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This paper discusses the theories of and the relationships between the direct and indirect methods of standardizing death rates for males, females, and persons. The author notes that the standardization procedures have two objectives, to eliminate the disturbing influences of varying age and sex distributions, and to provide reliable indications of the overall comparative mortalities of different groups. The author also points out that the Registrar General's methods and publications have always fulfilled the objectives in a thorough and practical manner.

This paper studies the design effect of counting rules, for linking deaths to housing units where they are enumerated in the survey, on the sampling variance of dual system and single system estimators of death registration completeness. It investigates estimators based on conventional rules that uniquely link each death to a single housing unit as well as estimators based on multiplicity rules which permit deaths to be linked to more than one housing unit. Sampling variance formulas are derived containing parameters that reflect the efficiency of the counting rule. Estimates of these parameters for different counting rules are compared utilizing information that was collected in a mortality survey experiment. Finally, the design of a national death registration test is considered and the sample size implications of different counting rules are compared. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The present paper is an attempt to evaluate the registered data on Canadian Indians collected by the Department of Indian Affairs and Northern Development and to prepare vital rates for 1960-1970 using the adjusted data. A cursory examination of registered data for the purpose of developing various demographic indices and for making future estimates of population indicates certain anomalies that call for a careful appraisal of the data. The main problem is the inconsistency in the reporting of births, due largely to the late registration of births. One plausible reason for late registration may be the increased outward movement of Indians from their reserves. Indirect methods are used to adjust the number of births and infant deaths reported annually since 1960. On the basis of the adjusted data, vital rates for the Canadian Indians are calculated for the period 1960-1970. The crude death rate decreased from 10.9 in 1960 to 7.5 in 1970. The infant mortality rate registered a drastic decline, from 81.5 deaths per 1,000 births in 1960 to 34.9 in 1970. During this same time period the birth rate also declined, from 46.5 to 37.2. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The construction of life tables is often marred by one or more of the following restrictions: (1) assumptions that are either unjustifiable or of questionable generality; (2) rough approximations; (3) exacting data requirements. This paper recommends instead a simple method which regards the force of mortality as constant within each age interval. The reasoning is readily comprehensible and all life table functions are easily calculated from the age-specific death rates without any need for further assumptions, approximations, or data. Furthermore, this method produces numerical results that are close to those obtained by other methods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The simplest measure of the mortality experienced by children during the first year of life, for any one calendar year, is obtained by calculating the ratio of the number of infantile deaths in that calendar year to the number of births in the same calendar year. This ratio is called a crude death rate and is published annually for Australia by the Commonwealth Statistician index of infantile mortality. An alternative method for calculation of this index has been put forward by V. G. Valaoras in a paper in Population Studies, December 1950. Dr Valaoras properly points out that the simple method described above is defective, mainly because it fails to refer the infant deaths to the appropriate group of births from which the deaths arose. The first defect is not important when births are being maintained at a fairly constant level. It is, in such circumstances, not unreasonable to assume that births are evenly distributed throughout each calendar year. Recently, however, birth rates have been subject to severe variations and the distribution of births during each calendar year has been very uneven.

