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Regional climate models (RCMs) have improved our understanding of the effects of global climate change on specific regions. The need for realistic forcing has led to the use of fully coupled global climate models (GCMs) to produce boundary conditions for RCMs. The advantages of using fully coupled GCM output is that the global-scale interactions of all components of the climate system (ocean, sea ice, land surface, and atmosphere) are considered. This study uses an RCM, driven by a fully coupled GCM, to examine the climate of a region centered over California for the time periods 1980–99 and 2080–99. Statistically significant increases in mean monthly temperatures by up to 7°C are found for the entire state. Large changes in precipitation occur in northern California in February (increase of up to 4 mm day-1 or 30%) and March (decrease of up to 3 mm day-1 or 25%). However, in most months, precipitation changes between the cases were not statistically significant. Statistically significant decreases in snow accumulation of over 100 mm (50%) occur in some months. Temperature increases lead to decreases in snow accumulation that impact the hydrologic budget by shifting spring and summer runoff into the winter months, reinforcing results of other studies that used different models and driving conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With this paper I discuss the importance of permeability among university- industry-government boundaries based on the experience of MIT and Boston, Stanford and Silicon Valley, the Research Triangle and North Carolina, and Newcastle University and Northeast UK. Encouraging permeability in university boundaries is a fi rst step to creating an entrepreneurial university, the driving force of the most successful innovation regions. Underlying drivers of innovation are transferable and may be instituted by specifi c policy initiatives addressing gaps in particular cases. These is no one-size-fi ts-all 'best-practice' mode but there are some common characteristics of innovation regimes such as 'boundary permeability' that can be positively infl uenced by explicit measures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: The Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) 4-dimensional variational (4D-Var) data assimilation systems have been systematically applied to the mesoscale circulation environment of the California Current to demonstrate the performance and practical utility of the various components of ROMS 4D-Var. In particular, we present a comparison of three approaches to 4D-Var, namely: the primal formulation of the incremental strong constraint approach; the dual formulation “physical-space statistical analysis system”; and the dual formulation indirect representer approach. In agreement with theoretical considerations all three approaches converge to the same ocean circulation estimate when using the same observations and prior information. However, the rate of convergence of the dual formulation was found to be inferior to that of the primal formulation. Other aspects of the 4D-Var performance that relate to the use of multiple outer-loops, preconditioning, and the weak constraint are also explored. A systematic evaluation of the impact of the various components of the 4D-Var control vector (i.e. the initial conditions, surface forcing and open boundary conditions) is also presented. It is shown that correcting for uncertainties in the model initial conditions exerts the largest influence on the ability of the model to fit the available observations. Various important diagnostics of 4D-Var are also examined, including estimates of the posterior error, the information content of the observation array, and innovation-based consistency checks on the prior error assumptions. Using these diagnostic tools, we find that more than 90% of the observations assimilated into the model provide redundant information. This is a symptom of the large percentage of satellite data that are used and to some extent the nature of the data processing employed. This is the second in a series of three papers describing the ROMS 4D-Var systems. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Glider observations were essential components of the observational program in the Autonomous Ocean Sampling Network (AOSN-II) experiment in the Monterey Bay area during summer of 2003. This paper is focused on the impact of the assimilation of glider temperature and salinity observations on the Navy Coastal Ocean Model (NCOM) predictions of surface and subsurface properties. The modeling system consists of an implementation of the NCOM model using a curvilinear, orthogonal grid with 1–4km resolution, with finest resolution around the bay. The model receives open boundary conditions from a regional (9km resolution) NCOM implementation for the California Current System, and surface fluxes from the Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS) atmospheric model at 3km resolution. The data assimilation component of the system is a version of the Navy Coupled Ocean Data Assimilation (NCODA) system, which is used for assimilation of the glider data into the NCOM model of the Monterey Bay area. The NCODA is a fully 3D multivariate optimum interpolation system that produces simultaneous analyses of temperature, salinity, geopotential, and vector velocity. Assimilation of glider data improves the surface temperature at the mooring locations for the NCOM model hindcast and nowcasts, and for the short-range (1–1.5 days) forecasts. It is shown that it is critical to have accurate atmospheric forcing for more extended forecasts. Assimilation of glider data provided better agreement with independent observations (for example, with aircraft measured SSTs) of the model-predicted and observed spatial distributions of surface temperature and salinity. Mooring observations of subsurface temperature and salinity show sharp changes in the thermocline and halocline depths during transitions from upwelling to relaxation and vice versa. The non-assimilative run also shows these transitions in subsurface temperature; but they are not as well defined. For salinity, the non-assimilative run significantly differs from the observations. However, the glider data assimilating run is able to show comparable results with observations of thermocline as well as halocline depths during upwelling and relaxation events in the Monterey Bay area. It is also shown that during the relaxation of wind, the data assimilative run has higher value of subsurface velocity complex correlation with observations than the non-assimilative run. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Coastal upwelling is a wind-driven ocean process. It brings cooler, saltier, and usually nutrient-rich deep water upward to replace surface water displaced offshore due to Ekman transport. The nutrients carried up by upwelling are important for primary production and fisheries. Ocean life can aggregate at the boundary between stratified water and upwelling water—the upwelling front. In an upwelling water column, temperature, salinity, and other water properties are much more homogeneous over depth than in stratified water. Drawing on this difference, we set up a key measure for differentiating upwelling and stratified water columns—the vertical temperature difference between shallow and deep depths. The vertical temperature difference is large in stratified water but small in upwelling water. Based on this classifier, we developed a method for an autonomous underwater vehicle (AUV) to autonomously detect and track an upwelling front. During the Controlled, Agile, and Novel Observing Network (CANON) Experiment in April 2011, the Tethys long-range AUV ran the algorithm to autonomously track an upwelling front in a dynamic coastal upwelling region in Monterey Bay, CA. The AUV transected the upwelling front 14 times over two days, providing a very high-resolution depiction of the front. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Impacts of pellets injected from the low-field side (LFS) on plasma in ITER are investigated using the 1.5D BALDUR integrated predictive modeling code. In these simulations, the pellet ablation is described using the neutral gas shielding (NGS) model. The pellet ablation model is coupled with the plasma core transport model, which is a combination of the MMM95 anomalous transport model and NCLASS neoclassical transport model. The boundary conditions are assumed to be at the top of the pedestal, in which the pedestal parameters are predicted using a pedestal model based on the theoretical-based pedestal width scaling (either magnetic and flow shear stabilization width scaling, or flow shear stabilization width scaling, or normalized poloidal pressure width scaling) and the infinite- n ballooning mode pressure gradient limit. These pedestal models depend sensitively on the density at the top of the pedestal, which can be strongly influenced by the injection of pellets. The combination of the MMM95 and NCLASS models, together with the pedestal and NGS models, is used to simulate the time evolution of the plasma current, ion and electron temperatures, and density profiles for ITER standard type-I ELMy H-mode discharges during the injection of LFS pellets. It is found that the injection of pellets results in a complicated plasma scenario, especially in the outer region of the plasma and the plasma conditions at the boundary in which the pellet has an impact on increasing the plasma edge density, but reducing the plasma edge temperature. The LFS pellet has a stronger impact on the edge as compared to the center. For fusion performance, the pellet can result in either enhancement or degradation, depending sensitively on the pellet parameters; such as the pellet size, pellet velocity, and pellet frequency. For example, when a series of deuterium pellets with a size of 0.5 cm, velocity of 1 km/s, and frequency of 2 Hz are injected into the ITER plasma from the LFS, the plasma performance, evaluated in terms of Q, can increase to 72% of that before the use of pellets. It is also found that the injection of pellets results in an increase in the ion and electron densities, but does not enhance the central plasma density. On the other hand, it results in the formation of another peak of the plasma density in the outer region near the plasma edge. The formation of the density peak results in the reduction of plasma transports near the edge by decreasing the contributions of ion-temperature-gradient and trapped electron modes, as well as kinetic ballooning modes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The second phase of the North American Monsoon Experiment (NAME) Model Assessment Project (NAMAP2) was carried out to provide a coordinated set of simulations from global and regional models of the 2004 warm season across the North American monsoon domain. This project follows an earlier assessment, called NAMAP, that preceded the 2004 field season of the North American Monsoon Experiment. Six global and four regional models are all forced with prescribed, time-varying ocean surface temperatures. Metrics for model simulation of warm season precipitation processes developed in NAMAP are examined that pertain to the seasonal progression and diurnal cycle of precipitation, monsoon onset, surface turbulent fluxes, and simulation of the low-level jet circulation over the Gulf of California. Assessment of the metrics is shown to be limited by continuing uncertainties in spatially averaged observations, demonstrating that modeling and observational analysis capabilities need to be developed concurrently. Simulations of the core subregion (CORE) of monsoonal precipitation in global models have improved since NAMAP, despite the lack of a proper low-level jet circulation in these simulations. Some regional models run at higher resolution still exhibit the tendency observed in NAMAP to overestimate precipitation in the CORE subregion; this is shown to involve both convective and resolved components of the total precipitation. The variability of precipitation in the Arizona/New Mexico (AZNM) subregion is simulated much better by the regional models compared with the global models, illustrating the importance of transient circulation anomalies (prescribed as lateral boundary conditions) for simulating precipitation in the northern part of the monsoon domain. This suggests that seasonal predictability derivable from lower boundary conditions may be limited in the AZNM subregion. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]