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A reduction in the CO2 emission intensity (ton per gross domestic product) from a base year to a target year with different rates of reduction in each individual year can yield different cumulative CO2 emissions over time, which could have different effects on the climate. In this paper, an indicator is proposed to measure the extent to which the cumulative CO2 emissions are generated by a specific reduction trajectory of CO2 emission intensity, especially for emerging economies with a relatively higher economic growth rate. The proposed indicator is important for less-developed countries and regions in which economic growth is heavily reliant on energy and in which significant potential exists for improvement of energy efficiency. The indicator is applied to evaluate the CO2 emission reduction performance in China's 12th Five-Year Plan period, and the result is not encouraging, especially when the likely gap between the energy conservation goals and temperature goals is further examined. Mitigation goals should be set by considering not only the performance in the final year, but also the reduction in cumulative emissions over the evaluation period. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The international community is facing the challenge of climate change, and the rapid increase of energy consumption plays a central role in the increasing carbon dioxide emissions. With 31 provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions in mainland China, this article establishes an impact model of carbon intensity, identifies key influencing factors on carbon intensity, and quantifies the effect of primary energy consumption, coal share, economic growth and technological innovation on carbon intensity in Eastern, Central and Western China. Results show that 1% of the increase in primary energy consumption in these three areas is attributable to a 0.738%, 0.975% and 0.742% increase in carbon intensity; 1% of the decrease in coal share is attributable to a 0.346%, 0.604% and 0.508% decrease in carbon intensity; and 1% of the increase in productivity efficiency should induce a 0.926%, 1.042% and 0.851% decline in carbon intensity, respectively. The results suggest that it is critical to integrate means for energy conservation, technological and productivity efficiency innovation, and adjust energy structure measures to fully implement a carbon intensity reduction strategy for China in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]