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Gridded precipitation (PRP) data have been largely used in diagnostic studies on the climate variability in several time scales, as well as to validate model results. The three most used gauge-based PRP datasets are from the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC), University of Delaware (UDEL), and Climate Research Unit (CRU). This paper evaluates the performance of these datasets in reproducing spatiotemporal PRP climatological features over the entire South America (SA) for the 1901–2015 period, aiming to identify the differences and similarities among the datasets as well as time intervals and areas with potential uncertainties involved with these datasets. Comparisons of the PRP annual means and variances between the 1901–2015 period and the non-overlapping 30-year subperiods of 1901–1930, 1931–1960, 1961–1990, and the 25-year subperiod of 1991–2015 for each dataset show varying means of the annual PRP over SA depending on the subperiod and dataset. Consistent patterns among datasets are found in most of southeastern SA and southeastern Brazil, where they evolved gradually from less to more rainy conditions from 1901–1930 to the 1991–2015 subperiod. All three datasets present limitations and uncertainties in regions with poor coverage of gauge stations, where the differences among datasets are more pronounced. In particular, the GPCC presents reduced PRP variability in an extensive area west of 50° W and north of 20° S during the 1901–1930 subperiod. In monthly time scale, PRP time series in two areas show differences among the datasets for periods before 1941, which are likely due to spurious or missing data: central Bolivia (CBO), and central Brazil (CBR). The GPCC has less monthly variability before 1940 than the other two datasets in these two areas, and UDEL presents reduced monthly variability before 1940 and spurious monthly values from May to September of the years from 1929 to 1941 in CBO. Thus, studies with these three datasets might lead to different results depending on the study domain and period of analysis, in particular for those including years before 1941. The results here might be relevant for future diagnostic and modelling studies on climate variability from interannual to multidecadal time scales. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents an evaluation of climate simulations produced by the Brazilian Global Atmospheric Model version 1.2 (BAM-1.2) of the Center for Weather Forecast and Climate Studies (CPTEC). The model was run over the 1975–2017 period at two spatial resolutions, corresponding to ~ 180 and ~ 100 km, both with 42 vertical levels, following most of the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) protocol. In this protocol, observed sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are used as boundary conditions for the atmospheric model. Four ensemble members were run for each of the two resolutions. A series of diagnostics was computed for assessing the model's ability to represent the top of the atmosphere (TOA) radiation, atmospheric temperature, circulation and precipitation climatological features. The representation of precipitation interannual variability, El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) precipitation teleconnections, the Madden and Julian Oscillation (MJO) and daily precipitation characteristics was also assessed. The model at both resolutions reproduced many observed temperature, atmospheric circulation and precipitation climatological features, despite several identified biases. The model atmosphere was found to be more transparent than the observations, leading to misrepresentation of cloud-radiation interactions. The net cloud radiative forcing, which produces a cooling effect on the global mean climate at the TOA, was well represented by the model. This was found to be due to the compensation between both weaker longwave cloud radiative forcing (LWCRF) and shortwave cloud radiative forcing (SWCRF) in the model compared to the observations. The model capability to represent inter-annual precipitation variability at both resolutions was found to be linked to the adequate representation of ENSO teleconnections. However, the model produced weaker than observed convective activity associated with the MJO. Light daily precipitation over the southeast of South America and other climatologically similar regions was diagnosed to be overestimated, and heavy daily precipitation underestimated by the model. Increasing spatial resolution helped to slightly reduce some of the diagnosed biases. The performed evaluation identified model aspects that need to be improved. These include the representation of polar continental surface and sea ice albedo, stratospheric ozone, low marine clouds, and daily precipitation features, which were found to be larger and last longer than the observed features. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper describes a comprehensive assessment of a new high-resolution, gauge–satellite-based analysis of daily precipitation over continental South America during 2004. This methodology is based on a combination of additive and multiplicative bias correction schemes to get the lowest bias when compared with the observed values (rain gauges). Intercomparisons and cross-validation tests have been carried out between independent rain gauges and different merging techniques. This validation process was done for the control algorithm [Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis real-time algorithm] and five different merging schemes: additive bias correction; ratio bias correction; TRMM Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis, research version; and the combined scheme proposed in this paper. These methodologies were tested for different months belonging to different seasons and for different network densities. All compared, merging schemes produce better results than the control algorithm; however, when finer temporal (daily) and spatial scale (regional networks) gauge datasets are included in the analysis, the improvement is remarkable. The combined scheme consistently presents the best performance among the five techniques tested in this paper. This is also true when a degraded daily gauge network is used instead of a full dataset. This technique appears to be a suitable tool to produce real-time, high-resolution, gauge- and satellite-based analyses of daily precipitation over land in regional domains. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A characterization of the diurnal cycle of precipitation (DCP) over the whole South America is still lacking in the literature and the scarcity of sub‐daily rain ground measurements limits the data available for analysis and forbids a correct validation of alternative datasets. In this paper we analyse the climatological mean DCP during the monsoon active season using five gridded datasets: two satellite precipitation estimates, two regional climate models and one reanalysis. Amazonia, the Brazilian Highlands, the northeastern South American coast, the Andes and the western Colombian coast are identified as the areas with most prominent DCPs. The afternoon convection triggered by solar heating over land and the coastal and topographic effects are the main modes of sub‐daily variability, based on an EOF decomposition of the 3 hourly mean precipitation fields. We explore the contribution of mean frequency and intensity to amount of precipitation and nighttime–daytime differences. In general, both models precipitate earlier and more frequently than the satellite products and do not reproduce correctly areas of observed predominant nighttime precipitation where mesoscale convective systems are active, like La Plata Basin or Amazonia. Over the analysed areas, the high frequency of precipitation is the driving mechanism of total amount in the models, whereas in the satellite products there is also considerable contribution from intensity. Overall, the reanalysis shows features in between the models and the satellite estimates, sharing characteristics with both types of data. The results presented here point at the diversity of sub‐daily precipitation characteristics in South America, the issues with conventional climate models and the uncertainty in satellite products and reanalyses. The growing interest in the DCP by the scientific community and the development of new techniques like convection permitting modelling will hopefully continue to improve our knowledge of the precipitation dynamics and its influence on climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Although large-scale atmospheric reanalyses are now providing physical, realistic fields for many variables, precipitation remains problematic. As shown in recent studies, using a regional model to downscale the global reanalysis only marginally alleviates the precipitation simulation problems. For this reason, later-generation analyses, including the recent National Centers for Environmental Prediction regional reanalysis, are using precipitation assimilation as a methodology to provide superior precipitation fields. This methodology can also be applied to regional model simulations to substantially improve the precipitation fields downscaled from global reanalysis. As an illustration of the regional model precipitation assimilation impact, the authors describe here an extended-range simulation comparison over South America. The numerical experiments cover the beginning of the Large-Scale Biosphere¿Atmosphere wet season campaign of January 1999. Evaluations using radiosonde datasets obtained during this campaign are provided as well. As will be shown, rain-rate assimilation not only increases the regional model precipitation simulation skill but also provides improvements in other fields influenced by the precipitation. Because of the potential impact on land surface features, the authors believe they will ultimately be able to show improvements in monthly to seasonal forecasts when precipitation assimilation is used to generate more accurate land surface initial conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Andes Cordillera plays a role in driving moisture and heat from tropical onto subtropical South America. It forces the development of a lee-side trough that covers most of western Argentina and a low-level jet that maximizes over Paraguay, eastern Bolivia and northern Argentina and is tightly linked to precipitation variability over much of central and southeastern South America. Its steep slopes and the large zonal gradients in topography between the Equator and 40°S are misrepresented in climate simulations using Global Climate Models (GCM) with resolutions coarser than about 100 km, since they naturally have a poor representation of the Andes and related circulation features. This paper analyses the impact of varying artificially the altitude of the Andes Cordillera in a GCM as well as increasing the horizontal resolution to study how these variations determine moisture fluxes and precipitation over selected regions of South America. Results show that the height of the Andes is crucial in shaping moisture fluxes pathways onto subtropical South America all year long. In particular, the low-level jet is only simulated when the Andes heights are doubled. At the same time, the relationship between the Andes shape and the location of the Bolivian High in summer is also discussed. In terms of precipitation, the lowest bias in the simulations is achieved when the horizontal resolution is increased, while in particular near the Andes foothills the simulated annual rainfall is largely determined by the Mountains shape. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Climate Hazards group Infrared Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS) dataset was conceived as a tool for monitoring drought and environmental change over land. Recent validation efforts along South America have assessed its suitability for reproducing the main spatial and temporal features of precipitation. Nevertheless, little has been done regarding the ability of CHIRPS for the assessment of wet and dry conditions, particularly in areas where in situ precipitation records are scarce. In this paper, we investigated the performance of CHIRPS for monitoring wet and dry events along the semiarid Central-Western Argentina. Using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), we compared the CHIRPS database with records from 49 meteorological stations along the study area for the period 1987–2016. Results indicate that the CHIRPS dataset adequately reproduced the temporal variability of SPI on multiple timescales (1 month, 3 months, and 6 months), particularly in the region dominated by warm season precipitation. The large overestimation of the seasonal precipitation in the region dominated by cold season precipitation can introduce errors that are reflected in the performance of CHIRPS over the western portion of the domain. The frequency of wet and dry classes was accurately reproduced by CHIRPS on timescales larger than 1 month (SPI1), given the existence of a wet bias that produces an underestimation of the frequency of zero values. This bias is further translated to the evaluation of the SPI1 during the spatial and temporal assessment of historical dry (1998) and wet (2016) events, especially for the classification of extreme dry/wet months. The results from the evaluation indicate that CHIRPS is a suitable tool for assessing dry and wet conditions for timescales longer than 1 month and can support decision-making process within the hydrometeorological agencies over the region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

On a hemispheric scale, it is now well established that stratospheric ozone depletion has been the principal driver of externally forced atmospheric circulation changes south of the Equator in the last decades of the 20th Century. The impact of ozone depletion has been felt over the entire hemisphere, as reflected in the poleward drift of the midlatitude jet, the southward expansion of the summertime Hadley cell and accompanying precipitation trends deep into the subtropics. On a regional scale, however, surface impacts directly attributable to ozone depletion have yet to be identified. In this paper we focus on South Eastern South America (SESA), a region that has exhibited one of the largest wetting trends during the 20th Century. We study the impact of ozone depletion on SESA precipitation using output from 6 different climate models, spanning a wide range of complexity. In all cases we contrast pairs of model integrations with and without ozone depletion, but with all other forcings identically specified. This allows for unambiguous attribution of the computed precipitation trends. All 6 climate models consistently reveal that stratospheric ozone depletion results in a significant wetting of SESA over the period 1960-1999. Taken as a whole, these model results strongly suggest that the impact of ozone depletion on SESA precipitation has been as large as, and quite possibly larger than, the one caused by increasing greenhouse gases over the same period. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An important goal of the Climate Variability and Predictability (CLIVAR) research on the American monsoon systems is to determine the sources and limits of predictability of warm season precipitation, with emphasis on weekly to interannual time scales. This paper reviews recent progress in the understanding of the American monsoon systems and identifies some of the future challenges that remain to improve warm season climate prediction. Much of the recent progress is derived from complementary international programs in North and South America, namely, the North American Monsoon Experiment (NAME) and the Monsoon Experiment South America (MESA), with the following common objectives: 1) to understand the key components of the American monsoon systems and their variability, 2) to determine the role of these systems in the global water cycle, 3) to improve observational datasets, and 4) to improve simulation and monthly-to-seasonal prediction of the monsoons and regional water resources. Among the recent observational advances highlighted in this paper are new insights into moisture transport processes, description of the structure and variability of the South American low-level jet, and resolution of the diurnal cycle of precipitation in the core monsoon regions. NAME and MESA are also driving major efforts in model development and hydrologic applications. Incorporated into the postfield phases of these projects are assessments of atmosphere–land surface interactions and model-based climate predictability experiments. As CLIVAR research on American monsoon systems evolves, a unified view of the climatic processes modulating continental warm season precipitation is beginning to emerge. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

ABSTRACT It is known that the El Niño - Southern Oscillation ( ENSO) episodes have a great influence on South American precipitation and its extreme events during austral autumn (from March until May, MAM) and winter (from June until August, JJA) that occur after the ENSO peak (normally this happens on austral summer). Recent papers have studied the two types of ENSO and their influence on atmosphere-ocean system. This study analysed the influence of Central and East equatorial Pacific ENSO on South American seasonal/monthly mean precipitation and its extreme events during MAM and JJA. The composites of precipitation anomalies, during these two types of ENSO, show that there are different, even opposite patterns over South America. In MAM, there is an increased precipitation in southeastern South America and a decrease in the northeast South America during East El Niño ( EEN) and an increased precipitation in central Brazil during Central El Niño ( CEN). In JJA, the signs of anomaly precipitation are opposite between CEN (less precipitation) and EEN (more precipitation) over southeastern South America. The extreme precipitation events show patterns consistent with the precipitation anomaly patterns, but, normally, the changes in the frequency of extremes precipitation events affect more extensive areas than the total precipitation. If monthly or seasonal atmospheric anomalies in a certain region during one of the types of ENSO are similar (opposite) to the atmospheric anomalies associated with extreme precipitation events in this region, then there is enhancement (suppression) of the frequency of extreme events in this region during this type of ENSO. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Global warming and climate change are threats to the world. Warmer temperatures and changes in precipitation patterns alter water availability and increase the occurrence of extreme weather events. South America and the Andes are vulnerable regions to climate change due to inequity and the uneven distribution of resources. Climate change evaluation often relies on the use of general circulation models (GCMs). However, the spatial resolution is too coarse and does not provide a realistic climate representation at a local level. This is of particular importance in mountain areas such as the Andes range, where the heterogeneous topography requires a finer spatial resolution to represent the local physical processes. To this end, statistical and/or dynamical downscaling methods are required. Several approaches and applications of downscaling procedures have been carried out in the countries of this region, with different purposes and performances. However, the main objective is to improve the representation of meteorological variables such as precipitation and temperature. A systematic review of these downscaling applications will identify the performance of the methods applied in the Andes region for the downscaling of precipitation and temperature. In addition, the meta-analysis could detect factors influencing the performance. The overall goal is to highlight promising methods in terms of fitness for use and identify knowledge gaps in the region. Methods: The review will search and examine published and grey literature on downscaling applications of temperature and precipitation in the Andes region. Predetermined criteria for eligibility will allow the screening of the evidence. Then, the method used in each application will be coded and mapped according to the country, purpose, variable, and type of downscaling. At the same time, quantitative and qualitative data will be extracted. The performance metrics are particularly interesting for this review. A meta-analysis will be conducted for those studies with comparable metrics. A narrative synthesis, maps and heatmaps will show the results. Tables, funnel plots, and meta-regressions will present the meta-analysis. Throughout the review, a critical appraisal step will categorize the validity of the evidence. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The physical mechanisms and predictability associated with extreme daily rainfall in southeastern South America (SESA) are investigated for the December-February season in a two-part study. Through a k-mean analysis, this first paper identifies a robust set of daily circulation regimes that are used to link the frequency of rainfall extreme events with large-scale potential predictors at subseasonal-to-seasonal scales. This represents a basic set of daily circulation regimes related to the continental and oceanic phases of the South Atlantic convergence zone (SACZ) and wave train patterns superimposed on the Southern Hemisphere polar jet. Some of these recurrent synoptic circulation types are conducive to extreme rainfall events in the region through synoptic control of different mesoscale physical features and, at the same time, are influenced by climate phenomena that could be used as sources of potential predictability. Extremely high rainfall (as measured by the 95th and 99th percentiles) is associated with two of these weather types (WTs), which are characterized by moisture advection intrusions from lower latitudes and the Pacific Ocean; another three WTs, characterized by above-normal moisture advection toward lower latitudes or the Andes, are associated with dry days (days with no rain). The analysis permits the identification of several subseasonal-to-seasonal scale potential predictors that modulate the occurrence of circulation regimes conducive to extreme rainfall events in SESA. It is conjectured that a cross-time scale interaction between the different climate drivers improves the predictive skill of extreme precipitation in the region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper identifies two sources of uncertainties in model projections of temperature and precipitation: internal and inter-model variability. Eight models of WCRP-CMIP3 and WCRP-CMIP5 were compared to identify improvements in the reliability of projections from new generation models. While no significant differences are observed between both datasets, some improvements were found in the new generation models. For example, in summer CMIP5 inter-model variability of temperature was lower over northeastern Argentina, Paraguay and northern Brazil, in the last decades of the 21st century. Reliability of temperature projections from both sets of models is high, with signal to noise ratio greater than 1 over most of the study region. Although no major differences were observed in both precipitation datasets, CMIP5 inter-model variability was lower over northern and eastern Brazil in summer (especially at the end of the 21st century). Reliability of precipitation projections was low in both datasets. However, the signal to noise ratio in new generation models was close to 1, and even greater than 1 over eastern Argentina, Uruguay and southern Brazil in some seasons. