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Henan Province is the birthplace of Chinese civilization and one of the earliest human settlements, which means that the area has an important national cultural heritage. Traditional villages are an important facet of this cultural heritage, and studying their spatiotemporal characteristics in different periods has important theoretical and practical significance for the sustainable development and protection of cultural heritage in the region. This paper takes the traditional villages of the Yellow River basin in Henan Province that were formed before 1919 as the research object. Information on the ancient river was obtained through a literature search as well as via field research, and the important tributaries of the Yellow River in different periods were mapped using ArcGIS 10.0 software. The nearest neighbor index, kernel density estimation, standard deviation ellipse and other methods were adopted to analyze the spatiotemporal characteristics of the traditional villages. The factors that influenced the evolution of traditional villages were explored in depth by combining changes in the course of the river and water conservancy projects. The results show that the formation of traditional villages along the Yellow River in Henan Province has experienced a historical track of growth, contraction, growth and prosperity and stability. The traditional villages along the Yellow River in Henan Province generally show a clustered pattern, forming a dense concentration of traditional villages in the middle reaches of the Yellow River. The center of gravity shows a migration trend from southeast to northwest. In terms of influencing factors, the spatiotemporal evolution of the relationship between villages and their distance to water is closely related to climatic fluctuations, changes in channel, water conservancy projects and social and cultural factors. This paper deepens our understanding of the relationship between traditional village evolution and watersheds by improving the consistency between village spatial distribution and historical geography and provides a useful theoretical reference for the sustainable development of China's traditional villages. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The influences of human activity on regional climate over China have been widely reported and drawn great attention from both the scientific community and governments. This paper reviews the evidence of the anthropogenic influence on regional climate over China from the perspectives of surface air temperature (SAT), precipitation, droughts, and surface wind speed, based on studies published since 2018. The reviewed evidence indicates that human activities, including greenhouse gas and anthropogenic aerosol emissions, land use and cover change, urbanization, and anthropogenic heat release, have contributed to changes in the SAT trend and the likelihood of regional record-breaking extreme high/low temperature events over China. The anthropogenically forced SAT signal can be detected back to the 1870s in the southeastern Tibetan Plateau region. Although the anthropogenic signal of summer precipitation over China is detectable and anthropogenic forcing has contributed to an increased likelihood of regional record-breaking heavy/low precipitation events, the anthropogenic precipitation signal over China is relatively obscure. Moreover, human activities have also contributed to a decline in surface wind speed, weakening of monsoon precipitation, and an increase in the frequency of droughts and compound extreme climate/weather events over China in recent decades. This review can serve as a reference both for further understanding the causes of regional climate changes over China and for sound decision-making on regional climate mitigation and adaptation. Additionally, a few key or challenging scientific issues associated with the human influence on regional climate changes are discussed in the context of future research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper used original survey data in Shandong province of China to depict local farmers' perceptions of combined climatic and market risks, and their adaptive behaviors. Two Logit models were developed to capture the empirical relationship between farmers' risk perception of the combined risks and adaptive behaviors. Results show that farmer's risk perception of climate change and market significantly affected their adoption behavior of adaptive measures, including perception of rainfall decrease, gale decrease, drought increase, and price fall of agricultural products. Moreover farmers' adaptive behaviors are more sensitive to their perceptions of extreme climatic events. Addition of demographic factors can improve the explanatory capacity of the Logit model. As illustrated by the models, male and better educated farmers have greater willingness to take actions for averting risks, while household heads with bigger farm are more reluctant. A majority of respondents chose to construct farm structure for irrigation and water conservation to avert climatic risks. Insurance, which is regarded as an effective tool to help farmers mitigate risks and avoid losses, has not been sufficiently accepted by farmers in rural areas in Shandong province. This underscores the need of effective communication of knowledge to enhance farmers' coping capacity and to encourage their active response to risk. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Although ski tourism in China is experiencing a boom, and the number of operating ski areas has significantly increased, the influence of climate change on the future development of China's ski industry has so far largely been overlooked. This paper addresses this important gap by applying the ski season simulation model SkiSim 2.0 at 116 ski areas. Four main indicators of climate change impact were examined: ski season length, operational ski days in economically important season segments, technically produced snow and snowmaking requirements. For all ski resorts in China and all climate change scenarios, average ski seasons are projected to shorten (− 4 to − 61% RCP 4.5; − 6 to − 79% RCP 8.5 in the 2050s) while snowmaking needs increase (27 to 51% RCP 4.5; 46 to 80% RCP 8.5 in the 2050s). The results indicate that high regional differences in climate change vulnerability exist. The implications for altered competitiveness and development potential of the ski industry in China are discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As the largest terrestrial organic carbon pool, soil organic carbon (SOC) plays an important role in the global carbon cycle, but it is easily affected by land use and climate change. The Huang-Huai-Hai Plain (HHHP) in China, which is dominated by dry farming, is experiencing rapid farmland loss and gain (farmland use transition), which may cause drastic changes in SOC storage. To clarify the effects of farmland use transition on SOC in dry farming areas, this study adopted a land use transition matrix and spatial analyst tool to explore the characteristics of farmland use transition and its effects on SOC content and stocks in the 200 cm soil layer in the HHHP from 2000 to 2020. The results showed that the farmland use transition in this area during that time period resulted in a net decrease of 16.06 × 103 km2 of farmland, of which urban built-up land and rural settlements led to a net reduction of farmland by 9.74 × 103 km2 and 6.43 × 103 km2, respectively, which was mainly affected by climate, topography, and economic factors. In addition, the farmland use transition resulted in a net increase in SOC storage of 6.13 Tg C, contributing 44.32% of the net increase. This is likely because the change in land use type led to a change in soil bulk density and soil gravel content while altering the SOC content, which in turn affected the SOC stock. This study has important implications for addressing global climate change and maintaining sustainable agricultural resources. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Previous studies have examined the projected climate types in China by 2100. This study identified the emergence time of climate shifts at a 1◦ scale over China from 1990 to 2100 and investigated the temporal evolution of Köppen-Geiger climate classifications computed from CMIP5 multi-model outputs. Climate shifts were detected in transition regions (7%-8% of China's land area) by 2010, including rapid replacement of mixed forest (Dwb) by deciduous forest (Dwa) over Northeast China, strong shrinkage of alpine climate type (ET) on the Tibetan Plateau, weak northward expansion of subtropical winterdry climate (Cwa) over Southeast China, and contraction of oceanic climate (Cwb) in Southwest China. Under all future RCP (Representative Concentration Pathway) scenarios, the reduction of Dwb in Northeast China and ET on the Tibetan Plateau was projected to accelerate substantially during 2010-30, and half of the total area occupied by ET in 1990 was projected to be redistributed by 2040. Under the most severe scenario (RCP8.5), sub-polar continental winter dry climate over Northeast China would disappear by 2040-50, ET on the Tibetan Plateau would disappear by 2070, and the climate types in 35.9% and 50.8% of China's land area would change by 2050 and 2100, respectively. The results presented in this paper indicate imperative impacts of anthropogenic climate change on China's ecoregions in future decades. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper aims to analyse what shapes farmers' vulnerability and adaptation strategies in the context of rapid change. Xinjiang is semi-arid, with extremes of temperature, growing seasons and winds. Favourable socioeconomic conditions have boosted the wellbeing of farmers in the past decades. Interviews with forty-seven farmers led to the categorization of five groups according to the predominant type of farming activity: animal farmers, government farmers (leasing land from the Xinjiang Production and Construction Group), crop farmers, agri-tourism operators and entrepreneurs. High government support has aided farmers to deal with climate challenges, through advanced technology, subsidies and loans. Farmers, however, greatly contribute to their own high adaptive capacity through inventiveness, flexibility and a high knowledge base. Although the future climate will entail hotter temperatures, farmers can be seen as generally well equipped to deal with these challenges because of the high adaptive capacity they currently have and utilize. Those that are most vulnerable are those that have difficulty to access credit e.g. animal farmers and those that do not want to change their agricultural systems e.g. from pastoral lifestyles to include tourism-based operations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper provides a review of paleoclimate modeling activities in China. Rather than attempt to cover all topics, we have chosen a few climatic intervals and events judged to be particularly informative to the international community. In historical climate simulations, changes in solar radiation and volcanic activity explain most parts of reconstructions over the last millennium prior to the industrial era, while atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations play the most important role in the 20th century warming over China. There is a considerable model-data mismatch in the annual and boreal winter temperature change over China during the mid-Holocene [6000 years before present (ka BP)], while coupled models with an interactive ocean generally perform better than atmospheric models. For the Last Glacial Maximum (21 ka BP), climate models successfully reproduce the surface cooling trend over China but fail to reproduce its magnitude, with a better performance for coupled models. At that time, reconstructed vegetation and western Pacific sea surface temperatures could have significantly affected the East Asian climate, and environmental conditions on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau were most likely very different to the present day. During the late Marine Isotope Stage 3 (30-40 ka BP), orbital forcing and Northern Hemisphere glaciation, as well as vegetation change in China, were likely responsible for East Asian climate change. On the tectonic scale, the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau uplift, the Tethys Sea retreat, and the South China Sea expansion played important roles in the formation of the East Asian monsoon-dominant environment pattern during the late Cenozoic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Bulletin of Engineering Geology & the Environment is the property of Springer Nature and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

