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• Bayesian network used to structure available knowledge and facilitate simulation of management alternatives. • Demand for urbanization and recreation were identified as dominant human drivers, exerting pressure on the beach ecosystem. • Demographic trends were integrated into a decision-making framework that supports beach managers. • Beach user surveys proposed as periodic network inputs, indicating beach recreational quality and management issues. • Urban WALROS classes were widespread across land-based sites, and more natural classes prevailed over water-based sites. Managing coastal areas under an Ecosystem Based Approach–Marine Spatial Planning framework acknowledges the complexity associated with the need to address multiple environmental and socioeconomic issues. The development of efficient management plans is critical to the implementation success of the framework; in this regard, unresolved challenges remain for measuring the effectiveness of planning plans and monitoring implementation progress. This paper describes the development of a Bayesian Belief Network as a prototype Decision Support Tool to assist coastal planning in the catchment areas of the Sydney Harbour, New South Wales, Australia. The model was co-designed with local managers, underpinned by the Drivers-Pressures-States-Impacts-Responses analytical framework to identify key coastal cause-effect relationships, and by the Recreational Opportunity Spectrum framework to account for significant recreational areas. The Bayesian Belief Network was structured on a conceptualisation of the relationships between key pressures affecting coastal management targets (biological areas and human activities) and their impacts on the state of the variables, with emphasis on the beach ecosystem. The socio-economic component of the model consists of predictive socio-economic modelling on preferred beach activities, the assessment of beach recreational settings, and a beach quality survey. Conditional probability tables were derived from local and regional databases. The model structure allows decision makers enhanced understanding of key interactions between management variables, assessment of management scenarios, and increased accountability of planning decisions. Future work on the prototype could expand the model to become a Bayesian Decision Network, through the integration of proposed management actions and their utilities, thereby helping managers identify optimal decisions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Economic analysis of climate scenarios and alternative water policies is critical for development and implementation of appropriate water policies and programs. Mathematical models have been developed to assess water resources policies due to their ability to explicitly represent the biophysical dynamics of natural systems while integrating these within social and economic constraints. These models have been criticised, however, due to the problems of simplification, overspecialisation, plausibility and lack of empirical validation. This paper introduces a mathematical programming model which uses positive mathematical programming method to calibrate and model agriculture and water use in the Murray-Darling Basin of Australia. This paper reviews the theoretical and technical details of the model development including the key steps taken in collating and scaling the biophysical and economic data, and to address model parameterisation issues. The paper summarises results of an application of the model for assessing climate change impacts in the form of reduced rainfall and water allocations and increased crop water use for agricultural production. The results show the degree of variability in gross values under different climate scenarios compared to the base case scenario, especially in very dry years. The results also show how on-farm adaptation options and water markets can mitigate these losses. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: This paper provides an evidence-based contribution to understanding processes of climate change adaptation in water governance systems in the Netherlands, Australia and South Africa. It builds upon the work of Ostrom on institutional design principles for local common pool resources systems. We argue that for dealing with complexities and uncertainties related to climate change impacts (e.g. increased frequency and intensity of floods or droughts) additional or adjusted institutional design propositions are necessary that facilitate learning processes. This is especially the case for dealing with complex, cross-boundary and large-scale resource systems, such as river basins and delta areas in the Netherlands and South Africa or groundwater systems in Western Australia. In this paper we provide empirical support for a set of eight refined and extended institutional design propositions for the governance of adaptation to climate change in the water sector. Together they capture structural, agency and learning dimensions of the adaptation challenge and they provide a strong initial framework to explore key institutional issues in the governance of adaptation to climate change. These institutional design propositions support a “management as learning” approach to dealing with complexity and uncertainty. They do not specify blueprints, but encourage adaptation tuned to the specific features of local geography, ecology, economies and cultures. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Regional-scale ecological restoration priorities such as increasing the extent and quality of native vegetation are generally planned at catchment scales, while on-ground restoration actions are generally implemented at paddock or farm scales. This paper describes the use of spatial multi-criteria assessment methodologies to construct maps of regional conservation priorities and assesses how these maps map influence farm-scale actions in Western Victoria, Australia (e.g. farm-scale revegetation for salinity, wind erosion, stock shelter, etc). The study also incorporates agricultural production in the decision analysis through the use of historical yield mapping data obtained from harvest logs from precision agriculture equipment. Via a stakeholder workshop, farmer land use priorities were elicited with and without access to maps of regional conservation priorities. Results highlight that production imperatives drive farmer-led conservation actions and that regional conservation priorities have only limited impact on actions. The paper also identifies limitations of applying MCA methods across multiple decision-making scales such as the need to generalise priorities where domain knowledge is relatively high, and the challenges associated with MCA criteria definition. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The River Torrens Catchment in Adelaide has suffered from poor water quality and flooding for decades. To address these challenges, a green infrastructure project, specifically a Linear Park, was created within the catchment. Although the project has functioned reasonably well since its implementation, its complex nature poses several management challenges. Despite the scale of this project, there is little scholarly literature available. Hence, to analyse these management challenges, this paper reviews the original project documentation, as well as regulations and policy documents together with findings from interviews with key project informants. The aim is to investigate the key drivers for implementation; the major stakeholders involved; and the challenges emerging from the multidimensional attributes of the project. The challenges relate to the inconsistent and informal management structure, the involvement of multiple stakeholders, and pressure from surrounding development. The challenges are further grouped under four main themes, including communication and collaboration, project design goals, institutional and political frameworks, and planning and development regulations. This paper argues that green governance is the key to the successful implementation and management of sustainable green infrastructure projects. The findings from this case study can inform policymakers, planners and researchers to propose appropriate scenarios to manage urban stormwater and to reclaim neglected waterways. • Linear parks have emerged as an increasingly valuable green space typology. • The morphology of a linear park can present complex issues relating to governance. • The River Torrens Linear Park exhibits such complexities. • Green governance is essential for sustainable development of linear parks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• MERRA-2 outperforms CAMS in capturing seasonal dust, consistent with Himawari-8 observations. • Dust emissions and depositions in Australia peak at 1.4 gm−2 during Spring-Summer. • Seasonal soiling show reductions in energy of ∼3% near the Lake Eyre Basin. • Rainfall bursts remove soiling of 3 gm−2 at solar farms, improving energy yield by 9%. Dust plays a vital role in the Earth's climate system and can also modulate solar energy yield from photovoltaics due to soiling and it also impacts concentrated solar power outputs by up to 30%. Research examining decreased energy production on solar panels due to dust accumulation is limited. This is particularly important for dry arid regions of Australia, which are prone to dust storms. Thus, this paper examines the dust characteristics over Australia by comparing two reanalysis products, the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA-2) and the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) with the satellite data (Himawari-8) to ascertain the capabilities of the reanalysis products in capturing dust cycles over Australia. The results are then used to explore the seasonal variability and trends in the radiative impacts, emissions, and depositions of dust. The energy reductions from seasonal averaged dust accumulations without natural removal or cleaning and later the impact of soiling with removal from precipitation bursts on selected operational solar farms are presented. Results show that MERRA-2 outperforms CAMS in capturing Dust Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) near the Lake Eyre Basin in all seasons, consistent with satellite observations. The radiative trends showed contrasting differences during the Spring and Summer, whereas seasonal dust emissions and depositions peaked at 1.4 gm−2. Similarly, seasonal dust accumulations without natural removal on panels showed significant reductions in the energy of up to 3% around the Lake Eyre Basin, but most operational solar farms in Australia depicted energy reductions of 8–9% due to accumulated dust of up to 2.5–3 gm−2, which was naturally removed from regular seasonal rainfall bursts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: In this paper we reflect on the challenge of reallocating water resources from agricultural interests to environmental uses. The area of interest is the Murray–Darling Basin, Australia, although the evidence presented provides salient lessons for a range of settings. We draw on the transaction cost literature where the tasks of re-designing and using institutions can help conceptualise the costs associated with policy change. A framework for improving ex ante assessment of transaction costs and its relationship to transformation or abatement costs is elaborated, especially as it relates to community consultation exercises. Against the background of the water reforms of the past three decades we conclude that policy makers and administrators could limit increases in transformation costs and contain transaction costs by giving greater attention to the form of community consultation, by taking account of the sources of uncertainty that attend policy choices and recognising the potential for consultation fatigue. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Despite the popularity and rhetoric of collaborative approaches, the successes of such initiatives are not widespread and remain elusive. Some commentators argue that without ‘the noise of participation’, a return to centralised governance should be reconsidered. Whilst this conclusion may be premature given the lack of rigorous analysis of collaborative approaches, it calls for a closer examination of contexts and processes that are conducive to the success of collaborative initiatives. This paper evaluates the scope of collaborative watershed management and planning in the Howard River Catchment in northern Australia. The findings depict the challenges of collaborative planning in a nested hierarchy with multiple institutions. The existing institutional apparatus can potentially constrain the collaborative initiatives to water planning. They include the norms of agency authority, administrative inflexibility and power structures in a nested institutional hierarchy. Delegating decision making responsibility to decentralized structures should be backed up by the development of the capacity of such structures. Considerable transaction costs exist in overlaying collaborative approaches across a nested hierarchy of multiple institutions. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: The tropics of northern Australia have received relatively little attention with regard to the impact of soil erosion on the many large river systems that are an important part of Australia''s water resource, especially given the high potential for erosion when long dry seasons are followed by intense wet season rain. Here we use 137Cs concentrations to determine the erosion processes supplying sediment to two major northern Australian Rivers; the Daly River (Northern Territory), and the Mitchell River (Queensland). We also present data from five sediment samples collected from a 100km reach of the Cloncurry River, a major tributary of the Flinders River (Queensland). Concentrations of 137Cs in the surface soil and subsurface (channel banks and gully) samples were used to derive ‘best fit’ probability density functions describing their distributions. These modelled distributions are then used to estimate the relative contribution of these two components to the river sediments. Our results are consistent with channel and gully erosion being the dominant source of sediment, with more than 90% of sediment transported along the main stem of these rivers originating from subsoil. We summarize the findings of similar studies on tropical Australian rivers and conclude that the primary source of sediment delivered to these systems is gully and channel bank erosion. Previously, as a result of catchment scale modelling, sheet-wash and rill erosion was considered to be the major sediment source in these rivers. Identifying the relative importance of sediment sources, as shown in this paper, will provide valuable information for land management planning in the region. This study also reinforces the importance of testing model predictions before they are used to target investment in remedial action. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Approximately 1.3 million ha of forested and agricultural land in south-eastern Australia was burnt by wildfires in early 2003. This paper describes a modelling process to assess the impacts of the fires on the quality of receiving waters and river systems in the fire-affected catchments. First, we construct and parameterise the E2 catchment modelling framework to represent the flow, and sediment and nutrient loads for the water storages and river systems in fire-affected sub-catchments and second, we assess likely impacts of the fires on loads of total suspended sediments (TSS), total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP). Very good calibration (with coefficient of efficiency values generally greater than 0.8) of the rainfall-runoff models to observed flow at several gauging stations within each catchment was achieved. Digitised land use layers were reclassified to form functional units representing unburnt and burnt land uses. Pre- and post-fire loads of TSS, TN and TP predicted by the model at end of catchment outlets and water storages were then compared relative to pre-fire loads. Compared to pre-fire conditions, the models predicted that the Ovens, Kiewa, Upper Murray and Snowy catchments would deliver, on average, approximately 30 times greater TSS, 5 times greater TN, and 8 times the amount of TP. Proportional increases in predicted loads at the catchment outlets were generally smaller than increases observed at water quality monitoring sites. These differences reflect the proximity of the monitoring stations to the burnt areas, the total percentage of catchment burnt, and the amount of rainfall. The predictions of load increases carry important assumptions and limitations, and such an approach can only be used for making relative assessments of the impacts of the fires on average suspended sediments and nutrient loads. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Knowledge of erosion rates and sediment yields from gullies is critical for the effective prioritisation of management efforts aimed at reducing the impact of gully-derived sediments on water quality. This paper describes a rapid assessment method for estimating sidewall gully erosion rates for already established gully networks. It combines a conceptual-empirical model of the cycle of gully initiation and stabilisation with an easy-to-apply technique for assessing gully extent and dimensions. The method is illustrated using a case study of the Avon-Richardson Catchment of north-central Victoria, Australia. It is estimated that a total of 4.6×106 tonnes of sediment have been generated in that catchment from gully erosion since the latest major phase of gullying in the mid 1800s. This is equivalent to 8.9tha−1 y−1 if sediment generation was evenly distributed spatially and temporally across the 3300km2 catchment over 160years prior to 2010. Current rates of gully erosion are estimated to be 4700ty−1 (equivalent to 1.4tha−1 y−1). The results are comparable with observed rates of sidewall erosion in the Avon-Richardson Catchment. Further testing is required to build confidence in its applicability to assess sediment yields and for assisting regional authorities to plan remediation efforts. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Disturbance of forested catchments by fire, logging, or other natural or human induced events that alter the evapotranspiration regime may be a substantial threat to domestic, environmental and industrial water supplies. This paper describes the physically-based modelling of the long term changes in water yield from two wildfire affected catchments in north-eastern Victoria, Australia, and of fire and climate change scenarios in Melbourne''s principal water supply catchment. The effect of scale, data availability and quality, and of forest species parameterisation are explored. The modelling demonstrates the importance of precipitation inputs, with Nash and Sutcliffe Coefficients of Efficiency of predicted versus observed monthly flows increasing from 0.5 to 0.8 with a higher density of rainfall stations, and where forest types are well parameterised. Total predicted flow volumes for the calibrations were within 1% of the observed for the Mitta Mitta River catchment and <4% for the Thomson River, but almost −10% for the less well parameterised Tambo River. Despite the issues of data availability simulations demonstrated the potential for significant impacts to water supply in SE Australia from wildfire and climate change. For example, for the catchments modelled the moderate climate change impact on water yield was more pronounced than the worst fire scenario. Both modelled cases resulted in long term water yield declines exceeding 20%, with the climate change impact nearing 30%. A simulation using observed data for the first four post-fire years at the Mitta Mitta River catchment showed Macaque was able to accurately predict total flow. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

