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China is the country with the most population in the world, and its climate is extremely diverse due to tremendous differences in latitude, longitude, and altitude, ranging from tropical in the far south to subarctic in the far north and alpine in the higher elevations of the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. Accurate assessment of its modern climate change is conductive to addressing global warming threat. Along with the development of Past Global Changes (PAGES) research, the focus has changed from paleo-climate reconstructions to using paleo-data for assessing the present and predicting the future. Previous studies have been devoted to climate change assessment using modern climate observations and simulations. This paper presents a new assessment approach based on the mid-Holocene, which provides a naturally oriented warming that can be compared to modern human-made global warming. A variety of climatic data, including modern observations, paleo-climate records, CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) and PMIP3 (Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project 3) simulations, as well as lake level models, were applied in this synthesis. Numerical climate classification was introduced to evaluate climate change impacts to Chinese climate zones on various time scales. The results show that winter and summer seasons have different response to the naturally oriented mid-Holocene warming but human-made global warming makes the warming trend appear in all seasons. Temperate and continental dry winter climates expand dramatically during the mid-Holocene warm period; however, the future global warming could have few impacts to Chinese climate zones. Furthermore, the East Asian summer monsoon was strengthened obviously by the mid-Holocene warm climate and strong low-latitude insolation. There is no consistent trend both for the winter and summer monsoon on the background of human-made global warming. In this study, a new benchmark was established based on paleo-climate to evaluate the impacts of human-made global warming. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Coastal morphodynamics and environmental changes have been obviously altered by global warming, sea-level fluctuations, and human activities. Palynological analysis is one of the most important tools for providing information on vegetation, climate, and environmental change, which can be relatively sensitive indicators of human activity during the Holocene. However, Holocene coastal morphodynamics and palynological evidence from the Pearl River Delta and coastal areas has not been sufficiently studied. In this paper, we carry out analyses using detailed grain-size and palynological records of pollen, spores, freshwater algae, and marine dinoflagellate cysts from Borehole QZK13 in the Pearl River Estuary (PRE), southern China. The results show information relating coastal morphodynamics, vegetation evolution, climate changes, and anthropogenic activities during the Holocene based on radiocarbon chronology. In general, the PRE experienced marine transgressive processes; sea-level and the coastline tended to migrate landward between 10,700 and 4250 cal yr BP. Meanwhile, abundant arboreal pollen (mainly Castanopsis , Quercus -evergreen, Oleaceae, and Castanea) and small amounts of non-arboreal pollen (mainly Poaceae, Cyperaceae, and Artemisia) were observed in Borehole QZK13, which suggests that subtropical evergreen broadleaved forests were distributed throughout the PRE and adjacent areas, and relatively warm and moist climatic conditions were present during the early-middle Holocene. After that, there were relatively cool and wet climatic conditions, and marine regressive processes occurred in the PRE during the Late Holocene (ca. 4250–960 cal yr BP) indicated by an abrupt increase in aquatic herbs and Dicranopteris. Moreover, we hypothesize that the Neolithic "cultural fault" in the PRE is likely related to frequent storm surges induced by extreme typhoon events that occurred ca. 3000–2700 yr BP. • Grain size, pollen, spores, freshwater algae and dinoflagellate cysts from the Pearl River Estuary were investigated. • Three major phases shown by palynological results were corresponding to the changes in vegetation and climate. • We hypothesized that the Neolithic "cultural fault" is probably related to the storm surges induced by extreme typhoon events. • Natural vegetation cover has suffered large-scale destruction by ancient humans during the Late Holocene. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Identify ancient flood events, which may be the reason for decline of the culture. • Pollen and heavy metals can be used to reflect the strength of human activities. • Pollen and heavy metals revealed the process of culture from prosperity to decline. • This paper defined the chronology from prosperity to decline of Shijiahe culture. • Climate change has been revealed by pollen and heavy metals since 4800 cal. yr BP. The Shijiahe Culture (ca. 4800–4100 yr BP), which originated in the middle Yangtze Basin, was a milestone of prehistoric Chinese civilization. To reveal the interactions between climatic changes and human activities during this time interval, the geochronology and multiple proxies (pollen and heavy metals) of samples from a 220-cm-deep outer wall at the Sanfangwan Site (a typical site of the Shijiahe Culture) were analyzed. Radiocarbon dating indicates that the age range of the Sanfangwan Site is ca. 4800 to 4100 cal. yr BP. From ca. 4800 to 4600 cal. yr BP (the early Shijiahe Culture), pollen assemblages were dominated by Gramineae and an anthropogenic plant community (e.g. Ranunculaceae, Chenopodiaceae, Labiatae, and Cruciferae), indicating an expansion in rice agriculture during this interval. High metal concentrations in the same interval indicate a large flux of metals from smelting and farming activities. Between ca. 4600 and 4100 cal. yr BP (the middle and late Shijiahe Culture), decreases in Gramineae and anthropogenic pollen mirrored the recession of farming. Concurrent decreases in heavy metals may be attributable to a decline in the smelting industry. Three episodes of high pollen concentrations and visible increases in hygrophyte pollen, Pinus pollen, and fern spores at 4600–4550, 4450–4350, and 4200–4100 cal. yr BP probably indicate the occurrence of several flooding events during the middle and late Shijiahe Culture, resulting in the migration of local inhabitants. This study highlights the driving effect of flood events on the collapse of the Shijiahe Culture. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]