship between Tibetan Plateau (TP) snow cover and the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) has long been discussed, but the underlying mechanism remains controversial. In this paper, the snow-albedo and snow-hydrology feedbacks over the TP are investigated based on multiple sources of snow data for the period 1979-2011. The results indicate that winter snow cover plays an important role in cooling local air temperature through the snow-albedo effect; the TP surface net solar radiation in years with above-normal snow cover is approximately 18 W m−2 less than that in below-normal snow cover years. However, data analysis demonstrates that persistent effects of winter snow cover are limited to the period from winter to spring over most parts of the central and eastern TP. Therefore, the preceding snow cover over the central and eastern TP exerts little influence over either the in situ summer atmospheric heat source or the EASM, because of its limited persistence. In contrast, the effects of winter or spring snow cover anomalies over the western TP and the Himalayas can last until summer, and these anomalies further influence the EASM by modulating moisture transport to eastern China and favoring eastward-propagating synoptic disturbances that are generated over the TP. Generally, above-normal snow cover over the western TP and the Himalayas facilitates abundant summer precipitation between the Yangtze and Yellow River basins, which is confirmed by results from a regional Weather Research and Forecasting model simulation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The ITCZ lies at the ascending branch of the tropical meridional overturning circulation, where near-surface meridional mass fluxes vanish. Near the ITCZ, column-integrated energy fluxes vanish, forming an atmospheric energy flux equator (EFE). This paper extends existing approximations relating the ITCZ position and EFE to the atmospheric energy budget by allowing for zonal variations. The resulting relations are tested using reanalysis data for 1979-2014. The zonally varying EFE is found as the latitude where the meridional component of the divergent atmospheric energy transport (AET) vanishes. A Taylor expansion of the AET around the equator relates the ITCZ position to derivatives of the AET. To a first order, the ITCZ position is proportional to the divergent AET across the equator; it is inversely proportional to the local atmospheric net energy input (NEI) that consists of the net energy fluxes at the surface, at the top of the atmosphere, and zonally across longitudes. The first-order approximation captures the seasonal migrations of the ITCZ in the African, Asian, and Atlantic sectors. In the eastern Pacific, a third-order approximation captures the bifurcation from single- to double-ITCZ states that occurs during boreal spring. In contrast to linear EFE theory, during boreal winter in the eastern Pacific, northward cross-equatorial AET goes along with an ITCZ north of the equator. EFE and ITCZ variations driven by ENSO are characterized by an equatorward (poleward) shift in the Pacific during El Niño (La Niña) episodes, which are associated with variations in equatorial ocean energy uptake. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Urban heat island circulation establishes an urban dome under stable stratification and no background wind conditions. Small-scale water models have been a very useful tool in the exploration of the mechanisms by which urban domes and their associated wind flows are formed. Data are available from a number of water-tank heat island models. Data from field measurements, computational fluid dynamics, and small-scale water-tank experiments are compared in this paper. The small-scale water-tank experiments were found to produce relatively low radial velocities, such as the radial horizontal velocity. Different relevant velocity scales developed in the literature were reviewed. The influence of the Prandtl number on convective flows was analyzed. The analysis resulted in a new convective velocity scale that is a function of the Prandtl number, and the new scale was found to work well. This new development is expected to render small-scale models more useful in urban wind studies. The new convective velocity scale may be extended to water-modeling studies of other buoyancy-driven airflows. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper demonstrates that sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) can be simulated in an ensemble of dry dynamical cores that miss the typical SSW forcing mechanisms like moist processes, land-sea contrasts, or topography. These idealized general circulation model (GCM) simulations are driven by a simple Held-Suarez-Williamson (HSW) temperature relaxation and low-level Rayleigh friction. In particular, the four dynamical cores of NCAR's Community Atmosphere Model, version 5 (CAM5), are used, which are the semi-Lagrangian (SLD) and Eulerian (EUL) spectral-transform models and the finite-volume (FV) and the spectral element (SE) models. Three research themes are discussed. First, it is shown that SSW events in such idealized simulations have very realistic flow characteristics that are analyzed via the SLD model. A single vortex-split event is highlighted that is driven by wavenumber-1 and -2 wave-mean flow interactions. Second, the SLD simulations are compared to the EUL, FV, and SE dynamical cores, which sheds light on the impact of the numerical schemes on the circulation. Only SLD produces major SSWs, while others only exhibit minor stratospheric warmings. These differences are caused by SLD's more vigorous wave-mean flow interactions in addition to a warm pole bias, which leads to relatively weak polar jets in SLD. Third, it is shown that tropical quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO)-like oscillations and SSWs can coexist in such idealized HSW simulations. They are present in the SLD dynamical core that is used to analyze the QBO-SSW interactions via a transformed Eulerian-mean (TEM) analysis. The TEM results provide support for the Holton-Tan effect. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A linear response function (LRF) relates the mean response of a nonlinear system to weak external forcings and vice versa. Even for simple models of the general circulation, such as the dry dynamical core, the LRF cannot be calculated from first principles owing to the lack of a complete theory for eddy-mean flow feedbacks. According to the fluctuation-dissipation theorem (FDT), the LRF can be calculated using only the covariance and lag-covariance matrices of the unforced system. However, efforts in calculating the LRFs for GCMs using FDT have produced mixed results, and the reason(s) behind the poor performance of the FDT remain(s) unclear. In Part I of this study, the LRF of an idealized GCM, the dry dynamical core with Held-Suarez physics, is accurately calculated using Green's functions. In this paper (Part II), the LRF of the same model is computed using FDT, which is found to perform poorly for some of the test cases. The accurate LRF of Part I is used with a linear stochastic equation to show that dimension reduction by projecting the data onto the leading EOFs, which is commonly used for FDT, can alone be a significant source of error. Simplified equations and examples of 2 × 2 matrices are then used to demonstrate that this error arises because of the nonnormality of the operator. These results suggest that errors caused by dimension reduction are a major, if not the main, contributor to the poor performance of the LRF calculated using FDT and that further investigations of dimension-reduction strategies with a focus on nonnormality are needed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The extraction of atmospheric motion vectors (AMVs) from cloud and moisture features from successive geostationary satellite images is an established and important data source for numerical weather prediction (NWP). So far the extraction of AMVs has been confined to the main synoptic times only, which grossly underutilizes the potential of these satellite-derived data. The advent of four-dimensional variational assimilation techniques provides the opportunity to utilize data derived at asynoptic times. This will enhance the capabilities of geostationary satellite systems that can provide continuous and near-real time observations. The new assimilation schemes are able to digest data representing various scales and with variable quality, which further enhances the