Model life tables are commonly used for estimating various parameters of mortality of populations in developing countries with limited data. The application of the models is based on the assumption that the age- mortality pattern of the population under consideration resembles one of the life tables in the models. The analysis in this paper tests the validity of this assumption for developing countries with data usable for the purpose. The major conclusion is that infant mortality in the populations analyzed is higher than predicted by the models corresponding to the levels of adult mortality of these populations. The observed discrepancy is ascribed to the selectivity involved in the construction of model life tables, which are primarily derived from the historical experience of Western countries. Populations in the currently developing countries apparently differ in the process of mortality change from those used in the models. Though the analysis is limited to a few countries and may not necessarily be true for all the less developed countries, it suggests the need for caution in the use of conventional model life tables. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Even though a single summary index of mortality can never replace the set of age-specific death rates, it has been found to be extremely useful for a wide variety of purposes. Such indexes are generally one of two types: aggregative indexes, such as directly standardized rates which reflect absolute differences between corresponding age-specific mortality rates; and average of relatives indexes which reflect proportional differences between those rates. The choice of index depends upon the purposes for which it is to be used, and is important as different indexes can produce very different results. While directly standardized rates are widely used, they depend upon the selection of an appropriate standard population and give disproportionately heavy weight to the high ages. Average of relatives indexes give equal weight to all ages, but are infrequently used as no index of that type has gained wide acceptability. This paper recommends the use of the geometric mean of the age-specific mortality rates as such an index, and shows that this index is readily calculable, unbiased, needs no standard population, is directly comparable to all other indexes so calculated, and accurately reflects exponential mortality patterns. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper an attempt is made to describe the pattern of declining mortality in British Guiana between 1911 and 1960. Specifically we identify the disease-specific mortality rates whose declines contributed most to the overall improvement, we consider the possibility that changing economic circumstances may have contributed to the decline in mortality, and we survey the improvements in public health facilities which occurred during the period. Broadly our conclusion is that improvements in public health facilities and not economic advances were responsible for the dramatic decline in mortality which was experienced. Before 1940 these advances took the form of improvements in the quality of the country's water supplies, in methods of disposing of waste, and in medical facilities especially in the colony's sugar estates. In addition, there was an advance in the dissemination of information with respect to pre-and post-natal care. In the postwar period British Guiana's famous D.D.T. experiment was the most important reason death rates continued to fall. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

For a clear understanding of the inherent changes in mortality with advance in age, it is necessary to observe the experience of generations rather than the cross-section of period experience. In fact, the latter may produce a misleading picture as can be illustrated in the case of tuberculosis. Period experience pointed to a rise in tuberculosis death rates with advance in age, whereas generation experience indicates a decline with aging. The present paper proposes the study of mortality changes of all generations existing at one period to a subsequent period. Some characteristics and trends in the changes in generation mortality of white males and white females since 1900 are discussed. It is pointed out, in particular, that since World War II white males have been experiencing a rapidly increasing rise in generation mortality with the approach of midlife. A comparison of generation mortality changes from 1950 to 1960 among countries of traditionally low mortality shows that only males in the other English-speaking countries may be undergoing the same experience as white males in the United States upon the approach of midlife. It is not evident in the Scandinavian countries and the Netherlands and in the other countries. The reason for these differences is not apparent. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents the results of an analysis of the major causes of death and their relative importance in various age groups of children admitted to Mulago Hospital over two years. The shortcoming of such results is that they are not representative of the deaths in the community. However, they provide needed information before country-wide vital statistics become available. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper discusses the formal characteristics of spatial diffusion of demographic change from a center into a region. A procedure proposed for testing hypotheses concerning its empirical occurrence is applied to ascertaining occurrence and modalities of spatial diffusion of demographic change in two regions of the USSR centered at Moscow and Leningrad. Evidences of diffusion of fertility declines were found in both regions, of death rate declines in the Leningrad but not in the Moscow region, and of increases in divorce rates in the Moscow but riot in the Leningrad region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Death rate variations for the United Kingdom and the United States are spatially compared by means of maps. The data mapped include death rates from all causes, and infant mortality. In the United Kingdom, the association between high death rates and areas of industrialization, exploitation, and dense population is very marked. Such an association is somewhat less definite in the United States where the high rates associate more easily with areas of poor socio-economic circumstances such as Indian reservations, Spanish-American districts, and most particularly, the high-proportion Negro areas of the South. In both countries, however, longevity in rural areas and in urban places of limited industry is likely to be greater than in areas not having these attributes. The quality, of biostatistics in the United Kingdom has been superior to the United States. The recently launched National Health Survey, however, promises to greatly improve the biostatistic position of the United States. The special contribution of medical geography is the mapping technique and the interpretations which potentially it allows. At the national scale the sensitivity limits of such an approach must be recognized and there can be no simple explanation of apparent mortality patterns. Such maps as these are designed to focus on areas where detailed studies may be of benefit in substantiating cause-and-effect relationships. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article focuses on the intrinsic rate of natural increase and the dominant root of the projection matrix. The purpose of this paper is to discuss empirically the approach to stability, to illustrate several different ways of calculating the intrinsic rate of natural increase, and to examine how these calculations are related to one another. The first method of calculation is directly from the definition of the intrinsic rate as the annual rate of ultimate increase which results from the persistent application of present birth and death rates at each age. Having the advantage of a computer at your elbow you can do what would have been difficult for Lotka: continue population projection in five-year intervals through several centuries. The uniform rate at which the population increases at the end of that time is its present intrinsic rate of natural increase. One need merely find out the number of the population in any age group after 64 periods of five years, say, and then find the number at the end of 65 periods. One-fifth of the logarithm of the ratio of the second of these figures to the first equals the intrinsic rate.

