1. Migration, Petitions, and Taxation in Rural China: A Game-Theoretic Analysis.
- Author
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Takeuchi, Hiroki
- Subjects
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EMIGRATION & immigration , *TAX reform , *LOCAL government , *AGRICULTURE , *LEADERSHIP - Abstract
China's new rural tax reform that started in 2000 reduced the rural residents' financial burden. However, it gave rise to a serious problem of local fiscal crises, and significantly weakened the provision of public goods in poorly-endowed agricultural areas. Why did the reform aimed at enhancing the quality of provided public goods fail to do just that in areas that needed it most? Moreover, why did the central government make the decision of this tax reform despite giving the rise to local fiscal crises? I argue that the center's decision becomes less puzzling when considering an often overlooked factor: the center's policy preferences. In particular, I show that though the center has an interest in allowing local governments to collect taxes and provide public goods, this interest is not as strong as its commitment to market-oriented reforms and socio-political stability. When this interest and the commitment conflict-as they did when the increase in local levies sparked rural unrest in the 1990s-the center places its own political survival before local fiscal health. The adoption of the 2000 tax reform reflects the center's willingness to sacrifice the latter for the former. Moreover, by appearing to side with the peasants against predatory agents of the local state, the central government managed to re-channel the blame for bad governance onto local officials-thereby strengthening its own authority. Since local cadres are appointed by their superior government in China's authoritarian regime, they have few avenues through which to articulate their grievances against the central government when they are harmed by the center's reform policies. And yet, the personnel system in which local cadres are not popularly elected but appointed by higher authorities creates an institutional incentive for them to shirk and disguise the accurate information in their locality. Therefore, though the central government succeeds in strengthening its authority, it fails to grasp the reality of local governance in rural areas. This paper carries out the theoretical presentation of this discussion with the help of a game-theoretic model. A series of comparative-static exercises with the simple model are used to examine how nationally implemented reform policies have influenced the relationship between villagers and their local governments depending on pre-existing local conditions. The analysis in this paper shows that the increased possibility of outbound migration gave villagers substantial bargaining power against their local governments in rich areas, while it did not give them real power in poor areas. The easier outbound migration strengthened the villagers' bargaining power vis-à-vis their local government up to a certain threshold where the local government was forced to raise levies on non-migratory villagers to replenish its dwindling treasury, thereby triggering renewed popular resistance. Moreover, rural industrialization in richer areas served to delay the onset of this threshold, suggesting that local governments in more industrialized areas were able to avoid raising levies, while local governments in poorer agricultural areas tended to increase them. As a result, the model predicts that the financial burden in China's rural areas will have regressive characteristics. Since taxes and fees became a source of contention between villagers and local governments, the CCP leadership institutionalized certain participatory channels to defuse popular grievances. The petition system is one of those institutions. It is a remonstrative institution, through which villagers can challenge their local government's decisions and higher authorities can monitor lower-level governments' behavior... ..PAT.-Unpublished Manuscript [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2006