Search

Middle and eastern routes of the South-North Water Diversion Project (SNWDP) of China, which are approximately located within the area 28°-42°N and 110°-122°E, are being constructed. This paper investigates the past climatic variations on various time scales using instrumental and proxy data. It is found that annual mean surface air temperature has increased significantly during the past 50-100 years, and winter and spring temperatures in the northern part of the region have undergone the most significant changes. A much more significant increase occurs for annual mean minimum temperature and extreme low temperature than for annual mean maximum temperature and extreme high temperature. No significant trend in annual precipitation is found for the region as a whole for the last 50 and 100 years, although obvious decadal and spatial variation is detectable. A seesaw pattern of annual and summer precipitation variability between the north and the south of the region is evident. Over the last 100 years, the Haihe River basin has witnessed a significant negative trend of annual precipitation, but no similar trend is detected for the Yangtze and Huaihe River basins. Pan evaporation has significantly decreased since the mid-1960s in the region in spite of the fact that the trend appears to have ended in the early 1990s. The negative trend of pan evaporation is very significant in the plain area between the Yangtze and Yellow Rivers. There was a notable series of dry intervals lasting decades in the north of the region. The northern drought of the past 30 years is not the most severe in view of the past 500 years; however, the southern drought during the period from the 1960s to the 1980s may have been unprecedented. The dryness-wetness index (DWI) shows significant oscillations with periodicities of 9.5 and 20 years in the south and 10.5 and 25 years in the north. Longer periodicities in the DWI series include 160-170- and 70-80-yr oscillations in the north, and 100-150-yr oscillations in the south. The observed climate change could have implications for the construction and management of the SNWDP. The official approval and start of the hydro project was catalyzed by the severe multiyear drought of 1997-2003 in the north, and the operation and management of the project in the future will also be influenced by climate change-in particular by precipitation variability. This paper provides a preliminary discussion of the potential implications of observed climate change for the SNWDP. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Vegetation around the Daihai Lake, northern China, is very sensitive to climate changes. In this paper, pollen-based quantitative climate reconstructions using three methods [weighted averaging partial least squares method (WAPLS), modern analog technique (MAT), and pollen response surface method (PRS)] were conducted to obtain robust reconstructions of Holocene climate changes in the Daihai Lake area. The result obtained by the three methods all consistently show the annual precipitation to have been 50–100 mm lower in the early Holocene, 100–200 mm higher in the Mid-Holocene, and 50–100 mm lower again in the late Holocene than at present. The WAPLS and the MAT methods also show quasi-synchronous oscillations of the mean annual temperature (Ta); 1°–2°C lower in the Early Holocene and 1°–3°C higher in the Mid-Holocene than today. The time period from 6200 to 5100 cal yr BP was the wettest and the warmest interval, with an annual precipitation (Pa) greater than 550 mm and mean annual temperature Ta higher than 6.5°C. Several cold and dry events can be identified to occur about 8200, 6000, and 4400 cal yr BP, with an annual precipitation less than 400 mm and a mean annual temperature colder than 4.5°C, respectively. The mean temperature of the warmest month (Tw) as reconstructed using both WAPLS and MAT methods was relatively stable during the Holocene, fluctuating about ±2°C relative to the present level, but the PRS method suggests more varied Tw values in both amplitude and frequency. After 1500 cal yr BP, no consistent pattern can be observed from these three different analyses, probably because of the impact of intensified human disturbances on the natural vegetation. The fluctuations of annual precipitation (Pa) correspond to that observed in Dongge Cave in southern China. The differences might be linked to Indian monsoon and East Asia monsoon climates or caused by the different degree of dating precision, different temporal resolution, and different sensitive response of climate proxies to the climate variations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: This paper introduces a new model for regional climate simulation-Star model, and explains the scheme, the usage and the application of the Star model. Taking the “Temperature of 2m” and “Precipitation” as the characteristic variables of climate, the model is calculated and tested by taking Huailai climate station of China as practical example. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