This paper demonstrates the danger of excessive reliance on an occupational mortality index such as the Standardised Mortality Ratio. An index can be considered as a valid estimate of a group's relative mortality only if the specific mortality ratios which constitute the index are not significantly different. The Standardised Mortality Ratio is shown to be equivalent to the maximum likelihood estimator of a common specific mortality ratio. It follows that the standard error of the Standardised Mortality Ratio is smaller than the standard error of any other mortality ratio.

The article focuses on demography of a stationary population. It is well known in economic theory that average income may depend on the site of the population. The whole theory of optimum population deals with this point. Different authors have put a different emphasis on the relative importance of an increase in the proportion of aged dependants, and a decrease in the proportion of child dependants. The relative importance of these two effects has been the subject of many demographic studies, concerning the relative size of the three age groups: children, members of the labor force and old people. The problem of interrelation between death rates, age structure and average income is usually approached by considering the relation of death rates to the size of the three primary age groups in the population: children, labor force and the aged. The assumption that total production depends only on labor input may be combined with different views regarding other factors of production. The changes in death rates are accompanied by compensating changes in birth rates.

The article discusses about the comment made by the author about S.A. Meegama's paper "Malaria eradication and its effects on mortality level." One of the point made by Mr. Meegama was the estimates contained in his earlier study attribute only 40% of the post-war death rates to the near-eradication of malaria, leaving the balance of the fall to be explained by additional factors such as advances in other kinds of public health measures, and in levels of nutrition. Since the focus of his paper was on measuring the consequences of malaria eradication, this further explanation was not attempted. The second point concerns statistical methodology. If there was in fact a substantial correlation between the geographical distribution of the "non-malarial" post-war health expenditures and the original prevalence of malaria, and if these other health expenditures had a strong negative effect on mortality, then the model author used would Yield coefficients showing an upward bias. The author argued, after examining his evidence carefully, that Mr. Meegama has established neither of the above mentioned point.

The article focuses on an examination of urban mortality using age-adjusted death rates. Authors Kent P. Schwirian and Anthony J. LaGreca attempted to assess the relative impact of demographic, environmental, and social organizational factors upon differential death rates. Their data led them to conclude that mortality may be explained largely in terms of subarea differences in age structure, social status levels, and housing conditions. With respect to ecological theory per se, and more specifically the ecosystem frame of reference, Schwirian and LaGreca have made a significant contribution. Prior to their analysis there was little research on the impact of ecological variables on mortality, especially within the perspective of neoclassical human ecology. The paper aims to demonstrate that the use of a crude, rather than an age-adjusted, death rate at best confounds the theoretical issues of the causal model, and leaves unanswered any question concerning the precise empirical impact that environmental and social variables have on urban mortality.

