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Canopy conductance (gc) is a crucial parameter in simulating evapotranspiration and modulating water exchange, but its variation mechanism has regional uncertainties and complex environmental co‐controls. In addition, the effect of extreme rainfall on gc cannot be ignored under the changing climate. Here, we investigated the variation and environmental controls on gc and the effect of extreme rainfall events in a Cunninghamia lanceolata forest across the subtropical area of Southern China. In July 2020, an extreme rainstorm hit the source area of the Xin'an River, with the cumulative rainfall on July 7 and 8 reaching 216.6 mm. The thermal diffusion probe method was used to measure the density of sap flow, and the environmental factors such as air temperature (Ta), net solar radiation (Rn) and soil water content (SWC) were monitored during the growing seasons of 2020 and 2021. Ultimately, gc obtained by the Penman‐Monteith equation was adopted since the result from the Köstner equation was overestimated. gc showed a unimodal curve on the diurnal scale, and this characteristic was more obvious after the extreme rainfall. Daily gc appeared a fluctuating pattern with a maximum in summer. gc was simultaneously affected by Ta, Rn, water vapour pressure difference (VPD), SWC, among which Ta was the most significant driving factor at both the diurnal and daily timescales. The regulation of Ta, VPD and SWC on gc had obvious thresholds, and the most definite response mode was VPD (2020: 1.25 kPa; 2021: 0.95 kPa). SWC and Ta were the dominant factors after the rainfall period, and the promotion effect of VPD on post‐rainy days turned to inhibition effect on typical sunny days. These findings will further reveal the water exchange mechanism between atmosphere and vegetation and impacts of environmental factors in subtropical coniferous forests, especially after the extreme rainfall events. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding future variations and trends of heatwave events has critical implications for the ecosystem and human health. However, the diverse metrics of heatwave affect the comparable assessment of heatwave evolution at regional scales. The inadequate consideration of the enhanced warming trend and local antecedent heat conditions at different climate zones undermines the comprehensive understanding of future heatwave changes. Here, we systematically assess variations and trends in duration, frequency, and intensity of heatwave events in China from 1961 to 2100, using historical observations and climate model simulations from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6. The increased rates and trends in the duration and frequency are more evident than those in intensity and severe heatwave days. Regionally, the northern and western regions are projected to suffer longer and more frequent consecutive heatwaves, while southern regions are likely at greater risk of severe heatwave days. A comparison among four scenarios shows that the future heatwave characteristics projected by the high forcing Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP5‐8.5) exhibit substantial intensification than those in other three experiments, imposing intractable dangers to numerous organisms and ecosystems. Under the SSP1‐2.6, the acceleration of all heatwave characteristics is projected to slow down in all regions after 2040. In addition to maximum temperature, temperature advections are projected to contribute to heatwave intensification in western regions. Our results provide a comprehensive assessment of future variations and trends in heatwave events. The comparable future changes across unevenly developed regions are necessary for improving regional adaptive capacity to extreme heat risk. Plain Language Summary: In the past century, China has experienced a clear warming trend. More frequent heatwaves affect crops, vegetations, and water consumption, leading to detrimental impacts on food security and water resource sustainability. Meanwhile, with the rapid development of urbanization and increasing population aging, the high‐temperature vulnerability in China experienced explosive increases. We use historical observations and climate model simulations to quantify the duration, frequency, intensity, and severe heatwave days at regional scales from 1961 to 2100, with consideration of different local antecedent heat conditions at a given station. All regions are projected to experience longer and more frequent heatwaves rather than more intense consecutive heatwaves, while the southern regions will suffer more severe heatwave days compared to those during the historical period. The increased rates of heatwave characteristics are different under a set of future pathways of societal development. The intensification of all heatwave characteristics will be mitigated if the warming is limited below 2°C. Key Points: The increased rates and trends in duration and frequency are more evident than those in intensityThe