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Livestock production is affected by climate change, but also contributes to climate change through greenhouse gas emissions. This leads to ambiguity in how livestock are framed in climate and development policy processes. We use the Multiple Streams Framework (MSF) to investigate the role of knowledge brokers in Kenyan livestock and climate change policy processes. We analyse how knowledge brokers deal with ambiguity from different problem and response framings within science-policy interfaces using the case of a project that seeks to inform Kenyan policies relevant to livestock and climate change. We identify ambiguity within the problem stream where actors recognise adaptation and mitigation as dual challenges of livestock and climate change. This ambiguity creates tension between actors but can be strategically deployed to help match the problem and policy streams. Actors use the terms 'climate smart' and 'co-benefits' to link the dual adaptation and mitigation needs. In the political stream, nationally defined priorities and external funding possibilities influence the political will and motivation to adopt identified response options. There are opportunities for knowledge brokers to address the ambiguities and translate knowledge during windows of opportunity when the streams are being coupled, but challenges exist, resulting in slow and inadequate development of policies. This paper makes two contributions to the MSF literature. First, we further refine the concept of knowledge brokers and establish their role across all three streams. Second, we apply the MSF in a lower income country and demonstrate that international organizations must be among the actors considered. • Ambiguity surrounds livestock; they are affected by and contribute to climate change. • Knowledge brokers in Kenya frame issues, offer solutions and influence politics. • International actors shape problem framing and solutions around livestock in Kenya. • The MSF needs to be adapted to apply in developing country contexts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate-induced migration is an increasingly pressing issue in many African regions, as rising temperatures and extreme weather events have caused the displacement of vulnerable populations. This is especially so in Eastern Africa and the Horn of Africa, particularly Kenya and Ethiopia, where extreme weather events have led to rangeland degradation, crop failures, water shortages, and food insecurity. Hence, there is a perceived need to understand these processes better. Against this background, this paper reports on a study investigating the processes associated with climate-induced migration in Kenya and Ethiopia. The research method used consisted of an expert-driven assessment approach, which assesses the causes of climate-induced migration in Kenya and Ethiopia and its human and social implications on local communities. Data were collected from 110 experts residing and working on climate and migration-related issues in Ethiopia and Kenya via e-mail, whose knowledge of the current situation has enabled the identification of some important trends. The results show that climate change is a primary trigger of migration both internally and externally. The high number of migrants, many of whom living within levels of poverty in their home areas is straining resources and services in the receiving regions. Their presence is also leading to increased competition for jobs and resources. Additionally, it has increased urban poverty, as many migrants have little access to living space and health care. This paper provides a welcome addition to the literature in that it lists the causes and implications of climate-induced migration and, by doing so, fosters a better understanding of the current crisis and its implications. The implications of this paper to the overall knowledge of climate change and migration are twofold. First, it highlights the need for governments, international organisations, and other stakeholders better to understand the complex linkages between climate change and migration. Secondly, it shows the usefulness of better recognising how climate change can drive migration and the other factors shaping the decision to migrate. The paper concludes by stating the urgent need for policies and programmes that support climate change-induced migrants. Also, it draws attention to the usefulness of promoting sustainable development in their origin countries and destinations, so that migration is not necessarily perceived as the only response to climate change. A further conclusion is that there is a perceived need for providing access to resources such as education, health care, and livelihood opportunities and establishing mechanisms to ensure a safe and dignified return for those who choose to do so. • Climate change is a significant driver for migration in Kenya and Ethiopia. • Droughts, conflicts, and crop failures are among the key drivers of migration. • Male migration is more prominent than a female one. • Limited access to productive resources leads to outmigration from rural areas. • Lockdowns associated with the COVID-19 pandemic did not cause any major migration. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With the rising threat of climate change, green hydrogen is increasingly seen as the high-capacity energy storage and transport medium of the future. This creates an opportunity for low- and middle-income countries to leverage their high renewable energy potential to produce, use, and export low-cost green hydrogen, creating environmental and economic development benefits. While identifying ideal locations for green hydrogen production is critical for countries when defining their green hydrogen strategies, there has been a paucity of adequate geospatial planning approaches suitable to low- and middle-income countries. It is essential for these countries to identify green hydrogen production sites which match demand to expected use cases such that their strategies are economically sustainable. This paper therefore develops a novel geospatial cost modelling method to optimize the location of green hydrogen production across different use cases, with a focus on suitability to low- and middle-income countries. This method is applied in Kenya to investigate the potential hydrogen supply chain for three use cases: ammonia-based fertilizer, freight transport, and export. We find hydrogen production costs of €3.7–9.9/kg H 2 are currently achievable across Kenya, depending on the production location chosen. The cheapest production locations are identified to the south and south-east of Lake Turkana. We show that ammonia produced in Kenya can be cost-competitive given the current energy crisis and that Kenya could export hydrogen to Rotterdam with costs of €7/kg H 2 , undercutting current market prices regardless of the carrier medium. With expected techno-economic improvements, hydrogen production costs across Kenya could drop to €1.8–3.0/kg H 2 by 2030. [Display omitted] • We develop a novel GIS method to identify least-cost green hydrogen production locations. • This is applied in Kenya for ammonia, freight transport, and export use cases. • Hydrogen production costs of €3.7–9.9/kg H 2 are currently achievable in Kenya. • The cheapest production locations are to the south/south-east of Lake Turkana. • Kenya could export hydrogen and undercut current market prices with any carrier. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Access to resources, both social and material, is central to securing livelihoods. • Persistent drought has called into question male incomes from pastoralism. • Women's growing contributions have enhanced expectations of reciprocity. • Conjugal relationships are being renegotiated in efforts to cope with change. • Understanding the heterogeneity of household relationships is key to adaptation. Access to resources, both material and social, are central elements in responding to social and environmental transition, and adapting to change, yet the ways in which such access is negotiated within and across varying household structures is not well understood. In semi-arid Kenya, persistent drought has made male incomes from pastoralism insecure, and contributed to women's growing engagement with trade, farming and other independent enterprises, for survival. This has, however, raised questions about women's dependence on men for household provisioning, and enhanced expectations of reciprocity in both production and reproduction within households. While demographers note the rise in female headship in sub-Saharan Africa, and female headed households are often the target of policy attention, the situation on the ground is much more complex. Polygamy, separation and consensual unions, multi-generational and multi-locational households, point to a growing diversity in gender and generational relationships, in rights, responsibilities and norms. Based on data from household surveys, focus group discussions and life history interviews with differently positioned women and men within pastoralist communities in northern Kenya, the paper explores the implications of changing household structures beyond headship, in particular the loosening of marriage ties, frequent separation and regrouping, on relational vulnerability and the micro-politics of adaptation in the region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates to what extent and how micro, small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in developing countries are adapting to climate risks. We use a questionnaire survey to collect data from 325 SMEs in the semi-arid regions of Kenya and Senegal and analyze this information to estimate the quality of current adaptation measures, distinguishing between sustainable and unsustainable adaptation . We then study the link between these current adaptation practices and adaptation planning for future climate change. We find that financial barriers are a key reason why firms resort to unsustainable adaptation, while general business support, access to information technology and adaptation assistance encourages sustainable adaptation responses. Engaging in adaptation today also increases the likelihood that a firm is preparing for future climate change. The finding lends support to the strategy of many development agencies who use adaptation to current climate variability as a way of building resilience to future climate change. There is a clear role for public policy in facilitating good adaptation. The ability of firms to respond to climate risks depends in no small measure on factors such as business environment that can be shaped through policy intervention. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: This paper examines the economic impact of climate change on livestock production in Kenya. We estimate a Ricardian model of net livestock incomes and further estimate the marginal impacts of climate change. We also simulate the impact of different climate scenarios on livestock incomes. The Ricardian results show that livestock production in Kenya is highly sensitive to climate change and that there is a non-linear relationship between climate change and livestock productivity. The estimated marginal impacts suggest modest gains from rising temperatures and losses from increased precipitation. The predictions from atmospheric ocean general circulation models suggest that livestock farmers in Kenya are likely to incur heavy losses from global warming. The highest and lowest losses are predicted from the Hadley Centre Coupled model (HADCM) and Parallel Climate Model (PCM) respectively, based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change A2 Special Report on Emissions Scenarios. The paper concludes that in the long term, climate change is likely to lead to increased poverty, vulnerability and loss of livelihoods. Several policy interventions are recommended to counter this impact. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

