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The core of the energy transformation under the carbon-neutral vision is the gradual replacement of high-carbon energy by zero-carbon and low-carbon energy. However, the large-scale deployment of clean energy technology in turn relies on key minerals such as copper, aluminum, zinc, and nickel. Based on this, this paper conducts research on the demand for key minerals in clean energy transition and the role of key minerals in clean energy transition. In particular, this paper calculated the demand for mineral supply for China's carbon neutrality target, and the impact of some mineral resource constraints on the carbon neutrality path. Relevant results can provide a decision-making basis for the future development and utilization of key mineral resources, as well as the implementation of future carbon-neutral goals. • We evaluate the impact of crucial mineral resource on the carbon neutrality path. • Copper's availability greatly affects the adoption of new energy technologies. • Limited resources hinder early carbon capture and storage development. • Negative emission technologies are necessary for China's carbon neutrality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

China has committed to peak carbon emissions by 2030 and become carbon neutral by 2060. Hebei, as a major energy province in China, has more challenging carbon peaking and carbon neutrality targets. Based on the extended STIRPAT model, this paper evaluates the time to peak carbon and post-peak carbon trend changes in Hebei province under different scenarios from 2020 to 2060. Based on the support vector machine model with particle swarm optimization, this paper evaluates the carbon neutral pathways under different scenarios in Hebei province from 2020 to 2060 in terms of forests, croplands, wetlands, grasslands and Carbon Capture, Utilization and Storage (CCUS). The results show that a monotonically flat trend without inflection point, a single-inflection-point plateau-period trend and a multi-inflection-point inverted U-wave trend occur after carbon peaks. Hebei Province can achieve carbon neutrality by 2060 under the policy scenario and the enhanced scenario, and the enhanced scenario is better. Comparing with existing studies, the innovation of this paper is to design different trends of changes after carbon peak, combining carbon absorption and carbon emission, and providing more diversified development paths for carbon neutral strategies through a more integrated perspective and multi-scenario comprehensive analysis. Therefore, In the future, Hebei Province should establish a platform for carbon emissions monitoring and carbon footprint assessment, and set up an early warning and assessment mechanism for carbon peaking, so as to prevent a rebound trend in carbon emissions after peaking. At the same time, it should introduce and develop carbon capture and conversion technologies and promote the low-carbon transformation of the industrial and energy sectors, thereby forcing the early realization of peak carbon. Pay attention to the role of forestry resources in carbon neutrality, increase carbon sink resources such as forests and wetlands, promote the development of CCUS, and enhance the implementation of the policy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates the impact of China's environmental regulations, with a focus on the green credit policy, on green innovation in pursuit of the "carbon peak and carbon neutrality" goal. Given the implementation of the 2012 Green Credit Guidelines, this paper employs the Difference-in-Difference Method (DID) and conducts a quasi-natural experiment to empirically examine the interactions among the central government, local governments, and high-pollution and high-emission enterprises by exploring the impact of green credit policies on green innovation of these enterprises. Relying on 4503 samples of 237 high-pollution and high-emission enterprises listed in the main board in China from 2003 to 2021, this study reveals that the green credit policy can improve green innovation of these enterprises. Specifically, this study explores the detailed mechanism through which the green credit policy enables these enterprises to increase their market concentration and then the monopoly profits, which in turn promotes their green innovative productivity. In addition, this paper also reveals how local governments' political and financial incentives may serve as positive and negative moderating factors, respectively, within the impact mechanism. This study has valuable implications for how to effectively formulate and implement environmental regulations by balancing the interests of the central government, local governments and enterprises. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

China's energy transformation has been accompanied by potential energy security issues. However, the influence degree and driving mechanism behind this phenomenon remain unclear. In this paper, we developed a complex network-based technical resilience assessment framework and quantified both the historical trajectory and the prospective pathway of energy technical resilience in China. We proposed to reveal the relationship between cleaner energy supply and technical resilience by defining three energy technology resilience indicators: energy robustness, energy recovery rate, and energy performance loss. The results showed a consistent decline in energy technical resilience within China, predominantly characterized by an average diminution of 6.83% in energy robustness from 2010 to 2018. Taking carbon neutrality as a target, China's energy system