It is well known and emphasized by the Erroll Committee itself that "the picture …, particularly over the last 20 ,ears, is of rising overall consumption, accompanied by an increase in alcoholism death rates and in offences of drunkenness…", and among the young in the last few years not only a rise in drunkenness offences but afro in the rates of alcoholism (Glatt 1972). Further research in this field is obviously necessary, but from the public health point of view one may seriously question whether this is the best time to recommend a marked relaxation of licensing laws, and increase the availability of drink, venues, hours and opportunities for drinking, for all age group; thus making drink more widely available and socially more acceptable. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents statistical evidence, which seems to be conclusive, that there exists a particular pattern of mortality in Ceylon, India and Pakistan where, contrary to general experience, female mortality is higher than that of the males. The sex ratios of the enumerated population in these three countries are among the highest in the world, and the age pattern of the sex ratios is such that they increase from childhood to adulthood to the old ages. Abnormally high sex ratios and selective migration cannot account for this particular pattern, but there is evidence of a higher degree of under-enumeration of females than males. The main responsible factor, however, seems to be higher female mortality, in the ages of maternity as well as in childhood. This shows the need for a regional or local approach to some demographic problems. In this case, for instance, model life tables based on average international experience are not representative. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents the results on the construction of a Working Life Table for males in Ghana, 1960. Comparisons of working life tables for Ghana and other industrialized countries such as the United States, England and Wales are made. In addition, some aspects of the uses of working life tables are considered, particularly the examination of annual losses from the actual working population and the factors determining the pattern of losses. It was estimated that out of the total number who left the working population of Ghana in 1960, 89.9% left on account of death and only 10.1% left on account of causes other than death. The total loss rate for Ghana in 1960 amounted to 23.3 per 1000 male working population; made up of rates 20.9 per 1000 for losses due to death and 2.4 per 1000 for losses due to retirement and other causes respectively. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The numerous sources of variation among life tables are reducible to two. This paper finds expressions for these separately. The first source of variation is the rate of increase attributed to the observed population. A given underlying continuous curve of mortality by age will show somewhat different age-specific death rates according to the rate of increase of the population subject to the given mortality. At ages beyond about 15, for a given underlying mortality, the age-specific rates observed will be lower the more rapid the increase. Conversely, to infer the stationary age-specific rates from observed rates a larger quantity must be added the greater the increase to which the observed population is subject. The second source of difference is the form of the curve put through the (discrete) l[sub x], the number living to age x, to integrate and find [sub n]L[sub x], the number in the stationary population from age x to x + n. Some considerations are presented on the choice which must be made on each of these two matters, the life table being fully specified to the last decimal place once those choices are made. Finally, a recommended procedure for making life tables is provided, covering special devices for the early and terminal ages, using a new formula (6) which provides more rapid iteration for the ages from 5 to 80. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article discusses the implications of various family-size averages in the Philippines. The figures presented with this paper depict graphically the effect of various approximate family-size averages for the country. The projections upon which the figures are based were derived from age and sex data from the 1970 census, and fertility data from the 1968 National Demographic Survey conducted by the Bureau of the Census and Statistics and the University of the Philippines Population Institute. Longevity and death-rate adjustments were based on past Philippine trends. Data processing and printout were accomplished by the U.S. Bureau of the Census, International Demographic Statistics Center. The attached figures could be used to give some indication of the implications of various family size averages for Philippine population growth. It can be seen that the population structure of a persistent four-child avenge more closely approximates the structure of India. That of the two-child family is more similar to Japan in the short run or to Sweden over the long term.

Rates of natural increase in the Philippines since 1945 have been among the most rapid in the world. Mindanao Island has absorbed a substantial amount of the resulting population growth. This paper estimates fertility and mortality rates and their trends for what may be called the North Mindanao Region, which grew at the annual rate of 3.12 per cent between 1939 and 1960. Underreporting makes the vital registration data of north Mindanao, inadequate for calculating fertility and mortality ratios. The crude birth rate for the Philippines is estimated by many demographers, including the present writer, at near 50 births per thousand persons of the general population. From data furnished by a Research Institute for Mindanao Culture sample survey in 1959, the present writer found a crude birth rate for Misamis Oriental Province of 47.7 births per 1,000 persons Eventually, high birth rates will of themselves generate effective pressures, in the presence of lowered death rates, for restricting family size.