The terrestrial biosphere is an important global carbon (C) sink, with the potential to drive large positive climate feedbacks. Thus a better understanding of interactions between land use change, climate change and the terrestrial biosphere is crucial in planning future land management options. Climate change has the potential to alter terrestrial C storage since changes in temperature, precipitation and carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations could affect net primary production (NPP), C inputs to soil, and soil C decomposition rates. Climate change could also act as a driver for land use change, thus further altering terrestrial C fluxes. The net balance of these different effects varies considerably between regions and hence the case studies presented in this paper (the GEFSOC project countries Kenya, Jordan, Brazil, and India) provide a unique opportunity to study climate impacts on terrestrial C storage. This paper first presents predicted changes in climate for the four case study countries from a coupled climate-C cycle Global Circulation Model (HadCM3LC), followed by predicted changes in vegetation type, NPP and soil C storage. These very coarse assessments provide an initial estimate of large-scale effects. A more detailed study of climate impacts on soil C storage in the Brazilian Amazon is provided as an example application of the GEFSOC system. Interestingly in the four cases studied here precipitation seems to control the sign of the soil C changes under climate change with wetter conditions resulting in higher soil C stocks and drier conditions in lower soil C stocks, presumably because increased NPP in wetter conditions here will override any increase in respiration. In contrast, globally, it seems to be temperature that controls changes in C stocks under climate change. Even if there is a slight increase in precipitation globally, a decrease in C stocks is predicted—in other words, the regional response to precipitation differs from the global response. The reason for this may be that whilst temperature increases under climate change were predicted everywhere, the nature of precipitation changes varies greatly between regions. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

• Women face unique risks associated with food insecurity and climate change. • Changing childbearing may be an explicit livelihood strategy. • Women respond to growing season conditions by adjusting fertility behaviors. • Ensuring availability of diverse family planning services is a priority. Agricultural production and household food security are hypothesized to play a critical role connecting climate change to downstream effects on women's health, especially in communities dependent on rainfed agriculture. Seasonal variability in agriculture strains food and income resources and makes it a challenging time for households to manage a pregnancy or afford a new child. Yet, there are few direct assessments of the role locally varying agricultural quality plays on women's health, especially reproductive health. In this paper we build on and integrate ideas from past studies focused on climate change and growing season quality in low-income countries with those on reproductive health to examine how variation in local seasonal agricultural quality relates to childbearing goals and family planning use in three countries in sub-Saharan Africa: Burkina Faso, Kenya, and Uganda. We use rich, spatially referenced data from the Performance Monitoring for Action (PMA) individual surveys with detailed information on childbearing preferences and family planning decisions. Building on recent advances in remote monitoring of seasonal agriculture, we construct multiple vegetation measures capturing different dimensions of growing season conditions across varying time frames. Results for the Kenya sample indicate that if the recent growing season is better a woman is more likely to want a child in the future. In Uganda, when the growing season conditions are better, women prefer to shorten the time until their next birth and are also more likely to discontinue using family planning. Additional analyses reveal the importance of education and birth spacing in moderating these findings. Overall, our findings suggest that, in some settings, women strategically respond to growing season conditions by adjusting fertility aspirations or family planning use. This study also highlights the importance of operationalizing agriculture in nuanced ways that align with women's lives to better understand how women are impacted by and respond to seasonal climate conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Low levels of soil moisture makes rain water harvesting and saving technologies important interventions for water supply and food production in arid and semi-arids lands of Kenya. Despite much research around this theme, factors affecting utilisation of these technologies by farmers have not been well understood and the low adoption and adaptation levels of these beneficial technologies remains a challenge. This paper extends this dimension with emphasis on Tharaka South sub-county where water scarcity, unreliable rainfall and soil water stress is a major cause of household food insecurity. Farm and social data were collected using a cross-sectional survey design targeting a total of 351 household heads. Data was analysed using descriptive statistics and logistic regression. The utilization of in situ rainwater harvesting and saving technologies was higher for trashlines (73%) as compared to micro-catchments, Zai pits (26%) and