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Seasonal precipitation and temperature predictions with global climate models that are developed based on the ocean–atmosphere interactions, contribute to the water resources management and hazard mitigation. To date, multi-model ensemble seasonal climate prediction systems, such as North American multi-model ensemble (NMME), are an effective way to provide useful forecast information a few months ahead especially over regions with strong ocean–atmosphere coupling. Previous studies have evaluated the skill of NMME hindcasts worldwide, however, whether the NMME real-time forecasts perform as well as the hindcasts and how the decadal variability in ocean-atmospheric teleconnections affect the prediction skill remain unclear. In this paper, based on precipitation and temperature datasets from nine models of NMME, the evaluation of forecast skills during hindcast (1982–2010) and real-time forecast (2011–2020) periods is carried out in the Yangtze River basin over China. Results show that although selecting an appropriate time frame for the calculation of climatology can reduce errors of real-time prediction, but the real-time prediction skills are lower than hindcast skills in the Yangtze River basin, with anomaly correlation decreased by 14–51% (38–75%) and error increased by 30–31% (51–55%) for seasonal precipitation (temperature) predictions up to the sixth lead-season, and the skill decrease is larger at longer leads. The failure in representing the decadal variations of ocean-atmospheric teleconnection (especially the association with Indian Ocean surface temperature) during the real-time forecast period can partly explain the decline in the prediction skills. Our findings suggest that a better grasp of decadal variability is needed to improve the real-time climate predictions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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Concurrent compound dry and hot events (CDHEs) amplified more damange on the ecosystems and human society than individual extremes. Under climate change, compound dry and hot events become more frequent on a global scale. This paper proposes a mathematical method to quantitatively attribute changes of CDHEs to changes of precipitation, change in temperature and change in the dependence between precipitation and temperature. The attribution is achieved by formulating the total differential equation of the return period of CDHEs among Meta-gaussian model. A case study of China is devised based on monthly precipitation and temperature data during the period from 1921 to 2020 for 80 major river basins. It is found that temperature is the main driving factor of increases in CDHEs for 49 major river basins in China, except for the upper and middle reaches of the Yangtze River. In West China, precipitation changes drove the increase in CDHEs in 18 river basins (23%), particularly in parts of North Xinjiang, Qinghai and Gansu. On the other hand, dependence between precipitation and temperature dominated changes of CDHEs in 13 river basins (16%) of China with other factors, including parts of South China, East China and Northwestern China. Furthermore, changes in both the mean and spread of precipitation and temperature can also contribute to changes in CDHEs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to examine the status of the supply reliability of groundwater irrigation, and discuss how it is affected by climate change and tubewell density in rural China.Design/methodology/approach This study is based on a nine-province village survey and secondary climate data. A Tobit model (or censored regression model) was used to estimate the determinants of supply reliability of groundwater irrigation.Findings Results show that the supply reliability of groundwater irrigation was 89 percent on average in the past three years. The non-linear relationship in the econometric results revealed that the 30-year annual temperature significantly influenced the supply reliability of groundwater irrigation. When the temperature rises above the turning point (6.30°C), it shifts from a positive to a negative relationship with the supply reliability of groundwater irrigation. The 30-year annual temperature in eight of the nine provinces (i.e. except for Jilin Province) was higher than the turning point. If the temperature increases by 20°C in the future, other factors being constant, the supply reliability of groundwater irrigation will decline by 20 percent. However, if precipitation increases by 10 percent, the supply reliability of groundwater irrigation could improve by 3 percent, while reducing precipitation by 10 percent will lower the supply reliability of groundwater irrigation by 3 percent. Increasing the density of tubewells considerably improves the supply reliability of groundwater irrigation. However, although increasing the density of tubewells may yield enough groundwater for irrigation, this one-sided approach raises sustainability concerns.Research limitations/implications Although increasing the density of tubewells may ensure that enough groundwater is available for irrigation, such a conclusion is one sided, and sustainability concerns should be raised in assessing this method of creating supply reliability.Originality/value This paper improves the understanding of the impact of climate variables on agriculture irrigation and water supply reliability in the micro scale, and provides a scientific basis for relevant policy making. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

China's Yellow River Basin (YRB) is sensitive to climate change due to its delicate ecosystem and complex geography. Water scarcity, soil erosion, and desertification are major challenges. To mitigate the YRB's ecological difficulties, climate change must be predicted. Based on the analysis of the evolution features of hydro-meteorological elements, the CMIP6 climate model dataset with Delta downscaling and the Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) is utilized to quantitatively explore the future variations in precipitation and temperature in the YRB. The following results are drawn: The spatial resolution of the CMIP6 climate model is less than 0.5° × 0.5° (i.e., about 55 km × 55 km), which is improved to 1 km × 1 km by the downscaling of Delta and has outstanding applicability to precipitation and temperature in the YRB. The most accurate models for monthly mean temperature are CESM2-WACCM, NorESM2-LM, and ACCESS-CM2, and for precipitation are ACCESS-ESM1-5, CESM2-WACCM, and IPSL-CM6A-LR. Between 2023 and 2100, annual precipitation increases by 6.89, 5.31, 7.02, and 10.18 mm/10a under the ssp126, ssp245, ssp370, and ssp585 climate scenarios, respectively, with considerable variability in precipitation in the YRB. The annual temperature shows a significant upward trend, and the change rates under the different climate scenarios are, respectively, 0.1 °C/10a, 0.3 °C/10a, 0.5 °C/10a, and 0.7 °C/10a. The increase is positively correlated with emission intensity. Based on the EOF analysis, temperature and precipitation mainly exhibit a consistent regional trend from 2023 to 2100, with the primary modal EOF1 of precipitation for each scenario exhibiting a clear spatial distribution in the southeast–northwest. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we evaluate a 48‐member multiphysics ensemble using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model for the JJA extreme precipitation and temperature in 2003 over the CORDEX‐EA‐II domain. The simulated precipitation and temperature are reasonable in the subregions controlled by a large‐scale circulation, yet the biases for both precipitation and temperature are evident over the subregions where the effects of mesoscale processes are important. The performance of various combinations of WRF physical schemes for simulating the JJA precipitation is dependent on the region. Meanwhile, the cumulus and microphysical schemes have substantial influences on the simulation of precipitation, and the land surface models and cumulus schemes play crucial roles in the surface temperature. Our analysis shows that the combination of Noah for the land surface process, Lin for the microphysics, G3D for the cumulus parameterization, and CAM for the radiation scheme can provide the most reliable reproduction of both precipitation and temperature extremes over China. Ensemble analysis shows that the simulated climate extremes are usually accompanied by a large ensemble spread, implying sensitivities to the model physical processes in some subregions. The simulated wind fields at low‐to‐middle atmospheric levels display responses to the options of the land surface models and cumulus schemes. The essential impact of the land–atmospheric interaction on simulating the extremes can be largely attributed to the active convective processes. WRF has difficulties in reproducing the observed temporal evolution of the rainfall process, which consists of continuous large rainfall episodes in the observation data set during the simulation period. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since climatic condition is the important foundation for human subsistence and development and the key factor in sustainable development of economy and society, climate change has been a global issue attracting great attentions of politicians, scientists, governments, and the public alike throughout the world. Existing climate regionalization in China aims to characterize the regional differences in climate based on years of the mean value of different climate indexes. However, with the accelerating climate change nowadays, existing climate regionalization cannot represent the regional difference of climate change, nor can it reflect the disasters and environmental risks incurred from climate changes. This paper utilizes the tendency value and fluctuation value of temperature and precipitation from 1961 to 2010 to identify the climate change quantitatively, and completes the climate change regionalization in China (1961-2010) with county administrative regionalization as the unit in combination with China's terrain feature. Level-I regionalization divides China's climate change (1961-2010) into five tendency zones based on the tendency of temperature and precipitation, which are respectively Northeast China-North China warm-dry trend zone, East China-Central China wet-warm trend zone, Southwest China-South China dry-warm trend zone, Southeast Tibet-Southwest China wet-warm trend zone, and Northwest China-Qinghai-Tibet Plateau warm-wet trend zone; level-II regionalization refers to fourteen fluctuation regions based on level-I regionalization according to the fluctuation of temperature and precipitation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding runoff dynamics is vital for effective water management in climate-affected areas. This study focuses on the Dayekou basin in China's Qilian Mountains, known for their high climate variability. Using 25 years of data (1994–2018) on river runoff, precipitation, and temperature, statistical methods were applied to explore the annual variations and climate change impacts on these parameters. Results reveal a significant variability in the river runoff (132.27 to 225.03 mm), precipitation (340.19 to 433.29 mm), and average temperature (1.38 to 2.08 °C) over the period. Decadal rising rates average 17 mm for runoff, 17 mm for precipitation, and 0.25 °C for temperature, with the peak precipitation and runoff occurring in 1998–2000, 2008, and 2016. The annual runoff distribution also exhibited a unimodal pattern, peaking at 39.68 mm in July. The cumulative runoff during low periods constituted only 13.84% of the annual total, concentrated in the second half of the year, particularly during the June-October flood season. The correlation analysis underscored a strong relationship between river runoff and precipitation (correlation coefficient > 0.80), while the temperature correlation was weaker (correlation coefficient < 0.80). This 25-year analysis provides valuable insights into runoff variation, elucidating the interconnected effects of temperature and precipitation in the Dayekou basin, with substantial implications for sustainable development amid climate challenges. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Organic fertilizer is utilized to improve the organic carbon levels in arable soils, which is helpful for soil quality improvement and crop yield increase. However, the after-effect of organic fertilizer varies among regions with different temperature and precipitation conditions, and the extent of the impact remains unknown. This study aimed to investigate the impact of varying temperature and rainfall conditions on the accumulation of soil organic carbon after organic fertilizer application. A meta-analysis of 168 peer-reviewed studies published between 2005 and 2022 involving a total of 464 trials was conducted. The following was discovered: (1) In the major grain-producing areas of China, there was a significant positive correlation (p < 0.01) between latitude and soil organic carbon content. Meanwhile, temperature and precipitation had a significant negative correlation (p < 0.01) with soil organic carbon content. (2) The increase in temperature inhibited the increase in soil organic carbon storage. The improvement effect of organic fertilizer application in the low-temperature areas was significantly increased by 60.93% compared with the mid-temperature areas, and by 69.85% compared with the high-temperature areas. The average annual precipitation affected the after-effect of organic fertilizer as follows: 400–800 mm > 400 mm > more than 800 mm. (3) The influence of climatic conditions on the after-effect of organic fertilizer was more significant depending on the specific tillage practice. To increase organic fertilizer use efficiency and eliminate greenhouse gas emissions, liquid organic fertilizers with abundant trace nutrients and amino acids, which take advantage of releasing nutrients more swiftly and have a better fertilization effect, could be an alternative to traditional organic fertilizers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Oscillations in global modes of variability (MoVs) form global teleconnections that affect regional climate variability and modify the potential for severe and damaging weather conditions. Understanding the link between certain MoVs and regional climate can improve the ability to more accurately predict environmental conditions that impact human life and health. In this study, we explore the connection between different MoVs, including the Arctic oscillation (AO), Eurasian teleconnection, Indian Ocean dipole (IOD), North Atlantic oscillation (NAO), and El Niño southern oscillation (Nino34), with winter and summer climates in the High Mountain Asia (HMA) region, including geopotential height at 250 hPa (z250), 2 m air temperature (T2M), total precipitation (PRECTOT), and fractional snow cover area (fSCA). Relationships are explored for the same monthly period between the MoVs and the climate variables, and a lagged correlation analysis is used to investigate whether any relationship exists at different time lags. We find that T2M has a negative correlation with the Eurasian teleconnection in the Inner Tibetan Plateau and central China in both winter and summer and a positive correlation in western China in summer. PRECTOT has a positive correlation with all MoVs in most regions in winter, especially with the IOD, and a negative correlation in summer, especially with the Eurasian teleconnection. Snow cover in winter is positively correlated with most indices throughout many regions in HMA, likely due to wintertime precipitation also being positively correlated with most indices. Generally, the AO and NAO show similar correlation patterns with all climate variables, especially in the winter, possibly due to their oscillations being so similar. Furthermore, the AO and NAO are shown to be less significant in explaining the variation in HMA climate compared to other MoVs such as the Eurasian teleconnection. Overall, our results identify different time windows and specific regions within HMA that exhibit high correlations between climate and MoVs, which might offer additional predictability of the MoVs as well as of climate and weather patterns in HMA and throughout the globe. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Middle and eastern routes of the South-North Water Diversion Project (SNWDP) of China, which are approximately located within the area 28°-42°N and 110°-122°E, are being constructed. This paper investigates the past climatic variations on various time scales using instrumental and proxy data. It is found that annual mean surface air temperature has increased significantly during the past 50-100 years, and winter and spring temperatures in the northern part of the region have undergone the most significant changes. A much more significant increase occurs for annual mean minimum temperature and extreme low temperature than for annual mean maximum temperature and extreme high temperature. No significant trend in annual precipitation is found for the region as a whole for the last 50 and 100 years, although obvious decadal and spatial variation is detectable. A seesaw pattern of annual and summer precipitation variability between the north and the south of the region is evident. Over the last 100 years, the Haihe River basin has witnessed a significant negative trend of annual precipitation, but no similar trend is detected for the Yangtze and Huaihe River basins. Pan evaporation has significantly decreased since the mid-1960s in the region in spite of the fact that the trend appears to have ended in the early 1990s. The negative trend of pan evaporation is very significant in the plain area between the Yangtze and Yellow Rivers. There was a notable series of dry intervals lasting decades in the north of the region. The northern drought of the past 30 years is not the most severe in view of the past 500 years; however, the southern drought during the period from the 1960s to the 1980s may have been unprecedented. The dryness-wetness index (DWI) shows significant oscillations with periodicities of 9.5 and 20 years in the south and 10.5 and 25 years in the north. Longer periodicities in the DWI series include 160-170- and 70-80-yr oscillations in the north, and 100-150-yr oscillations in the south. The observed climate change could have implications for the construction and management of the SNWDP. The official approval and start of the hydro project was catalyzed by the severe multiyear drought of 1997-2003 in the north, and the operation and management of the project in the future will also be influenced by climate change-in particular by precipitation variability. This paper provides a preliminary discussion of the potential implications of observed climate change for the SNWDP. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The allocation of plant biomass above and below ground reflects their strategic resource utilization, crucial for understanding terrestrial carbon flux dynamics. In our comprehensive study, we analyzed biomass distribution patterns in 580 broadleaved and 345 coniferous forests across China from 2005 to 2020, aiming to discern spatial patterns and key drivers of belowground biomass proportion (BGBP) in these ecosystems. Our research revealed a consistent trend: BGBP decreases from northwest to southeast in both forest types. Importantly, coniferous forests exhibited significantly higher BGBP compared to broadleaved forests (p < 0.001). While precipitation and soil nutrients primarily influenced biomass allocation in broadleaved forests, temperature and soil composition played a pivotal role in coniferous forests. Surprisingly, leaf traits had a negligible impact on BGBP (p > 0.05). Climatic factors, such as temperature and rainfall, influenced biomass partitioning in both strata by altering soil nutrients, particularly soil pH. These findings provide valuable insights into understanding carbon sequestration dynamics in forest ecosystems and improving predictions of the future trajectory of this critical carbon cycle component. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change have a profound impact on the production and life of the people in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region. Precipitation and temperature are regarded as two basic components of climate. This study investigated the spatial and temporal characteristics of precipitation and temperature over the region from 1960 to 2013. Different methods were used to analyze temporal variation and the results are mutually verified. Wavelet analysis was adopted to analyze the abrupt changes of precipitation and temperature. Empirical orthogonal function decomposition method was utilized to analyze the spatial distribution of temperature and precipitation. The study yielded three major findings: First, the inter-annual decrease and increase of precipitation appeared alternately in the region. Temperature was rising significantly in the last 50 years, apart from a slow reduction in the late 1970s. Second, the spatial distribution characteristics of precipitation vary due to the distance from the ocean. The increasing trend of temperature in Beijing-centered region was more obvious than that in areas away from the sea. Third, precipitation and temperature show strong correlations in change. When temperature increased, the rainfall decreased. What is more, when the temperature mutated, the precipitation also changed rapidly. The results can guide local agriculture production and provide reference for the further study of climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, correlation between modern leaf physiognomy and climate in China are examined, to optimize the use of leaf characters as a palaeoclimate proxy. A large dataset was compiled, recording the distribution of leaf physiognomic characters among 3166 native dicot trees species across 732 calibration grids on a county level. Grids span a range of ecological environments (tropical rainforests to alpine shrubs) across humid areas. Thirteen climatic parameters were included for each grid and 22 leaf physiognomic characters were scored for each tree species. The correlation between leaf physiognomic characters and climatic parameters were calculated based on single linear regressions (SLR) and multiple linear regressions (MLR). Results indicate clear spatial distribution patterns, linked to latitude, exist for all leaf characters, with temperature (Coldest Month Mean Temperature, CMMT) and precipitation (Growing Season Precipitation, GSP) being the main climate controls. Moreover, because leaf characters are more closely correlated with Precipitation during the Three Wettest Consecutive Months (P3WET), rather than with Precipitation during the Three Driest Consecutive Months (P3DRY), seasonal variations in rainfall associated with the Asian Monsoon might especially influence leaf physiognomic characters. Closer correlations between leaf physiognomy and climate are seen using MLR compared with SLR; therefore Mean Annual Temperature (MAT) and Mean Annual Precipitation (MAP) based on MLR equations provide the most promising basis for palaeoclimate reconstructions in China. • Spatial distribution of 21 leaf physiognomic characters in China is established. • Relationships between leaf physiognomic characters and climatic parameters are established. • The seasonal variations in rainfall under the Asian monsoon climate shapes leaf physiognomic characters. • Paleoclimate can be reconstructed based on such large-scale modern dataset. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Vegetation around the Daihai Lake, northern China, is very sensitive to climate changes. In this paper, pollen-based quantitative climate reconstructions using three methods [weighted averaging partial least squares method (WAPLS), modern analog technique (MAT), and pollen response surface method (PRS)] were conducted to obtain robust reconstructions of Holocene climate changes in the Daihai Lake area. The result obtained by the three methods all consistently show the annual precipitation to have been 50–100 mm lower in the early Holocene, 100–200 mm higher in the Mid-Holocene, and 50–100 mm lower again in the late Holocene than at present. The WAPLS and the MAT methods also show quasi-synchronous oscillations of the mean annual temperature (Ta); 1°–2°C lower in the Early Holocene and 1°–3°C higher in the Mid-Holocene than today. The time period from 6200 to 5100 cal yr BP was the wettest and the warmest interval, with an annual precipitation (Pa) greater than 550 mm and mean annual temperature Ta higher than 6.5°C. Several cold and dry events can be identified to occur about 8200, 6000, and 4400 cal yr BP, with an annual precipitation less than 400 mm and a mean annual temperature colder than 4.5°C, respectively. The mean temperature of the warmest month (Tw) as reconstructed using both WAPLS and MAT methods was relatively stable during the Holocene, fluctuating about ±2°C relative to the present level, but the PRS method suggests more varied Tw values in both amplitude and frequency. After 1500 cal yr BP, no consistent pattern can be observed from these three different analyses, probably because of the impact of intensified human disturbances on the natural vegetation. The fluctuations of annual precipitation (Pa) correspond to that observed in Dongge Cave in southern China. The differences might be linked to Indian monsoon and East Asia monsoon climates or caused by the different degree of dating precision, different temporal resolution, and different sensitive response of climate proxies to the climate variations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Some previous studies have shown that drying-up of the lower Yellow River resulted from decreasing precipitation and excessive industrial and agricultural consumption of water from the middle and downstream regions of the Yellow River. On the basis of average air temperature, precipitation, and pan evaporation data from nearly 80 gauging stations in the Yellow River basin, the monotonic trends of major climate variables over the past several decades are analysed. The analysis was mainly made for 12 months and the annual means. The isograms for annual and typical months are given in the paper. The result shows that the average temperature in the study area exhibits an increasing trend, mainly because of the increase of temperature in December, January and February. The largest trend is shown in December and the smallest is in August. There are 65 of 77 stations exhibiting a downward trend for annual precipitation. In all seasons except summer, there is a similar trend in the upstream region of the Yellow River, south of latitude 35°N. It is interesting to note that the pan evaporation has decreased in most areas of the Yellow River basin during the past several decades. April and July showed the greatest magnitude of slope, and the area from Sanmenxia to Huayuankou as well as the Yiluo River basin exhibited the strongest declining trend. The conclusion is that the decreasing pan evaporation results from complex changes of air temperature, relative humidity, solar radiation, and wind speed, and both climate change and human activities have affected the flow regime of the Yellow River during the past several decades. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents a large data set on carbon isotope composition (δ13C) of modern soils which were collected under the main vegetation communities along an altitude of 1250–5500 m above sea level in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. The δ13C values of 198 samples range from -28.6 to -15.1‰ versus PDB and exhibit a clean relation to different vegetation communities from forest (-25.9 ± 1.2‰) to shrub (-24.7 ± 1.4‰), steppe (-23.1 ± 1.3‰), alpine meadow (-23.6 ± 0.7‰), alpine desert steppe (-21.3 ± 1.6‰), and alpine desert (-18.9 ± 2.5‰). We attributed the observed variability in δ13C values to that the mean annual precipitation (MAP) and the mean annual temperature (MAT) are the main factors controlling the distribution of vegetation types in the Tibetan Plateau, which causes the change in carbon isotope composition of modern soils at any given altitude. The result of both linear and nonlinear regression analyses also confirms that MAP and MAT are the major factors affecting the δ13C values of surface soils. In the absence of favorable moisture and temperature conditions, low pCO2 alone is not sufficient to cause the distinct changes in carbon isotope composition of modern soils in the Tibetan Plateau. This study provides some fundamental information on the carbon isotope composition of terrestrial carbon pools and bears some practical significance for the use of carbon isotope data to document vegetation changes and environmental conditions of the high plateau in the past. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Based on monthly precipitation (P), temperature (T) data, and remote sensing images collected from March 2000 to February 2019, this article was constructed to reveal the synergistic effect between P and T for the NDVI in northern China qualitatively and quantitatively by using a one-variable linear regression, the coefficient of variation, multivariate correlation coefficients, and a geodetector. The results show that the NDVI in the study area decreased from 2000 to 2012, increased from 2013 to 2018, decreased in the west, and increased in the east of Northern China. Overall, the NDVI, P, and the average maximum temperature (Tmax) had the strongest multivariate correlations (approximately 43.4% of the total study area passed the 95% confidence level significance test), followed by the average temperature (Tave) and average minimum temperature (Tmin). The explanatory power of the synergistic effect between P and Tmax for the NDVI was the strongest, with the value of explanatory power varying from 0.41 to 0.81, followed by Tave and Tmin. Spatially, the explanatory power of the synergistic effect between P and T for the NDVI was strengthened overall in the study area from northwest to southeast. The annual change rate of the explanatory power showed that the overall explanatory power between P and T for the NDVI in the study area was weakened in the central area and strengthened in the east and the west. Specifically, the synergistic effect between P and T on the NDVI was weakened in both Shaanxi and Ningxia Huizu Zizhiqu, while the opposite occurred in Xinjiang Uygul Zizhiqu, Qinghai, and another five provinces in the eastern part of the study area. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Various climatic factors and their interactions affect China's snow depth alterations. However, a measure of the relative importance of climatic factors regarding the variance in snow depth is lacking. Here, we use a heretofore largest dataset, quality‐controlled daily observations from 1,665 meteorological stations, and statistical analyses to identify proxy drivers and their contributions regarding regional variability and trends in China's snow depth and snow depth‐climate relationships from 1951 to 2019. Results show that seasonal snow depth alterations are substantial in China and caused by various climatic drivers. In winter, observed positive trends in the northwest and northeast of China mainly respond to augmentation in solid precipitation and snow accumulation in fall. For the Tibetan Plateau, the negative snow depth anomaly seems to respond to the rising air temperature below the freezing point along with some secular changes in solid precipitation and shallower fall snowpacks. All these trends in winter snow depth over the northwest, northeast, and Tibetan Plateau of China account approximately for 30% of the total interannual variance in spring snow depth in these regions. In the milder central north and south of China, snow accumulation is not evident. Besides solid precipitation and rising air temperature below the freezing point, atmospheric humidity is also notable for its effect on the interannual variance in winter snow depth in these regions. In spring and fall, however, the negative effect of warming climate on snow depth becomes remarkably more important. It seems that about 13–33% (12–50%) of the total interannual variance in the widespread decrease (insignificant perturbation), except for some weak increases in the northeast region (decreases in the Tibetan Plateau), of China's spring (fall) snow depth are caused by the rising air temperature below the freezing point. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Due to the rapid development of China's economy, the demand for wood is steadily increasing. Eucalyptus species have been introduced in large quantities because of their fast growth, strong adaptability, and wide utility. To understand the phenological changes in introduced Eucalyptus in its new range, we carried out a field investigation to examine leaf functional and chemical defense traits of three introduced species (E. saligna, E. grandis and E. robusta) over latitudinal and altitudinal gradients in southern China. We sampled multiple stands of each species, and measured the leaf physical characteristics (e.g., leaf width, leaf thickness, and specific leaf area [SLA]), leaf nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) content, and phenolic compounds. We found that many functional traits (e.g., leaf size and thickness) decreased at lower latitudes, especially in E. grandis, possibly to reduce heat and water loss under higher temperatures. In E. grandis, we found that leaf P was lower at higher latitudes and altitude, and phenolics increased with elevation, while in E. robusta, both leaf N and P decreased with altitude. These findings suggested that both species were more conservative in resource allocation, with E. grandis possessing enhanced chemical defenses in response to the conditions experienced at higher elevations. In addition, we found the tree populations at the northern range limit of E. robusta had lower SLA, suggesting a more conservative growth strategy, In contrast, small populations in the northern part of the ranges of E. grandis had higher SLA, indicating range expansion at the edge of the species' geographic distribution. Overall, it is particularly important to consider intraspecific trait differences across wide geographic areas when studying the spread of invasive species in the new range. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The corresponding relationships between temperature, precipitation, and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon (PAH) concentration in a typical ombrotrophic peatland in Dajiuhu, Shennongjia, were quantitatively characterized by field sampling tests validated with simulation experiments. The PAH concentrations of peat cores in Dajiuhu peatland ranged from 262 to 977 ng·g−1, with a mean value of 536 ± 284 ng·g−1. PAHs were mainly composed of 2–3 ring PAHs, accounting for 31.7% ± 2.00% and 31.7% ± 5.00%, respectively. The concentration of PAHs in peat cores showed a significant decrease with increasing temperature, while the low molecular weight PAHs (LMW-PAHs) were more sensitive to temperature changes compared to the high molecular weight PAHs (HMW-PAHs). Besides, with the increase of quantity and velocity of leaching liquid, PAHs in peat were first transferred in the form of attached large-size particles and then gradually entered the aqueous phase. According to the IPCC projections of global warming, Dajiuhu peatland will release 956 ± 26.3 kg·°C−1 PAHs into gas phase during 2030–2052, and a conservative projection based on local temperature trends showed that 459 ± 12.6 kg·°C−1 PAHs will be released into gas phase by 2047 in Dajiuhu peatland. The projected release fluxes of PAHs in Dajiuhu peatland with precipitation volume and precipitation velocity are 381 ± 201 kg·100 mm−1 and 1052 ± 167 kg·min·mL−1, respectively, which are primarily from peat into particulate and aqueous phase. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Given the differences in geomorphology, climate, hydrology, and human activities in various regions, lake chemometrics may also vary. However, the spatial distribution of lake chemistry and the factors affecting such pattern are still unclear. Here, we collected data for carbon, nitrogen, and phosphorus from published literature and databases in 224 lakes and calculated the trophic status index to represent the nutrient classification state of lakes. We found that lakes with high carbon concentrations were located in the Tibet-Qinghai Limnetic Region of western China, whereas lakes with high nitrogen and phosphorus concentrations were located in the Inner Mongolia-Xinjiang Limnetic Region and Northeast Limnetic Region of northern China. Areas with larger cropland and urban residential land (such as the junction of the three lake regions, i.e., the Northeast Limnetic Region, East Limnetic Region, and Inner Mongolia-Xinjiang Limnetic Region) tended to have lakes with high nitrogen and phosphorus concentrations. Our analysis suggested that spatial distribution of carbon, nitrogen, and phosphorus concentrations reflect the effect of climate, geomorphology, and land use in each lake region and nationwide. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is a global scientific problem, and its impact on the spatiotemporal variations of precipitation has been a crucial research topic. Although previous studies have used different methods to evaluate the precipitation characteristics of the Huaihe River Basin, the time series were short and the few stations could not fully and accurately represent the precipitation characteristics. In this study, daily temperature and precipitation data were collected from 233 meteorological stations in the Huaihe River Basin from 1960–2020. The Mann–Kendall test was used to analyze the trend and significance of interannual and interseasonal scale changes in temperature and precipitation in the Basin, respectively. The correlation between temperature and precipitation was analyzed using the Pearson correlation coefficient method. The spatial distribution of the significance of temperature and precipitation changes and the spatial distribution of the correlation between temperature and precipitation in the basin were plotted. The temperature in the basin tended to increase on interannual and interseasonal scales, with more noticeable changes in spring and winter. Precipitation showed an overall decreasing trend but an increasing trend in localized areas in the south. A decreasing trend in the interseasonal variation scale was observed in spring, an increasing trend in winter, a decreasing trend in the northeastern region in summer, an increasing trend in the southwestern region, and an increasing trend in the northern and southern parts in autumn were observed. The correlation between average temperature and precipitation on interannual and interseasonal scales was analyzed using Pearson's correlation coefficient method, and the annual average temperature and annual average precipitation in the Huaihe River basin were found to be negatively correlated, except for sporadic areas that showed extremely weakly positive correlations or no correlations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: Amphibians require both terrestrial and aquatic environments to complete their life cycles. Thus, they are subject to complex selection pressures stemming from different environments, and these selection pressures are likely to vary geographically with variation in temperature and precipitation. Studies of genetic differentiation along geographical clines allow identification of footprints of these selection pressures. Location: China. Methods: To identify possible signatures of local adaptation to particular environmental conditions, we conducted a genome‐scan with 20,572 single‐nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) obtained with restriction site‐associated DNA sequencing of pooled samples from 10 Microhyla fissipes populations spanning a 1,398 km long latitudinal gradient in China. Results: The results revealed significant genetic differentiation among populations (FST =0.090). Numerous outlier SNPs associated with variation in both annual average temperature (n = 69) and precipitation (n = 248) were detected. Main conclusions: The degree and pattern of population differentiation in the SNPs supported the hypothesis that these SNPs have been subject to directional natural selection associated with temperature and precipitation and, hence, are reflective of geographically varying local adaptation. Hence, conservation and management plans for Microhyla fissipes should take into account this heterogeneity in genetic constitution in its populations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The overall goal of this study was to examine the impacts of climate change on the mean and variance of rice yields in China by using historical climate and crop data. An econometric model was established to estimate Just–Pope stochastic production functions and identify the potential impacts of climate change on the mean and variance of rice yields by type, keeping other factors constant. Based on the estimated production functions, the contribution rate of climatic factors to rice yield was then assessed by conducting the growth accounting of yields over the past 30 years. The results showed that both the mean rice yield and the yield variability were influenced by changes in the mean climate conditions and climatic variance. In the future, the impacts of climate change on rice yields will depend on local regions' present climatic conditions. The results have implications for improving the adaptation capacity of rice production. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