This paper provides a robust estimate of the total natural denudation rate for the area surrounding the Ranger uranium mine in the Northern Territory, Australia. This rate will be used to assess whether the final rehabilitated landform of the Ranger mine will denude at the natural rate after the landform has stabilized. The approach adopted was to compile and analyze all existing estimates of the total denudation rate. (including both physical erosion rates and solution losses) from areas near the mine site. Where available, solution losses are based on local measurements. These were used to adjust estimates for other local sites, where only physical erosion rates are available. Adjustments were based on a global relationship between physical erosion and solution loss rates. The adjusted total denudation rate estimates were shown to have no statistically significant relationship with the time over which they have been estimated (the averaging time, maximum period about 59,000 years), which suggests that they conform to mass flux equilibrium. This form of equilibrium implies an equivalence between inputs and outputs of sediment and solutes for which there is some evidence. Because the denudation rates are independent of averaging times, the long-term average total natural denudation rate can be calculated from all of the data, giving a value of 0.075 ± 0.013 mm year−1 (75 mm 1000 years−1, 75 m Ma−1). This value is almost twice the previously quoted rate of 0.04 ± 0.03 mm year−1 (40 ± 30 mm 1000 years−1), which was calculated from a mixture of physical erosion rates and the total denudation rates including some from large river catchments. The derivation of a revised denudation rate provides confidence that the revised value, based on all available data, is representative of the region; and is therefore an appropriate value with which to assess the success of the rehabilitation of a post-mining landform. • The natural denudation rate near the ranger mine in Australia is estimated. • The estimation is based on date from the past 65,000 years. • The estimated rate will be used in assessment of the rehabilitated mine site. • The new estimate is about twice the previous estimate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Catchment managers face considerable challenges in managing ecological assets. This task is made difficult by the variable and complex nature of ecological assets, and the considerable uncertainty involved in quantifying how various threats and hazards impact upon them. Bayesian approaches have the potential to address the modelling needs of environmental management. However, to date many Bayesian networks (Bn) developed for environmental management have been parameterised using knowledge elicitation only. Not only are these models highly qualitative, but the time and effort involved in elicitation of a complex Bn can often be overwhelming. Unfortunately in environmental applications, data alone are often too limited for parameterising a Bn. Consequently, there is growing interest in how to parameterise Bns using both data and elicited information. At present, there is little formal guidance on how to combine what can be learned from the data with what can be elicited. In a previous publication we proposed a detailed methodology for this process, focussing on parameterising and evaluating a Bn. In this paper, we further develop this methodology using a risk assessment case study, with the focus being on native fish communities in the Goulburn Catchment (Victoria, Australia). [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

• A mathematical programming approach for the multi-action problem is proposed (MAMP). • A new MIP model that includes fragmentation penalty in actions (MAMP-E) is presented. • The models are applied to the Mitchell River basin in Queensland, Australia. • MIP models get shorter execution times and higher quality solutions. • The MAMP-E model obtains higher ecological benefits than the MAMP model. Planning for management actions that address threats to biodiversity is important for securing its long term persistence. However, systematic conservation planning (SCP) has traditionally overlooked this aspect and just focused on identifying priority areas without any recommendation on actions needed. This paper develops a mixed integer mathematical programming (MIP) approach for the multi-action management planning problem (MAMP), where the goal is to find an optimal combination of management actions that abate threats, in an efficient way while accounting for connectivity. An extended version of the MAMP model (MAMP-E) is also proposed that adds an expression for minimizing fragmentation between different actions. To evaluate the efficiency of the two models, they were applied to a case study corresponding to a large area of the Mitchell River in Northern Australia, where 45 species of freshwater fish are exposed to the presence of four threats. The evaluation compares our exact MIP approach with the conservation planning software Marxan and the heuristic approach developed in Cattarino et al. (2015). The results obtained show that our MIP models have three advantages over their heuristic counterparts: shorter execution times, higher solutions quality, and a solution quality guarantee. Hence, the proposed MIP methodology provides a more effective framework for addressing the multi-action conservation problem. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]