In the context of climate change, the impact of extreme precipitation and its chain effects has intensified in the southeastern coastal region of China, posing a serious threat to the socioeconomic development in the region. This study took tropical cyclones–extreme precipitation–flash floods as an example to carry out a risk assessment of flash floods under climate change in the Yantanxi River Basin, southeastern China. To obtain the flash flood inundation characteristics through hydrologic–hydrodynamic modeling, the study combined representative concentration pathway (RCP) and shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) scenarios to examine the change of flash flood risk and used the geographical detector to explore the driving factors behind the change. The results show that flash flood risk in the Yantanxi River Basin will significantly increase, and that socioeconomic factors and precipitation are the main driving forces. Under the RCP4.5-SSP2 and RCP8.5-SSP5 scenarios, the risk of flash floods is expected to increase by 88.79% and 95.57%, respectively. The main drivers in the case study area are GDP density (q = 0.85), process rainfall (q = 0.74), asset density (q = 0.68), and population density (q = 0.67). The study highlights the influence of socioeconomic factors on the change of flash flood disaster risk in small river basins. Our findings also provide a reference for regional planning and construction of flood control facilities in flash flood-prone areas, which may help to reduce the risk of flash floods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study examined the effects of climate change on rice production in 30 Chinese provinces spanning 1998–2017. The study used the pooled mean group technique to capture the long-run and short-run effects of changing climatic conditions on rice production. It further employed the Dumitrescu–Hurlin panel causality test to examine the path of causality between the key variables and rice production. The study found that, in the long run, average temperature negatively influenced rice production, but average rainfall had a positive effect on rice production. The results indicated that the cultivated area and fertilizer usage were positively related to rice production in the long run. The short-run results accentuated that average temperature favourably influenced nationwide rice production, whereas average rainfall had no substantial effect on national rice production. The cultivated area had a significant positive short-term relationship with rice production, although the impact of fertilizer usage on rice production was negligible in the short run. Besides, the results established a bidirectional causality between rice output and the cultivated area, but there was a one-way causality running from fertilizer usage to rice output. Finally, the results indicated that, except for rainfall, a unidirectional causality exists between temperature and rice production. The study, therefore, recommends that in the case of crop failure due to weather conditions, policymakers could implement a new pricing policy to mitigate the deterioration of the farmers' income. The government must also develop and implement an insurance scheme that compensates farmers for catastrophes induced by rainfall deficiency. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Advances in Atmospheric Sciences is the property of Springer Nature and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Forest dieback due to climate change poses a risk to mountain forests throughout the world, and has severe consequences in terms of lost ecosystem services for forest stakeholders. This contribution aims to analyze how forest stakeholders perceive forest dieback, and the way in which they adapt to it. We conducted qualitative in-depth interviews in three mid-mountain case study areas in France, Germany, and China, enabling a cross-comparison of different settings affected by forest dieback. Results show that forest dieback is not a new phenomenon for stakeholders who consider that it has increased over the last few decades, due to rising temperatures and extreme weather events. In all survey areas, respondents consider forest dieback as tangible proof of climate change, identifying context-specific impacts with varying levels of severity. Cause-effect relationships are not easy to establish. Forest stakeholders are unable to determine whether climate change is a triggering or aggravating factor. For adaptive strategies, respondents can be grouped into three main profiles: proactive, reactive, and wait-and-see forest owners. These types of stakeholders differ in terms of their investment capacities, economic dependency, emotional attachment to forests, knowledge level, and capacity to obtain actionable information through participation in institutional networks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this Perspective, we discuss whether in times of quickly proceeding global environmental change, radical global interventions like "climate engineering" may gain legitimacy in China and eventually be deployed or supported. We argue that one cornerstone for whether climate engineering, and solar radiation management in particular, could gain