southern coastal area is projected to suffer more severe heatwave days than other regionsThe acceleration of all heatwave characteristics is projected to slow down in the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP1‐2.6) scenario after 2040 [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei (BTH) region has encountered increasingly severe and frequent haze pollution during recent decades. This study reveals that El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has distinctive impacts on interannual variations of haze pollution over BTH in early and late winters. The impact of ENSO on the haze pollution over the BTH is strong in early winter, but weak in late winter. In early winter, ENSO-related sea surface temperature anomalies generate double-cell Walker circulation anomalies, with upward motion anomalies over the tropical central-eastern Pacific and tropical Indian Ocean, and downward motion anomalies over the tropical western Pacific. The ascending motion and enhanced atmospheric heating anomalies over the tropical Indian Ocean trigger atmospheric teleconnection propagating from the north Indian Ocean to East Asia, and result in the generation of an anticyclonic anomaly over Northeast Asia. The associated southerly anomalies to the west side lead to more serious haze pollution via reducing surface wind speed and increasing low-level humidity and the thermal inversion. The strong contribution of the Indian Ocean heating anomalies to the formation of the anticyclonic anomaly over Northeast Asia in early winter can be confirmed by atmospheric model numerical experiments. In late winter, vertical motion and precipitation anomalies are weak over the tropical Indian Ocean related to ENSO. As such, ENSO cannot induce a clear anticyclonic anomaly over Northeast Asia via atmospheric teleconnection, and thus has a weak impact on the haze pollution over BTH. Further analysis shows that stronger ENSO-induced atmospheric heating anomalies over the tropical Indian Ocean in early winter are partially due to higher mean SST and precipitation there. Significance Statement: There exist large discrepancies regarding the contribution of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events to the wintertime haze pollution over North China. Several studies have indicated that ENSO has a weak impact on the haze pollution over North China. However, some studies have argued that ENSO events can exert impacts on the occurrence of haze pollution over North China. In this study, we present evidence to demonstrate that ENSO has distinctive impacts on interannual variations of the haze pollution over the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei (BTH) region in North China in early and late winters. Specifically, ENSO has a strong impact on the haze pollution over BTH in early winter, whereas the impact of ENSO on the haze pollution over BTH is fairly weak in late winter. Results of this study could reconcile the discrepancy of previous studies about the impact of ENSO on the haze pollution over North China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study investigated the change in precipitation concentration due to global warming based on the output of one experiment (a scenario of 1% CO2 increase per year) from 12 general circulation models provided by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Two different indices were used to describe precipitation concentration: (a) concentration index (CI), which measures the evenness of total precipitation on wet days, and (b) precipitation concentration degree (PCD), which measures the evenness of the annual precipitation distributions over time. We found that widespread increases in CI were distributed over all land areas except for some arid areas, indicating a less uniform distribution of precipitation on wet days in a warming climate caused by CO2 increasing. We also found that the spatial patterns of changes in PCD are complex, with large regional differences. All of the results suggest a global‐scale readjustment of precipitation distribution in magnitude and timing. This kind of readjustment may have significant impacts on climatic and hydrological events and thus cause severe ecological and environmental damage. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As one of the most influential oceanic and atmospheric oscillations in the Earth system, El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has modulated numerous geophysical processes. This is particularly true for the Yangtze River Basin (YRB), which is vulnerable to Asian Monsoon and faces serious hydrological hazards. In this study, the co‐variability between lag–lead precipitation and sea surface temperature anomalies was evaluated utilizing singular value decomposition (SVD) method. Moreover, certain teleconnections between ENSO and streamflow were identified by wavelet methods. In addition, the contribution of related atmospheric variables was revealed by composite analysis. Results indicate that there are strong