Negarims (13%). Socio-economic characteristics that were positively and significantly associated with Zai pit utilisation included household size (p < 0.01), training in Zai pits (p < 0.002), while total farm size (p < 0.01) and land tenure (p < 0.01) showed negative co-efficients. Both formal and informal sources of training were important tools in disseminating rain-water harvesting and saving technologies. The study concluded that farmer age, household size, farm size, farming history, training, and formal education were important factors which influenced utilisation of rain water harvesting and saving technologies in Tharaka sub-county. Specific approaches are needed to scale-up resource-intensive technologies ( Fanya juu , Zai pits , and Negarims ) compared to less resource-intensive technologies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Cleaner production is preventive and should be integrated into every production process. Despite its huge contribution to climate change, cleaner production faces many adoption and implementation hurdles which make it harder for organizations to adopt the practice and reap the benefits that come with it. This paper highlights these hindrances, and the various motivations that organizations could take advantage of in their urge to achieve cleaner production. This research assesses the importance of regulations and finances in adopting cleaner production. Also, the research evaluates the role of firms' need to control environmental costs, improve relations with the community, keep up with competitors and achieve a competitive advantage in adopting cleaner technologies. The study uses a probit model to analyze data collected from 852 representative firms in Kenya. This study finds that regulatory constraints and financial resources limit firms. The need to control environmental costs, improve relations with the community, keep up with competitors and achieve a competitive advantage motivate firms to adopt cleaner technologies. These findings are particularly important to policy makers at national and firm levels. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In recent years, Conservation Agriculture has been promoted in sub-Saharan Africa as an alternative farming system for smallholder farmers to address declining soil productivity and climate change. CA has to be tailored to the agro-ecological and socio-economic context of smallholder farmers to achieve impact. But even if there is a ‘perfect fit’, the farmer still has his or her own reasons to choose whether to switch to CA or not. This paper explores the reasons why farmers choose for CA or conventional farming, using the Reasoned Action Approach. Based on findings from a recent study in Kenya among CA farmer field school members and their neighbours, the farmer’s decision making is analysed by distinguishing three elements in the decision-making process: the farmer’s attitude towards CA, the farmer’s perception of the social norms towards CA, and the farmer’s perceived behavioural control (PBC) over practicing CA. Strong evidence was found that attitude and PBC are contributing to intentions to adopt CA practices. It is concluded that experimentation and learning are key to support intentions and adoption of CA, because they contribute both to realistic attitudes towards CA and an improved perceived behavioural control. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Despite the growth in work linking climate change and national level development agendas, there has been limited attention to their political economy. These processes mediate the winners, losers and potential trade-offs between different goals, and the political and institutional factors which enable or inhibit integration across different policy areas. This paper applies a political economy analysis to case studies on low carbon energy in Kenya and carbon forestry in Mozambique. In examining the intersection of climate and development policy, we demonstrate the critical importance of politics, power and interests when climate-motivated initiatives encounter wider and more complex national policy contexts, which strongly influence the prospects of achieving integrated climate policy and development goals in practice. We advance the following arguments: First , understanding both the informal nature and historical embeddedness of decision making around key issue areas and resource sectors of relevance to climate change policy is vital to engaging actually existing politics; why actors hold the positions they do and how they make decisions in practice. Second , we need to understand and engage with the interests, power relations and policy networks that will shape the prospects of realising climate policy goals; acting as barriers in some cases and as vehicles for change in others. Third , by looking at the ways in which common global drivers have very different impacts upon climate change policy once refracted through national levels institutions and policy processes, it is easier to understand the potential and limits of translating global policy into local practice. And fourth , climate change and development outcomes, and the associated trade-offs, look very different depending on how they are framed, who frames them and in which actor coalitions. Understanding these can inform the levers of change and power to be navigated, and with whom to engage in order to address climate change and development goals. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

