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Strong earthquake geological hazards cause significant social and economic losses. The assessment of post-earthquake socioeconomic development levels is one of the important bases from which to measure the recovery capacity of hazard areas. However, the long-term impact of geological hazards is rarely considered in the assessment of the socioeconomic development level of a mountainous earthquake-stricken area. The purpose of this paper is to study the complex relationship between earthquake geological hazard effects and socioeconomic development in the long-term post-earthquake development and reconstruction of mountainous extremely earthquake-stricken areas, to provide a reference for the study area to achieve regional sustainable development goals and high-quality development. On this basis, using the economic, social, ecological environment and other relevant data from 2008 to 2016, and using unsupervised machine learning algorithms, a socioeconomic development level evaluation model based on spectral clustering was established, and the effects of different kernel function scale parameters on the model were analyzed. The optimal parameters were determined, and the spatiotemporal analysis of the socioeconomic development level of the study area was carried out. The research results show that the performance of the evaluation model is optimal when the output category is 4 and the scale parameter is 0.26, and the scale parameter of the kernel function is an important indicator that affects the accuracy of the model. From 2008 to 2016, the socioeconomic development level of Qingchuan has always been at a very low level, Wenchuan and Beichuan have always been at a low level, Shifang and Mianzhu have always been at a high level, and Pengzhou and Dujiangyan have always been at a very high level. The socioeconomic development level of Anxian, Maoxian and Pingwu fluctuates greatly over time. Another interesting finding is that the socioeconomic development level of the mountainous earthquake-stricken area has a strong correlation with its own industrial structure and landslide hazard effects. The work done in this paper is of great significance for understanding the temporal and spatial effects of hazards and understanding the complexities of regional disaster systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The analysis of collaborative contribution networks and hot spots in earthquake research from a global perspective will reveal some rules and trends in this field that will provide references and macroguidance for scientific researchers in the field. With the help of data analysis software Excel and visualization software VOSviewer, this study mainly uses two methods of bibliometric and social network analysis to analyze 66,296 papers on the subject of "earthquake" collecting in Web of Science in 2009–2018 from multiple perspectives. In the past 10 years, scientific research output in the earthquake field has steadily increased year by year with an evident cross subject. The contribution of co-publishing is much higher than that of single publishing, and it has a higher number of citations and displays. Half of the 50 keywords with the highest frequency of co-occurrence are the continuation of hot spots in 1900–2010. The evolution of hot spots shows that in the average publishing year of 2013.5–2015.0, hot spots have changed from old to new, but few new hot spots have appeared in the past 2 years. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Predictive models for spatial correlation play an effective role in the assessment of seismic risk associated with distributed infrastructure and building portfolios. However, existing models often rely on simplified approaches, assuming isotropy and stationarity. This paper verifies these assumptions by presenting a comprehensive study using a database of 3D physics-based simulated broadband ground motions for Istanbul, generated by the SPEED software. The results reveal significant event-to-event variability and nonstationary and anisotropic characteristics of spatial correlation influenced by source, path, and site effects. The development of nonstationary correlation models requires exploring influential metrics beyond spatial proximity and gaining a deep understanding of their impact, which is the focus of this study. Analysis of the spatial correlations of peak ground displacement, peak ground velocity, peak ground acceleration, and response spectral accelerations at different periods, employing both stationary and nonstationary correlation modelling methods and considering the finite fault model, indicates that the slip distribution pattern, direction and distance of station pairs relative to earthquake rupture, soil softness, and homogeneity of soil properties significantly influence the spatial correlations of near-field earthquake ground motions. Implementation of the introduced parameters in predictive spatial correlation models enhances the precision of regional seismic hazard assessments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sustainable development in urban areas requires a wide variety of current and theme-based information for efficient management and planning. In addition, researching the spatial distribution of earthquake (EQ) clusters is an important step in reducing seismic risks and EQ losses through better assessment of seismic hazards, therefore it is desirable to acquire an uncontaminated database of seismic activity. Quarry blasts (QBs) conducted over the mapped area have tainted the seismicity inventory in the northwestern region of Egypt, which is the focus of this paper. Separating these QBs from the EQs is hence preferable for accurate seismicity and risk assessments. Consequently, we present a highly effective ML model for cleaning up the seismicity database, allowing for the accurate delineation of EQ clusters using data from a single seismic station, "AYT", which is part of the Egyptian National Seismic Network. The magnitudes ≤ 3 that are very uncertain as EQs or QBs and need a significant amount of time to analyze are the primary focus of the model. In order to find the best way to classify EQs and QBs, the method looks at a number of ML models before settling on the best one using eight features. The results show that the suggested method, which uses the quadratic discrimination analysis model for discriminating, successfully separates EQs and QBs with a 99.4% success rate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract—The paper presents the results of a study showing that anomalies in the seismic regime parameters before earthquakes of various magnitudes occur in stages. The occurrence in stages means the correlation between the times of formation and development of anomalies in various seismic regime parameters. Earthquakes in regions with two general types of tectonics are selected for analysis: in the subduction zone (Kamchatka and Japan) and in the rift zone (Iceland). The selection of regions is primarily based on the availability and quality of regional seismic catalogs. GR b-value and the composite parameter known as the RTL are used as the seismic regime parameters. The detection of spatiotemporal anomalies before the selected earthquakes is based on the known "precursory patterns" of the seismic regime parameters. Comparing the durations of the detected anomalies shows that the anomalies of b-value generally occur earlier than the RTL anomalies. Possible reasons why the anomalies occur in stages are suggested. In the vicinity of the studied earthquakes, a change in the seismogenic rupture concentration parameter within the corresponding seismic cycles is also estimated. Comparing the times at which the detected seismic regime anomalies occur with the values of the seismogenic rupture concentration parameter corresponding to these times shows that the formation of seismic regime anomalies occurs at a stage when the system of seismogenic ruptures accumulated during the seismic cycle has almost reached its critical value. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The establishment of a unified earthquake catalog is a basic requirement for attaining a detailed seismological analysis and an improved seismic hazard assessment. Accordingly, the current research paper aims to present a reliable instrumental unified earthquake catalog for the northern part of Algeria. This unified catalog is compiled using regional empirical relationships derived from converting different magnitude scales to an advanced physical-based moment magnitude scale suggested in the recent literature and denoted by Mwg. The regression methodology used in this study is called the New General Orthogonal Regression approach (N.GOR), which was selected since it is the most trustworthy procedure for scaling the magnitudes to Mwg. To highlight the significance of using the N.GOR, the obtained outcomes of the scaling relations were compared with those issued from the conventional general orthogonal regression (GOR) method, which is deemed to be the most dependable methodology used worldwide for magnitude conversion problems. The unified earthquake catalog was assembled from 1954 to 2022. Reliably converting the original magnitudes into homogenized moment magnitude leads to a complete and consistent unified earthquake catalog. Indeed, the unified moment magnitude catalog presented in this paper could provide reliable data for studying earthquakes distribution and the assessment of seismic hazards in the north of Algeria. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Dhaka is one of the most populated cities in the world, which means that the occurrence of natural hazards will put the city in a critical situation. A seismic hazard analysis (SHA) is a prerequisite to reduce the risk of an earthquake event in Dhaka. This paper, focusing on the active faults of Bangladesh and the soil condition, represents the calculation of the peak ground acceleration (PGA), spectral acceleration (SA), and amplification factor. The analysis here used an updated seismic catalog (up to 2020), three source models (linear, areal, and smoothed seismicity), and eight attenuation models (selected by ranking techniques). Data from drillings are used to build the soil model, and one-dimensional frequency-domain equivalent-linear analysis is applied to calculate the amplification factor and the acceleration on the surface. The results show that the PGA changes from 0.14 to 0.19 and from 0.33 to 0.46 on bedrock for a return period of 475 and 2475 years, respectively. The worst-case scenario for Dhaka is the movement of the Jamuna Fault (Madhapur section), which can cause a PGA from 0.08 to 0.68 on bedrock. The results also suggest that the soil can amplify the acceleration up to 2.4 times. PGA on the surface for the return period of 475 years varies from 0.18 to 0.41. The design spectra and zonation maps are presented in the paper. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper makes an attempt to review historical and recent seismicity in Delhi and presents updated seismic hazard map of Delhi integrated with ward-wise classified population data. Earthquakes are not destructive unless other factors that enhance the damage prevail. Population density and types or quality of buildings in an area are two such important factors that affect the risk during any hazards, particularly an earthquake. This paper presents the details of the seismic hazard analysis for Delhi with the latest available information on earthquakes and seismic sources within 300 km radius around the city, using state-of-the-art deterministic approach. Ten different attenuation relationships developed for the active tectonic region were considered in the present study. They were ranked using log-likelihood method. Ward-wise population maps along with classified population maps were developed based on the 2011 census data. Hazard contour map and population maps are presented in this paper to revisit the seismic risk prevailing in the region. An attempt was made to overlay the hazard map with population maps showing the distribution of various classes of the population that reflects the seismic risk exposure to different wards of Delhi. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A natural disaster like an earthquake has the capability of damaging critical infrastructure systems, and valuable assets, limiting products or services movements, and in extreme conditions may cause injuries and even mortalities. The unavailability of a workforce as a response to an earthquake can directly affect the regional sector's productivity, as most business operations are labor dependent. In addition, the inherent interdependency of regional economic sectors can further delay the recovery process, This paper presents the dynamic inoperability input–output (DIIM) model and sector resilience to formulate a recovery analysis model by incorporating both the deterministic and stochastic modeling for workforce-interdependent sectors in the aftermath of an earthquake. The developed model is capable of evaluating the social and economic losses caused by workforce disruption. Moreover, a risk-based framework developed for the guidance of policymakers is to manage and control the adverse effects of the earthquake on the disrupted region. This paper identifies and prioritizes critical industry sectors based on two metrics i.e., inoperability and economic loss. Inoperability levels describe the percentage variation between the maximum production of the sector to the reduced production level, while economic loss is the quantified monetary value associated with the reduced level of sector output. The main contribution of this work focuses on the modeling of uncertainty caused by new disruption to the interconnected sectors within a recovery horizon of the initial outbreak of the disaster using a dynamic model for the disrupted region. This model is developed and applied to the regional sectors of Pakistan for an earthquake disaster but can be generalized to other regions and other disaster scenarios as well. Finally, the purpose of presenting different earthquake intensity scenarios is to validate the effective use of risk and uncertainty analysis in modeling the inoperability and economic loss behaviors because of time-varying perturbations and their related ripple effects on interdependent economic sectors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The Bangkok Basin has been known from non-instrumental observations of the local population to be subject to ground motion amplification due to the deep alluvial sediments and basin geometry. This study analyzes available seismic data to confirm that basin effects are significant in the Bangkok Basin. The paper contributes to the evaluation of basin effects by characterizing the engineering ground motion parameters and HVSR curves for the Bangkok basin which produce lengthening of ground motion duration with respect to nearby rock sites, albeit with very low ground motions. For this purpose, we analyzed ground motion records from seismic stations located within the Bangkok alluvial basin from 2007 to 2021. Recorded peak horizontal ground acceleration (PGA) for seismic stations inside the basin always exceeded 1 cm/s2 during eight earthquakes with Mw ≥ 5.5. Of these, two were intraslab events and six were shallow crustal earthquakes. These recorded ground motions shook high-rise buildings in Bangkok even though their epicentral distance exceeded 600 km. Methods: Several time and frequency domain analyses (such as analysis of residual, HVSR, Hodogram plots, etc.) are used on the ground motion records in the Bangkok basin to determine the frequency content of recorded ground motion and to demonstrate the significance of surface waves induced by the deep basin in altering the engineering ground motion amplitudes. In addition, centerless circular array microtremor analysis is used to determine the depth of sedimentary basin to the bedrock. Results: Based on comparisons from those stations located outside the Bangkok basin, we observed the capability of alluvial deposits in the Bangkok basin to amplify ground motion records by about 3 times. We observed that there is a unique site amplification effect between 0.3 and 0.1 Hz due to local surface waves and other moderate amplifications between 2 and 0.5 Hz due to a soft layer like other deep alluvial basins in other metropolitan areas. Conclusion: We noticed that there is a unique site amplification effect between 0.1 and 0.3 Hz and smaller peaks around 2 and 0.5 Hz consistent with expectations for site amplification effects associated with deep basins. Moreover, we noticed the presence of low frequencies content of the surface wave generated within the basin which deserved further studies using the 2D/3D ground motion modelling through basin topography and velocity models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Because of the scarcity of recorded seismic ground motions from Vrancea intermediate-depth source that can be used in designing a structure, engineers are bound to use scaled, artificial, or simulated accelerograms. Out of these options, the first two might incompletely account for the phenomena that may appear. Although complicated, simulated accelerograms provide one of the best options for defining the seismic demand in engineering design, but further research is needed to adapt the simulation methods to the source, path, and site-specific characteristics. As some parameters used in simulations were not addressed yet specifically for the Vrancea-intermediate seismic source, the specific path duration is investigated in this paper. Using a database with the recorded ground motions from March 4, 1977, August 30, 1986, May 30 and May 31, 1990, October 27, 2004 Vrancea earthquakes (the only five recorded earthquakes with moment magnitudes at least equal to 6), the path and magnitude dependent duration specific to Vrancea intermediate-depth seismic source to be used in the stochastic simulation is developed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Assessment of churches based on empirical data at a territorial scale is a suitable tool to have an overview of the seismic behaviour of this peculiar structural typology and to evaluate their current state of vulnerability. Fragility and vulnerability curves are also aimed to perform the analysis of different seismic scenarios. The paper presents a detailed typological analysis of 633 single-nave churches, as a selected subset of the database previously examined by the authors, with the aim of evaluating more in detail the influence of some parameters, such as masonry typology, church dimensions and presence of the bell tower, on the vulnerability of the overall church. Then, specific analyses are carried out to assess the influence played by single mechanisms on the definition of the overall damage index, with the focus of providing qualitative evaluations and explicit vulnerability and fragility curves related to the most recurring and significant collapse mechanisms. This is an original contribution of the paper in the field of the vulnerability assessment of churches, since nowadays little information is available in the literature about the damage levels related to specific mechanisms, while most attention is still focused on global damage. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Although Myanmar is an earthquake-prone country, there has not been proposed an official national seismic hazard map. Thus, this study conducted a probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for Myanmar and some of its metropolitan areas. Performing this assessment required a set of databases that incorporates both earthquake catalogs and fault parameters. We obtained seismic parameters from the International Seismological Centre, and the fault database includes fault parameters from paper reviews and the database. Based on seismic activities, we considered three categories of seismogenic sources—active fault source, shallow area source, and subduction zone source. We evaluated seismic activity of each source based on the earthquake catalogs and fault parameters. Evaluating the ground-shaking behaviors for Myanmar requires evaluation of ground-shaking attenuation; therefore, we validated existing ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) by comparing instrumental observations and felt intensities for recent earthquakes. We then incorporated the best fitting GMPEs into our seismic hazard assessments. By incorporating the Vs30 (the average shear velocity down to 30 m depth) map from an analysis of topographic slope, we utilized site effect and assessed national probabilistic seismic hazards for Myanmar. The assessment shows highest seismic hazard levels near those faults with high slip rates, including the Sagaing Fault and along the Western Coast of Myanmar. We also assessed seismic hazard for some metropolitan cities, including Bagan, Bago, Mandalay, Sagaing, Taungoo and Yangon, in the forms of hazard curves and disaggregation by implementing detailed Vs30 maps from micro-tremor surveys. The city-scale assessments show higher hazards for sites close to an active fault or/and with a low Vs30, demonstrating the importance of investigating site conditions. The outcomes of this study will be beneficial to urban planning on a city scale and building code legislation on a national scale. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The temporal distribution of earthquakes provides important basis for earthquake prediction and seismic hazard analysis. The relatively limited records of strong earthquakes have often made it difficult to study the temporal distribution models of regional strong earthquakes. However, there are hundreds of years of complete strong earthquake records in the North China Seismic Zone, providing abundant basic data for studying temporal distribution models. Using the data of M ≥ 6.5 earthquakes in North China as inputs, this paper estimates the model parameters using the maximum likelihood method with Poisson, Gamma, Weibull, Lognormal and Brownian passage time (BPT) distributions as target models. The optimal model for describing the temporal distribution of earthquakes is determined according to Akaike information criterion (AIC),and Kolmogorov–Smirnov test (K–S test). The results show that Lognormal and BPT models perform better in describing the temporal distribution of strong earthquakes in North China. The mean recurrence periods of strong earthquakes (M ≥ 6.5) calculated based on these two models are 8.1 years and 13.2 years, respectively. In addition, we used the likelihood profile method to estimate the uncertainty of model parameters. For the BPT model, the mean and 95% confidence interval of recurrence interval μ is 13.2 (8.9–19.1) years, and the mean and 95% confidence interval of α is 1.29 (1.0–1.78). For the Lognormal model, the mean value and 95% confidence interval of v is 2.09 (1.68–2.49), the mean value exp (v) corresponding to earthquake recurrence interval is 8.1 (5.4–12.1) years. In this study, we also calculated the occurrence probability of M ≥ 6.5 earthquakes in the North China Seismic Zone in the future, and found that the probability and 95% confidence interval in the next 10 years based on the BPT model is 35.3% (26.8%-44.9%); the mean value and 95% confidence interval of earthquake occurrence probability based on the Lognormal distribution is 35.4% (22.9%-49.7%); the mean probability and 95% confidence interval based on the Poisson model is 53.1% (41.1%-64%). The results of this study may provide important reference for temporal distribution model selection and earthquake recurrence period calculation in future seismic hazard analysis in North China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper addresses how residents can safely access shelters from their buildings. Firstly, we investigated Xiaying Village, a typical community with severe buildings damage at the epicentre of the Ms5.0 magnitude earthquake in Tonghai that occurred on August 13, 2018, and found that the injured residents when escaping resulted from the damage to masonry buildings. Secondly, a probabilistic approach combining response spectrum and allowable maximum acceleration is proposed to estimate the damage risk of masonry buildings with inadequate seismic performance in old communities. Thirdly, three models are proposed to assess the risk of the escape path, which include all scenarios of the escape of residents to shelters. Finally, an accessibility analysis of the paths that residents may choose to escape to the shelter is presented. The results of the community escape case study in the Tonghai earthquake show that the probabilistic approach to estimating the escape risk is feasible, and the number of damaged buildings in the escape path dictates the accessibility of residents to the shelter. The proposed method is important for guiding old community residents to escape when a strong earthquake strikes, and it is an effective way to improve community disaster resilience. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper provides an overview and introduction to the development of non-ergodic ground-motion models, GMMs. It is intended for a reader who is familiar with the standard approach for developing ergodic GMMs. It starts with a brief summary of the development of ergodic GMMs and then describes different methods that are used in the development of non-ergodic GMMs with an emphasis on Gaussian process (GP) regression, as that is currently the method preferred by most researchers contributing to this special issue. Non-ergodic modeling requires the definition of locations for the source and site characterizing the systematic source and site effects; the non-ergodic domain is divided into cells for describing the systematic path effects. Modeling the cell-specific anelastic attenuation as a GP, and considerations on constraints for extrapolation of the non-ergodic GMMs are also discussed. An updated unifying notation for non-ergodic GMMs is also presented, which has been adopted by the authors of this issue. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The determination of seismic risk in urban settlements has received increasing attention in the scientific community during the last decades since it allows to identify the most vulnerable portions of urban areas and therefore to plan appropriate strategies for seismic risk reduction. In order to accurately evaluate the seismic risk of urban settlements it should be necessary to estimate in detail the seismic vulnerability of all the existing buildings in the considered area. This task could be very cumbersome due to both the great number of information needed to accurately characterize each building and the huge related computational effort. Several simplified methods for the assessment of the seismic vulnerability of existing buildings have been therefore presented in the literature. In order to estimate the occurrence of damage in buildings due to possible seismic phenomena, the published studies usually refer to response spectra evaluated according to seismic events expected in the territory with assumed probabilities. In the present paper seismic events are instead simulated using a modified Olami–Feder–Christensen (OFC) model, within the framework of self-organized criticality. The proposed methodology takes into account some geological parameters in the evaluation of the seismic intensities perceived by each single building, extending the approach presented in a previous study of some of the authors. Here, a large territory in the Sicilian oriental coast, the metropolitan area of Catania, which includes several urbanized zones with different features, has been considered as a new case study. Applications of the procedure are presented first with reference to seismic sequences of variable intensity, whose occurrence is rather frequent in seismic territories, showing that the damage can be progressively accumulated in the buildings and may lead to their collapse even when the intensities of each single event are moderate. Moreover, statistically significant simulations of single major seismic events, equivalent to a given sequence in terms of produced damages on buildings, are also performed. The latter match well with a novel a-priori risk index, introduced with the aim of characterizing the seismic risk of each single municipality in the considered metropolitan area. The proposed procedure can be applied to any large urbanized territory and, allowing to identify the most vulnerable areas, can represent a useful tool to prioritize the allocation of funds. This could be a novelty for risk policies in many countries in which public subsidies are currently assigned on a case-by-case basis, taking into account only hazard and vulnerability. The use of an a-priori risk index in the allocation process will allow to take into due account the relevant role of exposure. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Bucaramanga seismic nest has the highest concentration in volume of intermediate depth seismic events with light and moderate magnitudes (Mb > 4.8) worldwide. Despite the nest depth (Zhypo ≥ 100 km), these events play a crucial role in the seismic hazard assessment for several cities in northern South America (NoSAm), particularly those situated close to their epicenters. Moreover, these earthquakes are widely felt across the country, even hundreds of kilometers away from the nest. This paper assesses the performance of commonly used subduction intraslab Ground Motion Models (GMMs) in predicting the updated nest database gathered and processed by the Colombian Geological Survey. This analysis confirms the necessity of a partially non-ergodic ground motion model for estimating the spectral accelerations produced by Bucaramanga nest earthquakes in northern South America. The GMM presented herein is the first model developed specifically for seismic nests in the region and is conceived as a regionalization of the recent NGA-Sub Abrahamson and Gülerce (Earthq Spectra 38(4):2638−2681, 2022) GMM. Additionally, we provide estimates of the variance components at both the earthquake and station levels and compare the developed GMM with the spectral accelerations recorded for typical earthquakes, for the highest magnitude earthquake in the database, and for a recent Bucaramanga nest earthquake having a moment magnitude over 5. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Constructing a seismic vulnerability assessment model is crucial for emergency response and mitigating seismic risk. In the wake of increased usage of machine learning, it helps the assessment model to produce more spatial and quantitative results with higher speed, providing a global view of seismic vulnerability in large areas. This paper explores the applicability and performance of different machine learning algorithms in vulnerability assessment. Three regression algorithms of supervised learning (multiple linear regression, BP neural network and support vector machine) are adopted for testing and validation of the models. The detailed vulnerability inventories of different categories of civil structures under Ludian earthquake are compiled according to field investigation and adopted as the training set. Various kinds of damage ratio are determined to consider the different degrees of impact on civil structures under earthquake. Four aspects of factors containing structure category, topographical, seismic, comprehensive factors are selected as independent variables. It is found that the prediction error shows distinctions in different categories of civil structures irrespective of the algorithms, suggesting the necessity of considering structure category in seismic vulnerability assessment using machine learning. Nonetheless, the highest success rates are obtained using BP neural network, with an RMSE of less than 0.05. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A Mw 6.6 earthquake struck Luding county, in Sichuan province of China on September 5, 2022, causing severe damage of nearby infrastructures. The earthquake indicates an awakening of southeast branch of Xianshuihe fault since the last 1973 Mw 7.6 Luhuo earthquake in Sichuan, thus attracting attention from the public. A physics-based method, combining spectral element method (SEM) and finite element method (FEM), was presented in this paper to investigate the correlation between near-fault motions and response of a road tunnel, which has a closest distance of about 6.0 km to the fault. This method allows to incorporate the rupture details, geological irregularity, 3D velocity structure, as well as the underground tunnel. The ground motions simulated by SEM were validated by comparison to specific station records and empirical ground motion model (GMM), which were subsequently input into the tunnel to obtain its axial deformation and sectional inner forces. Parametric study on tunnel alignment was conducted, and wavelet transformation was used to extract dynamic pulses from the ground motions. The results show that the tunnel response is remarkably affected by dynamic pulse directivity, and the axial forces could be dominated by permanent fault displacement for tunnel of the strike-normal alignment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper discusses and compares two recently developed methodologies for the prediction of damage accumulation in structures subjected to multiple earthquakes within their lifetime, one based on a regression model and one based on a Markov-chain based approach. A stochastic earthquake hazard model is considered for generating sample sequences of ground motion records that are then used to estimate the probabilistic distribution of the damage accumulated during the time interval of interest using the various methodologies. A simulation-based approach provides a reference solution against which the other methodologies are compared. Besides assessing the effectiveness and accuracy of the two methodologies, some improvements of the regression model are proposed and evaluated. The comparison between the methodologies is carried out by examining a reinforced concrete (RC) bridge pier model and using the Park–Ang damage index to describe the damage accumulation. The study results demonstrate the importance of considering the possibility of occurrence of multiple shocks in estimating the life-cycle performance of structures and highlight strengths and drawbacks of the investigated methodologies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper first presents a critical review of the existing literature related to the seismic performance of river-crossing bridges considering scour effects. Two probabilistic models are proposed to answer the central research question—how to determine if a river-crossing bridge is seismic-scour critical. The two models, the mean-scour fragility analysis (MS-FA) and the total-scour demand hazard analysis (TS-DHA), produce operational analytics that enables comprehensive evaluation of seismic-scour effects. An integrated damage index is defined based on local and system-level ductility demands to accommodate a soil–foundation–structure bridge system with variable scour depths. The comprehensive numerical study illustrates that foundation scour tends to be beneficial by decreasing the probability of exceedance for minor or possibly moderate damage. Given the bridge model studied in this work, results obtained from the fragility analysis show a 2.5% decrease in the probability of exceedance of the moderate damage at the maximum considered earthquake level as scour depth (SD) increases from the levels of 10 m < SD ≤ 15 m to SD > 15 m. Also, the demand-hazard analysis illustrates the two-sided effects of foundation scour, which indicates that scour has a positive impact when the proposed damage index is smaller than 2.5 while having a detrimental effect as the damage index increases. This paper concludes with a verification of the proposed framework and remarks on choosing the proposed models in practice. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Nuclear power plants (NPP) play increasing role in power supply worldwide. To meet demands of the human society, the NPPs have to be built where the energy is required, including seismoactive regions. Therefore, the safety issues related to reliable assessment of earthquake hazard are crucial. The basic concept of seismic hazard assessment is that the seismic regime is stable, i.e. the prediction of future hazard is defined by the past observations. As a consequence, huge efforts are spent to get seismic history as long as possible. Palaeoearthquake studies can provide information on past earthquakes occurred 15,000–20,000 years before present. But for such time-intervals, the basic concept might be wrong, at least for certain regions. For example, for regions where earthquakes in the past were generated due to post-glacial processes — the geodynamic situation there today is different now. So, the time-arrow of geodynamic evolution has to be somehow incorporated in hazard assessment. In hazard assessment very rare occurrences are taken into account now: such as having 10−5 or 10−6 annual frequencies of occurrence (return period 100,000–1,000,000 years). This demands very accurate interpretation of the nature of past seismic event. In the paper, some examples are given when effects similar to earthquakes can be caused by other natural phenomena. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract—The paper presents the results of many years of research on the compilation of a consolidated, refined, unified earthquake catalog for the western sector of the Russian Arctic for the entire instrumental observation period, in particular for the period from 1908 to 2020. The catalog includes data on recent seismicity in areas previously unavailable for detailed seismic monitoring. Based on the results of the study, we were able to more accurately determine the spatial distribution of seismicity in the region and compare the instrumental data with parameters of lineament-domain-focal (LDF) models of the General Seismic Zoning maps (GSZ, from Russian term abbreviated as OSR)—OSR-97 and OSR-2016. In the western sector of the Russian Arctic, the highest seismicity is observed in the continent-ocean transition zone, in the Belyi (Kvitøya) Island, Novaya Zemlya and Severnaya Zemlya archipelagos. The very shelf of the Barents and Kara Seas is characterized by rare and scattered seismicity. The configuration, the maximum possible magnitudes, and the depths of the seismogenic layers in the LDF models of OSR-97 and OSR-2016 maps are not always consistent with the instrumental data and need a correction. The consolidated refined earthquake catalog can be used as a basis for the further research aimed at seismic hazard assessment of the territory, construction of geodynamic models, and study of the stress-strain state of the Earth's crust. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

