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This paper uses text data mining to identify long-term developments in tourism academic research from the perspectives of thematic focus, geography, and gender of tourism authorship. Abstracts of papers published in the period of 1970–2017 in high-ranking tourist journals were extracted from the Scopus database and served as data source for the analysis. Fourteen subject areas were identified using the Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) text mining approach. LDA integrated with GIS information allowed to obtain geography distribution and trends of scholarly output, while probabilistic methods of gender identification based on social network data mining were used to track gender dynamics with sufficient confidence. The findings indicate that, while all 14 topics have been prominent from the inception of tourism studies to the present day, the geography of scholarship has notably expanded and the share of female authorship has increased through time and currently almost equals that of male authorship. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Hypochondriac symptoms are commonly reported in health science students. With their incomplete medical knowledge, they may compare their own bodily symptoms with disease symptoms during the process of learning, which can lead to mental distress and the need for repeated medical reassurance. Objective: To estimate the prevalence of hypochondriac symptoms in Chinese health science students. Methods: A systematic literature search was conducted on PubMed, Web of Science, Embase, China National Knowledge Infrastructure, China Biology Medicine disc, and Wanfang Data on July 1, 2018. Additionally, the references of the retrieved papers were searched. Cross-sectional studies published in either English or Chinese that reported the prevalence of hypochondriac symptoms in health science students were included. The selection process was executed based on the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analysis, and study quality was assessed with the checklist recommended by the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality for cross-sectional studies. A random-effects model according to the DerSimonian-Laird method was used to calculate the pooled prevalence. Results: Seven cross-sectional studies involving 6,217 Chinese health science students were included. The pooled prevalence of hypochondriac symptoms among health science students was 28.0% (95% CI = 19.0%–38.0%). The symptoms were a little more common in females (30.0%, 95% CI = 19.0%–42.0%) than in males (29.0%, 95% CI = 16.0%–42.0%), but the difference was not significant. No significant differences were found between participants grouped by study year. Only three studies explored the coping styles of students with hypochondriasis, and these revealed a high tendency toward help-seeking behaviors. Conclusion: Our systematic review and meta-analysis showed a high prevalence of hypochondriac symptoms among health science students, indicating that it is a noteworthy phenomenon. We suggest that counseling and other support services are necessary for health science students. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Distinguishing certain and uncertain information is of crucial importance both in the scientific field in the strict sense and in the popular scientific domain. In this paper, by adopting an epistemic stance perspective on certainty and uncertainty, and a mixed procedure of analysis, which combines a bottom-up and a top-down approach, we perform a comparative study (both qualitative and quantitative) of the uncertainty linguistic markers (verbs, non-verbs, modal verbs, conditional clauses, uncertain questions, epistemic future) and their scope in three different corpora: a historical corpus of 80 biomedical articles from the British Medical Journal (BMJ) 1840–2007; a corpus of 12 biomedical articles from BMJ 2013, and a contemporary corpus of 12 scientific popular articles from Discover 2013. The variables under observation are time, structure (IMRaD vs no-IMRaD) and genre (scientific vs popular articles). We apply the Generalized Linear Models analysis in order to test whether there are statistically significant differences (1) in the amount of uncertainty among the different corpora, and (2) in the categories of uncertainty markers used by writers. The results of our analysis reveal that (1) in all corpora, the percentages of uncertainty are always much lower than that of certainty; (2) uncertainty progressively diminishes over time in biomedical articles (in conjunction with their structural changes–IMRaD–and to the increase of the BMJ Impact Factor); and (3) uncertainty is slightly higher in scientific popular articles (Discover 2013) as compared to the contemporary corpus of scientific articles (BMJ 2013). Nevertheless, in all corpora, modal verbs are the most used uncertainty markers. These results suggest that not only do scientific writers prefer to communicate their uncertainty with markers of possibility rather than those of subjectivity but also that science journalists prefer using a third-person subject followed by modal verbs rather than a first-person subject followed by mental verbs such as think or believe. