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The effects of global climate change and human activities are anticipated to significantly impact ecosystem services (ESs), particularly in urban agglomerations of arid regions. This paper proposes a framework integrating the dynamic Bayesian network (DBN), system dynamics (SD) model, patch generation land use simulation (PLUS) model, and the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) model for predicting land use change and optimizing ESs spatial patterns that is built upon the SSP-RCP scenarios from CMIP6. This framework is applied to the oasis urban agglomeration on the northern slope of the Tianshan Mountains in Xinjiang (UANSTM), China. The findings indicate that both the SD model and PLUS model can accurately forecast the distribution of future land use. The SD model shows a relative error of less than 2.32%, while the PLUS model demonstrates a Kappa coefficient of 0.89. The land use pattern displays obvious spatial heterogeneity under different climate scenarios. The expansion of cultivated land and construction land is the main form of land use change in UANSTM in the future. The DBN model proficiently simulates the interactive relationships between ESs and diverse factors. The classification error rates for net primary productivity (NPP), habitat quality (HQ), water yield (WY), and soil retention (SR) are 20.04%, 3.47%, 4.45%, and 13.42%, respectively. The prediction and diagnosis of DBN determine the optimal ESs development scenario and the optimal ESs region in the study area. It is found that the majority of ESs in UANSTM are predominantly influenced by natural factors with the exception of HQ. The socio-economic development plays a minor role in such urban agglomerations. This study offers significant insights that can contribute to the fields of ecological protection and land use planning in arid urban agglomerations worldwide. • An integrated framework combining DBN, SD, PLUS and InVEST models was proposed. • Impact of natural and socioeconomic factors on ESs was determined under climate scenarios. • The spatial pattern of ESs was optimized and partitioned using DBNs. • ESs in arid oasis urban agglomerations are mainly affected by natural factors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Echinococcosis, which is one of the zoonotic diseases, can threaten human health and hinder the development of animal husbandry seriously. Especially in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region of China, Echinococcosis is regarded as one of the most serious endemic diseases.The number of human Echinococcosis has increased dramatically in the last 10 years, partially due to poor understanding of the transmission dynamics of Echinococcosis and lack of effective control measures of the disease. In this paper, in order to explore effective control and prevention measures we propose a deterministic model to study the transmission dynamics of Echinococcosis in Xinjiang. The results show that the dynamics of the model is completely determined by the basic reproductive number R 0. If , the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable. When , the disease-free equilibrium is unstable, and the endemic equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable. Based on the data reported by Xinjiang Center for Disease Control and Prevention (Xinjiang CDC), the numerical simulation result matches Echinococcosis data well. The model provides an approximate estimate of the basic reproduction number R 0=1.67. This indicates that Echinococcosis is endemic in Xinjiang with the current control measures. Finally, we perform some sensitivity analysis of several model parameters and give some useful comments on controlling the transmission of Echinococcosis. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: In this paper we explore the major, minor and some trace elements of sixty-five glass beads from eighteen oasis sites both north and south of the Taklamakan Desert, the ancient centre of the Silk Routes linking East and West; the samples date from the Warring States period (475–2211 BCE) to the Tang Dynasty (618–907 CE). Using a high-resolution portable XRF spectrometer, with special attention to issues of surface weathering and sample preparation, we obtained quantitative chemical compositional data that, when combined with archaeological context and the technology of bead manufacture, provide the basis for an understanding of both changes in glass type over time, and possible source areas for the Xinjiang glasses. While glass beads at the early sites (1st c. BCE to 4th c. CE) were coming primarily from Kushan-controlled territories in northern India, Pakistan and Afghanistan, with a small contribution from central China, most of the later glass (4th–10th c. CE) is similar to that produced in the Sasanian Empire at such sites as Veh Ardashir in central Iraq. These changes most likely reflect changing cultural and economic conditions in the Silk Road towns. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

In the context of carbon neutrality, the paper uses Super Efficiency Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) to evaluate the level of regional energy efficiency in China, then selects Theil index to analyze the difference and change of regional energy efficiency. The results are as follows: (1) The overall level of energy efficiency in China is relatively low, and the average efficiency level from 2007 to 2019 is 0.568. Among them, Beijing is the highest, at 1.261, and Xinjiang is the lowest, at only 0.205. The energy efficiency of the eastern region is the highest in China: the average is 0.812. The central region is lower than the national average, with the value of 0.534. The lowest energy efficiency is in the western region, which is only 0.349. It can be seen that there are significant differences in regional energy efficiency, and from west to east has increased. (2) The Theil coefficient increased before 2012 and began to show a downward trend in 2013. The difference in the eastern region maintained the smallest downward trend among the three regions. The difference in the central region fluctuated and increased before 2011, and dropped sharply after 2012. In the western region, the coefficient is relatively stable and has not changed significantly. (3) Differences within and between regions in China show an overall downward trend. From the perspective of contribution rate, the difference between regions contributes the most to the overall difference. • We use super-efficiency DEA to measure China's regional energy efficiency. • We use Theil Index to illustrate regional differences in energy efficiency. • We have reached a conclusion that can provide a theoretical reference for policy making. • We compared the magnitude and trend of energy efficiency in various regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]