legitimacy in China, is its current weather modification programme. In China, weather modification is institutionalized and deployed on a large scale, and current narratives around the legitimacy to intervene into the local climate may provide a rationale for interventions such as solar radiation management. In the end, in the same way as Deng Xiaoping coined the phrase "stepping on stones to cross the river" in the era of China's Industrial Civilization, narrating China's "Ecological Civilization" may want to make use of "seeding the clouds to reach the sky". [See ESM for a summary of the article in Chinese.] [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The accuracy in estimating forest ecosystem carbon storage has drawn extensive attention of researchers in the field of global climate change. However, incomparable data sources and various estimation methods have led to significant differences in the estimation of forest carbon storage at large scales. Methods: In this study, we reviewed fundamental types of forest carbon storage estimation methods and their applications in China. Results: Results showed that the major forest carbon storage estimation methods were classified into 3 major categories and 15 subcategories focusing on vegetation carbon storage estimation, soil carbon storage estimation, and litter carbon storage estimation, respectively. The application in China showed that there have been 3 development stages of research in China since the 1990s. Studies of forest carbon storage estimation in province scales were conducted more frequently in the northeastern, eastern and southwestern provinces such as Zhejiang, Heilongjiang and Sichuan with high forest coverage or large forest area. Inventory-based methods, soil type method, and biomass model were the main forest estimation methods used in China, focusing on vegetation, soil and litter carbon storage estimation respectively. Total forest carbon storage of China was approximate 28.90 Pg C, and the average vegetation carbon density (42.04 ± 5.39 Mg·ha− 1) was much lower than that of the whole world (71.60 Mg·ha− 1). Vegetation carbon density from average biomass method was the highest (57.07 Mg·ha− 1) through comparing nine types of vegetation carbon storage estimation methods applied during 1989 to 1993. Conclusions: Many studies on forest carbon storages have been carried out in China at patch scales or regional scales. These efforts enabled the research of forest carbon storage to reach a relatively advanced stage. Meanwhile, the accumulation of massive research data provides the basis for subsequent research work. Some challenges are also existing. This review could provide a reference for more accurate estimation of forest carbon storage in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The frequency, intensity, and duration of extreme temperature events are expected to rise in the future and increase the related health risks of human beings. Using a novel, nationwide dataset that links extreme temperature and mortality, we estimated the short-term and long-term effects of extreme temperature on mortality in China during 2002-2013. Both extreme hot and extreme cold had immediate and long-term effects on all-cause mortality. Annual deaths per 100,000 people due to extreme hot and cold in the long term were considerably larger compared to the short term. The change in cold spell duration indicator exhibited the greatest effects on annual deaths per 100,000 people among a set of extreme weather indicators. Furthermore, cities with low economic development levels were more vulnerable to extreme temperature, compared to cities with high economic development levels. Our results offer important policy implications for developing a regional-specific extreme weather plan to handle extreme temperature events in China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate plays an important role in heating energy consumption owing to the direct relationship between space heating and changes in meteorological conditions. To quantify the impact, the Transient System Simulation Program software was used to simulate the heating loads of office buildings in Harbin, Tianjin, and Shanghai, representing three major climate zones (i.e., severe cold, cold, and hot summer and cold winter climate zones) in China during 1961-2010. Stepwise multiple linear regression was performed to determine the key climatic parameters influencing heating energy consumption. The results showed that dry bulb temperature (DBT) is the dominant climatic parameter affecting building heating loads in all three climate zones across China during the heating period at daily, monthly, and yearly scales (R2 ≥ 0.86). With the continuous warming climate in winter over the past 50 years, heating loads decreased by 14.2, 7.2, and 7.1 W/m2 in Harbin, Tianjin, and Shanghai, respectively, indicating that the decreasing rate is more apparent in severe cold climate zone. When the DBT increases by 1 °C, the heating loads decrease by 253.1 W/m2 in Harbin, 177.2 W/m2 in Tianjin, and 126.4 W/m2 in Shanghai. These results suggest that the heating energy consumption can be well predicted by the regression models at different temporal scales in different climate conditions owing to the high determination coefficients. In addition, a greater decrease in heating energy consumption in northern severe cold and cold climate zones may efficiently promote the energy saving in these areas with high energy consumption for heating. Particularly, the likely future increase in temperatures should be considered in improving building energy efficiency. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Advance in spring plant phenology over the last several decades has been found in all continents of the Northern Hemisphere. Compared to the studies detecting phenological trends, the studies investigating the geographical pattern of phenological variability (including mean date and magnitude of variability) are rather limited. In this study, we analyzed spatial pattern of mean date and standard deviation (SD) of first bloom date (FBD) time series (≥15 years) for black locust ( Robinia pseudoacacia) at 22 stations in China, common lilac ( Syringa vulgaris) at 79 stations in the Western US and Chinese lilac ( Syringa chinensis) at 45 stations in the Eastern US. Subsequently, the impact of geographical factors (latitude, longitude, and altitude) on the mean date and SD was quantified by using the multiple regression analysis method. Meanwhile, the relationship between FBD variability and temperature sensitivity of FBD was examined. Results showed that the mean FBD highly depended on geographical factors for all the three species. Compared to the mean date, the dependence of SD of FBD time series on geographical factors was weaker. The geographical factors could only explain 13 to 31 % of spatial variance in SD of FBD. The negative regression coefficients of latitude ( P < 0.05 except black locust) indicated that FBD is more variable at lower latitude. At most of stations, significant and negative correlations between FBD and preseason temperature on interannual scale were found, but the temperature sensitivity varied among different stations. The magnitude of temperature sensitivity decreased with increasing latitude. In general, the locations at lower latitude had earlier and more variable spring phenophase and showed stronger phenological response to climate change than the locations at higher latitude. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Based on observations and 12 simulations from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models, climatic extremes and their changes over China in the past and under the future scenarios of three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) are analyzed. In observations, frost days (FD) and low-temperature threshold days (TN10P) show a decreasing trend, and summer days (SU), high-temperature threshold days (TX90P), heavy precipitation days (R20), and the contribution of heavy precipitation days (P95T) show an increasing trend. Most models are able to simulate the main characteristics of most extreme indices. In particular, the mean FD and TX90P are reproduced the best, and the basic trends of FD, TN10P, SU and TX90P are represented. For the FD and SU indexes, most models show good ability in capturing the spatial differences between the mean state of the periods 1986-2005 and 1961-80; however, for other indices, the simulation abilities for spatial disparity are less satisfactory and need to be improved. Under the high emissions scenario of RCP8.5, the century-scale linear changes of the multi-model ensemble (MME) for FD, SU, TN10P, TX90P, R20 and P95T are −46.9, 46.0, −27.1, 175.4, and 2.9 days, and 9.9%, respectively; and the spatial change scope for each index is consistent with the emissions intensity. Due to the complexities of physical process parameterizations and the limitation of forcing data, great uncertainty still exists with respect to the simulation of climatic extremes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent shifts in phenology reflect the biological response to current climate change. Aiming to enhance our understanding of phenological responses to climate change, we developed, calibrated and validated spatio-temporal models of first leaf date (FLD) for 20 broadleaved deciduous plants in China. Using daily meteorological data from the Chinese Meteorological Administration and the Community Climate System Model, version 3 (CCSM3) created using three IPCC scenarios (A2, A1B and B1), we described the FLD time series of each species over the past 50 years, extrapolating from these results to simulate estimated FLD changes for each species during the twenty-first century. Model validation suggests that our spatio-temporal models can simulate FLD accurately with R (explained variance) >0.60. Model simulations show that, from 1952 to 2007, the FLD in China advanced at a rate of −1.14 days decade on average. Furthermore, changes in FLD showed noticeable variation between regions, with clearer advances observed in the north than in the south of the country. The model indicates that the advances in FLD observed from 1952-2007 in China will continue over the twenty-first century, although significant differences among species and different climate scenarios are expected. The average trend of FLD advance in China during the twenty-first century is modeled as being −1.92 days decade under the A2 scenario, −1.10 days decade under the A1B scenario and −0.74 days decade under the B2 scenario. The spatial pattern of FLD change for the period 2011-2099 is modeled as being similar but showing some difference from patterns in the 1952-2007 period. At the interspecific level, early-leafing species were found to show a greater advance in FLD, while species with larger distributions tended to show a weaker advance in FLD. These simulated changes in phenology may have significant implications for plant distribution as well as ecosystem structure and function. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An overview of basic research on climate change in recent years in China is presented. In the past 100 years in China, average annual mean surface air temperature (SAT) has increased at a rate ranging from 0.03°C (10 yr) to 0.12°C (10 yr). This warming is more evident in northern China and is more significant in winter and spring. In the past 50 years in China, at least 27% of the average annual warming has been caused by urbanization. Overall, no significant trends have been detected in annual and/or summer precipitation in China on a whole for the past 100 years or 50 years. Both increases and decreases in frequencies of major extreme climate events have been observed for the past 50 years. The frequencies of extreme temperature events have generally displayed a consistent pattern of change across the country, while the frequencies of extreme precipitation events have shown only regionally and seasonally