An overview of basic research on climate change in recent years in China is presented. In the past 100 years in China, average annual mean surface air temperature (SAT) has increased at a rate ranging from 0.03°C (10 yr) to 0.12°C (10 yr). This warming is more evident in northern China and is more significant in winter and spring. In the past 50 years in China, at least 27% of the average annual warming has been caused by urbanization. Overall, no significant trends have been detected in annual and/or summer precipitation in China on a whole for the past 100 years or 50 years. Both increases and decreases in frequencies of major extreme climate events have been observed for the past 50 years. The frequencies of extreme temperature events have generally displayed a consistent pattern of change across the country, while the frequencies of extreme precipitation events have shown only regionally and seasonally significant trends. The frequency of tropical cyclone landfall decreased slightly, but the frequency of sand/dust storms decreased significantly. Proxy records indicate that the annual mean SAT in the past a few decades is the highest in the past 400-500 years in China, but it may not have exceeded the highest level of the Medieval Warm Period (1000-1300 AD). Proxy records also indicate that droughts and floods in eastern China have been characterized by continuously abnormal rainfall periods, with the frequencies of extreme droughts and floods in the 20th century most likely being near the average levels of the past 2000 years. The attribution studies suggest that increasing greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations in the atmosphere are likely to be a main factor for the observed surface warming nationwide. The Yangtze River and Huaihe River basins underwent a cooling trend in summer over the past 50 years, which might have been caused by increased aerosol concentrations and cloud cover. However, natural climate variability might have been a main driver for the mean and extreme precipitation variations observed over the past century. Climate models generally perform well in simulating the variations of annual mean SAT in China. They have also been used to project future changes in SAT under varied GHG emission scenarios. Large uncertainties have remained in these model-based projections, however, especially for the projected trends of regional precipitation and extreme climate events. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To understand agro-climatic suitability for spring soybean growth in north China, an integrated crop-response-function method was developed. This method includes crop-response functions for temperature, precipitation, and sunshine and is assessed by a weighting method based on the coefficient of determination. The results show that the most suitable area (S1) for spring soybean growth occupied approximately 21.35%% of the total area of north China. Among three types of spring soybeans of early maturity, middle maturity, and late maturity, middle maturity was the most suitable variety to grow in the study area, covering nearly 1.133 ×× 106 km2 or about 99.75%% of the total area of S1. As a result of this study, the authors suggest that breeders pay more attention to middle-maturity cultivars in north China. The findings from this study may provide useful information for policy makers issuing guidelines for agricultural production. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The time-frequency characteristics of the variations of temperature and precipitation over the city of Changchun in northeast China and their associations with large-scale atmospheric and oceanic conditions are analyzed. It is found that the variations of the regional climate are characterized by strong semiannual signals. For precipitation, the amplitude of semiannual signal is about half of that of the annual cycle. The relationships of the Changchun temperature and precipitation with local winds and large-scale patterns of atmospheric circulation and sea surface temperature are also strongest on annual and semiannual time scales. These strong semiannual signals are potentially helpful for improving the prediction of the regional climate. On the annual time scale, the northeast China climate is affected by both the thermal contrast between the Asian continent and the tropical Indo-Pacific Oceans and that between the continent and the extratropical North Pacific. These effects are manifested by the cyclonic (anticyclonic) pattern over the Asian continent (North Pacific) and the strong southerly flow over East Asia and northwestern Pacific associated with increases in temperature and precipitation. On the semiannual time scale, the northeast China climate is mainly related to the large-scale circulation pattern centered over the North Pacific, with its western portion over northeast China, North and South Korea, and Japan. While temperature signals are related to extratropical atmospheric process more apparently, both extratropical and tropical influences are seen in the semiannual variation of precipitation. There exist strong relationships between Changchun temperature and precipitation and the North Pacific Oscillation (NPO) in the frequency band up to 7 months. Temperature increases and precipitation decreases when NPO is positive. The relationships were weak before 1980 but became stronger afterward, associated with the strengthening of the East Asian trough. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]