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Understanding changes of soil organic carbon (SOC) in top layers of croplands and their driving factors is a vital prerequisite in decision-making for maintaining sustainable agriculture. However, high-precision estimation of SOC of croplands at regional scale is still an issue to be solved. Based on soil samples, synthetic image of bare soil and geographical data, this paper predicted SOC density of croplands using Random Forest model in the Black Soil Region of Jilin Province, China in 2005 and 2020, and analyzed its influencing factors. Results showed that random forest model that integrates bare soil composite images improve the accuracy and robustness of SOC density prediction. From 2005 to 2020, the total SOC storage in croplands decreased from 89.96 to 82.79 Tg C with an annual decrease of 0.48 Tg C yr−1. The mean value of SOC density of croplands decreased from 3.42 to 3.32 kg/m2, and high values are distributed in middle parts. Changes of SOC represented significant heterogeneity spatially. 62.14% of croplands with SOC density greater than 4.0 kg/m2 decreased significantly, and 38.60% of croplands with SOC density between 2.5 and 3.0 kg/m2 significantly increased. Climatic factors made great contributions to SOC density, however, their relative importance (RI) to SOC density decreased from 44.65% to 37.26% during the study period. Synthetic images of bare soil constituted 23.54% and 26.29% of RI in the SOC density prediction, respectively, and the contribution of each band was quite different. The RIs of topographic and vegetation factors were low but increased significantly from 2005 to 2020. This study can aid local land managers and governmental agencies in assessing carbon sequestration potential and carbon credits, thus contributing to the protection and sustainable use of black soils. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Semi-variable Coefficient Spatial Lag Model (SVC-SLM) not only addresses the "dimension disaster" associated with the Varying Coefficient Spatial Lag Model(VC-SLM), but also overcomes the non-linear problem of the variable coefficient, and fully explores the hidden information of the model. In this paper, INLA is firstly used to estimate the parameters of (SVC-SLM) by using B-spline to deal with the non-parametric terms, and the comparative experimental results show that the INLA algorithm is much better than MCMCINLA in terms of both time efficiency and estimation accuracy. For the problem of identifying the constant coefficient terms in the SVC-SLM, the bootstrap test is given based on the residuals. Taking the PM2.5 data of 31 provinces in mainland China from 2015 to 2020 as an empirical example, parametric, non-parametric, and semi-parametric perspectives establish three models of Spatial Lag Model (SLM), VC-SLM, SVC-SLM, which explore the relationship between the covariate factors and the level of urbanization as well as their impacts on the concentration of PM2.5 in the context of increasing urbanization; among the three models, the SVC-SLM has the smallest values of DIC and WAIC, indicating that the SVC-SLM is optimal. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

China has experienced significant urbanization during the past 40 years, which exerts impacts on regional climates through changing land surface properties. Previous studies mainly focused on the Pearl River Delta, the Yangtze River Delta, and the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei areas, while less attention has been paid to central China. In this paper, the regional climate effects of urbanization around the greater Wuhan area were investigated using the WRF model. High resolution, satellite-derived, impervious datasets were used to generate two realistic scenarios representing urban surface states of the years 1986 and 2018. By comparing the simulation results of two sensitivity experiments from 1 July 2015 to 12 July 2015, the spatial and diurnal changes in surface air temperature, surface skin temperature, and surface energy budget were analyzed. Our results reveal that urban expansion leads to 2 m air temperature and surface skin temperature increases by approximate 0.63 °C and 0.83 °C, respectively. Surface sensible heat flux increases, while latent heat flux decreases, with much greater effects in daytime than nighttime. The planetary boundary layer height (PBLH) increases with its maximum value over 100 m, and a 2 m water vapor mixing ratio decreases with a peak value around −2 g/kg. These findings provide knowledge to improve the understanding of land–atmospheric interactions and pave the way to studying urban expansion effects under future climate change scenarios. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]