A detailed analysis of survey data collected in 1961-1962 for a sample of 4200 families in central East Pakistan produced consistent and reasonable estimates of birth and death rates for the preceding decade. Extremely high levels of infant and child mortality declined noticeably in the period 1952-1961. Age-specific birth rates to married women also decreased in the decade for women over the age of 19, while a small increase was recorded for married women aged 15 to 19. During the 1950s total marital fertility declined about one-fifth. Birth rates remained high in 1960 according to these estimates, but there is reason to anticipate further reductions in birth rates, particularly among older women. To improve under- standing of the determinants of fertility and to aid in the formulation of policy to cope with population trends, statistical analysis must increasingly consider information on families over time. Retrospective household survey data may provide the empirical base for this line of inquiry. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A series of computer-simulation models relating mortality level to fertility behavior and to rates of natural increase assuming that couples made use of a perfect means of birth control, that they wanted to be highly certain of having at least one son survive to the father's 65th birthday, and that all women were biologically capable of having the same number of children were reported earlier. A model identical to one presented earlier but assuming women to be of variable fecundity is presented here; the results are quite similar. Also, the results of models assuming that parents want to be highly certain of at least two surviving children regardless of sex are compared with models assuming parental desire to be highly certain of at least one surviving son. At high levels of mortality the rates of natural increase are quite similar. When mortality is at intermediate to medium-low levels, the two-surviving-children model shows a lower rate of natural increase than the surviving-son model. At very low levels of mortality, such as now experienced by the most advanced nations, the two-surviving-children model manifests a higher rate of natural increase than the surviving-son model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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The Western world has experienced several unexpected demographic changes in recent years: an accelerated fall in death rates, a sharp rise in birth rates and a sharp rise in marriage rates. This last phenomenon has attracted less attention than the baby boom which it has helped to cause. Yet something of a revolution seems to have occurred in marriage patterns. In several countries there has been a shift toward earlier and more universal marriage which has no parallel in the period for which statistical records exist. To what extent have different socio-conomic groups participated in this change in marriage patterns. The changes have been far more pronounced in urban areas and in the more highly educated groups than in the rural areas and among the less educated. This article deals with the marriage patterns of groups distinguished by certain economic characteristics. Data relating to Sweden, Australia and Switzerland are analyzed. In the case of Sweden and Australia the data has been available with the distribution of the different groups by age and marital status. From these data the percentage ever married in each age group can be computed, that is, the percentage married, widowed or divorced. The Swiss Statistical Office tabulates marriages by the economic status of the bridegroom.

The main Purpose of this note is to clear up a misunderstanding contained in Mr. S.A.Meegama's recent paper, "Malaria Eradication and its Effects on Mortality Levels," concerning the implications of an earlier investigation of the author. The course of mortality in Ceylon since the Second World War is a famous example of the rapid declines in death rates that have recently been achieved, mainly by Public health measures, in so many tropical countries. Mr. Meegama seeks to show that the reduction in malaria was not responsible for all of the decline in mortality that took place in Ceylon, and in particular not for the whole of the spectacular fall which took place from 1946 to 1947, when the national crude death rate (CDR) fell from 19.8 to 14.0. Moreover, a further development of the regression technique led to the conclusion that the effects of eradication on mortality "had been substantially fully realized" by 1949. This implies that the subsequent fall in the national CDR that took place from 1950 to 1960 was due entirely to increases in the autonomous factors, apart from the effect of changes in the age distribution brought about by the changing birth rate.

