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Background: India is a large and populous country where reliable data on headache disorders are relatively scarce. This study in northern India (Delhi and National Capital Territory Region [NCR], including surrounding districts in the States of Haryana, Uttar Pradesh and Rajasthan) continues the series of population-based studies within the Global Campaign against Headache and follows an earlier study, using the same protocol and questionnaire, in the southern State of Karnataka. Methods: This cross-sectional study used the Global Campaign's established methodology. Biologically unrelated Indian nationals aged 18–65 years were included through multistage random sampling in both urban and rural areas of NCR. Interviews at unannounced household visits followed the structured Headache-Attributed Restriction, Disability, Social Handicap and Impaired Participation (HARDSHIP) questionnaire in its original English version or in the validated Hindi version. Demographic enquiry was followed by a neutral headache screening question and diagnostic questions based on the International Classification of Headache Disorders edition 3 (ICHD-3), which focused on each respondent's most bothersome headache. Questions about headache yesterday (HY) enabled estimation of 1-day prevalence. A diagnostic algorithm first identified participants reporting headache on ≥ 15 days/month (H15+), diagnosing probable medication-overuse headache (pMOH) in those also reporting acute medication use on ≥ 15 days/month, and "other H15+" in those not. To all others, the algorithm applied ICHD-3 criteria in the order definite migraine, definite tension-type headache (TTH), probable migraine, probable TTH. Definite and probable diagnoses were combined. Results: Adjusted for age, gender and habitation, 1-year prevalences were 26.3% for migraine, 34.1% for TTH, 3.0% for pMOH and 4.5% for other H15+. Female preponderance was seen in all headache types except TTH: migraine 35.7% vs. 15.1% (aOR = 3.3; p < 0.001); pMOH 4.3% vs. 0.7% (aOR = 5.1; p < 0.001); other H15 + 5.9% vs. 2.3% (aOR = 2.5; p = 0.08). One-day prevalence of (any) headache was 12.0%, based on reported HY. One-day prevalence predicted from 1-year prevalence and mean recalled headache frequency over 3 months was slightly lower (10.5%). Conclusions: The prevalences of migraine and TTH in Delhi and NCR substantially exceed global means. They closely match those in the Karnataka study: migraine 25.2%, TTH 35.1%. We argue that these estimates can reasonably be extrapolated to all India. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ensemble forecasts from multiple models have gained enormous popularity as it provides a more efficient forecast as compared to the individual counterpart. The linear weighted combination method is most widely utilized for its simplicity and efficiency. Despite hard efforts by various researchers, two considerable challenges still exist: (1) Systematic and robust techniques for selecting suitable forecasting models and (2) Techniques to find appropriate combination weights. To address these challenges a novel framework for optimization-based ensemble technique, 'OptiSembleForecasting' has been proposed in this study. The three components of the proposed framework are (a) Principal Component Analysis-based error index, (b) Model Confidence Set algorithm and (c) Optimization techniques. A total of thirteen forecasting models consisting of five deep learning, five machine learning and three stochastic models and twenty optimization techniques have been implemented in the proposed framework. To examine the effectiveness of the proposed technique, wholesale price of three commodities (TOP: Tomato, Onion, and Potato) each with two major markets in India has been considered. The empirical evaluation of the predictive accuracy of different models with that of the proposed techniques has been carried out by means of root mean square error and mean absolute percentage error. The findings of this study demonstrated the superiority of the proposed algorithm. Moreover, a R-package, namely 'OptiSembleForecasting', has been developed to make the implementation of this technique simple and user-friendly. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]