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• Climate adaptation policy in a large river basin is explored. • Empirical study of science and policy interactions during actual reforms. • Interviews with senior research policy professionals reveal dynamics of policy formulation. • Proposes legally prescribed procedures for utilising science in environmental policy formulation. Climate change has many disruptive consequences, particularly in large river basins experiencing drying trends and declining water availability. With pressure for more adaptive policies, understanding how institutions governing water are adapting to climate risks has broad international relevance. This paper examines the challenges of climate risk assessments in Australia's Murray Darling Basin, an economically and culturally important basin where national legislation mandates a Basin Plan based on the best available science. However, despite repeated scientific warnings about a drying climate, the current Basin Plan does not reduce estimates of water resources available, and its climate risk management relies on a bricolage of policy mechanisms, which appear insufficient for the magnitude of predicted changes. This paper outlines the findings of original research exploring why this occurred. It draws on interviews with 30 senior public policy professionals and researchers with deep experience in climate and water policy. The interview data indicate that minimising political risks were the principal reasons for abandoning proposed reductions in entitlements and for relying on historical averages for estimating water availability. As the reform process evolved, decisions about water-planning techniques became increasingly politicised, and the adoption of explicit climate adaptation measures became problematic. As a result, the Basin Plan neither reflects the broad scientific consensus about climate change nor makes specific allowances for declining water availability. Climate risks are downplayed while concerns about levels of scientific uncertainties appear overstated. Importantly, lessons emerge from this examination that could contribute to the revisions of the Plan, scheduled for 2026. More generally, the research finds that proactive climate adaptation policies for large river basins require sustained and well-designed institutional reforms, particularly the adoption of legally prescribed procedures for utilising science - and accounting for its use - in controversial environmental reforms. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is expected to seriously affect agricultural livelihoods and food security in all Pacific Island countries. The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organisation contends that, to adapt, both 'modern' and Indigenous agricultural practices and knowledge are needed. A challenge lies in combining agricultural knowledge systems and enabling adaptive knowledge to be shared amongst Pacific Islanders. Opportunities to integrate different types of agricultural knowledge (including 'modern' and Indigenous) are needed. This paper argues that international labour mobility programmes provide an avenue for knowledge exchange that can support climate change adaptation in agriculture. It presents empirical evidence from research with 33 Pacific Islanders who grow crops in their home countries and were employed in Australia's Seasonal Worker Programme (SWP). We demonstrate how SWP participation opened new possibilities for climate change adaptation in agriculture in the Pacific Islands. Adaptive knowledge stems from SWP workers' exposure to different agricultural skills and ideas in Australia, combined with their knowledge and experience of crop production in their countries of origin. SWP participation created opportunities for workers to draw on different agricultural skills and knowledge on return to the Pacific Islands. The ability for SWP workers to then exchange adaptive knowledge with other Pacific Islanders is enabled by their social relationships, the likes of which an official agricultural extension officer might not have to the same degree. So far, such adaptive agricultural knowledge and skills exchanges are serendipitous. There is scope to explicitly build climate change knowledge exchange into agriculture-focused international labour mobility schemes. • International labour mobility schemes facilitate agricultural knowledge exchange. • Labour mobility migrants adapt acquired agricultural knowledge to their countries. • International labour mobility schemes can build adaptive capacity in agriculture. • Adaptive capacity from labour mobility can spread via agricultural extension. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Local government organisations in coastal Australia have historically commissioned studies aimed at understanding risks in their locality to future sea level rise as a starting point for developing adaptation strategies to climate change. Therefore, the success of the overall adaptation activities of local government are strongly influenced by the way those initial risk studies are scoped and conducted, and how the outputs of those studies underpin subsequent adaptation planning activities within the organization. Mainstreaming of adaptation planning activities within local government is critical in terms of getting stakeholder support and required resources for its implementation. This paper analyses a sample of these coastal risk assessment studies across seven states and territories in Australia, with an aim to critically investigate the current state of practice among coastal local governments. First, we develop a typology of studies that have been undertaken by or for practitioners to understand coastal climate change risks, and discuss the applicability of the studies within the policy-making context of local government. Second, we identify a set of sample studies from the ‘grey literature’ through a systematic process and investigate to what extent they adhere to best practice risk management guidelines and principles, such as ISO31000. Third, we interview stakeholders from top performing studies to identify how/if the risk studies helped their organization in progressing their adaptation planning. We find that there is a significant inconsistency among terminologies in the coastal climate change risk assessment unpublished literature as studies use “risk”, vulnerability” and “hazard” concepts interchangeably despite their separate objectives and aims. Most studies perform poorly in evaluating risk against broader organizational criteria. Subsequently, it is difficult to integrate the findings of such studies into a broader organizational risk register, limiting opportunities for identified coastal climate change risks to be integrated into councils’ long-term strategic decision making. Conversely, the follow up interviews of studies that performed well in scoping and consultation in our assessment demonstrate that these aspects were beneficial to stakeholders in terms of informing adaptation planning. Importantly, the findings presented in this paper confirm the need for a consistent risk assessment approach for local councils in the coastal zone to underpin successful adaptation planning. This is a critical issue, not only for Australia, but for local government organisations globally given that sea level rise is a projected threat for all populated coastal regions worldwide. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background In Australia, co-benefits have rarely entered policy discourse and have so far failed to gain traction in climate change-related policy debates. This is partly due to the dominant perception about the difficulties associated with identifying, quantifying and incorporating co-benefits into decision-making frameworks. There is also limited understanding on the part of policy-makers about the profound policy implications of a ‘co-benefits approach’ as a paradigm that can address multiple policy goals, including addressing climate change impacts, achieving sustainable development, and enhancing health, wellbeing and liveability. Objectives Our paper addresses this gap by contributing to current understandings of the ‘co-benefits approach’ as a means of integrating climate concerns into local planning and development control in general. At a more specific level, the paper provides an insight into the Australian local government policy context to illustrate how to plan, generate and purposively promote co-benefits in planning urban built environments. Methods A desktop review of NSW councils’ web sites and their climate change-related policies was undertaken. A comprehensive online survey was subsequently conducted to investigate the extent to which councils have adopted a ‘co-benefits approach’ in their low carbon policies. Results Major barriers to integrating co-benefits in the policy process were identified in this research. They include: (i) local government's current practice of single-sectoral policy development; (ii) absence of an integrated and co-ordinated ‘whole-of-government approach’ to address climate change impact; (iii) over-reliance on quantitative decision-support frameworks; and (iv) over-emphasis on short term and readily quantifiable monetary consideration of benefits. Conclusion Local government's over-emphasis on readily quantifiable ‘monetary considerations’ in targeting benefits from climate change policies excludes a wide range of environmental, social and health benefits from incorporation in policy. This limits the achievement of optimal policy outcomes across multiple sectors using a co-benefits approach. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global climatic change is driving research and development in low emissions technologies. One such technology is the use of charcoal from biomass in steelmaking. This paper adapts social life cycle assessment methodologies to analyse the social dimensions of energy supply alternatives in steelmaking using regionalised production scenarios in Australia. Three energy supply alternatives are investigated: charcoal produced from Radiata pine plantation forestry; charcoal produced from Mallee eucalypt revegetation on agricultural land; and metallurgical coal. Impact indicators analysed include land-use, employment, workplace health & safety and a qualitative analysis of identified stakeholder issues. The research finds that biomass alternatives are significant generators of direct employment at the regional level; have concomitantly higher rates of workplace injuries and represent a significant change in land-use. Charcoal produced from Mallee biomass planted as a conservation measure on farmland, however, has the benefit of representing a shared land-use that provides an additional farm revenue stream and assists dryland salinity management. The paper finds that full substitution of coal by pine or Mallee charcoal does not provide a unique solution for optimising the social performance of the energy supply alternatives across all indicators. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Rural and regional hinterlands provide the ecosystem service needs for increasingly urbanised communities across the globe. These inter-related ecosystem services provide key opportunities in securing climate change mitigation and adaptation. Their integrated management in the face of climate change, however, can be confounded by fragmentation within the complex institutional arrangements concerned with natural resource management. This suggests the need for a more systemic approach to continuous improvement in the integrated and adaptive governance of natural resources. This paper explores the theoretical foundations for integrated natural resource management and reviews positive systemic improvements that have been emerging in the Australian context. In setting clear theoretical foundations, the paper explores both functional and structural aspects of natural resource governance systems. Functional considerations include issues of connectivity, knowledge use and capacity within the natural resource decision making environment. Structural considerations refer to the institutions and processes that undertake planning through to implementation, monitoring and evaluation. From this foundation, we review the last decade of emerging initiatives in governance regarding the integration of agriculture and forests across the entire Australian landscape. This includes the shift towards more devolved regional approaches to integrated natural resource management and recent progress towards the use of terrestrial carbon at landscape scale to assist in climate change mitigation and adaptation. These developments, however, have also been tempered by a significant raft of new landscape-scale regulations that have tended to be based on a more centralist philosophy that landowners should be providing ecosystem services for the wider public good without substantive reward. Given this background, we explore a case study of efforts taken to integrate the management of landscape-scale agro-ecological services in the Wet Tropics of tropical Queensland. This is being achieved primarily through the integration of regional natural resource management planning and the development of aggregated terrestrial carbon offset products at a whole of landscape scale via the Degree Celsius initiative. Finally, the paper teases out the barriers and opportunities being experienced, leading to discussion about the global implications for managing climate change, income generation and poverty reduction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• There is a distinction between usable and useful knowledge for climate change adaptation. • There are challenges to ensure boundary organisations have long-lasting impacts. • Two systemic changes are proposed to advance knowledge usefulness. Increased social and environmental vulnerability to extreme climatic events and inherent aggravation of environmental and social problems has placed climate change adaptation as an urgent challenge for decision-makers. Understanding and using climate change information to advance the implementation of climate-friendly policies further compounds this challenge. A rich scholarly literature focusing on climate change adaptation endorses that investing in mechanisms that narrow the gap between climate change information production and its use is crucial to increase adaptive capacity. Based on this assumption, this paper investigates the extent to which two collaborative projects that functioned as boundary organisations in Brazil (CiAdapta project) and Australia (Climate Change Adaptation for Natural Resource Management in East Coast Australia) increased access to information, and enabled the continual and continuous usefulness of produced knowledge for climate change adaptation. Considering the distinction between usable and useful information, we applied six criteria to guide the data analysis and extract key lessons from each project. Our findings confirm that face-to-face interactions are more likely to result in research having the societal impact that is being increasingly required by research and funding bodies. Our findings also indicate that two key systemic changes are critical for the long-term influence of boundary organisations for advancing climate change adaptation. These include changes to the science, knowledge production process; and shift in the political culture. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• We present a multi-disciplinary collaborative approach for developing a regional scale climate adaptation plan with the health and wellbeing sector. • This includes an innovative engagement and policy mapping strategy. • We demonstrate the application of this approach for developing climate change adaptation plan for health and wellbeing sector in Queensland, Australia. • We find that direct engagement between various key stakeholders is a critical element of translating scientific evidence of climate change impacts on human health into a regional adaptation policy for the health and wellbeing sector. The science of climate change and its impacts on health makes it clear that human health and wellbeing will be increasingly negatively impacted as a result of climate change. The health and wellbeing sector must respond to these growing pressures in order to continue to provide safe, quality care. Adaptation and mitigation policies need to be developed at different scales, including at a regional government level. Numerous challenges exist; for example, the necessity for collaboration between multiple agencies across scales, the tailoring of policies to the health issues specific to regions, and constraints on existing regional and local resources and adaptive capacities, to name a few. This paper presents a multi-disciplinary collaborative approach used to develop a regional scale climate adaptation plan with the health sector. Starting from a scientific understanding of climate change impact on the health sector in Queensland, Australia, the approach used an innovative engagement strategy to a) better understand awareness of relevant stakeholders about current and future climate change impact on the health of the population and on service provision, b) identify on-ground barriers to effective adaptation faced by the sector stakeholders, c) identify opportunities and benefits which would arise from adaptation, and d) identify what conditions or support stakeholders required to overcome those barriers, take advantage of opportunities, and achieve benefits from adaptation. Analysis of these findings guided the development of specific policy directions for the sector. We found direct engagement between various key stakeholders such as health service providers (e.g. hospitals), critical infrastructure providers, academics, local government authorities, and sub-sectors such as aged care and early childhood care facilities, was a critical element of translating scientific evidence of climate change impacts on human health into a regional adaptation policy for the health and wellbeing sector. The resulting policy, grounded in the reality and experience of health and wellbeing sector stakeholders, reflects their insights and concerns, and served to develop a level of sectoral 'ownership' (not 'top-down' imposition) which will be important for its successful ongoing development and implementation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• 2000 abstracts from 6 climate adaptation conferences over 10 years were studied. • Adaptation to climate change in Australia is evolving with more emphasis on action. • Some changes indicate progress, but others suggesting lack of research funding. • There is more conference participation by practitioners, less by researchers. • There is a shift from the natural environment to urban and infrastructure adaptation. The last decade has seen strong global growth in the number of climate change adaptation projects. To understand whether adaptation is progressing and is successful, some form of longitudinal tracking is required. The six adaptation conferences organised by the National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility between 2010 and 2018 provide a unique and novel opportunity to track adaptation progress in Australia. Each conference was accompanied by a call for abstracts for oral or poster presentation. The submitted abstracts form the basis of the analysis in this paper. We show that, over time, the balance of attendees shifted away from researchers and towards government employees, and the proportion of attendees submitting abstracts declined. The proportion of abstracts submitted by government employees and consultants has increased at more recent conferences. When abstract content is analysed, the results show that, over time, there has been a change in the focus of abstracts with respect to the sector, type and stage of adaptation. These trends indicate maturation of adaptation in Australia, but also suggest that lack of finance for research and action is having an impact. There is evidence that adaptation in Australia is moving from being largely planning based and towards implementation. This is encouraging, given that studies throughout the world have remarked on the barriers that exist in moving from planning to action. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Economic analysis of climate scenarios and alternative water policies is critical for development and implementation of appropriate water policies and programs. Mathematical models have been developed to assess water resources policies due to their ability to explicitly represent the biophysical dynamics of natural systems while integrating these within social and economic constraints. These models have been criticised, however, due to the problems of simplification, overspecialisation, plausibility and lack of empirical validation. This paper introduces a mathematical programming model which uses positive mathematical programming method to calibrate and model agriculture and water use in the Murray-Darling Basin of Australia. This paper reviews the theoretical and technical details of the model development including the key steps taken in collating and scaling the biophysical and economic data, and to address model parameterisation issues. The paper summarises results of an application of the model for assessing climate change impacts in the form of reduced rainfall and water allocations and increased crop water use for agricultural production. The results show the degree of variability in gross values under different climate scenarios compared to the base case scenario, especially in very dry years. The results also show how on-farm adaptation options and water markets can mitigate these losses. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: This paper explores how disclosure is used by key bodies in the Australian mining industry as a means to respond to climate change and ensure their social licence to operate. The study utilises a legitimacy theory framework and a multi-case analysis to examine the environmental disclosure practices via a variety of media of two companies and two industry bodies within Australia''s mining industry. It is revealed that a combination of legitimising strategies is undertaken by key bodies in the Australian mining industry, however to differing degrees depending on the organisation. There is also support for the notion that different media plays a critical role in facilitating the legitimacy seeking behaviours of the companies and industry bodies. This study extends existing literature on legitimacy theory by highlighting the value of utilising this perspective to explore contemporary phenomena such as corporate responses to climate change. The findings of this study have practical significance as they are expected to have important policy ramifications. One of the differentiating features of this paper, compared to prior studies utilising a legitimacy theory framework, is the examination of legitimising disclosure strategies at an industry level, which complements a company level analysis. Moreover, variations in legitimising disclosure strategies and communication media employed may be due to their focus on differing conferring publics and stakeholder groups. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: This paper provides an evidence-based contribution to understanding processes of climate change adaptation in water governance systems in the Netherlands, Australia and South Africa. It builds upon the work of Ostrom on institutional design principles for local common pool resources systems. We argue that for dealing with complexities and uncertainties related to climate change impacts (e.g. increased frequency and intensity of floods or droughts) additional or adjusted institutional design propositions are necessary that facilitate learning processes. This is especially the case for dealing with complex, cross-boundary and large-scale resource systems, such as river basins and delta areas in the Netherlands and South Africa or groundwater systems in Western Australia. In this paper we provide empirical support for a set of eight refined and extended institutional design propositions for the governance of adaptation to climate change in the water sector. Together they capture structural, agency and learning dimensions of the adaptation challenge and they provide a strong initial framework to explore key institutional issues in the governance of adaptation to climate change. These institutional design propositions support a “management as learning” approach to dealing with complexity and uncertainty. They do not specify blueprints, but encourage adaptation tuned to the specific features of local geography, ecology, economies and cultures. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

• Presents a typology of emergent risk that highlights the iterative and inter-related nature of climate change risk, and propensity for impacts, such as legal action and reduced debt access, to emerge subsequent to, yet far removed from, initial physical impacts. • Highlights current practice and gaps in local government risk management concerning emergent risk. • Highlights the potential and need for local government to consider, the application of risk transfer mechanisms such as catastrophe bonds in the face of historical and conceivable climate change-perpetuated reduced access to, and increased cost of, traditional mechanisms such as insurance. • Provides insight into barriers and enablers to local government agencies gaining an appreciation of the potential application of alternative risk transfer mechanisms. Insurance represents an integral part of local government risk management strategy. As climate change progresses, increased loss and risk related to extreme weather events such as tropical cyclones, could motivate insurers to withdraw from certain markets. In some regions, such a withdrawal represents an emergent risk that, when coupled with increasing populations and other climate change impacts, could leave local governments and ratepayers particularly vulnerable. This paper investigates such a scenario and its ramifications in the context of a region particularly vulnerable to climate change, through an exploration of the degree that consideration of emergent risks, such as loss of insurance, and the potential application of insurance alternatives influence Queensland local government risk management. The study finds little appreciation amongst government officials of emergent risk implicit in extreme weather events such as cyclones, little understanding of the nuances of risk transfer mechanisms beyond familiar traditional insurance and disaster funding mechanisms, and by default, a lack of appreciation of the relationship between the two. A lack of resource and leadership with respect to emergent risk, and an absence of dialogue between insurance brokers and local government concerning climate change risk arise as the main reasons for this result. This research is significant because it challenges current local government risk management practice through an exploration of the risks inherent in the process itself. This has potential social, economic and ecological ramifications in drawing attention to aspects of possible "uninsurability" and prospects of alleviation thereto. Further research is recommended to consider the insurance industry's part in this study's findings in order to inform current industry practice and thinking and further enlighten the causes of local government disengagement in this critical area. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper describes a risk analysis of the economic impact of damage to metal roofing of a typical contemporary (new) Australian house subject to extreme wind loading. The failure modes considered are roof cladding and batten-to-truss connection failures, with the effect of defective construction also considered. Monte-Carlo simulation and structural reliability methods are used to stochastically model spatially varying pressure coefficients, roof component failure, and load re-distribution across the roof. This spatial reliability analysis enables fragility curves to be developed that relate likelihood and extent of roof cover loss to gust wind speed. The annual economic risk is up to 0.3% of house replacement value. A typical house with construction defects increases economic risk more than sixfold when compared to the defect-free house. There is a 10% chance that a changing climate will increase expected losses for houses in Brisbane and Melbourne by 6–18% over the next 50 years. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Vulnerability is a term frequently used to describe the potential threat to rural communities posed by climate variability and change. Despite growing use of the term, analytical measures of vulnerability that are useful for prioritising and evaluating policy responses are yet to evolve. Demand for research capable of prioritising adaptation responses has evolved rapidly with an increasing awareness of climate change and its potential impacts on rural communities. Research into the climate-related vulnerability of Australian rural communities is only just beginning to emerge. Current research is dominated by hazard/impact modelling, drawing on a heritage of managing the risks posed by seasonal climate variability. There is a natural tendency to use the same risk management approach to understand the emergent nature of vulnerability. In this paper, we explore the consequences for policy advice of imperfectly examining vulnerability through the lens of an impact/hazard modelling approach to risk management. In a second paper in this series, we show how hazard/impact modelling can be complemented with more holistic measures of adaptive capacity to provide quantitative insights into the vulnerability of Australian rural communities to climate variability and change. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Increasing global temperatures as a result of climate change are widely considered inevitable for Australia. Despite this, the specific effects of climate change on Australian agriculture are little studied and the effects on agricultural pests and diseases are virtually unknown. In this paper we consider the impact of climate change on the Asiatic citrus psyllid (Diaphorina citri Kuwayama [Hemiptera: Psyllidae]); one of two known vectors of huanglongbing (citrus greening); a debilitating disease which is caused in Asia by a phloem-limited bacterium ‘Candidatus Liberibacter asiaticus’ (α-Proteobacteria). D. citri does not occur in Australia, but if introduced would pose a major threat to the viability of the Australian citrus industry and to native Citrus species. This paper presents an approach developed to understand how climate change may influence the behaviour, distribution and breeding potential of D. citri. Here we developed and describe an initial dynamic point model of D. citri biology in relation to its citrus host and applied it to a scenario of increasing temperatures, as indicators of climate change, on a continental scale. A comparison between model outputs for the three time frames considered (1990, 2030 and 2070) confirms that increasing temperatures projected under climate change will affect the timing and duration of new citrus growth (flush) necessary for psyllid development throughout Australia. Flushing will start progressively earlier as the temperature increases and be of shorter duration. There will also be a gradual southward expansion of shorter durations of the occurrence of flush. Increasing temperatures will impact on D. citri both directly through alteration of its temperature dependant development cycle and indirectly through the impact on the host flushing cycle. For the whole of Australia, a comparison between model outputs for the three scenarios considered indicates the seasonality of D. citri development will change to match changes in citrus flush initiation. Results indicate that the risk of establishment by D. citri is projected to decrease under increasing temperatures, mainly due to shortened intervals when it can feed on new leaf flushes of the host. However, the spatially heterogeneous results also suggest that regions located on the southern coastline of Australia could become more suitable for D. citri than projected under current temperatures. These results confirm the value of a linked host-pest approach as based on D. citri climatic requirements alone the model would have accounted only for shorter development periods and predicted an increased risk of potential distribution. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

A rapidly warming planet provides a significant challenge to the design, delivery, and maintenance of habitable housing across Australia. Information on the adequacy of current measures for cooling Indigenous houses in regional and remote communities in relation to climate change and rising energy consumption costs is lacking. Such information is needed to better protect low socio-economic status householders, people with pre-existing health conditions, and people living in climatically exposed regions. This article models the thermal performance of both existing and 'improved' (built to current national construction code standards) housing stock in relation to various occupancy density, cooling system, and ventilation practice scenarios. This modelling was undertaken for housing in Australia's tropical, arid, and hot/mild climate zones, matching the sites where most discrete Indigenous communities are located. Results show that retrofitting existing housing stock and even building new stock to meet recommended standards are not adequate measures for current or future climate changes. This paper challenges current knowledge, policy, and practices regarding Indigenous housing, demonstrating that significant reform is necessary to maintain habitable conditions and improve energy resilience. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Monitoring changes in the terrestrial carbon cycle and vegetation health can only be undertaken over large areas and on a regular basis using ecological indicators derived from satellite-based sensors. Climate conditions in Mediterranean ecosystems have undergone, and are projected to undergo, significant change in the future with marked impacts on forest and shrubland vegetation. In the southwest of Australia (SWAU), endemic tree species have experienced significant declines in health and mortality since the early 1990s primarily due to these climatic changes. In this paper we examine trends in Net Primary Production (NPP) from 2000 to 2011 as an indicator of productivity and health condition of the woody vegetation across the SWAU region. To do so, we examine NPP estimates derived from satellite imagery and climate data to answer the questions: (1) what is the extent and rate of change in NPP for the SWAU region over the study period, and (2) how important is fire as a contributing factor in the observed trends? Our results suggest that, similar to the global trend in Mediterranean ecosystems, between 2000 and 2011, overall NPP declined across the study region, with the majority of declines occurring in the ecological transition zone between trees and shrubs. Twenty-six percent of the 37,042 square kilometre of woody vegetation that showed a declining NPP trend, was affected by fire. The overall rate of NPP decline for the region was estimated to be −0.38 megaton C per year since 2000, indicating a reduction in the capacity of the region to act as a carbon sink. Under climate change projections, the observed decline trends are likely to continue and our results suggest that the carbon storage potential in this region is gradually decreasing following an ecological shift from tall tree-dominated to lower shrub-dominated vegetation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: The south-west of Australia is being affected by a warming, drying trend in its climate. In response to these changing climatic conditions, as well as changes in farm commodity price relativities, farmers have adjusted their mix of enterprises to favour cereal production. As a result, an increasing potential source of cereal straw for bioenergy production has emerged. This paper examines how temporal and spatial costs of cereal straw accumulation may affect the establishment of a bioenergy plant in the region, with climate change impacts being highlighted. Logistics models based on mathematical programming are constructed for a range of plant sizes. Modelling results identify the cost structures of cereal straw accumulation for these plant sizes. Plant sizes are characterised by different cost structures and levels of volatility in their costs of grain accumulation. The profitability of bioenergy production based on cereal straw in this region of Australia is particularly exposed to climate variability, especially for larger plant sizes. The projected change in climate supports a relatively small reduction in the costs of cereal straw accumulation. These findings will affect decision-making over investment in a long-lived specific asset such as a bioenergy processing plant. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: The International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predicts an increase of 0.2 °C per decade for the next two decades in global temperatures and a rise of between 1.5 and 4.5 °C by the year 2100. Related to the increase in world temperatures is the increase in Greenhouse Gases (GHGs) which are primarily made up of carbon dioxide (CO2), nitrous oxide (N2O), methane (CH4) and fluorinated gases. In 2004, the GHGs from agriculture contributed 14% of the overall global GHGs made up mainly of methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions. In Australia, the dominant source of CH4 and N2O emissions for the year ending June 2012 was found to be from the agricultural sector. With the recent introduction of the Clean Energy Act 2011, the agricultural sector of Australia is expected to develop appropriate GHG mitigation strategies to maintain and improve its competitiveness in the green commodity market. This paper proposes the use of Integrated Spatial Technologies (IST) framework by linking Life Cycle Assessment (LCA), Remote Sensing (RS) and Geographical Information Systems (GIS). The IST approach also integrates and highlights the use of Cleaner Production (CP) strategies for the formulation and application of cost-effective GHG mitigation options for grain production in Western Australia (WA). In this study, the IST framework was tested using data from an existing study (the baseline study) and two mitigation options. The analysis results revealed production and use of fertiliser as the “hotspot”, and for mitigation purposes was replaced with pig manure in option 1, whereas option 2 emphasised crop rotation system/s. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: The challenge of reaching common understanding of the processes and significance of environmental change amounts to a procedural vulnerability in climate change research that hinders successfully translating knowledge into equitable and effective adaptation policy. This article presents findings from research with Indigenous participants in West Arnhem, Australia, and identifies a procedural vulnerability to climate change research, where perceptions of change and their meaning have their context in Dreaming that supersedes and parallels Western scientific discourses of hazard and risk, but that are marginalised in studies and policies on climate change. This paper argues that moves to adapt remote Indigenous Australian communities to climate change risk missing the mark if they (a) assume that a strong reliance on particular ecosystem configurations makes Indigenous cultures universally vulnerable to environmental change, (b) do not recognise cosmologically embedded risks that are determined by Indigenous capacity to take care of country, and (c) do not recognise colonisation as an ongoing disaster in Indigenous Nations, and therefore treat secondary disasters such as poverty, ill health and welfare dependence as primary contributors to high climate change vulnerability. Procedural vulnerabilities contribute to policy failure, and in Australian contexts pose a risk of conceiving solutions to climate change vulnerability that involve moving people out of the way of environmental risks as they are conceived within colonial traditions, while moving them into the way of risks as conceived through the eyes of remote Indigenous communities. This research joins recent publications that encourage researchers and policy-makers to epistemologically ground proof risk assessments and to listen and engage in conversations that create ways of ‘seeing with both eyes’, while not being blind to the hazards of colonisation. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Public scepticism surrounding climate change is an obstacle for implementing climate change mitigation measures in many countries. However, very little is known about: (1) the nature and sources of climate change scepticism; and (2) its influence on preferences for climate change mitigation policies. In this paper, we investigate these two issues using evidence and analysis from an Australian public survey and choice experiment. The study has three key findings. First, the intensity of scepticism varies depending on its type; we observed little scepticism over the cause, trend and impact of climate change and widespread scepticism over the effectiveness of mitigation measures and global co-operation. Second, cause and mitigation scepticism play significant roles in determining public support for climate change abatement. Respondents who believed in human-induced climate change were significantly more supportive of mitigation. Likewise, respondents who believed that mitigation would be successful in slowing down climate change were significantly more likely to be supportive. Third, the general public tend to give the benefit of the doubt to supporting mitigation. Those who expressed higher uncertainty about climate outcomes were more supportive of mitigation than others with similar expectations but lower uncertainty. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Atmospheric CO2 is a major cause of reinforcement corrosion in bridges, buildings, wharves, and other concrete infrastructure in Australia, United States, United Kingdom and most other countries. The increase in CO2 levels associated with global warming will increase the likelihood of carbonation-induced corrosion. Moreover, temperature rises will increase corrosion rates. Clearly, the impact of climate change on existing and new infrastructure is considerable, as corrosion damage is disruptive to society and costly to repair. The paper describes a probabilistic and reliability-based approach that predicts the probability of corrosion initiation and damage (severe cracking) for concrete infrastructure subjected to carbonation and chloride-induced corrosion resulting from elevated CO2 levels and temperatures. The atmospheric CO2 concentration and local temperature and relative humidity changes with time over the next 100 years in the Australian cities of Sydney and Darwin are projected based on nine General Circulation Models (GCMs) under (i) high CO2 emission scenario, (ii) medium CO2 emission scenario, and (iii) CO2 emission reduction scenario based on policy intervention. The probabilistic analysis included the uncertainty of CO2 concentration, deterioration processes, material properties, dimensions, and predictive models. It was found that carbonation-induced damage risks can increase by over 400% over a time period to 2100 for some regions in Australia. Damage risks for chloride-induced corrosion increase by no more than 15% over the same time period due to temperature increase, but without consideration of ocean acidity change in marine exposure. Corrosion loss of reinforcement is not significant. The results were most sensitive to increases in atmospheric CO2. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: This paper presents the results of an evaluation of the longer term impact of a series of workshops conducted in four Australian cities which sought to engage representatives of the Australian public in discussions about climate change and low emission energy options. These workshops were designed to explore the public’s awareness and acceptance of the various low emissions energy technologies, including carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS), and to assess whether a large group workshop format was an effective means of affecting change in awareness and acceptance of the various energy technologies. Initial results of these workshops, presented at the International Conference on Greenhouse Gas Technologies (GHGT) in 2008, found that the workshop was indeed effective. Results from an online survey conducted in October 2009 with 95 participants of the original workshops indicate that over the longer term awareness remains at a higher level than prior to workshop attendance, while changes in participants’ attitudes were not sustained over time. However, the results of 22 follow-up in-depth interviews conducted in November and December 2009 found that many workshop participants reported a change in their awareness of and preference for the energy technologies, and that they pro-actively spoke with others and sought further information regarding the technologies and their place in a low carbon economy. While wind and solar energy were clearly favored, carbon mitigation was generally recognized as a complex issue requiring a portfolio of energy solutions. Building trust in the range of energy solutions, including carbon capture and storage, will require ongoing engagement and dialogue with members of the public. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Recent acknowledgement of the sensitivity of air quality to changes in climate has initiated a closer examination of the relationships between meteorology and air quality. This paper presents the estimated response of daily air pollutant concentrations in Melbourne, Australia to local-scale meteorology. The meteorological-pollutant relationships have been assessed after controlling for long-term trends, seasonality, weekly emissions, spatial variation, and temporal persistence using the framework of generalized additive models (GAMs). Overall, results found that the aggregate impact of meteorological variables in the models explained 26.3% of the variance in O3, 21.1% in PM10, and 26.7% in NO2. This indicates that meteorology – at the local-scale, is a relatively strong driver of air quality in Melbourne. Analysis of partial residuals plots found that changes in temperature, particularly when above 35 °C, resulted in the strongest positive response for O3 (150%), PM10 (150%) and NO2 (120%). Other variables (boundary layer height, winds, water vapor pressure, radiation, precipitation, and mean sea-level pressure) displayed some importance for one or more of the pollutants, but their impact in the models was less pronounced. In sum, we provide results that form a solid foundation for understanding the importance of local-scale meteorology as a driver of regional air pollution. Additionally, these results can be used to provide a window into how changes in climate may affect air quality. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Restoration of abandoned and degraded ecosystems through enhanced management of mature remnant patches and naturally regenerating (regrowth) forests is currently being used in the recovery of ecosystems for biodiversity protection and carbon sequestration. Knowledge of long-term dynamics of these ecosystems is often very limited. Vegetation models that examine long-term forest growth and succession of uneven aged, mixed-species forest ecosystems are integral to the planning and assessment of the recovery process of biodiversity values and biomass accumulation. This paper examined the use of the Ecosystem Dynamics Simulator (EDS) in projecting growth dynamics of mature remnant brigalow forest communities and recovery process of regrowth brigalow thickets. We used data from 188 long-term monitored plots of remnant and regrowth forests measured between 1963 and 2010. In this study the model was parameterised for 34 tree and shrub species and tested with independent long-term measurements. The model closely approximated actual development trajectories of mature forests and regrowth thickets but some inaccuracies in estimating regeneration through asexual reproduction and mortality were noted as reflected in stem density projections of remnant plots that had a mean of absolute relative bias of 46.2 (±12.4)%. Changes in species composition in remnant forests were projected with a 10% error. Basal area values observed in all remnant plots ranged from 6 to 29m2 ha−1 and EDS projections between 1966 and 2005 (39 years) were 68.2 (±10.9)% of the observed basal area. Projected live aboveground biomass of remnant plots had a mean of 93.5 (±5.9)tha−1 compared to a mean of 91.3 (±8.0)tha−1 observed in the plots. In regrowth thicket, the model produced satisfactory projections of tree density (91%), basal area (89%), height (87%) and aboveground biomass (84%) compared to the observed attributes. Basal area and biomass accumulation in 45-year-old regrowth plots was approximately similar to that in remnant forests but recovery of woody understorey was very slow. The model projected that it would take 95 years for the regrowth to thin down to similar densities observed in original or remnant brigalow forests. These results indicated that EDS can produce relatively accurate projections of growth dynamics of brigalow regrowth forests necessary for informing restoration planning and projecting biomass accumulation. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Disturbance of forested catchments by fire, logging, or other natural or human induced events that alter the evapotranspiration regime may be a substantial threat to domestic, environmental and industrial water supplies. This paper describes the physically-based modelling of the long term changes in water yield from two wildfire affected catchments in north-eastern Victoria, Australia, and of fire and climate change scenarios in Melbourne''s principal water supply catchment. The effect of scale, data availability and quality, and of forest species parameterisation are explored. The modelling demonstrates the importance of precipitation inputs, with Nash and Sutcliffe Coefficients of Efficiency of predicted versus observed monthly flows increasing from 0.5 to 0.8 with a higher density of rainfall stations, and where forest types are well parameterised. Total predicted flow volumes for the calibrations were within 1% of the observed for the Mitta Mitta River catchment and <4% for the Thomson River, but almost −10% for the less well parameterised Tambo River. Despite the issues of data availability simulations demonstrated the potential for significant impacts to water supply in SE Australia from wildfire and climate change. For example, for the catchments modelled the moderate climate change impact on water yield was more pronounced than the worst fire scenario. Both modelled cases resulted in long term water yield declines exceeding 20%, with the climate change impact nearing 30%. A simulation using observed data for the first four post-fire years at the Mitta Mitta River catchment showed Macaque was able to accurately predict total flow. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