usefulness of the satellite data. In order to fully exploit the AMVs derived with satellite data, it is imperative to accurately assess the quality and representativeness of individual wind vectors and to provide this information to the NWP centers as an integral part of the observations in near real time. The required high production and dissemination frequency cannot be met if manual intervention is required; hence, the emphasis has to be on fully automated schemes. This paper will describe the automatic quality control scheme implemented at EUMETSAT. It is based on the statistical properties of the derived AMVs and it provides a quality indicator (QI), describing the expected quality of every individual vector. The derived QIs are currently disseminated together with the derived vectors. The paper will also provide validation results based on collocated radiosonde statistics and report on first experiences by ECMWF in utilizing the QIs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In a recently published paper, spherical nonparametric estimators were applied to feature-track ensembles to determine a range of statistics for the atmospheric features considered. This approach obviates the types of bias normally introduced with traditional estimators. New spherical isotropic kernels with local support were introduced. In this paper the extension to spherical nonisotropic kernels with local support is introduced, together with a means of obtaining the shape and smoothing parameters in an objective way. The usefulness of spherical nonparametric estimators based on nonisotropic kernels is demonstrated with an application to an oceanographic feature-track ensemble. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper demonstrates an objective method of computing monthly mean 700-mb height anomalies (H)at 108 grid points in the Western Hemisphere for a 40-yr period as a function of concurrent anomalies of monthly mean sea level pressure (P), at the same 108 points used for H, and monthly mean surface air temperature (T) averaged over 112 areas in North America. The authors applied a forward stepwise program to derive linear multiple regression equations that explained 81% of the variance of H by means of only 3.5 variables, averaged over all months and grid points. The stability of these equations held up well on 6 yr of independent data in terms of explained variance, root-mean-square error, and the spatial anomaly correlation coefficient. Therefore, it seems feasible to reconstruct maps of H for the first half of the twentieth century as a function of data on P and T only. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ten of the most common radiosondes used throughout the world since 1960 have been evaluated concerning potential use of their temperature data for climate studies. The VIZ; Space Data Corp.; Chinese GZZ; Japanese RS2-80; Russian RKZ, MARS, and A-22; and Vaisala RS80, RS 12/15, and RS18/21 radiosondes were evaluated by modeling the temperature of the sensing element relative to the temperature of the air in which it is immersed. The difference, designated as the temperature error, was calculated under various environmental conditions. Validation and sensitivity analysis studies were performed on each radiosonde model as a means of estimating the environmental parameters that influence the temperature error and the resulting accuracy of the day and nighttime temperature profiles. Environmental parameters to which some sondes were sensitive include cloud cover, surface temperature, solar angle, ambient temperature profile, blackbody temperature, and the ventilation velocity. The ventilation velocity was found to depend strongly on the position of the sensor in the balloon wake. It is believed that the results of these analyses provide the best guidelines available to anyone wishing to perform climate studies using radiosonde data. The research work presented in this paper indicates that climate trends can currently be estimated with a subset of the worldwide upper-air data. Trends can be calculated for monthly averaged, nighttime soundings with some confidence for the Vaisala RS80 (models not using the RSN80 and RSN86 corrections), Vaisala RS 12/15, Vaisala RS 18/21, Chinese GZZ (below 25 km), Russian RKZ, Russian MARS, and Russian A-22 (below 20 km) radiosonde models. The analysis presented in this paper shows that all of the above radiosondes have small errors in individual radiosonde soundings at night (< ±1°C) and the errors of the monthly averaged data are estimated to be less than ±0.5°C, except for the A-22 (±0.8 [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

On 16 May 1995, a supercell storm produced an F1 tornado near Garden City, Kansas, during VORTEX (Verification of the Origins of Rotation in Tornadoes Experiment). This event provided the first opportunity to synthesize data collected by a new airborne radar platform called ELDORA (Electra Doppler radar) developed by the National Center for Atmospheric Research. The evolution of the low- and midlevel mesocyclone was presented in a companion paper. In this paper, the sequence of events that triggered tornadogenesis within the mesocyclone circulation is shown. The occlusion downdraft, documented in Part I, appears to promote "vortex breakdown" resulting in the generation of multiple vorticity centers. It is one of these centers that intensifies into the Garden City tornado. The structural relationship between the observed wall cloud and the radar reflectivity associated with the developing hook echo and the kinematic wind field is also presented. Although the wall cloud appears to be uniform there are pronounced asymmetries in the echo and ground-relative flow fields. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Current coupled climate models contain large biases in simulating tropical cyclogenesis, reducing the confidence in tropical cyclone (TC) projection. In this study, we investigated the influence of sea surface temperature (SST) biases on TC genesis in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 simulations from 1979 to 2014. Positive TC genesis biases were found over the tropical central North Pacific (CNP) in most of climate models, including the high-resolution models. Compared to coupled models, TC genesis density (TCGD) simulations over CNP in uncoupled models forced by observational SST improved obviously. A warm SST bias over the tropical CNP in the coupled models is the main cause of TC genesis biases. The SST bias–induced diabatic heating leads to an anomalous Gill-type atmospheric circulation response, which contributes to a series of favorable environmental conditions for TC formation over the CNP. Numerical experiments were also performed with HiRAM to demonstrate the influence of SST biases on the TCGD simulation, further confirming our conclusion. The current results highlight the importance of improving TC simulation in state-of-the-art climate models by reducing SST simulation bias. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Monsoon systems transport water and energy across the globe, making them a central component of the global circulation system. Changes in different forcing parameters have the potential to fundamentally change the monsoon characteristics as indicated in various paleoclimatic records. Here, we use the Atmosphere Model developed at the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL-AM2) and couple it with a slab ocean in order to analyze the monsoon's sensitivity to changes in different parameters on a planet with idealized topography (varying land position, slab depth, atmospheric CO2 concentration, solar radiation, sulfate aerosol concentration, and surface albedo). This Monsoon Planet concept of an aquaplanet with a broad zonal land stripe allows us to reduce the influence of topography and to access the relevant meridional monsoon dynamics. In simulations with monsoon dynamics, a bimodal rainfall distribution develops during the monsoon months with one maximum over the tropical ocean and the other one over land. The intensity and extent of the monsoon depend on the relative height of a local maximum in the surface pressure field that is acting as a barrier and is determining the coastward moisture transport. Changes in the barrier height occur during the course of one year but can also be induced when varying different parameters in the sensitivity analysis (e.g., the increase of atmospheric CO2 reduces the barrier height, resulting in an increase of rainfall, while aerosols have the opposing effect). This bimodal rainfall structure separated by a pressure barrier is also present in reanalysis data of the West African monsoon. Significance Statement: Monsoon rainfall directly impacts the livelihood of millions of individuals in the tropics. Because monsoons transport energy and water around the globe, their influence reaches far beyond the tropics, and changes in their dynamics affect the climate both locally and globally. The individual monsoon systems are subject to various forcing factors that determine the monsoon characteristics in partly opposing ways. Here, we implement a model setup of the Monsoon Planet to study the monsoon's sensitivity to various forcings in a simplified design, allowing us to gain new insights into monsoon dynamics. We find that a local maximum in the pressure field is acting as a barrier for moisture transport and thus determines the monsoon characteristics over land. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Two global atmospheric circulation datasets (ERA5 and NCEP FNL) with horizontal resolutions of 0.25° × 0.25° are investigated in terms of kinetic energy (KE) spectra at 200 hPa (roughly between 11 and 12 km). The horizontal KE (HKE) in NCEP FNL is larger and flatter than that in ERA5 at subsynoptic scales and mesoscales. Restoring the energy of this wavenumber range to the physical space shows that the HKE in NCEP FNL is larger than that in ERA5 over most areas but smaller mainly in the Indo-Pacific warm pool. The spectral budgets show that at these scales, the positive contribution from net vertical flux in ERA5 is stronger than that in NCEP FNL, while the negative contribution from available potential energy (APE) conversion is smaller; assuming that the atmosphere is in a quasi-stationary state, more dissipation is found in ERA5 than in NCEP FNL, which should be responsible for the HKE spectrum in ERA5 to be steeper and weaker than that in NCEP FNL. Our formulation shows that the APE conversion and net vertical flux are related to the pressure vertical velocity (PVV). The APE conversion and net vertical flux differences between the two datasets, like the PVV difference, are mainly from the tropical region. At large scales, the vertical motion in ERA5 is larger than that in NCEP FNL. The amplitude differences of the PVV spectra between two datasets are consistent with those of the large-scale precipitation spectra associated with microphysics parameterizations. These results support that vertical motion is a key dynamical factor explaining energy discrepancies at mesoscales. Significance Statement: The atmospheric kinetic energy spectrum reflects energy distribution characteristics in atmospheric motion at different scales. According to the Helmholtz decomposition, the horizontal wind field can be decomposed into two parts: rotational wind field and divergent wind field. We explore the dynamical causes of the atmospheric energy spectra differences among different datasets from the perspective of rotational and divergent components of motion. Our results reveal that the differences in energy spectra and their energy budget at scales below a few hundred kilometers are relatively significant in tropical regions and are closely related to vertical motion. A better understanding of the differences in kinetic energy spectra will contribute to the improvement of atmospheric models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It is challenging to accurately characterize the three-dimensional distribution of horizontal wind vectors (known as 3D winds). Feature-matching satellite cloud top or water vapor fields have been used for decades to retrieve atmospheric motion vectors, but this approach is mostly limited to a single and uncertain pressure level at a given time. Satellite wind lidar measurements are expected to provide more accurate data and capture the line-of-sight wind for clear skies, within cirrus clouds, and above thick clouds, but only along a curtain parallel to the satellite track. Here we propose Vientos—a new satellite mission concept that combines two or more passive water vapor sounders with Doppler wind lidar to measure 3D winds. The need for 3D wind observations is highlighted by inconsistencies in reanalysis estimates, particularly under precipitating conditions. Recent studies have shown that 3D winds can be retrieved using water vapor observations from two polar-orbiting satellites separated by 50 min, with the help of advanced optical flow algorithms. These winds can be improved through the incorporation of a small number of collocated higher-accuracy measurements via machine learning. The Vientos concept would enable simultaneous measurements of 3D winds, temperature, and humidity, and is expected to have a significant impact on scientific research, weather prediction, and other applications. For example, it can help better understand and predict the preconditions for organized convection. This article summarizes recent results, presents the Vientos mission architecture, and discusses implementation scenarios for a 3D wind mission under current budget constraints. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Currently, there is a lack of investigating moisture sources for precipitation over the upstream catchment of the Three Gorges Dam (UCTGD), the world's largest dam. Using the dynamical recycling model (DRM), trajectory frequency method (TFM), and the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR), this study quantifies moisture sources and transport paths for UCTGD summer precipitation from 1980 to 2009 based on two categories of sources: region-specific and source-direction. Overall, the land and oceanic sources contribute roughly 63% and 37%, respectively, of the moisture to UCTGD summer precipitation. UCTGD and the Indian Ocean are the most important land and oceanic sources, respectively, in which the southern Indian Ocean with over 10% of moisture contribution was overlooked previously. Under the influence of the Asian monsoon and prevailing westerlies, the land contribution decreases to 57.3% in June, then gradually increases to 68.8%. It is found that for drought years with enhanced southwest monsoon, there is a weakening of the moisture contribution from the C-shaped belt along the Arabian Sea, South Asia, and UCTGD, and vice versa. TFM results show three main moisture transport paths and highlight the importance of moisture from the southwest. Comparison analysis indicates that, generally, sink regions are more affected by land evaporation with their locations more interior to the center of the mainland. Furthermore, correlations between moisture contributions and indices of general circulation and sea surface temperature are investigated, suggesting that these indices affect precipitation by influencing moisture contributions of the subregions. All of these are useful for comprehending the causes of summer UCTGD precipitation. Significance Statement: Quantitative research on the moisture sources of summer precipitation has been implemented for the upstream catchment of the Three Gorges Dam (UCTGD), which is of particular hydrological significance but has not been investigated previously. The dynamical recycling model (DRM)–trajectory frequency method (TFM) approach is used to quantify and interpret the results of the moisture sources both in different specific subregions and directions, which produce more meaningful results than a single method for the areal division of moisture sources. Furthermore, antecedent indices that significantly influence the following moisture contributions of the subregions and then summer UCTGD precipitation are studied in terms of large-scale general circulation indices, which would help our understanding of precipitation forecast for UCTGD. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Future Arctic sea ice loss has a known impact on Arctic amplification (AA) and mean atmospheric circulation. Furthermore, several studies have shown it leads to a decreased variance in temperature over North America. In this study, we analyze results from two fully coupled Community Earth System Model (CESM) Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM4) simulations with sea ice nudged to either the ensemble mean of WACCM historical runs averaged over the 1980–99 period for the control (CTL) or projected RCP8.5 values over the 2080–99 period for the experiment (EXP). Dominant large-scale meteorological patterns (LSMPs) are then identified using self-organizing maps applied to winter daily 500-hPa geopotential height anomalies ( Z 500 ′ ) over North America. We investigate how sea ice loss (EXP − CTL) impacts the frequency of these LSMPs and, through composite analysis, the sensible weather associated with them. We find differences in LSMP frequency but no change in residency time, indicating there is no stagnation of the flow with sea ice loss. Sea ice loss also acts to de-amplify and/or shift the Z 500 ′ that characterize these LSMPs and their associated anomalies in potential temperature at 850 hPa. Impacts on precipitation anomalies are more localized and consistent with changes in anomalous sea level pressure. With this LSMP framework we provide new mechanistic insights, demonstrating a role for thermodynamic, dynamic, and diabatic processes in sea ice impacts on atmospheric variability. Understanding these processes from a synoptic perspective is critical as some LSMPs play an outsized role in producing the mean response to Arctic sea ice loss. Significance Statement: The goal of this study is to understand how future Arctic sea ice loss might impact daily weather patterns over North America. We use a global climate model to produce one set of simulations where sea ice is similar to present conditions and another that represents conditions at the end of the twenty-first century. Daily patterns in large-scale circulation at roughly 5.5 km in altitude are then identified using a machine learning method. We find that sea ice loss tends to de-amplify these patterns and their associated impacts on temperature nearer the surface. Our methodology allows us to probe more deeply into the mechanisms responsible for these changes, which provides a new way to understand how sea ice loss can impact the daily weather we experience. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ), with its twice-annual passage over central Africa, is considered as the main driver of the rainfall seasonality. In this ITCZ paradigm, high rainfall occurs over regions of large low-level convergence. But recently, this paradigm was challenged over central Africa. Here, we show that a shallow meridional overturning circulation—driven by surface conditions—plays a thermodynamical control on the rainfall seasonality over central Africa. Indeed, due to the local evaporative cooling effect, the foot of the ascending branch of Hadley cells occurs where the temperature is the warmest, indicating a thermal low. This distorts the southern Hadley cell by developing its bottom-heavy structure. As result, both shallow and deep Hadley cells coexist over central Africa year-round. The deep mode is associated with the poleward transport of atmospheric energy at upper levels. The shallow mode is characterized by a shallow meridional circulation, with its moisture transport vanishing and converging in the midtroposphere rather than at lower troposphere. This midtropospheric moisture convergence is also the dominant component that shapes the vertically integrated moisture flux convergence, with little contribution of African easterly jets. This convergence zone thus controls the precipitating convection. Its meridional migration highlights the interhemispheric rainfall contrast over central Africa and outlines the unimodal seasonality. On the other hand, forced by the Congo basin cell, the precipitable water regulates the deep convection from the vegetated surface of Congo basin, acting as a continental sea. This nonlinear mechanism separates the rainfall into three distinct regimes: the moisture-convergence-controlled regime, with convective rainfall exclusively occurring in the rainy season; the local evaporation-controlled regime with drizzle in the dry season; and the precipitable-water-controlled regime, with exponential rainfall increase in the dry season. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The dynamic and thermodynamic mechanisms that link retreating sea ice to increased Arctic cloud amount and cloud water content are unclear. Using the fifth generation of the ECMWF Reanalysis (ERA5), the long-term changes between years 1950-79 and 1990-2019 in Arctic clouds are estimated along with their relationship to sea ice loss. A comparison of ERA5 to CERES satellite cloud fractions reveals that ERA5 simulates the seasonal cycle, variations, and changes of cloud fraction well over water surfaces during 2001-20. This suggests that ERA5 may reliably represent the cloud response to sea ice loss because melting sea ice exposes more water surfaces in the Arctic. Increases in ERA5 Arctic cloud fraction and water content are largest during October-March from ~950 to 700 hPa over areas with significant (>15%) sea ice loss. Further, regions with significant sea ice loss experience higher convective available potential energy (~2-2.75 J kg-1), planetary boundary layer height (~120-200 m), and near-surface specific humidity (~0.25-0.40 g kg-1) and a greater reduction of the lower-tropospheric temperature inversion (~3°-4℃) than regions with small (<15%) sea ice loss in autumn and winter. Areas with significant sea ice loss also show strengthened upward motion between 1000 and 700 hPa, enhanced horizontal convergence (divergence) of air, and decreased (increased) relative humidity from 1000 to 950 hPa (950-700 hPa) during the cold season. Analyses of moisture divergence, evaporation minus precipitation, and meridional moisture flux fields suggest that increased local surface water fluxes, rather than atmospheric motions, provide a key source of moisture for increased Arctic clouds over newly exposed water surfaces during October-March. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

El Niño can be categorized into long and short decaying cases in terms of the lengths of decaying phases. We find that the difference between long and short decaying El Niño emerges as early as the decaying spring, rather than the decaying summer mentioned in previous studies. Observational evidence suggests that this difference corresponds to the different positions of the spring Aleutian low (AL). Further analysis using 15 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) model simulations suggests that the AL that extends southeastward into the northeastern subtropical Pacific contributes to the long decaying El Niño. The northeastern subtropical Pacific AL, with an anomalous southwesterly on the southeast edge, is associated with warming in situ, which further induces cyclonic circulation anomalies over the eastern tropical Pacific as Gill's response. The anomalous westerly at the equator along the southern side of the cyclonic circulation anomalies is related to positive SST anomalies over the central and eastern tropical Pacific and therefore the persistence of El Niño in the decaying spring. On the other hand, the AL restricted to the North Pacific contributes to anticyclonic circulation anomalies over the central Pacific and favors the decline of El Niño through the seasonal footprint mechanism. Moreover, the models that reproduce many more long (short) decaying El Niño cases tend to simulate the AL southeastward extension (restriction over the North Pacific) during the El Niño decaying spring. The results imply that the AL position in the El Niño decaying spring could be a precursor to the length of El Niño decaying phase. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With a particular focus on the Siberian storm track, this study provides new insights into variations in the warm Arctic-cold Eurasia (WACE) temperature anomaly pattern by using reanalysis data. The results show that the Siberian storm track has a significant out-of-phase relationship with both the WACE pattern and Ural blocking on the interannual time scale. The strengthened WACE pattern can weaken the Siberian storm track through a suppression of the low-level atmospheric baroclinicity over midlatitude Eurasia. The weakened Siberian storm track can contribute to the WACE pattern through feedback forcing from synoptic-scale eddies, which can also create favorable conditions for the development of Ural blocking. Composite temporal evolution reveals that the strongest cold Arctic-warm Eurasia pattern is preceded by the peak of the Siberian storm track. The Ural cyclonic circulation reaches its maximum amplitude on the peak day of the Siberian storm track strength and continues to persist for one day with the maximum amplitude due to the feedback forcing resulting from the Siberian storm track. On the intraseasonal time scale, the occurrence of the Siberian storm track activity can serve as an early indication of the diminished Ural blocking andWACE pattern. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The East Siberia-Beaufort Sea (EsCB) sea ice during boreal autumn has recently been reported to play important roles in the climate over Eurasia and North America. The EsCB sea ice exhibits remarkable year-to-year fluctuations in autumn (August-October), the season in which its minimum extent usually occurs. However, the physical driver of the autumn EsCB sea ice interannual variability remains unclear, impeding the seasonal prediction of local sea ice. Here we find that the autumn EsCB sea ice variability is largely driven by the preceding summer (May-July) dipolar atmospheric anomalies over the North Atlantic, resembling the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) pattern. During the negative NAO-like phase, the circumpolar anticyclonic anomalies tend to transport the warm air from Greenland toward the EsCB region, which triggers rapid sea ice melt there. The associated EsCB sea ice anomalies can be maintained or even intensified by the local sea ice-albedo positive feedback until autumn. Therefore, the abnormal signals of Arctic sea ice tend to show significant persistence in summer and autumn. The influence of the summer NAO-like atmospheric circulation on the ensuing autumn EsCB sea ice can be realistically reproduced in the historical simulation of the E3SM-1-0 model, supporting our findings based on the observation. This lagged relationship provides a promising pathway for skillful seasonal prediction of the EsCB sea ice and its related climatic impacts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study examined the dominant structure and characteristics of synoptic-scale (2–8-day periods) waves over northern Eurasia during 40 summer seasons (June–August, 1979–2018). The synoptic-scale wave patterns are isolated using an extended empirical orthogonal function (EEOF) analysis on the 300-hPa geopotential height anomalies, and a composite based on atmospheric circulation fields and gridded precipitation product. The wave patterns are classified into two types from two pairs of EEOF modes. These two different wave types are defined as the polar frontal (PF) mode and Arctic frontal (AF) mode, respectively. The PF-mode waves are initiated in the North Atlantic sector to the west of the British Isles. They propagate eastward across Siberia into the North Pacific, and produce precipitation mainly over the Eurasian polar frontal zone. The AF-mode wave train arcs along the climatological Arctic frontal zone (AFZ). The AF-mode waves originate near the Scandinavian Peninsula. Their eastward passage brings precipitation along the AFZ. The development of the synoptic-scale waves is reflected by unique background conditions over northern Eurasia. The lower-tropospheric baroclinicity in southern Siberia and central Asia favored the baroclinic growth of the PF-mode waves. The AF-mode waves are trapped in the well-organized baroclinic zone along the north coast of the Eurasian continent. The baroclinic zone is coupled with a band of large meridional gradient of potential vorticity in the upper troposphere, suggesting that this band acts as a waveguide for the AF-mode waves. Significance Statement: This study examines the synoptic-scale waves in the 2–8-day range of time scales over northern Eurasia during summer. The synoptic-scale waves are categorized into two distinct types at different latitude bands by the EEOF analysis on the 300-hPa z anomalies. They are defined as polar frontal (PF) mode and Arctic frontal (AF) mode. Then the EEOF-based composite analysis is conducted to detect the large-scale circulation anomalies associated with the propagation of different types of synoptic-scale waves. The structure and characteristics are examined. The roles of the mean background conditions in the development and propagation of the respective types are discussed. The behavior of these wave disturbances as rain-producing weather systems is also examined. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Elevated spring and summer rainfall in the U.S. Midwest is often associated with a strong Great Plains low-level jet (GPLLJ), which transports moist air northward to the region from the Gulf of Mexico. While the intensity of hourly precipitation extremes depends on local moisture availability and vertical velocity, sustained moisture convergence on longer time scales depends on horizontal moisture advection from remote sources. Therefore, the magnitude of moisture convergence in the Midwest depends in part on the humidity in these moisture source regions. Past work has identified the time-mean spatial distribution of moisture sources for the Midwest and studied how this pattern changes in years with anomalous rainfall. Here, using reanalysis products and an Eulerian moisture tracking model, we seek to increase physical understanding of this moisture source variability by linking it to the GPLLJ, which has been studied extensively. We find that on interannual time scales, an anomalously strong GPLLJ is associated with a shift in the distribution of moisture sources from land to ocean, with most of the anomalous moisture transported to—and converged in—the Midwest originating from the Atlantic Ocean. This effect is more pronounced on synoptic time scales, when almost all anomalous moisture transported to the region originates over the ocean. We also show that the observed positive trend in oceanic moisture contribution to the Midwest from 1979 to 2020 is consistent with a strengthening of the GPLLJ over the same period. We conclude by outlining how projected changes in a region's upstream moisture sources may be useful for understanding changes in local precipitation variability. Significance Statement: In this work, we study how the origin of moisture that forms precipitation in the U.S. Midwest covaries with large-scale atmospheric circulation. Our results show that an intensification of the mean winds tends to increase the proportion of total rainfall that originates from the ocean. This analysis may help to constrain future projections of rainfall extremes in the central United States, as projected changes in humidity over the ocean are typically more robust and better understood than those over land. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recently, the occurrence of Arctic winter daily warming events has attracted substantial attention from the media and scholars alike. Herein, these events are investigated further, particularly in respect of their relation with the Arctic Oscillation (AO). We define a Pacific pattern–Arctic rapid tropospheric daily warming (Pacific-RTDW) event, when the Arctic winter daily warming is triggered by a warm humid air mass that is transported by storms from the North Pacific into the Arctic. An anomalous northwest–southeast dipole pattern at 500-hPa geopotential is identified spanning from the Arctic to the North Pacific and associated with AO. The dipole pattern could favor the occurrence of Pacific-RTDW events because it induces a strong southerly in the middle troposphere, which mid-high-latitude storms may follow into the Arctic. In particular, the correlation between AO and the occurrence frequency of Pacific-RTDW events has strengthened since the early 1980s. This shift is attributed to the intensified Pacific storm-track (PST) activity intensity, which is possibly related to the phase transition of the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) and has induced stronger synoptic-scale eddy feedbacks to low-frequency flows since this period. Accordingly, stronger feedbacks of the synoptic-scale eddies could provide a favorable condition for the formation of such a dipole pattern associated with the AO, bolstering the connection between AO and Pacific-RTDW events. In contrast, the eddy feedback to the flow is not strong enough and is, therefore, unable to provide favorable conditions before this period due to the comparatively weak PST intensity. Significance Statement: The Arctic winter daily warming event may lead to more severe cold air outbreaks invading the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes. We explored the climatic conditions favorable for the occurrence of Arctic winter daily warming events, thereby revealing that the correlated atmospheric circulation features a northwest–southeast dipole pattern. Additionally, since the early 1980s, the intensified Pacific storm-track activity is believed to have contributed to strengthening of the correlation between the Arctic Oscillation and the occurrence frequency of Arctic winter daily warming events. The findings here are expected to assist in prediction of future Arctic winter daily warming events. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Indian Ocean basin (IOB) mode is the dominant mode of the interannual sea surface temperature (SST) variability in the Indian Ocean, with the Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) as the second mode. An IOB event normally occurs after an El Niño or a concurrent IOD–El Niño event, the dynamics of which are traditionally believed as forced by ENSO through the Walker circulation anomalies over the tropical Indian Ocean. A strong IOB in 2020 took place after the strongest 2019 IOD on record but independent of El Niño, which challenges the traditional atmospheric bridge dynamics of the IOB event. In this study, the dynamics of the 2020 IOB event are investigated using the numerical seasonal climate prediction system of the National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center of China. It is found that the initialization of the Indian Ocean subsurface temperature during the 2019 IOD event has led to the outburst of the 2020 IOB event successfully, the dynamics of which are the propagation and the western boundary reflection of the equatorial and off-equatorial Rossby waves, inducing heat content recharge over the tropical Indian Ocean upper thermocline. In comparison, experiments of SST initialization over the tropical Indian Ocean, with the subsurface temperature in a climatological state, were unable to reproduce the onset of the 2020 IOB event, suggesting that the local air–sea interaction within the Indian Ocean basin is of secondary importance. The numerical experiments suggest that the thermocline ocean wave dynamics play an important role in forcing the IOB event. The revealed thermocline dynamics are potentially useful in climate prediction associated with IOB events. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

El Niño is known to affect Arctic temperature. However, the robustness of the observed relationship between El Niño and Arctic temperature remains debated. Here we reexamine the impacts of El Niño on the Arctic temperature in boreal winter [December–February (DJF)] using reanalysis datasets and atmospheric model experiments. This study shows that extreme El Niño events are accompanied by significant boreal winter cooling over northeastern Canada and Greenland (NECG), while moderate eastern Pacific (MEP) El Niño events are accompanied by significant boreal winter warming in this region. For central Pacific (CP) El Niño events, a cold signal appears in NECG, but with no statistical significance. During extreme El Niño winters, a positive Pacific–North America (PNA)-like pattern is seen in the Pacific, and anomalously negative 200-hPa geopotential height (Z200) strengthening occurs over NECG, which is a response to anomalous strong wave activity originating in the tropical Pacific. El Niño–induced circulation anomalies can further induce NECG cooling via cold temperature advection and decreased downward longwave radiation. In contrast, for the MEP El Niño, the subtropical jet extends zonally from the North Pacific to the North Atlantic, which is accompanied by increased baroclinicity anomalies and favors the propagation of synoptic eddies into the Atlantic, leading to a negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)-like pattern. This in turn could further enhance the positive Z200 anomalies over NECG, resulting in anomalous warming in NECG through warm temperature advection and enhanced downward longwave radiation. A series of atmospheric model experiments simulates the observed circulation changes and associated warming over NECG. Significance Statement: This work investigates the different impacts of the three El Niño types on regional Arctic wintertime temperature anomalies based on observations and model experiments. The impacts of El Niño events on northeastern Canada and Greenland temperatures during boreal winter show distinct differences between extreme El Niño and moderate EP El Niño events. These distinct differences can be attributed to the different atmospheric circulation patterns induced by different SST patterns, which can lead to warm (cold) temperature advection and enhanced (decreased) downward longwave radiation. These results highlight the different impacts of extreme and moderate EP El Niños on Arctic temperatures and provide an improved understanding of the impact of El Niños on the Arctic climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

North Atlantic atmosphere–ocean variability is assessed in climate model simulations from HighResMIP that have low resolution (LR) or high resolution (HR) in their atmosphere and ocean model components. It is found that some of the LR simulations overestimate the low-frequency variability of subpolar sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies and underestimate its correlation with the NAO compared to ERA5. These deficiencies are significantly reduced in the HR simulations, and it is shown that the improvements are related to a reduction of intrinsic (non-NAO-driven) variability of the subpolar ocean circulation. To understand the cause of the overestimated intrinsic subpolar ocean variability in the LR simulations, a link is demonstrated between the amplitude of the subpolar ocean variability and the mean state of the Labrador–Irminger Seas. Supporting previous studies, the Labrador–Irminger Seas tend to be colder and fresher in the LR simulations compared to the HR simulations and oceanic observations from EN4. This promotes upper-ocean density anomalies in this region to be more salinity-controlled in the LR simulations versus more temperature-controlled in the HR simulations and EN4 observations. It is argued that this causes the excessive subpolar ocean variability in the LR simulations by favoring a positive feedback between subpolar upper-ocean salinity and Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) anomalies, rather than a negative feedback between subpolar SST and AMOC anomalies as in the HR simulations. The findings overall suggest that the subpolar ocean mean state impacts the variability of the ocean circulation and SSTs, including their relationship with the atmospheric circulation, in the extratropical North Atlantic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The distinction between eddy-driven and subtropical jets is conceptually important and well-founded based on different driving mechanisms and dominant types of variability. This climatological perspective may be augmented by considering instantaneous maxima in the wind field and linking these to the time-mean jets. Inspired by EOF and cluster analyses to explore the variability in jet occurrences, we propose a straightforward framework that naturally distinguishes subtropical from eddy-driven jets in instantaneous data. We document that for most ocean basins, there is a clear bimodality in instantaneous jet occurrences in potential temperature–wind speed space. The two types of jets in this phase space align well with the conceptual expectations for subtropical and eddy-driven jets regarding their vertical structure as well as their regional occurrence. Interestingly, the bimodality in phase space is most pronounced in the western North Pacific during winter. The climatological jet in this region is typically regarded as "merged," resulting from a mixture of thermal driving and eddy driving. Our results clarify that the strongest instantaneous jets in this region are classified as subtropical, with eddy-driven jets occurring in close proximity to the climatological mean jet, though weaker and slightly more poleward. We also show that the regions of climatological transition from predominantly subtropical to predominantly eddy-driven jets are just downstream of the strongest climatological jets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Cold winters over Eurasia often coincide with warm winters in the Arctic, which has become known as the "warm Arctic–cold Eurasia" pattern. The extent to which this observed correlation is indicative of a causal response to sea ice loss is debated. Here, using large multimodel ensembles of coordinated experiments, we find that the Eurasian temperature response to Arctic sea ice loss is weak compared to internal variability and is not robust across climate models. We show that Eurasian cooling is driven by tropospheric and stratospheric circulation changes in response to sea ice loss but is counteracted by tropospheric