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines moisture transport on intraseasonal timescales over the continent and over the South Atlantic convergence zone (SACZ) during the South America (SA) summer monsoon. Combined Empirical Orthogonal Function analysis (EOFc) of Global Precipitation Climatology Project pentad precipitation, specific humidity, air temperature, zonal and meridional winds at 850 hPa (NCEP/NCAR reanalysis) are performed to identify the large-scale variability of the South America monsoon system and the SACZ. The first EOFc was used as a large-scale index for the South American monsoon (LISAM), whereas the second EOFc characterized the SACZ. LISAM (SACZ) index showed spectral variance on 30-90 (15-20) days and were both band filtered (10-100 days). Intraseasonal wet anomalies were defined when LISAM and SACZ anomalies were above the 75th percentile of their respective distribution. LISAM and SACZ wet events were examined independently of each other and when they occur simultaneously. LISAM wet events were observed with the amplification of wave activity in the Northern Hemisphere and the enhancement of northwesterly cross-equatorial moisture transport over tropical continental SA. Enhanced SACZ was observed with moisture transport from the extratropics of the Southern Hemisphere. Simultaneous LISAM and SACZ wet events are associated with cross-equatorial moisture transport along with moisture transport from Subtropical Southwestern Atlantic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Interannual variability is an important modulator of synoptic and intraseasonal variability in South America. This paper seeks to characterize the main modes of interannual variability of seasonal precipitation and some associated mechanisms. The impact of this variability on the frequency of extreme rainfall events and the possible effect of anthropogenic climate change on this variability are reviewed. The interannual oscillations of the annual total precipitation are mainly due to the variability in austral autumn and summer. While autumn is the dominant rainy season in the northern part of the continent, where the variability is highest (especially in the northeastern part), summer is the rainy season over most of the continent, thanks to a summer monsoon regime. In the monsoon season, the strongest variability occurs near the South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ), which is one of the most important features of the South American monsoon system. In all seasons but summer, the most important source of variability is ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation), although ENSO shows a great contribution also in summer. The ENSO impact on the frequency of extreme precipitation events is also important in all seasons, being generally even more significant than the influence on seasonal rainfall totals. Climate change associated with increasing emission of greenhouse gases shows potential to impact seasonal amounts of precipitation in South America, but there is still great uncertainty associated with the projected changes, since there is not much agreement among the models' outputs for most regions in the continent, with the exception of southeastern South America and southern Andes. Climate change can also impact the natural variability modes of seasonal precipitation associated with ENSO. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The authors present results on the relationship between tree-ring proxies and regional precipitation for several sites in tropical South America. The responsiveness of oxygen isotopes ( δδ18O) and seasonal growth as precipitation proxies was first validated by high-resolution sampling of a Tachigali myrmecophila from Manaus, Brazil (3.1°°S, 60.0°°W). Monthly growth of Tachigali spp. was significantly correlated with monthly precipitation. Intra-annual measurements of cellulose δδ18O in Tachigali spp. were also significantly correlated with monthly precipitation at a lag of approximately one month. The annual ring widths of two tropical tree taxa, Cedrela odorata growing in the Amazon (12.6°°S, 69.2°°W) and Polylepis tarapacana growing in the Altiplano (22.0°°S, 66.0°°W), were validated using bomb-derived radiocarbon 14C. Estimated dates were within two to three years of bomb-inferred 14C dates, indicating that these species exhibit annual rings but uncertainties in our chronologies remain. A multiproxy record spanning 180 years from Cedrela spp. showed a significant negative relationship between cellulose δδ18O and January precipitation. A 150-yr record obtained from Polylepis spp. also showed a significant negative relationship between δδ18O and March precipitation, whereas annual ring width showed a significant positive correlation with December precipitation. These proxies were combined in a multivariate framework to reconstruct past precipitation, revealing a significant increase in monsoon precipitation at the Amazon site since 1890 and a significant decrease in monsoon precipitation at the Altiplano since 1880. Proxy time series also showed spatial and temporal coherence with precipitation variability due to El Niño forcing, suggesting that oxygen isotopes and ring widths in tropical trees may be important diagnostics for identifying regional differences in the response of the tropical hydrologic cycle to anthropogenic warming. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The objective of this research is to explore the relationship between maximum and minimum temperatures, daily precipitation, and the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO). It was found that the different phases of the MJO show a consistent signal on winter temperature variability and precipitation in southeastern South America. Additionally, this paper explores the spatial–temporal variations of mutual information and joint entropy between temperature and the MJO. A defined spatial pattern was observed with an increased signal in northeastern Argentina and southern Brazil. In the local mutual information analysis, periods in which the mutual information doubled the average values were observed over the entire region. These results indicate that these connections can be used to forecast winter temperatures with a better skill score in situations where both variables covary. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper documents the main features of the weather, climate and climate variability over Andes cordillera in South America on the basis of instrumental observations. We first provide a basic physical understanding of the mean annual cycle of the atmospheric circulation and precipitation and over the Andes and adjacent lowlands. In particular, the diversity of precipitation, temperature and wind patterns is interpreted in terms of the long meridional extent of the Andes and the disruption of the large-scale circulation by this formidable topographic barrier. We also document the impact of the El Niño Southern Oscillation phenomenon on the temperature and precipitation regimes along the Andes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A simulation of the stable water isotope cycle over South America by the regional circulation model REMOiso is discussed. The performance of the regional model, with a resolution of 0.5° (∼55 km), is compared to simulations by the global circulation model ECHAMiso at two coarser resolutions and evaluated against observations of precipitation and δ18O. Here REMOiso is demonstrated to reproduce reasonably well climatic and isotopic features across South America. This paper explores further insights of δ18O as a climate proxy, based on REMOiso’s improvements as compared to ECHAMiso. In particular, the authors focus on the seasonal variation of the amount effect (δ18O decrease with precipitation amounts) and the anomalous δ18O continental gradient across the Amazon basin, as inferred from the REMOiso, ECHAMiso, and GNIP datasets. The finer resolution of topography in REMOiso enables a detailed analysis of the altitude effect: not only the first, but also the second derivative of δ18O with altitude is considered. It appears that high-altitude grid cells show an isotopic signature similar to Rayleigh distillation, in accordance with experimental studies. Finally, a Lagrangian reference frame is adopted to describe the evolution of δ18O in precipitation along its trajectory, in order to relate the simulation analysis to the fractionation mechanisms. This confirms that the amount effect, via Rayleigh distillation processes, is dominant during the wet season. During the dry season, the δ18O in precipitation is controlled by isotopic reequilibration of rain droplets with surrounding vapor, reflecting the impact of nonfractionating transpiration by the vegetation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim Species richness depends on climate and land use. Maintaining locations with favourable climate and land-use patterns is critical for protecting biodiversity because the loss of either can reduce the species richness that an area supports. Currently, the Guiana Shield (GS) receives abundant precipitation and has relatively light land use. For species richness this constitutes a good–good combination of climate and land use, respectively. In contrast, much of eastern Brazil receives low levels of precipitation and has heavy land use, which is a bad–bad combination for species richness. Thus, the current distribution of precipitation and land use in northern South America is relatively favourable for biodiversity. Palaeoclimate and model studies suggest, however, that the precipitation patterns for the two regions have switched before and could switch in response to greenhouse gas emissions. This paper examines the potential consequences of reconfiguring climate with respect to existing land-use patterns using South America as an example. Location South America north of 20° S and east of the Andes. Methods Ecosystem structure and function are modelled under (1) historical climate and (2) altered precipitation following a shift in the location of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). The distribution of precipitation, biomes, net primary productivity (NPP) and land use are then used to predict levels of species richness under the two climate scenarios. Results Climate changes could shift the distribution of vegetation and NPP such that conditions favourable for species richness in the GS region disappear. If land-use patterns were not prohibitive in eastern Brazil, the improved climate conditions there could compensate for the GS loss (assuming migratory barriers are overcome). Instead, existing land-use patterns cause the combined species richness projected for the two regions to plummet. Main conclusions Human activities will alter current configurations of land use and climate throughout the world. For species richness, new configurations are likely to include both positive and negative combinations of climate and land use. However, the irreversibility of past extinctions due to land-use patterns loads the dice against species richness. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Evaluating the response of climate to greenhouse gas forcing is a major objective of the climate community, and the use of large ensemble of simulations is considered as a significant step toward that goal. The present paper thus discusses a new methodology based on neural network to mix ensemble of climate model simulations. Our analysis consists of one simulation of seven Atmosphere–Ocean Global Climate Models, which participated in the IPCC Project and provided at least one simulation for the twentieth century (20c3m) and one simulation for each of three SRES scenarios: A2, A1B and B1. Our statistical method based on neural networks and Bayesian statistics computes a transfer function between models and observations. Such a transfer function was then used to project future conditions and to derive what we would call the optimal ensemble combination for twenty-first century climate change projections. Our approach is therefore based on one statement and one hypothesis. The statement is that an optimal ensemble projection should be built by giving larger weights to models, which have more skill in representing present climate conditions. The hypothesis is that our method based on neural network is actually weighting the models that way. While the statement is actually an open question, which answer may vary according to the region or climate signal under study, our results demonstrate that the neural network approach indeed allows to weighting models according to their skills. As such, our method is an improvement of existing Bayesian methods developed to mix ensembles of simulations. However, the general low skill of climate models in simulating precipitation mean climatology implies that the final projection maps (whatever the method used to compute them) may significantly change in the future as models improve. Therefore, the projection results for late twenty-first century conditions are presented as possible projections based on the “state-of-the-art” of present climate modeling. First, various criteria were computed making it possible to evaluate the models’ skills in simulating late twentieth century precipitation over continental areas as well as their divergence in projecting climate change conditions. Despite the relatively poor skill of most of the climate models in simulating present-day large scale precipitation patterns, we identified two types of models: the climate models with moderate-to-normal (i.e., close to observations) precipitation amplitudes over the Amazonian basin; and the climate models with a low precipitation in that region and too high a precipitation on the equatorial Pacific coast. Under SRES A2 greenhouse gas forcing, the neural network simulates an increase in precipitation over the La Plata basin coherent with the mean model ensemble projection. Over the Amazonian basin, a decrease in precipitation is projected. However, the models strongly diverge, and the neural network was found to give more weight to models, which better simulate present-day climate conditions. In the southern tip of the continent, the models poorly simulate present-day climate. However, they display a fairly good convergence when simulating climate change response with a weak increase south of 45°S and a decrease in Chile between 30 and 45°S. Other scenarios (A1B and B1) strongly resemble the SRES A2 trends but with weaker amplitudes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The purposes of this paper are to evaluate the new version of the regional model, RegCM3, over South America for two test seasons, and to select a domain for use in an experimental nested prediction system, which incorporates RegCM3 and the European Community-Hamburg (ECHAM) general circulation model (GCM). To evaluate RegCM3, control experiments were completed with RegCM3 driven by both the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis (NNRP) and ECHAM, using a small control domain (D-CTRL) and integration periods of January–March 1983 (El Niño) and January–March 1985 (La Niña). The new version of the regional model captures the primary circulation and rainfall differences between the two years over tropical and subtropical South America. Both the NNRP-driven and ECHAM-driven RegCM3 improve the simulation of the Atlantic intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) compared to the GCM. However, there are some simulation errors. Irrespective of the driving fields, weak northeasterlies associated with reduced precipitation are observed over the Amazon. The simulation of the South Atlantic convergence zone is poor due to errors in the boundary condition forcing which appear to be amplified by the regional model. To select a domain for use in an experimental prediction system, sensitivity tests were performed for three domains, each of which includes important regional features and processes of the climate system. The domain sensitivity experiments were designed to determine how domain size and the location of the GCM boundary forcing affect the regional circulation, moisture transport, and rainfall in two years with different large scale conditions. First, the control domain was extended southward to include the exit region of the Andes low level jet (D-LLJ), then eastward to include the South Atlantic subtropical high (D-ATL), and finally westward to include the subsidence region of the South Pacific subtropical high and to permit the regional model more freedom to respond to the increased resolution of the Andes Mountains (D-PAC). In order to quantify differences between the domain experiments, measures of bias, root mean square error, and the spatial correlation pattern were calculated between the model results and the observed data for the seasonal average fields. The results show the GCM driving fields have remarkable control over the RegCM3 simulations. Although no single domain clearly outperforms the others in both seasons, the control domain, D-CTRL, compares most favorably with observations. Over the ITCZ region, the simulations were improved by including a large portion of the South Atlantic subtropical high (D-ATL). The methodology presented here provides a quantitative basis for evaluating domain choice in future studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Deep convection in the Tunuyán Valley region (33°–34°S, 69°–70°W) on the eastern side of the highest peaks of the Andes Mountains is sometimes associated with damaging hail. Understanding the physical mechanisms responsible for the occurrence of deep convection in that region is therefore a central part of the development of hail suppression projects. In this paper, a case of deep convection that occurred on 22 January 2001 is studied in detail through a combined analysis of radar, satellite, and radiosonde data and numerical simulations using a nonhydrostatic mesoscale atmospheric (Meso-NH) model. The time evolution and stability characteristics are first documented using the data. In order to get insight into the main causes for the deep convection event, numerical simulations of that day were performed. These results are compared with the results corresponding to conditions of 4 January 2001 when no deep convection occurred. The comparison between the 2 days strongly suggests that the deep convection event occurred because of the simultaneous presence of anabatic winds, accumulation of moist enthalpy, and the stability conditions. The present results should be helpful in designing future observational programs in the region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The global impacts of El Niño on precipitation have been long‐recognized, but more understanding of the mechanisms behind this influence is needed. For instance, previous studies have largely overlooked the potential impacts of El Niño on terrestrial moisture recycling (TMR). We perform a 40‐year forward tracking simulation to derive a global climatology of recycled precipitation and use a composite analysis to investigate how El Niño affects TMR. We identify seven regions where the El Niño impact on TMR is most significant and find that, in these regions, changes in precipitation and TMR are directly related: they increase or decrease together. In addition, we find a marked latitudinal contrast between the Southern Hemisphere, where TMR increases during El Niño, and the Northern Hemisphere and the tropics, where it decreases. Our results indicate that the weakening and strengthening of TMR can be behind precipitation changes caused by El Niño globally. Plain Language Summary: El Niño is recognized as a climate variability phenomenon with significant impacts on precipitation worldwide. However, the mechanisms behind these impacts are not fully understood. Here we use model simulations to argue that one of those mechanisms is the effect of El Niño on terrestrial moisture recycling (TMR), that is, the fraction of precipitation fed by atmospheric moisture originating not in the ocean but on the continents. We show that El Niño significantly affects TMR globally, especially in seven regions of South America, Africa, North America, Europe, and Asia. In these regions, precipitation and TMR increase or decrease together. We find a contrast between the South and North of the planet: during El Niño, TMR increases in the Southern Hemisphere while decreasing in the Northern Hemisphere and the tropics. Overall, our results indicate that TMR weakening or strengthening are previously overlooked mechanisms behind precipitation changes caused by El Niño globally. Key Points: El Niño exerts significant effects on terrestrial moisture recycling worldwideEl Niño's impacts on terrestrial moisture recycling are most significant in seven regions worldwidePrecipitation and terrestrial moisture recycling increase or decrease together due to El Niño [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Transient incursions of midlatitude air to the east of the Andes Mountains into subtropical and tropical latitudes are a distinctive feature of the synoptic climatology over South America. The mean synoptic-scale structure of these incursions is documented in this paper on the basis of a compositing analysis of NCEP--NCAR reanalyzed meteorological fields and satellite-based outgoing longwave radiation measurements. Although these incursions are a year-round phenomenon, with relatively modest seasonal changes in their structure, this analysis is focused on the austral summer, when they have their largest impact in the precipitation field. The summertime incursions move equatorward at a mean speed of 10 m s 21 and retain their identities over intervals of about 5 days. The upper-level circulation is characterized by a midlatitude trough--ridge couplet that provides the quasigeostrophic forcing of the system. Before the