This paper describes a process-based metapopulation dynamics and phenology model of prickly acacia, Acacia nilotica, an invasive alien species in Australia. The model, SPAnDX, describes the interactions between riparian and upland sub-populations of A. nilotica within livestock paddocks, including the effects of extrinsic factors such as temperature, soil moisture availability and atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide. The model includes the effects of management events such as changing the livestock species or stocking rate, applying fire, and herbicide application. The predicted population behaviour of A. nilotica was sensitive to climate. Using 35 years daily weather datasets for five representative sites spanning the range of conditions that A. nilotica is found in Australia, the model predicted biomass levels that closely accord with expected values at each site. SPAnDX can be used as a decision-support tool in integrated weed management, and to explore the sensitivity of cultural management practices to climate change throughout the range of A. nilotica. The cohort-based DYMEX modelling package used to build and run SPAnDX provided several advantages over more traditional population modelling approaches (e.g. an appropriate specific formalism (discrete time, cohort-based, process-oriented), user-friendly graphical environment, extensible library of reusable components, and useful and flexible input/output support framework). [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

In this paper, we undertake an empirical investigation into the possibility of climate change in Australian centres using average monthly air temperatures for six sites around the country over the period 1901:1–1998:12. By estimating a multivariate structural time series model and carrying out the appropriate tests, it is concluded that the temperature series is I(1). A graphical inspection of the extracted trends reveals that temperature has an upward trend in many centres. Given that the data may involve measurement errors, the results should be treated with caution. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Due to significant weather variabilities of rainfalls, potential water savings through rainwater tanks are expected to vary significantly. Moreover, within some large cities, significant spatial variations are reported. With the emerging impacts of climate change, existing weather and spatial variabilities of potential water savings are also likely to be changed, which are unknown to the end-users. This paper presents the impacts of climate change on current weather and spatial variabilities of potential water savings for Adelaide, a large city in Australia. Future daily rainfall data was collected from a data portal provided by the Australian government derived through a statistical downscaling modelling. Projected daily rainfall data was fed to an earlier developed daily water balance model (eTank) to calculate water savings for three future periods; 2030–2050, 2055–2075 and 2080–2100. Three weathers (dry, average and wet) in each period were considered along with two climate change scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) and two tank sizes (5 kL and 10 kL). It is found that varying outcomes without any general trend are expected depending on the projection scenario, period and weather condition. Contrary to the general perception, it is found that in several cases, the potential water savings are expected to increase compared to the current climate. Most of those expected increases in water savings are attributed to the projection scenario of RCP 4.5, in the near future and in dry years. In the far-future and with the projection scenario of RCP 8.5, most of the potential water savings are expected to decrease compared to the current climate. Regarding changes in spatial variability of water savings, it is found that the spatial variability will decrease in the near future, but will increase towards the far future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper explores Australia's domestic response to the issue of climate change, and charts the evolution of `no-regrets' as the guidingprinciple for policy development. The concept of no-regrets encapsulates the ecologically modern idea that addressing environmental problems can bring economic, as well as social and environmental, benefits. It is argued that the degree of reconciliation between environmental and economic objectives achieved has been made possible through a progressive narrowing of the scales over which costs and benefits are weighed, and the exclusion of the non-material benefits of the environment. Tensions between addressing climate change and continuing business as usual, which are far from unique to Australia, remain and continue to limit effective reductions in greenhouse gas emissions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper reports the effect of twice-ambient (700 ppm) atmospheric CO2 concentration on infection, disease development, spore production and dispersal of the anthracnose pathogen Colletotrichum gloeosporioides in susceptible (Fitzroy) and partially resistant (Seca) cultivars of the tropical pasture legume Stylosanthes scabra under controlled environment and field conditions. Reduction in plant height due to anthracnose was partially compensated for by growth enhancement at elevated CO2 in Fitzroy but not in Seca. Anthracnose severity was reduced under elevated CO2 although the reduction was only significant in Fitzroy. Delayed and reduced germination, germtube growth and appressoria roduction were partly responsible for the reduced severity. Despite an extended incubation period,C. gloeosporioides developed sporulating lesions faster and producedmore spores per day within the same latent period at high CO2 and ambient CO2. When Fitzroy seedlings grown at 700ppm CO2 were exposed to pathogen inoculum under field conditions, they consistently developed more severe anthracnose with more lesions than seedlings grown at ambient CO2. The environmental variable, which correlated most strongly with the dispersal and infection of C. gloeosporioides spores in the field, was relative humidity in plant canopy. We have shown that an enlarged Stylosanthes canopy under elevated CO2 can trap more spores, which can lead to more severe anthracnose under favorable weather. The implications of these findings for perennial Stylosanthes pastures are discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]