Following the method of construction of current life tables, abridged divorce tables are presented for U.S. females for the year 1960. In the construction of the tables, mortality factor has not been considered. An index of marital disruption has been defined. It is seen that a married female aged 20 had a chance of 29 in 100 of becoming divorced during her lifetime, while her chance of falling a victim to divorce during the child bearing span was 25 in 100. A married female aged 20, could look forward to 25 years of uninterrupted married life during the reproductive span. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article presents the author's comments on the paper Population and Economic Growth, by E. E. Hagen which argues on whether birth rates depend on death rates. According to Hagen's hypothesis, birth rates depend on death rates but that birth rate and size of family calculus is imbedded in unconscious motives relating to sex and family inculcated in children during their first six years seems to be an obvious oversimplification. The author argued that the hypothesis ignores the fact that many children are unwanted in the particular sense that they would not be born if birth control or abortion were readily available. In Japan, as pregnancy rates have not declined significantly, it seems clear that the drop in the Japanese birth rate from 34.3 in 1947 to 17.2 in 1957 can only be attributed to the legalization and widespread utilization of abortion. There are evidences that explain the lag between the fall in death and birth rates. First, the birth rate first declined among those with higher income, who obviously were among the first with access to birth control information. Secondly, the great reduction in the differential between the birth rates of those with high and low incomes that has recently taken place coincides with evidence from a recent sample survey that 90 per cent of fertile white married couples now use some form of birth control. And, thirdly, the fact that very large families, five children and over, have declined all through the sharp postwar rise in birth rates appears only capable of explanation in terms of increasing availability of birth control.

The article presents comment of the author on an article titled "The Social Effects of Aviation," by sociologist Wilham F. Ogburn's, published in the June 1948 issue of the journal "American Sociological Review." The author states that Ogburn's believes that best predictions in social trends can be achieved by breaking down a problem into its constituent elements, then making quantitative studies of trends within these constituent elements and finally attempting the soundest combination of these trends for predictive purposes. This same general method is usual in attempting to predict future population figures, by studying trends of birthrates, death rates and migration rates and by calculating what population totals will result from the combination of the most likely values for each of these constituent factors. In contrast with this approach, the present author has been exploring leads provided by such sociologists as Raymond Pearl, Simon Kuznets, Alice Davis and Stuart Chaplin. All of them have pointed out the fact that social change has shown marked tendencies to conform to two types of mathematical trends namely, logistic surges and continuously accelerating curves.

The article discusses some ways in which nature deals with overcrowding in animal species to reflect in the world human population explosion. According to the author, the growth rate of microorganisms accelerates exponentially and declines when toxic metabolic products such as acids or alcohol accumulate. Another findings note that food and predators are the controlling factors in limiting populations for mammals other than man. He emphasizes that population growth depends only on the difference between birth rate and death rate.

The article presents a reply to the comment made on the on the paper "Malaria eradication and its effects on mortality levels." As the author had emphasized earlier, the question at issue was not whether Mr. Peter Newman allowed for the contribution of health services to the decline in mortality levels, but whether given the model on which they were based, his estimates were meaningful. In order to establish the existence of such differences, the author drew upon two sources of information. First, there were statements by officials of the medical department, by successive Ministers of Health, and by members of the legislature. Mr. Newman disposes of this evidence by saying: "In Ceylon, as in many other countries, there is a large gap between policy aspirations and policy implementation." Peter Newman acknowledges that health services have an effect on mortality levels. This being so, how were geographical disparities in the death rate eliminated if there were still significant differentials in the level of medical services between the two zones? The fact is that the leveling of death rates reflected not only malaria eradication but also the leveling of other factors which have an impact on mortality levels. It is to this fact that Myrdal refers to when he says that, of the countries in South Asia, Ceylon is the only one where hospital facilities are remarkably evenly distributed among the different districts. Thus it would seem that Mr. Newman unwittingly agrees the author even on this point that facilities were broadly at the same level throughout the country after the immediate post war years.

