1. COVID-19 school closures and educational achievement gaps in Canada: Lessons from Ontario summer learning research
- Author
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Aurini, Janice and Davies, Scott
- Subjects
Epidemics -- Educational aspects -- Canada ,Academic achievement -- Forecasts and trends ,School closings -- Influence ,Market trend/market analysis ,Anthropology/archeology/folklore ,Sociology and social work - Abstract
The 2020 COVID-19 pandemic closed most Canadian public schools for six consecutive months between March and September. This paper explores possible impacts of that closure on student achievement. Longstanding research suggests that lengthy periods of time out of school generally create losses of literacy and numeracy skills and widen student achievement gaps. New American studies have attributed sizeable learning losses to the COVID-19 closures. In lieu of comparable Canadian data, this paper extrapolates from summer learning research to estimate likely shortfalls in literacy and numeracy skills. We draw on data from 14 cohorts of Ontario primary-grade students collected between 2010 and 2015 in which 3,723 attended summer programs and 12,290 served as controls. Across three plausible scenarios, we use meta analyses and OLS and quintile regression models to predict learning losses of 3.5 and 6.5 months among typically-performing and lower-performing students respectively, and achievement gaps that grow up to 1.5 years among same grade peers. After qualifying these predictions, we recommend that provincial ministries offer targeted supplementary programs during the summer and synchronous instruction in the event of future school closures. La pandemie de COVID-19 de 2020 a ferme la plupart des ecoles publiques canadiennes pendant six mois consecutifs entre mars et septembre. Cet article explore les impacts possibles de cette fermeture sur le rendement des eleves. Les recherches suggerent que lorsque les enfants ne sont pas scolarises pendant de longues periodes, les competences en litteratie et en numeratie diminuent et les ecarts de rendement des eleves se creusent. De nouvelles etudes americaines ont attribue des lacunes d'apprentissage importantes aux fermetures du COVID-19. Au lieu de donnees canadiennes comparables, ce document extrapole a partir de la recherche sur l'apprentissage d'ete pour estimer les lacunes probables en litteratie et en numeratie causees par les fermetures. Nous nous appuyons sur les donnees de 14 cohortes d'eleves du primaire de l'Ontario recueillies entre 2010 et 2015 dans lesquelles 3 723 ont suivi des programmes d'ete et 12 290 ont servi de temoins. Dans trois scenarios plausibles, nous utilisons des meta-analyses et des modeles de regression MCO et quintile pour predire les pertes d'apprentissage de 3,5 et 6.5 mois chez les eleves typiquement et les moins performants respectivement, et les ecarts de rendement qui augmentent jusqu'a 1,5 an chez les pairs de la meme annee. Apres avoir nuance ces previsions, nous recommandons que les ministeres provinciaux offrent des programmes supplementaires cibles pendant l'ete 2021 et au-dela et un enseignement plus synchrone en cas de fermeture future d'ecoles pour compenser ces lacunes., INTRODUCTION: THE IMPACT OF COVID-19 SCHOOL CLOSURES .... [T]he COVID-19 Pandemic is likely to generate the greatest disruption in educational opportunity worldwide in a generation.... It is imperative, for this [...]
- Published
- 2021
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