associations in lag–lead seasons between the wet condition (dry condition) and September–November (December–February) mature ENSO phase. Significant common power and coherence signals between the ENSO indices and the streamflow occur in the 4–8, 8–16 and 16–32 seasonal scales. Meanwhile, the activity cycle of the ENSO indices ahead of streamflow increases from the mid‐lower reaches to the source region. In addition, the Western Pacific Subtropical High is strengthened during the mature ENSO phase. Anomalous sinking motions and divergent water vapour flux occupy the YRB, reducing the precipitation and leading to the dry condition in the source region until the following March–May. On the other hand, ascending movements and abundant water vapour flux coming from northern Pacific, equatorial western Pacific and the Bay of Bengal result in the wet condition in the mid‐lower reaches. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Progressive intensification and proliferation of heat waves impose extensively impacts on entire environment and ecology. The far‐reaching implications of heat waves and the severe future projections emphasize the imperative need to explore the driving factors and their quantitative contribution to heat wave variations. In this study, a multiaspect characteristic of heat waves across China during 1961–2017 is evaluated using excess heat factor. Results showed that the number of events, frequency, duration, and intensity has heterogeneous spatial patterns, with a consistent abrupt transition in 1996–1997. The robust positive correlations between heat wave characteristics and warming sea surface temperature (SST) indicate the association of heat wave with SST anomalies. Except the number of events, the other factors (including the frequency, duration, and intensity) of heat waves are strongly influenced by El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). However, the influences have significant variations from region to region, with the central regions experiencing significant decreases in the frequency, duration, and intensity of heat waves during the simultaneous ENSO phases (El Niño‐La Niña), in comparison with northern and western regions dominated by IOD (positive‐negative) experiencing longer and more frequent heat waves. Particularly, the mild heat waves are more vulnerable to the warming SST modes than severe heat waves. The decrease of heat waves is affected by the convergent winds bringing cold air from the high latitude, while the extensively significant increase of heat waves is controlled by the anomalously sinking motions. Key Points: IOD has more impacts on heat wave characteristics than ENSOMild heat waves are more vulnerable to SST modes than severe heat wavesConvergent winds and anomalous sinking motions affect regional heat wave variations [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Reference evapotranspiration (ET0), which is an indicator of atmospheric evaporation demand over a hypothetical reference surface, is expected to alter along with global climate change. In this study, the changes and driving forces of historical ET0 and its future projections in Xinjiang, China, were comprehensively conducted. The trend analysis revealed that regional ET0 decreased significantly at a rate of −4.1 mm/year2 during 1961–1993 and increased at a rate of 3.4 mm/year2 during 1994–2010. To explore the possible causes, the contributions of major climatic variables to the ET0 trends were derived based on the differential equation method. During 1961–1993, the decreasing trend of ET0 was primarily ascribed to the wind speed. The integrated negative effect from the decrease in wind speed (U) and increase in relative humidity (RH) was more significant than the positive effect from the increase in air temperature (T), resulting in the decrease in ET0. During 1994–2010, combined with increasing T and decreasing RH, the increase in U offset the effect of the net radiation (Rn) decrease and led to an increase in ET0. Future ET0 projections over three periods (2010–2039, 2040–2069, and 2070–2099, which are named as 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s, respectively) were conducted based on the general circulation models under two representative concentration pathways scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). A continuous increasing trend in ET0 was demonstrated in the 21st century. The increase in ET0 will increase the irrigated water resource consumption and bring new challenge to water resource management in this area. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It has become increasingly important to quantify carbon and water fluxes due to their roles in global warming and climate change, particularly for the agroecosystems. However, the dynamics of carbon and water fluxes have not been clearly recognized in rotation croplands with complex and changeable climate. Here, the variations of net ecosystem productivity (NEP), evapotranspiration (ET) and the water use efficiency (WUE, defined as NEP/ET), and their responses to the environmental factors were investigated in a wheat-maize rotation cropland across the Huaibei Plain of China over 2013–2015. The total average NEP, ET and average WUE respectively were 489.1 gC m-2, 315.8 kgH 2 O m-2, 4.4 gC kg-1H 2 O for wheat and 192.5 gC m-2, 249.0 kgH 2 O m-2, 3.6 gC kg-1H 2 O for maize, implying that wheat season sequestered more CO 2 than maize season. Spring drought and summer flood affected WUE of wheat and maize, respectively. Daily wheat WUE seemed to be more sensitive to changes in photosynthetically active radiation (PAR), vapor pressure deficit (VPD), soil water content (SWC) and canopy conductance (G c). PAR was the dominant factor controlling diurnal dynamics of NEP and ET, while the opposite effect of VPD on NEP was recognized. NEP increasing with PAR was limited by high VPD, which obviously when VPD exceeded 2 kPa during the maize season. Maize NEP was limited with VPD under high solar radiation (> 500 μmol m-2 s-1). WUEs of wheat and maize were negatively related to SWC and G c , and the sensitivity of WUE response to SWC and G c increased with the increase of PAR or VPD range. Sub-diurnal NEP against PAR, VPD or temperature showed clockwise hysteresis but ET against PAR or windspeed showed counter-clockwise hysteresis, and these hystereses were mainly caused by the interplay between evaporative demand and moisture supply, photosynthesis and carbon allocation of the agroecosystems. [Display omitted] • The wheat season sequestered more CO2 than the maize season. • Spring drought and summer flood affected WUE of wheat and maize, respectively. • Wheat WUE seemed to be more sensitive to changes in environmental factors. • PAR was the dominant factor controlling diurnal dynamics of NEP and ET. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding climate change impacts on hydrological regime and assessing future water supplies are essential to effective water resources management and planning, which is particularly true for the Tibetan Plateau (TP), one of the most vulnerable areas to climate change. In this study, future climate change in the TP was projected for 2041–2060 by a high‐resolution regional climate model, RegCM4, under 3 representative concentration pathways (RCPs): 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5. Response of all key hydrological elements, that is, evapotranspiration, surface run‐off, baseflow, and snowmelt, to future climate in 2 typical catchments, the source regions of Yellow and Yangtze rivers, was further investigated by the variable infiltration capacity microscale hydrological model incorporated with a 2‐layer energy balance snow model and a frozen soil/permafrost algorithm at a 0.25° ×0.25° spatial scale. The results reveal that (a) spatial patterns of precipitation and temperature from RegCM4 agree fairly well with the data from China Meteorological Forcing Dataset, indicating that RegCM4 well reproduces historical climatic information and thus is reliable to support future projection; (b) precipitation increase by 0–70% and temperature rise by 1–4 °C would occur in the TP under 3 RCPs. A clear south‐eastern–north‐western spatial increasing gradient in precipitation would be seen. Besides, under RCP8.5, the peak increase in temperature would approach to 4 °C in spring and autumn in the east of the TP; (c) evapotranspiration would increase by 10–60% in 2 source regions due to the temperature rise, surface run‐off and baseflow in higher elevation region would experience larger increase dominantly due to the precipitation increase, and streamflow would display general increases by more than 3% and 5% in the source regions of Yellow and Yangtze rivers, respectively; (d) snowmelt contributes 11.1% and 16.2% to total run‐off in the source regions of Yellow and Yangtze rivers, respectively, during the baseline period. In the source region of Yangtze River, snowmelt run‐off would become more important with increase of 17.5% and 18.3%, respectively, under RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 but decrease of 15.0% under RCP8.5. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Future changes in reference evapotranspiration (ET0) are of increasing importance in assessing the potential impacts on hydrology and water resources systems of more pronounced climate change. This study assesses the applicability of the Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) in projecting ET0, and investigates the seasonal and spatial patterns of future ET0 based on general circulation models (GCMs) across the Haihe River Basin. The results indicate that SDSM can downscale ET0 well in term of different basin-averaged measures for the HadCM3 and CGCM3 GCMs. HadCM3 has a much superior capability in capturing inter-annual variability compared to CGCM3 and thus is chosen as the sole model to assess the changes in future ET0. There are three homogeneous sub-regions of the Haihe River Basin: Northwest, Northeast and Southeast. Change points are detected at around 2050 and 