The difficulties of obtaining credible estimates of vital rates for the black population throughout the entire nineteenth century are overcome in this study. The methodology employed the notion of deviating networks of mortality rates for each general mortality level, which was taken from the United Nations study The Concept of a Stable Population. Period life tables and vital rates for intercensal periods were generated from the new estimates of the black population at each census date. The results of this study are highly compatible both with the life tables for the death-registration states in the twentieth century and the recent Coale and Rives reconstruction for the period from 1880 to 1970 and with several estimates of vital rates previously made for the mid-nineteenth century. This study places the mean life expectancy at birth for the black population during the nineteenth century at about 33.7 years for both sexes. The infant death rate (1000 m0) is shown to have varied between 222 and 237 for females and between 266 and 278 for males. The intrinsic crude death rate centered on 30.4 per thousand during the century, while the birth rate declined from 53.2 early in the century to about 43.8 at the end. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The stable population model is used to establish formulas expressing the effects of mortality change on population growth rates, birth rates, and age composition. The change in the intrinsic growth rate is shown to be quite accurately approximated by the average decline in age-specific death rates between age zero and the mean age at childbearing in the stable population. This change is essentially independent of the initial level of fertility in the population. Changes' in birth rates and age composition are shown to be simple functions of the age pattern of cumulative changes in mortality rates relative to an appropriately defined "neutral" standard. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Registrar General's Decennial Supplement shows that the difference between the death rates for the different social classes has increased over the period from the early 1930s to the 1960s. The Registrar General allocates social class on the basis of the last full-time occupation of the male, Married women are classified by their husband's occupation. The death rates are generally given as crude death rates, the number of deaths per 1,000 or per 100,000 population as appropriate; or as Standardized Mortality Ratios (SMRs), which correct for differences in age structure. The Standardized Mortality Ratio is the actual number of deaths as a percentage of the number expected. Overall the SMR has decreased since 1930. However when the SMRs are considered by social class, the inequality of this improvement shows up. The overall SMRs for coronary heart disease, for lung cancer and for motor vehicle accidents increased from 1951 to 1961, whereas the overall SMR for all causes of death decreased.

The article offers a discussion on various analytic models developed to determine the biological factors of demographic process. According to the author, demography is a study on the variations of economic, psychological, or sociological factors through measuring, explaining, and predicting population characteristics. He cited the stable population theory as an integral equation approach to population problems. The theory emphasized that, the causes of birth and death rates vary by age of models. He explained that in all theories developed, the primary factors in population growth are the age-specific probabilities of death and giving births. Once a stable population is indicated, population could be determined by means of fertility rates.

This article is a reappraisal of the decline of mortality in Ceylon with special reference to the effects of malaria control after 1945. Before the Second World War there was an association between the level of mortality and the prevalence of malaria by district in Ceylon. There was a rapid decline in mortality during the post-war period which was associated with an island-wide malaria control campaign, an extension of the health services, an improvement in nutrition and some economic development. During this period, the previous inter-district differentials in mortality were eliminated and death rates became homogeneous throughout Ceylon. From a regression model correlating the proportional decline in district mortality with the prevalence of malaria, it is estimated that the malaria control program contributed approximately 23 percent or 23 per thousand to the decline in the national crude death rate, and malaria control was the major factor responsible for the elimination of the pre-war variation in district mortality levels. The conclusions drawn from the present analysis are critically compared with the results of previous studies on the mortality decline in Ceylon.

From mortality levels in 1949 similar to those in the United States during the nineteenth century, China claims to have reduced mortality to levels comparable to those in the United States 30 years ago. The data used in this study come from Chinese medical research journals, which are published in Chinese and English for both the Chinese and international medical communities. It may be argued that the vital statistics in such publications are presented for propaganda purposes specifically by boosting morale or setting examples. If the health conditions of town dwellers had improved more rapidly than those of the rural populace, this would tend to bias reporting because hospitals and public health organizations located in urban areas contribute more information than rural areas, despite overall improvement in data collecting. With such a history of high mortality, the 1953 census statistics and concurrent large-scale vital registration surveys present an incredibly low death rate of 17 per thousand. Historically, infant mortality has been more affected by economic and political disruptions in the environment than has adult mortality. Infant mortality, always high in China, rose during the war years to 200 per thousand live births in some rural districts.