1. It is increasingly being recognized that tree species diversity has positive effects on forest ecosystem carbon (C) stock. However, at broad spatial scales, this relationship may depend on climate conditions and species mycorrhizal associations. 2. Here, observations from 667 forest plots in subtropical China were used to investigate the effects of species diversity, mean annual precipitation (MAP), mean annual temperature (MAT) and mycorrhizal type (arbuscular or ectomycorrhizal) on the forest C stock and its components (tree C stock, shrub layer C stock, herb layer C stock, litter layer C stock, root C stock and soil C stock). 3. We found positive effect of tree species diversity on total forest C stock. MAP had positive effects on total forest C stock and its components, while MAT had consistently negative effects on total forest C stock and most of its components. Different levels of MAP and MAT did modulate the strength of effect of species diversity on forest C stock and its components. In addition, species diversity, MAT and MAP showed a significant positive relationship with arbuscular mycorrhiza-associated tree C stock but had no or negative relationship with ectomycorrhiza-associated tree C stock. 4. Synthesis. Our results indicate that maintaining high level of species diversity may support the buffering of negative effects resulting from climate warming. Furthermore, under climate warming the specific C stock of AM trees can increase, which can potentially promote forest C stock. Taken together, our study suggests that afforestation policies should consider not only tree species diversity to increase forest C stock but also the effects of different tree mycorrhizal types. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change alters hydrological processes in cold regions. However, the mechanisms of runoff component variation remain obscure. We implemented a WEP-N model to estimate monthly runoff in the Songhua River Basin (SRB) between 1956 and 2018. All flow simulations were accurate (NSE > 0.75 and RE < 5%). The annual runoff was attenuated in 1998, and the hydrological series (1956–2018) was divided into base and change periods in that year. Relative to the BS (base scenario), annual production flow reduction was −28.2% under climate change and water use. A multifactor attribution analysis showed that climate change and water use contributed 77.0% and 23.0% to annual runoff reduction, respectively. Decreases in annual surface and base flow explained 62.1% and 35.7% of annual production flow reduction, respectively. The base flow increased by 8.5% and 6.5% during the freezing and thawing periods, respectively. Relative to the BS, groundwater recharge increased by 9.2% and 4.1% during the freezing and thawing periods, respectively, under climate change conditions. Climate change was the dominant factor attenuating production flow. The change in production flow occurred mainly during the non-freeze-thaw period. The decrease in total production flow in the SRB was caused mainly by the decrease in the surface flow, where the reduction in base flow accounted for a relatively small proportion. Production flow attenuation aggravated water shortages. The utilization rate of groundwater resources is far below the internationally recognized alarm line. Therefore, attention should be directed towards certain areas of the SRB and other regions with minimal groundwater exploitation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Drought is one of the major environmental stressors; drought is increasingly threatening the living environment of mankind. The standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) with a 12-month timescale was adopted to monitor dry–wet status over China from 1951 to 2021. The modified Mann–Kendall (MMK) and Pettitt tests were used to assess the temporal trend and nonlinear behavior of annual drought variability. The analysis focuses on the spatio-temporal structure of the dry–wet transition and its general connections with climate change processes. In addition, the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model was applied to forecast the dry–wet behavior in the next year (2022) at 160 stations, and the hotspot areas for extreme dryness–wetness in China were identified in the near term. The results indicate that the dry–wet climate in China overall exhibits interannual variability characterized by intensified drought. The climate in the Northeast China (NEC), North China (NC), Northwest China (NWC), and Southwest China (SWC) has experienced a significant (p < 0.05) drying trend; however, the dry–wet changes in the East China (EC) and South Central China (SCC) are highly spatially heterogeneous. The significant uptrend in precipitation is mainly concentrated to the west of 100° E; the rising magnitude of precipitation is higher in Eastern China near 30° N, with a changing rate of 20–40 mm/decade. Each of the sub-regions has experienced significant (p < 0.01) warming over the past 71 years. Geographically, the increase in temperature north of 30° N is noticeably higher than that south of 30° N, with trend magnitudes of 0.30–0.50 °C/decade and 0.15–0.30 °C/decade, respectively. The response of the northern part of Eastern China to the warming trend had already emerged as early as the 1980s; these responses were earlier and more intense than those south of 40° N latitude (1990s). The drying trends are statistically significant in the northern and southern regions, bounded by 30° N, with trend magnitudes of −0.30–−0.20/decade and −0.20–−0.10/decade, respectively. The northern and southwestern parts of China have experienced a significant (p < 0.05) increase in the drought level since the 1950s, which is closely related to significant warming in recent decades. This study reveals the consistency of the spatial distribution of variations in precipitation and the SPEI along 30° N latitude. A weak uptrend in the SPEI, i.e., an increase in wetness, is shown in Eastern China surrounding 30° N, with a changing rate of 0.003–0.10/decade; this is closely associated with increasing precipitation in the area. Drought forecasting indicates that recent drying areas are located in NWC, the western part of NC, the western part of SWC, and the southern part of SCC. The climate is expected to show wetting characteristics in NEC, the southeastern part of NC, and the eastern part of EC. The dry–wet conditions spanning the area between 30–40° N and 100–110° E exhibit a greater spatial variability. The region between 20–50° N and 80–105° E will continue to face intense challenges from drought in the near future. This study provides compelling evidence for the temporal variability of meteorological drought in different sub-regions of China. The findings may contribute to understanding the spatio-temporal effect of historical climate change on dry–wet variation in the region since the 1950s, particularly in the context of global warming. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyzed the data of temperature and precipitation in Turpan and Nantong, in the west and east of China, respectively, during the period of 1961 –2007 by linear groWh rate, moving average methods, Mann-Kendall nonparametric and moving Ttests. The result indicated that the annual average temperature in Turpan had a linear groWh rate of 0.42 °C/10 a, while the annual average temperature in Nantong had a linear tendency of 0.48 °C/10 a. The annual average maximum temperature in Turpan with linear groWh rate of 0.16 °C/10 a was lower than 0.56 °C/ 10 a of Nantong, and the annual average minimum temperature in Turpan with linear growh rate of 0.86 °C/10 a was higher than 0.70 °C/10 a of Nantong. The annual average temperature of Turpan increasing was 7 years earlier than Nantong. The annual average maximum temperature of Turpan increasing was 5 years later than Nantong. The annual average minimum temperature of Turpan increased as same as Nantong in 1986, but the curve showed different process completely. The abrupt change year of average temperature between Turpan and Nantong were same in 1996, and the abrupt change year of average maximum temperature of Turpan was 5 years later than Nantong. For precipitation, Turpan and Nantong had the same trend of increased and decreased. The reason of almost identical trend of temperature and precipitation between Turpan and Nantong may be urbanization and population increasing influencing climate change in a small area. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Based on the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI), a significant increase after the mid-1990s is detected in the annual number of days with drought in the zonal belt from southern Xinjiang to southern Northeast China and North China. This change features the predominant mode of the annual number of days with drought in China. Meanwhile, two significant breakpoints in 1981 and 2001 indicate a continuous increase of days with drought in the meridional belt from eastern Northwest China to eastern Southwest China. The increase in days with drought is closely related to the significant warming in the zonal belt but is attributed to both the increase of temperature and the decrease of precipitation in the meridional belt. The typical circulation patterns responsible for the increase of days with drought comprise a wave train stretching from North Atlantic to East Asia, the generally anomalous high pressure over China, the northerly anomalies prevailing over northern and central China, and the suppressed convection in most of the zonal and meridional belt. Both the AMO and the PDO after the 1980s have a close relationship with the interdecadal variation of the number of days with drought. On one hand, either a positive AMO phase or negative PDO phase motivates the typical circulation patterns favorable for the occurrence of drought. On the other hand, both the AMO and PDO affect the warming in the zonal and meridional belt, and the PDO is also closely connected with the precipitation in the meridional belt. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Historical records truthfully document human life and environment associated with climate changes. We quantify official historical records of China dating back last 2000 years to examine the disasters due to anomalous temperatures of cold or hot, irregular precipitations of wet or dry, and floods in inland/coastal or Northern/Southern areas in four seasons that possibly linked to solar activities during 1-1825 CE (Common Era). It is found that the proportion of disaster years is positively associated with the time periods, and therefore, both the cases with high and low solar activity (HSA and LSA) leading are under study. Statistical results show that extreme cold weather occurs particularly in the Winter and Spring during LSA periods. Irregularities precipitations, including heavy rain/hail/snow and severe drought are significantly frequent during LSA periods, while floods on inland and coastal river basins tend to occur more frequently in LSA and HSA periods, respectively. The disasters owing to irregularities precipitations and floods frequently happen in Summer and Autumn, which suggests that the irregular precipitations could cause the floods. All the disasters occur significantly in the Northern China, which suggests the climate boundary of the Qinling–Huaihe Line along at about 33°N being essential. In total, all the disasters due to the anomalously cold temperatures, irregular precipitations, and floods tend to occur during the LSA periods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper explored the projected changes in precipitation, maximum temperature (T max), and minimum temperature (T min) over the Yangtze River Basin (YRB) based on 23 Global climate models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6). The Empirical Quantile Mapping (EQM) approach was firstly applied to correct the biases in the GCMs. Next, the future changes were investigated by analyzing the multi-model ensemble (MME) of the bias-corrected dataset during 2025–2044 (near-term), 2045–2064 (mid-term), and 2081–2100 (long-term) periods, with