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This paper describes a probability-based method for assessing the potential impact of climate change on urban water supply systems. Specifically, the assessment method uses probability distributions to place a confidence level on the plausible values of response variables. The Benalla water supply system has been used to demonstrate applicability of the proposed assessment method. For the application, the impact of the 2030 climate change scenarios on streamflows and system yield has been examined. The preliminary results have demonstrated that the proposed assessment method can provide valuable insights into the impact of climate change on water supply systems, allowing it to be incorporated into planning decisions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]