transformation, characterized by increasing clean energy supply, leads to a significant improvement of 7.73% in energy robustness from 2020 to 2060. Conversely, the nationally determined contribution scenario exhibited negligible changes (±0.57%) in energy robustness, while a decline of 2.21% was noted under the business as usual scenario. Furthermore, energy robustness exhibited increments of 12.07%, 2.3%, and 4.17% for every 10% rise in the share of clean energy supply during 2020–2060, demonstrating greater resilience for cleaner energy systems against disruptions, including energy import interruptions, malicious attacks, and random failures. It has been concluded that enhancing the supply of clean energy can significantly contribute to bolstering China's energy technical resilience, while simultaneously addressing climate change concerns. • Network analysis is used to assess China's energy technical resilience. • Energy technical resilience is evaluated regarding robustness, recovery rate, and performance loss. • Energy system robustness significantly increases under carbon neutrality scenario. • Increasing clean energy supply strengthens resilience against shocks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The intensification of global climate change has led to a widespread consensus on carbon reduction, with the power industry being the principal contributor to carbon emissions necessitating an inevitable transition of its energy structure. Concomitantly, the escalating frequency of natural disasters caused by extreme weather presents formidable challenges to both secure power supply and the low-carbon transition of the power system. To fulfill the developmental requirements of a low-carbon power system and address the carbon emission risks imposed by natural disasters, this paper proposes a bi-level model for generation expansion planning (GEP) that incorporates constraints on the carbon emission trajectory and the influence of natural disasters. The planning-level model optimizes investment costs of various generation technologies and energy storage (ES), as well as the overall operational expenses over the planning period, with an objective to minimize them. It incorporates carbon emission trajectory constraints and policy constraints, such as carbon peaking, carbon neutrality and renewable energy (RE) penetration rates, in order to optimize the planning installed capacity of power sources. The operational-level model aims to minimize typical daily operating costs while also simulating power unit outputs in routine and disaster scenarios. A case study is conducted in a disaster-prone province in southern China to analyze the power generation expansion planning and the trajectory of carbon emissions from 2020 to 2060 under different scenarios. The simulation results show that compared to thermal power, the planning scheme mainly focused on RE with ES is better suited to achieve the goal of a low-carbon transition of the power grid. Moreover, after considering natural disasters, the cost and carbon emissions of power system planning are higher, and the risk of carbon emissions increases with the severity of disasters. • A multi-time scale bi-level low-carbon GEP model is proposed. • Natural disaster scenarios and low-carbon policy constraints are considered in the GEP model. • Carbon emission trajectory of the planned power system is estimated and introduced as a constraint into the GEP model. • Evaluation indicators that comprehensively consider low-carbon performance and economic feasibility are proposed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• A CGE model elaborately depicting six CCS technologies was developed. • Impacts of four CCS incentive scenarios on decarbonization pathways were simulated. • CCS can sequester 960 ∼ 1,604 MtCO 2 annually in China by 2060 with policy incentives. • CCS incentives can reduce China's future primary energy demand by 7.7 ∼ 17.4 %. • CCS incentives can increase GDP by 5.64 ∼ 6.59 % compared to no policy scenario. Carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology, considered as a pivotal tool in mitigating climate change within the fossil energy system, particularly in China, has experienced slower development than expected. The exploration of direct incentive policies to facilitate its growth remains relatively underdeveloped. This study developed a hybrid dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to simulate the substantial impacts of CCS incentive policies on China within the context of carbon neutrality target. Two potential incentive policies, carbon emission trading system (ETS) and 45Q tax credit, were simulated, with different sectoral coverage. The results indicate that CCS technologies can reduce carbon emissions by 960 ∼ 1,604 MtCO 2 annually by 2060 through the strategic implementation of these incentive policies. The 45Q tax credit demonstrates its effectiveness in promoting early-stage research and development (R&D) and demonstration of CCS, while the ETS policy facilitates the commercial development of CCS in the later stage of development. By 2060, the implementation of CCS incentive policies could potentially result in 7.7 ∼ 17.4 % reduction in China's primary energy consumption, 71.2 ∼ 82.7 % decrease in the carbon price of ETS and 5.64 ∼ 6.59 % increase in the GDP compared with the no-policy scenario. In addition, the sectoral output in various sectors and the welfare of urban and rural households also increase. This paper provides an important reference for the realization of China's carbon neutrality goal and the model framework can be applied to other countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]