significant trends. The frequency of tropical cyclone landfall decreased slightly, but the frequency of sand/dust storms decreased significantly. Proxy records indicate that the annual mean SAT in the past a few decades is the highest in the past 400-500 years in China, but it may not have exceeded the highest level of the Medieval Warm Period (1000-1300 AD). Proxy records also indicate that droughts and floods in eastern China have been characterized by continuously abnormal rainfall periods, with the frequencies of extreme droughts and floods in the 20th century most likely being near the average levels of the past 2000 years. The attribution studies suggest that increasing greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations in the atmosphere are likely to be a main factor for the observed surface warming nationwide. The Yangtze River and Huaihe River basins underwent a cooling trend in summer over the past 50 years, which might have been caused by increased aerosol concentrations and cloud cover. However, natural climate variability might have been a main driver for the mean and extreme precipitation variations observed over the past century. Climate models generally perform well in simulating the variations of annual mean SAT in China. They have also been used to project future changes in SAT under varied GHG emission scenarios. Large uncertainties have remained in these model-based projections, however, especially for the projected trends of regional precipitation and extreme climate events. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change in the 21st century over China is simulated using the Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP) Regional Climate Model version 3 (RegCM3). The model is one-way nested within the global model CCSR/NIES/FRCGC MIROC3.2_hires (Center for Climate System Research/National Institute for Environmental Studies/Frontier Research Center for Global Change/Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate). A 150-year (1951-2100) transient simulation is conducted at 25 km grid spacing, under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (IPCC SRES) A1B scenario. Simulations of present climate conditions in China by RegCM3 are compared against observations to assess model performance. Results show that RegCM3 reproduces the observed spatial structure of surface air temperature and precipitation well. Changes in mean temperature and precipitation in December-January-February (DJF) and June-July-August (JJA) during the middle and end of the 21st century are analyzed. Significant future warming is simulated by RegCM3. This warming becomes greater with time, and increased warming is simulated at high latitude and high altitude (Tibetan Plateau) areas. In the middle of the 21st century in DJF, a general increase of precipitation is found in most areas, except over the Tibetan Plateau. Precipitation changes in JJA show an increase over northwest China and a decrease over the Tibetan Plateau. There is a mixture of positive and negative changes in eastern China. The change pattern at the end of the century is generally consistent with that in mid century, except in some small areas, and the magnitude of change is usually larger. In addition, the simulation is compared with a previous simulation of the RegCM3 driven by a different global model, to address uncertainties of the projected climate change in China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The timing of phenological events is highly responsive to global environmental change, and shifts in a phenological phase can affect terrestrial ecosystems, agriculture and economics. We analyzed changes in phenology for the spring season in China that occurred between the 1960's and the 2000's using four methods: species-level observations, meta-analysis, satellite measurements and phenology modeling. Previous analyses have rarely been reported due to sparse observations. Our results suggest that spring in China has started on average 2.88 days earlier per decade in response to spring warming by −4.93 days per degree Celsius over the last three decades. The shift towards an earlier start of spring was faster in two forest biomes (spring started on average 3.90 days earlier per decade) than in three grassland biomes (spring started on average 0.95 day earlier per decade). This difference was probably due to increased precipitation impacts in the grassland biomes. Interannual variations in the start of spring were most likely attributed to annual fluctuations in spring temperature (∼40%) and in large-scale circulation anomalies (∼20%). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To address the increasing hazards of climate change to winter oilseed rape production in Jiangsu province, southeast China, a total of 12 agro-meteorological disaster indices (MDI) during 1961–2012 was applied to quantify the disaster impacts of spring precipitation extremes, autumn droughts, winter freezing injuries, and spring chilling injuries. The main findings were as follows: (1) due to the obvious north-south gradient of MDI, this province was classified as four climactic sub-regions: north, central-north, central-south, and south Jiangsu, respectively; (2) in central-north, central-south, and south Jiangsu, the maximum length of dry spell during autumn (DI3), the maximum duration of consecutive rainfalls during spring (PI3), and number of rainy days during spring (PI1) were selected as the leading MDI affecting oilseed rape yield, respectively; (3) each 1d of DI3, PI3, and PI1 increase would result in yield losses of 0.7%, 3.6%, and 1.7% in central-north, central-south, and south Jiangsu, respectively; (4) compared to the weak changes in spring rainfall and autumn drought, the significant weakening of winter-spring cold extremes across Jiangsu had more notable yield increasing effects, especially the strong decrease of freezing events during winter had increased yield by up to 1.4–3.0%. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]