reference to the baseline period 1995–2014, under three integrated scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5) of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). Results show that: (1) the biases in CMIP6 GCMs can be effectively corrected by EQM, and the MME performs better than individual models for each climatic variable. (2) Precipitation over the YRB from 2025 to 2100 is projected to increase at the rate of 9.66 mm/decade, 13.45 mm/decade, and 21.01 mm/decade under SSP1‐2.6, SSP2‐4.5, and SSP5‐8.5, respectively. In the long-term, the annual precipitation is projected to increase by 10.41%, 10.66% and 15.80%, under SSP1‐2.6, SSP2‐4.5 and SSP5‐8.5, respectively. (3) T max (T min) over the YRB is projected to increase by 0.09 (0.07) °C/decade, 0.29 (0.27) °C/decade, and 0.66 (0.64) °C/decade under SSP1‐2.6, SSP2‐4.5, and SSP5‐8.5, respectively. In the long-term, T max (T min) averaged over the YRB is projected to increase by 1.75 (1.50) °C, 2.72 (2.54) °C and 5.04 (4.85) °C under SSP1‐2.6, SSP2‐4.5 and SSP5‐8.5, respectively. (4) Uncertainties in the projected precipitation and temperature over the YRB were reduced based on MME. But further researches, such as selecting the superior models with respect to the regional climate of the YRB from the CMIP6 and using the ensemble methods that assign weight based on the performance of each model, are still needed to provide more reliable climate projections. • Projected changes were explored by 23 CMIP6 GCMs under the three SSP-RCP scenarios. • Biases in the GCMs were corrected by Empirical Quantile Mapping (EQM) method. • Multi-model ensemble (MME) was used to reduce the uncertainties. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The relationship between extreme precipitation intensity and temperature has been comprehensively studied over different regions worldwide. However, the effect of temperature on the spatiotemporal organization of precipitation, which can have a significant impact on precipitation intensity, has not been adequately studied or understood. In this study, we propose a novel approach to quantifying the spatial and temporal concentration of precipitation at the event level and study how the concentration varies with temperature. The results based on rain gauge data from 843 stations in the Ganzhou county, a humid region in south China, show that rain events tend to be more concentrated both temporally and spatially at higher temperature, and this increase in concentration qualitatively holds for events of different precipitation amounts and durations. The effects of temperature on precipitation organization in space and in time differ at high temperatures. The temporal concentration increases with temperature up to a threshold (approximately 24°C) beyond which it plateaus, whereas the spatial concentration keeps rising with temperature. More concentrated precipitation, in addition to a projected increase of extreme precipitation, would intensify flooding in a warming world, causing more detrimental effects. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It is important to understand the hydroclimate history of water‐deficient regions, such as the Alxa desert of northwest China. However, there are few high‐resolution proxy records for the hydroclimate changes over the past centuries in the Alxa desert. Fortunately, there are many tree‐ring hydroclimate reconstructions from the nearby mountains. However, the hydroclimate correlations between the Alxa desert and adjacent mountains are unclear. Here, we collected high‐quality data from 43 meteorological stations in northwest China (1960–2017). We found increasing mean temperatures in the study area, both on seasonal and annual timescales. We also found that while relative humidity had mostly decreased in the Mt. Qilian and Alxa desert, precipitation and the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) increased mostly. In the Mt. Helan and Hasi ranges, relative humidity, precipitation, and SPEI all showed decreasing trends. Empirical orthogonal function analysis indicated that precipitation, relative humidity, and SPEI in the Mt. Qilian were similar to the corresponding conditions in the central and western Alxa desert. Hydroclimate conditions in the Mt. Helan and Hasi ranges were correlated with data from the eastern desert. Tree‐ring records of precipitation and SPEI from the mountains were used to validate the hydroclimate correlations during the instrumental period. We found strong similarities between hydroclimatic changes in the Mt. Qilian and those in the central and western Alxa desert, on both annual and decadal timescales, from 1877 to 2006. Tree‐ring width chronologies from mountainous areas were shown to faithfully represent the hydroclimatic history of the desert area. Plain Language Summary: Northwestern China has faced serious ecological challenges over the past five decades, including intensified desertification and declining lake levels. Understanding the regional hydroclimate history is necessary to manage water resources in this water‐deficient region. However, there are few climate proxies for these desert areas. In contrast, high‐resolution tree‐ring climate proxies have been studied intensively in the nearby mountains. This study attempts to find reliable correlations between mountain and desert hydroclimate. We found increasing mean temperatures over the entire study area. We also found that precipitation, relative humidity, and drought index data from the western and central desert were strongly correlated with data from Mt. Qilian, while data from the eastern desert were correlated with those from the Helan and Hasi mountain ranges. When relative humidity decreased mostly in the Mt. Qilian, precipitation and SPEI mostly increased; in the Mt. Helan and Hasi areas, relative humidity, precipitation and SPEI mostly decreased. Tree‐ring records from the mountains were compared to validate these correlations. Significant correlations were found between the precipitation reconstructions from the central desert and Mt. Qilian from 1877 to 2006. We also used tree‐ring width chronologies to show that they could represent the hydroclimatic history of the Alxa desert. Key Points: Precipitation and SPEI indicate wetter trends in Mt. Qilian but drier trends in Mt. Helan and Hasi ranges from 1960 to 2017Precipitation, relative humidity, and SPEI in western and central (eastern) Alxa desert resemble conditions in Mt. Qilian (Helan and Hasi)Tree‐ring proxies from nearby mountains can faithfully represent the hydroclimate history of the Alxa desert [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: The distribution of schistosomiasis has obvious regional characteristics. As the only intermediate host of schistosomiasis, Oncomelania''s breeding and distribution influence the prevalence and transmission of schistosomiasis directly. The cercaria of Schistosoma has a significant seasonal variation in Poyang Lake. This paper selects molluscicidal Oncomelania statistics, temperature, and precipitation of eight epidemics of schistosomiases in Poyang Lake. It constructs schistosomiasis transmission index prediction model of Poyang Lake to predict the propagation of Schistosomiasis. It analyzes the spatial variation of Oncomelania islet making use of Theil coefficient. Then, it analyzes the epidemic of Schistosomiasis spatial and temporal distribution features making use of GIS, Excel and SPSS in Poyang Lake based on climate changes. The results have shown that, the rapid increase of population in epidemic is not only related to the change of temperature and precipitation in each county, but also related to temperature positively and precipitation inversely in Poyang Lake. The transmission of Schistosomiasis is not only of great differences in time but also in scale with large district and spatial variation in Poyang Lake Region. Appropriate habitat of Oncomelania and schistosoma has been moving northward, which maybe result in the transmission of schistosomiasis moving northward. Further impacts on the epidemic situation of schistosomiasis spread in Poyang Lake Region. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: This paper introduces a new model for regional climate simulation-Star model, and explains the scheme, the usage and the application of the Star model. Taking the “Temperature of 2m” and “Precipitation” as the characteristic variables of climate, the model is calculated and tested by taking Huailai climate station of China as practical example. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

The Oligocene marked the beginning of the present 'icehouse' epoch and witnessed the development and evolution of the Asian monsoon system (AMS). In this paper, the early Oligocene Ningming flora of Guangxi, southern China, is analysed to investigate the AMS based on climate proxies derived from Climate Leaf Analysis Multivariate Program (CLAMP). CLAMP results suggest that the prevailing climate experienced by the Ningming flora was humid subtropical with hot summers and warm winters. Although the record of precipitation seasonality is muted, it is about half as strong as that seen today in monsoon climates of South China, indicating a very weak monsoonal signal. Despite suggesting weak rainfall seasonality, the position of the Ningming flora in physiognomic space indicates that leaves exhibit monsoon-adapted morphologies, comparable to today's vegetation exposed to the Indonesia–Australia monsoon (I-AM) and the transitional monsoon area (influenced by the East Asia monsoon, South Asia monsoon and I-AM). Leaf architectural signatures reveal that the Ningming flora grew under a humid subtropical climate with subtle monsoon signatures. Although it is difficult to distinguish the different domains of the Asian monsoon under such a subtle monsoon influence, based on leaf signatures from southern Asia, it can be inferred that the Ningming Basin during the early Oligocene was exposed to a climate regime similar to that today influenced by the I-AM. In addition, the moist enthalpy method was applied to quantitatively reconstruct the paleoelevation of the Ningming Basin. This approach suggests a paleoelevation estimate of ~1.24–1.35 ± 0.52 km for the early Oligocene, suggesting that a drop in paleoelevation of the Ningming Basin took place after the early Oligocene (Rupelian). The CLAMP results suggest that the early Oligocene Ningming area was at a mid-altitude and experienced a humid subtropical climate with subtle monsoon signatures. • Leaves from the early Oligocene Ningming Basin were subjected to a CLAMP analysis. • The prevailing paleoclimate was humid subtropical with hot summers and warm winters. • Leaf physiognomic spectra shows an adaptation to monsoon climates. • The paleoclimate is similar to a climate regime today influenced by the I-AM. • The early Oligocene Ningming Basin was likely at a height of ~ 1.24–1.35 km. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study aims to investigate the combined effects of temperature and precipitation on the hydrological processes in a watershed with intensive agricultural land uses during the spring snowmelt period. Temperature, precipitation, soil moisture, frozen soil depth, and discharge were monitored during the freezing and thawing periods in 2014, 2015, and 2016 within the 75 km2 agricultural Heidingzi watershed in northeast China. The results indicated that high autumn rainfall and early precipitation, as well as the corresponding temperature rise, during the stable freezing period, increased the amount of surface water stored in the ice form before the spring runoff. These conditions produced a prolonged and increasing runoff event, and the highest runoff ratio of the ice melt runoff process during the thawing period in 2014. However, low autumn rainfall, dispersed precipitation, and negligible temperature rises during the stable freezing period in 2014–2015 led to a significant but short-term snowmelt runoff during the thawing period in 2015. Because of similar precipitation conditions as in 2014–2015 and a temperature rise event during the freezing period in 2015–2016, the runoff during the thawing period in 2016 was a combination of snow and ice melt; the runoff ratio during the early- and late-melt stages in the maize-dominated drainage region (DR) was the highest with the lowest precipitation. Additionally, the early low rainfall during the thawing period in 2014 increased the direct runoff ratios by 2–13 times for the entire watershed, DRM, and DRP-M, as early rainfall resulted in small soil thaw depth and low water storage. Different land use activities in the agricultural watershed supported the spatial and temporal differences and uncertainties in the spring snow or ice melt runoff generation process. Moreover, snowmelt simulation models can rarely distinguish between ice and snowmelt during spring runoff generation processes, probably leading to high uncertainty in simulating spring runoff response to climate change in seasonal freezing areas. This study reveals the characteristics and causes of snow and ice melt runoff processes in agricultural watersheds that experience seasonal freezing and provides a new perspective for improving the modeling of water generation processes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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A persistent concern about the social consequences of climate change is that large, vulnerable populations will be involuntarily displaced. Existing evidence suggests that changes in precipitation and temperature can increase migration in particular contexts, but the potential for this relationship to evolve over time alongside processes of adaptation and development has not been widely explored. To address this issue, we link longitudinal data from 20 thousand Chinese adults from 1989 to 2011 to external data on climate anomalies and use this linked dataset to explore how climatic effects on internal migration have changed over time while controlling for potential spatial and temporal confounders. We find that temperature anomalies initially displaced permanent migrants at the beginning of our study period, but that this effect had reversed by the end of the study period. A parallel analysis of income shares suggests that the explanation might lie in climate vulnerability shifting from agricultural to non-agricultural livelihood activities. Taken together with evidence from previous case studies, our results open the door to a potential future in which development and in situ adaptation allow climate-induced migration to decline over time, even as climate change unfolds. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The spatial and temporal variations of the vegetation carbon flux in China from 1901 to 2005 were studied using the vegetation net primary production (NPP) values from seven Earth-system models. In addition, the temporal and spatial changes in the nitrogen deposition flux in China were studied using the NHx and NOx fluxes from 1901 to 2005. The relationship between changes in the carbon flux, nitrogen flux and climate was analyzed. The results show that (1) over the past 100 years, NPP in China has shown an upward trend. The average trend coefficient is 0.88 and the NPP distribution trend is generally low in the north and high in the south, with a gradual increase from the northwest to the southeast. Temperature, precipitation and radiation are all conducive to plant growth in the direction of the gradient. The correlation coefficients between the ensemble model mean NPP and temperature, precipitation, longwave radiation and shortwave radiation are 0.88,0.73,0.91 and 0.67, respectively. (2) In the past 100 years, the NHx and NOy fluxes in China have shown an upward trend, with trend coefficients of 0.98 and 0.98, respectively, which pass the 99.9% confidence level of the t-test. NHx and NOy fluxes are also generally low in the north and high in the south, with a gradual increase from the northwest to the southeast in a step-like pattern. (3) The spatial distribution of the correlation coefficients between the NHx and NOy fluxes and air temperature is similar, with only slight differences in values. The spatial distribution of the correlation coefficients between the NHx and NOy fluxes and precipitation is similar in overall pattern, but the pattern is relatively complicated, with a positive-negative-positive-negative-positive pattern occurring across the monsoon region from north to south, and a negative-positive-negative-positive pattern occurring beyond the monsoon region from east to west. (4) The spatial distribution of the correlation coefficients between the NHx and NOy fluxes and NPP shows a generally consistent pattern, but the pattern is relatively uneven. The average distribution of the ensemble model mean is positive correlation in northeast China and southwest China, and alternating positive and negative correlation in other regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using household level and plot level survey data spanning over 10 years, this study examines the effects of climatic factors on the frequency of punctual on-demand deliveries of groundwater for irrigation at the farm level in the North China Plain. Data show that for the past few decades, farmers have experienced a decline in the frequency of punctual on-demand deliveries of groundwater for irrigation, which is measured by the proportion of the number of groundwater irrigations whose delivery timing matched the requests of farmers. Econometric estimation results show that both long-term climate conditions (mean temperature and total precipitation) and short-term weather conditions during the growing seasons have statistically significant effects on the frequency of punctual on-demand deliveries of groundwater for irrigation. However, these effects can show opposite results. The frequency of punctual on-demand deliveries of groundwater for irrigation is negatively associated with an increase in the long-term average temperature but is positively associated with a short-term temperature rise. The effects, moreover, may also differ in magnitude. Although the frequency of punctual on-demand deliveries of groundwater for irrigation is positively associated with higher precipitation levels in both the short-term and the long-term, the latter exerts a larger influence. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Variation in foliar and soil nitrogen (N) isotope composition (δ15N) across environmental gradients has been widely studied at various scales. However, much less is known about the patterns of N2-fixing species that are presumed to be independent of climatic factors due to their capacity to fix atmospheric N2. In this study, the foliar and soil δ15N in Caragana microphylla, a leguminous shrub important for its role in controlling soil erosion and land desertification in northern China, were determined from 23 sites along an east–west transect across the species distribution range. The soil δ15N tended to be significantly higher than the foliar δ15N and there was a positive correlation between them (r2 = 0.58, p < 0.0001), though substantial variability was found in foliar and soil δ15N across all sites. Both soil and foliar δ15N were negatively correlated with precipitation, temperature, dry N deposition (DND) and longitude, but positively correlated with foliar N, soil N and altitude. The structural equation modeling further suggested growing season precipitation indirectly influenced foliar δ15N by its direct impact on soil δ15N and by its indirect impact on soil δ15N via DND and total N deposition (TND), whereas growing season temperature affected foliar δ15N indirectly both by its effect on foliar N and by its effect on soil δ15N via WND, TND and foliar N. Altogether, our results indicated that foliar δ15N also shifted along environmental gradients in leguminous plant species and showed primary dependence on soil δ15N, confirming previous findings in non-leguminous plants. These results augment our common understanding of foliar and soil δ15N patterns across climatic gradients in plants. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A Met Office Hadley Centre regional climate model, HadRM3P, is used to dynamically downscale the NOAA Twentieth Century Reanalysis, version 2c (20CRv2c), to generate a fine-resolution reconstruction of China's climate from 1851 to 2010. The downscaled dataset has a small warm and seasonal wet bias (1.4°C; 0.9 mm day−1) relative to recent observations but otherwise represents spatial and temporal trends realistically. Analysis focused on temperature and precipitation shows that downscaling 20CRv2c is found to improve its representation of China's climatological annual cycle, particularly over areas with sparse observational coverage such as the Tibetan Plateau. The downscaled dataset better represents the interannual variability and trends in observed temperature since 1901 and suggests that China has experienced a significant and sustained increase in temperature of 0.05°C (10 yr)−1 since the 1850s. Chinese precipitation trends have not changed significantly in the recent past or over the past 160 years. This analysis serves as an initial yet imperative step toward improving in-depth understanding of the characteristics and multidecadal drivers of high-impact events over China such as heat waves, droughts, and extreme precipitation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) play vital roles in plant growth and development. Yet how climate regimes and soil fertility influence plant N and P stoichiometry is not well understood, especially in the belowground plant parts. Here we investigated plant aboveground and belowground N and P concentrations ([N] and [P]) and their stoichiometry in three dominant genera along a 2200 km long climatic gradient in northern China. Results showed that temperature explained more variation of [N] and [P] in C4 plants, whereas precipitation exerted a stronger influence on [N] and [P] in C3 plants. Both plant aboveground and belowground [N] and [P] increased with decreasing precipitation, and increasing temperatures yet were negatively correlated with soil [N] and [P]. Plant N:P ratios were unrelated with all climate and soil variables. Plant aboveground and belowground [N] followed an allometric scaling relationship, but the allocation of [P] was isometric. These results imply that internal processes stabilize plant N:P ratios and hence tissue N:P ratios may not be an effective parameter for predicting plant nutrient limitation. Our results also imply that past positive relationships between plant and nutrient stocks may be challenged under changing climatic conditions. While any modeling would need to be able to replicate currently observed relationships, it is conceivable that some relationships, such as those between temperature or rainfall and carbon:nutrient ratios, should be different under changing climatic conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

