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Adaptation to climate change requires careful evaluation of infrastructure performance under future climatic extremes. This study demonstrates how a multidisciplinary approach integrating geotechnical engineering, hydrology, and climate science can be employed to quantify site-specific impacts of climate change on geotechnical infrastructure. Specifically, this paper quantifies the effects of changes in future streamflow on the performance of an earthen levee in Sacramento, California, considering multiple modes of failure. The streamflows for historical (1950–2000) and projected (2049–2099) scenarios with different recurrence intervals were derived from routed hydrological simulations driven by bias-corrected global climate models. The historical and future flood levels were then applied in a set of transient coupled finite-element seepage and limit equilibrium slope stability analyses to simulate the levee subjected to extreme streamflow. Variability in hydraulic and mechanical properties of soils was addressed using a Monte Carlo sampling method to evaluate and compare the probability of failure of the levee under different historical and future climate scenarios. Three individual modes (underseepage, uplift, and slope stability) along with lower and upper bounds for the combined mode of failure were examined. The results showed that incorporating future floods into levee failure analysis led to considerable reductions in the mean factor of safety and increases in the levee's probability of failure, suggesting that risk assessment based on historical records can significantly underestimate the levee's failure probability in a warming climate. Despite inherent uncertainties in future projections and substantial variability across climate models, evaluating infrastructure against projected extremes offers insights into their likely performance for the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change adaptation in the infrastructure sector has received increased attention in recent years, but local governments and asset managers frequently find it difficult to identify the most suitable and efficient adaptation options. This paper proposes a framework for assessing the costs and benefits of infrastructure adaptation at the local level. The framework consists of three steps: (1) selecting target infrastructure and adaptation options, (2) identifying climate factors, and (3) performing an economic assessment algorithm simulation. The suggested economic assessment algorithm considers both gradual and extreme impacts of climate change and provides an integrated economic assessment over the lifecycle of the infrastructure. Three representative concentration pathways climate scenarios are used to estimate the cost of future damage and the conditions of the assessed infrastructure. A case study is undertaken examining adaptation of an erosion control system in a mountain watershed with an 85-year analysis period that yields a comprehensive understanding of the application of the suggested framework. This research is expected to guide decision making in prioritizing the most cost-effective adaptation strategies for infrastructure. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate conditions have impacts on performance of infrastructures, and the impacts are expected to increase in the future due to climate change. Future climate conditions should be taken into account in establishing adaptation strategies for infrastructures. However, project-level performance analyses that incorporate climate-change scenarios have not been of major concern in economic assessment. Addressing this issue, this study presents a reliability approach to assess the economic cost and benefit of adapting infrastructure to climate change. Using climate-change scenarios, a deterioration modeling methodology is proposed to reflect the impact of climate conditions on the performance of infrastructure. The gamma process, which has been widely used for modeling monotonic deteriorations, was used within the methodology. Expected damage cost by climate-related risks was also estimated. Decision makers can apply the proposed methodology to the adaptation of various infrastructures under climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]