2080 under the A2 and B2 scenarios, respectively. The Northwest is revealed to have a slight to strong increase in ET0, while the Northeast and the Southeast tend to experience a pattern change from decrease to increase in ET0. EDITOR M.C. Acreman ASSOCIATE EDITOR J. Thompson [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The statistical characteristics of precipitation on the daily resolution play an important role not only in the risk assessment of floods and droughts but also in the land use management. In this study, spatial and temporal patterns of the precipitation concentration in the Yangtze River Basin are investigated by using three indices, i.e. precipitation concentration index (CI), precipitation concentration degree (PCD) and precipitation concentration period (PCP). Based on meteorological data of 147 stations for the period of 1960-2008, non-parametric trend analysis and wavelet transformation analysis are employed to detect the temporal variation of these indices. Spatial variability of precipitation concentration indices and their trends are analysed and demonstrated with the help of GIS tools. The results indicate the following: (i) The high precipitation CI values mainly distribute in the middle region of the Yangtze River Basin, whereas the lower and lowest CI values are found in the lower and upper regions, respectively. A roughly east-west gradient for PCD value and PCP value varies from 0.26 to 0.77 and from 123 to 197, respectively. (ii) The analysis results of precipitation CI trends for different periods (i.e. recent 40, 30 and 20 years) show that the middle region of the Yangtze River Basin experienced a transition from decreasing precipitation CI to increasing precipitation CI during the last two decades, although the decreasing long-term trends in the precipitation CI are not significant in most areas during the period of 1960-2008. (iii) The upper basin, middle basin and lower basin are, respectively, dominated by the significant decreasing, increasing and no significant trends in PCD. A dominance of insignificant PCP trends is observed in the entire basin during 1960-2008 despite that a few areas in the upper region are characterized by significant decreasing trends. (iv) Interdecadal oscillations can be found for three precipitation indices, but with no constant periodicity. Furthermore, good positive correlations have been detected between precipitation CI and PCD, whereas insignificant correlation coefficients of PCP with precipitation are common in the basin. The results can provide beneficial reference to water resource and eco-environment and mitigation to flood or drought hazards in the Yangtze River Basin for policymakers and stakeholders. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Quantitative evaluation of the effect of climate variability and human activities on runoff is of great importance for water resources planning and management in terms of maintaining the ecosystem integrity and sustaining the society development. In this paper, hydro-climatic data from four catchments (i.e. Luanhe River catchment, Chaohe River catchment, Hutuo River catchment and Zhanghe River catchment) in the Haihe River basin from 1957 to 2000 were used to quantitatively attribute the hydrological response (i.e. runoff) to climate change and human activities separately. To separate the attributes, the temporal trends of annual precipitation, potential evapotranspiration (PET) and runoff during 1957-2000 were first explored by the Mann-Kendall test. Despite that only Hutuo River catchment was dominated by a significant negative trend in annual precipitation, all four catchments presented significant negative trend in annual runoff varying from −0.859 (Chaohe River) to −1.996 mm a−1 (Zhanghe River). Change points in 1977 and 1979 are detected by precipitation-runoff double cumulative curves method and Pettitt's test for Zhanghe River and the other three rivers, respectively, and are adopted to divide data set into two study periods as the pre-change period and post-change period. Three methods including hydrological model method, hydrological sensitivity analysis method and climate elasticity method were calibrated with the hydro-climatic data during the pre-change period. Then, hydrological runoff response to climate variability and human activities was quantitatively evaluated with the help of the three methods and based on the assumption that climate and human activities are the only drivers for streamflow and are independent of each other. Similar estimates of anthropogenic and climatic effects on runoff for catchments considered can be obtained from the three methods. We found that human activities were the main driving factors for the decline in annual runoff in Luanhe River catchment, Chaohe River catchment and Zhanghe River catchment, accounting for over 50% of runoff reduction. However, climate variability should be responsible for the decrease in annual runoff in the Hutuo River catchment. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climatic variability and human activities are the two primary factors that affect basin hydrology, and thus quantification of their effects is of great importance for water resources management and sustainable development at a catchment scale. In this study, the writers investigated the long-term trends and abrupt changes in hydroclimatic variables, including precipitation, potential evapotranspiration (PET), and runoff, from 1957-2000 in the Hutuo River Basin by the nonparametric Mann-Kendall test and the precipitation-runoff double cumulative curve method. A two-parameter hydrological model and linear regression method were employed to separate and quantify the effects of climatic variability and human activities on runoff. The results are the following: (1) significant downward trends for annual precipitation and annual runoff were detected by the Mann-Kendall test at a 99% confidence level, (2) a change in the gradient of precipitation-runoff double cumulative curves and an abrupt change in runoff series can both be found in 1979, indicating that the relationship between precipitation and runoff has changed; as a result, the annual runoff from 1957-2000 can be divided into two periods termed the baseline (1957-1979) and human-induced (1980-2000) periods, and (3) the climate variability was the primary cause for the decrease in annual runoff from the baseline to the human-induced period, despite certain effects of human activities on the change with respect to annual runoff. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, spatial and temporal patterns of changes in extreme temperature are investigated by using 15 extreme temperature indices based on 32 meteorological stations data for the period 1960-2009 in Haihe River basin, with the help of simple linear regression method, Mann-Kendall trend test and GIS technique. Results show that all temperature extreme indices present significant change expect TXx with a non-significant positive trend in the Haihe basin. In almost whole basin, FD, ID, TN10p, TX10p, CSDI and DTR displayed significant negative trend. While SU25, GSL, TMAXmean, TMINmean, TNn, TN90p, TX90p and WSDI exhibited significant positive trend. The slopes for indices related to low temperature are larger than that of indices related to high temperature. Furthermore, the trends for TN90p, TX90p and WSDI were respectively almost opposite to TN10p, TX10p and CSDI in the Haihe River basin. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Although soil moisture (SM) is an important constraint factor of evapotranspiration (ET), the majority of the satellite-driven ET models do not include SM observations, especially the SM at different depths, since its spatial and temporal distribution is difficult to obtain. Based on monthly three-layer SM data at a 0.25° spatial resolution determined from multi-sources, we updated the original Priestley Taylor–Jet Propulsion Laboratory (PT-JPL) algorithm to the Priestley Taylor–Soil Moisture Evapotranspiration (PT-SM ET) algorithm by incorporating SM control into soil evaporation (Es) and canopy transpiration (T). Both algorithms were evaluated using 17 eddy covariance towers across different biomes of China. The PT-SM ET model shows increased R2, NSE and reduced RMSE, Bias, with more improvements occurring in water-limited regions. SM incorporation into T enhanced ET estimates by increasing R2 and NSE by 4% and 18%, respectively, and RMSE and Bias were respectively reduced by 34% and 7 mm. Moreover, we applied the two ET algorithms to the whole of China and found larger increases in T and Es in the central, northeastern, and southern regions of China when using the PT-SM algorithm compared with the original algorithm. Additionally, the estimated mean annual ET increased from the northwest to the southeast. The SM constraint resulted in higher transpiration estimate and lower evaporation estimate. Es was greatest in the northwest arid region, interception was a large fraction in some rainforests, and T was dominant in most other regions. Further improvements in the estimation of ET components at high spatial and temporal resolution are likely to lead to a better understanding of the water movement through the soil–plant–atmosphere continuum. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Evidence that the pan evaporation or reference evapotranspiration (ET0) as the indicator of atmospheric evaporation capability have decreased along with the continuous increase in temperature over the past decades (coined as 'evaporation paradox') has been reported worldwide. Here, we provide a nationwide investigation of spatiotemporal change of ET0 using meteorological data from 602 stations with the updated data (1961-2011). In addition, we explore the trigger mechanism by quantitative assessment on the contribution of climatic factors to ET0 change based on a differential equation method. In despite of different shift points regionally, our results suggest that the ET0 generally present decadal variations rather than