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The construction of large renewable energy projects is characterized by the great uncertainties associated with their administrative complexity and their constructive characteristics. For proper management, it is necessary to undertake a thorough project risk assessment prior to construction. The work presented in this paper is based on a hierarchical risk structure identified by a group of experts, from which a Probabilistic Fuzzy Sets with Analysis Hierarchy Process (PFSAHP) was applied. This probabilistic analysis approach used expert opinion based on the Monte Carlo Method that allows for extracting more information from the original data. In addition, the coherence of the experts’ opinions is assessed using a novel parameter known as Confidence Level, which allows for adjusting the opinions of experts and weighting their judgments regarding impact and probability according to their coherence. This model has the advantage of offering a risk analysis in the early stages of the management of renewable energy projects in which there is no detailed information. This model is also more accurate than the classic fuzzy methodology when working with complete distribution functions, whilst it avoids the loss of information that results from the traditional mathematical operations with Fuzzy numbers. To test the model, it was applied to a 250 MW photovoltaic solar plant construction project located in southeast of Spain (Region of Murcia). As a result of the application of the proposed method, risk rankings are obtained with respect to the cost, the time, the scope and from a general point of view of the project. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyzes seasonal effects and their potential drivers in charitable giving. We conduct two studies to analyze whether donations to the German Red Cross differ between the Christmas season and summer. In study 1 we find that in the pre-Christmas shopping season prosocial subjects almost donate 50% less compared to prosocials in summer. In study 2 we replicate the low donations in the Christmas season. In an extensive questionnaire we control for several causes of this effect. The data suggest that the higher prosocials’ self-reported stress level, the lower the donations. The higher their relative savings, the lower the giving. Our questionnaire rules out that “donation fatigue” matters. That is, donations do not depend on the number of charitable campaigns subjects are confronted with and their engagement in these activities during Christmas season outside the lab. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Information about a person’s income can be useful in several business-related contexts, such as personalized advertising or salary negotiations. However, many people consider this information private and are reluctant to share it. In this paper, we show that income is predictable from the digital footprints people leave on Facebook. Applying an established machine learning method to an income-representative sample of 2,623 U.S. Americans, we found that (i) Facebook Likes and Status Updates alone predicted a person’s income with an accuracy of up to r = 0.43, and (ii) Facebook Likes and Status Updates added incremental predictive power above and beyond a range of socio-demographic variables (ΔR2 = 6–16%, with a correlation of up to r = 0.49). Our findings highlight both opportunities for businesses and legitimate privacy concerns that such prediction models pose to individuals and society when applied without individual consent. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Given a real-world graph, how can we measure relevance scores for ranking and link prediction? Random walk with restart (RWR) provides an excellent measure for this and has been applied to various applications such as friend recommendation, community detection, anomaly detection, etc. However, RWR suffers from two problems: 1) using the same restart probability for all the nodes limits the expressiveness of random walk, and 2) the restart probability needs to be manually chosen for each application without theoretical justification. We have two main contributions in this paper. First, we propose R W E R (RWER), a random walk based measure which improves the expressiveness of random walks by using a distinct restart probability for each node. The improved expressiveness leads to superior accuracy for ranking and link prediction. Second, we propose SR (pervised start for RWER), an algorithm for learning the restart probabilities of RWER from a given graph. SR eliminates the need to heuristically and manually select the restart parameter for RWER. Extensive experiments show that our proposed method provides the best performance for ranking and link prediction tasks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper demonstrates how Geographic Information Systems (GIS) can be utilized to study the effects of spatial phenomena. Since experimental designs such as Randomized Controlled Trials are generally not feasible for spatial problems, researchers need to rely on quasi-experimental approaches using observational data. We provide a regression-based framework of the key procedures for GIS-based empirical research design using georeferenced point data for both spatial events of interest and subjects exposed to the events. We illustrate its utility and implementation through a case study on the impacts of the Cambodian genocide under the Pol Pot regime on post-conflict education. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: Metal Road Safety Barriers (MRSB) are one of the devices implemented in roadsides to mitigate the consequences of run-off crashes. In Europe, they have to meet the requirements of the European Standard EN-1317-2. This article analyzes a set of run-off crashes against MRSB, for which an in-depth investigation has been performed, comparing them with the standard tests. It has been observed that in many of these real crashes, the barriers have not worked properly in spite of having passed these standard tests. This paper demonstrates which variables may be responsible for this, with the objective of helping to improve the current test standard through the analysis of new test variables. Methods: Multidimensional Scaling, a dimension reduction multivariate statistical technique, has been used to better understand how real crashes compare to standard tests, using several impact variables at the same time. Then, a statistical analysis has been developed to show the influence of the “Relative orientation impact angle” on the performance of the MRSB. Results: Most of the real crashes analyzed are close to “TB11” and “TB32” standard tests. In many of these real crashes, the “Relative orientation impact angle” is very different from the “Impact angle”, and in these situations, the vehicle is not safely redirected to the road concerning the so-called “Exit-Box”. Conclusions: MRSB are not working properly in some situations that are not far from the standard tests. To handle this, it could be interesting to include the “Relative orientation impact angle” as a control variable in new versions of the EN-1317-2 tests to guarantee the behavior of the MRSB. These results can help to adapt some test variables from the EN-1317-2 to what is happening in crashes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The ability to produce timely and accurate flu forecasts in the United States can significantly impact public health. Augmenting forecasts with internet data has shown promise for improving forecast accuracy and timeliness in controlled settings, but results in practice are less convincing, as models augmented with internet data have not consistently outperformed models without internet data. In this paper, we perform a controlled experiment, taking into account data backfill, to improve clarity on the benefits and limitations of augmenting an already good flu forecasting model with internet-based nowcasts. Our results show that a good flu forecasting model can benefit from the augmentation of internet-based nowcasts in practice for all considered public health-relevant forecasting targets. The degree of forecast improvement due to nowcasting, however, is uneven across forecasting targets, with short-term forecasting targets seeing the largest improvements and seasonal targets such as the peak timing and intensity seeing relatively marginal improvements. The uneven forecasting improvements across targets hold even when “perfect” nowcasts are used. These findings suggest that further improvements to flu forecasting, particularly seasonal targets, will need to derive from other, non-nowcasting approaches. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates the relationship between candidates’ online popularity and election results, as a step towards creating a model to forecast the results of Taiwanese elections even in the absence of reliable opinion polls on a district-by-district level. 253 of 354 legislative candidates of single-member districts in Taiwan’s 2016 general election had active public Facebook pages during the election period. Hypothesizing that the relative popularity of candidates’ Facebook posts will be positively related to their election results, I calculated each candidate’s Like Ratio (i.e. proportions of all likes on Facebook posts obtained by candidates in their district). In order to have a measure of online interest without the influence of subjective positivity, I similarly calculated the proportion of daily average page views for each candidate’s Wikipedia page. I ran a regression analysis, incorporating data on results of previous elections and available opinion poll data. I found the models could describe the result of the election well and reject the null hypothesis. My models successfully predicted 80% of winners in single-member districts and were effective in districts without local opinion polls with a predictive power approaching that of traditional opinion polls. The models also showed good accuracy when run on data for the 2014 Taiwanese municipal mayors election. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We introduce a new agent-based model of opinion dynamics in which binary opinions of each agent can be measured and described regarding both pre- and post-influence at both of two levels, public and private, vis-à-vis the influence source. The model combines ideas introduced within the q-voter model with noise, proposed by physicists, with the descriptive, four-dimensional model of social response, formulated by social psychologists. We investigate two versions of the same model that differ only by the updating order: an opinion on the public level is updated before an opinion on the private level or vice versa. We show how the results on the macroscopic scale depend on this order. The main finding of this paper is that both models produce the same outcome if one looks only at such a macroscopic variable as the total number of the individuals with positive opinions. However, if also the level of internal harmony (viz., dissonance) is measured, then significant, qualitative differences are seen between these two versions of the model. All results were obtained simultaneously within Monte Carlo simulations and analytical calculations. We discuss the importance of our studies and findings from three points of view: the theory of phase transitions, agent-based modeling of social systems, and social psychology. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Influence maximization has attracted a lot of attention due to its numerous applications, including diffusion of social movements, the spread of news, viral marketing and outbreak of diseases. The objective is to discover a group of users that are able to maximize the spread of influence across a network. The greedy algorithm gives a solution to the Influence Maximization problem while having a good approximation ratio. Nevertheless it does not scale well for large scale datasets. In this paper, we propose Matrix Influence, MATI, an efficient algorithm that can be used under both the Linear Threshold and Independent Cascade diffusion models. MATI is based on the precalculation of the influence by taking advantage of the simple paths in the node’s neighborhood. An extensive empirical analysis has been performed on multiple real-world datasets showing that MATI has competitive performance when compared to other well-known algorithms with regards to running time and expected influence spread. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Violence against women by an intimate partner (DV) is a serious public health and human rights issue. Attitudes justifying DV strongly predict its perpetration and victimisation. This paper presents gendered ecological analyses of the societal acceptance of DV in 49 low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) across geographical regions. Methods and findings: We utilised data from 49 Demographic and Health Surveys conducted between 2005 and 2017, United Nations Statistics and topic-specific meta-databases. DV acceptance was measured as the justification of ‘wife-beating’ in at least one of five circumstances, and by the summative scale. Stepwise multiple linear regression examined country-level social, economic and political empowerment predictors of societal acceptance of DV amongst women, men, and the aggregate gender difference. Women were more likely than men to justify DV in Sub-Saharan Africa and South (east) Asia with societal acceptance of DV being more widespread in these regions compared with Latin America, the Caribbean, Central/West Asia and Europe. Political conflict and limited economic rights for women were associated with higher levels of DV acceptance amongst women and men. Men in more democratic countries were less likely to justify DV. Amongst women, higher national female literacy rates predicted lower levels of justification. There were higher levels of DV acceptance amongst women and a wider aggregate gender difference in countries with a larger representation of women in national parliament. Conclusion: Justification of DV is widespread amongst women and men in LMICs with acceptance rates varying across countries and regions. Gender differences in the impact of contextual factors on DV acceptance supports a gendered approach to national-level interventions. Our findings highlight the need for tailored interventions targeting DV acceptance in conflict-impacted societies. The emphasis of inter(national) policies on the ‘empowerment’ domains of widely-used gender (in)equality indices need to be coupled with strategies tackling discriminatory gender norms. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study evaluated the effects of childhood experiences of parental corporal punishment (CP) and neglectful parenting (NP) on Japanese university students’ endorsement of parental CP (EPP) to discipline children, in relation to subjective happiness (SH). A total of 536 undergraduate students who showed no physical symptoms completed anonymous paper-based questionnaires addressing demographic characteristics, undergraduate classes, and recent health conditions on SF-8 (PCS, MCS). It was found that the proportions of participants who experienced pervasive CP and NP were larger in men than in women (36.5% vs. 19.4% for CP; 22.1% vs. 9.7% for NP). Multiple regression analyses (n = 346) revealed that the CP score was associated with positive EPP (β = 0.310, p < 0.001). Further, students whose major was nursery education reported significantly lower level of EPP; however, neither SH nor good recent health conditions significantly reduced EPP. The NP score was inversely associated with the SH score (β = -0.253, p < 0.001) (n = 346). In conclusion, childhood experiences of parental CP may affect adolescents’ views related to their own parenting. Further investigation using internationally comparable methodologies, especially in prospective cohort studies, is warranted, not only in Japan but also in other Asian countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines social class-based differences in influence in online review contexts. We explore four mechanisms for how a review writer’s social class may affect readers’ evaluations of the organization. First, we argue that, via a “contagion” process, organizations reviewed by higher-class individuals will be evaluated more positively than organizations reviewed by lower-class individuals. Second, we expect that higher-class reviewers will be seen as more knowledgeable; thus, their opinions will be more influential in shaping others’ opinions. Third, we expect that reviewers will be seen more influential when they review organizations that match their social class. Fourth, we expect people to be more influenced by those who share their own class background. A large-scale observational study of reviews (N = 1,234,665) from finds support for the contagion, the organization-reviewer social class matching, and the reviewer-participant social matching hypotheses, but disconfirms the hypothesis that higher-class reviewers are always treated as having more expertise. Two experimental studies (N = 354 and N = 638) demonstrate that reviewer class plays a causal role in both a contagion process and in an assumption of higher-class knowledge process, but do not provide evidence for the reviewer-participant social matching hypothesis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Large scale surveys are the main source of data pertaining to all the social and demographic indicators, hence its quality is also of great concern. In this paper, we discuss the indicators used to examine the quality