onset of the incursions of midlatitude air, the approaching upper-level trough tends to deepen the semipermanent area of low pressure over the central plains of the continent (25°--10°S). The strong southward advection of warm, humid air creates favorable conditions for the development of deep convection over central and southern Argentina. During the next two days, a migratory cold anticyclone, steered by the ridge aloft, moves onto the southern plains of South America (40°-- 35°S), establishing a large-scale, southward-directed pressure gradient. Due to the blocking effect of the Andes, the induced low-level circulation assumes the form of an agesotrophic southerly flow that produces the equa-torward advection of the cold air. In this stage, enhanced convection occurs in a well-defined band of the intensified low-level convergence at the leading edge of the cold surge. This synoptic-scale banded structure in the convective cloudiness also emerges as the dominant mode of the day-to-day variability of the deep... [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Differences between climate conditions during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and the Mid-Holocene (MH) in southern South America inferred from the state-of-the-art PMIP3 paleoclimatic simulations are described for the first time in this paper. The aim is to expose characteristics of past climate changes occurred without human influence. In this context, numerical simulations are an indispensable tool for inferring changes in near-surface air temperature and precipitation in regions where proxy information is scarce or absent. The analyzed PMIP3 models describe MH temperatures significantly warmer than those of LGM with magnitudes of change depending on the season and the specific geographic region. In addition, models indicate that seasonal mean precipitation during MH increased with respect to LGM values in wide southern continental areas to the east of the Andes Cordillera whereas seasonal precipitation developed in areas to the west of Patagonian Andes reduced from LGM to MH. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Thunderstorms in southeastern South America (SESA) stand out in satellite observations as being among the strongest on Earth in terms of satellite-based convective proxies, such as lightning flash rate per storm, the prevalence for extremely tall, wide convective cores and broad stratiform regions. Accurately quantifying when and where strong convection is initiated presents great interest in operational forecasting and convective system process studies due to the relationship between convective storms and severe weather phenomena. This paper generates a novel methodology to determine convective initiation (CI) signatures associated with extreme convective systems, including extreme events. Based on the well-established area-overlapping technique, an adaptive brightness temperature threshold for identification and backward tracking with infrared data is introduced in order to better identify areas of deep convection associated with and embedded within larger cloud clusters. This is particularly important over SESA because ground-based weather radar observations are currently limited to particular areas. Extreme rain precipitation features (ERPFs) from Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission are examined to quantify the full satellite-observed life cycle of extreme convective events, although this technique allows examination of other intense convection proxies such as the identification of overshooting tops. CI annual and diurnal cycles are analyzed and distinctive behaviors are observed for different regions over SESA. It is found that near principal mountain barriers, a bimodal diurnal CI distribution is observed denoting the existence of multiple CI triggers, while convective initiation over flat terrain has a maximum frequency in the afternoon. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: The prevailing view in the palaeoclimate literature of the last 20 years is that the Southern Westerly Winds (SWW) were intensified over southern Australia and Tasmania during the warmer-than-present early Holocene (11–8ka). At similar latitudes on the opposite side of the southern mid-latitudes, palaeoclimate studies have suggested a poleward shift of the northern edge of the westerlies and focusing at 49°S in southern South America. This zonal asymmetry contrasts with the modern day zonal symmetry displayed by the SWW and poses a formidable challenge to an understanding of the modes of climatic variability of the southern extra-tropics. This paper presents an updated synthesis of continuous, radiocarbon-dated palaeoenvironmental data from the westerlies zone of influence in all Southern Hemisphere continents. Synchronous multi-millennial trends in moisture, vegetation, fire, and hydrologic balance are remarkably consistent with the way the SWW changes impact upon the climate in Southern Hemisphere landmasses in the modern climate. Considering the modern relationships between local precipitation and zonal wind speeds, it is suggested that the SWW changed in a zonally symmetric manner at multi-millennial scale between 14 and 5ka. Regional asymmetry develops after 5ka across the Southern Hemisphere, with a pattern of precipitation anomalies akin to the modern functioning of El Niño – Southern Oscillation, which started ∼6200 years ago. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Conventional surface data and quantitative estimations of precipitation are used to document the occurrence and spatial distribution of severe weather phenomena associated with deep moist convection over southeastern South America. Data used in this paper are 24-hour rainfall, maximum hourly gusts and present weather reports from the surface station network for Argentina to the north of 40°S and cover the period 2000–2005. Hourly rainfall estimated with the CMORPH technique (CPC MORPHing technique, R. J. Joyce et al., 2004) is included in the analysis in order to increase the density of the precipitation database from January 2003 to December 2005. Extreme events are detected by means of a 95th-percentile analysis of the 24-hour rainfall and wind; values greater than 30mm and 25ms−1 respectively are considered extreme in the study area. These results are related to the presence of deep convection by considering the 235K and 218K cloud shield evolution in Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite-12 Infrared (GOES-IR) imagery evaluated by the Forecasting and Tracking of Cloud Cluster (FORTRACC) technique. Rainfall above 30mmday−1 and present convection-related weather events tend to occur in the northeast of the country. Finally, an analysis is made of the relationship between severe phenomena and the location and lifecycle of Mesoscale Convective Systems (MCSs) defined by the 218K or 235K levels. According to the reports, favorable locations for severe weather concentrate to the northeast of the cloud shield anvil centroid although most of the cases are found in the northwest. This feature can be seen in systems with anvil areas larger than 250,000km2 in association to the predominant mid-level wind shear direction from the northwest over the area. Moreover, systems with centers located north of 30°S present a more circular shape while those to the south are more elongated with a NW–SE main axis clearly related to the presence and interaction with frontal zones over the area. Most of the events occur previous to the moment when the systems reach their maximum extension, between 2 and 10h after the initiation of the system depending on the size of the MCSs. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: This paper documents the main features of the climate and climate variability over South America, on the basis of instrumental observations gathered during the 20th Century. It should provide a modern reference framework for paleoclimate research in South America, targeting high-resolution proxies over the past few centuries. Several datasets suitable for present-day climate research are first described, highlighting their advantages as well as their limitations. We then provide a basic physical understanding of the mean annual cycle of the precipitation and atmospheric circulation over the continent and the adjacent oceans. In particular, the diversity of precipitation, temperature and wind patterns is interpreted in terms of the long meridional extent of the continent and the disruption of the large-scale circulation caused by the Andes cordillera, the contrasting oceanic boundary conditions and the landmass distribution. Similarly, the intensity and timing of the interannual and interdecadal climatic fluctuations exhibit considerable geographical dependence, as some regions are more influenced by large-scale phenomena rooted in the tropical oceans while others are more influenced by high-latitude phenomena. The impact of these large-scale phenomena over South America is documented by a regression analysis between selected atmospheric indices and the precipitation and temperature fields. We have included a discussion on the seasonality and long-term stability of such impacts, and complemented our general description by an updated review of the literature on climate variability over specific regions. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Patagonia is thought to be one of the wettest regions on Earth, although available regional precipitation estimates vary considerably. This uncertainty complicates understanding and quantifying the observed environmental changes, such as glacier recession, biodiversity decline in fjord ecosystems and enhanced net primary production. The Patagonian Icefields, for example, are one of the largest contributors to sea-level rise outside the polar regions, and robust hydroclimatic projections are needed to understand and quantify current and future mass changes. The reported projections of precipitation from numerical modelling studies tend to overestimate those from in situ determinations, and the plausibility of these numbers has never been carefully scrutinized, despite the significance of this topic to our understanding of observed environmental changes. Here I use simple physical arguments and a linear model to test the plausibility of the current precipitation estimates and its impact on the Patagonian Icefields. The results show that environmental conditions required to sustain a mean precipitation amount exceeding 6.09±0.64 m yr -1 are untenable according to the regional moisture flux. The revised precipitation values imply a significant reduction in the surface mass balance of the Patagonian Icefields compared to previously reported values. This yields a new perspective on the response of Patagonia's glaciers to climate change and their sea-level contribution and might also help reduce uncertainties in the change of other precipitation-driven environmental phenomena. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Eastern Pacific (EP) and Central Pacific (CP) El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) types and their impacts on the tropical North Atlantic (TNA) SST variability and 15°N–15°S South American precipitation during the warm and cold phases of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (WAMO and CAMO) were evaluated during the 1901–2012 period. The results show more frequent ENSO events during the CAMO. The El Niño (EN) (La Niña [LN]) events, regardless of type (EP or CP), during the WAMO (CAMO) were accompanied by a warming (cooling) in the TNA after its mature phases. In these cases, extratropical teleconnection patterns are established through variations in the Pacific/North America (PNA) teleconnection pattern and are accompanied by variations in the Walker circulation. For the EN (LN) in the CAMO (WAMO), the tropical teleconnections occur predominant, through the Walker cell and the zonal inter‐basin gradient, which is intensified due to the SST gradient between the eastern equatorial Pacific (non‐neutral anomalies) and the equatorial Atlantic (neutral anomalies). These circulation pattern changes affect the precipitation patterns in the 15°N–15°S South American sector during December–January–February (D(0)JF(+1)) and March–April–May (MAM(+1)). The EP EN (EPEN) events are associated with the intensification of the negative precipitation anomalies in northeastern Brazil (NEB) during the WAMO and in the central part of the Amazon during the CAMO. In the case of CP EN (CPEN) events, the greatest differences between the AMO phases occur during MAM(+1), with reverse sign anomalies over northwestern South America. In the case of LN events, the largest differences occur in NEB, with reduced rainfall in the WAMO, regardless of type EP or CP. The results presented here highlight the role of low frequency oscillations in defining the teleconnection patterns between tropical Pacific and Atlantic Oceans, not discussed previously. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This work presents an analysis of the observed trends in extreme precipitation events in the Paraná River basin (PRB) from 1977 to 2016 (40 yr) based on daily records from 853 stations. The Mann–Kendall test and inverse-distance-weighted interpolation were applied to annual and seasonal precipitation and also for four extreme precipitation indices. The results show that the negative trends (significance at 95% confidence level) in annual and seasonal series are mainly located in the northern and northeastern parts of the basin. In contrast, except in the autumn season, positive trends were concentrated in the southern and southeastern regions of the basin, most notably for annual and summer precipitation. The spatial distributions of the indices of annual maximum 5-day precipitation and number of rainstorms indicate that significant positive trends are mostly located in the south-southeast part of the basin and that significant negative trends are mostly located in the north-northeast part. The index of the annual number of dry days shows that 88% of significant trends are positive and that most of these are located in the northern region of the PRB, which is a region with a high number of consecutive dry days (>90). The simple daily intensity index showed the highest number of stations (263) with mostly positive significant trends. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the present study, five-year of precipitation features (PFs) datasets, based on Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM), are used to investigate the global and regional characteristics of extreme rainfall events (EREs). The EREs are defined based on the PFs area, depth (maximum height of radar reflectivity), and the rain rate and called them largest, deepest, and intense EREs, respectively. The EREs are divided into top 10%, 1%, 0.1%, and 0.01% based on their frequency of occurrences. It is observed that occurrences of EREs belonging to less than top 0.01% EREs follow the tropical rainfall climatology over the tropics based on all the parameters. Subtropical oceanic areas consist of a higher frequency of largest EREs, whereas tropical land areas consist of the higher number of deepest EREs. The most intense EREs (top 0.01%) are uniformly distributed over tropical areas and subtropical oceans, and spatial distribution shows that a deepest ERE belongs to intense EREs in the tropical land areas. Large differences between the precipitation contribution from the largest and deepest EREs are seen; for example, the top 1% of largest EREs contribute to ∼80.7% of Earth's precipitation, whereas the corresponding percentage for deepest EREs is only 53%. On the regional and seasonal scale, South Asia (SAsia) and South America (SA) nearly show common features, as oceanic and land areas consist of largest and deepest EREs, respectively, and contribute to higher precipitation. Subtropical latitudes over South America, including Sierra de Cordoba and La Plata basin, consist of deepest and intense EREs and match with those of the Indo-Gangetic plain over South Asia, which also shows the similar characteristics. EREs based on various parameters are strongly linked over SAsia compared to SA. For example, the largest top 10% EREs have a higher probability to be part of the top 10% deepest and intense EREs over SAsia. The seasonal and regional water budget reveals different characteristics, as in the southern hemisphere, the deeper EREs contribute to the higher fraction of rainfall, but over SAsia, the shallower EREs could also contribute to significant rainfall. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Earth system models predict a zonal dipole of precipitation change over tropical South America, with decreases over the Amazon and increases over the Andes. Much of this has been attributed to the physiological response of the rainforest to elevated CO2, which describes a basin‐wide reduction in stomatal conductance and transpiration. While robust in Earth system model experiments, details of the underlying atmospheric mechanism—specifically how it evolves in the context of land‐atmosphere interaction and the diurnal cycle—are unresolved. We investigate this using idealized model simulations and find that within 24 hr of a CO2 increase, changes occur over the Amazon that engender synoptic timescale feedbacks. Decreased evapotranspiration from the rainforest throttles near‐surface moisture, inducing a drier, warmer, and deeper boundary layer. Above this, enhanced turbulent diffusivity increases vapor in the lower free troposphere. Together, these processes reduce convective activity and cause immediate decreases in Amazon rainfall. Over the synoptic timescale, these changes leave behind lower tropospheric moisture, which is advected westward by the background jet and increases Andean precipitation. This produces a dipole of precipitation change consistent across global and regional models as well as parameterized and resolved convection, though details are sensitive to model topography and boundary layer formulation. The mechanism reported here stresses the importance of fast timescale processes affecting stability over a period of hours that can influence longer‐term vegetation‐climate interactions. These results help clarify the Amazon's physiological response to rising CO2 and provide insight into possible causes of historical model biases and end‐of‐century uncertainty in this region. Key Points: Increasing CO2 over the Amazon causes a drier, warmer, and expanded boundary layer and reduces basin‐wide rainfall within the first dayOn synoptic timescales, enhanced lower free troposphere moisture is advected westward by the low‐level jet, increasing Andean rainfallA wetter Andes, dryer Amazon pattern is robust across regional and global climate models and for different convective formulations [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Precipitation, low‐level flow and atmospheric moisture transport fields over the Intra‐Americas region from a Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) multi‐decadal simulation are presented. The period of analysis is 1982–2012, and the focus is on mean monthly states and their variability. WRF results are compared to global precipitation products and to the Interim Reanalysis from the ECWMF (ERA‐Interim). An analysis of the coupling between precipitation over northern South America and regional scale sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and winds within ERA‐Interim and WRF is also presented. Over land, precipitation biases in WRF are mostly positive, especially over Central America and northern South America. This bias is associated with an excess in atmospheric moisture convergence in WRF compared to ERA‐Interim, which in turn is related to stronger low‐level circulation structures and differences in the moisture transport field between WRF and ERA‐Interim at the regional scale. The largest differences in the flow are observed over the eastern Pacific, where the flow is correlated with precipitation over southern Mexico, Central America and northern South America during the boreal summer. During early winter, correlation patterns of WRF precipitation and SST anomalies over the tropical Pacific are substantially weaker over western Texas and northwestern South America compared to the coupling between the global precipitation products and observed SSTs. For northwestern South America, the low correlation seems to be associated to a lack of coupling between regional scale winds and SST anomalies. During the boreal summer, the coupling between Caribbean SSTs and precipitation over parts of Mexico and Central America is stronger in WRF compared to observation‐based products. Precipitation over northern South America is sensitive to sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies over the Pacific, especially during the driest season December–January. This relationship is evident in the correlation between SSTs over the Pacific and Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC)‐precipitation over the Colombian Andes (brown contours, top‐left panel). However, a regional climate simulation with Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) does not show such coupling during the early dry season (top right). This behaviour seems to be a consequence of the lack of coupling between regional‐scale moisture transport and SSTs in WRF. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The seasonal cycle of the intraseasonal (IS) variability of precipitation in South America is described through the analysis of bandpass filtered outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) anomalies. The analysis is discriminated between short (10-30 days) and long (30-90 days) intraseasonal timescales. The seasonal cycle of the 30-90-day IS variability can be well described by the activity of first leading pattern (EOF1) computed separately for the wet season (October-April) and the dry season (May-September). In agreement with previous works, the EOF1 spatial distribution during the wet season is that of a dipole with centers of actions in the South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ) and southeastern South America (SESA), while during the dry season, only the last center is discernible. In both seasons, the pattern is highly influenced by the activity of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). Moreover, EOF1 is related with a tropical zonal-wavenumber-1 structure superposed with coherent wave trains extended along the South Pacific during the wet season, while during the dry season the wavenumber-1 structure is not observed. The 10-30-day IS variability of OLR in South America can be well represented by the activity of the EOF1 computed through considering all seasons together, a dipole but with the stronger center located over SESA. While the convection activity at the tropical band does not seem to influence its activity, there are evidences that the atmospheric variability at subtropical-extratropical regions might have a role. Subpolar wavetrains are observed in the Pacific throughout the year and less intense during DJF, while a path of wave energy dispersion along a subtropical wavetrain also characterizes the other seasons. Further work is needed to identify the sources of the 10-30-day-IS variability in South America. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Observations show an increase in maximum precipitation extremes and a decrease in maximum temperature extremes over southeastern South America (SESA) in the second half of the twentieth century. The Community Earth System Model (CESM) Large Ensemble (LE) experiments are able to successfully reproduce the observed trends of extreme precipitation and temperature over SESA. Careful analysis of a smaller ensemble of CESM-LE single forcing experiments reveals that the trends of extreme precipitation and temperature over SESA are mostly caused by stratospheric ozone depletion. The underlying dynamical mechanism is investigated and it is found that, as a consequence of stratospheric ozone depletion and the resulting southward shift of tropospheric jet streams, anomalous easterly flow and more intense cyclones have occurred over SESA, which are favorable for heavier rainfall extremes and milder heat extremes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Combining individual forecasts is one of the practices used to improve weather prediction results. Identifying which combination of techniques results in a more accurate forecast is the subject of many comparative studies as well proposals for combined methods. Here we compare three combination techniques: (1) principal component regression (PCR), (2) convex combination by mean squared errors (MSE) and (3) ensemble average to combine six regional climate models of the Regional Climate Change Assessment for the La Plata Basin Project (CLARIS-LPB) for variable rainfall in three regions: Amazon (AMZ), Northeastern Brazil (NEB) and La Plata Basin (LPB), for the past (1961-1990) and future (2071-2100) climates. The results indicate that the average RMSE values showed improved representation of climate for LPB in some months, which is an important advance in climate studies. On the other hand, PCR presented greater accuracy (lower RMSE) than MSE in the AMZ and NEB regions. In winter months, both combinations presented lower RMSE results, mainly PCR in the three study regions. The correlation coefficient supports the results already found, namely, PCR obtained moderate to strong correlations, which were statistically significant at 5 % in both regions for all months, while MSE presented low to moderate correlations, which were statically significant at 5 % only in some months. Based on that, PCR achieved the best corrected forecast, as it was superior in forecasting precipitation due to the lower RMSE value. It is noteworthy that the PCR data were first subjected to principal component analysis (PCA) and the scores were used to perform the prediction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Previous study showed that the interaction of synoptic disturbances with intraseasonal anomalies is important for heavy rainfall in the South Atlantic Convergence Zone and the La Plata basin during the austral summer. Here, we conduct similar analysis to study the evolution of rainfall extremes during austral spring (SON), fall (MAM) and winter (JJA). A relatively homogeneous region over southeastern South America, whose limits change little from season to season, is heavily affected by extreme precipitation events, as indicated by the value of the 95th percentile of daily rainfall, higher during the spring season (16.94 mm day) and lower in winter (13.79 mm day). From 1979 to 2013, extreme rainfall events are more frequent in spring (131 events) and less frequent in fall (112 events). Similar to summertime extreme events, synoptic-scale waves continue to be the main drivers of extreme precipitation over the region. The interaction between these waves and intraseasonal anomalies during the development of rainfall extremes over southeastern South America is observed especially during neutral ENSO and La Niña conditions. Warm ENSO phases tend to favor more frequent extremes in all three seasons and extreme events during El Niños are associated with synoptic waves, with no significant interaction with intraseasonal anomalies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Warm-season precipitation variability over subtropical South America is characterized by an inverse relationship between the South Atlantic convergence zone (SACZ) and precipitation over the central and western La Plata basin of southeastern South America. This study extends the analysis of this 'South American Seesaw' precipitation dipole to relationships between the SACZ and large, long-lived mesoscale convective systems (LLCSs) over the La Plata basin. By classifying SACZ events into distinct continental and oceanic categories and building a logistic regression model that relates LLCS activity across the region to continental and oceanic SACZ precipitation, a detailed account of spatial variability in the out-of-phase coupling between the SACZ and large-scale organized convection over the La Plata basin is provided. Enhanced precipitation in the continental SACZ is found to result in increased LLCS activity over northern, northeastern, and western sections of the La Plata basin, in association with poleward atmospheric moisture flux from the Amazon basin toward these regions, and a decrease in the probability of LLCS occurrence over the southeastern La Plata basin. Increased oceanic SACZ precipitation, however, was strongly related to reduced atmospheric moisture and decreased probability of LLCS occurrence over nearly the entire La Plata basin. These results suggest that continental SACZ activity and large-scale organized convection over the northern and eastern sections of the La Plata basin are closely tied to atmospheric moisture transport from the Amazon basin, while the warm coastal Brazil Current may also play an important role as an evaporative moisture source for LLCSs over the central and western La Plata basin. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The South American monsoon system (SAMS) plays a fundamental role in the precipitation regime of the most populous and economically important regions in Brazil. The South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ) is a main component of the SAMS, characterizing its active phase, and is often associated with intense rainfall events: Strong and persistent episodes cause severe floods and landslides, while weak and sparse episodes are associated with droughts. The variability of the convergence zone caused great natural disasters in Southeast Brazil, associated with extreme precipitation conditions: 3562 landslides killed 947 people in Rio de Janeiro state in 2011, while a shortage of water in São Paulo affected around 20 million people between 2014 and 2015. In the present study, we build SACZ configuration series for the period between January 2000 and June 2014 and use them as indicators for the SAMS to quantify its influence on several atmospheric variables. Based on a principal component analysis, we present indices that identify the configuration of the SACZ in a local scale. The indices reached strong accuracy rates, especially for identifying days of extreme rainfall events associated with the SAMS and may, thus, serve as decision-making tools to help prepare for their impacts. Furthermore, the indices are composed by common variables simulated by numerical weather and climate models, other than precipitation, which is often a not very reliable output. The applied methodology is easily reproducible and different variables may be used to compose indices for different regions-an advantage of this local-scale approach. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Atlantic Intertropical Convergence Zone (A-ITCZ) exhibits variations on several time-scales and plays a crucial role in precipitation regimes of northern South America and western Africa. Here we investigate the variability of the A-ITCZ on intraseasonal time-scales during austral summer (November-March) and winter (May-September) based on a multivariate index that describes the main atmospheric features of the A-ITCZ and retains its variability on interannual, semiannual, and intraseasonal time-scales. This index is the time coefficient of the first combined empirical orthogonal function mode of anomalies (annual cycle removed) of precipitation, and zonal and meridional wind components at 850 hPa from the climate forecast system reanalysis (1979-2010). We examine associations between the intraseasonal variability of the A-ITCZ and the activity of the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO). We show that during austral summer intraseasonal variability of the A-ITCZ is associated with a Rossby wave train in the Northern Hemisphere. In austral winter this variability is associated with the propagation of a Rossby wave in the Southern Hemisphere consistent with the Pacific-South American pattern. Moreover, we show that intense A-ITCZ events on intraseasonal time-scales are more frequent during the phase of MJO characterized by convection over western Pacific and suppression over the Indian Ocean. These teleconnection patterns induce anomalies in the trade winds and upper level divergence over the equatorial Atlantic that modulate the intensity of the A-ITCZ. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The remote atmosphere over the Amazon can be similar to oceanic regions in terms of aerosol conditions and cloud type formations. This is especially true during the wet season. The main aerosol-related disturbances over the Amazon have both natural sources, such as dust transport from Africa, and anthropogenic sources, such as biomass burning or urban pollution. The present work considers the impacts of the latter on the microphysical properties of warm-phase clouds by analysing observations of the interactions between the Manaus pollution plume and its surroundings, as part of the GoAmazon2014/5 Experiment. The analysed period corresponds to the wet season (specifically from February to March 2014 and corresponding to the first Intensive Operating Period (IOP1) of GoAmazon2014/5). The droplet size distributions reported are in the range 1 µm ≤ D ≤ 50 µm in order to capture the processes leading up to the precipitation formation. The wet season largely presents a clean background atmosphere characterized by frequent rain showers. As such, the contrast between background clouds and those affected by the Manaus pollution can be observed and detailed. The focus is on the characteristics of the initial microphysical properties in cumulus clouds predominantly at their early stages. The pollution-affected clouds are found to have smaller effective diameters and higher droplet number concentrations. The differences range from 10 to 40% for the effective diameter and are as high as 1000% for droplet concentration for the same vertical levels. The growth rates of droplets with altitude are slower for pollution-affected clouds (2.90 compared to 5.59 µm km-1), as explained by the absence of bigger droplets at the onset of cloud development. Clouds under background conditions have higher concentrations of larger droplets (>20 µm) near the cloud base, which would contribute significantly to the growth rates through the collision-coalescence process. The overall shape of the droplet size distribution (DSD) does not appear to be predominantly determined by updraught strength, especially beyond the 20 µm range. The aerosol conditions play a major role in that case. However, the updraughts modulate the DSD concentrations and are responsible for the vertical transport of water in the cloud. The larger droplets found in background clouds are associated with weak water vapour competition and a bimodal distribution of droplet sizes in the lower levels of the cloud, which enables an earlier initiation of the collision-coalescence process. This study shows that the pollution produced by Manaus significantly affects warmphase microphysical properties of the surrounding clouds by changing the initial DSD formation. The corresponding effects on ice-phase processes and precipitation formation will be the focus of future endeavours. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Impacts of the main South American orographic structures (the Andes, the Brazilian Plateau and the Guiana shield) on the regional climate and associated global teleconnection are investigated through numerical experiments in which some of these features are suppressed. Simulations are performed with a ''two-way nesting'' system coupling interactively the regional and global versions of the LMDZ4 atmospheric general circulation model. At regional scale, the simulations confirm previous studies, showing that both the Andes and the Brazilian Plateau exert a control on the position and strength of the South Atlantic convergence zone (SACZ), mainly through their impact on the low-level jet and the coastal branch of the subtropical anticyclones. The northern topography of South America appears to be crucial to determine the leading mode of rainfall variability in eastern South America, which manifests itself as a dipole-like pattern between Southeastern South America and the SACZ region. The suppression of South America orography also shows global-scale effects, corresponding to an adjustment of the global circulation system. Changes in atmospheric circulation and precipitation are found in remote areas on the globe, being the consequences of various teleconnection mechanisms. When the Brazilian Plateau and the Andes are suppressed, there is a decrease of precipitation in the SACZ region, associated with a weakening of the large-scale ascendance. Changes are described in terms of anomalies in the Walker circulation, meridional displacements of the mid-latitude jet stream, Southern annular mode anomalies and modifications of Rossby wave train teleconnection processes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The regional influence of the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) on South America is described. Maps of probability of weekly-averaged rainfall exceeding the upper tercile were computed for all seasons and related statistically with the phase of the MJO as characterized by the Wheeler-Hendon real-time multivariate MJO (RMM) index and with the OLR MJO Index. The accompanying surface air temperature and circulation anomalies were also calculated. The influence of the MJO on regional scales along with their marked seasonal variations was documented. During December-February when the South American monsoon system is active, chances of enhanced rainfall are observed in southeastern South America (SESA) region mainly during RMM phases 3 and 4, accompanied by cold anomalies in the extratropics, while enhanced rainfall in the South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ) region is observed in phases 8 and 1. The SESA (SACZ) signal is characterized by upper-level convergence (divergence) over tropical South America and a cyclonic (anticyclonic) anomaly near the southern tip of the continent. Impacts during March-May are similar, but attenuated in the extratropics. Conversely, in June-November, reduced rainfall and cold anomalies are observed near the coast of the SACZ region during phases 4 and 5, favored by upper-level convergence over tropical South America and an anticyclonic anomaly over southern South America. In September-November, enhanced rainfall and upper-level divergence are observed in the SACZ region during phases 7 and 8. These signals are generated primarily through the propagation of Rossby wave energy generated in the region of anomalous heating associated with the MJO. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The results of an ensemble of regional climate model (RCM) simulations over South America are presented. This is the first coordinated exercise of regional climate modelling studies over the continent, as part of the CLARIS-LPB EU FP7 project. The results of different future periods, with the main focus on (2071-2100) is shown, when forced by several global climate models, all using the A1B greenhouse gases emissions scenario. The analysis is focused on the mean climate conditions for both temperature and precipitation. The common climate change signals show an overall increase of temperature for all the seasons and regions, generally larger for the austral winter season. Future climate shows a precipitation decrease over the tropical region, and an increase over the subtropical areas. These climate change signals arise independently of the driving global model and the RCM. The internal variability of the driving global models introduces a very small level of uncertainty, compared with that due to the choice of the driving model and the RCM. Moreover, the level of uncertainty is larger for longer horizon projections for both temperature and precipitation. The uncertainty in the temperature changes is larger for the subtropical than for the tropical ones. The current analysis allows identification of the common climate change signals and their associated uncertainties for several subregions within the South American continent. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The variability of sources or sinks of moisture and heat for the South American monsoon system (SAMS) region is investigated for the 1958-1995 period. So, moisture and heat budget equations are applied to data from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis project. Sources or sinks of moisture and heat are the equation residues and are referred to as residue and diabatic terms, respectively. Using empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis, the dominant variability modes of these terms are obtained for the study period, with the monthly anomalies of the residue and diabatic terms employed. For residue EOF01, negative (positive) principal component (PC01) values correspond to positive (negative) residue anomalies over tropical South America (TSAM), which indicate a moisture source (sink) before (after) 1976, cold (warm) phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). For the EOF01 of the diabatic term, negative (positive) PC01 values correspond to negative (positive) diabatic anomalies over TSAM, indicating a heat sink (source) before (after) 1976. Thus, a moisture source (sink) and a heat sink (source) occur over TSAM before (after) 1976. These findings are corroborated by composite analysis of the anomalies of precipitable water, 850 hPa air temperature, 500 hPa vertical pressure velocity, vertically integrated moisture flux (VIMF), VIMF divergence, and precipitation. In terms of system thermodynamics, these composites are indicative of SAMS weakening (strengthening) before (after) 1976, cold (warm) PDO phase. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We investigate the temporal evolution of moisture divergence and its spatial clustering properties over South America. Our analysis focuses on dependencies on the phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Moisture divergence is computed from daily reanalysis data of vertically integrated moisture flux provided by Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications for the time period from 1979 to 2010. We use a sliding-window approach to construct a sequence of complex networks, each obtained from synchronization of events of strong positive (negative) moisture divergence, which we interpret as strong evapotranspiration (precipitation) events. We make the following three key observations: (1) Moisture divergence values over the Amazon rainforest are typically higher during positive ENSO periods (El Niño events). (2) The spatial coherence of strong positive (upwelling) events assumes a characteristic pattern of reduced coherence in this area during El Niño conditions. This influence of ENSO on moisture divergence and its spatial coherence is dominated by the El Niño events of 1982, 1987, and 1997. (3) The clustering characteristics of the obtained climate networks qualitatively agree with the spatial distribution of connected regions with simultaneous events (i.e., events that occur at the same time), but provide a more detailed view on the spatial organization of strong atmospheric upwelling events. Interestingly, no comparable results are found for negative extremes of moisture divergence (strong precipitation events). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim The aim of this study was to test the role of environmental factors and spatially autocorrelated processes, such as historical fragmentation and dispersal limitation, in driving floristic variation across seasonally dry tropical forests ( SDTFs) in eastern South America. Location SDTFs extending from the Caatinga phytogeographical domain of north-eastern Brazil to the Chaco phytogeographical domain of northern Argentina, an area referred to as the Dry Diagonal. Methods We compiled a database of 282 inventories of woody vegetation in SDTFs from across the Dry Diagonal and combined this with data for 14 environmental variables. We assessed the relative contribution of spatially autocorrelated processes and environmental factors to the floristic turnover among SDTFs across the Dry Diagonal using variation partitioning methods. In addition, we used multivariate analyses to determine which environmental factors were most important in explaining the turnover. Results We found that the environmental factors measured (temperature, precipitation and edaphic conditions) explained 21.3% of the variation in species composition, with 14.1% of this occurring independently of spatial autocorrelation. A spatially structured fraction of 4.2% could not be accounted for by the environmental factors measured. The main axis of compositional variation was significantly correlated with a north-south gradient in temperature regime. At the extreme south of the Dry Diagonal, a cold temperature regime, in which frost occurred, appeared to underlie floristic similarities between chaco woodlands and southern SDTFs. Main conclusions Environmental variables, particularly those related to temperature regime, seem to be the most significant factors affecting variation in species composition of SDTFs. Thus historical fragmentation and isolation alone cannot explain the turnover in species composition within SDTFs, as is often assumed. Compositional and environmental heterogeneity needs to be taken into account both to understand the past distribution of SDTFs and to manage and conserve this key tropical biome. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]