monotonic response to climate change reported in previous studies. The significant decrease in net radiation dominate the decrease in ET0 before early 1990s in southern regions, while observed near-surface wind speed is the primary contributor to the variations of ET0 for the rest regions during the same periods. The enhancements of atmospheric evaporation capability after early 1990s are driven primarily by recent relative humidity limitation in China. From a continental scale view, as highly correlating with to Pacific Decadal Oscillation, the shift behaviors of ET0 is likely an episodic phenomenon of the ocean-atmosphere interaction in earth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Accounting for over 70% of global water withdrawals, irrigation plays a crucial role in the development of agriculture. Irrigation water requirement ( WIRR ) will be influenced by climate change due to the alteration in soil water balances, evapotranspiration, physiology and phenology under global warming. This is particularly true for rice, a high water-consuming crop. Therefore, exploring the impact of climate change on rice WIRR is of great significance for the sustainable utilization of water resources and food security. This paper aims to investigate spatially and temporally the responses of rice WIRR to climate change in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River (MLRYR), which is one of the most important rice farming districts in China. With the help of the specially developed rice growing period calculation method and water balance model coupled with rice irrigation scheduling, the impacts of climate change on WIRR for early rice, late rice and single cropping rice during the historical (1961–2012) and future (2011–2100) periods were evaluated. Meanwhile, to consider the uncertainty from climate models in future projection, four GCMs under RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emission scenarios from the 5th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) were employed as the input of the water balance model. The results indicate the following: (1) The days of growing period ( DGP ) for all three types of rice display shortened trends in historical and most future periods. However, in the middle region of the MLRYR, the DGP for early rice and late rice would increase by up to10 days in 2080s under RCP8.5 scenario. (2) Over the past 50 years, the WIRR significantly decreased by 1.58 and 2.10 mm yr −1 for late rice and single cropping rice, respectively. While for early rice, the WIRR only slightly decreased by 0.13 mm yr −1 . (3) Projected future WIRR would increase for all three types of rice in the whole region under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios (up to 100 mm), but decrease for single cropping and late rice in the southeast region (up to 40 mm). The results can provide beneficial reference and comprehensive information to understand the impact of climate change on the agricultural water balance and improve the regional strategy for water resource utilization and agricultural management in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Magnitude of the sub-diurnal AET - VPD hysteresis varies with biomes and climates. • Variation of the hysteresis is mostly attributable to evaporative demand limitation. • Soil moisture supply limitation amplifies the hysteresis during the dry season. • We provide some novel features to diagnose limiting mechanisms of the hysteresis. Hysteresis between sub-diurnal actual evaporation (AET) (or one of its components, transpiration) and vapor pressure deficit (VPD) at the species or individual ecosystem level has been extensively studied, but the global variation and seasonal variability of this hysteresis across biomes and climates is yet to be fully explored and the limiting mechanisms remain unclear. We hypothesize that the sub-diurnal AET - VPD hysteresis results from the interplay between evaporative demand and soil moisture supply limitations. To test our hypothesis, we quantify the sub-diurnal AET - VPD hysteresis across a broad range of biomes and climates based on the observations from the 89 FLUXNET sites (703 site-years) across the globe. We find that the magnitude of hysteresis varies with biomes and climates and is mostly attributable to evaporative demand limitation in all ten sampled biomes. In seasonally dry locations, however, low soil moisture availability amplifies the hysteresis during the dry season. Sensitivity analysis using a hydraulic model suggests that most ecosystems exhibiting seasonal drought display a more isohydric behavior during the dry season, while shift toward a more anisohydric response during the wet season. Our findings have important implications for understanding sub-diurnal dynamics between vegetation and its surrounding environment, reducing uncertainties in AET simulation at fine spatial and temporal scales, and improving understanding of the ecosystem response to hydrologic stress. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]