According to theory, earthquakes may produce disturbances in surrounding areas and affect the major earthquake occurrence rate of surrounding faults. The MS 6.6 Jinghe Earthquake on 9th August, 2017 occurred in the Tienshan Seismic Belt where there is much tectonic activity and many strong earthquakes occur. The impact of this earthquake on major earthquake activity of surrounding areas is worth studying. This paper attempts to combine two models: the Brownian passage-time (BPT) model, which describes the quasi-periodic recurrence of major earthquakes, and the Coulomb Failure Stress model, which describes rock failure on faults. The amount of change in the rate of major earthquake occurrence caused by a nearby earthquake was calculated, and changes in major earthquake activity in the surrounding areas after the Jinghe Earthquake were re-estimated. There are few differences in major earthquake occurrence rate change by stress disturbances calculated with the BPT model or the Coulomb Failure Stress model. Calculation results are consistent with actual earthquake cases. The 2017 Jinghe Earthquake increased major earthquake activity on the Boluokenu Fault and Yili Basin North Fault, and the expected major earthquake recurrence times of the two faults were advanced by 11 years and 59 years, respectively. Conclusions of this paper provide a reference for time-dependent seismic hazard assessments in related areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The regional seismic risk assessment plays an important role in the disaster prevention and mitigation. The accurate time-history analysis for a region provides an important data base for regional seismic risk assessment. However, an accurate calculation method is limited, then, its accuracy still lacks validation. Meanwhile, there is also a lack of risk assessment methods and indicators applicable to the regional accurate time-history analysis, both of which hinder the seismic risk assessment. In this paper, a regional-scale time history analysis-driven method is proposed for the quantitative evaluation of regional seismic damage risk and verified with a real earthquake damage survey. First, the regional time history analysis method is introduced, including the automatic modeling, response calculating, result analysis and 3-D visualization modules. Second, a calculation method for seismic damage degrees (DD) of buildings is introduced. Subsequently, the probabilistic models of each DD under the ground motions with a specific intensity are calculated based on regional-scale nonlinear time history analysis. Next, the concept of the three-level seismic damage risk is offered, then a determining workflow of seismic damage risks is proposed based on the code-abiding three-level design requirement. Afterward, the regional seismic damage index is suggested for the quantitative evaluation of earthquake-induced damage risk. Finally, the actual seismic damage database of 192 buildings in epicenter of Ludian Earthquake is established through on-site investigations, then used to verify the regional simulation's accuracy. Consequently, it could be an aid to accurately present seismic damage distribution assessments and effectively develop seismic risk mitigation strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The track structure has an effect on the dynamic characteristics of the bridge structure, which makes the seismic response of the bridge structure complicated. In this paper, an assessment method is proposed to evaluate the seismic risk of bridge structure, including over-limit risk and over-limit scale. Based on a newly proposed simplified model with high accuracy and high computational efficiency, a total of 3000 calculation conditions are analyzed and the sample stability of response is validated to ensure the reliability of the seismic risk analysis. The seismic risks in the longitudinal direction of the track-bridge model are compared with that of the trackless model, and the influence of the constraint effect of China Railway Track System II ballastless track structure on the seismic risk of the structure is obtained. The influence of the number of spans and PGA on track constraints is also revealed. The analysis results, based on a large number of samples, show that although track constraints can reduce the seismic risk of some phenomenon, such as girders' collision, the expected enhancement of longitudinal seismic safety of the system cannot be guaranteed in general, especially when the number of spans is large. However, it is noted that the track constraint can effectively control the over-limit scale of the system, which can reduce the expected repair cost after an earthquake. Therefore, it can be considered that the positive effect of the track constraints is more significant in economy than in structural safety when the bridge is subjected to a longitudinal earthquake excitation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper explores and validates the use of ground shaking scenarios generated via 3D physics-based numerical simulations (PBS) for seismic fragility studies. The 2009 L'Aquila seismic event is selected as case-study application, given the availability of a comprehensive post-earthquake database, gathering observed seismic damages detected on several building typologies representative of the Italian built environment, and of a validated numerical model for the PBS of ground shaking scenarios. Empirical fragility curves are derived as a function of different seismic intensity measures, by taking advantage of an improved statistical technique, overcoming possible uncertainties in the resulting estimates entailed by data aggregation. PBS-based fragility functions are compared to the corresponding sets of curves relying on updated ShakeMaps. The predictive capability of the adopted simulation strategies is then verified in terms of seismic damage scenarios, by respectively coupling PBS- and ShakeMap-based fragility models with the corresponding ground shaking scenarios. Comparison of observed and predicted damage distributions highlights the suitability of PBS for region-specific seismic vulnerability and risk applications. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In May 2012, two strong earthquakes hit the northern Italy revealing the significant seismic vulnerability of precast reinforced concrete structures and causing severe damage and many collapses, and high economic losses. After the lesson learnt from these events, more reliable seismic design criteria have been established for the design of new structures and different approaches have been proposed for the seismic assessment of the existing structures. In this context, the paper presents the results of a first application of the PRESSAFE-disp method, recently proposed by the authors, allowing to define the fragility curves of precast RC buildings at various limit states, including collapse. A stock of 91 precast buildings in the industrial area of San Felice sul Panaro (Modena) was selected as a benchmark case study to verify the reliability of the method in assessing seismic damage scenarios. In particular, with reference to the 2012 seismic ground-motion, two large-scale stochastic models are outlined to predict the number of the buildings collapsed in the area. The first one is based on a Monte Carlo simulation which incorporates the evaluation of the uncertainties, while the second one is a direct simplified calculation. Comparative considerations on the outcomes of the two methods for different seismic intensities are discussed, including the directionality effect of the ground-motion. To test the soundness of the simulations, the results of the two methods are compared with the real data collected through in-situ surveys. The procedures proposed here result, on average, in good agreement with the observed damage scenario. It is worth noting that, due to the inherent simplicity of the methods, they could be implemented to perform scenario-based seismic loss assessments to estimate the financial consequences of an earthquake affecting one or more industrial areas, and to drive the decision-making process for the seismic retrofit of existing precast RC buildings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

For the first time, a numerical comparison of the General Seismic Zoning (GSZ) maps with the effect of earthquakes that actually occurred after the publication of the maps was carried out. The area of zones of expected intensity on the GSZ map is compared with the area of isoseists from actual earthquakes. It turned out that the isoseist area is on average by an order less than expected according to the GSZ. This paper describes possible reasons for such an overestimation and proposes ways to improve seismic hazard assessments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In regions that undergo low deformation rates, as is the case for metropolitan France (i.e. the part of France in Europe), the use of historical seismicity, in addition to instrumental data, is necessary when dealing with seismic hazard assessment. This paper presents the strategy adopted to develop a parametric earthquake catalogue using moment magnitude Mw, as the reference magnitude scale to cover both instrumental and historical periods for metropolitan France. Work performed within the framework of the SiHex (SIsmicité de l’HEXagone) (Cara et al. Bull Soc Géol Fr 186:3-19, 2015. doi:10.2113/qssqfbull.186.1.3) and SIGMA (SeIsmic Ground Motion Assessment; EDF-CEA-AREVA-ENEL) projects, respectively on instrumental and historical earthquakes, have been combined to produce the French seismic CATalogue, version 2017 (FCAT-17). The SiHex catalogue is composed of ~40,000 natural earthquakes, for which the hypocentral location and Mw magnitude are given. In the frame of the SIGMA research program, an integrated study has been realized on historical seismicity from intensity prediction equations (IPE) calibration in Mw detailed in Baumont et al. (submitted) companion paper to their application to earthquakes of the SISFRANCE macroseismic database (BRGM, EDF, IRSN), through a dedicated strategy developed by Traversa et al. (Bull Earthq Eng, 2017. doi:10.1007/s10518-017-0178-7) companion paper, to compute their Mw magnitude and depth. Macroseismic data and epicentral location and intensity used both in IPE calibration and inversion process, are those of SISFRANCE without any revision. The inversion process allows the main macroseismic field specificities reported by SISFRANCE to be taken into account with an exploration tree approach. It also allows capturing the epistemic uncertainties associated with macroseismic data and to IPEs selection. For events that exhibit a poorly constrained macroseismic field (mainly old, cross border or off-shore earthquakes), joint inversion of Mw and depth is not possible, and depth needs to be fixed to calculate Mw. Regional a priori depths have been defined for this purpose based on analysis of earthquakes with a well constrained macroseismic field where joint inversion of Mw and depth is possible. As a result, 27% of SISFRANCE earthquake seismological parameters have been jointly inverted and for the other 73% Mw has been calculated assuming a priori depths. The FCAT-17 catalogue is composed of the SIGMA historical parametric catalogue (magnitude range between 3.5 up to 7.0), covering from AD463 to 1965, and of the SiHex instrumental one, extending from 1965 to 2009. Historical part of the catalogue results from an automatic inversion of SISFRANCE data. A quality index is estimated for each historical earthquake according to the way the events are processed. All magnitudes are given in Mw which makes this catalogue directly usable as an input for probabilistic or deterministic seismic hazard studies. Uncertainties on magnitudes and depths are provided for historical earthquakes following calculation scheme presented in Traversa et al. (2017). Uncertainties on magnitudes for instrumental events are from Cara et al. (J Seismol 21:551-565, 2017. doi:10.1007/s10950-016-9617-1). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Seismic hazard assessment is the key tool for rational planning, safety and design of infrastructures in seismically vulnerable regions. Gujarat is the only state in peninsular India with the maximum seismic hazard of large shallow earthquakes originating from intra-plate seismicity. Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) of Gujarat is carried out in this paper. Three seismogenic sources, namely Kutch, Saurashtra and Mainland Gujarat, are considered, and seismicity parameters are estimated separately for each region taking into account the completeness of the available earthquake data. Peak ground acceleration (PGA) of the horizontal component and spectral acceleration at specific periods are considered as the intensity measures. Ground motion predictive equation chosen was reported to be based on simulated ground motions and verified against the strong motion records in the study region. Results are reported for the 17 major cities at the bedrock and also for the soil sites. Apart from hazard curves, 2475 and 475 years of return periods are considered for the PGA and uniform hazard spectra (UHS). The results are compared with the present recommendations of Indian Standards. Key observations include (1) Indian Standards underpredict PGA in the entire Gujarat when the soil sites are considered and in a few cities even at the bedrock; (2) amplification of PGA (or short period hazard) on account of soil sites should be included in the Indian Standard, which is currently absent; (3) shape of the UHS indicates that a separate amplification is required at the hyperbolic portion; and (4) ratio of 2475-475 years of PGA, which is considered 2.0 in Indian Standard, should be reduced to 1.5. Time-dependent recurrence model is also included in this paper and compared with conventional PSHA. General observations include that (1) hazard may increase significantly on account of time dependency; (2) this also influences the disaggregation and in turn the selection of ground motions; and (3) time since last earthquake significantly influences the extent of the effect of time dependency. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Quantifying the magnitude of an earthquake is very important for long-term and medium-term earthquake prediction, post-earthquake emergency rescue and seismic hazard assessment. Paleo-seismology is the investigation of past earthquakes in the geological record, in particular their location, timing and size. Uncertainties remain in the paleo-earthquake magnitudes determined by traditional surface rupture parameters, especially because most seismic events do not result in surface ruptures or are of less than 0.3 m (M = ~ 6–6.8). To address the problem of magnitude evaluation of earthquakes that did not reveal major dislocations, this paper deals with the methods used to determine the seismic shaking intensity based on the types and forms of soft-sediment deformation structures, including maximum liquefaction distance, thickness of disturbed layer, empirical formulae, and thickness of rapidly deposited sand layer. Then we discuss and analyze these methods in terms of their theoretical basis, advantages and disadvantages, accuracy, applicability and problems. We chose two case studies: first, a typical seismics-related deposit (liquefied layer and disrupted layer) represented by a seismite in the late-Pleistocene Lake Lisan section near Masada in the Dead Sea Basin; and second, the liquefied diapir triggered by an earthquake in the late-Quaternary lacustrine sediments at Luobozhai in the upper reaches of the Minjiang River, East Tibet. The five methods listed above are employed to determine earthquake magnitudes associated with the seismics-related deposit and liquefied diapir, yielding magnitudes of 5.5–6.5 and 6.0–7.0, respectively. The combination of the five methods, provided a new and relatively convenient method for determining seismic shaking, especially in lacustrine sediments. This study can serve as a valid reference for comparing methods of calculating the magnitude of a paleo-earthquake based on surface rupture parameters, and provides a better understanding of the long-term seismic activity and risk in tectonically active regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper proposes a multi-platform simulation method for the seismic performance assessment of masonry infilled reinforced concrete (RC) frames, especially for those that, due to inadequate reinforcing details, tend to undergo shear failure during an earthquake. The multi-platform method is based on a micro–macro modeling approach in which a detailed finite element model of the RC frame is incorporated with a strut model of the infill wall. It exploits the strut model to increase its computational efficiency and the finite element model based on the modified compression field theory to capture the nonlinear behaviour of the RC frame. The proposed method is validated against previously tested frames subjected to lateral loads, and its advantages over the conventional strut models are demonstrated through both quasi-static and dynamic analyses. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Assessing the actual seismic economic losses of regional building portfolios is essential to quantify the seismic resilience of urban and rural areas. Various building clusters indicate different damage levels under real earthquakes of different intensities, which directly leads to apparent anomalies in the actual economic losses of various building portfolios. This paper proposes an economic loss assessment model for large-scale regional building portfolios, considering the damage probability matrices. The traditional empirical vulnerability quantification method is optimized and updated by combining the analysis methods of probability risk, reliability, macroseismic intensity, and instrument intensity. Five typical building sample sets (total survey area: 56,937.1893 × 104 m2) of 57 typical cataclysmic earthquakes that occurred in Yunnan Province, China, from 1993 to 2022 are collected and processed, and an updated fragility dataset is established. The calculation model considering empirical structural vulnerability and economic loss quantitative parameters is innovatively developed. Combined with the quantitative approaches of the multidimensional nonlinear fitting model and the established regional empirical structural vulnerability database, the seismic loss evaluation model of large-scale regional structures is established. Ultimately, the earthquake loss point cloud and matrix of typical building portfolios in the large-scale zone are developed using cloud analysis and the proposed seismic loss evaluation model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article is devoted to evaluating destructive earthquakes (magnitude >6) of Iran and determining properties of their source parameters. First of all, a database of documented earthquakes has been prepared via reliable references and causative faults of each event have been determined. Then, geometric parameters of each fault have been presented completely. Critical parameters such as Maximum Credible Rupture, MCR, and Maximum Credible Earthquake, MCE, have been compiled based on the geometrical parameters of the earthquake faults. The calculated parameters have been compared to the maximum earthquake and the surface rupture which have been recorded for the earthquake faults. Also, the distance between the epicenter of documented earthquake events and their causative faults has been calculated (the distance was less than 20 km for 90% of the data). Then, the distance between destructive earthquakes (with the magnitude more than 6) and the nearest active fault has been calculated. If the estimated distance is less than 20 km and the mechanism of the active fault and the event are reported the same, the active fault will be introduced as a probable causative fault of that earthquake. In the process, all of the available geological, tectonic, seismotectonic maps, aerial geophysical data as well as remote sensing images have been evaluated. Based on the quality and importance of earthquake data, the events have been classified into three categories: (1) the earthquakes which have their causative faults documented, (2) the events with magnitude higher than 7, and (3) the events with the magnitude between 6 and 7. For each category, related maps and tables have been compiled and presented. Some important faults and events have been also described throughout the paper. As mentioned in this paper, these faults are likely to be in high seismic regions with potential for large-magnitude events as they are long, deep and bound sectors of the margins characterized by different deformation and coupling rates on the plate interface. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Both the April 6, 2009 L'Aquila (Italy) earthquake, and the 2010-2011 Canterbury (New Zealand) earthquake sequence provided unprecedented opportunity to enhance the understanding on earthquake performance of infrastructure systems, and to analyse still-opened issues affecting the post-earthquake assessment and management of infrastructure. This paper provides a succinct and holistic overview on the physical and functional performances of the gas, water, waste water, road and electric networks (this one to a limited extent for the L'Aquila case-study), following the moment magnitude (M) 6.3 L'Aquila earthquake, and two main events of the Canterbury earthquake sequence, namely: the M 7.1 September 4, 2010 Darfield and the M 6.2 February 22, 2011 Christchurch earthquakes. A structured format, based on internationally recognised taxonomies and damage descriptors, is introduced to present the assets and to report on the earthquake-induced physical impacts for both above-ground and underground components. Functional impacts, interdependency issues and resilience attributes observed during the emergency management and recovery phases for the same infrastructure systems are furthermore discussed in the paper. It is envisaged that the data and overview on the seismic performance and management of infrastructure systems presented in the paper can be used to test the effectiveness of existing models and to inform the development of new models for seismic risk assessment and resilience analysis. Also, the structured framework presented within this paper can form the basis for defining specific and standardised survey tools for post-earthquake assessment of infrastructure systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Seismic hazard maps from probabilistic seismic hazard analysis or PSHA collect, at different sites, the values of the (site-specific) ground motion intensity measures of interest that, taken individually, have the same exceedance return period. For large-scale analyses, a widely used intensity measure is the macroseismic (MS) intensity, that provides an assessment of the earthquake effect based on the observed consequences in the hit area. Hazard maps can be developed in terms of MS intensity, and some examples exist in this respect. In the case of Italy, the last MS hazard map is based on the same seismic source model (known as MPS04) adopted to derive the design seismic actions of the current building code, a study dating more than ten years ago. It provides results in terms of countrywide Mercalli–Cancani–Sieberg (MCS) intensity level with 475 years return period. This short paper presents and discusses MCS probabilistic seismic hazard maps for Italy based on a recent grid-seismicity source model, herein named MPS19, synthetizing the large effort of a wide scientific community. The results, which are obtained by means of classical PSHA, are given in the form of maps referring to the 475 years return period, and also others of earthquake engineering interest. Moreover, it is discussed that the return period does not univocally identifies the MS intensity because, although MS is, by definition, a discrete random variable, it is modelled, in a given earthquake, by means of a normal distribution, that is, treated as continuous. Thus, the maps of the minimum return period causing the occurrence or exceedance of different MCS intensities are also provided. Finally, the comparison between the 475 years return period hazard map presented and the one which is currently the point of reference in Italy, that is, computed using MPS04, is briefly discussed. All the computed maps are made available to the reader as supplemental material. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The seismic assessment of the vulnerability of existing public structures, especially school buildings, is a crucial issue in seismic prone countries. Recently, several national and regional programs and activities have focussed on the mitigation of Italian public buildings. They promote the scheduling of public buildings' structural safety assessment and, when needed, the design and execution of strengthening interventions. Nevertheless, the three strong earthquakes that occurred in the last decade in Italy, Abruzzo (2009), Emilia (2012), and Central Italy (2016), confirmed the vulnerability of school buildings and the social importance of their quick re-opening after a damaging earthquake. In the present paper, the activities carried out on 1514 school building structures in the aftermath of the 2016 Central Italy earthquake sequence are reported and analysed. According to survey data collected by post-earthquake usability inspections, the paper analyses the school buildings characteristics, damage level and extent to structural and non-structural components as well as the correlation between seismic intensity and observed damage. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In Europe, computation of displacement demand for seismic assessment of existing buildings is essentially based on a simplified formulation of the N2 method as prescribed by Eurocode 8 (EC8). However, a lack of accuracy of the N2 method in certain conditions has been pointed out by several studies. This paper addresses the assessment of effectiveness of the N2 method in seismic displacement demand determination in non-linear domain. The objective of this work is to investigate the accuracy of the N2 method through comparison with displacement demands computed using non-linear time-history analysis (NLTHA). Results show that the original N2 method may lead to overestimation or underestimation of displacement demand predictions. This may affect results of mechanical model-based assessment of seismic vulnerability at an urban scale. Hence, the second part of this paper addresses an improvement of the N2 method formula by empirical evaluation of NLTHA results based on EC8 ground-classes. This task is formulated as a mathematical programming problem in which coefficients are obtained by minimizing the overall discrepancy between NLTHA and modified formula results. Various settings of the mathematical programming problem have been solved using a global optimization metaheuristic. An extensive comparison between the original N2 method formulation and optimized formulae highlights benefits of the strategy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

On the basis of data obtained from China Earthquake Administration and China National Statistics Bureau, this paper focuses on the earthquake disaster loss characteristics in 31 provinces or municipalities of China from 1993 to 2016. The trends of direct economic losses, casualties and affected population are also analyzed by constructing two relative earthquake loss indexes (losses/GDP and losses/E) and employing gray correlation theory. Results show that during the 24 years, without taking Wenchuan Ms8.0 earthquake into account, the direct economic losses exhibit a significant increasing trend while losses/GDP also increases but is not significant. Meanwhile, the injuries and affected population both witness a decline trend but the fatalities show the opposite. According to the correlational degree of each year, 8 years (1995, 1996, 1998, 2003, 2008, 2010, 2013 and 2014) suffered losses of equal or above moderate grade. Regionally, the western China suffered the most accumulative direct economic losses and losses/GDP. However, the ranking results of losses/E demonstrate that the central China is the most vulnerable when confronting with the same earthquake. Specifically, Sichuan and Yunnan suffered losses of extra-large grade, Qinghai of large grade and Tibet, Xinjiang and Guangdong of moderate grade. These discoveries are helpful for earthquake mitigation and preparedness as well as earthquake loss evaluation in China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Earthquakes as a natural hazard have caused substantial economic losses and human life loss in many countries. Taiwan, which is located on the western Circum-Pacific seismic belt, encountered this problem in the form of the Meishan, Hsinchu-Taichung, and Chi-Chi earthquakes a few years ago. In this paper, the researchers propose a novel robot-event integrated system capable of doing the automated inspection and emergency response due to a significant earthquake. As the household's earthquake warning receiving device picks up an alert, its built-in wireless communications system will send a signal to the robot. The robot will then commence the inspection of the indoor area via real-time image recognition and tracking. Upon detecting fallen people, it will approach them, regulating their movements via the robot operating system monitoring interface. The robot is designed to operate in a house that remains standing with acceptable damage in which the furniture might be falling and injure the occupants after an earthquake hit. The indoor experiment was conducted to verify the robot system and operation with a designed condition such as fallen and non-fallen people as the detected object. The precision of the robot arm was tested in the case of the delivery of supplies to the fallen people while waiting for the rescuers to arrive. The tests indicated that the proposed smart robot has prospective implementation in real-world applications with more research and development. The smart robot integrated with an earthquake early warning system is a promising approach to the temporary care of people affected by earthquakes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents new materials and summarizes existing ones on archeoseismology studies of stony walls conducted in the Alabash-Konurolyong intramountain depression (southwestern Issyk-Kul Lake region, the northern Tien Shan). The remnants of a sublatitudinal stone wall north of the village of Kyoksay, the remnants of buildings on the Duvana pass, the "long" submeridional wall north of the village of Alabash, and ruins of the fortress of the same name located on the Alabash pass have been studied. The deformations allow us to proceed to quantitative characteristics of two seismic events that occurred in the 15th and 18th centuries. The significant PGV values (on average, 1–3 m/s) are in good agreement with results of an analysis of data on the strong ground motions and correspond to the nearest near-fault zone. These values, in accordance with the morphostructural and other paleoseismologic data, point to the vicinity (within the limits of a few kilometers) of the corresponding seismogenic fault generating them and to the development of thrust deformations of compression. Paleoseismologic data, in particular, the results of PGV value assessments, indicate the significantly larger seismic hazard of the southern shore of the Issyk-Kul Lake depression than is shown in the modern map of seismic hazards of Kyrgyzstan. We assess seismic intensity values for our investigated localities as I = 9.0 ± 0.5. Thus, according to preliminary paleoseismology data, the seismicity level of the southern part of the Issyk-Kul Lake basin is analogous to the seismicity of its northern part. These data can be used in reevaluating the seismic hazard of the investigated territory. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Establishment of quality seismic hazard assessment is governed by capability of an attenuation model to produce closest predictions to the actual ground motion. Therefore, a robust ground motion attenuation model must be selected to feed a logic tree. The scarcity of historical strong ground motion data hinders the development of attenuation model for the low-seismicity area such as Peninsular Malaysia. This paper aims to determine an appropriate ground motion attenuation model for Peninsular Malaysia out of 28 pre-selected ground motion attenuation models. Evaluation of pre-selected models respective to actual weak ground motion records in Peninsular Malaysia resulted from Sumatra earthquakes was conducted. A total of 327 seismic records from 44 distant subduction and strike-slip Sumatra earthquakes with moment magnitude ranging from 5.2 to 9.1 spanning in a distance range of 284-1292 km were obtained from 19 seismic stations operated by Malaysian Meteorological Department. The multi-channel analysis of surface waves was conducted on all seismic stations to characterise the sites. Based on graphs plotting and calculation of quantification measure, the best fitting model for distant subduction earthquakes is Nabilah and Balendra () with RMSE value as low as 0.182 and 0.107 for interface and intraslab events, respectively. Si and Midorikawa () and Somerville et al. () models give closest prediction to distant strike-slip earthquakes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Quantitative modelling of landslide hazard, as opposed to landslide susceptibility, as a function of the earthquake trigger is vital in understanding and assessing future potential exposure to landsliding. Logistic regression analysis is a method commonly used to assess susceptibility to landsliding; however, estimating probability of landslide hazard as a result of an earthquake trigger is rarely undertaken. This paper utilises a very detailed landslide inventory map and a comprehensive dataset on peak ground acceleration for the 1994 M6.7 Northridge earthquake event to fit a landslide hazard logistic regression model. The model demonstrates a high success rate for estimating probability of landslides as a result of earthquake shaking. Seven earthquake magnitude scenarios were simulated using the Open Source Seismic Hazard Analysis (OpenSHA) application to simulate peak ground acceleration, a covariate of landsliding, for each event. The exposure of assets such as population, housing and roads to high levels of shaking and high probabilities of landsliding was estimated for each scenario. There has been urban development in the Northridge region since 1994, leading to an increase in prospective exposure of assets to the earthquake and landslide hazards in the event of a potential future earthquake. As the earthquake scenario magnitude increases, the impact from earthquake shaking initially increases then quickly levels out, but potential losses from landslides increase at a rapid rate. The modelling approach, as well as the specific model, developed in this paper can be used to estimate landslide probabilities as a result of an earthquake event for any scenario where the peak ground acceleration variable is available. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article focuses on earthquake reconnaissance missions and their benefits to earthquake engineering. Topics discussed in the article include achievements of early missions like the 1627 Gargano earthquake in Italy, contributions of UNESCO supported missions between 1963-1980 and modern post-earthquake field investigations along with investigating teams such as the German Task Force (GTF) and the Japanese Society for Civil Engineering (JSCE).

Taking the 5.12 Wenchuan Earthquake and 4.20 Ya'an Earthquake as examples, the research's main objective was to identify the human vulnerability of the rural areas in most of the developing countries, such as China, are higher than the urban areas and should be the hot spot to be researched. By assessing the human vulnerability, this paper offers a new research perspective to analyze the differentiation in human vulnerability to earthquake hazard between rural and urban areas; the result indicates the rural areas are characterized by a rather high human sensitivity and low human exposure, and the completely opposite results are in the urban areas. The rural areas, along with the high human sensitivity, make population more vulnerable to the severe impacts of earthquake hazards. Furthermore, this paper examines the relative impact of human conditions and building conditions on the human sensitivity. The result provides an interesting conclusion that the human sensitivity of the rural areas has a significant correlation with the percentage of houses collapsed, suggesting that the percentage of house collapsed is a decisive factor causing the higher human sensitivity in the rural areas. This paper is an initial effort to quantitatively analyze the differentiation in human vulnerability to earthquake hazard between rural and urban areas, which can warrant special attention by stakeholders to reconsider current earthquake management strategies, and develop adequate contingency plans for the rural areas to address and prevent the deaths caused by the earthquake hazards. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The May 11th 2011, Lorca earthquake in Southeastern Spain was a moderate magnitude event (Mw 5.1) yet it caused nine fatalities, more than 300 injuries and more than 462 million euros in economic loses. Peak ground accelerations as well as response spectral ordinates far exceed expected values from various ground motion prediction models. In particular, spectral ordinates computed from recorded ground motions significantly exceed those in current Spanish probabilistic seismic hazard models, as well as those in the Spanish and European building codes. The objective of this paper is to assess directivity effects on ground motions recorded during the 2011 Lorca earthquake, and to evaluate the significance of these effects in earthquake resistant design on moderate seismic regions. In the first part of this paper, we study the likelihood of the presence of a directivity pulse, by conducting a comparison of different parameters of recorded ground motions to analytical pulses. In the second part, we relate the recorded ground motion and its inelastic displacement spectra to some recent statistical models that try to capture the displacement demand features of earthquakes presenting directivity-pulse characteristics. It is shown that simple analytical pulses are capable of reproducing very well pulse-type near-fault ground motions recorded during the event. It is concluded that directivity effects played a major role in the large impact caused by this relatively small event. Furthermore, directivity effects which are typically ignored, both in probabilistic seismic hazard analysis and in most building codes, may lead to important underestimations of ground motions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We assess the significance of rupture-plane uncertainty in the estimated ground-motion intensity measures (IMs) by using the centroid moment-tensor and fault-plane solutions as well as the ground-motion recordings of the 30 October 2020 Samos Earthquake. We sampled ground-motion fields using stochastically generated rupture planes by considering the uncertainties imposed from alternative fault-plane solutions to reach our objective. Our observations indicate that the compromise between rupture-plane uncertainty and variability in the predicted ground-motion IMs depends on the modeling complexity of the ground-motion predictive model (GMPM). It also depends on the spatial location of the site relative to the ruptured fault. This conclusive remark is important for modelers who perform regional or site-specific seismic hazard and risk analyses. The presented case studies are also useful for GMPM developers because the ground-motion models contain predictor parameters, the most ubiquitous one is source-to-site distance, that are affected from rupture-plane geometry. Depending on the level of model complexity, the number of predictor parameters affected from rupture-plane geometry can increase and therefore the estimated ground-motion IMs can become more prone to rupture-plane uncertainty. Confined to our case-specific observations, we intend to make some suggestions to hazard, risk, and GMPM modelers for the consideration of rupture-plane uncertainty at the end of the paper. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper considers the results of a study of modern strong earthquakes (1991 Racha, 2006 Olyutor, 2003 Altai, and 2011–2012 Tuva) according to a single methodological plan. The need for such studies is dictated by constantly increasing requirements on the accuracy of predicting hazardous natural impacts. Analysis of the seismotectonic conditions of the locations of sources of strong earthquakes made it possible to identify geological structures and thus form an idea of the morphotectonic criteria for identifying potential sources in other regions. Modern earthquakes have continued the development of different-scale tectonic structures directly expressed in the modern relief. These activated structures form regular combinations inscribed in morphostructures of different scales. The displacements during modern earthquakes continue the development of morphostructures traced throughout the Middle Pleistocene–Holocene. The size and number of morphostructures involved in seismic activation are directly related to the magnitude of an event and reflect the specific hierarchical level of seismogenesis. In order to assess the seismic hazard, it is important that the presence or absence of pronounced active faults on the surface does not directly reflect the level of seismic hazard. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]