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Background: Caesarean section is recommended in situations in which vaginal birth presents a greater likelihood of adverse maternal or perinatal outcomes than normal. However, it is associated with a higher risk of complications, especially when performed without a clear medical indication. Since labour attendants have no standardised clinical method to assist in this decision, statistical tools developed based on multiple labour variables may be an alternative. The objective of this paper was to develop and evaluate the accuracy of models for caesarean section prediction using maternal and foetal characteristics collected at admission and through labour. Method: This is a secondary analysis of the World Health Organization's Better Outcomes in Labour Difficulty prospective cohort study in two sub-Saharan African countries. Data were collected from women admitted for labour and childbirth in 13 hospitals in Nigeria as well as Uganda between 2014 and 2015. We applied logistic regression to develop different models to predict caesarean section, based on the time when intrapartum assessment was made. To evaluate discriminatory capacity of the various models, we calculated: area under the curve, diagnostic accuracy, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, sensitivity and specificity. Results: A total of 8957 pregnant women with 12.67% of caesarean births were used for model development. The model based on labour admission characteristics showed an area under the curve of 78.70%, sensitivity of 63.20%, specificity of 78.68% and accuracy of 76.62%. On the other hand, the models that applied intrapartum assessments performed better, with an area under the curve of 93.66%, sensitivity of 80.12%, specificity of 89.26% and accuracy of 88.03%. Conclusion: It is possible to predict the likelihood of intrapartum caesarean section with high accuracy based on labour characteristics and events. However, the accuracy of this prediction is considerably higher when based on information obtained throughout the course of labour. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Maternal death reviews and obstetric audits identify causes and circumstances related to occurrence of a maternal death or serious complication and inform improvements in quality of care. Given Nigeria's high maternal mortality, the lessons learned from past experiences can provide a good evidence base for informed decision making. We aimed to synthesise findings from maternal death reviews and other obstetric audits conducted in Nigeria through a systematic review, seeking to identify common barriers and enabling factors related to the provision of emergency obstetric care. Methods: We searched for maternal death reviews and obstetric care audits reported in the published literature from 2000-2014. A 'best-fit' framework approach was used to extract data using a structured data extraction form. The articles that met the inclusion criteria were assessed using a nine point quality score. Results: Of the 1,841 abstracts and titles at initial screening, 329 full text articles were reviewed and 43 papers fulfilled the inclusion criteria. Four types of barriers were reported related to: transport and referral; health workers; availability of services; and organisational factors. Three elements stand out in Nigeria as contributing to maternal mortality: delays in Caesarean section, unavailability of magnesium sulphate and lack of safe blood transfusion services. Conclusions: Obstetric care reviews and audits are useful activities to undertake and should be promoted by improving the processes used to conduct them, as well as extending their implementation to rural and basic level health facilities and to the community. Urgent areas for quality improvement in obstetric care, even in tertiary and teaching hospitals should focus on organisational factors to reduce delays in conducting Caesarean section and making blood and magnesium sulphate available for all who need these interventions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]