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Accurate incidence forecasting of infectious disease is critical for early prevention and for better government strategic planning. In this paper, we present a comprehensive study of different forecasting methods based on the monthly incidence of typhoid fever. The seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model and three different models inspired by neural networks, namely, back propagation neural networks (BPNN), radial basis function neural networks (RBFNN), and Elman recurrent neural networks (ERNN) were compared. The differences as well as the advantages and disadvantages, among the SARIMA model and the neural networks were summarized and discussed. The data obtained for 2005 to 2009 and for 2010 from the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention were used as modeling and forecasting samples, respectively. The performances were evaluated based on three metrics: mean absolute error (MAE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), and mean square error (MSE). The results showed that RBFNN obtained the smallest MAE, MAPE and MSE in both the modeling and forecasting processes. The performances of the four models ranked in descending order were: RBFNN, ERNN, BPNN and the SARIMA model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Several approaches have been proposed for near real-time detection and prediction of the spread of influenza. These include search query data for influenza-related terms, which has been explored as a tool for augmenting traditional surveillance methods. In this paper, we present a method that uses Internet search query data from Baidu to model and monitor influenza activity in China. The objectives of the study are to present a comprehensive technique for: (i) keyword selection, (ii) keyword filtering, (iii) index composition and (iv) modeling and detection of influenza activity in China. Sequential time-series for the selected composite keyword index is significantly correlated with Chinese influenza case data. In addition, one-month ahead prediction of influenza cases for the first eight months of 2012 has a mean absolute percent error less than 11%. To our knowledge, this is the first study on the use of search query data from Baidu in conjunction with this approach for estimation of influenza activity in China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: China's one-child-per-couple policy, introduced in 1979, led to profound demographic changes for nearly a quarter of the world's population. Several decades later, the consequences include decreased fertility rates, population aging, decreased household sizes, changes in family structure, and imbalanced sex ratios. The epidemiology of communicable diseases may have been affected by these changes since the transmission dynamics of infectious diseases depend on demographic characteristics of the population. Of particular interest is influenza because China and Southeast Asia lie at the center of a global transmission network of influenza. Moreover, changes in household structure may affect influenza transmission. Is it possible that the pronounced demographic changes that have occurred in China have affected influenza transmission? Methods and Findings: To address this question, we developed a continuous-time, stochastic, individual-based simulation model for influenza transmission. With this model, we simulated 30 years of influenza transmission and compared influenza transmission rates in populations with and without the one-child policy control. We found that the average annual attack rate is reduced by 6.08% (SD 2.21%) in the presence of the one-child policy compared to a population in which no demographic changes occurred. There was no discernible difference in the secondary attack rate, −0.15% (SD 1.85%), between the populations with and without a one-child policy. We also forecasted influenza transmission over a ten-year time period in a population with a two-child policy under a hypothesis that a two-child-per-couple policy will be carried out in 2015, and found a negligible difference in the average annual attack rate compared to the population with the one-child policy. Conclusions: This study found that the average annual attack rate is slightly lowered in a population with a one-child policy, which may have resulted from a decrease in household size and the proportion of children in the population. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Recent genome-wide association (GWA) studies in Caucasians identified multiple single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associated with coronary artery disease (CAD). The associations of those SNPs with myocardial infarction (MI) have not been replicated in Asian populations. Among those previously identified SNPs, we selected nine (rs10953541, rs1122608, rs12190287, rs12413409, rs1412444, rs1746048, rs3798220, rs4977574, rs579459, in or near genes 7q22, LDLR, TCF21, CYP17A1, LIPA, CXCL12, LPA, CDKN2A, ABO, respectively) because of the relatively high minor allele frequencies in Chinese individuals and tested the associations of the SNPs with MI and MI related risk factors in Chinese population. Methods and Results: We conducted a case–control association study on a cohort of 2365 MI patients and 2678 unrelated controls from the Chinese population. Genotyping of 9 SNPs were performed by the TaqMan Real Time PCR method. After age, sex, and BMI adjustment, we observed the SNPs rs12190287, rs12413409, rs1412444, rs1746048 and rs4977574, were significantly associated with MI in additive models and rs12190287, rs12413409, rs4977574 were significantly associated with phenotypes of MI at the same time. We also found three SNPs rs1122608, rs3798220 and rs579459 were significantly associated with risk factors of MI, although they had no association with MI in Chinese population. Conclusion: Results of this study indicate that 5 SNPs were associated with MI and 3 SNPs were associated with associated with lipoprotein levels but not with MI in a Chinese population. The present study supports some CAD-related genes in Caucasian as important genes for MI in a Chinese population. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Limited information is available on the molecular epidemiology of GII.4 Sydney-associated diarrhea in China in the winter of 2012–13 during the global epidemic associated with the emergence of GII.4 Sydney. Methods: Fecal specimens collected from 171 diarrhea outpatients (one from each) between late October 2012 and the middle of March 2013 were examined for NoV by reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction and sequences corresponding to both the NoV partial polymerase and partial capsid regions were analyzed phylogenetically. Clinical characteristics of GII.4 Sydney cases versus other NoV-positive cases detected in a previous study were compared statistically. Results: Twenty-six (15.2%, 26/171) outpatients with diarrhea were infected with NoV. Twenty-two of the 26 (84.6%) identified NoV strains clustered into GII.4 Sydney. There was a significant difference in symptoms of fever (χ2, P<0.05 ), abdominal pain (χ2, P<0.05 ) and diarrhea frequency (Mann-Whitney U test, P<0.05) between the GII.4 Sydney case group and other NoV-positive case group. Conclusions: The new NoV variant, GII.4 Sydney, has been circulating in Beijing, China and became the predominant strain in the winter of 2012–13. GII.4 Sydney causes severe fever, abdominal pain and higher diarrhea frequency clinically compared to other NoV infections. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Peruvian scallop (Argopecten purpuratus) has been introduced to China and has successfully been hybridized with the bay scallop (A. irradians irradians). The F1 hybrids of these two scallops exhibited a large increase in production traits and some other interesting new characteristics. To understand the genetic basis of this heterosis, nuclear gene and partial mtDNA sequences, and genomic in situ hybridization (GISH) were employed to analyze the genomic organization of the hybrids. Amplification of the ribosomal DNA internal transcribed spacer (ITS) showed that the parental ITS sequences were present in all the hybrid individuals, illustrating that the hybrid offspring inherited nuclear DNA from both parents. Sequence analyses of the ITS region further confirmed that the hybrids harbored alleles from their parents; some recombinant variants were also detected, which revealed some alterations in the nuclear genetic material of the hybrids. The analysis of mitochondrial 16S rDNA showed that the hybrids possessed sequences that were identical to the 16S rDNA of the female parents, proving a matrilineal inheritance of mitochondrial genes in scallops. In addition, GISH clearly discriminated between the parental chromosomes and indicated a combination of haploid genomes of duplex parents in the hybrids. The genetic analyses in our study illustrated that the F1 hybrids inherited nuclear material from both parents and cytoplasmic genetic material maternally, and some variations occurred in the genome, which might contribute to a further understanding of crossbreeding and heterosis in scallop species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Research on hMLH1 and hMSH2 mutations tend to focus on Lynch syndrome (LS) and LS-like colorectal cancer (CRC). No studies to date have assessed the role of hMLH1 and hMSH2 genes in mass sporadic CRC (without preselection by MSI or early age of onset). We aimed to identify novel hMLH1 and hMSH2 DNA variants, to determine the mutation frequencies and sites in both sporadic and LS CRC and their relationships with clinicopathological characteristics of CRC in Northeast of China. 452 sporadic and 21 LS CRC patients were screened for germline and somatic mutations in hMLH1 and hMSH2 genes with PCR–SSCP sequencing. We identified 11 hMLH1 and seven hMSH2 DNA variants in our study cohort. Six of them were novel: four in hMLH1 gene (IVS8-16 A>T, c.644 GAT>GTT, c.1529 CAG>CGG and c.1831 ATT>TTT) and two in hMSH2 gene (−39 C>T, insertion AACAACA at c.1127 and deletion AAG at c.1129). In sporadic CRC, germline and somatic mutation frequencies of hMLH1/hMSH2 gene were 15.59% and 17.54%, respectively (p = 0.52). Germline mutations present in hMLH1 and hMSH2 genes were 5.28% and 10.78%, respectively (p<0.01). Somatic mutations in hMLH1 and hMSH2 genes were 6.73% and 11.70%, respectively (p = 0.02). In LS CRC, both germline and somatic mutation frequencies of hMLH1/hMSH2 gene were 28.57%. The most prevalent germline mutation site in hMSH2 gene was c.1168 CTT>TTT (3.90%), a polymorphism. Somatic mutation frequency of hMLH1/hMSH2 gene was significantly different in proximal, distal colon and rectal cancer (p = 0.03). Our findings elucidate the mutation spectrum and frequency of hMLH1 and hMSH2 genes in sporadic and LS CRC, and their relationships with clinicopathological characteristics of CRC. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Methylenetetrahydrofolate reductase (MTHFR) C677T, A1298C and methionine synthase reductase (MTRR) A66G polymorphisms are important genetic determinants for homocysteine (Hcy) levels, and are associated with several disorders. These polymorphisms are heterogeneously distributed worldwide. Our objective was to explore the geographical distributions of these polymorphisms in China. Methodologies: 15357 healthy adults were recruited from 10 regions. Buccal samples were collected and genomic DNA was isolated. Genotyping was performed using the fluorogenic 5′-nuclease assay. Principal Findings: The prevalence of the three polymorphisms among different populations from China varied significantly and showed apparent geographical gradients. For MTHFR C677T, the frequencies of the 677T allele and the 677TT genotype were significantly higher among northern populations and ranged from the lowest values (24.0% and 6.4%, respectively) in Hainan (southern) to the highest values (63.1% and 40.8%, respectively) in Shandong (northern). For MTHFR A1298C, the 1298C allele and the 1298CC genotype frequencies were significantly higher among southern populations and increased from low values (13.1% and 1.4%, respectively) in Shandong to high values (25.7% and 6.7%, respectively) in Hainan. For A66G, the 66G allele and the 66GG genotype frequencies increased from lower values (23.7% and 5.4%, respectively) in Shandong to higher values (29.2% and 8.6%, respectively) in Hainan. The overall frequency of the 677T allele, 677TT genotype, 1298C allele, 1298CC genotype, 66G allele and 66GG genotype in the Chinese Han population was 45.2%, 23.2%, 18.6%, 3.9%, 25.7%, and 6.6%, respectively. No gender differences were found in the prevalence of both the MTHFR C677T and MTRR A66G polymorphisms. Conclusions: This study indicates that there are marked geographical variations in the prevalence of the three polymorphisms among Chinese Han populations. Our baseline data may be useful for future researches in related fields. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]