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• Sustainable groundwater development is achievable in Beijing plain. • Substituting groundwater abstraction with transferred surface water has stopped depletion. • Managed aquifer recharge is very effective for sustaining groundwater abstraction. • Climate variation has larger impact on groundwater resources than the anticipated future climate change. To cope with the groundwater depletion problem and achieve sustainable groundwater development, groundwater conservation measures and managed aquifer recharge (MAR) have been implemented worldwide. However, knowledge gaps exit how does the aquifer system respond to these interventions differently and if these interventions are adequate to lead to long-term sustainable groundwater development under future climate change. In Beijing Plain, two measures have been implemented: reduction of groundwater abstraction by substituting groundwater abstraction with transferred surface water and implementation of managed aquifer recharge (MAR) in two major rivers. This study aims to assess how do the shallow and deep aquifers respond to these measures and if these measures can lead to long-term sustainable groundwater development in Beijing Plain under future climate change. A 3-D transient groundwater flow model was calibrated and used to simulate groundwater level and budget changes from 2021 to 2050. The monthly groundwater recharge was estimated using the projected monthly precipitation from three downscaled regional climate models under two scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The results show that declines in groundwater head and storage can be reversed with the combined two measures, thereby contributing to achieve sustainable groundwater development. The reduction of abstractions is a deciding measure to reverse the trend of groundwater depletion, especially in the deep confined aquifers, while large scale MAR schemes can restore the cones of depressions in shallow aquifers and maintain the groundwater abstraction. Climate variation has large impacts on groundwater resources, especially, consecutive dry years can cause rapid groundwater storage depletion. The projected monthly precipitation from 2021 to 2050 is not significantly different from the past. Therefore, the projected future precipitation has minor impacts on groundwater resources in the next 30 years. The findings from the study will support the Beijing municipality to maintain the tight control on groundwater abstraction and to implement large-scale MAR schemes in two rivers. This successful example will encourage managers of other heavily exploited aquifers to take similar measures to achieve sustainable groundwater development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]