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A two-stage process has been developed for the pyrolysis of high-density polyethylene to obtain light olefins, where probable mechanisms for each stage pyrolysis were proposed in our previous study. This work aims to establish molecular-level kinetic models for the first-stage pyrolysis at a lower temperature and for the second-stage pyrolysis at a higher temperature, respectively, to predict the overall reaction performances in accordance to the role of detailed mechanisms. A structure-oriented lumping (SOL) method based molecular-level kinetic model can effectively describe the first-stage pyrolysis, while a detailed molecular-level kinetic model is developed for the second-stage pyrolysis to track the evolutions of all alkanes, olefins, and diolefins, with special focus on the formation of light olefins. The established separate models can achieve the automatic generation of complex reaction networks and present good agreement with experimental data obtained from the first- and second-stage. In addition, the first-stage model indicates that the random scission plays an important role in the pyrolysis process at lower temperatures, while the chain-end scission mechanism dominates the second-stage reaction to produce light olefins at higher temperatures. As a whole, the molecular-level modelling scheme behaves excellently at a wide range of temperature, which provides guidance for upgrading the pyrolysis process. • A molecular level kinetic model is established for the two-stage HDPE pyrolysis. • The reaction network is generated automatically and visualized. • This model achieves excellent agreement with experimental data. • The competition of two scissions and important role of temperature are quantified. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]