East African marine waters, particularly those impacted by the East African Coastal Current, have a reputation for data sparsity that presents significant challenges to efforts to develop, implement, and operate effective management and governance structures to sustainably manage fisheries and the marine environment. As many coastal communities are dependent upon the ocean for livelihoods and sustenance marine resources are a central component of regional food security. However, the growing challenge of increased food insecurity in response to growing human populations, increased pressures on marine resources and the impacts of climate change is significant and improved knowledge about the marine environment is urgently required to better support decision making efforts to address this challenge. In this introductory paper we present the key findings from a series of observational, numerical and socioeconomic studies addressing issues facing marine food security in the coastal regions of Tanzania and Kenya. [Display omitted] • Editorial to accompany special issue on East African Coastal Current. • Focus on fisheries, marine food security and climate change impacts. • Summarises results from physical and social science surveys. • Describes challenges related to use of marine robotics. • Includes studies that range from pelagic to mesophotic to deep-water environments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: The rural population of semi-arid lands in Kenya face multiple challenges that result from population growth, poor markets, land use and climatic changes. In particular, subsistence oriented farmers face various risks and opportunities in their attempt to secure their livelihoods. This paper presents an analysis on how livelihood assets and strategies of smallholders in Laikipia County, Kenya, have changed within the last decade and discusses the implications for development interventions. The analysis is based on bi-temporal data from 170 semi-structured household interviews in 1997 and a follow-up survey of 30 households conducted in 2010. Well-being indicators were developed and livelihood portfolios compared. The results show a striking persistence in low asset endowment for the majority of smallholders from an aggregated perspective, whereas transitions into and out of better livelihood conditions become evident from a household perspective. The investment in, and accumulation of, conventional buffer or productive assets, such as grain stocks, livestock or land, does not shield households from adverse shocks and stresses as smallholders were shown to easily slip back into poverty. Household portfolios display particular constraints for smallholders in expanding natural resource related activities and a substantial decrease in livestock numbers. While off-farm activities could possibly increase well-being, the prevailing low income levels and high insecurity for the majority who are engaged in off-farm employment, limits the ability to increase livelihood assets in the area. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: This paper presents an analysis of the Total Electron Content (TEC) derived from the International GNSS Service receiver (formerly IGS) at Malindi (2.9°S,40.1°E), Kenya for the periods 2004–2006 during the declining phase of solar cycle 23. The diurnal, monthly and seasonal variations of the TEC are compared with TEC from the latest International Reference Ionosphere model (IRI-2007). The GPS–TEC exhibits features such as an equatorial noon time dip, semi-annual variations, Equatorial Ionization Anomaly and day-to-day variability. The lowest GPS–TEC values are observed near the June solstice and September equinox whereas largest values are observed near the March equinox and December solstice. The mean GPS–TEC values show a minimum at 03:00 UT and a peak value at about 10:00 UT. These results are compared with the TEC derived from IRI-2007 using the NeQuick option for the topside electron density (IRI–TEC). Seasonal mean hourly averages show that IRI-2007 model TEC values are too high for all the seasons. The high prediction primarily occur during daytime hours till around midnight hours local time for all the seasons, with the highest percentage deviation in TEC of more 90% seen in September equinox and lowest percentage deviation in TEC of less than 20% seen in March equinox. Unlike the GPS–TEC, the IRI–TEC does not respond to geomagnetic storms and does overestimate TEC during the recovery phase of the storm. While the modeled and observed data do correlate so well, we note that IRI-2007 model is strongly overestimating the equatorial ion fountain effect during the descending phase of solar cycle, and this could be the reason for the very high TEC estimations. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Climate change presents one of the greatest challenges in urban development planning, yet leadership from planning can help society grapple with this challenge. Success in planning is especially important in coastal cities, where urbanization is heavily influenced by the coastline, and development planning processes have to take into consideration the socio-economic as well as ecological reasons why cities were located at the coast. This paper investigates the possibilities of and impediments to an integrated city-level planning framework that is responsive to climate change, using the case of the East African coastal city of Mombasa. It contends that both the principle of subsidiarity as well as the established law give the municipal government the necessary jurisdiction over the baseline issues underlying city management, which through stakeholder engagement, can be leveraged to facilitate an integrated climate change-responsive planning. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: This paper presents a quantitative ecohydrological framework for predicting regional distribution patterns of woody species in dryland ecosystems. The framework is based on an existing stochastic model for the daily mass balance of water that represents the interactions between soils, climate, and vegetation. Individual species selection is based on an optimality trade-off hypothesis, which states that dryland vegetation patterns are constrained by maximization of water use and simultaneous minimization of water stress. The relative importance of water use and stress avoidance to the overall fitness of three Acacia species is determined from the heterogeneous basin, the Upper Ewaso Ng’iro river basin, of the central Kenya highlands. The model results indicate that overall fitness is more strongly influenced by water use than stress avoidance but that consideration of both stress avoidance and water use is critical to predicting basin-scale patterns of species distribution. We identify a linear trend in the frequency and intensity of storms with the same annual total using a basin-wide gauge precipitation dataset. After calibration, we apply the basin average linear trends in time for average rain per storm and storm arrival rates. The model results indicate the upslope migration of two species, Acacia tortilis and Acacia xanthophloea to areas with higher total rainfall. Lastly, we explore the modeled changes of species cover in the basin influenced by changes in rainfall total holding growing season rainfall variability constant and changes in growing season rainfall variability holding total rainfall constant. We find that changes in dryland species distribution patterns and relative abundance may be as sensitive to growing season rainfall variability as they are to changes in total rainfall amounts. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Current carbon accounting methodologies do not accommodate activities that involve emissions reductions from both land-use change and energy production. This paper analyzes the climate change mitigation potential of charcoal production in East Africa by examining the impact of changing both land management and technology. Current production in a major charcoal producing region of Kenya where charcoal is made as a by-product of land clearance for commercial grain production is modeled as the “business-as-usual” scenario. Alternative production systems are proposed based on coppice management of native or exotic trees. Improved kilns are also considered. Changes in aboveground, belowground, and soil carbon are modeled and two distinct baseline assessments are analyzed: one is based on a fixed area of land and one is based on the quantity of non-renewable fuel that is displaced by project activities. The magnitude of carbon emissions reductions varies depending on land management as well as the choice of carbonization technology. However, these variations are smaller than the variations arising from the choice of baseline methodology. The fixed-land baseline yields annualized carbon emission reductions equivalent to 0.5–2.8tons per year (ty−1) with no change in production technology and 0.7–3.5ty−1 with improved kilns. In contrast, the baseline defined by the quantity of displaced non-renewable fuel is 2–6 times larger, yielding carbon emissions reductions of 1.4–12.9ty−1 with no change in production technology and 3.2–20.4ty−1 with improved kilns. The results demonstrate the choice of baseline, often a political rather than scientific decision, is critical in assessing carbon emissions reductions. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: This paper measures the economic impact of climate on crops in Kenya. We use cross-sectional data on climate, hydrological, soil and household level data for a sample of 816 households. We estimate a seasonal Ricardian model to assess the impact of climate on net crop revenue per acre. The results show that climate affects crop productivity. There is a non-linear relationship between temperature and revenue on one hand and between precipitation and revenue on the other. Estimated marginal impacts suggest that global warming is harmful for crop productivity. Predictions from global circulation models confirm that global warming will have a substantial impact on net crop revenue in Kenya. The results also show that the temperature component of global warming is much more important than precipitation. Findings call for monitoring of climate change and dissemination of information to farmers to encourage adaptations to climate change. Improved management and conservation of available water resources, water harvesting and recycling of wastewater could generate water for irrigation purposes especially in the arid and semi-arid areas. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Climate change adaptation requires understanding of complex social ecological systems (SESs). One source of uncertainty in complex SESs is ambiguity, defined as the range and variety of existing perceptions in and of an SES, which are considered equally valid, resulting in a lack of a unique or single system understanding. Current modelling practices that acknowledge the presence of ambiguity in SESs focus on finding consensus with stakeholders; however, advanced methods for explicitly representing and aggregating ambiguity in SESs are underdeveloped. Moreover, understanding the influences of ambiguity on SES representation is limited. This paper demonstrates the presence and range of ambiguities in endogenous and exogenous system drivers and internal relationships based on individual fuzzy cognitive maps derived from stakeholder perceptions of climate change adaptation in Kenya and introduces an ambiguity based modelling process. Our results indicate that acknowledging ambiguity fundamentally changes SES representation and more advanced methods are required. • Ambiguity is an important aspect of social ecological system understanding. • Fuzzy cognitive maps elucidate a range of ambiguities among stakeholders. • Ambiguity based aggregation was used to quantify ambiguity. • We found the greatest ambiguity in the presence (or lack of) of relationships. • More advanced ambiguity based modelling practices are needed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]