thermodynamical warming, as the local warming induced by sea ice loss spreads into the midlatitudes by eddy advection. Although opposing effects of thermodynamical warming and dynamical cooling are found robustly across different models or different sea ice perturbations, their net effect varies in sign and magnitude across the models, resulting in diverse model temperature responses over Eurasia. The contributions from both tropospheric dynamics and thermodynamics show substantial intermodel spread. Although some of this spread in the Eurasian winter temperature response to sea ice loss may stem from model uncertainty, even with several hundred ensemble members, it is challenging to isolate model differences in the forced response from internal variability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The standard approach when studying atmospheric circulation regimes and their dynamics is to use a hard regime assignment, where each atmospheric state is assigned to the regime it is closest to in distance. However, this may not always be the most appropriate approach as the regime assignment may be affected by small deviations in the distance to the regimes due to noise. To mitigate this we develop a sequential probabilistic regime assignment using Bayes's theorem, which can be applied to previously defined regimes and implemented in real time as new data become available. Bayes's theorem tells us that the probability of being in a regime given the data can be determined by combining climatological likelihood with prior information. The regime probabilities at time t can be used to inform the prior probabilities at time t + 1, which are then used to sequentially update the regime probabilities. We apply this approach to both reanalysis data and a seasonal hindcast ensemble incorporating knowledge of the transition probabilities between regimes. Furthermore, making use of the signal present within the ensemble to better inform the prior probabilities allows for identifying more pronounced interannual variability. The signal within the interannual variability of wintertime North Atlantic circulation regimes is assessed using both a categorical and regression approach, with the strongest signals found during very strong El Niño years. Significance Statement: Atmospheric circulation regimes are recurrent and persistent patterns that characterize the atmospheric circulation on time scales of 1–3 weeks. They are relevant for predictability on these time scales as mediators of weather. In this study we propose a novel approach to assigning atmospheric states to six predefined wintertime circulation regimes over the North Atlantic and Europe, which can be applied in real time. This approach introduces a probabilistic, instead of deterministic, regime assignment and uses prior knowledge on the regime dynamics. It allows us to better identify the regime persistence and indicates when a state does not clearly belong to one regime. Making use of an ensemble of model simulations, we can identify more pronounced interannual variability by using the full ensemble to inform prior knowledge on the regimes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The so-called traditional approximation, wherein the component of the Coriolis force proportional to the cosine of latitude is ignored, is frequently made in order to simplify the equations of atmospheric circulation. For velocity fields whose vertical component is comparable to their horizontal component (such as convective circulations), and in the tropics where the sine of latitude vanishes, the traditional approximation is not justified. We introduce a framework for studying the effect of diabatic heating on circulations in the presence of both traditional and nontraditional terms in the Coriolis force. The framework is intended to describe steady convective circulations on an f plane in the presence of radiation and momentum damping. We derive a single elliptic equation for the horizontal velocity potential, which is a generalization of the weak temperature gradient (WTG) approximation. The elliptic operator depends on latitude, radiative damping, and momentum damping coefficients. We show how all other dynamical fields can be diagnosed from this velocity potential; the horizontal velocity induced by the Coriolis force has a particularly simple expression in terms of the velocity potential. Limiting examples occur at the equator, where only the nontraditional terms are present, at the poles, where only the traditional terms appear, and in the absence of radiative damping where the WTG approximation is recovered. We discuss how the framework will be used to construct dynamical, nonlinear convective models, in order to diagnose their consequent upscale momentum and temperature fluxes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The search for an explanation of correlations of weather and climate with solar activity has uncovered some subtle effects of the varying solar inputs, which include irradiance, energetic particles, electric fields induced by the solar wind, and the modulation of the galactic cosmic ray flux. Relevant phenomena have been identified in stratospheric chemistry and dynamics and in aerosols, atmospheric electricity, and clouds. The effects are small and appear intermittently in statistical analyses of observations. Correlations and theory permit responses to several solar inputs effective on the decadal time scales, making it difficult to distinguish them observationally. No mechanism for tropospheric decadal change can be considered to be definitely established, but for the day-to-day time scale there is clear observational evidence for clouds responding to solar wind-induced current flow (JZ) in the global electric circuit, due to changes in ionospheric potential, and independently from Forbush decreases of the cosmic ray flux. The responses to JZ also correlate separately with ionospheric potential changes due to changes in day-to-day thunderstorm activity. The identified mechanism is for electric charge effects on in-cloud scavenging, and this implies a decadal response, in view of decadal changes in JZ. However, a complete and quantitative model of the inferred electrically induced changes in cloud microphysics is not yet available. The failures, successes, and controversies of the search illustrate the somewhat chaotic process of scientific discovery. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Under the background of global warming, the Arctic region has warmed faster than the Antarctic, which is referred to as asymmetric Arctic and Antarctic warming. The new generation of model simulations from the CMIP6 offers an opportunity to identify the major factors contributing to the asymmetric warming and its intermodel spread. In this study, the preindustrial and abrupt-4 × CO2 experiments from 18 CMIP6 models are examined to extract the asymmetric warming and its intermodel spread. A climate feedback-response analysis method is applied to reveal the contributions of external and internal feedback processes to the asymmetric warming and its intermodel spread, by decomposing total warming into the partial temperature changes caused by individual factors. It is found that a seasonal energy transfer mechanism (SETM) dominates in both polar warmings. The direct consequence of the sea ice declining in response to the anthropogenic forcing is an increase in the effective heat capacity of the ocean surface layer. Such an increase in the effective heat capacity temporally withholds most of the extra solar energy absorbed during summer and then releases it during winter, contributing to stronger warming in winter. However, the background oceanic circulation in the Southern Ocean, namely, the Antarctic Circumpolar Current, continually transports energy equatorward, resulting in a suppressed SETM and surface warming in the Antarctic. The key factor that accounts for intermodel spread in the asymmetric warming is the difference in their strengths of SETM. The poleward atmospheric transport and water vapor feedback also contribute to the intermodel spread. Significance Statement: The asymmetric Arctic and Antarctic warming, as a response to the increase in CO2, can regulate global atmospheric and oceanic circulations via meridional temperature gradient. Previous studies have all ascribed the key role of the ocean in the asymmetric warming over the two poles with a lack of comprehensive understanding of the roles of other feedback processes. This study emphasizes that oceanic circulation is the root of the asymmetric warming via suppressing sea ice retreat and the associated SETM in the Antarctic, instead of increasing ocean heat uptake and equatorward transport only. For the intermodel spread in the asymmetric warming over two poles, the differences in the strength of all processes involving the SETM among models are the prominent issue. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Throughout 2020, a persistent marine heatwave (MHW) event occurred in the northeast (NE) Pacific, which exhibited a record-breaking intensity and long duration. Three peaks of sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly are identified in April, July, and November 2020, respectively, all of which are caused by the surface latent heat flux (LH) term. A Taylor expansion analysis for the LH term reveals that positive LH anomaly (LHA) played the decisive role in increasing the latent heating effect, whereas the mixed layer depth anomaly was not important in the 2020 MHW. The positive LHA was primarily caused by the southerly wind anomalies, which advected more humid air from lower latitudes to the NE Pacific and thus reduced the difference between the saturated specific humidity at sea surface and actual surface specific humidity. This reduced sea–air humidity difference was conducive to less evaporation, leading to positive LHA. Using an atmospheric general circulation model forced by observed SSTs, we find that although the atmospheric circulation anomalies associated with the 2020 MHW can be partly constrained by both tropical Pacific SST and local SST over the North Pacific, the role of internal atmospheric variability in the 2020 MHW's formation cannot be overlooked. The prediction skill for the 2020 MHW in the North American Multimodel Ensemble models is limited to one month, indicating the challenge of accurately predicting MHW in the NE Pacific. The finding about the contribution of sea–air humidity difference to the LHA provides a new insight into the formation mechanism of MHW. Significance Statement: An exceptionally strong and persistent marine heatwave occurred in the northeast Pacific throughout 2020, with three peaks in April, July, and November, causing considerable damage to local fisheries and ecosystems. This study found that the evolution of this marine heatwave was due to the less-than-normal release of latent heat at the ocean surface. This was mainly caused by the reduced sea–air humidity difference, which was attributed to the increased near-surface moisture transported by southerly wind anomalies. Our model experiments demonstrated that the associated anomaly fields in the atmosphere partly stemmed from stochastic processes. The state-of-the-art dynamic models can only predict this marine heatwave one month in advance, indicating the necessity of improving prediction skill for marine heatwave's evolution in current models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Extratropical cyclones (ETCs) are three-dimensional synoptic systems in the middle and high latitudes. Previous studies on ETC propagation have typically focused on cyclones identified at a single level. However, more recent studies have found that ETCs have diverse vertical structures and cyclones with different vertical extents always exhibit distinct characteristics and surface impacts. In this work, we study the movement of wintertime (December–February) extratropical cyclones by classifying North Pacific ETCs into deep cyclones, shallow low-level cyclones, and shallow upper-level cyclones, based on reanalysis data from 1979 to 2019. Applying a Lagrangian perspective, we track the cyclones at different vertical levels to investigate the different characteristics and mechanisms for the propagation of deep and shallow ETCs. A potential vorticity (PV) tendency analysis of cyclone-tracking composites reveals that, for deep cyclones, the diabatic heating at 850 hPa and the horizontal advection by the stationary flow at 500 hPa are the main contributors to the poleward movement. For shallow cyclones, the nonlinear advection terms play a dominant role in their meridional motion, advecting shallow low-level cyclones poleward but shallow upper-level cyclones equatorward. A piecewise PV inversion analysis suggests that the nonlinear advection by winds induced from upper-level PV anomalies is responsible for the different performance of nonlinear advection terms for shallow low-level and upper-level cyclones. These findings further our understanding of the mechanisms and variations of cyclone propagation. Significance Statement: Extratropical cyclones (ETCs) can be identified at different levels in the troposphere. These mobile low pressure cyclonic storms are the main sources of synoptic variability in the extratropics and often bring severe or even disastrous weather. Previous studies on ETC movement have typically been restricted to cyclones identified at a single level. Our study, by identifying ETCs at multiple levels, classifies cyclones into deep, shallow low-level, and shallow upper-level cyclones. For deep cyclones, their poleward movement is found to be a result of diabatic heating at lower levels and dominated by the stationary circulation at upper levels. For shallow cyclones, nonlinear advection determines whether they propagate poleward or equatorward. These findings further our understanding of the mechanisms of cyclone propagation and imply that the movement of deep and shallow cyclones may undergo different changes with different weather and climate impacts in the future, given the enhanced diabatic heating under global warming, which deserves further investigation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study analyzes a convective outbreak over the Red Sea on 25 August 2009 that generated easterly waves over the Sahel, floods in Ouagadougou, and a hurricane in the east Atlantic. The convective outbreak occurred on the equatorward flank of the African easterly jet 18°-22°N and associated meridional heating gradients over the Arabian Peninsula. The Rift Valley mountains induced a vertical orographic undulation and cyclonic perturbation. Two thunderstorm clusters over the southern Red Sea received moist inflow from the Ethiopian highlands and northern Red Sea. This group of three easterly waves intensified downstream over the Sahel. One of the convective triggers was enhancement of the Arabian Ridge by the northern subtropical jet. Statistical analyses indicate that African easterly waves and subsequent tropical storms are more influenced by upstream kinematic shear than thermodynamic energy. The work offers new insights on the formation of easterly waves over the northern Rift Valley. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Potential and real predictive skill of the frequency of extreme rainfall in southeastern South America for the December-February season are evaluated in this paper, finding evidence indicating that mechanisms of climate variability at one time scale contribute to the predictability at another scale; that is, taking into account the interference of different potential sources of predictability at different time scales increases the predictive skill. Part I of this study suggested that a set of daily atmospheric circulation regimes, or weather types, was sensitive to these cross-time scale interferences, conducive to the occurrence of extreme rainfall events in the region, and could be used as a potential predictor. At seasonal scale, a combination of those weather types indeed tends to outperform all the other candidate predictors explored (i.e., sea surface temperature patterns, phases of the Madden-Julian oscillation, and combinations of both). Spatially averaged Kendall's τ improvements of 43% for the potential predictability and 23% for real-time predictions are attained with respect to standard models considering sea surface temperature fields alone. A new subseasonal-to-seasonal predictive methodology for extreme rainfall events is proposed based on probability forecasts of seasonal sequences of these weather types. The cross-validated real-time skill of the new probabilistic approach, as measured by the hit score and the Heidke skill score, is on the order of twice that associated with climatological values. The approach is designed to offer useful subseasonal-to-seasonal climate information to decision-makers interested not only in how many extreme events will happen in the season but also in how, when, and where those events will probably occur. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]