ABSTRACT On the basis of the datasets obtained for the monthly turbulent heat flux (1984-2009) from the Objectively Analyzed Air-Sea Heat Flux (OAFlux), the radiation flux from the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP), the variability characteristics of the net heat flux (Qnet) over the Kuroshio System (KS) and its relationship with the climate in China were studied. The results reveal that except for a steady enhancement in the period 1984-2009, the boreal winter Qnet over the KS is characterized by obvious interannual variation of the period quasi-5 year as well as decadal variability shifting from negative to positive anomalies in the mid-1990s. In the wintertime, the increasing KS Qnet is primarily responsible for the intensification of the East Asia winter monsoon (EAWM) via a deepening of the Aleutian low and an enhancement of the Siberia high and has a correlation coefficient of 0.72 with a 1-month delay. The enhanced-EAWM induces colder winters in Northeast China and higher Qnet over the KS by carrying significantly greater amounts of cold air mass. During the low Qnet winter, the EAWM is weakened, and the southwesterly wind that contains abundant water vapour enhances and pushes toward southern China, thereby bringing heavier rainfall. The anomalous Qnet over the KS in the wintertime lasts until the following spring with a weaker relative intensity. In the spring after the low KS Qnet winter, the anomalous easterly wind transfers colder air masses from the Sea of Japan to the North China and Yellow-Huaihe regions and then cools these regions. The warmer and wetter southwesterlies along the northwestern flank of the anomalous anticyclone east of Taiwan Island meet these colder easterlies accompanied by an anomalous upward motion, thereby inducing an anomalous northwest-southeast precipitation band in the central and eastern region of China, especially in the Yangtze-Huaihe region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Context: Biomass expansion factors (BEFs, defined as the ratios of tree component biomass (branch, leaf, aboveground section, root, and whole) to stem biomass) are important parameters for quantifying forest biomass and carbon stock. However, little information is available about possible causes of the variability in BEFs at large scales. • Aims: We examined whether and how BEFs vary with forest types, climate (mean annual temperature, MAT; mean annual precipitation, MAP), and stand development (stand age and size) at the national scale for China. • Method: Using our compiled biomass dataset, we calculated values for BEFs and explored their relationships to forest types, climate, and stand development. • Results: BEFs varied greatly across forest types and functional groups. They were significantly related to climate and stand development (especially tree height). However, the relationships between BEFs and MAT and MAP were generally different in deciduous forests and evergreen forests, and BEF-climate relationships were weaker in deciduous forests than in evergreen forests and pine forests. • Conclusion: To reduce uncertainties induced by BEFs in estimates of forest biomass and carbon stock, values for BEFs should be applied for a specified forest, and BEF functions with influencing factors (e.g., tree height and climate) should be developed as predictor variables for the specified forest. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Qinling Mountains is the north–south boundary of China's geography; the vegetation changes are of great significance to the survival of wildlife and the protection of species habitats. Based on Landsat products in the Google Earth Engine (GEE) platform, Pearson's correlation coefficient method, and classification and regression models, this study analyzed the changes in NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) in the Qinling Mountains in the past 38 years and the sensitivity of its driving factors. Finally, residual analysis method and accumulate slope change rate are used to identify the impact of human activities and climate change on NDVI. The research results show the following: (1) The NDVI value in most areas of Qinling Mountains is at a medium-to-high level, and 99.76% of the areas correspond to an increasing trend of NDVI, and the significantly increased area accounts for more than 20%. (2) From 1981 to 2019, the NDVI of the Qinling Mountains increased from 0.63 to 0.78, showing an overall upward trend, and it increased significantly after 2006. (3) Sensitivity analysis results show that the western high-altitude area of Qinling Mountain area dominated by grassland is mainly affected by precipitation. The central and southeastern parts of the Qinling Mountains are significantly affected by temperature, and they are mainly distributed in areas dominated by forest. (4) The contribution rates of climate change and human activities to NDVI are 36.04% and 63.96%, respectively. Among them, the positive impact of human activities on the NDVI of the Qinling Mountains accounted for 99.85% of the area. The area with significant positive effect accounted for 36.49%. The significant negative effect area accounts for only 0.006%, mainly distributed in urban areas and coal mining areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Gongga Mountain, locates on the eastern edge of Tibetan Plateau of China, is the highest mountain in China except summits in Tibet. Only limited meteorological data on Gongga Mountain have been published so far. Here we present the meteorological records from two stations, Moxi Station (at 1,621.7 m above sea level (a.s.l.), 1992-2010) and Hailuogou Station (at 2,947.8 m a.s.l., 1988-2010), on the eastern slope of Gongga Mountain. In the past two decades, the annual precipitation decreased while the annual mean temperature increased at Hailuogou Station. Both precipitation and temperature increased at Moxi Station. The precipitation variation on the eastern slope of Gongga Mountain is influenced by both East Asian Monsoon and Indian Monsoon, so that the precipitation concentrated between May and October. The temperature variation on the eastern slope of Gongga Mountain in the past two decades showed similar trends as that of the northern hemispheric and global. In the past two decades, the temperature increased 0.35°C and 0.3°C/decade at Hailuogou Station and Moxi Station respectively, which was higher than the increase extents of northern hemispheric and global temperature. The most intense warming occurred at the first decade of 21st century. The winter temperature increased more at Hailuogou Station than at Moxi Station. A remarkable increase of temperature in March was observed with only a little precipitation at both high and low altitude stations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Spatiotemporal changes in climatic extremes in the Yellow River Basin from 1959 to 2008 were investigated on the basis of a suite of 27 climatic indices derived from daily temperature and precipitation data from 75 meteorological stations with the help of the Mann-Kendall test, linear regression method and GIS technique. Furthermore, the changes in the probability distribution of the extreme indices were examined. The results indicate: (1) The whole basin is dominated by significant increase in the frequency of warm days and warm nights, and dominated by significant decrease in the frequency of cold days and cold nights. Although trends in absolute temperature indices show less spatial coherence compared with that in the percentile-based temperature indices, overall increasing trends can be found in Max Tmax (TXx), Min Tmax (TXn), Max Tmin (TNx) and Min Tmin (TNn). (2) Although the spatial patterns and the number of stations with significant changes for threshold and duration temperature indices are also not identical, general positive trends in warm indices (i.e., summer days (SU25), tropical nights (TR20), warm spell duration indicator and growing season length) and negative trends in cold indices (i.e., frost days, ice days and cold spell duration indicator) can be found in the basin. Annual nighttime temperature has increased at a faster rate than that in daytime temperature, leading to obvious decrease in diurnal temperature range. (3) The changes in precipitation indices are much weaker and less spatially coherent compared with these of temperature indices. For all precipitation indices, only few stations are characterized by significantly change in extreme precipitation, and their spatial patterns are always characterized by irregular and insignificant positive and negative changes. However, generally, changes in precipitation extremes present drying trends, although most of the changes are insignificant. (4) Results at seasonal scale show that warming trends occur for all seasons, particularly in winter. Different from that in other three seasons, general positive trends in max 1-day precipitation (Rx1DAY) and max 5-day precipitation (Rx5DAY) are found in winter. Analysis of changes in probability distributions of indices for 1959-1983 and 1984-2008 indicate a remarkable shift toward warmer condition and a less pronounced tendency toward drier condition during the past decades. The results can provide beneficial reference to water resource and eco-environment management strategies in the Yellow River Basin for associated policymakers and stakeholders. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]