of data. We focus on age misreporting, incompleteness and inconsistency of information; and skipping of questions on reproductive and sexual health related issues. In order to observe the practical consequences of errors in a survey; the District Level Household and Facility Survey (DLHS-3) is used as an example dataset. Methods: Whipple's and Myer's indices are used to identify age misreporting. Age displacements are identified by estimating downward and upward transfers for women from bordering age groups of the eligible age range. Skipping pattern is examined by recording the responses to the questions which precede the sections on birth history, immunization, and reproductive and sexual health. Results: The study observed errors in age reporting, in all the states, but the extent of misreporting differs by state and individual characteristics. Illiteracy, rural residence and poor economic condition are the major factors that lead to age misreporting. Female were excluded from the eligible age group, to reduce the duration of interview. The study further observed that respondents tend to skip questions on HIV/RTI and other questions which follow a set of questions. Conclusion: The study concludes that age misreporting, inconsistency and incomplete response are three sources of error that need to be considered carefully before drawing conclusions from any survey. DLHS-3 also suffers from age misreporting, particularly for female in the reproductive ages. In view of the coverage of the survey, it may not be possible to control age misreporting completely, but some extra effort to probe a better answer may help in improving the quality of data in the survey. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The possibility to analyze everyday monetary transactions is limited by the scarcity of available data, as this kind of information is usually considered highly sensitive. Present econophysics models are usually employed on presumed random networks of interacting agents, and only some macroscopic properties (e.g. the resulting wealth distribution) are compared to real-world data. In this paper, we analyze Bitcoin, which is a novel digital currency system, where the complete list of transactions is publicly available. Using this dataset, we reconstruct the network of transactions and extract the time and amount of each payment. We analyze the structure of the transaction network by measuring network characteristics over time, such as the degree distribution, degree correlations and clustering. We find that linear preferential attachment drives the growth of the network. We also study the dynamics taking place on the transaction network, i.e. the flow of money. We measure temporal patterns and the wealth accumulation. Investigating the microscopic statistics of money movement, we find that sublinear preferential attachment governs the evolution of the wealth distribution. We report a scaling law between the degree and wealth associated to individual nodes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper looks at the relationship between negative news and stock markets in times of global crisis, such as the 2008/2009 period. We analysed one year of front page banner headlines of three financial newspapers, the Wall Street Journal, Financial Times, and Il Sole24ore to examine the influence of bad news both on stock market volatility and dynamic correlation. Our results show that the press and markets influenced each other in generating market volatility and in particular, that the Wall Street Journal had a crucial effect both on the volatility and correlation between the US and foreign markets. We also found significant differences between newspapers in their interpretation of the crisis, with the Financial Times being significantly pessimistic even in phases of low market volatility. Our results confirm the reflexive nature of stock markets. When the situation is uncertain and unpredictable, market behaviour may even reflect qualitative, big picture, and subjective information such as streamers in a newspaper, whose economic and informative value is questionable. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The objectives of this paper are to predict life years lost associated with obesity-related diseases (ORDs) for U.S. non-smoking adults, and to examine the relationship between those ORDs and mortality. Data from the National Health Interview Survey, 1997–2000, were used. We employed mixed proportional hazard models to estimate the association between those ORDs and mortality and used simulations to project life years lost associated with the ORDs. We found that obesity-attributable comorbidities are associated with large decreases in life years and increases in mortality rates. The life years lost associated with ORDs is more marked for younger adults than older adults, for blacks than whites, for males than females, and for the more obese than the less obese. Using U.S. non-smoking adults aged 40 to 49 years as an example to illustrate percentage of the life years lost associated with ORDs, we found that the mean life years lost associated with ORDs for U.S. non-smoking black males aged 40 to 49 years with a body mass index above 40 kg/m2 was 5.43 years, which translates to a 7.5% reduction in total life years. White males of the same age range and same degree of obesity lost 5.23 life years on average – a 6.8% reduction in total life years, followed by black females (5.04 years, a 6.5% reduction in life years), and white females (4.7 years, a 5.8% reduction in life years). Overall, ORDs increased chances of dying and lessened life years by 0.2 to 11.7 years depending on gender, race, BMI classification, and age. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]